2010 NCAA Tournament Preview: Mountain West

BYU (29-5)

WHY TO LOVE: The Cougars have an excellent offense that averages 83.5 points per game. That’s not surprising, as junior guard Jimmer Fredette is one of the top scorers in the nation. Fredette (21.4 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.7 apg) is a great shooter, who nails 45.4 percent of his threes.

Including Fredette, BYU has four double-digit scorers: junior guard Jackson Emery (12.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg), freshman guard Tyler Haws (11.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg) and senior forward Jonathan Tavernari (10.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg).

No one shoots threes better than BYU, as the team hits an amazing 42.1 percent of its long-distance shots. Along with Fredette, the Cougars have four dynamic three-point shooters: Emery (43.1), Haws (36.8) and Tavernari (39.3).

BYU takes great care of the basketball, turning it over just 11.5 times per contest – an amazingly low number compared to the team’s points-per-game average.

The Cougars were 9-3 on the road this season, winning impressively at UTEP and San Diego State.

WHY TO HATE: From reading everything above, you may think BYU is a Final Four contender. Well, consider this: In the past three seasons, head coach Dave Rose has taken 25-9, 27-7 and 25-8 Cougar teams to the NCAA Tournament. All three ventures into the Big Dance resulted in first-round losses. Thus, BYU violates Rule No. 3 of my NCAA Tournament Credo.

THE VERDICT: Depending on the matchup, BYU could once again lose in the first round. This is their best chance to finally get past the first day, but getting out of the first weekend will be a challenge.
New Mexico (29-4)

WHY TO LOVE: New Mexico has four double-digit scorers: junior guards Darington Hobson (16.2 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 4.5 apg) and Dairese Gary (12.6 ppg, 4.0 apg), senior forward Roman Martinez (13.9 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and sophomore guard Phillip McDonald (10.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg).

The Lobos shoot tons of threes, but for good reason – as a team, they hit 37.6 percent of them. Hobson (37.8%), Martinez (42.1) and McDonald (39.8) are all lethal from beyond.

New Mexico rebounds well and takes care of the ball; they’re very efficient.

This team is 10-2 on the road, with great wins at UNLV and BYU.

WHY TO HATE: New Mexico has no tournament experience. They haven’t been to the Big Dance since 2005, and they haven’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 1999.

The Mountain West usually produces losers, which means New Mexico violates Rule No. 8 of the NCAA Tournament Credo.

Doesn’t fulfill all five requisites in the Portrait of a Champion (returning head coach, scored 76 ppg, ~~10+ margin of victory~~, in the tournament last year, seeded 1-4).

THE VERDICT: This is a solid team capable of making an Elite Eight run depending on the matchup. However, their inexperience could hurt if they are matched up against some of the better No. 1/2/4/5 seeds. They could easily be knocked out in Round 2.
San Diego State (25-8)

WHY TO LOVE: San Diego State has four double-digit scorers, led by superstar freshman forward Kawhi Leonard (12.6 ppg, 9.5 rpg). Complementing him are junior forwards Malcolm Thomas (11.2 ppg, 7.9 rpg) and Billy White (10.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg), and junior guard D.J. Gay (10.5 ppg).

Though San Diego State doesn’t shoot the three very well, it has two very solid outside shooters: Gay (38.5%) and Chase Tapley (37.6).

The Aztec defense is excellent, allowing only 62.6 ppg.

WHY TO HATE: Inexperience is a factor. Including Leonard, San Diego State has two freshmen in its starting lineup. Three of the top six scorers are underclassmen.

San Diego State’s free-throw shooting is abysmal; the team is just 60.6 percent from the charity stripe. No regular hits better than 71.5 percent.

History is working against the Aztecs here; under head coach Steve Fisher, they’ve never won an NCAA Tournament game in two opportunities.

THE VERDICT: I wouldn’t bet on San Diego State winning a game in this Big Dance. They’re way too inexperienced, and their three-point shooting isn’t good enough.
UNLV (25-8)

WHY TO LOVE: Junior guard Tre’Von Willis (17.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.5 apg) is one of the top mid-major players in the country.

UNLV was 8-7 on the road this year, winning impressively at New Mexico.

The Rebels play solid defense, limiting opponents to 63.8 ppg.

Lon Kruger is an excellent coach. In his previous two NCAA Tournament appearances, he has reached the Sweet 16 and second round.

WHY TO HATE: The Rebels violate Rule No. 6 of my NCAA Tournament Credo; they have only one reliable scorer.

UNLV is an undersized squad and rebounds poorly.

The Rebels shoot a lot of threes, but they may want to reconsider that strategy. As a whole, they hit just 32.9 percent of their long-range shots. Oscar Bellfield (38.1) and Kendall Wallace (44.6) are excellent three-point shooters, but Willis and Chace Stanback take too many long jumpers.

None of UNLV’s top six scorers are seniors. Two of the top three scorers are underclassmen.

THE VERDICT: Teams with only one reliable scorer usually exit the NCAA Tournament very early. UNLV will probably lose in the first round.