NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2024 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
2024 NFL Picks: 55-60-4 (-$3,720)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

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Week 7 Analysis: I truly believe that we are cursed. I, or someone who is betting my picks, must have done something akin to urinating on an Indian burial ground. There were three quarterbacks who suffered injuries in Week 7, and we bet three-plus units on all of them. All of them! By the end of the games, we were rooting for Tim Boyle, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Gardner Minshew. What did we do to deserve this?

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Jaguars, 5 units (win): The start of the week looked so promising…

Seahawks, 3 units (win): This one was never in doubt.

Browns, 4 units (loss): Deshaun Watson is not a good quarterback by any means, but we had no chance when Dorian Thompson-Robinson entered the game. He couldn’t even complete half of his passes against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Dolphins, 3 units (loss): The Dolphins were winning 10-0 as three-point underdogs, but they fumbled a million times in this game. Then, Tyler Huntley got hurt, and we had to cheer on Boyle, the worst quarterback I’ve ever seen. Boyle forgot what down it was on the final drive. I wish I were making that up.

Raiders, 3 units (win): We sort of got lucky here with the back-door field goal, but this was another game in which we lost our starting quarterback. Minshew was a disaster. The Rams scored every single one of their points off Minshew’s turnovers.

Jets, 4 units (loss): I have no idea what happened with the Jets. They were up 15-6, but ended up losing 37-15. I had a worry about their emotional state upon getting Davante Adams, but ignored it as the week progressed, so this was a poor call on my part. Still, a 37-15 loss to a Steeler team that got outgained by 200 yards versus the Cowboys? How does that happen?

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I think most people assumed that if the Vikings suffered a defeat, it would be the offense’s fault, with Sam Darnold suffering a meltdown. Darnold wasn’t to blame for the loss to the Lions, however. Darnold misfired just five times against Detroit.

Darnold would have projected very well in this matchup earlier in the year. The Rams had major problems against the pass to start the season, but they’ve gotten better lately. They pressured Minshew heavily last week and forced him into multiple turnovers. Darnold probably won’t give the ball away nearly as often, thanks to the quality pass protection, but the Rams having Darious Williams again will allow them to not get torched quite easily.

The Vikings will do their best running the ball. The Rams are still weak to the rush, and Aaron Jones will be healthier this week after getting injured in London.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The big news here is that the Rams will have Cooper Kupp back from injury. Kupp practiced on a limited basis last week, but didn’t suit up because he wasn’t quite ready. He’ll be able to play this week after undergoing full practices.

Matthew Stafford will be thrilled to have Kupp, as he’ll be a great safety valve to counter Brian Flores’ chaotic blitzes. Stafford is great against the blitz in the first place. Stafford’s completion percentage and EPA are both higher when he’s blitzed rather than when he’s not blitzed.

The Rams might have success running the ball as well. The Vikings just allowed Jahmyr Gibbs to generate some big gains, and Kyren Williams has been stellar ever since the Rams had some injured/suspended offensive linemen return to action.

RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

I don’t think I need to tell you that the Vikings are the better team. The Rams have been blown out on multiple occasions this year. The Vikings, meanwhile, are a field goal away from being 6-0.

Now, the question is if the Vikings will be motivated. I assume most people would think so, given that Minnesota just suffered its first loss of the year. However, I’m not sure if that sentiment is correct. There’s a long history of previously unbeaten teams struggling after their first defeat. Teams in this situation after Week 6 are 32-42 against the spread, including 1-3 on Thursday night.

I’m still going to stick with the Vikings, but with Kupp returning, the Rams will be better than they were previously. Plus, there are a handful of coaches who can prepare a team off very short rest, and Sean McVay is one of them.

Our Week 8 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Trade rumors have surfaced surrounding Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford. I have to believe this will serve as a distraction for the Rams. I’m a bit more confident in the Vikings, but I don’t think I can get there as far as betting them.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m betting Cooper Kupp’s over receiving yardage. I don’t think the Rams would be playing if he weren’t 100 percent, given that he was held out last week. The Rams want to trade Kupp, so I imagine they’ll pepper him with targets to showcase that he’s 100 percent. The best number is over 67.5 -110 at FanDuel.

I’m going to toss in the Kupp over prop with Aaron Jones over 71.5 rushing yards, Colby Parkinson over 29.5 receiving yards, and Ty Chandler under 21.5 rushing yards. The Rams are very weak to the run, and Jones is fully healthy. He’s handling all the carries, so I don’t expect Chandler to do much. Meanwhile, the Vikings allow lots of yardage to tight ends. This $25 prop pays $322.02 on FanDuel with a 30-percent profit boost. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Puka Nacua is active, but for all we know, he could be a distraction. The public doesn’t care, as it’s pounding the Vikings, whereas the sharps are on the Rams. I still have no strong opinion on this game. The best line is Minnesota -2.5 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Rams.

The Vikings could have a letdown after their first loss.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -3.

Computer Model: Vikings -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Tons of action on the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 76% (277,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Vikings -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

DETROIT OFFENSE: Jared Goff has entered the MVP discussion chat. Goff had a slow start to his season in the first couple of weeks, but has caught fire since. He was flawless on a Monday night a few weeks ago, and he torched the Vikings in the second half on a near-perfect afternoon.

This would have been a difficult matchup for Goff to begin the season, but that’s not the case anymore. The Titans, who are 10th in defensive EPA, didn’t have either starting cornerback last week, as Chidobe Awuzie and L’Jarius Sneed were both out of the lineup. This allowed Josh Allen to torch the Titans in the second half despite having no chemistry with Amari Cooper.

Goff obviously has chemistry with his weapons. He’ll expose Tennessee’s new weaknesses with his many threats. He won’t have great support from his rushing attack because the Titans play the run well, but Jahmyr Gibbs could expose the linebacking corps as a receiver out of the backfield.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans started Mason Rudolph last week as a result of Will Levis’ shoulder injury. Rudolph didn’t make any of Levis’ patented bone-headed plays, but he was ineffective at moving the chains. Tennessee was blown out after establishing a 10-0 lead.

The Titans will likely go back to Levis if he’s OK. This means that there will be more turnovers. Levis gives the Titans a chance at explosive plays, but his floor is much lower than Rudolph’s. At the very least, he won’t face much pressure from a front missing Aidan Hutchinson.

Another issue for the Titans is that they won’t be able to establish the run. Given Levis’ issues, the only way they can be successful is by having Tony Pollard make big gains. This won’t work because Detroit is one of the top teams against rushing attacks.

RECAP: This is an obvious sandwich situation for the Lions. They’re coming off a huge, last-second victory over the previously unbeaten Vikings. Following this non-conference game against the Titans, they have to take on the Packers.

I can’t imagine we’re going to get Detroit’s best effort. And yet, that could still be enough to win and cover against the Titans, who are a complete disaster right now. Their offense is either turnover-prone with Levis or completely inept with Rudolph. Their defense, meanwhile, is missing several players, including both cornerbacks.

I could see the Titans hanging around for a while in this game, but the Lions ultimately scoring enough in the fourth quarter to get the cover, much like Buffalo last week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Mason Rudolph will reportedly start again because Will Levis isn’t quite ready to play. The other big news is that the Titans have traded some key pieces like DeAndre Hopkins and Ernest Jones. This is a clear sign that the team is waving the white flag, so I don’t think they’ll be very motivated. That nullifies the Lions potentially looking ahead, so I’m more than willing to bet two or three units on Detroit, depending on how Tennessee’s injury situation shakes out.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m not going to have any props for this game. This could be a blowout, so we may not see the starters for very long. You could go under on some players, but the numbers for that don’t seem great.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Titans will be missing both starting cornerbacks, which sounds like such a disaster for them. They’re also going to be down DeAndre Hopkins and Ernest Jones because of the trades. The Lions aren’t in a great motivational spot, but they should still be able to defeat Tennessee rather easily.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Calvin Ridley will play, but Tennessee will be without its top two cornerbacks and newly acquired linebacker Jerome Baker. The Titans are a mess, and there is some sharp money on Detroit (though not a lot). The best line is -12 -110 at a few books, including Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Lions are in a sandwich situation. They just beat the Vikings and will be looking ahead to the Packers.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -9.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -9.5.

Computer Model: Lions -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Who in their right mind wants to bet the Lions right now?

Percentage of money on Detroit: 92% (97,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Lions -9.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 13-14 ATS through six weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Redskins -10

Bills -9.5

Eagles -3

Chiefs +2.5

Bengals -5.5

Lions +1.5

Ravens -4

The public was 7-14 heading into Week 6. Well, in Week 6, every single public side won. All six. And in Week 7, every single public side won. All seven. This is truly unbelievable. The publicly backed sides are now 21-14 on the year, as sportsbooks have taken a huge beating lately.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Lions -10.5

Packers -4.5

Steelers -6.5

Ravens -10

Cardinals +3

Texans -6

If you’ve parlayed all the publicly backed teams the past two weeks, you’re doing very well for yourself right now. Will this continue?

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Deshaun Watson was one of the three quarterbacks we lost last week. There would have been an upgrade to Jameis Winston, but the Browns foolishly decided to make Dorian Thompson-Robinson the No. 2 quarterback for the first time all year. We truly can’t catch a break.

It’s unknown who will start for the Browns this week. Winston will have a chance to move the chains because he’s capable of delivering the ball to his play-makers. David Njoku is finally healthy, while Jerry Jeudy has talent (and hands of stone). There’s also Cedric Tillman, who did well last week. Losing Amari Cooper hurts, but the Browns can have some semblance of an offense, especially with Nick Chubb drawing attention out of the backfield.

Thompson-Robinson, conversely, will be a disaster. He won’t be able to expose Baltimore’s poor cornerbacks like Winston can. He couldn’t even complete half of his passes against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL last week. He can run around, but that is not a sustainable method of attack if there’s no downfield passing threat.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens also saw a major player of theirs suffer an injury last week. Zay Flowers hurt his ankle in the opening quarter against the Buccaneers. Flowers returned to action, but was sparingly used as a decoy.

If Flowers isn’t 100 percent, that could hurt Baltimore’s chances of consistently moving the chains in this game. The Browns stop the ran very well – they just limited Saquon Barkley two weeks ago – so Jackson will handle everything himself. The Browns have been weak to No. 1 receivers, but they won’t have to worry about that if Flowers is limited or sidelined.

The Browns have done extremely well in other regards on this side of the ball. They’ve clamped down on tight ends extremely well, so I wouldn’t count on Mark Andrews scoring two touchdowns again.

RECAP: How I handicap this game will depend on which quarterback the Browns will start. If it’s Winston, I will definitely be on the Browns for several units. Winston is a better quarterback than Watson, and he gives Cleveland a chance to be competitive. This spread is way too high if Winston starts; I made this line Baltimore -5, while the EPA numbers say it should be Baltimore -3.5. A -10 line is absurd. The Ravens are a good team, but they’re not that good. They can’t pass protect or stop aerial attacks. Their defensive EPA is 23rd. There’s no way a team, playing on short rest, with a 23rd-ranked defense, should be a nine-point road favorite versus a team with a competent quarterback.

Conversely, if the Browns give Thompson-Robinson the nod, I’ll be on Baltimore. Thompson-Robinson is a complete disaster, and I imagine the Cleveland players know that. We might just see the Browns give up because they’ll know that the coaching staff is not putting their team in the best position to win.

Once the announcement is made, I’ll have my finalized pick and unit count. Check back, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jameis Winston will start, which makes the Browns a decent play for me. The Ravens have a poor defense, and they’re coming off a short work week. At the very least, they’ll be in a situation where they could easily surrender a back-door cover. It helps Cleveland’s cause that Zay Flowers missed Wednesday’s practice.

PLAYER PROPS: David Njoku is now the No. 1 receiver on the Browns in the wake of the Amari Cooper trade. Njoku had 10 catches for 76 yards last week, and this is an easier matchup for him. The best number is over 52.5 receiving yards -110 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: Some injury updates: Zay Flowers is questionable after going DNP-DNP-limited this week, while Marlon Humphrey is out. For the Browns, Jedrick Wills will be sidelined, but Wyatt Teller should return after having a full practice on Friday. I still like the Browns quite a bit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jedrick Wills is out, but Wyatt Teller is back. The sharps are all over the Browns. They’ve dragged this line down to +7.5 in most places, but you can find +8 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Ravens are coming off a national TV blowout win.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -9.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 86% (128,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Ravens have won 25 of the last 32 meetings (Road Team has covered 18 of the last 27 non-pushes).

John Harbaugh is 15-7 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Ravens -9.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Sunny, 56 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

I posted my thoughts on Miami’s offense on Twitter and got mostly positive responses. This guy, on the other hand, is a deranged loon. My only regret was not calling him Ingold’s man lover. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

Meanwhile, you may have heard that Donald Trump was working at a McDonald’s. That McDonald’s was right around the corner from my house! Unfortunately, I could not go because it was a football Sunday. Still, this gave us some material to use here because childless cat ladies took issue with this:

Trump could rescue kids from a burning building, and childless cat ladies like Shawna would take issue with it. She belongs in a mental ward.

Last one:

If you’re wondering what my dead uncles have to do with this, I’ll be discussing this tweet and others in an impending Jerks of the Week entry.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: A major reason why the Packers failed to cover the spread last week was because “No Cookie” Jordan Love threw two interceptions early in the game, resulting in 10 easy points for the Texans. Houston scored just 12 points otherwise, failing to generate 200 yards of offense.

The Packers rallied and won because Love was terrific in the second half. That should carry over into this game because the Jaguars have the 27th-ranked defensive EPA. They’ve gotten Tyson Campbell back from injury, but still happen to be terrible against the pass. They can’t cover outside receivers, which wasn’t much of an issue last week because New England has no talent there. Green Bay obviously does with Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks.

The Jaguars are better against the run. They’re just outside of the top 10 in rush defense, so Josh Jacobs will be held in check as a runner. The Packers could have success with him as receiver because the Jaguars struggle mightily against pass-catching backs. As it so happens, Jacobs just caught his first career receiving touchdown. Could he do it again?

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence’s two performances in London were night and day. He was dreadful against the Bears, missing several receivers for big gains. He performed much better last week, mimicking what he did prior to the London games when he torched the Colts.

The differences in these performances have to do with the caliber of defenses he’s faced. The Bears are far better than the Colts and Patriots as far as defensive ability is concerned. The Packers are definitely in the same pantheon as Chicago rather than Indianapolis and New England. Their pass rush is stellar. Of all the NFL teams that blitz at a lesser clip than 20 percent, they have the best pass rush in the league. The Jaguars don’t pass protect well, so Lawrence could be forced into turnovers.

The one area in which Jacksonville could succeed is via the run. It took Doug Pederson a while, but he has seemingly figured out that Tank Bigsby is his best running option. Then again, he could revert to Travis Etienne if the former first-rounder returns from injury.

RECAP: This seems like an easy spot to fade the Jaguars. They’re coming off a huge win on an international stage. They celebrated their win over the Patriots as if they won the Super Bowl. Any time a bad team wins in blowout fashion, especially in a showcase game, you have to look to go against them if it makes sense to do so, and we’re getting that sort of spot in this situation.

Jacksonville stinks. It has gotten blown out twice this year by the Bills and Bears. Buffalo is one of the better teams in the NFL, while Chicago ranks in the top five of net adjusted EPA. The Packers are in same pantheon. Now that Love is healthy, I consider Green Bay to be one of the best teams in the NFL. The offense is lethal, while the defense has been surprisingly good. And if you think this spread is high, I believe it to be too short; I made this line Green Bay -6.

Given that the Packers are far superior and are getting the Jaguars in an obvious flat spot, I plan on betting the road favorite for a few units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Jaguars may not have Cam Robinson, which will only help Green Bay’s great pass rush. Something I missed with the Packers is that they have to battle the Lions next week, so they may not be focused. I’m going to remove the projection units I had on this game.

PLAYER PROPS: The Jaguars have allowed monster production to all viable tight ends they’ve played against this year. Cole Kmet and Hunter Henry combined for 170 receiving yards in the two London games. Tucker Kraft has been excellent this year, so he should have another great game this week. The best number is over 35.5 receiving yards -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jaguars might have two players back from injury. Cam Robinson needs to clear concussion protocol, which he did, according to Doug Pederson, who later backtracked. Meanwhile, excellent linebacker Foye Oluokun has a chance to return from injured reserve. If you missed it, I’m not planning on betting this game because the Packers could look ahead to their game against the Lions.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Jaguars, but this is nothing new. They’ve been betting Jacksonville every week. You can even get a -3 line for -123 vig at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Packers.

The Jaguars are coming off a big win on an international stage.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

All the money on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 83% (135,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Matt LaFleur is 53-37 ATS in the regular season.

Jaguars are 63-109 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 19-53 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: Packers -4.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Slight chance of thunderstorms, 80 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: I briefly discussed the Texans’ scoring unit in the previous pick capsule. A 22-point result against the Packers may seem fine until you realize that 10 of the points came off turnovers, and that Houston generated just 197 yards of offense.

There are a couple of issues for the Texans. One is that Nico Collins is sidelined. Collins was C.J. Stroud’s go-to receiver. Without Collins, Stroud has to resort to targeting an older and unfamiliar Stefon Diggs or a hobbled Tank Dell. The latter has a very difficult matchup in this game, so it’s just going to be Diggs.

Another problem for the Texans is Bobby Slowik’s play-calling. Slowik calls far too many running plays on early downs, making his offense very predictable. This worked last year when Houston’s offensive line was mauling people, but that’s not happening this season. The Colts struggled against the run earlier in the year, but they’ve improved to eighth in that department recently.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Anthony Richardson is another second-year quarterback who didn’t perform well last week. That is most definitely an understatement, as he needed an injury to Tyler Huntley and complete incompetence by the Alec Ingold-infatuated Mike McDaniel to achieve a victory over the Dolphins.

There’s reason to believe that Richardson will play better this week. The Texans have struggled against scrambling quarterbacks all year, and this is not something new because this was also a problem last year. Richardson had his best game of the year against Houston in Week 1. Not only did he move well; he attacked the Texans effectively downfield. Houston is known to blow coverages, so Richardson could replicate his Week 1 performance.

Another potential positive for the Colts is Jonathan Taylor’s possible return. Shane Steichen said that Taylor will practice this week, so there’s a chance he could play.

RECAP: Sharp bettors slammed the Colts on Monday afternoon, taking the line down from +6.5 to +6. I was happy to see that because I’m on Indianapolis as well.

This is a horrible spot for the Texans. They’re coming off a loss, but it was a hard-fought game against the Packers. Following this game, they have to battle the Jets on a Thursday night. we’ve seen so many big favorites be flat going into a Thursday night affair. The 49ers and Seahawks lost to the Cardinals and Giants, respectively, a few weeks ago. Last week, the Rams nearly lost to the Raiders. The Texans could be the latest team to succumb to this.

Also, this is a revenge game for the Colts, who played the Texans very closely in Week 1. Richardson had his best game against Indianapolis, so perhaps he’ll be able to recapture that magic.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s been some serious sharp money on the Colts, driving this line down from +6.5 to +5. It sucks that we lost the key number of six, but I think the Colts will win this game outright.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m going to bet on Anthony Richardson’s over rushing yards because the Texans are so bad against scrambling quarterbacks. The number may come down if Jonathan Taylor is declared back into the lineup, so I’m going to wait on betting this. Update: The best number is over 36.5 rushing yards -110 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: Great news for the Colts. Jonathan Taylor will be back, and there’s a good chance DeForest Buckner will play as well. Buckner practiced fully on Thursday and rested on Friday (rested is the “R” in our NFL Week 7 Injury Report Excel. I was already bullish on the Colts without even factoring in those returns.

FINAL THOUGHTS: DeForest Buckner and Jonathan Taylor are officially active, so this is the healthiest the Colts have been in a long time. I love the Colts, and so do the sharps. In fact, I’m going to bet a unit on the moneyline. The best moneyline is +196 at Bookmaker, which is where you can find the best line (+5 -108). You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

The Texans have to play against the Jets on Thursday.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -6.5.

Computer Model: Texans -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Everyone is betting the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 82% (103,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 32 of the 44 meetings, excluding a 2022 tie.

Opening Line: Texans -6.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

MIAMI OFFENSE: It’s impossible to handicap this game as I’m writing this on Tuesday afternoon. Tua Tagovailoa has a chance to return to action this week, but that’s not a guarantee. And we don’t even know who will start if it’s not Tagovailoa. Tyler Huntley was another quarterback of ours who got hurt last week. If Huntley is sidelined, we may get Tim Boyle, who is the worst quarterback I’ve ever seen, and that’s not an exaggeration. Boyle forgot what down it was on the final drive against Indianapolis. Again, not an exaggeration.

Tagovailoa would theoretically be able to move the chains against a sorry Arizona defense, but it’s truly unclear how he’ll perform off his first game following a concussion. There’s a very checkered history of quarterbacks returning from a concussion, and it’s not like Tagovailoa will be coached well in the process. Mike “The Moron” McDaniel will likely continue to design plays for Alec Ingold while completely ignoring Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

The Dolphins should at least be able to run the ball on the Cardinals. Arizona has been poor against the run, ranking 24th in that department. I don’t know how the Cardinals kept J.K. Dobbins in check on Monday night, but I don’t think they’ll have similar success again this week, provided that McDaniel doesn’t feed the ball to Ingold too often.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Dolphins also happen to be in the bottom half of the league when it comes to stopping the run. They’re slightly better than the Cardinals, ranking 19th. However, it’s important to note the caliber of running back they’ve battled thus far. Outside of James Cook and Tony Pollard, who have gashed them, the opposing rushers have been Travis Etienne, Zach Charbonnet, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Tyler Goodson.

James Conner is better than all of them, as the Dolphins haven’t come close to facing an elite rusher yet. Conner is coming off a monster game, so I suspect that he’ll be able to pick up where he left off Monday night.

Conner’s great running will make life easier for Kyler Murray, who doesn’t have the easiest matchup. While the Dolphins have struggled against the run, they’ve been very solid against the pass. It’s not like the Cardinals have great personnel for Murray to overcome this challenging opponent.

RECAP: We have to wait on Tagovailoa’s status to properly handicap this game. As it stands now, I will be looking to bet Arizona heavily if Tagovailoa returns. I’ll be on Miami if Huntley starts. And I will be backing Arizona at a lesser amount if it’s Boyle.

Here’s the rundown:

Tagovailoa starts: There’s a long track record of quarterbacks coming off concussions struggling in their first game back to action. Many take it for granted that quarterbacks will be fine off concussions, but that hasn’t been the case. Plus, Miami players may have a letdown factor of sorts knowing that their quarterback has returned. The Dolphins weren’t even playing well with Tagovailoa to begin the year, so why would that suddenly change?

Huntley starts: I assume the Dolphins will be a home underdog. Backing quality reserve quarterbacks against mid-tier or bottom-level defenses is often a winning strategy. Plus, the Cardinals will be coming off a short work week following a win as an underdog, which is generally a terrible spot for Murray.

Boyle starts: Boyle is one of the worst quarterbacks in NFL history. He should be faded at every opportunity.

I’ll have an exact unit count once we have the news.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has risen to Miami -3.5 with the thought that Tua Tagovailoa has a better chance of returning to action. This is music to my ears because I’ll like the Cardinals even more at +3.5 if Tagovailoa is announced as the starter. PLAYER PROP: Did you see what Will Dissly did to the Cardinals on Monday night? Arizona has had issues against tight ends, so I like the Jonnu Smith over 27.5 receiving yards. The best number is over 27.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: On Thursday’s picks show (video posted below), Andy Iskoe made a great point about the Cardinals going through a very difficult schedule thus far. Despite this, they’re 3-4, and they’ve been blown out only twice. It could be argued that this is Arizona’s easiest opponent thus far except for the Rams in Week 8. Yes, Tua Tagovailoa will be back, but the Dolphins weren’t playing well with him earlier in the year. Plus, Tyreek Hill was downgraded every day in practice. He missed Friday’s practice with a foot injury, so he may not play, and even if he does, he might not be 100 percent. I love the Cardinals at +4.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tyreek Hill will play, but the Dolphins will be down a couple of defenders in Zach Sieler and Kader Kohou. I still love the Cardinals, though the sharps took Miami at -3.5. I’m going to bet the moneyline here as well, with the best number being +184 at Bookmaker, which has the best Arizona line at +4 -103. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Dolphins.

The Cardinals are coming off an upset victory on Monday night.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -3.5.

Computer Model: Dolphins -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 53% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Kyler Murray is 17-9 ATS as an underdog.

Dolphins are 32-46 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 80 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: It’s pretty wild how things can change so quickly. If I had written up this game prior to Monday night, I would have discussed how great of a matchup the Buccaneers had on this side of the ball. The Falcons have a poor group of cornerbacks outside of A.J. Terrell, and there is no pass rush to speak of, so that would have given the Buccaneers a great opportunity to move the ball with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Of course, that’s not the case anymore. Evans injured his balky hamstring while dropping a touchdown in the opening half. Given that he’ll be trying to recover off a short work week, it’s likely that he won’t be able to play in this contest. Godwin, meanwhile, could be done for the year. The Buccaneers now have cluster injuries at their top position of strength, so they’ll have to rely on Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard to attack Atlanta’s corners. That won’t work so well.

The Buccaneers will have a better chance of running the ball. Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker were very impressive against the Saints a couple of weeks ago, while Rachaad White is back from injury to serve as a receiver out of the backfield. The Falcons can’t stop the run, but they’ll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage because they won’t have to worry about Evans and Godwin beating them.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: It would be nice for the Buccaneers if their defense could carry them while both Evans and Godwin are sidelined, but we just saw Tampa Bay surrender 41 points to the Ravens, as it was completely incapable of getting off the field. Two weeks prior to that, Kirk Cousins torched the Buccaneers for 500 yards.

The Buccaneers looked pathetic trying to stop Baltimore’s aerial assault without Jamel Dean. The top cornerback landed on injured reserve, and yet he was on the field when Cousins threw for 500 yards.

Tampa Bay is much better against the run than the pass, but it won’t matter because it won’t be able to contain Cousins. The Buccaneers blitz often – fourth-highest clip in the NFL – but Cousins has handled the blitz well this year, seeing an increase in big-time throw percentage and a sharp decline in turnover-worthy plays.

RECAP: Assuming Evans is out, I’ll be on the Falcons. The Buccaneers have cluster injuries at their top position of strength, and they won’t be able to fully address the situation because they’ll be operating on short rest.

I hate that we’re getting no line value. The Buccaneers were -2.5 on the advance spread, but they’re now +2.5. I like to fade these sorts of line moves, but perhaps this is just sticker shock to me because Evans and Godwin both being sidelined warrants this sort of line shift.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As if things couldn’t get any worse for the Buccaneers, they were also missing Bucky Irving in Wednesday’s practice. This team is a complete mess right now.

PLAYER PROPS: I talked about how Kyle Pitts has quiety increased his production in recent weeks. Pitts has been on fire lately, and I think he’ll continue to be great against the Buccaneers, who can’t stop tight ends at all. The best number is over 40.5 receiving yards -113 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers have cluster injuries – not just at receiver, but also at cornerback with Jamel Dean and Tykee Smith sidelined. This seems perilous against Atlanta’s passing offense.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m not sure why, but the sharps are all over the Buccaneers. Perhaps it’s because Justin Simmons will be out for an already-poor Atlanta defense. I’m getting bad vibes here, so I’m going to zero units on the Falcons. If you still want to bet them, the best line is -1.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -2.5.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Decent lean on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 65% (103,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Falcons have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Road Team is 137-95 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 42-73 ATS at home in the previous 114 instances.

Buccaneers are 13-32 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -2.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 82 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

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I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets appeared to be on the way to an offensive explosion last week. They scored 15 points in the first quarter-and-half and were driving prior to halftime to score more when Aaron Rodgers threw a ghastly interception. The Steelers capitalized, which flipped the game completely. New York didn’t score a single point the rest of the way.

Rodgers was far from the only player who deserved blame, as Garrett Wilson sabotaged the potential victory with a dropped pass turned into an interception. All of these issues could go away in this game, however, as the Patriots have a poor secondary that hasn’t been able to cover anyone this year. Rodgers, having an extra week with Davante Adams, should be able to get going against this poor defense.

The Jets will be at their best utilizing Breece Hall. The Patriots have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, as the entire world saw last week when they couldn’t get off the field against Tank Bigsby.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Jets completely dominated the Patriots in their prior matchup. New England scored only three points while generating just 139 yards of offense. The blocking was the primary culprit, as Jacoby Brissett didn’t have a chance behind his line.

Drake Maye has been an upgrade over Brissett, though he’s made plenty of rookie mistakes. The Jets should be able to capitalize on those, assuming their injured cornerbacks are able to play. Joining them will be Haason Reddick, who has finally ended his holdout.

The only chance the Patriots have of moving the chains is establishing Rhamondre Stevenson and then having Maye scramble for big gains. The Jets have a poor run defense, but they clamped down on Stevenson back in Week 3 because they played closer to the line of scrimmage. Also, Stevenson obviously won’t be a factor if the Jets jump out to a big lead.

RECAP: The Jets would usually be a big play in a situation like this. They’re coming off four consecutive losses, including a blowout defeat in the last game. They’re 2-5. They have to win this game.

However, as the late, great Dave Cokin once said, “If a team needs to win, they’re probably not very good in the first place.” There’s something terribly wrong with the Jets. They have no chemistry, and they’re coached poorly. They also have a game coming up against the Texans in four days. Plus, they beat the Patriots already, so they may take this game for granted.

So, am I backing the Patriots? No thanks. They are utterly atrocious. Maye has made their offense better, but that’s not nearly enough. Unless they get lucky with some turnovers or special teams plays, I don’t think they can be competitive with a team that is much better than them. In fact, I’m so down on the Patriots that I’m still going to bet the Jets despite the concerns I have with them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Alijah Vera-Tucker missed Wednesday’s practice, which is not a good sign. The Jets are still just way too strong compared to the lowly Patriots.

PLAYER PROPS: Tyler Conklin destroyed the Patriots in the first meeting. With Allen Lazard banged up, Conklin may do all the work over the middle of the field against a New England team that can’t stop tight ends. The best number is over 28.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve done a 180 on this game. I don’t like seeing that Aaron Rodgers is dealing with both ankle and hamstring injuries, and I don’t like that the Jets have cluster injuries at safety with the top three players at the position all out for them. I’m going to side with the Patriots for no units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Still no interest from me here, and the sharps haven’t touched this game either. The best line is +7 -112 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

The Jets play on Thursday night, but they need a win.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -7.

Computer Model: Jets -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Plenty of action on the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 80% (92,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Patriots have won 36 of the last 44 meetings.

Aaron Rodgers is 130-92 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 39-24 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Jets -7.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Sunny, 50 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: With the election coming up, it’s important to note how the two primary candidates are handling interviews:

The only thing I would have changed was Donald Trump going, “As I was saying” after he got shot because that’s actually what happened in real life.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Saquon Barkley didn’t have his best showing against the Browns, but he rebounded extremely well against the Giants. In fact, he had the most rushing yards against a former team in NFL history.

The Eagles shouldn’t have issues establishing Barkley in this game. The Bengals have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. They weren’t exactly challenged last week versus an injured Nick Chubb, but Barkley is a completely different animal.

Besides, the Bengals won’t be able to stack the box against Barkley like they were able to do so versus Chubb. The Eagles have their dynamic downfield threats available, and given that Cincinnati has severe problems handling No. 1 receivers, it’s safe to assume that A.J. Brown is going to have another monster performance. The only way the Bengals can limit this is by pressuring Jalen Hurts, which will be possible because left tackle Jordan Mailata is sidelined.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals won’t be able to stop the Eagles, so if they are to win this game, they’ll have to do so in a shootout. This is possible, given the immense issues the Eagles have on this side of the ball.

Philadelphia hasn’t been able to cover top-end receivers all year either. Ja’Marr Chase will give them huge issues, especially because Tee Higgins is also present. The Eagles were able to limit Malik Nabers last week as a result of their pass rush hounding Daniel Jones all afternoon, but that was the result of Andrew Thomas being sidelined. The Bengals don’t have the best offensive line, but they’ll be able to protect Joe Burrow better than the Giants were able to do so for Jones.

The Eagles’ run defense isn’t great either. The Bengals figured things out with their rushers, finally giving the more-explosive Chase Brown carries over Zack Moss, so Brown should be able to pick up decent chunks of yardage.

RECAP: I live right outside of Philadelphia, so I know how the Eagles operate based on public perception. The city has some of the best sports-talk radio in the country. When everyone criticizes them, as they did last week following an underwhelming victory against the Browns, they play their best. When everyone is slurping them, they tend to let everyone down.

It’s safe to say that everyone is slurping the Eagles once again. Philadelphia just destroyed the Giants. Everyone seems to think that they’ve solved their problems. I’m not so sure though. Their defense is still a big question mark, while their pass protection is shaky with the left tackle injured. They dominated by the Giants, but that doesn’t mean they’ll play better against a team that is much better than New York.

This is a much more meaningful game for the Bengals. They’re still chasing multiple teams in the division, and they haven’t been playing well. They won’t be full of themselves like the Eagles will be after their blowout victory. And I think their passing attack will give Philadelphia’s secondary major fits.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are no major injury updates outside of Dallas Goedert missing Wednesday’s practice. I still like the Bengals quite a bit.

PLAYER PROPS: We’ve highlighted how much the Bengals struggle against No. 1 receivers. It’ll be shocking if A.J. Brown doesn’t have a big game. The best number is over 75.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: The only injury of note that we didn’t already know about is Tee Higgins being downgraded on Friday with a quad issue. If he’s ruled out, I’ll downgrade this pick a bit. I’m actually going to lower this wager to three units because it’s closer to being a 50-50 game than I initially thought.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tee Higgins is out, which is a major blow for the Bengals. I’m dropping the unit count to two. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is the standard -2.5 -110 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.

The Eagles are coming off a blowout win against the rival Giants.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -3.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

The Eagles are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 70% (128,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Nick Sirianni is 2-6 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Joe Burrow is 39-19 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-6 ATS otherwise).

Opening Line: Bengals -3.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Sunny, 56 degrees. Light wind.