2010 NCAA Tournament Preview: Big Ten

Illinois*** (19-14)

WHY TO LOVE: Illinois recently has been a team with an inept offense and an inability to win on the road. That’s not the case this year; the Fighting Illini averaged more than 70 points per game and went 6-4 in its away contests with victories at Clemson and Wisconsin.

This team has four double-digit scorers: junior guard Demetri McCamey (14.9 ppg, 6.8 apg), junior center Mike Tisdale (11.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg), junior forward Mike Davis (10.3 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and freshman guard D.J. Richardson (10.3 ppg).

As a whole, Illinois hits just 34 percent from downtown, but both McCamey (36.1%) and D.J. Richardson (39.0) are reliable from deep.

WHY TO HATE: I don’t think Bruce Weber is that good of a coach. He took Bill Self’s team to the NCAA Championship, but since then, he has made it past the first round only once. They violate Rule No. 3 of the NCAA Tournament Credo.

THE VERDICT: Illinois is a solid team capable of pulling a couple of upsets this March. I won’t have them advancing far because of Weber, but it wouldn’t shock me if they advanced to the Sweet 16.
Michigan State (24-8)

WHY TO LOVE: This is the same Michigan State team that took on North Carolina in the championship last year, minus Goran Suton. Last season’s top scorer is this season’s top scorer; point guard Kalin Lucas is one of the top floor-generals in the nation. He averaged 14.8 points per game this season.

The Spartans have four double-digit scorers. In addition to Lucas, there’s senior forward Raymar Morgan (11.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg), junior guard Durrell Summers (10.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg) and sophomore Draymond Green (10.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 3.1 apg).

As you may know, Tom Izzo is an amazing coach. His tournament record is an impressive 29-10. Here are his results when he’s had a 24-plus win team: Final Four, NCAA Champion, Final Four, Final Four, NCAA Runner-Up. Wow.

WHY TO HATE: Michigan State was 8-4 on the road this year, but only one of those eight victories came against an NCAA Tournament team (Purdue).

The Spartans barely shoot any threes, but can you blame them? They hit only 33.3 percent of them. Only one regular (Chris Allen, 40.8) hits better than 35 percent.

This team turns the ball over a lot; the Spartans give the ball away 14 times per game (as a comparison, Wisconsin’s average is 9.0).

THE VERDICT: Michigan State has a shot to return to the Final Four, and it’ll be a huge upset if they don’t at least make it to the Elite Eight.
Minnesota (21-13)

WHY TO LOVE: Minnesota is hot, riding a 7-3 clip entering the NCAA Tournament. They knocked off Michigan State in double overtime and debacled Purdue on Saturday.

The Gophers are pretty balanced; their top two scorers are experienced guards – senior Lawrence Westbrook (12.7 ppg) and junior Blake Hoffarber (10.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg). They have the size with two sophomores: 6-11 Ralph Sampson III (8.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg) and 6-10 Colton Iverson (4.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg). Iverson has been scoring double digits consistently recently, so don’t be fooled by that average; he’s been instrumental in their Big Ten Tournament run.

Minnesota had the best three-point percentage in the Big Ten this season, knocking down 40.5 percent of its long balls. The team features three dangerous shooters: Westbrook (42.1%), Hoffarber (48.0) and Devoe Joseph (39.0).

WHY TO HATE: The Gophers violate Rule No. 4 of my NCAA Tournament Credo. They were just 3-7 on the road, which includes losses at Indiana, Northwestern and Michigan (by 28).

If Minnesota wins the Big Ten Tournament, they will also violate Rule No. 2; unexpected underdogs who win their conference tournament have a dubious history in the NCAA Tournament.

THE VERDICT: Credit Minnesota for its impressive Big Ten Tournament run, but I don’t think they’ll win a game in the Big Dance.
Ohio State (27-7)

WHY TO LOVE: Everyone wrote off the Buckeyes when 6-7 junior swingman Evan Turner broke two bones in his back. Turner, however, came back way ahead of schedule and has been playing at an extremely high level. How high? In his final five games prior to the Big Ten Tournament, Turner averaged 21.6 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. He’s easily one of the top players in the country, and he’s capable of carrying Ohio State deep into the NCAA Tournament.

Turner is just one of four Buckeyes to average more than 12 points per game. The others: sophomore guard William Buford (14.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg), junior guard Jon Diebler (12.6 ppg) and junior swingman David Lighty (12.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg).

Ohio State shoots well from beyond (37.9%). Four regulars hit better than 36 percent: Buford (36.5), Diebler (41.9), Lighty (38.5) and Simmons (37.7).

The Buckeyes play excellent defense, limiting opponents to 60.4 points per game.

Ohio State is just 6-5 on the road, but 6-2 with Turner in the lineup. They’ve won at Michigan State and Purdue.

This team is on fire; they finished the regular season on a 10-1 clip.

WHY TO HATE: I really can’t find anything. They hit 69 percent of their free throws, but that’s not terrible. You know a team is good when you have to reach to find a weakness.

Doesn’t fulfill all five requisites in the Portrait of a Champion (returning head coach, ~~scored 76 ppg~~, 10+ margin of victory, in the tournament last year, seeded 1-4).

THE VERDICT: Evan Turner is arguably the top player in the country, and he has a great supporting cast. It would not shock me at all if Ohio State won the national championship. I’ll probably have them in my Final Four.
Purdue (27-5)

WHY TO LOVE: The Baby Boilermakes have grown up. Once a young, scrappy upstart, Purdue is a veteran club whose top five scorers are all upperclassmen. This team went to the Sweet 16 last year, so they definitely have ample experience.

Two dynamic players: E’Twaun Moore (16.7 ppg) and JaJuan Johnson (14.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg).

Purdue’s defense impressively limits foes to just 60.6 points per game.

The Boilermakers are 8-2 on the road; they’ve won at Ohio State and Michigan.

WHY TO HATE: Robbie Hummel (15.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg) is done for the year with a knee injury. Purdue has played miserably since losing him; the Minnesota blowout in the Big Ten semi-final could be a sign of things to come.

Three-point shooting is suspect; Purdue hits just 32.6 percent from beyond the arc as a team. No regular makes better than 36.4 percent of his threes. This will be a major problem if they fall behind.

Doesn’t fulfill all five requisites in the Portrait of a Champion (returning head coach, ~~scored 76 ppg~~, 10+ margin of victory, in the tournament last year, seeded 1-4).

THE VERDICT: I thought Purdue had a chance at the Elite Eight before the Hummel injury. Now, they’ll be lucky to win a game.
Wisconsin (23-8)

WHY TO LOVE: Bo Ryan is one of the top coaches in the nation. His record in the NCAA Tournament is 11-8, and he has lost in the first round only once. It should be no surprise that Wisconsin allows only 56.1 points per game and turns the ball over only nine times per contest.

Ryan’s 2010 club includes four double-digit scorers: senior guard Trevon Hughes (15.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.7 apg), junior forward Jon Leuer (14.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg), senior guard Jason Bohannon (12.0 ppg) and sophomore guard Jordan Taylor (10.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.6 apg).

Hughes (39.6%) and Bohannon (41.1) are two excellent three-point shooters.

WHY TO HATE: The Badgers were 5-5 on the road, but those five victories came against Penn State, Northwestern, Michigan, Indiana and Illinois. This means that they violate Rule No. 4 of my NCAA Tournament Credo.

Wisconsin also violates Rule No. 5; the team averaged just 67.9 points per game. Their offensive struggles will be their undoing in the NCAA Tournament.

Doesn’t fulfill all five requisites in the Portrait of a Champion (returning head coach, ~~scored 76 ppg~~, 10+ margin of victory, in the tournament last year, seeded 1-4).

THE VERDICT: Wisconsin never profiles well as an NCAA Tournament team, and the numbers always say they should lose in the first round. But that’s not going to happen because Ryan is such a great coach. However, the Badgers’ offensive struggles will prevent them from advancing past the Sweet 16 – if they even make it there.