Buffalo Bills Rookies Forecast

By Charlie Campbell – @draftcampbell





Solid Starter

A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa – Round 2
For a lot of the leadup the 2020 NFL Draft, Epenesa was a consensus first-round pick. It wasn’t until later on in the process that he slipped to the second day of the draft in projections. Numerous team sources said they graded Epenesa in the second round, and some had him graded in the the third round. The 6-foot-6, 275-pound Epenesa ended up being a really nice value for the Bills considering they did not have a first-round pick after the Stefon Diggs trade. As soon as his rookie year, Epenesa could be quality contributor given his size, strength and tenacity.

Epenesa is an asset as a run defender. He has a strong build with length to set a tough edge at the point of attack. Epenesa can hold his ground in run defense, maintaining his gap and rarely ever getting pushed back. Epenesa has the power and is really good with his hands to fight off blocks to get in on tackles of ball-carriers. In the ground game, Iowa generally had Epenesa holding his gap rather than trying to shoot the gap and get into the backfield, so that hurt his tackles for a loss numbers, but his solid technique leads to him entering the pros as a plus run defender.

In the pass rush, Epenesa flashes ability to get after the quarterback. He has a strong bull rush and can ride tackles straight back into the signal-caller. With his strong hands, Epenesa also is dangerous to grab a hold of the tackle and then toss them to the side to get free of his blocker. Once he gets free, Epenesa has a burst to close on the quarterback.

The Bills were an excellent landing spot for Epenesa. Head coach Sean McDermott is one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL, and Epenesa is a good scheme fit for Buffalo’s tough and physical defense. The Bills added Mario Addison in free agency, but he and Jerry Hughes are aging veterans who aren’t the biggest or strongest run defenders. Epenesa will probably be on the field in running situations because he is stronger and stouter in the ground game than those veterans. That rotation would help keep Hughes and Addison fresh to rush the passer on third downs, but Epenesa will get some of those reps as well so Addison and Hughes are fresh for the fourth quarter. So while Epenesa will start out as a rotational contributor, I think he will be a solid starter for Buffalo by the end of his rookie contract.

2019: Cody Ford, OT
2018: Harrison Phillips, DT
2017: Dion Dawkins, OT/G
2016: Reggie Ragland, LB
2015: John Miller, G
2014: Cyrus Kouandjio, OT
2013: Robert Woods, WR



Most Likely To Bust

Gabriel Davis, WR, Central Florida – Round 3
This was a tough choice as the current Bills front office has been doing a superb job of drafting. General manager Brandon Beane, director of player personnel Dan Morgan, and director of college scouting Terrance Gray have done a superb job of building a core for the roster that is comprised of tough, physical football players. I didn’t really see a player who really stood out as having serious bust potential, but of Buffalo’s three picks in the first four rounds of the 2020 NFL Draft, Davis seems to have the most risk.

The concern with Davis is if he has the speed to separate in the NFL. The 6-foot-2, 216-pounder is put together well, but his 4.54-second 40 time at the combine illustrated the concerns from some teams that Davis could have problems with getting open against pro cornerbacks. That is why Davis slid to the fourth round and is the risk for why he may not translate to the pro level.

2019: Dawson Know, TE
2018: Josh Allen, QB
2017: Tre’Davious White, CB
2016: Cardale Jones, QB
2015: Karlos Williams, RB
2014: Ross Cockrell, CB
2013: E.J. Manuel, QB



Potential Boom Pick

Zack Moss, RB, Utah – Round 1
Moss was one of the most steady and consistent backs in college football over the past three seasons, carrying the Utah offense in that time. With his combination of size, power and speed, Moss could be a superb NFL running back who has three-down starting ability and Pro Bowl potential.

If Moss (5-9, 223) can stay healthy in the NFL, there is no doubt that he has three-down starting potential. He is a hard-nosed runner who runs angry and often brings pain to defenders who try to tackle him. Coming downhill, Moss shows serious aggression to run through defenders and power through them to continue to add yards. He has the lower body strength to move the pile and keeps his legs moving after contact.

Even though Moss is a powerful runner, he is not a slow plodder because he has an element of speed. While he ran slowly at the combine, he plays with an element of speed, showing a burst to hit the hole before it closes and acceleration to the second level. In the open field, Moss has a second gear and does a better job of running away from the defense than one would expect. He will get caught from behind at times in the NFL, but he was not a slow back at Utah.

Moss has some moves in the open field to dodge tacklers, and while he is not super elusive, he is not completely a straight-line runner. On top of his strength and quickness, Moss has other good traits like very good contact balance, vision, patience and instincts.

In the passing game, Moss is a nice back to catch targets in the flat. He is smooth in space and has soft, reliable hands. As a pro, he could be a solid contributor as a receiver.

Some scouts and team evaluators thought that Moss had the physical talent and the tape of a potential late first-round pick, but medical concerns hurt his grade around the league. That is a surprising red flag considering he was durable at Utah. With another talented young back to help shoulder the load in Devin Singletary, Moss is going to a good situation where he does not have to be a bell-cow back immediately. I think with the talent young offense in Buffalo, Moss could be a boom pick for the Bills and was a steal as a third-rounder.

2019: Ed Oliver, DT
2018: Tremaine Edmunds, LB
2017: Zay Jones, WR
2016: Adolphus Washington, DT
2015: Ronald Darby, CB
2014: Sammy Watkins, WR
2013: Marquise Goodwin, WR



Future Depth Player

Jake Fromm, QB, Georgia – Round 5
The Bills landed a nice value for a backup quarterback with Fromm in the fifth round. While Fromm does not have a powerful arm, a big frame, or running ability, he is a smart, accurate passer who knows how to win. Backup quarterbacks have a tough job of needing to be ready to play without getting a lot of reps in practice. Hence being intelligent is a necessity to being a good backup, because backups have to know how to execute the plays without having gotten the reps. Fromm has great intelligence and intangibles, so he is an excellent fit as a backup quarterback at the pro level. His intelligence will also be an asset in the film room and on the sideline in helping starter Josh Allen. While Fromm may not have the skill set to be a starter as a pro, he could have a very long career as one of the most dependable backup quarterbacks in the NFL.

2019: Jaquan Johnson, S
2018: Siran Neal, S
2017: Nathan Peterman, QB
2016: Jonathan Williams, RB
2015: Nick O’Leary, TE
2014: Seantrel Henderson, OT
2013: Duke Williams, S





Walt’s 2020 NFL Draft Grades:

54. A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa – A+ Grade
Back to sanity… The Bills’ terrific offseason continues. A.J. Epenesa isn’t a great athlete, which is why he fell out of Round 1. He could have still been chosen on Thursday, so I love this value. Epenesa doesn’t fill a huge need, but the Bills are great pretty much everywhere, so it makes sense for them to add talent, regardless of the position.


86. Zack Moss, RB, Utah – A- Grade
I had Zack Moss slotted to the Bills at this very spot in many updates of my 2020 NFL Mock Draft because it makes so much sense. Moss projects as a great complement for Devin Singletary. Buffalo needed one with Frank Gore set to move on. Moss could’ve gone a bit earlier than this, so I like this pick quite a bit.


128. Gabriel Davis, WR, Central Florida – B+ Grade
Gabriel Davis has great size (6-3, 212), and I thought he could be chosen in the third round. There’s some question about his ability to separate from coverage, but the potential is certainly there. This doesn’t fill a need, but Davis was one of the better players available.




167. Jake Fromm, QB, Georgia – B Grade
Wow, Jake Fromm went to an AFC East team, but it wasn’t the Patriots. The Bills needed competition behind Josh Allen for the No. 2 spot, and Fromm could end up being the backup. Fromm, who was the worst quarterback at the combine except for Shea Patterson, possesses no upside, but he’s smart and has a high floor as a reserve.


188. Tyler Bass, K, Georgia Southern – C Grade
I’m more OK with a kicker in the sixth round, especially when it’s one of the top two players at the “position.” Still, this is meh.


207. Isaiah Hodgins, WR, Oregon State – C+ Grade
I don’t know if Isaiah Hodgins can beat NFL coverage, but he’s a huge target at 6-4, 210, and he has nice ball skills. There’s some potential here, so I don’t hate the pick, but Buffalo may have a receiving corps that’s too crowded for Hodgins.


239. Dane Jackson, CB, Pittsburgh – B+ Grade
I’ve constantly had Dane Jackson in the sixth round of my mock draft, so this is a mini-bargain. A team can never have too much cornerback depth, so I like Buffalo’s latest pick.


2020 NFL Draft Team Grade: A- . Follow Walter @walterfootball for updates.

Buffalo Bills Season Preview





2024 NFL Mock Draft - March 26


NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


NFL Picks - Feb. 12