NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2024): 7-7-1 (-$975)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2024): 6-7-1 (-$1,275)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 6-6-1 (-$1,370)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2024): 11-4-1 (+$2,395)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2024): 8-7-1 (+$930)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2024): 7-8-1 (+$310)
2024 NFL Picks: 124-117-10 (-$2,900)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.
Go to Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games
NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17 Early Games
Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)
Line: Chiefs by 2.5. Total: 44.
Wednesday, Dec. 25, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.
You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.
Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!
Week 16 Analysis: We had a winning Week 16 because we hit our December NFL Pick of the Month. However, it wasn’t a great week. I made a huge mistake with a three-unit pick, and we got unlucky with a two-unit play on the Eagles where Jalen Hurts left with a concussion after four pass attempts. I also completely missed out on two obvious plays with the Falcons and Dolphins, which really bothers me. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:
Bengals, 8 units (win): The inept Browns came through for us with two turnovers in the red zone. Thank you for tanking, Cleveland!
Lions, 5 units (win): This was an easier win than Cincinnati. The Lions were in an obvious bounce-back spot against a far-inferior opponent.
Seahawks, 5 units (push): This was a back-and-forth game where the Seahawks outgained the Vikings in total yards (361-298) and yards per play (6.0-4.8), but the Vikings ended up winning with a push. It was a bit frustrating not to get this one, but at least it wasn’t a loss.
Buccaneers, 3 units (loss): This was an absolutely horrible pick. The Buccaneers were in a terrible spot off a blowout win, and I even said repeatedly that I didn’t know how to properly evaluate them. I should have had three-unit plays on the Falcons and Dolphins instead.
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It’s truly remarkable that Patrick Mahomes was able to rush for a touchdown on the opening drive versus Houston. Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain just six days earlier, yet he was as nimble as ever. It was almost as if the injury never occurred. Unreal.
Mahomes will obviously be healthy for this game, and he’ll have an improved receiving corps at his disposal. That’s because Marquise Brown will be playing his second game with the team. Brown returned Saturday and was a solid contributor. With Brown available, and Xavier Worthy showing improvement, Mahomes suddenly has some nice weapons. The Steelers can be beaten by outside receivers, so this is looking like a decent edge for Kansas City.
While the receiving corps will be improved, the Chiefs still need to figure out their left tackle situation. D.J. Humphries has missed the past two games, and Kansas City will be hoping he returns so Mahomes can avoid T.J. Watt’s pressure at all. Humphries can’t exactly stop Watt, but he’ll do a much better job than the other bums the Chiefs have used on the blind side.
PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers also have issues offensively, as they’ve struggled on this side of the ball in recent weeks. The primary reason for that has been George Pickens’ absence. Pickens being out has removed any sort of play-making threat in the receiving corps. Russell Wilson, as a result, has had to target the likes of Calvin Austin, Van Jefferson, and Mike Williams.
The Steelers will need Pickens to return to have any sort of chance. The problem is that this game is just four days over the previous one, so Pickens may not be ready to play. And even if he is, there’s no telling if he’ll be 100 percent. It seems likely that the Steelers will be stagnant again.
Pittsburgh won’t be able to threaten the Chiefs with the run either. Kansas City is excellent at stopping the rush, as Joe Mixon just learned this past Saturday.
RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games (and short-week games like this one). One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.
The Steelers are a good team, but the Chiefs have the potential to be a great team. That hasn’t been the case for most of the season when Kansas City has beaten the likes of the Panthers and Raiders by three points or fewer, but things seem to be changing. The Chiefs have been victorious over their previous two foes by more than a touchdown. With Brown serving as an upgraded receiving threat, and Worthy progressing, the Chiefs won’t be so limited offensively.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, will be limited offensively if Pickens doesn’t play. Assuming he’s out again, how can you not like the Chiefs? They’re the better team, and they’ll be motivated because they can wrap up the No. 1 seed with a win. Good teams tend to thrive when given motivational tasks like winning the division or claiming the No. 1 seed, and that will definitely apply to the Chiefs this week. I will be betting Kansas City for a few units if Pickens is sidelined.
Our Week 17 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.
The Chiefs can wrap up the No. 1 seed with a win.
The Spread. Edge: None.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -3.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -2.5.
Computer Model: Chiefs -2.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 58% (40,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
Chiefs -2.5 (0-3 Units)
Over 44 (0 Units)
Baltimore Ravens (10-5) at Houston Texans (9-6)
Line: Ravens by 5.5. Total: 46.5.
Wednesday, Dec. 25, 4:30 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.
My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens seem to have a great matchup in this game that they didn’t possess last week. Derrick Henry seemed to be in a tough spot against the Steelers’ stout run defense. Despite this, he trampled them quite easily, rushing for 162 yards on just 24 carries. Had he scored a touchdown, he would’ve posted a massive fantasy performance.
Henry’s matchup is even better this week. The Texans are far worse against the run than the Steelers. Henry should have a great game this week, which will make life easy for Lamar Jackson.
Then again, Jackson didn’t exactly need a boost in this game. The Texans generate great pressure on the quarterback, but they also miss a ton of tackles. They’re in the top three in missed tackles this year, and they’ve demonstrated that they can’t contain mobile quarterbacks, so bringing down Jackson and all of his threats will be very difficult for them.
HOUSTON OFFENSE: How the Texans will fare on this side of the ball is fairly easy to project. Inept offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik runs at the highest rate on first and second down. He even ran on first down last week when he barely had any time remaining in the game. He has a one-track mind, and all he wants to do is run.
Joe Mixon is great, so this strategy works often. However, it backfires when the opponent is terrific against the run. The Chiefs qualified last week, and the Ravens do even more so. Baltimore completely dismantles opposing ground attacks, so Mixon once again won’t find any room.
This will only put more stress on C.J. Stroud, who miraculously converts third-and-long situations despite Slowik. He’ll be able to do that with Nico Collins on occasion, but with Tank Dell sidelined, Stroud will only be able to do so much, even against a troubled Baltimore cornerback group.
RECAP: I’m copy-pasting this paragraph from the prior capsule because it applies: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games (and short-week games like this one). One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.
There’s no doubt that the Ravens are the better team. Whether or not they’ll be focused is the question. Yes, they need to win to secure a chance to win the division, but given that they crushed the Texans in the playoffs, they may take them lightly. This is also an obvious revenge spot for Houston.
Everyone seems to be on the Ravens, and I don’t blame them, given how bad Houston has been. However, I believe that the Ravens are an overrated team because of their poor pass defense, and that poor pass defense could allow the Texans to achieve a back-door cover if needed. I would back Baltimore if I had to, but I have no interest in betting this game, especially at this inflated point spread.
The Motivation. Edge: Texans.
Revenge game for the Texans. The Ravens could be flat off their win against the Steelers.
The Spread. Edge: Texans.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -3.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.
Computer Model: Ravens -4.5.
The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
Sharp action on the Ravens.
Percentage of money on Baltimore: 64% (31,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Ravens -5.5 (0 Units)
Under 46.5 (0 Units)
Seattle Seahawks (8-7) at Chicago Bears (4-11)
Line: Seahawks by 3.5. Total: 42.5.
Thursday, Dec. 26, 8:15 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.
VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 41-35 ATS through 15 weeks.
Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:
The public won their top two plays, but were 3-3 overall. The public is now 44-38.
Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:
Only three publicly backed sides for now. We’ll get some more later in the week, I’m sure.
SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks put forth a valiant effort against the Vikings. They were down early, but managed to come back and eventually lead before losing at the end. While Geno Smith was picked twice, he made some amazing throws into Minnesota’s talented defense.
Smith will have an easier time in this game because he’ll be able to lean on the run. That wasn’t the case last week because the Vikings are stout when it comes to defending ground attacks. The Bears are poor at doing so, meaning Kenneth Walker and/or Zach Charbonnet will thrive.
Smith will be able to operate out of short-yardage situations. He’ll need the help because the Bears have quality defenders in their secondary. Chicago plays very well against slot receivers, so Jaxon Smith-Njigba has his work cut out for him.
CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears won’t have nearly as much success running the ball. D’Andre Swift has faced a number of tough matchups lately, and this is another one. Seattle struggled versus the run earlier in the season, but has been much better in that regard since Leonard Williams’ health improved.
Caleb Williams will once again have to do all the work with his receivers, which will mean more turnovers and mistakes. Williams was on a roll once Chicago fired his offensive coordinator, but has taken a big step backward following Matt Eberflus’ firing. This is because the interim offensive coordinator was promoted to interim head coach, leaving the Bears with no real offensive coordinator. They’ve made countless mistakes in the three games since.
The Seahawks just had issues defending Minnesota’s receivers, so I imagine Chicago’s wideouts will make some big plays. However, the Vikings didn’t make mistakes last week, and unless the Bears suddenly are coached better, they will commit some blunders to ruin drives and give Seattle some free points.
RECAP: I’m once again copy-pasting this paragraph from the prior capsule because it applies: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.
There’s a debate as to whether or not this game means anything for the Seahawks. If you pop the results into the NFL playoff calculator – just do a Google search if you’re not familiar with it – you’ll see that the result of this contest has no bearing on whether or not the Seahawks win the division. What it comes down to is the Rams’ result versus the Cardinals. If the Rams beat the Cardinals, they will win the division. If the Rams lose, the Seahawks will win the division with a victory in Week 18, regardless of the outcome of this matchup.
I said that there’s a debate about the meaning of this game because there’s a tiny chance this game means something because of a strength-of-victory tie-breaker. These are just mere percentage points, so I don’t think that’s a huge selling point for the Seahawks to be motivated. They’re better off resting their starters and gearing up for Week 18.
This is a major bummer. I’d love to fade the Bears because they have an overwhelmed interim head coach and no offensive coordinator operating on a short work week, but this is not the time to do so because the Seahawks really have nothing at stake in this game.
The Motivation. Edge: Bears.
This game means nothing to Seattle.
The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -6.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -1.5.
Computer Model: Seahawks -9.5.
The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
Most of the money on the Seahawks.
Percentage of money on Seattle: 77% (10,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Bears.
Bears +3.5 (0 Units)
Under 42.5 (0 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) at New England Patriots (3-12)
Line: Chargers by 4. Total: 42.5.
Saturday, Dec. 28, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.
HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:
We had an entertaining night on Twitter following the Packers-Saints game. I posted a link to the recap, citing, “Total domination, and Christian Watson gets hurt, of course.” We had Watson’s over receiving yards prop, so he naturally got hurt, of course, to ruin our bet. Just like Mike Evans got hurt as well on Sunday night, of course, because we’ve been running poorly with injury luck.
This didn’t sit too well with some weirdo named Tazim Wajed Wajed, who posted the following:
I later learned that this guy is somehow related to Christian Watson. I’m not sure if he’s his bad-touch uncle, or something, but he seems to be clueless on the situation. Before I discovered that this guy is somehow related to Watson, I quote tweeted him:
It’s silly of this Tazim guy to overreact without understanding the context. Anyone following my content knew that I had a play on Watson, and that I was understandably frustrated upon losing money. Tazim had no knowledge of this, so he assumed that I meant something else. He should have asked me what I meant by “of course,” but he reacted on instinct without considering the nuance.
I’m not sure why Tazim has a following, but he does. Stupid people latched on to what he said, as you can see here:
Surprise, surprise, a Ukrainian flag. I called these people the “retard brigade.” I received more of these:
It’s quite astonishing how many brainless idiots out there who are just following Tazim’s lead without considering context or nuance. It’s like moths to a flame. They are just reacting emotionally without thinking whatsoever.
By the way, a friend of mine recognized Ben Herbst as a classmate from his high school. Bill Cosby is an alumnus of my high school. I’d rather have Cosby as a fellow alumnus than that Herbst buffoon.
Here are a few interactions with some of these clowns. This is “Packing and Rolling:”
It’s now been 12-plus hours, and I’m still waiting to find out. When will I find out!?
Here is Mike Scanlan, who is very racist:
Mike Scanlan believes that as a white man, he is so superior to Native Americans that he can tell them how they’re supposed to think and feel. People like him are the worst.
Speaking of low-lifes, here’s someone who hates the mentally challenged:
Poor guy. Still hasn’t recovered from November.
Last one:
It’s crazy to me that these people didn’t once stop and think, “Hey, why did he write, ‘of course?’ What was he referring to? Maybe I should ask before getting mad for no reason.” Then again, these are simpletons whose IQ is, as posted, hovering around 60, so they are not capable of having such an inner monologue.
SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers had been sluggish offensively leading up to last week’s Thursday night affair. However, they bounced back with a strong performance, particularly in the second half. Even Gus Edwards looked good against Denver’s usually tough run defense.
The Patriots struggle to stop the run, which has to be music to Jim Harbaugh’s ears. Harbaugh would love to just hand the ball off to Edwards 40 times. I’m not extremely bullish on Edwards’ projection in this game because he’s not a good player, but there’s no denying how bad the Patriots are versus ground attacks.
Edwards’ running will obviously help Justin Herbert, who will be able to utilize a tremendous matchup in this game. The Patriots are woeful against slot receivers and tight ends. This is terrific for Ladd McConkey, who is healthy now. Will Dissly could return to take advantage of the other liability.
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Chargers have also been weak against the run lately, but that has had to do with an injury. Denzel Perryman’s absence has been huge. Perryman is a stout run defender, so the Chargers will be thrilled if he returns, which is a strong possibility on an extended work week.
If the Chargers can improve against the run with Perryman’s potential return, it’s going to be very difficult for the Patriots to move the ball. Drake Maye has shown flashes this year, but that has mostly been in garbage time, a la Blake Bortles in 2015.
Maye has some major potential, but the biggest problem for him right now is pass protection. His offensive line is horrible. With that in mind, it’s not exactly ideal that he’ll be going up against Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack in the penultimate game of his rookie season.
RECAP: How dumb is the NFL schedule-maker? Why would they put the Chargers on at 1 p.m.? If I’m the Chargers, I’m pretty pissed about this.
Luckily for the Chargers, Jim Harbaugh is excellent in these spots. Harbaugh is 9-1 against the spread in 1 p.m. East Coast games, with the only loss being to the Steelers in Week 3 this year when Herbert left the game with an injury.
I like the Chargers to cover this spread. They’ve demonstrated that they can beat down lesser opponents. Against teams in Group D or Group F this year, the Chargers have wins by 12 (Raiders), 17 (Browns), 10 (Titans), 4 (Falcons), 23 (Panthers), and 18 (Broncos). Conversely, the Patriots have been walloped by the Group A and Group B teams they’ve battled, with the exception of the Bills last week. Aside from that game, they’ve lost by 17 (49ers), 6 (Rams), and 19 (Dolphins). The Patriots were able to keep the Bills game close because Buffalo was incredibly flat following its huge victory at Detroit.
The Chargers won’t cover this spread if they’re also flat, but given that they have a chance to clinch playoff berth with this victory, I think they’ll be motivated.
The Motivation. Edge: Chargers.
The Chargers will be angry about having to play early.
The Spread. Edge: Chargers.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -6.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -5.5.
Computer Model: Chargers -1.5.
The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.
Lots of action on the Chargers.
Percentage of money on San Angeles: 78% (9,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
Chargers -4 (3 Units)
Over 42.5 (0 Units)
Denver Broncos (9-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 49.5.
Saturday, Dec. 28, 4:30 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
Contest Announcement time!
Our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!
Also, our Survivor Contest has returned as well. It’s free to enter, and you can win $350!
CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Broncos are known for having a great defense, but their stop unit hasn’t been so great lately. They surrendered a ton of passing yards to Jameis Winston on a recent Monday night. Jonathan Taylor ripped off a big run against them, and the Colts would have prevailed if Taylor didn’t foolishly drop the ball shy of the goal line. And last week, Gus Edwards went nuts against them in the second half.
There are certainly some cracks in the foundation for Joe Burrow to exploit, especially if No. 2 cornerback Riley Moss is sidelined again. Having a talented second cornerback is obviously crucial against the Bengals when Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are healthy. Even if Moss returns, there’s no telling if he’ll be 100 percent in his first game back in action.
It’s usually very difficult to run on the Broncos, but as mentioned, Taylor and Edwards have done it recently. I wouldn’t completely count on Chase Brown having a great game on the ground, but he’ll be able to pick up some yards as a receiver out of the backfield.
DENVER OFFENSE: Cincinnati’s biggest issue in this game won’t be scoring on Denver’s defense. It’ll be stopping the Broncos offense. As great as Cincinnati’s scoring unit is, its defense is just as bad.
The Bengals have some serious problems in their secondary. They’ve had immense difficulty defending No. 1 receivers. This didn’t surface last week because Dorian Thompson-Robinson was the quarterback, but Bo Nix has thrived while targeting Courtland Sutton. Nix should be able to deliver some deep throws to his other wideouts as well.
The Broncos aren’t very good at running the ball, but they’ll have some success on the ground this week. We just saw Jerome Ford burst for a 66-yard run last week, so Denver should be able to generate some explosive plays form its mediocre running backs.
RECAP: I wish I had a strong take on this game, but I don’t. This is because I’ve been opposed to both teams for a while. I’ve called the Broncos overrated because they’ve beaten absolutely no one. Six of their nine wins have come against teams in Group D or Group F. Their other three victories were all fluky or circumstantial. They got by the Colts because of Taylor’s dropped ball. They beat the Buccaneers, who were completely unfocused after getting revenge on the Lions. And they squeaked by the Jets, who had a London game next.
The Bengals, meanwhile, have an explosive offense, but absolutely no defense. Russell Wilson threw for more than 400 yards against them. As long as they’re battling a functional quarterback – i.e. not Thompson-Robinson – their defense can easily be exposed.
I think these teams are about even. If you give the Bengals 1.5 points for being at home, and then subtract a half point because of Denver’s extra rest, the line should be -1. Yet, the spread is -3. I will be on the Broncos because of this, but I have no desire to place any money on this overrated Denver squad.
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: Broncos.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -1.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -3.5.
Computer Model: Pick.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
Percentage of money on Denver: 58% (7,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Broncos +3 (0 Units)
Under 49.5 (0 Units)
Arizona Cardinals (7-8) at Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
Line: Rams by 6.5. Total: 48.
Saturday, Dec. 28, 8:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Rams.
Contest Announcement time!
Our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!
If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!
Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!
LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Arizona’s defense was utterly pathetic last week. The unit allowed Bryce Young to have the best quarterback rating in the entire league last week. The same Bryce Young who was given up for dead when he was benched after two weeks earlier this season.
If the Cardinals were that bad defensively against the Panthers, how will they possibly handle the Rams? They shut down Los Angeles back in Week 2, but Puka Nacua was sidelined, and Cooper Kupp got hurt during the game. The Rams were also missing personnel on their offensive line. The Cardinals have the fifth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, so they’re going to have an extremely difficult time rattling Matthew Stafford.
It’s unlikely that the Cardinals will be able to stop the run either. We just saw Chuba Hubbard bulldoze them in an overtime loss. Arizona is 23rd in adjusted EPA run defense, so this wasn’t much of a surprise. Kyren Williams figures to have a monstrous performance this week.
ARIZONA OFFENSE: Speaking of monstrous performances from running backs, James Conner was enjoying one last week until he injured his knee in the third quarter. Conner was knocked out of the game, so with no Trey Benson being available, the Cardinals couldn’t run the ball at all. This obviously hurt their game plan in the second half.
With this game utterly meaningless, there’s no reason for Arizona to rush back any of its injured running backs. It’ll likely be Michael Carter again, which means that the Rams’ mediocre run defense won’t be exposed.
Conner wasn’t the only major injury the Cardinals suffered last week. They also lost Jonah Williams, which was especially painful because they were already missing Paris Johnson. It remains to be seen if the two tackles will play this Saturday night. If not, Kyler Murray will be harassed often by the league’s 10th-ranked pass rush. Murray will be able to connect with Trey McBride often, but that’ll be the only source of offense.
RECAP: This is a very difficult game to handicap because the result will be determined by Arizona’s mental state. The Cardinals, of course, were just eliminated from the playoffs. They could be a complete no-show as a result. Or, they could be professionals and try hard like the Cowboys did on Sunday night.
If the Cardinals play hard, you have to like the line value attached to them. They were +3.5 on the advance spread, and now they’re +6.5. This line move is only warranted if the Cardinals give up, which is possible. However, we recently saw Arizona go toe to toe with the Vikings on the road, leading 19-6 before losing by a point.
Conversely, if the Cardinals give up, this will obviously be a lopsided affair. The only thing we can do now is perhaps listen for some quotes from Arizona players that will indicate how they will handle this game. If I had to guess, I believe the Cardinals will be a no-show, especially because they just lost in overtime, but I could definitely be wrong about that.
The Motivation. Edge: Rams.
The Cardinals were just eliminated from the playoffs.
The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -6.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.5.
Computer Model: Rams -4.5.
The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
Slight lean on the Rams.
Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 64% (7,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Rams -6.5 (0 Units)
Over 48 (0 Units)
Indianapolis Colts (7-8) at New York Giants (2-13)
Line: Colts by 8. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Colts.
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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It would have been nice had Jonathan Taylor not dropped the ball shy of the goal line at Denver. We lost $300 plus the vig because of it, but at least Taylor made amends for it last week while scoring three touchdowns against the Titans. Taylor was tremendous and awarded anyone who drafted him in best ball.
Taylor should be able to carry his fantasy owners to the championship this week. The Giants are weak against the run, so Taylor will bulldoze through their defense. The Giants will also have to worry about Anthony Richardson’s runs as well.
Richardson’s passing is a different story. Richardson is woefully inaccurate, so New York’s secondary won’t be very threatened despite Josh Downs’ return last week.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: While the Colts are great at running the ball, they’re also very weak to ground attacks. The Titans could have exposed this if Mason Rudolph hadn’t been so busy throwing interceptions, which put the team into a 31-7 hole at the beginning of the third quarter.
The Giants will attempt to exploit this liability, but they may have the same issues that the Titans did with Rudolph. Drew Lock was a disaster last week, heaving two pick-sixes against the Falcons. Lock could do the same thing this week, especially if the Colts are able to get back top cornerback JuJu Brents from injury.
To be fair to Lock, he doesn’t have much of a chance. His offensive line is in shambles. The Colts are in the middle of the pack in pressure rate, so they’ll be able to rattle Lock.
RECAP: This spread is absurd. The Colts were -6.5 on the advance line, and now they’ve moved across the No. 2 key number of seven to -8. All because of two results from last week.
The Colts have not beaten a team by more than eight all year, so who are they to be favored by eight on the road against anyone? Look, I get it. The Giants are horrible. And they’re tanking. However, we’ve seen them fight to keep some games close. They got the back-door touchdown against the Saints, for example. They also kept the Dallas result to seven on Thanksgiving.
Don’t get me wrong, though. I’m not advocating for a bet on the Giants because they’re the worst team in the NFL. They could easily give the Colts two free touchdowns like they did to Atlanta last week. However, I think betting on the Colts at -8 is a bad move. This is a stay-away for me.
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: Giants.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -7.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -6.5.
Computer Model: Colts -7.5.
The Vegas. Edge: Giants.
No surprise here.
Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 73% (8,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Giants +8 (0 Units)
Under 40.5 (0 Units)
Las Vegas Raiders (3-12) at New Orleans Saints (5-10)
Line: Raiders by 1. Total: 37.5.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.
I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!
NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints looked absolutely terrible on Monday night. Spencer Rattler was horrible, turning the ball over on multiple occasions, including once on a rare trip into the red zone. With all of his top weapons sidelined, Rattler didn’t have much of a chance.
There’s a possibility Rattler will have at least one of Chris Olave or Marquez Valdes-Scantling back this week. Granted, the latter isn’t very good, but at least he’s a real player, unlike Kevin Austin or Jordan Mims, whoever the hell they are. Olave’s return would be huge, as it would give the Saints a legitimate chance to really attack the Raiders’ secondary.
Regardless, the Saints will not get shut out again. The Raiders, missing Maxx Crosby, Christian Wilkins and Malcolm Koonce, have issues on this side of the ball. They’re especially poor against tight ends, so Rattler figures to have success targeting Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau.
LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders didn’t have much of a functional offense when everyone saw them play on prime time against the Falcons, but that changed last week in the wake of Aidan O’Connell’s return to action. O’Connell isn’t very good, but he’s substantially superior compared to Desmond Ridder.
O’Connell had better luck connecting with Brock Bowers, who just enjoyed a terrific game. Bowers figures to dominate once again, given that the Saints struggle against tight ends.
The Raiders will have some success running the ball, but it won’t be the same, dominant showing that the Packers had Monday night. Las Vegas’ rushing attack is obviously nowhere near as potent as Green Bay’s.
RECAP: It’s interesting that the Saints were -2.5 on the advance line, and now, because of the Raiders’ win over the Jaguars, and the shutout on Monday night, New Orleans is now a one-point underdog.
The line movement makes New Orleans appealing, as does the spot. The Saints were completely embarrassed on Monday night, so I’ll be surprised if they don’t bounce back with a better performance this week. Conversely, the Raiders are coming off a win. Bad teams have issues sustaining success, so this is definitely a time to fade Las Vegas.
I’m going to be on the Saints. I wish I had more confidence in them to make a larger wager than a two-unit bet, but I can’t place a lot of money on a Group F team, even if they’re battling another Group F team.
The Motivation. Edge: Saints.
The Saints were just shut out on national TV. The Raiders are coming off a win.
The Spread. Edge: Saints.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -1.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -2.5.
Computer Model: Pick.
The Vegas. Edge: Saints.
Slight lean on the Raiders.
Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 64% (3,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Saints.
Saints +1 (2 Units)
Under 37.5 (0 Units)
Tennessee Titans (3-12) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
Line: Jaguars by 1. Total: 40.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Titans.
Video of the Week: Two weeks ago, I posted a video about the actors of Game of Thrones answering questions. This past summer, I made a video about the show, and how I would fix the final two seasons:
What do you think about my choice to be on the Iron Throne at the end?
TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I played Mason Rudolph in my single-entry DraftKings lineup last week. You can imagine how stupid I felt when Rudolph fired multiple interceptions against the Colts, giving Indianapolis a 38-7 lead midway through the third quarter. Fortunately, Rudolph came through in garbage time to get me over the cash line.
Rudolph should play better in this game. It’s all about the pressure because the Titans don’t pass block very well. The Colts were able to exploit this with their solid pass rush. The Jaguars, conversely, have the second-worst pressure rate in the NFL. Rudolph will have a much cleaner pocket this week, so he’ll be able to connect with Calvin Ridley, who will want revenge against his former team.
Rudolph also will be able to lean on the run. This wasn’t possible last week because of the early deficit, but the Jaguars are unlikely to obtain that sort of a scoring advantage. Tony Pollard will be able to exploit a poor run defense.
JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I was shocked by how well Jonathan Taylor ran against the Titans last week. Sure, he was determined to redeem himself after screwing up against the Broncos, but Tennessee is ordinarily stout against the run.
Given how embarrassed the Titans were last week, I believe it’ll be their turn to show some fortitude. They’ll want to redeem themselves, so I suspect they’ll perform well against the run this Sunday. Then again, it’s not like they have to stop a tremendous rushing attack, or anything.
Even if the Jaguars can’t run, they’ll still have some explosive plays from Brian Thomas Jr. The Titans have some issues in the secondary, so stopping Thomas will be an issue. However, Mac Jones is inept, so he could be the quarterback committing turnovers this time.
RECAP: On the surface, this is sort of looks like the Raiders-Jaguars game from last week. I had no interest in betting either side. The Raiders and Jaguars were two Group F teams battling against each other, so there was no edge of any sort.
This, however, is a bit different because I have the Titans as a Group D team. They embarrassed themselves last week, but did so on the road against a Group C team. This is a far easier opponent for them. And I suspect that they’ll play hard in this game because they were blown out this past Sunday before garbage time. Plus, they lost to the Jaguars a few weeks ago when they blew a small lead in the second half in the wake of Will Levis hurting his shoulder.
This is definitely not one of my favorite picks, but I like the Titans enough to make a small wager on them. They’re the better team with some motivation, and we’re getting points, or rather a point with them.
The Motivation. Edge: Titans.
Tennessee’s defense was embarrassed last week.
The Spread. Edge: None.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -2.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -1.5.
Computer Model: Jaguars -4.5.
The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
Sharp money on the Titans.
Percentage of money on Tennessee: 68% (3,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Titans.
Titans +1 (2 Units)
Under 40 (0 Units)
New York Jets (4-11) at Buffalo Bills (12-3)
Line: Bills by 9.5. Total: 47.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Bills.
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Oh, and my other book is still available as well:
In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: As someone commented on our YouTube show, “Leave it to Aaron Rodgers to suddenly play his best once the Jets were eliminated.” Rodgers has certainly played his best following a slow start. He had some poor performances at times during the season, but he’s been great lately. The Jets scored just nine points last week, but they had multiple long drives stall in the red zone.
Rodgers would ordinarily have a tough matchup against the Bills, but Buffalo has some injuries at the moment, including cluster injuries at safety. This could allow Rodgers to once again connect with Davante Adams, who has been on fire of late.
The Bills, however, have been stronger against the run lately. This will be key against Breece Hall, who has seemingly recovered from a prior injury. He once again looked explosive last week, but the Bills could limit him.
BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Jets likely won’t have the same success against Buffalo’s rushing attack. In the first meeting between these teams, James Cook was sidelined, but it didn’t matter. Ray Davis bulldozed through New York’s beleaguered ground defense.
Cook and Davis should continue to run well, picking up where Kyren Williams left off against the Jets last week. This will make things easier for Josh Allen, who misfired on just six occasions in the first meeting between these teams. New York’s secondary has been a huge disappointment this year, so Allen should once again have success through the air.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Allen didn’t run very much, however. Allen tends to scramble a lot in big games, but considering that the Bills are double-digit favorites, I would expect more of a conservative approach from Allen unless he’s in fourth-quarter comeback mode.
RECAP: The Jets have had a humbling season in which their Super Bowl aspirations went up in smoke. They couldn’t even match the record they had last year with Zach Wilson. They’re one of the most disappointing teams of our lifetime.
This, however, is all the Jets have left. This is their Super Bowl. They will put forth a ton of effort into this game.
Ironically, this game may not mean much to the Bills. If the Chiefs win on Christmas, they cannot obtain the No. 1 seed. They can lose the No. 2 seed to the Ravens, but they can prevent that from happening by beating the Patriots in Week 18. At the very least, the Bills may rest some of their banged-up players.
I like the Jets for the motivational angle. Also, this line is a bit too high. It’s -10, but I made this -8.5. The EPA numbers are even more bearish on the Bills, projecting this line at -3.5.
The Motivation. Edge: Jets.
The Bills may not have anything to play for. This is the Jets’ Super Bowl.
The Spread. Edge: Jets.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -8.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -10.
Computer Model: Bills -3.5.
The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
Slight lean on the Bills.
Percentage of money on Buffalo: 63% (8,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Jets.
Jets +9.5 (3 Units)
Over 47 (0 Units)
Carolina Panthers (4-11) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
Line: Buccaneers by 8. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.
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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers were able to move the chains against the Cowboys, so their scoring unit isn’t primarily to blame for the loss. Then again, Mike Evans was in and out of the lineup in the fourth quarter because he got banged up, of course.
Still, the Buccaneers accumulated 410 net yards and 5.9 yards per play, mostly via the run. They moved the chains so well via their running backs, primarily with Bucky Irving. The talented rookie figures to have another big game, given that Carolina is woeful against ground attacks.
The Panthers are better at stopping the pass, solely because of their improved pass rush. They’ve been able to get to the quarterback well since D.J. Wonnum’s return from injury. However, they still have issues against No. 1 receivers, so Evans’ health will be crucial in a matchup that he’s dominated over the years.
CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s insane that Bryce Young had the highest quarterback rating in the NFL last week. It’s almost as if we’ve fallen asleep and awakened in some bizarre parallel universe. Arizona’s defense couldn’t stop the beleaguered Young.
Young should continue to perform well. He just did well in this matchup recently, taking the Buccaneers to overtime. Plus, Tampa Bay just had issues keeping Cooper Rush from torching them last week. Rush went up and down the field on the Buccaneers, so why wouldn’t Young be able to do the same?
The one thing the Buccaneers do well on this side of the ball is clamp down on the run. Young was able to lean on Chuba Hubbard during the upset victory over the Cardinals, but that won’t be an option this Sunday.
RECAP: I don’t have a good read on the Buccaneers at all. I thought they were a Group C team this entire time, but then they absolutely dismantled the Chargers. I thought about upgrading them to Group B with Jalen McMillan coming on as a viable replacement for Chris Godwin, but then they lost to the Cowboys on Sunday night.
If the Buccaneers are a Group C team – i.e. average – then this spread is way too high because an average team should not be favored by eight points over a Group D (below average) team. However, if the Buccaneers are a Group B team, then you could argue that this spread is correct, or even a bit too low.
I will say this: The motivational angle clearly favors the Buccaneers. They’re coming off a loss on national TV, so they’re bound to play better this week. Meanwhile, the Panthers are coming off a win, which is a fade signal because bad teams struggle to sustain success.
I’m going to side with the Buccaneers despite this unappealing point spread. I’m not sure how much I’ll be betting on them just yet, but I do like that they’re the superior team with the motivational advantage.
The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.
The Panthers are a bad team coming off a win. The Buccaneers lost on national TV.
The Spread. Edge: Panthers.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -4.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -8.5.
Computer Model: Buccaneers -7.5.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
Percentage of money on Carolina: 58% (7,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Panthers.
Buccaneers -8 (TBA Units)
Over 49.5 (0 Units)
Dallas Cowboys (7-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)
Line: Eagles by 9.5. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.
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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Jalen Hurts should have never given the thumbs up to the official. That was a dead giveaway that he was concussed. As my dad often points out, Hurts seldom smiles or shows any signs of positivity, so the NFL instantly knew that Hurts’ brain was scrambled.
It’s unclear if Hurts will be able to return for this game. If he can play, the Eagles will have an easy time deploying Saquon Barkley. The Cowboys, as the Buccaneers demonstrated on Sunday night, can be gashed by opposing running backs, whether that’s on the ground or through the air. Barkley is obviously capable of triumphing in both areas. His ability to generate chunks of yardage will make things easy for Hurts, who will have to avoid Micah Parsons and the rest of the Dallas pass rush.
If Hurts is unavailable, it’s not even clear who would start because Kenny Pickett got hurt toward the end of Sunday’s game. It could be Tanner McKee, who might actually be an upgrade over the anemic Pickett. Regardless, both Philadelphia quarterbacks will be overwhelmed against what’s been one of the top defenses in the NFL since Parsons returned to action.
DALLAS OFFENSE: Speaking of backup quarterbacks, Cooper Rush has improved markedly since what we saw from him in his first couple of starts. He was utterly atrocious against the Eagles and Texans, but he’s gotten so much better lately.
Then again, it’s fair to question the competition. The Buccaneers, Panthers, and Bengals, Rush’s previous three opponents, have some of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. That’s not the case for the Eagles despite what we saw in Washington last week. Philadelphia’s secondary has been great during the second half of the season, and I expect the group to rebound from last week’s performance.
Rush won’t be able to turn to Rico Dowdle for help. The Eagles have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. They have, however, given up significant yardage to slot receivers, so that’ll spell trouble versus CeeDee Lamb.
RECAP: The best bets you can make in the NFL is when the superior team has a better motivational angle, and you’re getting a discount with them. That’s what we’re getting here. The Eagles, a Group A team, are vastly superior to the Group D Cowboys. They’re also coming off a loss, so they’ll be motivated, whereas the Cowboys will have trouble sustaining success as a bad team coming off consecutive victories.
Furthermore, we’re getting a spread discount with the Eagles, based on last week’s results. The Eagles were -11.5 on the advance spread, and yet they’re now -9.5. My line is Philadelphia -13, so I love this value.
Obviously, there’s concern with Hurts’ concussion. If he doesn’t play, it could be an injured Kenny Pickett or Tanner McKee. If so, I’ll adjust this selection. I also don’t like that Hurts could be playing following a concussion, which is often a bearish proposition, but I think this is an instance where the rest of the team is just so much better than the opposition that it may not matter, much like in last year’s Saints victory over the Giants when Derek Carr returned from a concussion.
The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.
The Eagles are coming off a loss. The Cowboys are a bad team coming off a win.
The Spread. Edge: Eagles.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -13.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -11.5.
Computer Model: Eagles -4.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 51% (6,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Eagles -9.5 (5 Units)
Over 41.5 (0 Units)
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
NFL Picks Week 17 – Late Games
Comments on the 2024 NFL Season’s Games and Picks
NFL Picks - Sept. 11
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 7
2024 NFL Mock Draft - July 25
NFL Power Rankings - June 2
Review Walt’s Past Record Picking Games
On the bottom half of our NFL Weekly Lander page is the history of picks Walt maintains. Walt’s Results
