The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s a message from Facebook:

I got this during the Broncos-Texans game. I picked Denver. The Broncos were down 15-7, but came back and won 18-15. Naturally, I didn’t get a response saying, “My bad, you were right all along!”

Instead…

Apparently, coming back from a one-score deficit is lucky in this guy’s mind. That’s just the natural flow of the game.

I also can’t believe he’s using the Bears cover to determine if I’m lucky. Cincinnati was able to come back from down 14 because of an onside kick recovery and a negated defensive touchdown. The fact that the Bears were even in a position to lose was unlucky. But not in this delusional mind.

Last one from this guy:

Apparently not. I guess I can’t get everything right.

Here’s another person – an old friend, in fact – talking about the same game:

John Capricotti is back! He finally completed his chores and is able to post on social media. Congrats on getting all your chores done, John!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s shocking, but the Panthers are 5-4. Their record is a complete fluke, but there’s no denying that they’ve at least found something with Rico Dowdle. Though we’ve called him Rico Doodle on our live streams, Dowdle has been excellent since replacing the injured Chuba Hubbard. He trampled over Green Bay’s defense last week, helping the Panthers to pull a gargantuan upset.

Dowdle doesn’t have the best matchup this week, given that the Saints are better against the run than the pass. However, New Orleans is just 15th versus the run, so there will be an opportunity for Dowdle to gain significant yardage to make Bryce Young’s life easier.

I wasn’t bullish on Young’s outlook last week because he was coming off a high-ankle sprain, but he’ll be in a better position to succeed this week. The Saints have a horrible aerial defense, thanks to sketchy secondary play and a pass rush that is ranked in the bottom 10 of pressure rate. The Panthers are missing some offensive linemen, but the Saints don’t exactly have the personnel to exploit this liability.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints wanted to get a look at Tyler Shough last week, given that they need to know what they have in the 40th-overall pick with the 2026 NFL Draft upcoming in six months. Shough didn’t get much of an opportunity, however, because the Rams controlled the clock for 44 minutes.

From what we saw out of Shough, he made some impressive downfield throws, but also was responsible for some poor passes as well. He didn’t have very good pass protection in front of him, as his injury-ravaged offensive line didn’t match up well against the Rams’ ferocious pass rush. Shough will have more of an opportunity this week because the Panthers rank second-to-last in pressure rate.

It’s not completely rosy for the Saints, as Shough won’t have the luxury of a strong rushing attack setting up short-yardage opportunities for him. Spencer Rattler was able to enjoy his best games when he had Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller picking up significant yardage versus poor run defenses, but this isn’t that sort of matchup. Aside from games against the Bills and Patriots, the Panthers have handled opposing rushing attacks rather well since Week 2.

RECAP: We’ve seen a couple of these “Group F at Group D” games this season. In Week 2, the Russell Wilson-led Giants went into Dallas, and two weeks ago, the Jets traveled to Cincinnati. In both instances, the Group D host was favored by a spread close to a touchdown, and in both instances, the underdog covered. The Jets even won outright.

The Panthers have a solid record, but they’re not good enough to be favored by more than a field goal against anyone, save perhaps for the Titans. Of their five wins this year, three of them have been by exactly a field goal. One came via a touchdown, while the other was the 30-0 game in which the Falcons laid a complete egg. If the Panthers win this game, it’s likely going to be by three points.

The thing is, I’m not even convinced the Panthers will win this game. The Saints are certainly live dogs. They’re 1-8, but they’ve faced only one team worse than Group C this year. That would be the Group D Jaxson Dart-led Giants, whom the Saints defeated several weeks ago. Otherwise, every else the Saints have battled is in Group A-C. The Panthers, conversely, have had the luxury of beating two Group F teams (Jets, Dolphins).

If the Saints and Panthers swapped their schedules, I think their records would be very close. I don’t think the Saints would be 5-4, but they’d maybe have two or three wins, while the Panthers would be 3-6, or so. Given that, as well as the fact that the Panthers are coming off such a huge upset, the Saints look like a promising selection this week. I wouldn’t go nuts with it, but I’m willing to bet two or three units on the Group F visitor.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Rashid Shaheed is gone, but I still think the Saints are the play. A team as bad as the Panthers should not be favored by 5.5 points over anyone, save for the Titans.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tetairoa McMillan showed up on the injury report with a hamstring injury. He was limited in Friday’s practice instead of being a DNP, so I’m not too worried. I still like the Saints for a couple of units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game. I was hoping we’d get a viable +6 line at some point, but that hasn’t happened. The best line is +5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Panthers are a bad team coming off a huge upset win.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Panthers -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Panthers -3.5.

Computer Model: Panthers -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Tons on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 75% (84,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

History: Saints have won 13 of the last 19 meetings.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Slight chance of thunderstorms, 68 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s a message from Facebook:

I got this during the Broncos-Texans game. I picked Denver. The Broncos were down 15-7, but came back and won 18-15. Naturally, I didn’t get a response saying, “My bad, you were right all along!”

Instead…

Apparently, coming back from a one-score deficit is lucky in this guy’s mind. That’s just the natural flow of the game.

I also can’t believe he’s using the Bears cover to determine if I’m lucky. Cincinnati was able to come back from down 14 because of an onside kick recovery and a negated defensive touchdown. The fact that the Bears were even in a position to lose was unlucky. But not in this delusional mind.

Last one from this guy:

Apparently not. I guess I can’t get everything right.

Here’s another person – an old friend, in fact – talking about the same game:

John Capricotti is back! He finally completed his chores and is able to post on social media. Congrats on getting all your chores done, John!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s shocking, but the Panthers are 5-4. Their record is a complete fluke, but there’s no denying that they’ve at least found something with Rico Dowdle. Though we’ve called him Rico Doodle on our live streams, Dowdle has been excellent since replacing the injured Chuba Hubbard. He trampled over Green Bay’s defense last week, helping the Panthers to pull a gargantuan upset.

Dowdle doesn’t have the best matchup this week, given that the Saints are better against the run than the pass. However, New Orleans is just 15th versus the run, so there will be an opportunity for Dowdle to gain significant yardage to make Bryce Young’s life easier.

I wasn’t bullish on Young’s outlook last week because he was coming off a high-ankle sprain, but he’ll be in a better position to succeed this week. The Saints have a horrible aerial defense, thanks to sketchy secondary play and a pass rush that is ranked in the bottom 10 of pressure rate. The Panthers are missing some offensive linemen, but the Saints don’t exactly have the personnel to exploit this liability.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints wanted to get a look at Tyler Shough last week, given that they need to know what they have in the 40th-overall pick with the 2026 NFL Draft upcoming in six months. Shough didn’t get much of an opportunity, however, because the Rams controlled the clock for 44 minutes.

From what we saw out of Shough, he made some impressive downfield throws, but also was responsible for some poor passes as well. He didn’t have very good pass protection in front of him, as his injury-ravaged offensive line didn’t match up well against the Rams’ ferocious pass rush. Shough will have more of an opportunity this week because the Panthers rank second-to-last in pressure rate.

It’s not completely rosy for the Saints, as Shough won’t have the luxury of a strong rushing attack setting up short-yardage opportunities for him. Spencer Rattler was able to enjoy his best games when he had Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller picking up significant yardage versus poor run defenses, but this isn’t that sort of matchup. Aside from games against the Bills and Patriots, the Panthers have handled opposing rushing attacks rather well since Week 2.

RECAP: We’ve seen a couple of these “Group F at Group D” games this season. In Week 2, the Russell Wilson-led Giants went into Dallas, and two weeks ago, the Jets traveled to Cincinnati. In both instances, the Group D host was favored by a spread close to a touchdown, and in both instances, the underdog covered. The Jets even won outright.

The Panthers have a solid record, but they’re not good enough to be favored by more than a field goal against anyone, save perhaps for the Titans. Of their five wins this year, three of them have been by exactly a field goal. One came via a touchdown, while the other was the 30-0 game in which the Falcons laid a complete egg. If the Panthers win this game, it’s likely going to be by three points.

The thing is, I’m not even convinced the Panthers will win this game. The Saints are certainly live dogs. They’re 1-8, but they’ve faced only one team worse than Group C this year. That would be the Group D Jaxson Dart-led Giants, whom the Saints defeated several weeks ago. Otherwise, every else the Saints have battled is in Group A-C. The Panthers, conversely, have had the luxury of beating two Group F teams (Jets, Dolphins).

If the Saints and Panthers swapped their schedules, I think their records would be very close. I don’t think the Saints would be 5-4, but they’d maybe have two or three wins, while the Panthers would be 3-6, or so. Given that, as well as the fact that the Panthers are coming off such a huge upset, the Saints look like a promising selection this week. I wouldn’t go nuts with it, but I’m willing to bet two or three units on the Group F visitor.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Rashid Shaheed is gone, but I still think the Saints are the play. A team as bad as the Panthers should not be favored by 5.5 points over anyone, save for the Titans.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tetairoa McMillan showed up on the injury report with a hamstring injury. He was limited in Friday’s practice instead of being a DNP, so I’m not too worried. I still like the Saints for a couple of units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game. I was hoping we’d get a viable +6 line at some point, but that hasn’t happened. The best line is +5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Panthers are a bad team coming off a huge upset win.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Panthers -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Panthers -3.5.

Computer Model: Panthers -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Tons on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 75% (84,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

History: Saints have won 13 of the last 19 meetings.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Slight chance of thunderstorms, 68 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.