NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2024 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2024): 7-7-1 (-$975)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2024): 6-7-1 (-$1,275)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 6-6-1 (-$1,370)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2024): 11-4-1 (+$2,395)
2024 NFL Picks: 106-92-9 (-$1,520)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

---

Go to Week 14 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

Week 13 Analysis: We just had a great week! I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Lions, 3 units (loss): Our great week didn’t start off so well, with there being a bit of a bad beat. The Lions were up 16-0, but Jahmyr Gibbs fumbled inside the 5-yard line, and then Detroit barely scored in the second half.

Redskins, 4 units (win): This one was never in doubt.

Chargers, 3 units (win): The Chargers didn’t play as well as I thought they would, but they still were able to hang on for the win and cover.

Patriots, 3 units (win): We jumped on the Patriots late in the week when it was apparent that the Colts would have so many offensive line issues.

Rams, 5 units (win): The Rams began slowly, but caught fire in the second half. Still, this was a nail-biter at the end.

Bills, 5 units (win): Another one that was never in doubt, though we did get unlucky with Christian McCaffrey getting hurt because we had his over receiving yards. He was halfway there at the end of the first quarter!

Broncos, 5 units (win): I can’t believe the Broncos covered. We’ve had so much bad luck this year, so it was great to get one thing to go our way.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Teams that can’t stop the run against the Lions have no chance. This is why it was so shocking that the Bears came back from a 16-0 deficit on Thanksgiving. Sure, it could have been 23-0 had Gibbs not fumbled inside the 5-yard line, but Detroit’s inability to score beyond one touchdown in the second half was completely unexpected.

While the Bears are poor versus the run, the Packers have improved markedly against it this year. They just clamped down on De’Von Achane and Christian McCaffrey in consecutive weeks, so they could do a decent job of limiting the two Detroit backs, especially if Gibbs isn’t at 100 percent. Gibbs disappeared in the second half, ultimately receiving 12 fewer carries than David Montgomery.

The Packers are great overall on this side of the ball, as they also produce a ton of pressure without blitzing often. One area of weakness is their inability to defend tight ends. Sam LaPorta has been a huge disappointment this year, but perhaps Detroit can finally get him going.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I mentioned that the Packers have improved against the run. The Lions are tremendous when it comes to stopping the rush. In fact, they’re No. 1 in EPA rush defense. Josh Jacobs has been awesome for the Packers, but it’ll have to be “No Cookie” Jordan Love doing most of the damage this week.

Love was tasked with the same responsibility when these teams met in Week 9. Love, however, was horrible in that game because he was dealing with a groin injury. Love couldn’t move out of pressure, which led to a pick-six. He also couldn’t move downfield to spike the ball in a 2-minute drill. He shouldn’t have played in that first matchup.

Love is healthy now, and he could make amends for that prior loss. He’ll be able to target Jayden Reed, who has a great outlook against a Detroit defense that struggles to cover slot receivers. The Lions also have other issues in their back seven as a result of injuries. Christian Watson has a good chance of catching a deep pass or two, replicating what he did on Thanksgiving about a year ago.

RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

None of this applies this Thursday, however, because both the Lions and Packers played last Thursday, making this a regular-rest game for them. Thus, I have no issue taking the points.

The Lions easily won and covered in Green Bay, but the Packers seem like the right side this time. In that first meeting, the Lions were the easy play because Love was injured. Well, the turntables have turned this time because the Lions are now the team that is dealing with injuries. Detroit is going to be missing several defenders, and there’s no telling if Gibbs will be limited again.

The Packers seem like a good bet at +3.5. They’re one of the top teams in the NFC, and they showed last year that they can go toe to toe with Detroit. This seems like a field goal game to me, so backing the underdog makes sense.

Our Week 14 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Lions will be missing Taylor Decker and D.J. Reader on top of the players they have on injured reserve. I still like the Packers for a couple of units. Thus far, there’s been sharp money on Green Bay.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m betting on Jayden Reed tonight. The Lions have given up lots of production to slot receivers, and Reed will see an uptick in production with Romeo Doubs sidelined. The best number is over 59.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM.

We’re going to throw in the Reed over receiving yards, but at FanDuel (62.5) because BetMGM doesn’t have Sam LaPorta. I’m going over LaPorta receiving yards (38.5) and Jahmyr Gibbs receiving yards (20.5) because the Packers tend to allow a lot of production to tight ends and receiving backs. We’re also going under Tucker Kraft receiving yards (39.5) because the Lions are usually stout against tight ends. This $25 parlay pays $255 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s sharp money coming in on the Packers, and I agree with it. The Lions are very banged up, so this should be a close game. Most of the +3.5 lines are gone, but you can still get +3.5 -115 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -6.

Computer Model: Lions -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 51% (294,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Lions have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Packers are 66-43 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 55-39 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Lions -3.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Back in May, I theorized as to why the Falcons would possibly draft Michael Penix Jr. when they had just paid Kirk Cousins $100 million. I thought that perhaps the Falcons saw Cousins throw off his torn Achilles and thought, “Ah crap, this guy’s a lemon. We need another quarterback option for this year.” That obviously didn’t come to fruition, but perhaps I was just a few months too early.

Cousins has been terrible lately. He scored just six points against the Broncos despite Jameis Winston throwing for nearly 500 yards against that same defense a couple of weeks later. Following the bye, Cousins laid an egg against the Chargers, throwing four interceptions. One was in desperation mode, but the other three were horrible. There could be more interceptions to come, given that Cousins will be battling a coaching staff that is very familiar with him. Brian Flores is capable of confusing opposing quarterbacks, so he could befuddle his former signal-caller.

The Falcons won’t have the luxury of turning to the running game either. Bijan Robinson is great, but has an extremely difficult matchup against the Vikings, who have one of the top run defenses in the NFL.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Sam Darnold can definitely sympathize with Cousins’ bouts with interceptions. He had a pick spree several weeks ago. He launched two interceptions into the end zone versus the Jaguars, nearly costing Minnesota a victory against one of the worst teams in the NFL. Darnold has bounced back since, however, and has been pick-free in the past few weeks.

Darnold should remain mistake-free after this game because of the simple matchup. The Falcons have a troubled secondary that has been abused all year. Granted, it improved last week with a couple of players returning from injury, but there were still problems, particularly when it came to defending the slot. The Falcons have also been weak to tight ends all year, though this wasn’t the case a week ago.

Despite the ineptitude of Atlanta’s secondary, the Falcons were able to limit the Chargers last week. They did this very unexpectedly, sacking Justin Herbert five times. Herbert is protected well, so I don’t understand where that came from. Perhaps the Falcons figured something out during the bye week. If so, they’ll have a chance to slow down the opposition once again because the Vikings haven’t quite been the same since losing Christian Darrisaw to a season-ending injury.

RECAP: You can almost sense that the bottom is going to fall out for the Vikings. They’re 5-1 ever since Christian Darrisaw was lost for the year, but they’ve barely gotten by bad teams. For example, they beat the Jaguars by only five, and then had to escape the Bears in overtime two weeks later. They trailed Arizona 19-6 before a late rally. Minnesota has not played a team that currently has a winning record since losing Darrisaw.

The Falcons don’t have a winning record either, however. They’ve been downright terrible at times, especially when they’ve had to go out of the division. They were blown out by the Seahawks at home and recently were throttled at Denver. They had a chance to beat the wounded Chargers last week, but Cousins imploded with four interceptions.

Cousins, off the four-pick performance, should be more careful with the football this week, so he could, at the very least, keep this contest close. Besides, if the Vikings couldn’t beat the Jaguars, Bears, or Cardinals by more than five, why would they necessarily defeat Atlanta by a wider margin?

I don’t like the Falcons as a wager, but I will be siding with them. This is a tough game to handicap overall because I would rather fade both teams.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s still early in the week, but there’s been some sharp money coming in on Minnesota. I get it, but I would not be so eager to lay more than a field goal with Sam Darnold.

PLAYER PROPS: Kyle Pitts hasn’t done much in a while, but with Kirk Cousins struggling, Atlanta may get him going. Besides, the Vikings have been very leaky against tight ends lately. The number is only over 33.5 receiving yards -115, which you can find at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: There didn’t look to be too many pressing injury matters earlier in the week, but Stephon Gilmore was ruled out, while Andrew Van Ginkel and Harrison Phillips are both questionable. Van Ginkel is the big name, and he was limited all week. Phillips, meanwhile, was downgraded to limited on Friday. If Van Ginkel is out, I may consider a unit on the Falcons, but remember that none of these qualify as cluster injuries.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Andrew Van Ginkel is active, so I won’t be betting on the Falcons. The sharps were betting the Vikings at lines below -6. The best line is +6 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -4.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 59% (124,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Vikings are 46-37 ATS at home since 2014 (15-22 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -4.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 33-28 ATS through 11 weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Texans -4.5

Buccaneers -6

Cowboys -4

Seahawks +1.5

Lions -10

Not a good week from the public. They hit with the Cowboys and Seahawks, but lost with the other three. The public is now 35-31.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Steelers -6

Saints -5

Bills -4

Seahawks +3

A nice variety here, with two road favorites, a home favorite, and a road underdog.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints have lost so many offensive weapons and blockers this offseason, what’s two more? As if they didn’t have enough injuries on this side of the ball, the Saints saw Taysom Hill and Nick Saldiveri get carted off the field last week. Saldiveri was starting for one of the injured linemen, while Hill was obviously the key cog of the New Orleans’ offensive unit.

All hope isn’t lost, however, because there’s a chance the Saints could have two of their offensive linemen (Erik McCoy, Cesar Ruiz) back from injury, with McCoy being the key piece because he’s one of the best centers in the NFL. As for Hill, he’ll sorely be missed as a do-it-all gadget player, but his absence will unlock Alvin Kamara. The star back has been restricted in his usage because of Hill’s presence, but he’ll get the entire workload now. He has a great matchup against the Giants, who can’t stop the run at all.

Kamara’s presence as a runner and a receiver will at least keep the Giants honest. The one thing New York does well on this side of the ball is rush the passer – although that will be diminished in the wake of Dexter Lawrence’s injury – so it’ll help Derek Carr if he’s in constant short-yardage situations. Carr will need enough time to launch some downfield throws to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, which will be possible against the Giants’ troubled secondary.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Whatever troubles the Saints have offensively pales in comparison to what the Giants are experiencing. New York’s attempts to move the ball were pathetic against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving following an early drive that featured a long Drew Lock scramble. Lock was responsible for some horrible turnovers, while the other players made mistakes to ruin any sort of momentum the Giants could possibly establish.

It’s hard to imagine anything changing in this game. Some Giants players have called it quits after the front office and coaching staff decided to bench Daniel Jones and then cut him. The players know that the intention is to lose, so why should they care about winning? Furthermore, the Giants can’t block at all, which will be a problem in this game. The Saints have a pass rush that’s ranked slightly below average, but the unit was able to pressure Matthew Stafford consistently last week, and Stafford is protected better than either of the New York quarterbacks.

If the Giants can move the ball at all in this game, it’ll be via the run. Tyrone Tracy has plenty of upside, but he’s also been very prone to fumbling. He has a quality matchup, but the downside is certainly there.

RECAP: If I had any faith in the Giants trying, I would consider them as a bet this week. The Saints are not a good team, so it’s almost absurd that they would be favored by more than a field goal on the road against anyone.

The Giants, however, are in another stratosphere as far as futility is concerned. The front office made it known to the players that they are tanking by benching and then cutting their top quarterback. The players complained about it, and the team has performed accordingly since, losing badly to the Buccaneers and Cowboys. Now, the Giants will be even worse without Lawrence.

I’m going to be on the Saints as a pure fade of this blatantly tanking Giants team. Besides, there’s enough here to justify a pick on New Orleans. Kamara has a great matchup, while the Saints pass rush, which was better than usual last week, could give New York’s quarterback fits. And we saw this game already anyway. It occurred two weeks ago when the Buccaneers went into New York and blasted the Giants. The Saints aren’t as good as the Buccaneers, but keep in mind that Mike Evans didn’t play all the snaps in that game, plus this spread isn’t as high as that one was.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re really hoping for Erik McCoy and Cesar Ruiz to return to action (especially the former). Ruiz missed Wednesday’s practice, but McCoy was limited.

PLAYER PROPS: Alvin Kamara should go nuts in this game. The Giants run defense sucks, and Taysom Hill is gone, so Kamara will do everything. The best number is over 78.5 rushing yards -120 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: We got exactly what we wanted on the injury report. Both Saints interior linemen will be back in the lineup. The Giants, meanwhile, will have cluster injuries at offensive tackle (Andrew Thomas and Jermaine Eluemunor out) and defensive tackle (top three players out). Not only that, but Malik Nabers and Andru Phillips were DNP on Friday, while Bobby Okereke is out. I’m increasing the unit count to four.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Saints will have both interior linemen. The Giants, conversely, won’t have Dru Phillips, so they have cluster injuries at cornerback in addition to offensive tackle and defensive tackle. Malik Nabers is active, but expected to be limited. I love the Saints, and so do the sharps. The best line is Saints -5.5 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Giants are tanking.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -4.

Computer Model: Saints -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Tons of action on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 71% (92,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Derek Carr is 10-20 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+.

Derek Carr is 7-15 ATS as a road favorite.

Opening Line: Saints -4.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 46 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

Someone went back and checked my NFL Draft Grades. I find it funny when people criticize these, as if NFL general managers are flawless all the time with their selections. Still though, this was an odd one because I got the Josh Rosen re-grades correct when every blue check on Twitter was campaigning for Rosen to get more chances.

Here’s another from Bob:

Should I reply to Bob now and ask him what he thinks about my original grade now that Young is playing well? Do you think he’ll now criticize my re-grade? Bob’s not the smartest guy, so I don’t know how he would react.

Changing topics, I replied to this cat lady:

Take a look at how deranged her response is:

Wow, I really struck a nerve there. She proved my point that cat ladies should not be allowed to vote.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I imagine some people are going to be fooled leading up to this game. Will Levis has posted some pretty stats in recent weeks, particularly when throwing touchdowns to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. You’re going to see a high ownership on Levis and his receivers in DFS because of the numbers he has accumulated. He’ll be expected to keep pace against Jacksonville’s horrible defense.

The problem with this thinking is that most of Levis’ production has come against teams that weren’t interested in competing, whether it’s because it was garbage time, or the opposing team was caught in a flat spot. Levis has great ability, but he’s also very reckless with the ball. He also stands in the pocket for an eternity. The Jaguars have some talented edge rushers who could get to him as a result.

This can all be countered, however, via the run. The Jaguars have maintained one of the league’s worst rush defenses in recent weeks. Tony Pollard, who is capable of going the distance whenever he touches the ball, figures to have a big game.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Speaking of going the distance whenever a running back touches the ball, Brian Robinson Jr. did this in the matchup against the Titans. This was mildly surprising because the Titans have been stout against the run all year. However, Tennessee has had so many departures via injury and trades that it’s really beginning to catch up with them.

The Jaguars weren’t able to run the ball very well last week, but that could change with Tank Bigsby. That’ll help Mac Jones, who is expected to start the rest of the way with Trevor Lawrence dealing with multiple maladies, including the crushing hit he took from Azeez Al-Shaair last week.

Jones starting against the Titans would have been an automatic fade early in the season when the Titans had some great defensive personnel, including two shutdown cornerbacks in Chidobe Awuzie and L’Jarius Sneed. Both cornerbacks have been out for quite some time, however, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg because Tennessee has also seen safeties and linebackers land on injured reserve. Jones, as a result, could look like a functional quarterback.

RECAP: I’d like to quote Andy Iskoe, our picks video co-host on Thursday nights: “When garbage plays against garbage, take garbage plus the points.”

That’s what I’ll be doing in this game. I wish we could fade Jones, but we’ll have to wait another week. Going against terrible quarterbacks versus good defenses is usually a lucrative strategy, but the Titans don’t have a good defense. They did to start the year, but they’ve lost so much personnel to injury this season. They currently rank 27th in adjusted defensive EPA.

Besides, who is Levis to be laying a field goal over anyone? The Titans couldn’t even beat the Patriots at home by more than three. Why would they defeat the Jaguars by a larger margin?

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Titans might get back Chidobe Awuzie, but it’ll be too little, too late for them. They have plenty of other injuries as well, including T’Vondre Sweat, who was DNP on Wednesday with a shoulder. Sweat’s absence would really open things up for Jacksonville’s running game.

PLAYER PROPS: I was concerned with betting the Tony Pollard over last week despite the positive matchup because the game had the potential to be completely lopsided. That turned out to be the case, but it won’t be in this game. Pollard should be able to rip through Jacksonville’s poor run defense The best number is over 68.5 rushing yards -115 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Titans are going to have Chidobe Awuzie on the field for the first time since Week 3. However, T’Vondre Sweat and Roger McCreary both failed to practice all week, and Tennessee is going to be down multiple linebackers. I don’t think the cluster injuries at linebacker are enough for me to bet on the Jacksonville with Mac Jones.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Titans are down some key defenders in Roger McCreary, Kenneth Murray, and Jerome Baker. T’Vondre Sweat will play, and that was the big questionable player. The sharps bet the Jaguars down to +3 in most places. The best line is +3.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Titans -2.5.

Computer Model: Titans -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Slight lean on the Titans.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 62% (88,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Titans have won 12 of the past 17 meetings (Jaguars won 3 of last 4).

Opening Line: Titans -4.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Chance of rain, 56 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

Contest Announcement time!

Our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: You may have noticed that Baker Mayfield missed a couple of snaps against the Panthers, and then, upon return, threw an interception. This transpired in the middle of the game when Mayfield was cleated in the back of his right leg. It looked like a serious injury at the time, but Mayfield was perfect upon finishing the game. He even had a key scramble to set up a late score.

There’s no concern with Mayfield missing this game. He’ll be ready to go with Mike Evans against a horrid Raiders pass defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone since losing Christian Wilkins on top of Malcolm Koonce. The Raiders can obviously still get some pressure with Maxx Crosby, but Mayfield is protected well, thanks to the return of Tristan Wirfs. He’ll have enough time in the pocket to deliver strikes to Evans and Cade Otton, both of whom have tremendous matchups in this game.

The Buccaneers will also feed the ball to Bucky Irving, who has been excellent in the two games since the bye. The Raiders are better against the run than the pass, but really only by default. They’ve allowed some big games to De’Von Achane and Chase Brown recently.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Unlike the Buccaneers, the Raiders won’t get much on the ground. They have one of the league’s worst rushing attacks, with pedestrian backs running behind a poor offensive line. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, clamp down on the rush extremely well.

It’ll have to be all on Aidan O’Connell, though to his credit, he performed on a high level in the second half against the Chiefs. Kansas City’s pass defense has struggled this year, but the same can be said of Tampa’s stop unit – for the most part. While the Buccaneers have surrendered some huge performances through the air, those have been exclusively to quality quarterbacks. Bad quarterbacks have done poorly against them, which is a phenomenon I’ll expand on in the recap section.

O’Connell will have an opportunity to move the chains on throws to Brock Bowers, who has a dream matchup. It could be argued that Bowers is already the best tight end in the NFL, and he’ll be going against a Tampa Bay defense that hasn’t been able to stop tight ends all year.

RECAP: I wrote that I wasn’t sure what to do with the Buccaneers last week. This pertained to their ability to dismantle bad quarterbacks. Dating back to last year when the defense first declined, the Buccaneers have battled the following bad quarterbacks: Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder (twice), Will Levis, Bryce Young (twice), Spencer Rattler, and now Tommy DeVito. In those eight games, they’ve allowed an average of 14.5 points, and they’re 6-2 against the spread.

I wasn’t sure, however, if Young belonged in that pantheon last week because his play had improved. Surely enough, Young played well enough to win. He was a Chuba Hubbard lost fumble away from being victorious.

I’m confident that O’Connell belongs in that group. He had a good game against Kansas City, but the Chiefs defense has been leaking oil recently. O’Connell was the third-worst quarterback in the NFL last year, according to EPA when discarding garbage time. He was utterly atrocious earlier this year against the Steelers. Bowles will throw enough at him to confuse him, while the Raider defense won’t be able to stop anything Tampa Bay is doing.

This isn’t one of my biggest plays of the week, but I like the Buccaneers enough to bet a few units on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both Mike Evans and Bucky Irving missed Wednesday’s practice, which is far from ideal when considering that I plan on betting three units on the Buccaneers.

PLAYER PROPS: We bet Brock Bowers’ over receiving yards on Black Friday. That worked out, and so we’re going to run it back. Bowers has been incredible, and he’s going up against one of the worst defenses in the NFL when it comes to defending tight ends. The best number is over 69.5 receiving yards -113 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Mike Evans will play, but Bucky Irving’s status is unknown. I’m not as bullish on the Buccaneers after thinking about this game some more. The Raiders have a big rest edge with the two extra days of preparation. The Buccaneers, conversely, are coming off overtime and travel. I did the research, and teams coming off overtime and shorter rest than their opponent are 41-49 ATS since the lockout. It’s not automatically disqualifying, as you can see, but it doesn’t seem like a great spot. Plus, the Raiders offense has been better since Norv Turner joined the team since the bye.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Raiders at +7. The only +7 I’m seeing is for -115 vig at DraftKings. I considered switching my pick, but I’ll stick with the Buccaneers. The best line is -6.5 -114 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -7.5.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Late money on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 71% (112,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Road Team is 140-96 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 43-74 ATS at home in the previous 117 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -7.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 72 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below. In addition to WalterFootball t-shirts, you can also buy AMC and GameStop stock gear as well!

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Jameis Winston was incredible on Monday night. He made some incredible throws deep downfield to Jerry Jeudy to keep pace in a shootout with the Broncos. He was also incredible for our sportsbook account with his two pick-sixes, including the final one that clinched the cover. It was truly the complete Jameis Winston experience.

Winston will have a chance to continue his mostly strong play. He thrived in this matchup two weeks ago despite snowy conditions. He hit Jeudy six times for 85 yards, and that figures to continue with Pittsburgh having some issues defending outside receivers on deep shots. Pittsburgh can help mask this deficiency with its great pass rush, but that didn’t affect Winston very much two weeks ago because the Browns have a strong offensive line.

We will have to see if Winston will have all of his weapons on the field. Cedric Tillman missed the Monday night game with a concussion. Meanwhile, Nick Chubb barely played. Chubb had one of his better games this year against Pittsburgh, but that’s not really saying much.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Russell Wilson didn’t have quite as much success as Winston in Thursday’s blizzard. The moon balls weren’t all there, save for a couple of exceptions. The result was the team’s third loss of the year, though Wilson bounced back nicely the following week. He torched the hapless Bengals for 400-plus yards.

Wilson doesn’t seem likely to have another great performance. The Browns can get after the quarterback with Myles Garrett and company, and Pittsburgh’s offensive line simply doesn’t project to give Wilson enough time in this matchup.

The Steelers would be better served establishing the run. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combined for 86 rushing yards in this matchup two weeks ago, and that’s not even factoring in Justin Fields’ 26 rushing yards. The prior week, the Browns surrendered big gains to Taysom Hill. On Monday night, Jaleel McLaughlin looked like a decent back against them. Pittsburgh should be able to move the chains on the ground.

RECAP: One of the reasons we faded the Browns on Monday night was because they were coming off a win. Bad teams struggle to sustain success. So, it was quite shocking that Cleveland was able to compete with the Broncos. The Browns were so close to winning on a field goal at the end.

The Browns are no longer coming off a victory, so they’re fair game in this rematch. I can understand the Steelers being able to formulate a new game plan to avenge the Week 12 loss, but Winston has shown that he’s fully capable of engineering late drives to score back-door touchdowns. He can also secure covers for the opposition with back-breaking pick-sixes, so it could certainly go the other way.

I’m going to side with the Browns, but I don’t really see a strong betting angle in this game, aside from the fact that the Steelers have to battle the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs after this contest. Plus, Mike Tomlin isn’t at his best when favored.

I don’t think the look-ahead factor is enough for me to bet this game. Maybe that’s for the best because the Broncos-Browns game may have shaved five years off my life, and I don’t think I can handle another Jameis adventure so soon.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Cedric Tillman, Jedrick Wills, and Juan Thornhill all failed to return to Wednesday’s practice. Then again, the Browns just played on Monday, so a quick return to practice for these guys shouldn’t have been expected.

PLAYER PROPS: No props stand out to me here, so I’ll pass on them in this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: George Pickens was a downgrade on Friday with a hamstring, but he was limited and not out. I wouldn’t be too worried about it. I’m still neutral on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: George Pickens is out. This itself is not enough for me to bet the Browns. The sharps are on Cleveland though. The only good +6.5 line I see is for -108 vig at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Steelers have to play the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs after this game.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -6.

Computer Model: Steelers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Tons of money on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 67% (112,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 39 of the last 49 meetings excluding a 2018 tie.

Steelers are 43-22 ATS in December/January home games since 2000.

Mike Tomlin is 11-6 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Opening Line: Steelers -6.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 47 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: This was the Panthers I expected to see at the beginning of the year. They’ve lost two in a row, but they’ve been highly competitive in their games against the Chiefs and Buccaneers. Young appears to have taken the next step, as opposed to the broken quarterback we saw get blown out against the Saints and Chargers to begin the season.

Young will be tested here, however, as he just went against two defenses that have been struggling against the pass. The Eagles are a different animal, thanks to their two brilliant rookie cornerbacks. Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean will be able to limit Young’s receivers, which could cause the former No. 1 overall pick to panic.

One thing that will be in Young’s favor is that he’ll be able to have time in the pocket despite staring down Philadelphia’s pass rush. The Panthers block well, so this will be key because Young won’t be able to lean on the run at all, given that the Eagles are one of the top teams when it comes to stopping ground attacks.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: While the Eagles excel at stopping the run, the Panthers are anemic against it. They have one of the worst ground defense units in the NFL, so it’ll take a miracle for them to even come close to containing Saquon Barkley.

Barkley running wild will cause obvious problems for the Panthers. Jalen Hurts will constantly be in short-yardage situations, which will help negate Carolina’s pass rush. The Panthers struggled mightily to get to the quarterback earlier in the year, but D.J. Wonnum’s return to the lineup has greatly changed that.

Hurts being able to avoid the pass rush with not just short-yardage situations, but with his mobility will be huge for the Eagles. A.J. Brown should have a great game as a consequence, as he’ll pick up where Mike Evans left off last week.

RECAP: We’re about to see what Young is truly made of. He has played well in recent weeks, but every defense he has battled in the past four games – Saints, Giants, Chiefs, Buccaneers – is ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in net EPA. The Eagles are first. It’ll be much more difficult for Young to avoid the bad play that plagued him prior to his benching.

The Eagles seem like the right side, but I’m worried about their focus. They are coming off a huge statement victory over the Ravens, and after this “easy” game, they have to battle the Steelers, Redskins, and Cowboys. This game could be like the contest the Eagles had against the Jaguars several weeks ago when they went up 22-0 and then allowed a back-door cover when they goofed around.

An argument could be made with siding with Carolina. I just worry too much about the Eagles covering with ease if they decide to concentrate on this game. They are chasing the No. 1 seed, after all, so it’s possible that they could be focused.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: DeVonta Smith practiced fully on Wednesday, so he’s ready to go. He’s coming back at the right time because Dallas Goedert is considered “week to week” with a knee injury.

PLAYER PROPS: The Eagles barely threw against the Ravens, which is why A.J. Brown’s receiving yards remained frozen throughout the second half. The Panthers are poor to outside receivers, so Brown should have a big game. The best number is over 76.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Panthers have been better defensively lately, but they could be down a couple of impactful players on this side of the ball. Josey Jewell and D.J. Wonnum are both questionable. Jewell was limited-DNP-limited this week, so he’s very iffy. Wonnum at least got in a full session on Friday, so he should be good to go. The Eagles will be worth a bet if both players are out, so stay tuned for updates Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m sure you’ve seen the news that someone bet $3.1 million on the Eagles to win outright. However, the payout is for less than $500,000, so it’s not a hue liability for Circa, so I’m not concerned. There was some sharp money on the Eagles at -12.5 and -13. The line is now -14. The best vig you can get is -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Eagles battle the Steelers, Redskins, and Cowboys afer this game.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -13.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -13.

Computer Model: Eagles -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Slight lean on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 62% (98,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Eagles -12.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Likely rain, 50 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

Video of the Week: Anyone who has watched the most recent Star Wars movies knows that the three newest films have been horrible. Here’s a different direction they could have gone, and it involves Randy Savage:

As nonsensical as this is, it’s a billion times better than Episode VIII!

MIAMI OFFENSE: Without looking, can you guess which team led the league in missed tackles per game heading into Week 13? Perhaps I’m leading the witness here, but it is, in fact, the Jets. One would think that with all the talent New York has, this wouldn’t be the case, but it sadly has been. The Jets can’t tackle at all, thanks to their horrible coaching.

The Jets’ inability to tackle will have a huge impact on this game because the Dolphins now prefer to get the ball out of Tua Tagovailoa’s hands and into the arms of his talented skill players. New York will surely miss many tackles against De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Jonnu Smith.

Speaking of Achane, some may expect him to thrive as a runner because the Jets also struggle to stop the run. However, New York has actually improved its ability to stop ground attacks recently. This, however, doesn’t mean that Achane won’t have a big game, as I expect him to be a dominant producer as a receiver out of the backfield.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: While the Jets have been far worse defensively than expected, the opposite is true of Miami. The Dolphins have put the clamps on some of their opponents recently, as their pass rush has been superb. Zach Sieler and Chop Robinson have been monsters in the trenches.

The Jets don’t block well, so it’s hard to like Aaron Rodgers’ chances of succeeding in this matchup. Tyron Smith being injured has had a huge impact on Rodgers, who is not protected well by rookie left tackle Olu Fashanu. Let’s not forget, by the way, that Joe Douglas passed on Brock Bowers in favor of Fashanu because he didn’t want to draft a tight end in the first round. You have to wonder where New York would be with Bowers serving as a dynamic threat over the middle of the field for Rodgers.

At any rate, Rodgers will continue to struggle, and he won’t be able to lean on his rushing attack either. The Dolphins clamp down on the run very well. The last time any running back gained more than 62 rushing yards against them was Oct. 6.

RECAP: A popular sentiment I’ve seen ahead of Week 14 is that this spread is surprisingly high. No one seems to believe that the Dolphins should be -6.5 instead of something like -3.5 or -4.

I actually think this spread is too low! My projected numbers say that the Dolphins should be -9. The EPA figures are even mor extreme. The metrics have the Jets as the worst team in the NFL right now, so the EPA line says Miami -14 is correct.

We know how both of these teams operate by now. The Dolphins can’t beat the good teams, but they’ll beat all the bad teams. And the Jets will lose to everyone because they are horrible. New York was gifted 21 points on special teams last week, yet still found a way to lose to Seattle at home. And yet, everyone continues to bet them. I referred to the Jets – and also the Bengals and 49ers – as falling knives, comparing them to plummeting stocks in the stock market people buy because the price looks like a bargain, but in reality, it’s not even close to hitting rock bottom. This perfectly describes the Jets, who have covered the spread only once since Week 3.

I like that Miami is coming off a blowout loss with extended rest. Good teams tend to bounce back after being embarrassed. It could be argued that Miami isn’t good, but the team certainly has lots of talent. Perhaps they’re the worst of the good teams or the best of the mediocre onces. Either way, the Dolphins look like they’re in a great spot to rebound and feast on a hapless Jets squad.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Breece Hall, Sauce Gardner, and Alijah Vera-Tucker all missed Wednesday’s practice. As someone who will be betting on the Dolphins, I was very happy to see that news.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing stands out to me in this game. The Dolphins are very weak against tight ends, but Aaron Rodgers stopped using Tyler Conklin after Davante Adams was acquired.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jets are going to be missing lots of personnel. Sauce Gardner and Breece Hall are both doubtful. Tyron Smith is already on injured reserve, and Alijah Vera-Tucker, Morgan Moses, and Olu Fashanu all look iffy to play. C.J. Mosley was placed on injured reserve. This team already sucked, and now they have lots of injuries. Meanwhile, the Dolphins will have Kendall Fuller back, and Bradley Chubb could return as well.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been mixed on this game. They bet the Jets earlier in the week, but then jumped on the Dolphins late. Unfortunately, that means all the -6s are gone. The best line is -6.5 -107 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Dolphins.

The Dolphins are coming off a blowout loss.

The Spread. Edge: Dolphins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -9.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -6.5.

Computer Model: Dolphins -14.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Lots of late money on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 76% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Dolphins have won 11 of the last 13 meetings.

Aaron Rodgers is 131-96 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 30-22 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 40-27 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Dolphins are 34-47 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -6.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Sunny, 76 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.