College Football Recruiting Experts Hits and Misses

First, 10 players expected to go in Round 1 of the 2019 NFL Draft who the recruiting rankings got right.

Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State:
Bosa got on the recruiting radar very early thanks to his pedigree, but he was an absolute monster at St. Thomas Aquinas High School in his junior year and was near the top of everyone’s rankings in the Class of 2016. ESPN rated him the third-best prospect in the nation, and 24/7 had him eighth overall. Rivals had him at 21st. All three gave him five stars and agreed that he had star potential.

Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan:
In the recruiting world, you disagree on prospects about as much as you breathe. For every person who thinks the guy they are watching is the next big thing, someone will swear up and down that they will bust out in college. So it’s shocking to see the universal agreement on Gary. He was rated No. 1 by ESPN, 24/7 and Rivals. 24/7 even gave him the rare 1.0000 rating. If anything, the fact that there will be at least three defensive linemen going before Gary in the 2019 NFL Draft means that he fell short of expectations, but considering how many sure-fire recruits flame out, at least Gary will be a top pick in the draft. The recruiting pundits definitely got this one right.



Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State:
Although Haskins was a top-100 prospect in the Class of 2016, he wasn’t projected to be the best player at the position. He was ranked behind Jacob Eason, who transferred from Georgia to Washington last year; Malik Henry,of Last Chance U fame; Brandon Peters, who is stuck behind Shea Patterson at Michigan; and K.J. Costello from Stanford. That’s not to say that some of these rankings can’t eventually turn out right. Costello might very well play his way into being a top quarterback in an upcoming draft. But it’s safe to say Haskins was probably a little undervalued compared to his peers.

Drew Lock, QB, Missouri:
All three sites agreed that Lock was a four-star prospect and around a top 5-6 pro-style quarterback in the Class of 2015. Outside of Josh Rosen, who was rated at or around No. 1 at the position, the other quarterbacks ahead of Lock likely won’t sniff the NFL. Ricky Town, Blake Barnett and Brady White were all rated ahead and are all on their second programs – or fourth program in Barnett’s case. As a recruit the sites got Lock right, he was around a top-100 prospect nationally, they just overrated some quarterbacks ahead of him.

Byron Murphy, CB, Washington:
Rivals was much higher on Murphy than ESPN or 24/7. Murphy was 40th overall and just outside of being a five-star prospect on Rivals. 24/7 had Murphy at 146th overall, and ESPN had him at 187th overall. Even though Murphy was rated highest by Rivals and the fourth-highest rated cornerback in the Class of 2016, they still put three guys ahead of him who are still in school and likely won’t project at first-round picks next year. Some of the guys like Chauncey Gardner-Johnson of Florida, Saivion Smith of Alabama – formerly LSU -, and Trayvon Mullen of Clemson will get drafted this year, but none higher than Murphy.



Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma:
ESPN had Murray rated 13th overall and the top quarterback in the Class of 2015. Rivals and 24/7 were also pretty high on Murray, with both groups ranking Murray in their top 50. It’s hard to say what their thoughts were on Murray’s NFL potential, because in 2015, the idea of a 5-10 quarterback being the first pick overall just wasn’t a thing, regardless of what Russell Wilson was at the time. Still, all three sites knew he was a player.

Ed Oliver, DT, Houston:
Oiiver was a consensus five-star prospect and top-20 national prospect in the Class of 2016. ESPN had Oliver rated as the fourth-best player in the nation, while 24/7 had him as the seventh-best player in the nation. Rivals had Oliver at No. 19 overall, and at the time, they took some heat for that ranking because it was believed that he was being punished for sticking with his Houston commitment over a bigger program. Personally, I don’t believe that was the case. Bottom line is everyone believed that Oliver had a great chance to be in the position he’s in right now.



Jeffery Simmons, DL, Mississippi State:
Rivals and 24/7 were really high on Simmons; both had him as five-star prospects and inside of the top 20 nationally in the Class of 2016. They also had him as the No. 1 prospect at the strong-side defensive end position. ESPN wasn’t as high on Simmons, but still had him in their top 100 – 84th overall -, but 12th overall at defensive end. To ESPN’s credit, they had Nick Bosa as the No. 1 defensive end, but Simmons is probably better than the next 10 guys ahead of them, none of whom are likely to go in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft.

Devin White, ILB, LSU:
Although all three ranking sites had White as a four-star prospect, they all were unsure of what position he was going to play in college. 24/7 had him as a running back; Rivals had him as a fullback; and ESPN just slotted him as an athlete and were the only site to give him a scouting report on offense and defense. They all agreed that White as a unique, special athlete in the Class of 2016. It’s probably a little surprising that he kept his weight down to play linebacker, because he was listed at 255-260 in high school.

Quinnen Williams, DL, Alabama:
All three sites had Williams as a mid-range four-star prospect. Rivals was the highest on Williams, placing him just outside of their top 100 – 106th overall. All three sites had him within the top 250 prospects in the Class of 2016. That definitely puts him in range to be projected as a high-round pick, although probably not top five.



Ones They Got Wrong