2025 NFL Picks – Week 20: Bills at Broncos

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

Week 19 Analysis: We had some great weeks to close out the regular season, but the wild card round of the playoffs was a disaster in terms of picking sides. Luckily, we made out extremely well with our live prop bets. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Rams, 5 units (loss): The Rams led 14-0 and 17-7. They looked like they were going to cruise to an easy victory until Matthew Stafford banged his finger on a helmet. Stafford was poor afterward until the final drive, but the damage had already been done.

Eagles, 8 units (loss): I thought Lane Johnson would play. When Johnson was declared out, the sharps hammered the 49ers. I didn’t feel as confident in the Eagles as I did before, but I still would have bet them heavily; just not at eight units. It goes to show that it’s better to have all the data available before locking in any bets.

Chargers, 3 units (loss): I’ve made so much money betting against quarterbacks making their first playoff starts, but that backfired this weekend. All three covered, albeit because of Stafford’s injured finger and a complete Green Bay meltdown. Drake Maye didn’t play well either, but Justin Herbert was far worse.

Steelers, 3 units (loss): This was 7-6 at halftime and 10-6 in the fourth quarter. The Steelers had a chance to cover before the strip-sack scoop and score, but the officials missed Aaron Rodgers getting struck in the head on what should’ve been a roughing-the-passer penalty. I’m not saying we definitely should have covered this one, but the Steelers should’ve had a chance.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Things looked grim for a while for Josh Allen. He suffered three separate injuries in the victory against the Jaguars. He was 11-of-12 for 110 yards before banging his finger, and it didn’t take very long for him to injure his knee on a scramble. Allen looked a bit worse than usual for a while, but then he put together a great drive in the fourth quarter to win the game, albeit doing so too quickly because taking a knee on first down would have been the smarter approach.

Nevertheless, Allen will move on to the divisional round. He should be much healthier with nearly a week removed from the injuries. He’ll have a tough matchup on paper, as the Broncos are known for having a stellar defense, but that is misleading. I’m not here to say that Denver has a poor defense by any means, but the Broncos ranked “just” 11th in defensive EPA in the second half of the season. The Packers scored 26 points against them before losing Christian Watson and Zach Tom, while the Jaguars lit them up for 34 points. Trevor Lawrence threw all over the Broncos, who couldn’t pressure him at all. Lawrence is typically well protected, but so is Allen. And like Lawrence, Allen will be able to utilize his legs to pick up some first downs.

Allen will make good use of his tight ends. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox in Box have been very productive over the second half of the season, and that should continue to be the case against a Denver defense that was just 17th against tight ends. The Broncos have some liabilities in the secondary as well – outside of Patrick Surtain II, of course – so Allen will also be able to attack those areas.

DENVER OFFENSE: Allen is the best quarterback remaining in the playoffs. On the other end of the spectrum, there’s Bo Nix. While Nix has had some great moments in the clutch this year, he’s mostly disappointed otherwise. He’s had far too many games in which he’s displayed horrible mechanics.

Nix has struggled against the Raiders and the 22nd-ranked Chiefs defense. Now, he takes on the Bills, who are terrific against the pass. They have a strong pass rush and an excellent secondary to keep Nix’s receivers from doing too much damage.

The weakness of the Bills, of course, is the run defense. They’ve been trampled by many teams this season, but if there’s one team remaining in the playoffs that can’t take advantage of that, it’s probably Denver. The Broncos are 20th in rush offense EPA. R.J. Harvey is explosive, but dances behind the line of scrimmage too much. He can break a long gain, but takes far too many losses or minimal gains as a result.

RECAP: This spread isn’t even close to what I have calculated. It easily has the greatest disparity between my number and the actual line. The spread is just pick ’em, and yet my line has the Bills favored by 5.5.

If this seems outrageous, you may not have been monitoring the Broncos very closely this year. They’ve done nothing but beat bad or mediocre teams in close games. They beat the Raiders 10-7, the Jets 13-11, the Titans 20-12, the Marcus Mariota-led Redskins 27-26, the Giants 33-32, the Chris Oladokun-led Chiefs 20-13, and the backup Chargers 19-3. If the Broncos had one or two close calls against these teams, that’d be one thing, but this was every week with the Broncos. Their only two convincing victories came against the Jake Browning-led Bengals, which was close for a while, and the Cowboys before they acquired Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson.

Against the top-tier teams, the Broncos struggled to maintain a winning record. They were 3-2 against Groups A and B, which includes a home blowout loss to the Jaguars. They beat the Packers, but only after Watson, Tom, and Micah Parsons got injured. They beat the Eagles, but only after Philadelphia fell asleep while being up 17-3 in the fourth quarter. They beat the Chiefs, 22-19, but that Kansas City team was on the verge of collapse. The Cowboys beat the Chiefs by just as many points.

The Broncos are the most overrated team in the playoffs. Nix has been horrible at times, the running game is subpar, and the defense isn’t even ranked in the top 10. The Bills, conversely, have the superior quarterback and pass defense. I have them 6-7 points better than the Broncos on a neutral field, so this pick ’em line is an absolute gift. This is my January NFL Pick of the Month.

Our Week 20 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Pick.

Computer Model: Broncos -2.

The Vegas.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 52% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Broncos are 36-19 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather:

Week 20 NFL Pick: Bills 27, Broncos 17
Bills PK (8 Units – January NFL Pick of the Month)
Under 46.5 (0 Units)