NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2024 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2024): 7-7-1 (-$975)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2024): 6-7-1 (-$1,275)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 6-6-1 (-$1,370)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2024): 11-4-1 (+$2,395)
2024 NFL Picks: 106-92-9 (-$1,520)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

Video of the Week: I found this video where the actors from Game of Thrones reveal if they read the book or not. More importantly, George R.R. Martin reveals where he was with Book 6:

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles have won nine in a row, but they haven’t been immune from some locker room disruption. A.J. Brown took to local radio and complained about his lack of usage. He saw just four targets last week, so he was naturally upset. I was distraught as well because I had Brown’s over receiving yards prop.

While some may see this as a negative, these sorts of matters are often overblown by the media, which is trying to generate clicks and views. It’s likely that Brown and Jalen Hurts have already kissed and made up. Not the sort of kissing and making up that Matt Millen is into with his 100-percent USDA Men, but you get the picture. The squeaky wheel tends to get the grease, and Brown is lining up for a big performance against the Steelers, who have allowed more big plays to outside receivers than most think.

Brown will need to carry the Eagles this week because the Steelers are stout against the run. They recently clamped down on Derrick Henry, so they should be able to play Saquon Barkley well.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Of course, the Steelers know a thing or two about the deep pass. Russell Wilson has completed a large number of “moon balls” since taking over for Justin Fields at quarterback.

Those “moon balls” may not be present in this game, however. The Eagles have two excellent rookie cornerbacks who have improved the team’s aerial defense. Furthermore, George Pickens is likely to be sidelined again, so it’s not like the Philadelphia corners will be challenged.

Like the Eagles, the Steelers aren’t expected to get much on the ground. Philadelphia ranks at the very top of the charts in run defense, so neither Najee Harris nor Jaylen Warren will generate much.

RECAP: The Eagles are the best team in the NFL, and I think they deserve to be favored by this sort of spread. However, I don’t know how likely it is that they’ll cover this line, especially when considering the tendencies of the opponent.

Mike Tomlin is the master of covering as an underdog. He’s an amazing 63-34 against the spread in his career as an underdog. You need a great reason to go against Tomlin as a dog, and perhaps backing the Eagles is it. Philadelphia destroyed Baltimore a couple of weeks ago, and it could treat Pittsburgh similarly. When the Steelers haven’t covered as dogs, it’s been against elite teams like the Chiefs from a few years ago, or the Bills last season in the playoffs.

With that in mind, I’m going to side with the Eagles, but only for office pool purposes. I don’t have a strong angle concerning this game, aside from fading a publicly backed dog.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: George Pickens missed Wednesday’s practice, and it sounds like he’s a long shot to play in this game. Meanwhile, it seems as though Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown have already kissed and made up. I will almost certainly be betting Brown’s over receiving yardage prop.

PLAYER PROPS: The squeaky wheel gets the grease. I’d be shocked if A.J. Brown didn’t have a big game this week. If you’re worried about the matchup, the Steelers have given up some big games to No. 1 wideouts. Ja’Marr Chase (86 yards), Terry McLaurin (113 yards), and Malik Nabers (71 yards) are some recent examples. Brown has gone over 80.5 in six of his 10 games this year. The best number is over 80.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: George Pickens is out, as expected. The Steelers also won’t have a couple of key defenders in DeShon Elliott and Larry Ogunjobi. This isn’t enough for me to wager on Philadelphia.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -4.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -8.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

The Steelers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 85% (42,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Steelers are 31-17 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 48 instances.

Mike Tomlin is 63-34 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Eagles -5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 42 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: If the Rams could score 44 points on the Rams, what are the Lions going to do? That’s what most casual football fans are asking themselves. What they may not realize is that Buffalo was caught very flat last week. The team celebrated the snow game victory a bit too hard and wasn’t focused during the trip to Los Angeles. The Bills should be better off a loss, especially if Matt Milano improves his play following two disastrous starts from his extended time off.

To beat the Lions, you have to be able to stop the run because the entire offense is predicated on being able to move the chains via Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The Bills are average when it comes to stopping the rush, according to the metrics, so it’s important that Milano performs better. He should improve each week because he’ll be further removed from his injury.

The Bills surrendered tons of yards through the air last week on Matthew Stafford throws to Puka Nacua. This is an area in which the Bills typically excel, so it was odd to see them struggle so much. This could have been associated with the flat result, so they could go back to playing well versus outside receivers. However, they’ve always struggled versus slot receivers, so Amon-Ra St. Brown could have a big game.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen just became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for three touchdowns and rush for three touchdowns in a single game. Perhaps he’ll be the first quarterback in NFL history to accomplish that feat in consecutive games.

This is a great matchup for Allen. The Lions have historically struggled against scrambling quarterbacks. They were destroyed in Baltimore last year. Granted, they beat Anthony Richardson a few weeks ago, but Richardson sucks. Allen is playing at an MVP level, and he’ll pick up tons of rushing yards against a Detroit defense missing several starters.

Allen will also have success aerially. Detroit has some issues in the secondary, and the team often struggles against slot receivers. Khalil Shakir should be Allen’s favorite target as a result.

RECAP: The Lions have the better record and happen to be at home. However, the Bills look like the right side to me. I love backing elite quarterbacks off losses. They often play at their best to compensate for the recent result. Most great quarterbacks have positive records in such situations. Allen is 12-8 against the spread excluding his rookie year, for example. That’s not an amazing record, but it’s still a winning proposition.

Furthermore, Allen will be playing against a team unfamiliar with him. This has given him a huge advantage in the past because NFC teams aren’t prepared to battle a freak of nature like him. It’s no coincidence that Allen is 16-10 against the spread versus the NFC. He and Lamar Jackson have dominated the opposing conference.

I wish we were getting the full three, but there’s a reason we’re not. Regardless, the Bills are worth a decent-sized bet.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: D.J. Reader missed Wednesday’s practice. A potential Reader absence would be huge for James Cook’s outlook.

PLAYER PROPS: Josh Allen has vowed to scramble more in the second half of the season. He’s had 50 or more rushing yards in three of his previous four games. The Lions tend to struggle against mobile quarterbacks. The best number is over 38.5 rushing yards -110 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m removing my units from the Bills because I’m concerned about their secondary. They won’t have Rasul Douglas, and they could also be out Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin, so this would be classified as cluster injuries in the secondary. Meanwhile, the Lions will be getting D.J. Reader and Taylor Decker back from injury.

The Motivation. Edge: Bills.

The Bills are coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -2.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

The Bills are getting lots of public money.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 77% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Josh Allen is 12-8 ATS off a loss since his second season.

Sean McDermott is 4-8 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Lions -2.5.

Opening Total: 53.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DENVER OFFENSE: The last time we saw the Broncos, they were engaged in a high-scoring game against the Browns on Monday night. Bo Nix hit some explosive throws, but the Browns did a good job of keeping Nix in check for most of the night. That may sound weird because the final score was 41-32, but Denver scored 14 points off pick-sixes.

Nix should do fine against the Colts, but it must be noted that the offense as a whole doesn’t have the best outlook in this matchup. This is because the Broncos don’t really specialize in the two best ways to beat Indianapolis’ defense. The first is via the run. The Colts are poor versus the rush, but the Broncos can’t seem to make up their minds about which running back they prefer. Jaleel McLaughlin has been the top back the past two games, but that can always change. Denver has three mediocre options, and none of them project to take advantage of Indianapolis’ top weakness.

The Colts are also weak to tight ends. The Broncos don’t utilize their tight ends at all. Lucas Krull and Adam Trautman will often combine for one or two receptions per game, but it’s not enough. Meanwhile, Indianapolis tends to cover outside receivers well, so Courtland Sutton may not do as well as usual.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It seems as though the Colts will also have issues scoring against the Broncos. Jameis Winston just threw for nearly 500 yards against Denver, but it would be shocking if Anthony Richardson repeated anything close to that performance.

Richardson’s passing ability is miserable, and he won’t be as lucky as Winston was to avoid Riley Moss. The No. 2 cornerback was sidelined, creating a huge liability in the secondary that Jerry Jeudy was able to exploit. Moss should be back, so the Indianapolis receivers likely won’t be able to get open as easily. It also remains to be seen if the Colts’ top wideout, Josh Downs, will be able to return from injury.

The Colts will obviously attempt to establish Jonathan Taylor on the ground. This won’t be so easy, as Denver is ranked fifth in rush defense EPA. Taylor will have more success than Nick Chubb, who couldn’t even reach 30 rushing yards last Monday.

RECAP: I’m not a huge fan of the Broncos. They’re 8-5, but they’ve generated many of their wins in odd circumstances. For example, they beat the Buccaneers when Tampa Bay was unfocused off a revenge win over the Lions. The Broncos then defeated the Jets, who were caught looking ahead to a London game versus the Vikings. They’ve defeated plenty of bad teams, and while they nearly took down the Chiefs, almost every bad team has nearly taken down the Chiefs this year.

The Colts are not a bad team. I wouldn’t classify them as good either, but they can be competitive with their solid defense and running game. While I don’t expect Taylor to do all that much in this game, Richardson could generate some solid rushing yards and keep Denver’s offense off the field. I like the Colts to cover the +4, though I can’t say I’m crazy about taking them either because Richardson could always implode against a great defense.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I assumed we would be getting Riley Moss back from injury, but he was DNP on Wednesday. Moss’ absence would be pretty impactful, as it was in the matchup against the Browns.

PLAYER PROPS: Not seeing anything here. The weaknesses don’t align well with the opposing strengths. For example, the Colts are weak against the run, but which running back will Denver use?

SATURDAY NOTES: There are projected to be very heavy winds in this game, meaning the under is more appealing. The heavy winds will also benefit the team that can run better, which would be the Colts with their quarterback. Anthony Richardson will have his center and top receiver (Josh Downs) back from injury. I may bet the under if there continues to be projected heavy winds.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

The Broncos play against the Chargers on Thursday night next week.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -4.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -9.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Slight lean on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 63% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Broncs -5.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 54 degrees. HEAVY WIND, 21 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers seemed well on their way to an easy blowout last week. They were up 14-0 on the Raiders before the first quarter even concluded. And yet, it wasn’t very long until the Raiders were able to threaten Tampa Bay.

The reason for this was that Baker Mayfield was careless with the ball. Mayfield could see lots of pressure in this game from the Chargers’ two elite edge rushers, which could cause some more turnovers. The Chargers hounded Patrick Mahomes in the second half last week, so they’ll have similar success applying pressure.

The Buccaneers will attempt to run the ball with Bucky Irving and/or Rachaad White to limit these mistakes. The Chargers have been woeful against the run lately, but that had to do with Denzel Perryman’s injury. Perryman seemed close to returning to action last week, so he should be available to slow Tampa Bay’s running attack.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Speaking of the running game, that’s something that has largely disappeared for them in recent weeks, thanks to J.K. Dobbins’ injury. The Chargers had a bit of success on the ground last week, but they shouldn’t expect to gain anything with Vita Vea playing on the other side of the line of scrimmage.

Despite not being able to run effectively, the Chargers should still be able to move the ball aerially. Justin Herbert had a poor opening half on Sunday night, but was nearly perfect following intermission. He’ll have a great matchup against the Buccaneers, who are only good against poor or young quarterbacks. Todd Bowles thrives in these matchups, but his defenses tend to collapse when dealing with top talent at quarterback.

A big factor in the Chargers being able to light up the scoreboard is the availability of Ladd McConkey, and to a lesser extent, Will Dissly. The Buccaneers give up lots of production to slot receivers, so McConkey’s return would be huge for this matchup.

RECAP: Two capsules above this one, I discussed that great quarterbacks coming off losses are generally great bets. The same applies to elite coaches. Jim Harbaugh qualifies as such. Excluding 2014 when he had one foot out the door in San Francisco, Harbaugh is 11-3-1 against the spread off a loss. With the Chargers, he’s 3-0-1.

With this resilience boost, the Chargers look great, especially when factoring in that they’ll likely be healthier this week. They were missing McConkey and Perryman against the Chiefs, but they should have one of them back in the lineup.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are a flimsy team. They’ve won three in a row, but their competition has been questionable, to say the least. The three teams they’ve beaten are the Giants, Panthers, and Raiders. Their combined records are 7-32. That’s not very impressive, especially when considering that the Buccaneers nearly lost to the Panthers and had trouble putting away the Raiders.

I like the Chargers in this game. They continue to be underrated, while the case can be made that the Buccaneers are overrated. And this -3 spread is quite manageable. My only worry is that the Chargers have to play on Thursday, but they’re coming off a loss, so there’s a better chance they’ll be focused for this game as opposed to if they were coming off a win against Kansas City.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers had a lot of players miss Wednesday’s practice. Many of them will surely return to practice by Friday, but the injury report itself looks pretty bleak if you take a look at it.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re waiting on some injury updates with Ladd McConkey, Denzel Perryman, and Bucky Irving. I may have something later.

SATURDAY NOTES: There was some question about Mike Evans and Tristan Wirfs playing, but neither finished the week with an injury designation. However, the Buccaneers could be missing every safety on their roster outside of Kaevon Merriweather. This could be a major problem against Justin Herbert, who will be hoping to get Ladd McConkey back from injury. We’ve been waiting on news regarding McConkey and Denzel Perryman. Unfortunately, we have no clarity for now, with both being questionable after being limited in practice all week. Both were limited all last week, but missed Week 14. I will bet on the Chargers if at least one returns.

The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Chargers play on Thursday night against the Broncos, but they’re coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

The public loves the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 79% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Road Team is 140-98 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Jim Harbaugh is 11-3 ATS after a loss, excluding 2014.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: I’ve joked about the Cardinals struggling the past three weeks because Kyler Murray played video games since the bye, but the truth is that Murray’s had some very difficult matchups since he’s had the idle week. He has played the Seahawks twice and the Vikings. Both teams are in the top seven of adjusted defensive EPA.

The Patriots rank 28th in defense. They can’t stop the run at all, which has to be music to Murray’s ears. Murray hasn’t had the luxury of a running game in the matchups against Seattle and Minnesota, but he’ll able to hand the ball off to James Conner and expect big gains.

Murray will benefit from these Conner runs and perhaps avoid interceptions, which have ruined his chances of winning the past three weeks. Murray will continue throwing to Trey McBride, who will be able to abuse a Patriots defense that hasn’t been able to stop tight ends.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots should be able to establish the run as well, provided that they’re not getting blown out in this game. They’ve run well with Rhamondre Stevenson in some matchups, including the near-victory against the Colts prior to the bye. Zach Charbonnet just looked like Walter Payton against New England, so perhaps Stevenson will pick up where Charbonnet left off.

Drake Maye should be able to run on the Cardinals as well. He won’t face too much of a pass rush, with Arizona having the fifth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, so Maye may not even need to escape the pocket.

Maye will have the most success targeting Demario Douglas. The nifty slot receiver has enjoyed some quality performances this year, and this should be another one with Arizona being very weak against the position.

RECAP: The Cardinals have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL over the past three weeks. They came out of their bye with a 6-4 record, but they’ve dropped three consecutive games. However, it should be noted that their three defeats have come to the Seahawks (twice) and Vikings, two teams that are in the top 10 of my NFL Power Rankings. Plus, Arizona was up 19-6 at Minnesota before a late collapse.

I like the Cardinals to rebound. They’re playing a far inferior opponent. Yes, the Patriots nearly beat the Colts prior to the bye, but that was one week after they got absolutely destroyed in Miami. The Cardinals and Dolphins are similar-caliber teams – they played a tight game in Miami back in Week 8 – so this result could be similar than the 34-15 debacle.

It’s worth noting that we’re getting some line value here as well. The advance spread was Arizona -7, but it dropped to -4.5 because of the loss to Seattle. We’re now getting the Nos. 2 and 3 key numbers (7, 6) with the line move, which sounds great to me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some whacky line movement in this game. The Cardinals opened -6.5, but fell to -4.5 because of sharp money on New England. Then, other sharp money came in on the Arizona, pushing this line back to -6. It could be possible that this was from the same people, as they tried hard to manipulate the line to get a very favorable number on Arizona, but that’s just speculation.

PLAYER PROPS: The Patriots have been gashed by running backs all year. James Conner should be the latest running to gash them. He hit 90 rushing yards versus Seattle last week, and this is an easier matchup. The best number is over 75.5 rushing yards -110 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing on the injury report has moved me off my Arizona wager. In fact, after thinking about it, I may have a bigger bet on the Cardinals.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -7.

Computer Model: Cardinals -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money Arizona: 58% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Patriots are 30-17 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Cardinals -7.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: This matchup would have looked much different a couple of months ago. The Seahawks were miserable on this side of the ball back in October, as they couldn’t stop the run or get to the quarterback. However, thanks to Leonard Williams’ improved health, and the trade for D’Ernest Jones, the Seahawks have maintained a dominant stop unit of late.

Williams and Jones have allowed the Seahawks to be stout against the run. Josh Jacobs is an excellent running back capable of overcoming most matchups, but this might be a very tough one for him.

The Seahawks are weaker to slot receivers and tight ends. The Cardinals were able to take advantage of the latter with Trey McBride, but their slot receiver is the ineffective Greg Dortch, who has had a very disappointing season. The Packers have two players who can fully abuse these weaknesses, as Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft have both enjoyed big performances in many games this year.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: If there’s a weakness on the Seahawks, it’s the offensive line, particularly when it comes to pass protection. Left tackle Charles Cross is incredible, but the rest of the blocking unit is very pedestrian, especially in the wake of Connor Williams’ retirement.

Pass blocking will be very crucial against the Packers, who can get after the quarterback effectively. Of all teams that don’t blitz at a rate of 20 percent or more, they are third in pressure rate. They’ll be on Geno Smith, who will really need to get his running game going to avoid heavy pressure.

It’s clear that the Seahawks don’t need Kenneth Walker back to run the ball well. Zach Charbonnet exploded for a huge performance last week versus the Cardinals. However, running on the Packers is a tougher challenge. Green Bay has a top-10 run defense, so Charbonnet won’t trample the Packers with ease like he did Arizona.

RECAP: I mentioned in the Chargers-Buccaneers capsule that I love backing great coaches off a loss. I’d say Matt LaFleur qualifies. The Packers have been consistently excellent under his watch, so it should come as no surprise that Green Bay is 18-11 against the spread following a loss under LaFleur. In fairness, many of those victories came with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. Since Love took over, that number is just 5-6 ATS, but I do like the idea of backing the Packers following a loss, especially when there are extra days of preparation attached to it.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting great line value. The advance spread was Green Bay -3, but with the Packers’ loss to Detroit, coupled with Seattle’s blowout win at Arizona, I expected the line to shift closer toward pick ’em. I figured that at the very least, we’d get a -2.5.

No dice. The line is still -3 despite 60 percent of the tickets coming in on Seattle. I think the sportsbooks know that if they moved off -3, they’d get a crap ton of money on the Packers from the sharps. The sharps are already shading toward Green Bay, so imagine what it would be at -2.5.

I’m going to back the Packers, as I’m not fully buying the Seahawks just yet. I know that Seattle has a great track record as home underdogs (22-9 ATS since 2009), but Green Bay is the better team with the rest and resilience advantages.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kenneth Walker missed Wednesday’s practice, but at this point, who cares? Zach Charbonnet looked better than Walker in the battle against Arizona last week.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m going to be betting a few units on the Packers. They’re the superior team coming off a loss. The Seahawks have won three in a row, but they’ve beaten mediocre teams. This is a massive step up in class, and we’re now getting the -2.5.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.

Computer Model: Seahawks -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 58% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Matt LaFleur is 56-39 ATS in the regular season.

Seahawks are 22-9 ATS as home underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Packers -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Chance of rain, 45 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Williams was so much better since the Bears changed offensive coordinators, so what happened? Why was Williams and the rest of the offense so pitiful against the 49ers? Surely, it wasn’t just San Francisco being extra motivated off the loss in the snow game to Buffalo.

Indeed, I think it’s something more permanent, albeit just for this year. Chicago’s new offensive coordinator is serving as the interim head coach, so all the help that Williams was getting will be spread thin. I don’t know if the Bears will have an appropriate game plan for the Vikings, and if so, it could end disaster for Chicago. Brian Flores is the master of frustrating bad and young quarterbacks, and he could completely discombobulate Williams. The No. 1 overall rookie had a solid performance against Flores in the prior meeting, but Flores may have some new wrinkles that could befuddle Williams and his coaching staff.

This is a tough matchup for the Chicago running game as well. The Vikings have been stout against the rush, so I wouldn’t count on D’Andre Swift doing anything for yet another week.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings had no issues moving the chains against the Bears in their 30-27 victory against them back on Nov. 24. Aaron Jones enjoyed a solid game, rushing for 106 yards and a touchdown. This performance was not a surprise, given that the Bears have been horrible against the run this year.

Jones’ great running opened up opportunities for Sam Darnold, who played nearly flawless football. He went 22-of-34 for 330 yards and two touchdowns. He connected primarily to Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. The Bears have been awful against tight ends, so Hockenson’s great showing was predictable.

The only way the Bears can disrupt this attack is by hounding Darnold. They got to Darnold three times in the prior meeting, as the Vikings’ pass protection has not been the same since Christian Darrisaw’s injury. However, Jones being able to run well will negate these pass-rushing opportunities.

RECAP: It’s astonishing how embarrassing the Bears were last week. I felt especially humiliated backing them. I thought they’d win outright, but they had no chance to stay within single digits.

I don’t see why that would suddenly change. The Bears no longer have a head coach, and they don’t even have an offensive coordinator either because the man occupying that role, Thomas Brown, is now the interim head coach. This is effectively what the Jets did with their defensive coordinator upon firing Robert Saleh. No wonder the Bears weren’t prepared at all last week.

Chicago could underperform like the Jets the rest of the year. They have less talent overall than the Jets, so it’ll be difficult to expect them to compete with the Vikings. I know the two teams went into overtime in a recent meeting, but remember that Minnesota was way ahead before Chicago stormed back. I don’t think the Bears will be able to do that with the coaching change.

I should note that I’m no fan of the Vikings in general. They’ve beaten no winning teams since losing Christian Darrisaw. However, this is something to consider for the future because the Vikings aren’t exactly battling a good team in this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to be betting one of the FanDuel specials in this game, which is Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to each have 100-plus receiving yards and one-plus touchdown each. They did this last week, and it pays out at 80/1.

SATURDAY NOTES: Neither D’Andre Swift nor Roschon Johnson has practiced yet, so we’ll have to see what the Bears do at running back if both are sidelined.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -5.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -14.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Slight lean on the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 65% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Vikings won 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Bears are 22-43 ATS in December road games the previous 64 instances.

Vikings are 47-38 ATS at home since 2014 (15-23* ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -6.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Las Vegas, otherwise known as Slim City. Tonight, the Oakland Raiders take on the Atlanta Hawks. Guys, I feel like the network heads are mocking me right now. I easily could have broadcasted the Eagles and Steelers game, but they sent me to Slim City where Mother asked me to place a bet on the roulette wheel for her. I’m usually very brave, and Mother even gave me the bravery award in home school, but I don’t know how to do the roulette wheel, so I got scared and I didn’t do anything besides play the games at Circus Circus. Do you think someone could bet the roulette wheel for me because I don’t know how?

Emmitt: Thanks, Milon. I not allow to place a bet on the root let wheel. I spend three long year on grambler unonymous, and I meet a lot of nice people in there like Mike Johnson, Tom Johnson, and Carol, uhh, Johnson. But do not tells anybody that they go there because grambler unonymous is suppose to be unonymous which mean you do not knowed who these people is. But I just hope I getted over my grambling indiction because I had a big problem betting on the coin flop in the Super Bowel. They say it a 50-50 proposition so this mean if you bet $50, you getted $50 back every time you make a gramble.

Reilly: Emmitt, how can you be so stupid and bet on something so random? Now will someone please help me bet the roulette wheel for Mother?

Tollefson: Reilly, you’re on your own on this one. I’m banned from all casinos. I was hired to procure female slaves for the casino managers, but I decided to keep the female slaves and money for myself. In fact, I’m going to duck out of here so I’m not murdered and buried in the desert.

Reilly: Tolly, I thought we were friends. Now, you’re telling me that you’re avoiding potential death when you could be doing me a favor instead? The nerve! Speaking of losers, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. I have an exclusive report saying that Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr. engaged in a human centipede and have become one person named Kirk Penix III. I’m joined by a nerdy guy with glasses. Who are you, and how did you come to run a country?

Anthony Fauci: Hello dear, my nwame is Anthony Fauci, and I am the swience. President Biden has pardoned me, but I still fled the country because I feared prosecution from President Orange Felon as I call him, but I made so much money from Covid that I was able to bwuy my own country and now I’m able to open all my own viral research facilities and not be questioned by bad guys named Rand Pwaul who had the nerve to qwuestion the swience. How dare you qwuestion the swience? I am the swience!

Charissa Thompson: Ugh. I hated science class in high school. I cheated off this guy the entire time. Anyway, why do you think you deserve NFL games in your country?

Anthony Fauci: Becwause I am the swience, and if you don’t trust the swience then the swience is going to gets its revwenge. I already funded the creation of Cowvid, but that was nothing. Now, I’m going to unleash a virus that actually kwills people, and this time, I’m nwot going to twell you whether to wear a meesk or a dwouble meesk, so with the swience not twelling you what to do, how are people going to survive the next pwandemic? Oh, and I’m also going to unleash more diseases on dwogs, slaughtering them awll.

Reilly: So, you’re going to unleash a pandemic and kill dogs if you don’t get an NFL game? Good, I don’t care if dogs die because Mother won’t let me have a pet dog! She says I’m too young and irresponsible at the age of 73! I told Mother that this is BS because I would be able to walk the dog as long as I had a pooper scooper and wouldn’t have to pick up the poop with a bag in my hands. Camel Toe Harry, can you convince Mother that I am old enough and responsible to have a pet dog?

Kamala Harris: I grewww uppp innnn midddlee classss fammlly. I’vveee beeennn uunbburrb-hic-burrnedd bbyyy whaasss beeeen hic! Heeeyyyy sseeexxxxyyy Iii seeeee yoouuu hhahahahaahahaahah! I maaayy hhahavvvee lloosst prpreessiddentiiaalal raaccccee buuttt I’mmmm aavvaiaillabbllee tooo moovvvoeeee uupppp ththeee laldddderr agggiinan hic! Llikkee ththeyey ssayay iffff yoouu faalll offff theeee hoorsse hhavveee seexxxx wiiwthth itittt aggiaiann hahahahahaahaha!

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, or should I call her Drunkala, has become an utter disgrace and a disabomination, I know many of you don’t know that word, disabomination, but I made up the word because abomination wasn’t enough for Drunkala, disabomination was the only way to describe her, and I am the only one who was able to think of such a great word, and it is a great word, some would say the greatest word, and no one has ever seen anything like it, disabomination, that’s a heck of a beauty, which is the opposite of Drunkala, who is a beast, a very ugly beast, and not on the outside, but on the inside because there’s nothing there, there’s nothing on the inside, which is why she’s such a disabomination, again, a great word, they should replace me as Webster, the guy who made the dictionary, you know Webster, he’s the total loser who makes that dictionary book, and it’s so long, if I were running the dictionary, it would be much more efficient and shorter, and there would be lots of pictures because books with pictures are the best, and the only books worth reading, and they’re not disabominations, they are great works, but the dictionary is run by that total disgrace Webster, who, frankly, is a total disabomination, and no one has ever seen anything like it.

Wolfley: DONALD, I HATE TO BRAG, BUT I AM THE AUTHOR OF THE DICTONARY ON MY HOME WORLD, BUT DICTIONARIES ON MY HOME WORLD HAVE GREEN DRESSES FOR ARMS AND RUBBER CHICKENS FOR EYES.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! New Daddy, can you please make roulette wheel bets for me and then convince Mother that I’m old and responsible enough for a pet dog?

Jay Cutler: Pet dog? We have a pet dog.

Reilly: We do!? Did you get one for me for Christmas, New Daddy!?

Jay Cutler: No, I assumed you were the pet dog. Are you not?

Reilly: New Daddy, that’s not nice! I’m too famous to be a pet dog!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about famous pet dogs, Kevin. Let’s begin with Snoopy, Kevin. Why don’t we discuss Lassie, Kevin? How about Beethoven, Kevin? If you’re ready for a cry, start talking about Old Yeller, Kevin. We can now segue to Air Bud, Kevin. Care to share about Clifford the Big Red Dog, Kevin? Any thoughts on Scooby-Doo, Kevin? There’s also Kevin, Kevin, who is a stupid dog, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, THE JOKE IS ON YOU ANYWAY BECAUSE DOGS ARE GREAT AND I DON’T MIND BEING CALLED ONE, YOU DOG-HATING LOSER! We’ll be back after this!

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: There could be a combination of four quarterbacks starting in this game. It seemed as though the Raiders wouldn’t have Aidan O’Connell when he was carted off the field against the Buccaneers, but it’s now sounding as though he’ll be able to play.

This is obviously bullish for the Raiders’ chances of winning this game, as their only alternative is Desmond Ridder, who hasn’t been on the team for very long. O’Connell has had some bright moments in this most recent stint with the Raiders, throwing for more than 300 yards against the Chiefs. O’Connell has been aided by Norv Turner, who joined the coaching staff during the Week 10 bye.

O’Connell has a great matchup in this game. The Falcons have improved their pass rush since their Week 12 bye, but they still have some major liabilities in the secondary. They also struggle against tight ends, which obviously bodes poorly against Brock Bowers.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: As for the Falcons’ quarterbacks, Kirk Cousins is likely to start again, but it’s not out of the question that Raheem Morris will turn to Michael Penix Jr. before or during the game. Cousins has been an interception machine in the past several games, and he does not look healthy. Morris may view turning to Penix as an opportunity to save his season.

Cousins, however, could have a better performance. The Raiders defense has been decimated by injuries, and they are nowhere near the league’s seventh-ranked defensive unit from last year. They struggle to defend receivers and tight ends, so Cousins should have success targeting his array of talented receivers and perhaps even Kyle Pitts if the Falcons remember that he exists.

The Raiders are still pretty solid against the run. However, this may not mean much against Bijan Robinson, who is an elite talent who can overcome any sort of difficult matchup.

RECAP: There’s a lot of uncertainty of when to bet and fade backup quarterbacks. I’ve done the research on this. Backup quarterbacks tend to struggle against top-12 defenses, and they cover at a winning rate when battling mediocre or poor stop units.

Do I need to tell you where the Falcons rank? Atlanta has gotten after the quarterback at a higher rate since the bye, but the team still can’t stop anything.

I like the Raiders and the points. With the help of Norv Turner, they should be able to move the ball on Atlanta. It also helps that there are Circadian rhythms in play here, as the Raiders have a built-in advantage over the Falcons, especially with this being a slightly later start time than usual.

I’m going to put the Raiders down for TBA units right now because we currently don’t know which quarterbacks will start.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re getting mixed signals as far as who the Raiders quarterback is going to be. Antonio Pierce said that Desmond Ridder is expected to start, but the NFL reporters are indicating that Aidan O’Connell has a good chance to play in this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Aidan O’Connell stated that he plans to play, but he hasn’t practiced yet this week. Maxx Crosby hasn’t either yet, by the way.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -3.5.

Computer Model: Falcons -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 52% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Falcons -4.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.