NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2024 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
2024 NFL Picks: 55-60-4 (-$3,720)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
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Go to Week 8 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills got off to a sluggish start last week, trailing 10-0 against the woeful Titans. There understandably wasn’t much chemistry between Josh Allen and Amari Cooper. The two eventually connected for a touchdown, and Cooper’s presence helped open things up for Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman, resulting in a blowout win.

The Seahawks have a much worse defense than the Titans, with the two stop units ranking 30th and 10th, respectively. Seattle struggles in multiple departments, two of which happen to be defending No. 1 receivers and tight ends. Thanks to the Cooper trade, the Bills have someone who truly fits the former category. Dalton Kincaid can obviously take advantage of the latter.

Additionally, Seattle is very poor at stopping the run. Jordan Mason looked like he was going to rush for 150 yards against them before getting hurt right before halftime two weeks ago. The Bills have recently discovered a running game with Ray Davis. He could be worked into the mix with James Cook, as both figure to thrive.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks had a blowout victory over the Falcons, but the dark cloud over the win happened to be D.K. Metcalf’s injury. Fortunately for the Seahawks, Metcalf is not out for the year, or anything, but he is considered week to week. This means he’s probably a long shot to play in this game.

Metcalf was such a huge threat in Seattle’s passing game. The Seahawks still have Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett, but a big reason those guys have been so productive is Metcalf’s presence. The Bills have some talented cornerbacks who can lock down the two lesser Seattle wideouts.

The best hope for the Seahawks is establishing Kenneth Walker. There was some worry about Walker’s availability last week due to an illness, but he played well against the Falcons. This is a tougher matchup than most anticipate as far Walker’s running is concerned. However, the Bills are very weak to pass-catching backs, and Walker’s role has expanded into that realm this year.

RECAP: I’m rather neutral on this game. Buffalo being favored by three makes sense, and I think a case can be made against both teams. The Seahawks are coming off a blowout win, but they had an Atlanta squad that was looking ahead to its battle against the Buccaneers. Now, they’ll have to continue their momentum without their top receiver. The Seahawks are not nearly as good as they looked against the Falcons. They were utterly demolished by the 49ers the prior week, after all.

As far as the Bills are concerned, they still need time to gel with Cooper on the team. They won with Cooper last week, but they were not battling a competitive team. The Seahawks are capable of beating Buffalo, despite what I wrote in the prior paragraph.

I don’t plan on betting this game unless there are some surprise injuries that make one of the sides appealing.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Two injury updates for the Seahawks. D.K. Metcalf will miss practice Wednesday and Thursday, but he’ll test out his injury on Friday to see if he can go. Meanwhile, top cornerback Tariq Woolen returned to practice on a limited basis, so perhaps he’ll return to action this week.

PLAYER PROPS: Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop seems too low. It’s 40.5, and he’s gone over that number in four of the previous five games. We bet Kyle Pitts last week successfully against Seattle’s defense, and we’ll be doing the same with Kincaid. The best number is over 40.5 -112 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills won’t have Terrel Bernard, while the Seahawks won’t have D.K. Metcalf. There’s good news for Seattle though, as Tariq Woolen will return, while George Fant has a good chance to play. Tre Brown may return as well. I’m tempted to move to Seattle, but I’m going to stick with my pick.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: No change in opinion here, and the sharps haven’t touched this one either.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No D.K. Metcalf, as expected. The sharps have not touched this game. The best line is Buffalo -3 -107 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -3.

Computer Model: Bills -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Increasing money on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 70% (109,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahakws.

Seahawks are 21-8 ATS as home underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Bills -3.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Rain, 55 degrees. Mild/heavy wind, 15 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers were so sluggish offensively against the Cardinals. It was an easy matchup, yet they were so slow to move the ball. This was the result of relying on non-talents like Simi Fehoko and Will Dissly. This team is in dire need of receiving talent.

Luckily for Justin Herbert, he’ll have another easy matchup, so he’ll be able to rebound. The Saints lost both starting cornerbacks to injury last Thursday. If at least one is out, New Orleans will have a very difficult time defending the pass because the team already was dreadful at defending slot receivers and tight ends. Ladd McConkey should have an excellent game.

The Saints have other liabilities beyond not being able to stop these positions. They are also awful against the run. In consecutive weeks, players named Sean Tucker and Javonte Williams mercilessly trampled them. J.K. Dobbins has to be licking his chops.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Charger defense also has to be licking its chops. That’s because they’ll be matched up against Spencer Rattler. The Silver Snake has some natural ability, but the game is way too fast for him right now. He makes way too many mistakes, which will kill him against the Chargers.

Rattler won’t even have much of a chance in the pocket. His offensive line is ravaged by injury, which is very problematic against a pass rush featuring Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. The Silver Snake will be looking like a Purple Parrot after this game.

Rattler won’t be able to lean on Alvin Kamara in all likelihood either. It was a surprise that the Chargers couldn’t contain James Conner on Monday night because they had done a great job against the run until then. They were second against the run heading into Monday, so I suspect that they’ll get back to their run-stopping ways, especially given that they’ll be able to focus on Kamara.

RECAP: The Chargers are in a tough scheduling spot. They’re coming off a Monday night game, and they’ll be battling a team that played on Thursday. Teams in this situation cover at about a 39-percent rate, so if you want to bet a team in this sort of a situation, you’ll need a great reason to do so.

Well, we might have a good reason. The Saints have a backup quarterback going against one of the best defenses in the NFL. This is an automatic fade. New Orleans also has so many key personnel out of the lineup, so it’s not like they can rally around and play at 110-percent capacity for their backup quarterback. This team is just broken right now.

I’ll be on the Chargers for a medium-sized play. I worry about the fatigue factor, though I should note that big favorites (-7.5+) are 4-2-1 ATS in the situation I detailed earlier.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Don’t look now, but the Saints may get several of their injured players back in action this week, as Cesar Ruiz, Lucas Patrick, Pete Werner, Chris Olave, and Taysom could all be returning to action. Suddenly, the Chargers don’t look so appealing. I’m going down to zero units.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Saints will be getting back all the players mentioned above. Meanwhile, the Chargers could have cluster injuries at receiver with Quentin Johnston out and Ladd McConkey very shaky to play. Joey Bosa could be back, but Denzel Perryman may miss this game. This is another game where I considered switching sides, but I don’t want to back a reserve quarterback against the NFL’s No. 7 defense.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The Chargers called up two receivers, so that doesn’t seem like good news for Ladd McConkey. I don’t want either side in this game.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m going to bet Taysom Hill to score an anytime touchdown. He’ll be doing a lot of the work in this game. You can get a 30-percent profit boost on FanDuel for an anytime touchdown. This $50 bet pays $210. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both teams are healthier than expected. The Chargers will have Joey Bosa and Ladd McConkey on the field, but will they be operating at 100 percent? I still like the Chargers, but I won’t be betting this game. There is sharp money on the Saints. The best line is a clean -7 -110 at FanDuel and DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -6.

Computer Model: Chargers -6.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 57% (88,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Chargers are 21-30 ATS in San Angeles.

Opening Line: Chargers -7.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Jayden Daniels barely played last week before being pulled due to a rib injury. He threw just two passes before exiting. Everyone said he was OK, but the coaching staff called him “week to week.” If that diagnosis is true, then it seems unlikely that Daniels will be able to play in this game.

Marcus Mariota did a terrific job stepping in for Daniels last week, but it must be noted that he did so against the sorry Panthers. Carolina has the worst defense anyone has ever seen on a professional level, so it can’t be shocking that Mariota misfired just five times last week. Mariota’s matchup will be much tougher this time. While the Panthers are dead last in pressure rate, the Bears generate pressure at the sixth-highest clip in the league. The Redskins have offensive line issues, so Mariota will be rattled, and Kliff Kingsbury will miss Daniels’ mobility.

The Bears aren’t as strong against the run. The Redskins might have some success with Brian Robinson, but Chicago might be able to stack the box because it won’t be afraid of Mariota’s passing ability.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: While the Bears are weak to the run, the Redskins might be even worse in that department. I say “might” because the Redskins have held huge leads against bad teams who haven’t been able to expose their ground defense. The Bears should be able to with D’Andre Swift, who has been much better in recent weeks after a horrendous start to the season.

Swift’s running and receiving will make things much easier for Caleb Williams. The one good thing the Redskins do on this side of the ball is generate pressure on the quarterback. Again, this might be a byproduct of having a massive lead all the time, so I suspect Williams won’t be hounded too often. Plus, he can use his mobility to escape from any pass rushers.

Assuming Williams has time to throw, the Bears should be able to move the chains consistently. The Redskins have some major problems in the secondary, which will be exposed against Chicago’s very talented receiving corps.

RECAP: In my previous capsule, I wrote that backup quarterbacks against great defenses are an automatic fade. That applies to this game if Daniels is sidelined. Mariota played well against the Panthers, but I feel like anyone, even Tim Boyle, could do well against a Carolina defense that might be the worst unit we’ve ever seen. This is a much tougher challenge for Mariota, who goes from battling the No. 32 defense to a unit that’s been in the top 10 for most of the season.

I’ll be on the Bears if Daniels is sidelined. If Daniels is able to play, I may switch to Washington, though I’ll stick with the Bears if I get the sense that Daniels plans on playing injured. I’ll naturally have updates later in the week to determine how exactly I’ll be betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Jayden Daniels in Wednesday’s practice. At this point, it would be a shocker if Marcus Mariota didn’t start, which means the Bears are the play.

PLAYER PROPS: I don’t see a prop I like here. The Bears are often poor against running backs, but they’ll be able to stack the box with Jayden Daniels sidelined.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jayden Daniels hasn’t been ruled out yet, but he was DNP-DNP-limited in practice, prompting the line to move to Chicago -3. I’m still leaning toward the Bears, but don’t plan on betting the game, especially now that the line is up to a field goal.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: This line has moved to Washington -1, and the total has risen three points. It looks like Jayden Daniels has a legitimate chance to play. If he does, I’ll have interest in the Bears in fading an injured quarterback.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jayden Daniels will play without his left tackle. Didn’t another Redskin quarterback once return from injury too early? I like fading banged-up quarterbacks, so I’m going to bet a unit on Chicago. The sharps were on Chicago earlier in the week. The best line is +1.5 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -2.5.

Computer Model: Bears -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Jayden Daniels may play after all.

Percentage of money on Washington: 68% (108,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bears -1.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Sunny, 60 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It’s amazing that the Chiefs keep on winning despite losing offensive play-makers every single week. They were even able to establish JuJu Smith-Schuster a few weeks ago against the Saints, and yet he suffered an injury last week. He won’t be available for this contest.

I suspect that Mahomes will lean heavily on his rushing attack. And why not? The Raiders are in the bottom half of the NFL when it comes to stopping the run, so Hunt should do well.

Hunt should allow Mahomes to have easier passing situations. He’ll want to connect mostly to his tight ends, but the Raiders have defended tight ends well this year, so something will have to give.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raider defense allowed 20 points according to the scoreboard last week, but the real number was zero because all 20 of the Rams’ points came via Gardner Minshew turnovers. Minshew was a complete mess, throwing interceptions at almost every opportunity until late in the game.

Minshew didn’t even have a difficult matchup last week. This one will be much tougher. The Rams have a middling pass rush, while the Chiefs own the league’s fifth-highest pressure rate. Minshew self-destructs when pressured heavily, and he’ll certainly see plenty of heat in this contest.

Minshew won’t be able to lean on his rushing attack either because Kansas City is stout against the run. There is some hope, however, given that the Chiefs are very weak to tight ends. Brock Bowers could have a strong performance as a result, though there’s a chance Steve Spagnuolo will attempt to double team him, which will be possible if Jakobi Meyers doesn’t return to action.

RECAP: I’ll be shocked if we get Kansas City’s best effort in this game. The Chiefs are coming off a huge win against the 49ers in their Super Bowl rematch. After this game against the pathetic Raiders, they have to play on Monday Night Football.

The Chiefs are akin to a cat playing with its food. We’ll see nonsense from them in this game as they experiment with some plays and formations. And yet, they still may cover because the Raiders are that bad. I’d maybe have some interest in them if O’Connell were starting, but Minshew is a turnover machine. I’ve written repeatedly that backup quarterbacks should be aggressively faded versus elite defenses, and that applies in this game.

If you were to tell me that the Chiefs would try their hardest in this game, I’d bet them heavily. However, I just don’t think we’ll see them playing their hardest, though it’s possible that the Raiders will have their attention after beating them on Christmas last year. I’m fine with two or three units on Kansas City, but nothing more.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Evan Daniel of Tuesday’s picks show pointed out to me that the Chiefs may have motivation in this game. The Raiders made fun of Patrick Mahomes using a Kermit the Frog puppet to make fun of Mahomes. When asked about it, Mahomes said that he would take care of it in due time. The Chiefs look much better knowing that. Plus, the DeAndre Hopkins trade helps.

PLAYER PROPS: The Chiefs are one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending tight ends, but the fear I have with backing Brock Bowers is that Steve Spagnulo will double team him. Spagnulo is infamous for double teaming the opponent’s top player. If Davante Adams were still on the team, I’d love Bowers in this spot, but I can’t back him. I won’t have a prop bet for this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Maxx Crosby will play, while Jakobi Meyers has a shot to return this week after a full practice on Friday. Dylan Parham is out, however. The Chiefs still look good.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The sharps have taken the Raiders from +10 to +8.5. I still like the Chiefs.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned earlier, the sharps bet the Raiders from +10 to +8.5, but some money has come back on Kansas City at -8.5. The best line is -9 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Chiefs may relax in this game unless they have Christmas revenge on their mind.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -10.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -10.

Computer Model: Chiefs -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 88% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

History: Chiefs have won 16 of the last 19 meetings.

Patrick Mahomes is 90-24 SU, 63-49 ATS (49-36 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 6-10 ATS as a road favorite of 7+.

Raiders are 19-13 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.

Opening Line: Chiefs -10.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

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DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos scored 33 points against the Saints, and yet Bo Nix didn’t perform well. He missed open receivers and was fortunate to have some interceptions that were dropped. He was bailed out by Javonte Williams and the offensive line.

It’ll be difficult for Nix to struggle in this game because the Panthers might have the worst defense we’ve ever seen. I find this amazing: Carolina ranks dead last in pressure rate, yet it blitzes at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL. So, the Panthers bring extra pass rushers at a top-10 rate in the NFL, and yet they still can’t get to the quarterback. That’s beyond inept. Nix will have all the time in the world to find his receivers.

Nix may not even have to throw all that much. Williams should be able to pick up where he left off against New Orleans. The Panthers can’t stop the run at all, so Williams will have a massive showing.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers have been at least able to move the ball ever since they went to Andy Dalton. The Red Rifle was terrific in his first start, but has progressively gotten worse. He’s had some head-scratching interceptions recently, so if he’s going to throw those, Carolina might as well go back to Bryce Young.

Dalton won’t have much success in this matchup. The Broncos pressure the quarterback at the third-highest rate in the NFL, and Carolina’s offensive line has not been the same since Taylor Moton and Austin Corbett went down with injuries. Denver also has Patrick Surtain II to erase Diontae Johnson.

It would be nice for Dalton if he could hand the ball off to Chuba Hubbard reliably, but that won’t even be possible. Denver is also excellent against the run. The only area in which the Broncos struggle on this side of the ball is defending tight ends, but it’s not like the Panthers are strong in that area.

RECAP: Everything screams that the Panthers should be a huge play. I like the idea of fading the Broncos off a blowout win on national TV. I like the idea of betting the Panthers coming off an embarrassing defeat against Marcus Mariota. I like the idea of getting more than a touchdown against a team that is very overrated. I like the idea of obtaining great line value because the advance spread was +4.5. I like the idea of going against a Denver team that could be looking ahead to its battle against Baltimore next week.

And yet, I can’t do it. I just can’t do it. The Panthers are historically terrible. They might have the worst defense in NFL history, while their offense could be just as bad if the team goes back to Young.

I can’t even side with the Panthers for office pool purposes. That’s how bad they are. I wish the Broncos were in a better spot so we could fade Carolina.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Andy Dalton got into a car accident. Luckily, he’s OK, but that means Bryce Young will start. Young’s performance in this game may feel like a car accident. I’m going to bet the Broncos.

PLAYER PROPS: Courtland Sutton had a doughnut in his last game. There could be a squeaky-wheel narrative in this game, and the matchup lines up with that. The Panthers are atrocious to No. 1 receivers. The best number on Sutton is over 43.5 receiving yards -110 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: As if Bryce Young starting this game was bad enough, the Panthers won’t have Diontae Johnson either. Carolina may get Josey Jewell and Taylor Moton back from injury, but this team seems to be too far gone to be competitive.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The Broncos still seem like a great play. The Panthers have some injury questions, which will make the inactives list interesting.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Panthers will have Taylor Moton and Josey Jewell back, but they’re still in very rough shape. There’s some sharp action coming in on Denver. The best line is -12.5 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

Sandwich situation. The Broncos are coming off a blowout win on national TV. Next week, they play Baltimore.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -4.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Denver: 77% (101,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Broncos -7.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Chance of rain, 75 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: This game is currently difficult to handicap because we have no idea who will be available for the 49ers. San Francisco has suffered a slew of injuries against the Chiefs. The worst one was Brandon Aiyuk’s torn ACL, so we know he won’t be available. Deebo Samuel had fluid in his lungs, while George Kittle had an issue with his ankle. Jauan Jennings was already sidelined.

The 49ers have an easy matchup against the Cowboys if they can have most of their non-Aiyuk weapons available. The Cowboys have no pass rush as a result of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence being injured, so Purdy will have plenty of time in the pocket to locate his threats. Dallas’ secondary also has injuries.

The best way the 49ers will move the ball is via Jordan Mason. Christian McCaffrey is due back after the bye, so Mason will have one final great performance. The Cowboys have one of the worst ground defenses in the NFL, so they won’t be able to contain Mason.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The defensive issues aren’t the only problem the Cowboys have. Their offense has its troubles, too, and San Francisco will almost certainly be able to exploit them.

The 49ers have a quality pass rush led by Nick Bosa. The Cowboys’ offensive line can’t pass protect like it did last year, given that rookie Tyler Guyton has been a human turnstile. Bosa has a very easy matchup here to rattle Dak Prescott, who won’t be able to lean on his ground attack because the 49ers also shut down the run well.

Prescott, of course, will try to connect with CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, but the 49ers thrive against slot receivers and tight ends. They are weaker to No. 2 receivers and pass-catching running backs. This means Jalen Tolbert and Rico Dowdle will have to play at their best for Dallas to have a chance at an upset.

RECAP: I’m going to be on the 49ers, but the unit count will depend on how many of their play-makers are available. We already know that McCaffrey and Aiyuk won’t be able to play. Samuel got knocked out of last week’s game because of fluid in his lungs, so we’ll see if he’s available. Kittle and Jennings may not be ready to return either.

If most of these hobbled players are cleared to play, I’ll bet heavily on the 49ers. They’re going to be in a great spot off a blowout loss to the Chiefs, and they’ll be taking on a team they routinely dominate. The Cowboys are not a good team at all; in fact, they’re close to being a bottom-10 team in net adjusted EPA. They most recently were demolished against the Lions, and the 49ers could treat them similarly.

Conversely, if the 49ers are missing most of Purdy’s weaponry, I probably won’t bet this game. Backing the Cowboys won’t be very appealing, but laying -4.5 with an injury-ravaged San Francisco team won’t seem great either.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have been all over the Cowboys. It’s easy to see why. Deebo samuel, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings were all out of Wednesday’s practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: Micah Parsons said he’d play, but he’s been ruled out. That surely deflates some hope from the sharps who were on Dallas. The 49ers, meanwhile, have some injury question marks. Jauan Jennings is out, but both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are questionable after being DNP-limited-limited during the week. We’ll have to wait until 90 minutes prior to kickoff to know who’s playing.

PLAYER PROPS: Sorry, but there won’t be a same-game parlay for this matchup because there are so many injury question marks. We’ll know who will play by 7 p.m., but we won’t know if they will be 100 percent. I do like the Anders Carlson over 1.5 field goals because the 49ers have one of the worst red zone offenses in the NFL. The best number is 1.5 field goals made -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The sharps were on Dallas earlier in the week, but some pro money has come back in on San Francisco recently.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We were wondering if the 49ers skill players would play, and they both will. George Kittle and Deebo Samuel will be in action. In an odd turn of events, the Cowboys will be missing a skill player of theirs with Rico Dowdle ruled out due to a sudden illness. The sharps have been on both sides. I’m going to bet the 49ers for two units. The best line is -5.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The 49ers are coming off a blowout loss to the Chiefs.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 55% (163,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Mike McCarthy is 13-3 ATS off a bye.

49ers are 43-32 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 64 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Poopsburgh, where tonight, the New York Stupid Giants take on the Poopsburgh Poopers! I’m sorry for cursing Mother, but I mean business here! Poopsburgh is the crappiest city in Pennsylvania, especially when compared to my great city of Philadelphia, and the Giants hurt your soul because they are stupid and terrible compared to my Philadelphia Eagles, SO THE TIME HAS COME FOR ME TO DESTROY BOTH TEAMS ON THE FIELD! WHAT SAY YOU, GUYS!? ARE YOU WITH ME! TO BATTLE!!!

Emmitt: Thanks, Palom. You say that the Giant sold your sold. That is how I feel against the Giant. He always losted to me when I was the quarterback of the Cowboy. He always easy to run against and I always say to him that he so embarrassment that his mother probably going to disbone him.

Reilly: Emmitt, I’m glad you’re in agreement that these teams need to be destroyed. I also agree that it’s scary at the thought of Mother disboning me. I always think she might do it if I score poorly on her pop quiz in home school class, or if I spill apple juice again during lunch.

Tollefson: Reilly, you are such a wuss. If just had but a single female slave, you wouldn’t have to worry about any apple juice spills. When I spill my apple juice during your mother’s online Zoom classes, I have my naked female slaves clean it up for me, pronto. If they don’t get to it in a hurry, I’ll put them in a body bag!

Reilly: Tolly, Mother would never let a woman clean things up for me unless it’s Mother herself because she says that other women would try to corrupt her delicate little flower who has yet to blossom at the age of 73. Speaking of women who can’t touch me, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. Just got word that there will be a hurricane that will delay the start of this game by 30 minutes. It may seem sunny now, but the hurricane is coming, believe me. I’m joined tonight by Joe Biden. I thought I was going to be interviewing foreign leaders, but we have our domestic leader here now! President Biden, what brings you to the stadium tonight?

Joe Biden: Hi, I’m George Biden and I’m running for the- you know- the thing- I just want some NFL games, man. The other guy is trying to make it so there are no other games. We don’t want games. I mean, we do want games. Games are fun, especially when you play- the uhh- games. The other guy doesn’t want fun. You know, fun is the thing you do when you watch games. Take little Sally there. She has fun playing games. And I’m going to have fun with Ashley in the shower. I mean, I tripped my dog in the shower. The dog got the injury. And I’m cleaning up spaghetti sauce on aisle four, heh heh heh.

Charissa Thompson: I wasn’t paying attention, but if you’re going to the grocery store, please buy some spaghetti sauce for me, and I’ll pay you back. You can trust me. But President Biden, I’m confused as to why you’re vying for NFL games when NFL games are already in America.

Joe Biden: The games are here, but they’re here. They’re the games, man. And the other guy doesn’t like games. But we’re not the other guy. If the other guy doesn’t like games, then we’ll games the other guy. I mean we beat the other guy. That’s what we’ll do. Reminds me of when I was a lifeguard by the pool, and I said, “Esther, wear a swimming cap,” and Esther wouldn’t and he challenge me to a duel, and the guy running the pool, he was a roach just like Esther, he told me to grab a chain and meet Esther in the parking lot, and Esther was surrounded by Toucan Sam and Chef Boyardee. He was running with some mean guys. I said, “I apologize,” and he said, “You apologize?” And I said, “I apologize,” and the gates were backward back then, back when they’d kick your teeth to the curb. I lost my teeth a long time ago, back when I was running for the thing- you know- the thing- and then there was ice cream. I said I’ll take a double scoop of choco choco chip from the clown holding the ice cream. I gave my money to the clown, and I came back with a piece of toast. And that’s better than what the other guy came back with.

Reilly: Hey President Bident, what you said makes a lot of sense. We need to stop the other guy. And the other guy is Daniel Jones. We need to put him on death row even if there’s proof of his innocence, and we need to use him as slave labor to clean up forest fires. President Camel Toe, you have experience doing this, right?

Kamala Harris: In the last four years, I have been the vice president of the United States. And Trump has been running for the last four years after he was president. When you take my four years as president, and Trump’s four years as running for president, you get four years, and four years. And four years and four years is equal because it’s the same number of years. Because when you have four, and you also have four, you have four, and four, which is the same because four is four.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, is pretending to be comparing numbers, because all she can do is compare because, frankly, she doesn’t know any numbers, not even one, two, or three, but Trump knows all the numbers, he can count to 10, believe me, no one knows the numbers like Trump, especially Kamala, who doesn’t know any numbers, but she should know a number, and that number is zero, even though it’s an absence of a number, but Kamala should know zero because not only is she a total zero, but she also had zero delegates before she stole the nomination from Sleepy Joe, who sounded extra sleepy today, but way sharper than Kamala, who is a total zero and a total disgrace.

Wolfley: DONALD, IF YOU WANTED A BETTER INSULT, YOU COULD HAVE CALLED KAMALA AN IMAGINARY NUMBER. MY FRIEND, A FOAM NOODLE WITH EARS FOR BRAINS, IS IMAGINARY.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! It’s time for battle. I’ve got my water gun and rocket launcher to destroy both Daniel Jones and the soul-sucking Giants, and the Poopsburgh Steelers. New Daddy, let’s go to war!

Jay Cutler: Hold on, I’m going to take a three-hour nap.

Reilly: No, New Daddy, the game will be over by then! We need to make these guys pay with the rocket launcher I bought with my allowance!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about weapons of war, Kevin. You mentioned rocket launchers, Kevin. What a great start, Kevin. How about grenades, Kevin? Let’s move on to tanks, Kevin. What do you think about bayonets, Kevin? Care to share about chemical weapons, Kevin? And by chemical weapons, I also mean your farts, Kevin, which-

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I’M GOING TO DESTROY YOU WITH MY FARTS AND ROCKET LAUNCHER AFTER I’M DONE WITH DANIEL JONES AND POOPSBURGH! We’ll be back after this!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I’m not sure what to make of Russell Wilson. The long-time Seahawk began the Sunday night game slowly, but caught fire as the evening progressed. By the end, he was torching the Jets mercilessly with his contested moon balls to George Pickens.

Given that Wilson was woeful for two years under different coaches in Denver, there’s a good chance that this was all a fluke. The Jets were missing multiple cornerbacks even before Sauce Gardner got knocked out with an injury. Gardner returned, but may not have been 100 percent. The Giants are capable of playing better against aerial attacks, thanks mostly to their talented pass rush. The Jets couldn’t get to Wilson, but I have to believe the Giants will be able to do so, given that the Steelers are down three offensive linemen.

I don’t expect much out of Najee Harris either. Harris did well against the Jets, who routinely struggle against the rush. The Giants can play the run better despite what we saw out of Saquon Barkley in last week’s revenge game.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Both pass rushes will be live in this game. The Steelers actually don’t have a great pressure rate (20th) despite T.J. Watt’s presence, but the Giants’ offensive line took a big hit with Andrew Thomas being lost for the year. It’s safe to say that Watt will win his matchup and pressure Jones heavily. This is not good news for Jones, who took eight sacks last week.

Thomas’ absence really hurts the Giants offense. When Thomas was protecting Jones’ blind side, Jones had enough time in the pocket to find Malik Nabers deep downfield. That’s not the case any longer, which is why Nabers’ stats were suppressed for the first time all year last week. The Steelers have allowed some big games to opposing WR1s, however.

The Giants don’t have a strong running game either. Tyrone Tracy has shown some big-play ability, but Thomas’ injury has ruined this area for New York as well.

RECAP: When I saw the advance spread on this game, I thought it was way too high. Pittsburgh was -4, but I made the line -1. I considered the Steelers and Giants to be ranked evenly. I give teams one point for being at home in most cases, so that’s how I got to -1. If I was correct, that would have given us great value with the Giants.

Now, we’re getting even better value. Because the Giants were blown out against the Eagles, and because the Steelers crushed the Jets on national TV, this line went up 2.5 points through the key number of six.

I know that the Giants are worse with Thomas sidelined, and Pittsburgh might be better with Wilson. I’ve adjusted my numbers, but I’m still shy of the line. My projected spread is now Pittsburgh -3.5 The EPA figures say this line should be -1.

The Giants look great in this spot. They were humiliated, so they’ll be playing their best. Conversely, the Steelers have been a great fade under Tomlin after blowout defeats. Following wins of 14-plus, Tomlin’s teams have been 15-27 against the spread as favorites the following week. Tomlin is often a poor bet to win by margin as a large favorite anyway.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no practice report yet, so I don’t really have anything new to say about this game. The sharps haven’t weighed in on this game yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: Brian Burns was downgraded in Friday’s practice, which is not good news. We’ll have to see his status on Saturday evening.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The sharps took the Giants down from +6.5 to +6. Unfortunately Jermaine Eluemunor may not play in this game, which would take down my unit count to two.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: We’re still awaiting the Jermaine Eluemunor injury update. It may seem silly to wait for him, but if he doesn’t play, the Giants will have cluster injuries on their offensive line against T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward. I won’t be betting the Giants if he’s out, but if he plays, I’ll certainly have plenty of interest.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Giants allow lots of receiving yardage to running backs. Jaylen Warren is the Steelers’ receiving back, so I like him to go over 12.5 -120, which you can find at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

We’re going to toss in the Warren receiving yards prop on FanDuel. The yardage is 13.5, but we’re using FanDuel because they have a 30-percent odds boost. The other legs in the parlay are the overs on the two tight ends (Pat Freiermuth, 27.5; Theo Johnson 12.5) because it’s still National Tight End Day. I also like Wan’Dale Robinson over 4.5 receptions because the leaky Giants offensive line will force Daniel Jones to throw short. This $25 parlay pays $311.07 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jermaine Eluemunor is active, so we can bet the Giants. I’m going to be on them for three units. The sharps took New York at +6.5, but not at anything less than that. The best line is +6 -105 available at Caesars and DraftKings. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Giants.

Steelers coming off a blowout win in prime time. Giants coming off a blowout loss.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -4.

Computer Model: Steelers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Why would anyone bet the Giants after what they just saw?

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 84% (228,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Steelers are 13-6 ATS at home on Monday Night Football the previous 19 instances.

Russell Wilson is 25-19 ATS in night games.

Opening Line: Steeers -6.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 58 degrees. Light wind.