2025 NFL Picks – Week 20: 49ers at Seahawks

The Matchup. Edge: .

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 28-53-1 heading into Week 18.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

49ers +3

Bears +1.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns, as well as Week 13, with a 1-2 record. Things were once again awful in Week 14, with the public going 2-5. In Week 15, the public was 2-3.

It took 16 weeks, but the public finally won, going 3-2 in Week 16. Hooray! But then they went 1-3 in Week 17 and 1-2 in Week 18. Booo!

The playoffs have been good to the public so far. The public teams went 2-0 in the wild card round. Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

49ers +7.5

Bears +4

It’s interesting that the public is betting two underdogs.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s an exchange I had with someone who posted negatively on one of our completed ladders from the weekend:

I’ve gotten hate on occasion on winning plays. It’s rare, but it’s happened before. Here’s the rest of this exchange:

This person has a condition that the medical community refers to as mental retardation.

This next person is not mentally retarded, but he’s close:

The good news is that he doesn’t have weird numbers attached to his name. The bad news is that he doesn’t know the difference between your and you’re (and yore, probably), and he also doesn’t understand that I publish all of my results. There’s no reason for his little brain to wonder anything.

In this final piece of hate mail, someone quote tweeted something accurate I posted about AWFLs, who are the scourge of America:

Here’s what the quote tweeter wrote:

What a scumbag! This is the sort of behavior you saw from those who turned in their neighbors during the Holocaust, or those who turned in their neighbors during Covid, or basically Randall from the cartoon TV show Recess. This is a place in hell reserved for these individuals.

The funny thing is, I don’t work with these organizations. How can one work with NFL Draft, anyway? This is another mentally retarded person.

Here’s the rest of our interaction:

I have zero doubt in my mind that this person abuses women and/or children. He was clearly thinking about it when he made baseless accusations against me, so this is what we call projection.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers’ 23 points in Philadelphia was a surprise to some. They scored just three points in the prior game against the Seahawks and were battling the No. 3 defense in the NFL. Seven early points came on a fluky big play by Demarcus Robinson, but the Eagles couldn’t stop the 49ers when it counted most.

There was one big boost for the 49ers in the game against Philadelphia, and that was Trent Williams’ return to action. Williams wasn’t available for the Seattle game, but he played against the Eagles. I wondered if he wouldn’t be 100 percent coming off injury, and he wasn’t, but his presence allowed the 49ers to block better than they would have without him. Williams should be even better with nearly a week of rest. He’ll make a huge difference versus Seattle’s stout offensive front.

While Williams will be healthier, George Kittle – or as my dad mistakenly calls him, “Gary Kittles” – will be sidelined. While Jake Tonges has been a terrific replacement, Kittle will sorely be missed in this matchup because Seattle is one of the weakest teams against tight ends. The Seahawks, conversely, are No. 2 against the run, so Christian McCaffrey will get even less on the ground than he did against the Eagles.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Eagles scored just 19 points against the 49ers, but that doesn’t mean that San Francisco’s defense played well. Jalen Hurts made some horrific throws, while A.J. Brown’s three drops were killers. Lane Johnson’s unexpected absence also loomed large.

I’m expecting a better performance from Seattle’s offense against the San Francisco defense. The 49ers have no personnel capable of getting to the quarterback, which is huge against Sam Darnold. We know the issue with Darnold by now – he’s awful under pressure, but can perform well when kept clean. He’ll be kept clean in this game, allowing him to connect frequently with Jaxson Smith-Njigba.

The 49ers are better against the run than the pass, but only by default. They lost yet another linebacker a couple of weeks ago, which is why they looked so inept against Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet in Week 18. Saquon Barkley, who couldn’t run against anyone not named the Giants all year, generated 100 rushing yards last week. Walker and Charbonnet should be able to pick up where they left off in the regular-season finale.

RECAP: The Seahawks beat the 49ers by 10 a couple of weeks ago, doing so in San Francisco. Both teams had equal rest heading into that game, but that’s not the case this time. The NFL, in its infinite wisdom, scheduled the 49ers to play on a short week, while the Seahawks have the luxury of coming off a bye. I don’t understand why the NFL is doing this outside of monetary reasons. Roger Goodell, once again, will do anything it takes to make a quick buck.

The lack of rest and preparation time isn’t ideal for the 49ers, but I think they can overcome it for two reasons. First, they’re a good team, and it’s generally the bad teams that perform way worse on a short week. Second, they’ll have Williams available, which wasn’t the case in Week 18. It can’t be stated how important Williams is for the 49ers in general, let alone in a game against the league’s No. 2 pressure rate.

I’m not in love with this pick, but I’m going to take the points. We’re getting all the key numbers with a decent team, and I don’t think the Seahawks are this amazing squad where they should be favored by more than a touchdown versus a competent opponent. Aside from the Week 18 result, the Seahawks haven’t beaten an opponent of San Francisco’s caliber or better by more than eight points. And I know I’m not counting the win over the 49ers, but again, that was without Williams, who is extremely important in this matchup.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -7.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -6.5.

The Vegas.

The Vegas. Edge: .

Tons of money on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 77% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Seahawks are 64-50 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Seahawks are 12-19 ATS as a favorite of 6+ since 2017.

Opening Line: Seahawks -7.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather:

Week 20 NFL Pick: Seahawks 23, 49ers 17
49ers +7.5 (0 Units)
Under 45.5 (0 Units)