2024 NFL Picks – Week 21: Redskins at Eagles

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

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Week 20 Analysis: We had a good week. It was very close to being an amazing week. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Redskins, 3 units (win): This one was never in doubt. Thanks to Evan Daniel for talking me into increasing my unit count on the Redskins.

Eagles, 5 units (loss): Ugh. Jake Elliott. Had he hit one of his missed extra points, we would have pushed. Had he hit both, we would have covered and won $1,750 on the week. Of course, the Rams kicker didn’t miss any extra points… By the way, if you’re an Eagles bettor, consider sending an invoice to Elliott or his agent to recoup your losses.

Bills, 5 units (win): I’m still confused as to why the Ravens were favored in Buffalo. The Bills were running away with this game for a while. I considered middling at halftime, but didn’t see a number I liked. I thought we’d get a favorable line if Buffalo scored on the initial possession in the third quarter, but that didn’t happen.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

Imagine being so completely wrong about everything. I guess mock draft accuracy is tough to check if you don’t know where to look, but the pick results are right on the page! Kurt Bozwell isn’t the brightest cookie in the toolbox.

In fairness, I wasn’t too bright:

When criticized for a bad opinion, just blame the brainworms. It works if you’re in school, too. Failed a test? When your parents begin yelling at you, just blame the brainworms!

Speaking of brainworms, some people believe that you can only do one thing at a time:

This guy must not be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. Why doesn’t he think that I can’t make picks and congratulate our former president and his gorgeous husband on a lovely picture?

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I saw a prominent account on Twitter declare that there was no overarching narrative surrounding the Eagles if they were to win the Super Bowl. What about the revival of the NFL running back? Saquon Barkley was tremendous once again versus the Rams. Barkley, who could have easily broken Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record had he gone for it, exploded for 205 rushing yards and two touchdowns on Sunday.

Barkley has an even better matchup in this game. The Rams entered last weekend ranked eighth against the run. The Redskins are 20th. In a loss, Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 105 yards and two touchdowns on only 14 carries, so imagine what Barkley will be able to accomplish on greater volume.

Jalen Hurts is also a rushing threat, provided he’s healthy. Hurts injured his leg on an awkward tackle in the second half against the Rams and was a shell of his former self after that. However, reports indicate that the injury isn’t very concerning, though it remains to be seen how accurate that is. Hurts scrambled for 39 yards and a touchdown in his only full game against Washington this year.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: If Hurts matches that rushing total, there’s a decent chance he could outgain Jayden Daniels on the ground. That may seem like an odd thing to say because Daniels was so prolific against the Lions on Saturday night. However, the Eagles, knowing how to clamp down on scrambling quarterbacks because of their experience versus Hurts in practice, limited Daniels to just 18 rushing yards in the initial matchup. Daniels had a better second performance, but there was a quit factor with the Eagles, who lost Hurts to injury in the first quarter.

The Eagles are great against the run in general. They rank first against it, though I’d expect a slight decline in effectiveness with Nakobe Dean sidelined. Still, this is a Philadelphia squad that put the clamps on Derrick Henry in a December matchup. Brian Robinson Jr., who has been underwhelming in far too many games this year, won’t get much on the ground.

Daniels will have to do everything himself, which was the case in the first matchup. Daniels was woeful in that game, going 22-of-32 for 191 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Those numbers don’t seem horrible, but keep in mind that they were enhanced by a garbage-time drive that featured Daniels’ touchdown to Zach Ertz. The Eagles have a stellar secondary that should get back Quinyon Mitchell from the injury he suffered against the Rams, so I don’t expect Daniels to play nearly as well as he did versus the porous Detroit defense on Saturday night.

RECAP: This is a rather simple handicap, save for one caveat. The Eagles closed -7 against the Rams, yet opened -4.5 against the Redskins. The Rams and Redskins are even teams – they are both Group B teams, and the hypothetical line between the two said as much – so why did the Eagles open -4.5 versus Washington when they closed -7 against the Rams?

This is classic public overreaction. Everyone wants to bet the Redskins because of what they saw Saturday night. The public is backing them at an extreme rate. Yet, everyone who is betting Washington has quickly forgotten that the Redskins would have lost to the Buccaneers had Baker Mayfield not fumbled on the end-around to Jalen McMillan, or if the Tampa center hadn’t botched the snap on a third down of Tampa’s final drive. The Redskins also had issues dispatching the Cowboys in the final week of the season despite going against Trey Lance. They also needed to go to overtime to beat the Falcons at home. They’re a good team, but they’re not a great team, and they do not belong in the NFC Championship.

Despite all of this, the public is betting the Redskins with poor line value. Fading such an overreaction and getting great line value is what handicapping the NFL is all about. This is as simple as it gets. The Eagles are a very easy five-unit play.

Except, for the one caveat. That would be Hurts’ health. We don’t quite know how injured he is. There are reports that the injury he suffered isn’t severe, but does that mean he’ll be 90 to 100 percent, or 60 to 70 percent for this game?

We’ll obviously be monitoring the practice reports throughout the week. If Hurts misses practices, or is limited all three days, it’ll be difficult to justify five units on Philadelphia. If, however, Hurts is able to practice fully most days, then we can wager a lot on the Eagles, who should beat the only non-Group A team in the final four.

Our Week 21 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

The Redskins are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Washington: 65% (43,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Redskins are 24-35 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Opening Line: Eagles -4.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

The Redskins are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Washington: 65% (43,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Redskins are 24-35 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Opening Line: Eagles -4.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .