NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2024 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2024): 7-7-1 (-$975)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2024): 6-7-1 (-$1,275)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 6-6-1 (-$1,370)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2024): 11-4-1 (+$2,395)
2024 NFL Picks: 106-92-9 (-$1,520)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 14 Analysis: I have to apologize for Week 14. We gave back all of our winnings from Week 13 with asinine picks. I didn’t like the slate very much, so I got cocky with some of these selections. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Saints, 4 units (loss): I’ll stand by this pick. The Saints were up 14-3 in the fourth quarter, but the Giants got this insane backdoor cover where Drew Lock overcame a third-and-18 after a sack to convert a fourth-and-10. The Giants then had a two-point conversion bounce into the arms of one of their players after a deflection. And then later, the Saints appeared to score the front-door cover on a pick-six, but the officials (correctly) ruled that the defender who caught the interception gave himself up. I don’t know why he gave himself up when the game wasn’t over. Demario Davis isn’t very smart, apparently.

Dolphins, 5 units (loss): Congratulations if you had the -5.5. Same if you had the -6, to a lesser extent. We had the -6.5, and this game landed on six. I didn’t lock in -5.5 because I thought the spread would keep dropping as a result of the sharps being on the Jets. I waited, and then was trapped with a -6.5. Great.

Bears, 5 units (loss): This was an incredibly stupid pick. The 49ers were embarrassed on national TV, and we were getting great value with them. Yes, they had injuries, but still, it was an amazing spot for San Francisco. The fact that I not only missed this, but went the other way means that I really need to reevaluate what I’m doing.

Chiefs, 3 units (loss): This was another horrible pick. I just assumed the Chiefs would try harder. Why? And why did I move three units off the Buccaneers to this stupid Chiefs team? Again, I need to reevaluate.

Cowboys, 3 units (loss): I dropped this from five to three units on Monday because I didn’t feel quite right about it. That looked like a mistake until we suffered another bad beat. The Cowboys blocked a Cincinnati punt with two minutes remaining, but the ball bounced forward and hit a Dallas player, allowing the Bengals’ drive to continue. The Bengals then scored a touchdown instead of kicking a field goal to cover the spread. Brutal.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: It’s amazing how much better the Rams looked against the Bills compared to what we saw in their game against the Saints the prior week. They had issues blocking versus New Orleans, and their performance against Buffalo was incredible.

There’s reason to believe what the Rams did this past Sunday was a fluke, given that the Bills were in an obvious letdown spot. Besides, the 49ers will bring the pressure if Nick Bosa is able to return. Granted, it’s more likely that Bosa will be sidelined, but other players like Talanoa Hufanga and Deommodore Lenoir have returned from injury, while Dre Greenlaw could make his 2024 debut after being so close to playing last week.

The Rams will still have positive production from the passing game because Matthew Stafford and the receivers are just too good. Kyren Williams, on the other hand, could be in a difficult spot, as the 49ers showed improved run-stopping ability last week versus the Bears.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The Rams have had issues against the 49ers in recent meetings because they’ve had problems defending the middle of the field. That has continued to be the case this year, as the Rams’ linebacking corps is in need of major improvement.

The 49ers should be able to attack this area with George Kittle and Jauan Jennings. The Rams have been weak against tight ends all year, while Jennings had a monstrous performance against them back in Week 3. It’s worth noting that Kittle will be unlocked if Trent Williams returns to action, given that Kittle needs to block more when Williams is sidelined. Given that Williams needed a scooter to move around the locker room a couple of weeks ago, however, it’s unlikely that he’ll return with this game occurring just four days after the previous one.

Speaking of injuries, it’s unclear if Isaac Guerendo will play. Guerendo has displayed amazing speed at running back, but he got hurt late last week. If he can’t go, it’ll be Patrick Taylor, who has a plus matchup against the Rams’ soft rush defense.

RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

I don’t think there’s a clear better team in this game, but there is a rest advantage in San Francisco’s favor. The 49ers made quick work of the Bears, and they were able to sit their starters in the fourth quarter. The Rams, on the other hand, had to hold on for dear life against the Bills. Combined, the offense and defense of the Rams played about 35-40 more snaps than the 49ers did last week.

That’s massive considering the short rest. This has to be a big advantage for the 49ers, who have dominated this rivalry. Yes, they lost the previous meeting, but they had a huge lead and blew it when they fell asleep at the wheel.

Furthermore, we’re getting nice line value here with San Francisco. The advance line was -3, and now it’s -2.5. That’s just a half-point move, but 17 percent of NFL games land on three, so getting the full three is something that shouldn’t be taken lightly.

I’m going to fade the public and back the 49ers. The unit count will depend on the injuries, but I imagine it’ll be for two to four units.

Our Week 15 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I know of a gambling syndacite that issued a play on the 49ers -2.5, hence the line move to -3. Also, while Trent Williams will be sidelined, Aaron Banks will return, and Nick Bosa has a chance to play. Isaac Guerendo does as well.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Jauan Jennings destroyed the Rams in Week 3. With Deebo Samuel struggling through injuries, Jennings will have more opportunities with the Rams missing cornerback Cobie Durant. The best number is over 70.5 receiving yards -110 at FanDuel.

I’m going to toss the Jennings over in the same-game parlay with George Kittle over 61.5 receiving yards, Deebo Samuel under 53.5 receiving yards, and Cooper Kupp over 62.5 receiving yards. Kittle usually does more blocking when Trent Williams is out, but perhaps the 49ers have realized that this is a mistake, based on last week’s results. Samuel has not been 100 percent since the midway portion of the season, so I don’t see why that would suddenly change. And the 49ers have some issues with slot receivers. This $25 parlay pays $251.29 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Trent Williams is out again, but Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw, and Isaac Guerendo will play for San Francisco. The sharps are on the 49ers at -2.5. Unfortunately, the best -2.5 lines are gone. You can get -2.5 -120 at DraftKings, but -3 +100 at Caesars is a bit better. For what it’s worth, -2.5 -120 is better than -3 -105. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The 49ers are in a much better rest situation.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -3.

Computer Model: 49ers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

The Rams are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 70% (251,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 27 of the last 38 meetings, excluding the 2012 tie and a 2023 game where both teams sat starters.

49ers are 44-32 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 54 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: When Marshon Lattimore anticipated that he would make his first start with the Redskins against his former team, he must have imagined that it would be against Derek Carr. Lattimore won’t face that sort of challenge, as Carr has been knocked out for several weeks at the least. Instead of Carr, it’ll be Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler.

With Carr sidelined, the Saints’ deep passing attack will be non-existent. Carr occasionally hooked up with Marquez Valdes-Scantling on deep shots, but that is now a thing of the past. Rattler could technically do that, but there will be countless turnovers accompanying those long throws. Haener, meanwhile, will dink and dunk too much.

The only thing the Saints have going on offensively is Alvin Kamara. He has a nice matchup on paper with the Redskins having a run-funnel defense. However, given the issues with the passing attack, the Redskins will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage and neutralize Kamara that way.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins will have much more success running the ball. Like Washington, New Orleans also struggles to stop the run, ranking 24th against it. Brian Robinson Jr. looked very healthy prior to the bye, so he’ll take advantage of New Orleans’ poor defensive front.

Of course, the Saints will have to worry about Jayden Daniels running as well. Daniels had a stretch in which he struggled to do much because of a rib injury, but he looked fully healed in the blowout victory prior to the bye. He’ll pick up chunks of yards on the ground as well.

Daniels will be able to take advantage of the accumulated rushing yards by delivering strikes to Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz. When this season began, the Saints had the personnel to slow down McLaurin, but that personnel is now starting for Washington. McLaurin will abuse New Orleans’ diminished secondary.

RECAP: The Saints don’t stand much of a chance in this game with either Rattler or Haener. Both are terrible quarterbacks who could be functional against lesser defenses, but the Redskins are 11th in defensive EPA. Backup quarterbacks have an abysmal track record versus defenses ranked in the top 12.

I’m going to be on the Redskins for a few units. Washington is 3-1 straight up and against the spread versus horrible quarterbacks this year. The one loss was to Cooper Rush at home, but the Redskins were flat in that game. There’s a chance they could look ahead to Philadelphia next week, especially given that they’re coming off a blowout victory prior to the bye, but given that they recently lost to Dallas, I think they’re likely to be more focused for this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Jake Haener will be the quarterback to start for the Saints. I don’t think it matters who starts as far as the Saints’ chances of covering. This line keeps bouncing back and forth between -7 and -7.5. If I see -7 again, I’ll lock in this pick early.

PLAYER PROPS: New Orleans’ secondary was so much better to start the year. Things have changed because of the Marshon Lattimore trade and some injuries. Terry McLaurin is catching everything from Jayden Daniels, so he should have a big game. The best line is over 67.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Redskins are healthier than they were going into the bye with Marshon Lattimore and Andrew Wylie returning to action. Da’Ron Payne was DNP on Friday with a back injury, so that’s one reason to dislike them this week. It might just be the only one. The Redskins continue to be a big play, but we’re still waiting on a viable -7.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Redskins won’t have their center, Tyler Biadasz, because of an illness. I’m still OK with betting the Redskins heavily. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -7.5 -108 at Bookmaker.

TEASER: I’m teasing the Redskins and Bills. I like Washington to win this game, while Buffalo should stay within one score. The legs are Redskins -1.5 and Bills +8, and I bet it on Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

WALT-LINE PARLAY: I’m debuting a wAlt-line parlay, which Quacky coined on the Saturday show. It’s effectively a pleaser, where I’m selling six points on each side, with the idea that we can avoid going through key numbers. I’m parlaying Redskins -13.5 and Vikings -13.5. This is a +768 parlay at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Redskins battle the Eagles next week.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -3.

Computer Model: Redskins -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Washington: 80% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Redskins -7.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 35-31 ATS through 13 weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Dolphins -6

Bills -3.5

Seahawks +3

Buccaneers -6.5

Saints -4.5

The top pick pushed for the most part. The other four picks split, which means the house won because it collected the vig. The public is now 37-33.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Cowboys +2.5

Steelers +5

Buccaneers +3

Raiders +4.5

It’s so odd that all four teams are underdogs.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The first thing I looked at when breaking down the matchup between the Dolphins offense and Houston’s defense is how many missed tackles the Texans have on the year. Miami no longer leans on deep passes to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, opting instead to give the ball to the play-makers as soon as possible. Thus, the opposing team’s tackling ability is rather significant.

The Texans rank highly in some defensive categories, but missed tackles isn’t one of them. In fact, they have the third-most missed tackles in the NFL, trailing only the Colts and Rams. Houston has been weak while trying to defend running backs and tight ends. Guess which positions Tua Tagovailoa has utilized heavily since returning from his concussion?

De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith figure to have big performances aerially. Hill, meanwhile, isn’t having his best year, but his production has increased in the past couple of weeks, so perhaps he’ll be more involved as well, though that will be tougher because Houston’s great pass rush will make it difficult for Tagovailoa to hang around in the pocket for too long.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Speaking of quarterback pressure, Miami’s pass rush was a huge disappointment last week. The Dolphins barely were in the same area code as Aaron Rodgers on most occasions. They did ultimately sack Rodgers three times, but Rodgers had a clean pocket for most of the game, allowing him to convert constant deep throws to his primary receivers.

This wasn’t a surprise because the Dolphins have the sixth-worst pressure rate in the NFL. However, there’s a chance this could change starting this week, as Bradley Chubb will likely be returning from injury. It’s unclear how effective Chubb will be in his first game back, but his presence can’t hurt. He will help the front get pressure on C.J. Stroud, who has not been protected well this year.

Stroud will have to do more than usual because he won’t be able to lean on Joe Mixon as much. The Dolphins have been better against the run lately, so they’ll be able to keep Mixon somewhat limited. Stroud could be forced into unfavorable passing downs as a result, which is why Chubb’s return would be so important for Miami.

RECAP: We know who the Dolphins are. They beat the bad teams and lose to the good teams. But who are the Texans? Are they a good team or a bad team? Their record says they are good, but they lost to the Titans and nearly went down to the Jaguars in their previous two games. That says they are a bad team.

The Dolphins should be able to hang with the Texans. It’s nice that we’re getting a +3 line when the advance spread was +2.5. I imagine this was because the Dolphins nearly lost to the Jets, but Rodgers inexplicably had his best game of the season. Miami should rebound in a game that means much more to them, as this contest is largely irrelevant for the Texans, who are locked into the No. 4 seed in the playoffs.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new here. There was nothing significant on the injury report. I don’t anticipate betting this game.

PLAYER PROPS: The Texans have struggled against tight ends, and Jonnu Smith has been one of the hottest tight ends in the NFL. He caught three passes in overtime alone last week. With Jaylen Waddle banged up, Smith seems likely to go over the receiving yards total. The best number is over 44.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Terron Armstead is out, which is huge, especially when considering that Kendall Lamm could be sidelined as well. Miami having cluster injuries at tackle versus Houston’s talented pass rush doesn’t sound very appealing. I’m going to switch my pick to the Texans as a result.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Terron Armstead and Kendall Lamm are out, which makes Miami a tough bet. You’d think the sharps would be on the Texans, but they’re not. The sharps bet Miami at +3, but haven’t touched this game at 2.5. The best line is -2.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Dolphins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -2.5.

Computer Model: Texans -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Lots of money on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 65% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Dolphins are 30-21 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Opening Line: Texans -2.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

It’s true. Counting the vig, Kurt Bozwell wouldn’t be up enough to brag about it. Something tells me this guy is lying…

Here’s a hate post I sent to someone:

These people – particularly cat ladies – are the worst and should not be voting. Matthew blocked me, by the way, but only after replying, “‘Uppity?’ OK gramps lol!”

This guy embodies everything wrong with society. And what kind of childish loser blocks people? That’s something a 13-year-old girl would do.

Anyway, here’s something you can always do:

When challenged, just blame luck. Yes, it was dumb luck that I transferred three units from the Buccaneers to the Chiefs.

And finally, this concerns my NFL Power Rankings:

I’m disappointed in this guy. WalterFootball readers are the smartest football fans out there, and yet we get this bozo who hasn’t been paying attention since mid-October.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Where did that performance come from? Aaron Rodgers had struggled all year, ranking among the worst quarterbacks in the NFL since the midpoint of the season. The only quarterbacks who were behind him in the metrics were terrible backups like Mac Jones and Cooper Rush, and injured players like Jayden Daniels. Rodgers resembled a lifeless corpse who was surely headed for retirement.

Rodgers, however, bounced back brilliantly against the Dolphins. It helped that he didn’t see any sort of pass rush from the team with the sixth-worst pressure rate, but it’s not like he’s doing to face much of a challenge against the Jaguars, who have the league’s second-worst pressure rate. Jacksonville also has documented problems in their secondary, so Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson will be able to win their matchups easily.

Rodgers may not even have to do all that much because he’ll be able to lean on his rushing attack. The Jaguars have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so whether it’s Breece Hall or Braelon Allen, the Jets will be able to move the chains on the ground with ease.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: While the Jaguars can’t get to the quarterback at all, the Jets have some players who can. They are about in the middle of the pack in pressure rate, which bodes well for them in this matchup because Jacksonville has some liabilities on the offensive line.

If Trevor Lawrence were quarterbacking the Jaguars, I’d have faith that he’d be able to overcome those pressure issues, but I’m certainly not as bullish on that situation with Mac Jones at the helm. Jones has one of the worst dichotomies when it comes to pressure rate. Obviously, all quarterbacks do worse when pressured, but Jones is in a different stratosphere. When kept clean, he completes 71.8 percent of his passes, maintaining a 6.5 YPA and a 7:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. When pressured, he completes 46.2 percent of his passes with a 5.1 YPA and a 3:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Had this matchup occurred more than a month earlier, I’d say that Jones could lean on Tank Bigsby to help him get into short-yardage situations. However, the Jets have improved their run defense, so I wouldn’t expect much from the Jacksonville ground game.

RECAP: The Jets surprised me last week. They put forth a spirited performance against the Dolphins, as Rodgers had his best game of the year. Had they won, I’d be willing to fade them, but they seem like they’re hungry for a win. I think they’ll play hard at Jacksonville.

The Jaguars, on the other hand, figure to be deflated. They’re coming off a victory, which puts them into automatic fade territory because bad teams struggle to sustain success. Furthermore, the Jaguars have a terrible quarterback going up against great defensive players. Note that I didn’t say a “great defense” because the Jets have struggled as a unit, but they have some great players and a defensive-minded interim head coach who figure to make life difficult for Jones, especially if the pass rushers get home.

I can’t believe I’m doing this, but I’m making a big play on the Jets. I’ll probably regret it, but they seem like the obvious side. If they play as hard as they did last week, they’ll win this game going away. If they display a lackluster effort, they could still get there, given that the Jaguars won’t be at their best following a win. My only gripe here is that we’re not getting the -3 anymore. This would be a five-unit play at -3, but the sharps erased that line for us.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Breece Hall and Alijah Vera-Tucker missed Wednesday’s practice. Haason Reddick did as well, but only for an illness. I’m hoping that we get a viable -3 at some point.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m going to have two plays in this game. I’m betting the Travis Etienne rushing yards and the Etienne over receiving yards. Etienne had just four carries last week, so how’s he going to get to 29 rushing yards? Etienne will have work in the passing game though, especially with Evan Engram sidelined. The best numbers are under 28.5 rushing yards -110 at BetMGM, and over 12.5 receiving yards -120 at DraftKings.

SATURDAY NOTES: D.J. Reed is out, but Sauce Gardner is set to return. Breece Hall could as well after practicing fully on Friday. One thing to worry about is that the Jets could be down both Alijah Vera-Tucker and Morgan Moses on top of Tyron Smith. My wager will be determined by who’s active on Sunday. The Jaguars, by the way, just lost Evan Engram. Outside of Brian Thomas Jr., they have no one left. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

LOCKED IN: I’m locking in Jets -3 -112 at DraftKings just in case this spread goes to -3.5 before kickoff. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tyler Conklin is a surprise inactive, but that doesn’t matter to me. The sharps haven’t been on the Jets for the first time in forever, but they’re not on Jacksonville either. We locked in -3 -112 earlier, which was the correct move because the best line now is -3 -118 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Jaguars are a bad team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -3.

Computer Model: Jaguars -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Late money on the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 73% (77,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Aaron Rodgers is 131-97 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 40-28 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Jaguars are 65-110 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Jets -3.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 73 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase were amazing on Monday night, though that was hardly a surprise. The Bengals have been ranked highly offensively the entire season, and Dallas didn’t prove to be too difficult of a matchup, especially when the Cowboys lost one of their top front-seven players to injury.

The Titans have lost plenty of defenders to injuries and trade-related departures this season. However, they were able to get a key cog in their secondary back last week, as Chidobe Awuzie saw his first action since Week 3. Awuzie’s return is huge because that means the Titans will no longer have cluster injuries at cornerback, which is crucial against Cincinnati’s dynamic receivers.

Tennessee’s ability to stop the run will depend on if some of those injured players return to action. Chase Brown has been electric, both as a runner and a receiver, since taking over for Zack Moss in Week 9. Brown projects well against the Titans.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Given how great Cincinnati’s scoring attack has been, it’s astonishing that the team is just 5-8. But that’s how horrible the defense has been. Cincinnati’s defense currently ranks dead last in adjusted EPA.

I’m no fan of Will Levis, but he has shown that he can shred bad defenses. Calvin Ridley is a dynamic receiver who will give Cincinnati’s horrible secondary fits, while Nick Westbrook-Ikhine could continue his unsustainable touchdown run.

The Titans can primarily move the chains on the ground. Tony Pollard is a terrific back who can go the distance whenever he touches the ball, and he’ll be going up against a Bengals rush defense that just allowed Rico Dowdle to look like the second coming of Emmitt Smith. Cincinnati’s ground defense was indeed debacled.

RECAP: I love fading bad teams coming off a win, as they often struggle to sustain success. The Bengals may not be recognized as a bad team, but if you remove Burrow, Chase, Brown, and Tee Higgins, this roster is absolutely dreadful. Even when factoring in the great offense, the Bengals are just 22nd in net adjusted EPA. Do you trust the league’s 22nd-best team as a five-point road favorite following a win? I sure don’t.

Backing the Titans for a huge play may not be enticing, but consider that Tennessee probably should have a better record because the team has endured a brutal schedule. Since the Week 5 bye, the Titans have battled nine teams. Of those nine teams, six have an 8-5 record or better, and three of them are 10-3 or better. They’ve gone against the Lions, Bills, and Vikings. If you remove those games alone because there’s no way Cincinnati is in that pantheon, the Titans have lost just twice by more than four points, doing so against the Chargers and Redskins. They beat the Texans and hung tight with the Colts, and those results were without Awuzie being available.

I know the Titans just lost to the Jaguars, but I think they’ll be playing much harder in the role of an underdog, whereas Cincinnati could be a bit aloof following a win on a short work week.

I think this is the game we thought we were getting in Cincinnati-Dallas last week. I faded the Bengals as a bloated road favorite, but later realized that this wasn’t the best idea because Burrow was coming off multiple losses. Now, the Bengals are in a much worse spot, while Tennessee will be playing hard for its head coach, who will want to beat his former team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tony Pollard and T’Vondre Sweat missed Wednesday’s practice, but they have plenty of time to return to the practice field. I should note that Evan tried to talk me out of this pick on the WalterFootball.com After Dark Show, citing that I was backing a crappy underdog, which has been a constant loser this year.

PLAYER PROPS: I love Tony Pollard in this matchup, but his status is in doubt. If he’s out, Tyjae Spears could be a nice bet to go over his rushing prop. Rico Dowdle rushed for 130 yards on the Bengals on Monday night.

SATURDAY NOTES: We still don’t know if Tony Pollard will play, but he at least logged a limited practice on Friday. The Titans will be healthier defensively with Roger McCreary and Kenneth Murray returning, while the Bengals won’t have Orlando Brown again. I still like the Titans, but not as much as I did earlier in the week because I’m concerned about Will Levis’ shoulder injury. Levis hurt his shoulder just prior to halftime last week, which was a primary catalyst for Tennessee scoring no points in the second half. Levis practiced fully all week, but that doesn’t mean that he’s 100 percent.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve decided not to bet this game. I’m too concerned with Will Levis’ shoulder, plus it could be windy. The Titans will have Tony Pollard, but there’s no telling if he’ll be 100 percent. Some sharp money has come in on Cincinnati. The best line is +6 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Bengals are a bad team coming off a win. The Titans have players and coaches who were recently on the Bengals.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -4.

Computer Model: Bengals -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Slight lean on the Bengals early, but there’s a lot of action now.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 87% (100,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Joe Burrow is 42-22 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (4-6 ATS otherwise).

Zac Taylor is 10-4 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Bengals -4.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Likely rain, 55 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I don’t know how much there is to analyze here. The Ravens have an explosive offense that is predicated on the run. The Giants have a lousy defense that can’t stop the run. The defense is 18th in EPA, but that ranking will plummet due to recent injuries to Dexter Lawrence and other players.

Derrick Henry has a terrific matchup in this game. The Giants couldn’t even stop the run with Lawrence on the field. They have cluster injuries at defensive tackle, so Henry will trample New York’s helpless defense.

Lamar Jackson will do as he pleases as well. The Giants also have injuries in the linebacking corps, so it’ll be tough for them to chase Jackson. Keep in mind that as an NFC team, the Giants aren’t familiar with Jackson, so that will only benefit the dynamic quarterback, as it has in other NFC matchups.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Ravens have a major defensive weakness that has been well documented on this Web site and in other publications. They have been woeful against the pass all year. The pass rush has been mediocre at best, while the cornerbacks have struggled mightily.

The Giants, however, won’t be able to take advantage of this. Not only do they have horrible backup quarterbacks; they also have cluster injuries on the offensive line with Andrew Thomas and Jermaine Eluemunor both being sidelined.

Whether it’s Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito, New York’s quarterback will be stuck in third-and-long situations. The Giants won’t be able to establish Tyrone Tracy because Baltimore is stout against the run.

RECAP: I don’t think they can make this spread high enough. Since the Daniel Jones benching, the Giants have gotten blown out by the Buccaneers and Cowboys, and they were down 14-3 against the Saints before the biggest garbage-time touchdown you’ll ever see.

None of the Buccaneers, Cowboys, or Saints are nearly as good as the Ravens. Of course, we know that, as Baltimore demolished both Tampa Bay and Dallas, and that was with Chris Godwin and Dak Prescott playing for those respective teams. The Ravens have the great run defense to shut down Tracy, and Lock isn’t good enough to take advantage of the issues in their secondary.

The only concern is that the Ravens have the Steelers next, so there’s a chance they’ll look past New York. I don’t think this will be the case, however, because the Ravens are coming off a loss. They’ve had two weeks to stew about the defeat against Philadelphia. I love backing good quarterbacks off a loss, and Jackson has a great track record in that regard.

Also, we get to fade Lock against a good defense. The Ravens obviously have their issues against the pass, but they’re still 12th in adjusted EPA defense. This gives them a great advantage over a terrible quarterback.

If you’re worried about laying this many points on the road, let me allay your concerns. Dating back to 1989, which is as far as my database goes, road favorites of 14.5 or more are 13-8 against the spread. Those teams are 2-0 after byes, by the way.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is up to -16.5! Wow! Road favorites of -16.5 or more are 4-4 against the spread all time. Given the line movement, I’m going to downgrade this pick to four units.

PLAYER PROPS: If you think this game will be a blowout then you have to love Justice Hill’s rushing + receiving yards prop. In Baltimore’s two blowout wins this year, Hill has accumulated 58 and 54 total yards. The best number is over 31.5 rushing + receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Giants lost yet another lineman in Jon Runyan, so they’re down three starting offensive linemen (both tackles), multiple defensive tackles, and their top two cornerbacks. Oh, and they’re starting Tommy DeVito again. They can’t make this line high enough. Having said that, I worry about the Ravens potentially sitting some starters too early with the Steelers coming up next, so I’m going to drop this unit count to two.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Giants will be down three cornerbacks in addition to their other injuries. The sharps were on the Ravens at -14.5, but not at this number. I said this on the show, but given that Baltimore could rest its starters early with Pittsburgh coming up, I’m going to bet the first-half line. The best first-half line is -8.5 -121 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

The Ravens have the Steelers coming up, but they’re also coming off a loss prior to the bye.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -12.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -14.

Computer Model: Ravens -8.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 53% (91,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Lamar Jackson is 9-3 ATS as a favorite of 10+.

Opening Line: Ravens -14.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 37 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I was fairly optimistic about Kansas City’s chances of improving the offense last week because of D.J. Humphries’ debut. The Chiefs have endured major issues at left tackle, and Humphries was expected to provide a nice boost. Humphries, however, bombed in his first game. Not only did he block poorly; he was knocked out late with an injury, so it’s unclear what his status will be this week.

The Chiefs will need some improved play at left tackle in this matchup because of Myles Garrett and the opposing defensive front. The Browns generate tons of heat on opposing quarterbacks, ranking third in pressure rate. Patrick Mahomes will constantly be under duress, and he won’t have the best options to lean on at receiver.

It would be helpful if the Chiefs were able to establish the run, but they forgot to do so last week against a soft Chargers ground defense. This isn’t a great matchup for Isiah Pacheco, but it’s not a bad one either, given that the Browns are ranked 14th versus the rush.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Whatever Pacheco ends up doing on the ground, it’ll be better than what the Browns will be able to generate. Nick Chubb looks like a shell of his former self coming off his brutal knee injury. He shouldn’t even be playing right now, given that he’s at risk for further injury, just as Jonathon Brooks was.

Jameis Winston will have to do it all himself, which did not pan out very well last week. However, that was against a far superior Pittsburgh defense. The Chiefs have been woeful at stopping the pass. Bryce Young and Aidan O’Connell have looked like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady against them.

Winston should be able to deliver constant strikes to Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, and perhaps Cedric Tillman if he can return from his concussion. There’s always a risk of a pick-six with Winston, but even if that occurs, he’ll be able to bounce back like he did versus the Broncos.

RECAP: I’m not going to be duped into backing the Chiefs again. Not until the playoffs, anyway. I thought they’d put forth more of an effort against the Chargers, but they continued to do just enough to win.

That’s all the Chiefs have done this year. Here are their margins of victory since Week 8 and the corresponding opponents: 7 (Raiders), 6 (Buccaneers with no Mike Evans), 1 (Broncos), -9 (Bills), 3 (Panthers), 2 (Raiders), and 2 (Chargers). All they do is win by one score, and I don’t know why they’d put forth any sort of maximum effort this week, especially now that they’re two games ahead of the Bills for the No. 1 spot.

Conversely, the Browns should play hard. They’re coming off a blowout loss, but they’ve been fighting hard for their coach and quarterback. Of course, the worry is that Winston will throw a pick-six to ruin a potential cover, but if that doesn’t happen, it would be surprising if the Browns don’t stay within margin.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Browns had a couple of key players miss Wednesday’s practice, as Joel Bitonio and David Njoku were both DNP. I don’t think either absence would alter my pick.

PLAYER PROPS: I had grand plans of betting David Njoku’s over receiving yards because the Chiefs have one of the worst defenses against tight ends in the NFL. Unfortunately, Njoku is unlikely to play.

SATURDAY NOTES: David Njoku is likely out. Cedric Tillman is out as well. The only bad news for the Chiefs is that D.J. Humphries will be sidelined, but they’re used to bad left tackle play. I must say that on Thursday’s show, Andy Iskoe offered a compelling argument for the Chiefs, which will keep me off the Browns:

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Browns won’t have David Njoku. The sharps were on the Browns at +6 through +4, but then there was some takeback on the Chiefs at -4. The best line is +4.5 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

It’d be shocking if the Chiefs played harder than the Browns.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -6.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 59% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 95-25 SU, 63-55 ATS (49-42 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -5.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Rain, 41 degrees. Mild/heavy wind, 15 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: I thought the Cowboys projected well offensively against the Bengals because of how poor Cincinnati’s defense is. Dallas moved the chains well to start the game, but that changed when they suffered an injury to their center, Cooper Beebe. Already down Zack Martin, the Cowboys suddenly had cluster injuries in the interior of their offensive line.

The Cowboys will carry those injuries into this game, unless Beebe can return on a short week. This will be problematic against the Panthers, whose pass rush has improved exponentially since D.J. Wonnum returned from injury. This isn’t as easy of a matchup as it seems for Cooper Rush. The Eagles scored just 22 points on Carolina, after all.

There’s one caveat here that could help Rush, and that would be Carolina’s poor run defense. While the Panthers have gotten better against the pass in recent weeks, they still surrender a lot on the ground, so Rico Dowdle projects well. He can help Rush get into third-and-short situations.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers aren’t the only team in this matchup that struggles to stop the run. The Cowboys are also horrible against it. In fact, both teams are in the bottom three in ground defense along with the Bengals.

I trust Chuba Hubbard and the Carolina offensive line more than I do Dowdle and Dallas’ banged-up front. Thus, I’m more bullish on the Panthers’ ability to move the chains via their ground attack and set up easy passing opportunities for the quarterback.

Speaking of the quarterback, Bryce Young has played on a high level since being re-inserted into the lineup. Granted, he has gone up against some bad defenses, but he composed himself well against Philadelphia’s No. 1 stop unit. Since reclaiming the job, Young is 20th in EPA, ranking just ahead of Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield. He’s played well enough to beat good teams, so he can certainly defeat the bad ones.

RECAP: The Cowboys have to be deflated coming off their loss to the Bengals. They believed that they could make a run and catch the Redskins. Now, they’re three back of Washington, so their playoff chances are incredibly slim.

I don’t know how the Cowboys possibly fight hard in this game. Meanwhile, the Panthers have been trying hard lately, which makes sense because they know that they’re building for the immediate future.

I like the Panthers to cover. It’s odd to back them as a favorite, but the sharps are betting them and the public is on the other side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Cooper Beebe didn’t practice Wednesday, so it looks like the Cowboys will have cluster injuries in the interior of the offensive line. Also, I brought this up on the YouTube show, but imagine what this spread would be if Chuba Hubbard didn’t lose a fumble in overtime against the Buccaneers and Xavier Legette caught the game-winning touchdown against the Eagles. This line would definitely be above -3.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing sticks out to me in this game. I wanted the Chuba Hubbard over rushing yards, but it’s priced extremely high at 80.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cowboys won’t have Cooper Beebe, meaning they’ll have cluster injuries in the interior of the offensive line. The Panthers, however, won’t have one of their starting linebackers in Trevin Wallace. Jaycee Horn is questionable after being limited all week. This is still an advantage for the Panthers, who would be favored by well over three if Chuba Hubbard didn’t fumble and Xavier Legette didn’t drop a touchdown.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There hasn’t been any sharp action on this game, and I still don’t plan on betting this contest. The best line is -2.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Cowboys could be deflated after basically being eliminated from the playoffs.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Panthers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -1.5.

Computer Model: Panthers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

The public loves the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 75% (109,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Cowboys -2.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Chance of rain, 46 degrees. Light wind.