2024 NFL Picks – Week 21: Bills at Chiefs

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

My friend Drew passed away five weeks ago after a battle with cancer. He was a great guy and a huge Eagles fan. He was very much into fantasy football; he was commissioner of one of my fantasy leagues for two decades. He’s survived by his wife and three young kids (ages 12, 10, 6), who will grow up without their father. If you can, please consider donating to the family to help them through this difficult time. Here’s the GoFundMe page for Drew if you’re able to give any support.

On a much less serious note, this is a reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Toilet Nametag. I got another tooth extracted, and mayhem ensued.

This week on CBS, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas, home of the who the heck cares because I’m once again not covering my Philadelphia Eagles! Guys, this is an outrage! I’m the head honcho because I’m the play-by-play guy, and Mother says I’m the best, and yet the corporate heads won’t listen to me at all because I want to cover my Philadelphia Eagles, and they keep sending me to stupid games that don’t mean anything! Who even cares who wins this game!? It’s meaningless because they will lose to my Philadelphia Eagles!

Emmitt: Thanks, FuSoYa. All this talk about corporate head got me itching because head the opposite of tail on a coin, and I have a gambling problem betting the coin flop in football game. I has been in gambler ananimals for these, and I thinked I had it on control, but you saying the word head make me want to betted the coin flop again. Anybody want to take action? I gived you 2:1 odd on head because I has a real good feeling about tail. As the wise man once said, tail never wronged.

Reilly: Emmitt, are you aware of how much trouble I’ll be in if Mother catches me gambling? She’ll take away my Nick Foles bobbleheads and won’t serve me macaroni and cheese for dinner. She’ll probably make me eat something disgusting like broccoli! Eww! So don’t tempt me with your illegal gambling, Emmitt!

Tollefson: Reilly, I am a man of virtue, so I don’t believe in gambling either. I do love casinos, however, because women go there to get drunk and gamble. This makes them easy targets. When they wander away from slot machines, I follow them, and when no one’s looking, I place a bag over their head until they pass out. I then take them out of the casino, telling anyone who’s looking that they’ve had too much to drink. Before these women know it, they’re awakening in my cellar and serving me as their slave for the rest of their lives! But please, do not associate me with gambling. I am a man of God and will not stand for it.

Reilly: Tolly, tell me about it. Gambling is not allowed in the Reilly household. Mother even banned Yahtzee. Speaking Yahtzee, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. I’m reporting first that members of the Chiefs coaching staff have orally pleasured the officials and will be getting calls their way once again. No one beats Charissa Thompson reporting. Anyhoo, we are joined by our penultimate foreign leader, but he’s not a foreign leader. Donald Trump, what are you doing here? You’re President of the United States, and I’d like to report first that the United States has football games.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, wrong, wrong, I’m not just the President of the United States, the best president, by the way, and it’s not even close, frankly, or at least that’s what I’ve been told, but I come here today as the President of Greenland because we’ve just purchased Greenland, and we got a great deal by the way, the best deal anyone could have possibly gotten, frankly, because Sleepy Joe and Crooked Kamala probably would have paid billions and billions for Greenland, billions and billions that they would have taken away from the American people, but I got us a great deal, the best deal anyone has ever seen, and we did not spend billions and billions, we spent just billions on Greenland, and some people have come to me and said, “Sir! How did you get such a great deal on Greenland, it’s such an incredible deal, it’s the best deal anyone has ever seen,” and I tell them that it’s truly the greatest deal, no one can believe it, that we got Greenland on pennies on the dollar, when Sleepy Joe and Crooked Kamala would have spent billions and billions on the dollar.

Charissa Thompson: Sorry, I wasn’t listening. I heard something about billions. That was a good show until they went super woke. But please tell us, why should there be games in Greenland? I’ll try to listen this time.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, everyone should be listening to me because I am not only the President of the United States, but also the President of the Gulf of America, and the President of Greenland, which we will be re-naming to Orangeland, which is something everyone said was the best idea they ever heard, and I think it’s one of the best ideas to ever come out of anyone’s mouth, frankly, because orange is a much better color than green, unless you’re talking about money, which I have a lot of, but orange is a great color, too, which is why I dyed my skin orange at the tanning salon, which is something everyone should do because everyone’s complexion is much better when it’s orange, and everyone agrees, because that’s what everyone tells me, they say, “Sir, how did you get your skin so orange because it looks like the best skin anyone has ever seen,” and I tell them that it’s hard to get this orange hue, which is the best hue, and everyone agrees, and it’s much better than Sleepy Joe’s hue, which looks like zombie skin because Sleepy Joe is basically a walking corpse because he’s a total disgrace and a total fraud, and the worst president anyone has ever seen, much worse than Trump, who is the best president, and everyone agrees, or at least that’s what I’ve been told.

Reilly: Donld Trump, now that you’re president again, can you please get me to broadcast the Eagles games!? Please talk to the corporate heads!

Kamala Harris: First, let me say this: I grew up in a middle-class family. I have been unburdened by what has been, and I will be unburdened by what will be, and what has always been unburdened, and what will also be unburdened in an alternate timeline of unburdening. Second, am I hearing something about corporate heads? Kevin, I wanted to sleep with you to get to the top, but now I’m hearing that there are corporate heads that I can have sex with to get even higher on the food chain? Sign me up, baby, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA!

Joy Taylor: Get out of my way, Kamala! I’m younger than you, and I have bigger boobs. There’s no way the corporate heads would want to sleep with you over me. We may have lost our freedoms with Donald Trump taking over, but I can still sleep my way to the top better than anyone!

Kamala Harris: First, let me say this: I grew up in a middle-class family. When my middle-class daddy asked me what I want most, I said, “FWEEDOM.” Isn’t that great? When I was a child, I said I wanted “FWEEDOM” the most because as a child, I like freedom, but I said the ‘R’ with a ‘W’ because I was a child, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. But speaking of Trump, I didn’t think there was a point in sexual relations with him because I already rose very high in American politics, but now I’m seeing an opportunity to rise in Orangeland politics, so you looking pretty good, Donald, want to get drinks later? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Joy Taylor: Donald Trump may have taken away all my freedoms in America, but not in Orangeland! President Donald, take me, so I can become the Princess of Orangeland!

Wolfley: LADIES, IF I MAY, THERE IS ALREADY A PRINCESS OF ORANGELAND. SHE IS A TUBE OF TOOTHPASTE WITH A PAPER SHREDDER FOR ARMS AND A DESK LAMP FOR LEGS, AND SHE IS THE GREATEST PRINCESS OF ORANGELAND HISTORY.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! New Daddy, it sounds like the women in the booth no longer have interest in me. What a relief! Mother said that if I held hands with someone before marriage, she would lock me in my room and throw away the key. I’m only a 73-year-old flower who hasn’t blossomed yet, according to Mother.

Jay Cutler: A 73-year-old weirdo, you mean.

Reilly: What was that, New Daddy? You mumbled so I didn’t hear you. You must have said I was the best son ever!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about members of family, Kevin. You mentioned son, Kevin, which you are to Jay Cutler, which is very weird, Kevin. Only a sick person would come up with something like that, Kevin. Let’s talk about brothers, Kevin. How about sisters, Kevin? What do you think about mothers, Kevin, because you’re a total mama’s boy, Kevin? Care to share about fathers, Kevin? Because your father walked out on you, Kevin. And then there’s bad touch uncles, Kevin, which you would be if you had a nephew or niece, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I COULDN’T PROMISE NOT TO TOUCH ANYONE, BUT SAYING I’M A TOTAL MAMA’S BOY IN A NEGATIVE LIGHT IS VERY OFFENSIVE! SO WHAT IF I MASSAGE MOTHER’S FEET AND PAINT HER NAILS, AND REFUSE TO TOUCH WOMEN BECAUSE SHE SAYS SO!? THESE ARE ALL GOOD THINGS, AND YOU’RE JUST JEALOUS BECAUSE NO ONE LOVES YOU! We’ll be back after this!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I didn’t think the Chiefs would have great success moving the chains against the Texans. Despite Kansas City’s victory, the team was outgained by Houston, 338-212. The Chiefs had some big plays, but they were rather inconsistent in their offensive success.

The reason I was pessimistic about Kansas City’s offense was the mismatch the Texans had with their terrific edge rushers against Kansas City’s poor offensive tackles. Patrick Mahomes took plenty of hits in the pocket, though he was bailed out by the officials on a couple of occasions. I expect Mahomes to be under duress again. The Bills don’t quite have the edge talent Houston possesses, but their ends can certainly get after the quarterback. Buffalo ranks 10th in pressure rate this season. I would expect Mahomes to get the ball out quickly and perhaps attack the slot, which has been a liability for the Bills. Xavier Worthy could thrive as a result.

The Bills have also played well against the run, at least since Matt Milano and some other defenders have returned from injury. Milano’s presence was huge in the rematch against the Ravens, as Derrick Henry didn’t quite trample over Buffalo’s defense for 199 yards like he did in the Week 4 matchup. The Chiefs obviously don’t run the ball nearly as well as Baltimore, so the Bills should be able to clamp down on Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Chiefs also can shut down the run. Like the Bills (and also the Eagles), they rank in the top 10 against the rush. They also were able to stymie Henry, albeit in the season opener. They’ll do a better job against James Cook than Baltimore did Sunday evening.

Though the Chiefs can restrict running backs, asking them to stop scrambling quarterbacks is a different story. Allen was able to run circles around their defense in the regular-season win, scrambling for 55 yards and a touchdown on 12 runs. Kansas City was even worse against Lamar Jackson; the Baltimore quarterback scrambled for 122 yards in the opener. The Chiefs didn’t play any other mobile quarterbacks this season unless you want to count Bo Nix. Allen should be able to have a nice game on the ground.

Allen could succeed as a passer as well. The Chiefs had a pass-funnel defense this season. They were particularly weak against No. 2 receivers and tight ends. It’s difficult to trust Buffalo’s secondary threats after Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman were blanked in consecutive games, but Dalton Kincaid should have a strong performance.

RECAP: I wrote that the Eagles-Redskins game was a simple handicap. This game is a lot tougher. Unlike the NFC Championship, there is no disparity between the talent level of these teams. The Eagles are Group A, while the Redskins are Group B. In this game, both the Bills and Chiefs are Group A teams.

Because this is an evenly matched game, this line should be -1.5 or -2, given that home teams are awarded 1.5 or two points these days. I personally give 1.5 points to most home teams, so with the Chiefs getting one more half point for the extra day of rest, it would make sense that this line would be -2.

However, the matchups seem to favor the Bills. Kansas City’s troubles against mobile quarterbacks have to be worrying against Allen. I also don’t trust the Chiefs tackles to protect Mahomes.

I want to pick the Bills with confidence, but then I remember the officiating. The Chiefs always seem to benefit from one or two big calls in every big game, and there’s no reason to believe things will be any different in this contest.

I’m sorry if this flimsy analysis is disappointing, but I believe the AFC Championship will come down to one or two crucial calls, and I don’t trust Clete Blakeman to officiate this game fairly. I’m still going to be on the Bills because I like their matchup edges, but there’s no way I’m going to bet a lot on Buffalo when the fix could be in again.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

The Bills are a big public dog.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 77% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 99-25 SU, 65-57 ATS (51-44 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather:

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

The Bills are a big public dog.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 77% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Patrick Mahomes is 99-25 SU, 65-57 ATS (51-44 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: