Atlanta Falcons Rookies Forecast

By Charlie Campbell – @draftcampbell

Solid Starter

Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama – Round 1
Atlanta’s offense wasn’t the quite the same in 2017 as it was the prior year when the team made a run to the Super Bowl. The Falcons struggled to produce explosive plays when Julio Jones was injured, and that hurt their ability to run the ball as well. Atlanta was fortunate that Ridley fell to its first-round pick, and he was a tremendous value late in Round 1. With Ridley across from Jones, the Falcons have really improved the speed and play-making ability for their scoring attack.

Ridley has a lot of assets to his game as he is a fast receiver who is very adept at creating separation. With his quick feet and sudden athleticism, Ridley is a very good route-runner. He is silky smooth in his routes with no wasted steps or rounded off cuts. That makes him very tough on defensive backs as he can put his foot in the ground and explode out of cuts. His explosivity translates to him also having a second gear to break downfield, and he is dangerous with the ball in his hands. Ridley is a fast route-runner on short to intermediate routes, so he will be a nice third-down weapon as a pro to quickly uncover and present an open target for his quarterback. With his speed to run by defensive backs, Ridley stretches a defense over the top and is a true deep-threat receiver as well. He has the ability to take a slant to the house or run a go route and fly by defensive backs.

Jones is Atlanta’s No.1 receiver, and that won’t change after drafting Ridley. Even though Ridley was a worthy first-rounder, he is not the caliber of athlete or specimen that Jones is. However Ridley could be an excellent No. 2 receiver, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he quickly becomes a solid starter for Atlanta.

2017: Sean Harlow, G
2016: Austin Hooper, TE
2015: Vic Beasley, DE
2014: Jake Matthews, OT
2013: Desmond Trufant, CB

Most Likely To Bust

Ito Smith, RB, Southern Miss – Round 4
I don’t like to select third-day players as a “most likely to bust” because the odds are that the vast majority of picks from Day 3 don’t pan out in the NFL. Thus, it is not much of a prediction. I think Atlanta put together an excellent draft, however, and I don’t see any of their picks in Rounds 1-3 being serious candidates to bust. It isn’t until the Falcons’ fourth-rounder that I see a bust as a real possibility.

Smith was a steady runner for Southern Miss over the past three seasons, but he has some limitations for the NFL. The 5-foot-10, 200-pounder is an undersized back who will have to be protected from a big work load. Smith also is a quick runner, but he doesn’t have game-breaking speed. As a runner, he is a bit of a jack-of-all-trades and master-of-none. He won’t be overly fast or physical on a defense in the NFL.

Obviously as a fourth-round pick, nobody expects Smith to become a three-down starter and feature back. The Falcons already have two talented backs ahead of him in Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Freeman is locked up as the long-term starter and the engine of the Atlanta rushing attack. Coleman could leave in free agency after this season, but I would not be surprised if Atlanta adds a back next year to replace Coleman and Smith is relegated to being a third-stringer. One can certainly expect more competition for Smith, and I think Smith has the most potential not to translate to the NFL of the Falcons’ picks in the first four rounds of the 2018 NFL Draft.

2017: Takk McKinley, DE
2016: Deion Jones, LB
2015: Jalen Collins, CB
2014: Dez Southward, S
2013: Levine Toilolo, TE

Potential Boom Pick

Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado – Round 2
I think Oliver was a steal for the Falcons. He has a first-round skill set, yet slipped until late in the second round. One general manager from a team that thought Oliver could go in Round 1 told me they felt that Oliver slid because some teams had questions about his commitment to football after spending a lot of time competing in track. Those concerns weren’t wide spread from speaking to other teams, but it was in the mind of some. Some teams had Oliver graded in the second round because he was a press-man corner and their teams use more off-man and zone coverage. Without seeing Oliver play those techniques, he was more of a projection for them.

Still, I think the Falcons benefit by landing a potentially dynamic outside starting cornerback. The 6-foot, 201-pound Oliver is big corner who also has the speed to run with NFL receivers. Coming off a final year in which Oliver totaled 13 passes broken up, two interceptions and 25 tackles, he showed the ability to play on an island because the Buffaloes had him lined up in man coverage all the time. With his combination of size, speed, and cover ability, I think Oliver could emerge as an excellent NFL cornerback.

Another reason why I think Oliver could be a boom pick is because he will draw nice matchups. Desmond Trufant should get the No. 1 receiver on most plays, leaving Oliver the benefit of going against lesser receivers. That has helped Chris Harris and A.J. Bouye to become Pro Bowl-caliber corners for the Broncos and Jaguars, respectively. Oliver possesses a ton of upside with size and speed, plus he is going to a good coaching staff with talent around him. I think he has a real shot to be a boom pick for Atlanta.

2017: Duke Riley, LB
2016: Keanu Neal, S
2015: Tevin Coleman, RB
2014: Ra’Shede Hageman, DT
2013: Malliciah Goodman, DE

Future Depth Player

Russell Gage, WR, LSU – Round 6
The Falcons let Taylor Gabriel leave this offseason and could use more talent to rotate in at slot receiver. Calvin Ridley should do some of that, but Gage could also be a factor. He is an ultra-fast wideout who can take the top off a defense. On top of having under-utilized receiving talent, Gage is an excellent special teams contributor. Some team sources believe that Gage has Pro Bowl potential on special teams. With that kind of special teams skills while also offering speed to back up at wide receiver, I think Gage could become a very valuable depth player for Atlanta.

2017: Brian Hill, RB
2016: De’Vondre Campbell, LB
2015: Justin Hardy, WR
2014: Devonta Freeman, RB
2013: Robert Alford, CB

Walt’s 2018 NFL Draft Grades:

26. Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama A- Grade
Everyone was expecting the Falcons to pick a defensive lineman, or perhaps a blocker. Those would’ve fit the greatest needs, but receiver makes a ton of sense as well. The Falcons’ offense collapses whenever Julio Jones gets hurt – they lost at home to the Bills without him this past season – so acquiring a legitimate No. 2 wideout was very necessary. Ridley was once projected as a top-10 prospect, but this range makes more sense. Still, Ridley is a nice bargain at No. 26, and his terrific route running will allow him to develop quickly and contribute as soon as possible. I like this pick a lot, despite Ridley’s perceived declining draft stock.

58. Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado A+ Grade
I thought the Seahawks would move down for Isaiah Oliver into the 25-35 range. This is a big slip, and it’s unclear why. Oliver is a lengthy, athletic cornerback in the mold of Richard Sherman. Given that the Seahawks were interested in Oliver, it would make sense that the Falcons would be. This is a great pick, as Oliver and his size will help defend against the tall receivers in the NFC South.

90. Deadrin Senat, DT, South Florida B Grade
Deadrin Senat is a powerful nose tackle, but doesn’t have good length, which could be a problem in the pros. There’s some potential here for Senat to be a quality, rotational player, however, and I think the range makes sense for him in the third round. This is a decent choice.

126. Ito Smith, RB, Southern Miss D Grade
Meh. Ito Smith was a late-round prospect and doesn’t fit a need at all. The Falcons had bigger priorities than adding someone who could maybe become the No. 3 running back. This seems like a poor selection.

194. Russell Gage, WR, LSU B+ Grade
Russell Gage may not have been on many draft radars before his pro day, but he thrived then. He posted some terrific numbers and then looked great in the drills, prompting some teams to schedule visits for him. Gage certainly has loads of potential, and the Falcons needed a couple of receivers because they had nothing beyond Julio Jones.

200. Foye Oluokun, LB, Yale B Grade
The Falcons needed depth at linebacker, and I actually thought they’d address this earlier. Still, better late than never. Foye Oluokon is someone who has been discussed in the sixth or seventh round, so this is a logical choice.

2018 NFL Draft Team Grade: A- . Follow Walter @walterfootball for updates.

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