NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2023 – Late Games

Christian McCaffrey
NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2023): 6-8-1 (-$2,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2023): 5-10-1 (-$1,295)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2023): 5-9 (-$935)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2023): 7-6 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2023): 5-9 ($0)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2023): 13-2-1 (+$1,960)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2023): 6-7 (-$115)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2023): 7-7-1 (+$740)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$120)
2023 NFL Picks: 112-113-9 (-$6,200)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

If you’re looking to bet legally, you can get the best sportsbook promos where you’ll get hundreds of dollars in free wagers if you sign up using the links on this page.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 24, 11:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 16 NFL Picks – Early Games

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16 Late Games

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
Line: Jaguars by 1.5. Total: 43.

Sunday, Dec. 24, 4:05 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

A Safety and a Field Goal

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: We begin with the Jaguars because it’s unclear who will start at quarterback. Trevor Lawrence entered concussion protocol after the Baltimore game, which was surprising. Players have had difficulty getting cleared from concussion protocol this year in just one week, but it has been done on occasion.

Lawrence’s presence will be enormous for Jacksonville’s chances of winning this game because he’ll be needed to exploit the Tampa Bay secondary. The Buccaneers have been terrible against the pass all year, but C.J. Beathard won’t be able to fully exploit this liability, especially with Christian Kirk out and Zay Jones banged up.

Beathard won’t be able to lean on Travis Etienne at all either. The Buccaneers are stout versus the rush, so Etienne won’t get much on the ground.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: There aren’t any concerns with the Buccaneers’ passing attack. Baker Mayfield has been on fire lately, especially with Chris Godwin returning from the dead. Godwin had been terrible all year, but he has been more productive out of nowhere during the past two weeks.

Mayfield and his receivers will stay hot in this matchup. The Jaguars also have one of the worst aerial defenses in the NFL, as they’ve allowed Jake Browning and Joe Flacco to put together some amazing performances lately. They won’t be able to stop the Buccaneers at all.

Like Jacksonville, Tampa Bay won’t be able to get much on the ground. As bad as the Jaguars are versus the pass, they’re stellar at stopping the run. However, White still figures to have a positive performance because Jacksonville surrenders the third-most receiving yards to opposing backs.

RECAP: Here’s another game where we can’t properly handicap until we know the status of the quarterback. Lawrence’s presence will be crucial for the Jaguars to win this game because they’ll need him to attack Tampa’s weakness, which is the secondary. I don’t have faith that Beathard will be able to do the same.

Check back later for more updates. For now, I’m going to pencil in the Buccaneers because of their ability to throw on the Jaguars, who also have severe issues defending the pass.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s still early in the week, but Trevor Lawrence missed Wednesday’s practice. The next update will be crucial, so stay tuned for that.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’d like to say Trevor Lawrence will probably miss this game after being DNP-DNP-limited with a concussion, but he returned right away from a high ankle sprain, so if he really is like Wolverine, he’ll be able to play. Either way, I’m likely to side with the Jaguars as a fade of an NFC South team playing outside the division.

PLAYER PROPS: Jacksonville has been getting killed by tight ends all year. Cade Otton has performed well against similar defenses. I like his over 2.5 receptions -103 at Caesars.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I think I’d have interest in betting the Jaguars for a small amount, but there’s no guarantee that Trevor Lawrence is healthy.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The only injury news is that Zay Jones is out. I still lean toward the Jaguars, but don’t love them enough to bet them. The sharps don’t like either side. If you like Jacksonville, -1.5 -108 is the best line at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None. Calculated Spread: Jaguars -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -2.5.

Computer Model: Jaguars -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 54% (128,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

  • Road Team is 131-90 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.
  • Jaguars are 60-105 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
  • Jaguars are 18-51 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.
  • Buccaneers are 38-70 ATS at home in the previous 108 instances.
  • Buccaneers are 10-31 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.
  • Opening Line: Jaguars -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Chance of rain, 75 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

  • Week 16 NFL Pick: Jaguars 27, Buccaneers 24
    Jaguars -1.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Over 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Cade Otton over 2.5 receptions -103 (1 Unit) – Caesars — Incorrect; -$105
    Buccaneers 30, Jaguars 12

    Dallas Cowboys (10-4) at Miami Dolphins (10-4)
    Line: Dolphins by 1.5. Total: 48.

    Sunday, Dec. 24, 4:25 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

    Some featured NFL Mock Drafts in the MDB:

    Macerelli M NFL Mock Draft

    NoHeroes94 NFL Mock Draft

    Gxd333 NFL Mock Draft

    TepZepi88 NFL Mock Draft

    DALLAS OFFENSE: The Dolphins crushed the Jets last week in a game where I was way off. We hit most of our top plays last week – still can’t get over that blocked extra point in the Redskins game – but the one game that wasn’t close was the Jets and their blowout loss at the hands of the Dolphins as seven-point dogs.

    While Tua Tagovailoa threw well in that game, the primary catalyst for Miami’s domination over the Jets was the Dolphins’ pass rush against the Jets’ horrific offensive line. Zach Wilson never had time to throw and was ultimately concussed. Dak Prescott may face similar issues in this game. Prescott is often protected very well, but that’s not the case at the moment because All-Pro guard Zack Martin got hurt last week. The Cowboys couldn’t block the Bills at all without Martin and will be confronted with similar issues again this Sunday if Martin is sidelined.

    Another problem for the Cowboys is that their receivers will be going up against a Miami secondary that received a huge injection of talent since Jalen Ramsey returned from injury. The Dolphins allow the sixth-least production to slot receivers, which is crucial because that’s where CeeDee Lamb plays.

    MIAMI OFFENSE: While the Dolphins have thrived at stopping the pass, the Cowboys have struggled to contain it. Dallas has gotten torched by some opponents recently, with the team being the weakest to outside receivers. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle happen to play on the outside, and they’ll be able to exploit a matchup versus a team that allows the second-most production to outside wideouts.

    However, there’s a question that must be answered: Will Tua Tagovailoa have enough time to locate Hill and Waddle for big gains? The answer was no two weeks ago when the Titans defeated the Dolphins on a Monday night. Missing several blockers, the Dolphins struggled to generate any sort of offense. Obviously, things reversed last week, even without Hill. However, the Cowboys have an elite pass rush that should be able to harass Tagovailoa frequently.

    The Dolphins may not have much success running the ball either. James Cook dashed right through Dallas last week, but the Cowboys have ranked in the top 10 of run defense all year, and some of the injuries to the Miami offensive line could play a factor.

    RECAP: Though the Cowboys were fully debacled against the Bills last week, they received some good news on Monday when Mike McCarthy told the media that there’s a chance Martin will be able to play this week. Martin’s availability would be huge for the Cowboys, as Prescott needs everything around him to be perfect in order to thrive.

    If Martin’s healthy, that’ll give Dallas a big advantage in the trenches. The Cowboys will be able to protect their quarterback, while the Dolphins may not be able to do so. Pass protection is so paramount in the NFL, so this sort of edge gives Dallas a good chance to prevail.

    I’m going to be on the Cowboys. I love backing good teams coming off embarrassing losses, and that certainly applies to the Cowboys, who ran into a buzzsaw last week at Buffalo. However, Martin got hurt, while some Dallas players were dealing with the flu. A healthier Cowboys team will be able to triumph in Miami.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m not seeing any illness designations for the Cowboys, which is great news for them. The Dolphins, on the other hand, had lots of players miss Wednesday’s practice, including Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, Terron Armstead, and Xavien Howard.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Dak Prescott needs everything around him to be perfect. Tyron Smith is doubtful, while Zack Martin barely practiced this week, so it’s safe to say that things aren’t perfect. The Dolphins, however, are missing three offensive linemen as well, which is problematic against Dallas’ pass rush. Tyreek Hill looks like he’ll play, however, so I like Miami.

    PLAYER PROPS: I’m not in love with anything here with uncertainy on the injury report for both teams.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps are coming in on Dallas again at +2. There might be good news on Zack Martin’s status.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Zack Martin and Austin Jackson were iffy to play heading into this game for the Cowboys and Dolphins, respectively, but both linemen will play. I was hoping for some sort of edge in that regard, but we’re not getting it. The sharps at the very least are betting Dallas. I will remain zero on the Dolphins. The best Miami line is -1.5 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: Dolphins. Calculated Spread: Dolphins -2.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -1.5.

    Computer Model: Dolphins -3.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.

    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Dallas: 59% (165,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.

  • Opening Line: Dolphins -1.5.
  • Opening Total: 51.
  • Weather: Slight chance of rain, 74 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

  • Week 16 NFL Pick: Dolphins 30, Cowboys 27
    Dolphins -1.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Over 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Dolphins 22, Cowboys 20

    Arizona Cardinals (3-11) at Chicago Bears (5-9)
    Line: Bears by 4. Total: 42.

    Sunday, Dec. 24, 4:25 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

    If you’re looking to bet legally, you can get the best sportsbook promos where you’ll get hundreds of dollars in free wagers if you sign up using the links on this page.

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: This is an easy matchup for the Bears, though anyone battling the Cardinals can say this. Arizona is terrible in most aspects of its defense, after all.

    The Cardinals can’t stop the run at all, so Chicago’s three backs should do well. It’s unclear who will handle the majority of the workload, but the three Chicago runners should collectively perform well.

    Justin Fields will thrive when airing it out against the Cardinals as well. Arizona allows the seventh-most production to outside receivers, so this obviously bodes well for D.J. Moore, who had a difficult matchup last week.

    ARIZONA OFFENSE: To those who don’t pay close attention to teams out of playoff contention, this may seem like an easy matchup for Kyler Murray. Chicago’s defense was constantly torched to start the year, and Murray’s return to action would mean that the Cardinals would move the chains effectively against the Bears.

    This, however, is hardly the case. The Bears apply tons of pressure on the quarterback with Montez Sweat, and they also cover well on the back end. Chicago also happens to defend mobile quarterbacks well, which matters a lot for this matchup. The Bears have surrendered the fourth-fewest rushing yardage to opposing passers.

    The Cardinals won’t get much out of their real running game either. James Conner will have the tough task of running against Chicago’s defense, which has yielding the fourth-fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs as well.

    RECAP: The sharps steamed the Bears at -3 to -4.5. It sucks not being able to get the -3 anymore, given that the result of three hits so often.

    Still, the Bears seem like the right side, and I’d even argue that -4.5 is way too low. According to the ratings associated with my NFL Power Rankings, Chicago should be -7. The EPA metrics are even more bullish on the Bears; it believes -7.5 is the right number.

    Let’s take advantage of the public not fully catching on to how good the Bears are. The sharps obviously know, as we can tell by this rapid line movement, but it wouldn’t shock me at all to see the Cardinals become a public dog later in the week.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Cardinals could be without Marquise Brown, which would limit their offense even further. The sharps were on the Bears earlier in the week, but there was some take-back on Arizona at +4.5.

    SATURDAY NOTES: I don’t know why this line dropped back down to +4. What’s worth noting is that the Cardinals won’t have Marquise Brown and potentially Greg Dortch. This seems like a big issue against Chicago’s excellent secondary. I’m bumping this pick up to four units.

    PLAYER PROPS: In nine full games with Justin Fields, D.J. Moore has eclipsed 65.5 receiving yards six times. And that’s not even factoring in this great matchup. The best odds are over 65.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: D’Onta Foreman has been ruled out, which is good news for the Bears because that means more Roschon Johnson.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have come in on the Bears, driving this line to -4.5 or -5, depending on the sportsbook. The best line is -4.5 -109 at Bookmaker.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: Bears. Calculated Spread: Bears -7.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -3.

    Computer Model: Bears -7.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

    Slight lean on the Cardinals.

    Percentage of money on Arizona: 63% (111,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.

  • Opening Line: Bears -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Slight chance of rain, 51 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

  • Week 16 NFL Pick: Bears 24, Cardinals 16
    Bears -4.5 -109 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$400
    Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: D.J. Moore over 65.5 receiving yards -115 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$115
    Bears 27, Cardinals 16

    New England Patriots (3-11) at Denver Broncos (7-7)
    Line: Broncos by 7. Total: 36.5.

    Sunday, Dec. 24, 8:15 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

    Emmitt on the Brink was posted here. Now, Emmitt makes an appearance in my new book, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen!

    You can support the site by buying this book and spreading the word!

    How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen

    NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: For a defense ranked in the top 10 of EPA, the Broncos sure have plenty of weaknesses on this side of the ball. They’re one of the worst teams when it comes to stopping the run, and they also can’t defend tight ends whatsoever. Detroit was able to exploit both aspects via Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta.

    The Patriots are built to do the same. They run the ball well with Ezekiel Elliott, who recently had a great performance against the Steelers. Elliott also excels at catching the ball out of the backfield, which will work against the Broncos, who allow the seventh-most receiving yards to opposing running backs.

    New England will be able to attack the Broncos’ tight end liability as well. Bailey “Ben” Zappe has developed a rapport with Hunter Henry, who was a penalty away from scoring four touchdowns in the past two weeks.

    DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos match up poorly with their defense, but what about their offense? Surely they can score points on this side of the ball against the lowly Patriots, right?

    I wouldn’t be too sure about that. First of all, the Patriots are up to third in defensive EPA, as Bill Belichick has really figured things out with his defense. New England is especially potent at stopping the run, allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards to opposing backs. This is troubling for the Broncos, who would love to do nothing but pound the rock with Javonte Williams.

    The Patriots still have issues defending the pass with their injury-ravaged secondary. However, we’ve seen Russell Wilson fail to exploit these liabilities in similar matchups against the Texans and Lions. Wilson, who really only plays well when down at least two touchdowns, can’t take advantage of a weakness like this.

    RECAP: This is the same exact matchup the Broncos had versus the Lions last Saturday. The only difference is that the Patriots don’t have an explosive passing combination like Jared Goff to Amon-Ra St. Brown, but everything else is identical. Denver will need Wilson to air it out to win, which is not going to happen. Meanwhile, Denver’s defense will have its liabilities exploited.

    I like the Patriots in this spot, with my only reservation being a possibility where the Broncos establish an early lead with some sort of fluky touchdown. This is worrying because the Patriots are not built to come from behind with Zappe at the helm. Otherwise, New England should play rather well.

    I find it amusing, by the way, that the Broncos are only -6.5 versus the Patriots despite having an extra day of rest. The fact that this line isn’t even -7 seems like the sportsbooks are begging the public to back the Broncos. Conversely, if you’re a sharper bettor who likes New England, you’re probably wondering, “Ugh, why can’t I at least get the +7?” Sportsbooks want to make the right side look as uncomfortable as possible.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Hunter Henry missed Wednesday’s practice. It’s still early in the week, but Henry’s absence would hurt because he’s one of the edges the Patriots have in this game.

    SATURDAY NOTES: It’s discouraging to see this line move through seven to -7.5. This is because of New England injuries. First of all, Hunter Henry barely practiced all week. He’s a big part of how the Patriots would attack Denver’s defense, so his absence means more than anyone else thinks. Second, there are a number of defensive injuries worth discussing. New England’s best defender, Jabrill Peppers, is out. Some other key players are questionable, including Jahlani Tavai and Jonathan Jones. I’m also starting to really sour on the idea of backing “Ben” Zappe against a top-10 defense.

    PLAYER PROPS: Rhamondre Stevenson is out again, which opens up another positive output for Ezekiel Elliott. The Broncos surrender the most rushing yards in the NFL, and Elliott has shined in his opportunities. The best odds are over 63.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    SAME-GAME PARLAY: Let’s toss in the Elliott prop with the following: Javonte Williams under 53.5 rushing yards, Courtland Sutton over 53.5 receiving yards, and Jerry Jeudy under 3.5 receptions, which pays out +760 on FanDuel. The Patriots are stout versus the run, so Williams will be restricted. Russell Wilson loves throwing to Courtland Sutton, and the Patriots have injuries on defense. Jerry Jeudy, meanwhile, hasn’t caught more than three passes since Week 11. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has bounced back to +7.5. There was sharp money on the Patriots at +7.5, but I imagine other pro money came in on Denver at -7.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money is on the Patriots at +7.5. I like New England as well because the inactives list isn’t too bad. Jabrill Peppers being out is not ideal, but the Patriots’ injury report was overblown. I’m going back to two units on New England. The best line is +7 -103 at Bookmaker.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: Patriots. Calculated Spread: Broncos -4.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -5.5.

    Computer Model: Broncos -2.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.

    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on New England: 57% (115,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

  • Russell Wilson is 33-15 ATS after a loss since his second season.
  • Russell Wilson is 25-17 ATS in night games.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -5.5.
  • Opening Total: 36.5.
  • Weather: Chance of snow, 29 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

  • Week 16 NFL Pick: Patriots 16, Broncos 13
    Patriots +7 -103 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
    Under 36.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Ezekiel Elliott over 63.5 rushing yards -114 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$115
    Same-Game Parlay: Ezekiel Elliott over 63.5 rushing yards, Javonte Williams under 53.5 rushing yards, Courtland Sutton over 53.5 receiving yards, Jerry Jeudy under 3.5 total receptions +760 (0.3 Units to win 2.28) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$30
    Patriots 26, Broncos 23

    Las Vegas Raiders (6-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)
    Line: Chiefs by 10.5. Total: 40.5.

    Monday, Dec. 25, 1:00 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Santa Reservation.

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The last time the Chiefs played the Raiders, they had a rare result where their receivers didn’t screw up by dropping passes or fumbling the ball. They fell behind 14-0, but they played a clean game and ended up covering despite the early deficit.

    A big part of the Chiefs’ success was that Maxx Crosby wasn’t 100 percent. Crosby was actually listed as doubtful heading into the game, but ended up playing. He wasn’t effective at all, however, registering a single pressure. It was the only game this year where Crosby had fewer than four pressures.

    Crosby is healthy now, so he’ll put more pressure on Patrick Mahomes. However, Mahomes will still find a way to have quality touchdown drives. Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce both had big gains against the Raiders in that contest. The Raiders struggle against tight ends, so Kelce could replicate that Week 12 performance.

    LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders established that 14-0 lead in Week 12 versus the Chiefs via an opening touchdown drive and then a long Josh Jacobs touchdown run. Jacobs, however, didn’t get anything after that, as the Chiefs stacked the line of scrimmage, forcing Aidan O’Connell to beat them. O’Connell wilted under pressure, as crossing midfield was a rarity for him in the second half.

    Two factors were prevalent in O’Connell’s poor play. One, Kolton Miller played hurt. Miller not being 100 percent naturally allowed more pressure in the backfield. Two, the Chiefs had L’Jarius Sneed smother Davante Adams. The Raider receiver had some decent gains, but was limited by Sneed for the most part.

    Sneed is still around to cover Adams, but Miller may play in this game. Miller has missed every game since that battle against the Chiefs, but with extended time off following the Thursday game, he could return for this contest. He’ll be needed against the Kansas City defense, which is healthier now than it has been in recent weeks.

    RECAP: The Raiders will be better this time against the Chiefs. Crosby being healthy will automatically make this result different for the Raiders defense because he was barely functional in the first meeting. This is obviously bad news for Kansas City’s offense, which can’t stop making mistakes.

    It’s not the greatest feeling backing a struggling Chiefs offense with this many points, but that’s what I’ll be doing. I just don’t trust backups like O’Connell against top-12 NFL defenses, and that’s what the Chiefs are when everyone’s healthy. The metrics show that Kansas City is 26th in defensive EPA, but that’s factoring in many of their recent injuries. Everyone except Bryan Cook is back for Kansas City, so this will be the same terrific defense O’Connell faced back in Week 12, though it remains to be seen if he’ll have Miller protecting his blind side at 100-percent efficiency this time.

    I’m not in love with this pick, so I don’t think I’ll be betting it. Again, going with such a mistake-prone, offensively challenged team as a double-digit favorite seems perilous, though I think Kansas City is the right side.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I didn’t talk about this earlier, but the Chiefs only being -10 doesn’t make much sense here. They were -9 in Las Vegas where they beat the Raiders by 14. Why would they be favored by just one more point at home?

    SATURDAY NOTES: Maxx Crosby has yet to practice as of Friday. Meanwhile, something to watch out for is Chris Jones, who has been DNP-DNP with an illness. Jones’ status is huge because the Chiefs certainly won’t have a top-10 defense if he’s missing.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones don’t have injury designations. I imagine there’s a better chance Jones is 100 percent because he missed practice with an illness. Crosby might be legitimately banged up.

    PLAYER PROPS: No. 2 receivers have great success against the Chiefs. Jakobi Meyers lit up Kansas City in the first meeting, and I believe he’ll do so again. The best number is over 38.5 -115 at DraftKings.

    SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m tossing in Meyers and Chiefs -11 with Travis Kelce over 66.5 receiving yards and Richie James over 1.5 receptions. Kelce always crushes the Raiders, while James will see a larger role with Kadarius Toney out. This goes for +1100 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Josh Jacobs is out, which might be why this line has gone to -11 in some books. The best line is -10.5 -110 at FanDuel and BetMGM. There’s no sharp money on either side. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: Raiders. Calculated Spread: Chiefs -9.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -10.5.

    Computer Model: Chiefs -1.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.

    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Kansas City: 53% (287,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

  • History: Chiefs have won 16 of the last 18 meetings.
  • Raiders are 19-13 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.
  • Raiders are 35-54 ATS after a win since 2009.
  • Patrick Mahomes is 80-23 SU, 55-47 ATS (43-35 ATS when not favored by double digits.)
  • Opening Line: Chiefs -10.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: Rain, 45 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

  • Week 16 NFL Pick: Chiefs 27, Raiders 13
    Chiefs -10.5 (2 Units) – FanDuel/BetMGM — Incorrect; -$220
    Under 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Player Prop: Jakobi Meyers over 38.5 receiving yards -115 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Correct; +$100
    Same-Game Parlay: Chiefs -11, Jakobi Meyers over 37.5 receiving yards, Travis Kelce over 66.5 receiving yards, Richie James over 1.5 receptions +1100 (0.3 Units to win 3.3) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$30
    Raiders 20, Chiefs 14

    New York Giants (5-9) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-4)
    Line: Eagles by 14. Total: 43.

    Monday, Dec. 25, 4:30 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

    I’m using this section to promote things from friends and readers of the Web site. If you want something promoted, shoot me an e-mail.

    Quacky Takes with Tommy has been my guest each Thursday night. He does video game speed runs on his Twitch channel, Quacky_T.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: As I always say when breaking down the Giants defense, it’s important to determine how the opposing quarterback will do against the blitz. This is because the Giants blitz at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Jalen Hurts has a worse touchdown-to-interception ratio when blitzed (8:6) compared to when he’s not (11:4). However, Hurts’ completion percentage is about the same, while his YPA and big-time throw rate are both higher. Hurts shouldn’t have an issue against this defense.

    With that in mind, I expect an offensive explosion from the Eagles. The Giants have issues in their secondary, as they are right near the bottom 10 in surrendering production to outside receivers. As it so happens, the Eagles have A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to take advantage of this liability.

    The Eagles should be able to move the chains on the ground as well. The Giants don’t maintain a great rush defense, so D’Andre Swift will be able to exploit this liability.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: Speaking of liabilities, everyone knows where the Eagles struggle. That would be the secondary. They’ve been torched by competent passing attacks all year. Sam Howell looked like Joe Montana in two matchups against them.

    I’m not sure if Tommy DeVito will be able to emulate what Howell was able to accomplish. Not that DeVito is necessarily worse than Howell, but his receiving corps is rather lackluster compared to Washington’s. The Redskins have Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel. Who is going to challenge the Eagles in this game? Jalin Hyatt? Darius Slayton? Wan’Dale Robinson? I could see Robinson having a decent game, and perhaps Hyatt will catch a deep pass, but this won’t be anything consistent.

    Saquon Barkley won’t do much either, at least not as a rusher. The Eagles are stout against the run, and they’ll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage because they won’t have to worry about DeVito beating them deep.

    RECAP: If there was ever a get-right game for the Eagles, this is it. The only downside here is that they’re playing on the East Coast on a short week following the Seahawks game, but given that they’ve lost three in a row, I’m sure we’ll see them at their best.

    Philadelphia crushed the Giants twice last year in the two games in which Hurts was healthy. The same thing could happen in this matchup. The Giants don’t have the personnel to stop the Eagles at all, while the pitiful New York receiving corps will prevent the Giants from scoring very much.

    I was hoping to get better line value than this after the Eagles lost to the Seahawks. However, despite the defeat on national TV, this line has moved up from -10.5 to -11.5! The sportsbooks appear to be begging people to bet the Giants.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread keeps getting steamed up, as the public is pounding the Eagles without any resistance from the sharps. I will like the Eagles at any number under -14.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The big news is that the Eagles may get Avonte Maddox back from injury. I don’t know if he’ll be 100 percent in his first game back, but his presence will certainly help Philadelphia’s ailing secondary. Meanwhile, the Giants haven’t seen Dexter Lawrence practice yet this week.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m considering locking in the -13.5. Many people don’t know this, but 14 is a key number. Fourteen is the fourth-most-likely result of any NFL game.

    PLAYER PROPS: The Eagles can’t defend slot receivers. This will change when Avonte Maddox returns from injury, but he’s going to be out again. Wan’Dale Robinson has caught at least four passes in each of the past three games. The best number for his receptions is 3.5 -146 at FanDuel.

    SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going to toss in Eagles -14 and Wan’Dale Robinson 4+ receptions along with Jalin Hyatt 25+ receiving yards and DeVonta Smith 60+ receiving yards. The Eagles suck everywhere in their secondary, so Hyatt should hit. As for Smith, he was more productive than A.J. Brown against the Giants last year. This parlay is for +1235 and can be done on FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a sharp lean on the Eagles, with this spread being steamed up to -14. The best line is -14 -105 at Bookmaker and Bovada, followed by -14 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: Giants. Calculated Spread: Eagles -7.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -10.5.

    Computer Model: Giants -1.

    The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

    People still believe in the Eagles.

    Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 62% (291,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

  • History: Eagles have won 26 the last 31 meetings.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -10.5.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: Slight chance of rain, 51 degrees. Light wind.

  • Week 16 NFL Pick: Eagles 34, Giants 17
    Eagles -14 -105 (3 Units) – Bookmaker/Bovada — Incorrect; -$315
    Over 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Player Prop: Wan’Dale Robinson over 3.5 receptions -146 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$145
    Same-Game Parlay: Eagles -14, Wan’Dale Robinson 4+ receptions, Jalin Hyatt 25+ receiving yards, DeVonta Smith 60+ receiving yards +1235 (0.3 Units to win 3.7) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$30
    Eagles 33, Giants 25

    Baltimore Ravens (11-3) at San Francisco 49ers (11-3)
    Line: 49ers by 6.5. Total: 46.5.

    Monday, Dec. 25, 8:15 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Francisco, home of the gays, and don’t worry, Mother, I am wearing the Bunghole Guard 2000 (TM) you packed for me, so no one neferious will be penetrating my bunghole while I’m out here! They say tonight is a big game and a Super Bowl preview, but this is BS because my Philadelphia Eagles are not involved, and as everyone knows, my Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the universe!

    Emmitt: Thanks, Relm, when you say universe that remounded me of a book on astromogy that my mother, Emily Smith IV Jr. the III Esq. gived me for a birthday present on Christmas one year. The universe are the thing in space that real big and have a lot of star and Milky Way and Almond Joy candy.

    Reilly: Emmitt, I know you’re trying to help, but please don’t mention candy around me. Mother says it’s the devil because it can give me cavities even if I think about it! Mother also said I have to pay for my own braces, so no thank you to candy!

    Tollefson: I agree with you, Kevin. The only candy I’m interested in is the Candy from the strip club. Or, should I say, formerly of the strip club. I’ve been holding her captive in my basement for months now. Strippers make the worst cleaners, but she still serves a function shoveling coal into the furnace while naked, of course.

    Reilly: I hate when Mother forces me to shovel coal into the furnace, so I wish we also kidnapped a stripper to do this instead of me. Anyway, let’s get to this week’s special girlfriend for me. As you guys know, Mother’s friends at the hair salon said that I couldn’t date a hotter singer than Taylor Swift, so Mother has allowed me to talk to girls for the first time in my 65 years on this Earth so she can prove her friends wrong. This week’s potential girlfriend is – I can’t read this handwriting – Ella John?

    Elton John: That’s Elton John, and Sir Elton John, specifically, you dog-face pony soldier. I’m going to be brief, but I need to give thanks to everyone who made this appearance happen. Umm… uhh… Ben Phillips. Umm… uhh… Sam Jacobs. Umm… Lilly Weiss. Umm… Allison Greene. Patricia Abraham. Lisa Paris. Umm… uhh… Mandy Brenner. Francis Slater. I’m not going to take very long. Umm… uhh… Brandee Miller. Martha Crowder. Alicia Egan. Umm… uhh… Alex Choi. Samuel Wing. Benjamin Burton. Umm… uhh… I know I’m forgetting someone. I don’t want to take too much time. Uhh… umm… Curtis Brant. Jerry Walker. Suzanne Scribbles. Umm… uhh… Melissa Cunningham. Roseanne Klein. Umm…

    Reilly: OK, we get it, you have a lot of people to thank. Are any of those people even real, anyway? Producers, why would you set me up with this guy? He’s not even a girl, so how can he be my girlfriend? It makes no sense!

    Elton John: Oh come now, surely you can’t have a little fun with old Elt- wait a second, I’m picking up something neferious in the area. I can sniff it, like I sniff my dog’s bunghole after he makes poo so I can learn what he has been eating.

    Reilly: Wow, we have something in common, Elton. Mother made me sniff her cat’s bunghole the other day because she thought the cat ate one of her pearl necklaces, but New Daddy thought the pearls were marshmallows, so he ate them instead. New D- wait, we’re getting nudged by Charissa Thompson with a sideline report. Charissa?

    Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Kevin. I just got word that Elton John has just appeared in the locker room and has urinated all over Brock Purdy’s locker. I’m getting word that Sir Elton is now smearing feces on Deebo Samuel’s face. Back to you, Kevin.

    Reilly: Elton John is right here next to me, what are you talking about!? Senator president John Feasterman, I’m not gay, but I am also flattered that Sir Elton John has taken an interest in me. What do I do?

    John Fetterman: Some say macaroni and cheese is a vegetable! I say it’s a vegetable. The thing about vegetables … shields up, red alert! Port to starboard! The wormhole is opening, and out come the chicken fingers! Do not pass go, do not collect macaroni and cheese. I eat tomato cans for breakfast!

    Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! Elton John, you seem to be inching close to me. I have to say that I am wearing protection.

    Elton John: I’m sorry, I thought you were my dog. I sniff my dog’s bunghole after he makes poo so I can learn what he has been eating.

    Reilly: Yes, you’ve said that already. Are you torturing me because you know I had to sniff my cat’s bunghole for my daily chores? This is ridiculous. President Joe Bident, you definitely had 81 million votes even though you barely left your basement and you were behind until a huge batch of votes all came in for you at the same time in the middle of the night, so you’d know better than anyone. Should I tell Elton John to buzz off, or should I remove my protection for him?

    Joe Biden: Now look here, you yogurt-licking tablecloth puncher. Protection is very important. I make sure I wear protection all the time when I’m out with my latest girlfriend, Tonya, who’s probably in arts and crafts right now. But here’s the deal: You’re lying. You’re all lying about my son- uhh- you know, the guy, he had the you know, you know the thing. The point is that when you have a 7-11, you have to know how to speak the Indian language, or you’re not going to know what the heck those guys are saying. It reminds me when you let the white kids go to those schools in the inner city, they’re like the jungles. But here’s the deal: Arts and crafts is almost over, so Tina and I are going to head up to my shower where I will use protection heh heh heh- wait, I have poo in my bum bum, excuse me, I have to go to the situation room, excuse me, excuse me.

    Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that his girlfriend Tonya takes arts and crafts, but she doesn’t really take arts and crafts, because if you take arts and crafts, you have to be good at arts and crafts, and frankly, Tonya is a total disgrace and a total disaster when it comes to arts and crafts, no one is worse at arts and crafts than Tonya, frankly, including me, and I wouldn’t say I’m the best at arts and crafts, but lots of people came up to me and said, “Mr. President, you are the best arts and crafts student I have ever seen,” and I said, “I didn’t know I was that good at arts and crafts, but now I know that I’m the greatest arts and crafts student who ever lived, much better than that total disgrace Tonya, and her popsicle stick figures, which are horrible and no one likes them, not even her boyfriend Sleepy Joe, who is just saying he likes the arts and crafts, but we know why he’s lying, and that’s because he’s a total disgrace and a total disaster.”


    Reilly: Shut up, idiots! Elton John, I’ve decided that I am flattered that you have taken interest in me, but I must choose a woman because that’s part of the bet that Mother had with the women at the hair salon. So, my Bunghole Guard 2000 (TM) will stay on.

    Elton John: Oh no, not the Bunghole Guard 2000 (TM)! I have been the master of unlocking the Bunghole Guard 1000 (TM), but the Bunghole Guard 2000 (TM) has been my personal nemesis. I need to cool off, so let me thank some other people I haven’t thanked yet, but keep in mind that I will run through these very quickly. Thank-

    Reilly: No, no, just stop it already! The only people who care if you thank them are narcissists who just want to hear their names. New Daddy, tell Elton John that I know more than him because he only thanks losers, and he didn’t even bother thanking me, who was his almost boyfriend!

    Jay Cutler: Dude, I’m not getting involved in this.

    Reilly: But New Daddy, this is important to me! Don’t you care about me at all?

    Jay Cutler: Who are you again?

    Reilly: New Daddy, please tell me you care!

    Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about Care Bears, Kevin. Let’s discuss the Care Bears, Kevin. There’s Cheer Bear, Kevin. Then there’s Funshine Bear, Kevin. How about Tenderheart Bear, Kevin? Let’s discuss Grumpy Bear, Kevin. Sounds a lot like Kevin, Kevin. Can we get to Friend Bear, Kevin? That’s the opposite of Kevin, Kevin, because Kevin, Kevin, has no friends, Kevin. Then there’s-


    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The Ravens have an excellent defense without any major weaknesses. However, as good as their defense is, the 49ers’ offense is even better. San Francisco has Pro Bowlers at almost every position. No wonder Brock Purdy is considered to be the MVP frontrunner!

    The Ravens are decent against the run, but Christian McCaffrey is too good to be stopped, especially with so many aerial weapons to worry about. Besides, we’ve seen Kyren Williams recently rush for 115 yards versus this defense.

    Speaking of those aerial weapons, it doesn’t seem likely that the Ravens cornerbacks will be able to limit Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. If there’s one liability the Ravens have on this side of the ball, it’s their cornerbacks. The corners haven’t really been tested in many games because the pass rush has been so spectacular, but San Francisco’s offensive line is capable of keeping Purdy shielded well. This will allow Purdy to connect with Samuel, Aiyuk, and also George Kittle.

    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens had one weakness on this side of the ball entering Week 15. That was their pass protection. Ronnie Stanley is a mere shell of his former self, and we saw Lamar Jackson constantly running for his life against the Jaguars on Sunday night.

    While the Jaguars have a strong pass rush, the 49ers are even better at getting to the quarterback, thanks to Chase Young joining Nick Bosa. Jackson will have even less time in the pocket, and unlike his matchup against Jacksonville, he won’t have the luxury of battling a defense that is very soft against the pass.

    I wrote that the Ravens had one problem on offense heading into Week 15. There’s a second now, thanks to Keaton Mitchell’s season-ending torn ACL. Mitchell gave the Ravens a dynamic threat out of the backfield, which is something they sorely lack at the moment. The 49ers won’t be threatened by Baltimore’s rushing attack at all, which seems like a major issue because an elite defense like the 49ers can handle a one-dimensional defense. Sure, Jackson can run himself, but San Francisco ranks in the top 10 at defending scrambling quarterbacks.

    RECAP: When I initially saw this spread, my first instinct was to consider backing the underdog. Five-and-a-half points seemed like a lot in this game. Sure, the 49ers are the best team in the NFL, but the Ravens certainly rank in the top five, if not the top three. How can a top-three team be a 5.5-point underdog against anyone?

    However, I am going to be on the 49ers. It seems like they match up very well against the Ravens. Baltimore’s cornerbacks are going to be very challenged without the usual pressure from the defensive front, while the Baltimore offensive line will have trouble protecting Jackson.

    Something else to consider is the advantage that West Coast teams have in night games versus opponents on the East Coast. Thanks in part to circadian rhythms, the 49ers have maintained a great spread record in prime time; San Francisco is 42-30 against the spread as favorites in night games since 1989.

    I wouldn’t go crazy with this wager because I could see Jackson getting a back-door cover. However, San Francisco seems to be worth a wager of about two or three units.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t weighed in on this game yet. It’ll be interesting to see which side they take, if they go with one at all.

    SATURDAY NOTES: This line has moved to -6, which will make Baltimore even more appealing for the public. It seems as though the sportsbooks are begging people to bet the Ravens.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We had a cool discussion about this game on the After Dark Show. Please hit subscribe because we’re closing in on 4,000 subs!

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t like anything as far as props are concerned, and I’m too tilted to post anything anyway. Apparently, any team I pick will allow multiple defensive touchdowns. Well, congrats, Ravens, because I’m on the 49ers for three units. The sharps have been on the 49ers at -5.5 and -6. The best line is -6.5 -107 at Bookmaker.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: None. Calculated Spread: 49ers -4.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -4.5.

    Computer Model: 49ers -5.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

    Money coming in on the Ravens.

    Percentage of money on Baltimore: 60% (415,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.

  • John Harbaugh is 14-7 ATS in his second-conseuctive road game.
  • Lamar Jackson is 10-1 ATS as an underdog.
  • Ravens are 6-12 ATS on the West Coast in franchise history.
  • 49ers are 42-30 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.
  • Brock Purdy is 17-3 SU, 13-7 ATS.
  • Opening Line: Ravens -5.
  • Opening Total: 45.5.
  • Weather: Fog, 56 degrees. Light wind.

  • Week 16 NFL Pick: 49ers 31, Ravens 24
    49ers -6.5 -107 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$320
    Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Ravens 33, 49ers 19

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

    NFL Picks Week 16 – Early Games

    Saints at Rams  |  Bengals at Steelers  |  Bills at Chargers  |  Colts at Falcons  |  Packers at Panthers  |  Browns at Texans  |  Seahawks at Titans  |  Redskins at Jets  |  Lions at Vikings  | 

    Comments on the 2023 NFL Season’s Games and Picks

    NFL Picks - Sept. 11

    Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 7

    2024 NFL Mock Draft - July 25

    NFL Power Rankings - June 2

    Review Walt’s Past Record Picking Games

    On the bottom half of our NFL Weekly Lander page is the history of picks Walt maintains. Walt’s Results