2025 NFL Picks – Week 20: Texans at Patriots

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Drake Maye won his first playoff game, which is a rarity for any signal-caller. Quarterbacks making their first playoff start were 19-41 heading into last weekend, but Maye overcame the odds, albeit with some turnovers involved. Maye left some points on the table with his multiple give-aways, but came up big in the clutch to find Hunter Henry for a touchdown.

Maye will have his work cut out for him in this matchup. The Texans have an elite defensive line and terrific secondary players behind them. The Steelers couldn’t muster a single point in the second half of the Monday night game, though there are two things New England has that Pittsburgh lacked. The first is a quarterback who can move. Maye can beat any defense with his legs, while Aaron Rodgers is a statue quarterback at this stage of his career. Second, the Patriots have a better offensive line than the Steelers possess. It’s not an elite blocking unit, but Maye will have better protection than Rodgers, if only by default.

Maye won’t be able to count on his rushing attack – the Texans are fourth against the run – but he could make good use out of his tight ends. The Texans are just above average against the position, so Maye should be able to connect with Henry and Austin Hooper.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans scored 30 points Monday night, but NPCs and those just checking box scores believe that C.J. Stroud had an amazing game. I know this because all I saw on X was people saying, “C.J. Stroud has taken the Texans to the second round in all three seasons!” The only manner in which the number three is significant with Stroud is the number of turnovers he committed against the Steelers. Stroud made a couple of big-time throws, but was rather underwhelming overall.

Stroud battled a team with a talented pass rush, but one that also had some major holes in the secondary. This is a far tougher matchup for Stroud because the Patriots have excellent defensive backs to go along with a pass rush that made life extremely difficult for Justin Herbert last week. Obviously, Herbert is not well protected at all, but it’s not like Stroud has terrific blocking in front of him either.

The Texans were able to move the chains despite Stroud’s struggles via Woody Marks’ great runs. The rookie eclipsed 100 rushing yards, but could have trouble doing so this week, given that he won’t be battling Pittsburgh’s 20th-ranked rush defense again.

RECAP: When I initially saw that this line was New England -2.5, I immediately knew that I’d like the host. I have the Patriots a few points better than the Texans, so with home field and the one day of extra rest considered, I made this line New England -4.5. We were getting two points of value, which doesn’t sound overly important until you consider that we were going through the key number of three.

The sharps must have thought the same thing because they bet the Patriots very quickly at -2.5, moving this line to -3. We’re no longer going through three, which is a bummer.

However, the Patriots still seem like a fine play at -3. They have the advantage concerning quarterback play, blocking, and preparation time/rest. The Texans have the better defense, but it’s not like New England has a poor defense. It’s ranked 11th since the midway point of the season, which should be good enough to keep Houston’s offense in check.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -2.5.

Computer Model: Patriots -6.

The Vegas.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 52% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Patriots are 47-29 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Patriots -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather:

Week 20 NFL Pick: Patriots 26, Texans 20
Patriots -3 (3 Units)
Over 41 (0 Units)