NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2024 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
2024 NFL Picks: 49-51-4 (-$3,060)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

Week 6 Analysis: I’ve come to the realization that I need to stop betting bad teams unless they’re playing against each other. The Patriots, Panthers, and Raiders stood out to me as great plays in Week 6 because of some matchups and motivational angles, but all three self-destructed with penalties and other dumb mistakes. I was ready to complain about this and attribute it to more bad luck, but I realized that this is what bad teams do. Bad teams make lots of mistakes. I spent some time looking back at my picks, and I truly do have an awful track record picking these bad teams (unless they’re playing against each other), whereas I have a winning record otherwise. So, from here on out, I’m going to ignore the five or six worst teams in my NFL Power Rankings and/or EPA ratings unless they’re playing against each other.

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

49ers, 3 units (win): A great way to start the week. We would have hit our same-game parlay had Jordan Mason not gotten injured.

Patriots, 4 units (loss): Horrible penalties and unlucky turnovers did in the Patriots. Again, I’m not betting on crap like this again unless they’re playing other crap.

Raiders, 3 units (loss): The Raiders had penalties to negate a touchdown, an interception, a sack to force a punt, and a big third-down conversion. I shouldn’t have expected anything otherwise.

Panthers, 5 units (loss): The Panthers (+6) were up 10-7, then trailed 22-17 at halftime and 28-20 after three quarters. They were driving down 28-20 in the fourth quarter to potentially tie, but Andy Dalton threw one of the worst interceptions you’ll ever see. It was all Atlanta after that. Of all the crappy teams we bet in Week 6, the Panthers had the best chance, and yet they ultimately lost 38-20.

Lions, 5 units (win): I submitted this early, and it was an easy winner.

Bengals, 4 units (win): We’ve had bad luck all year, but this was a very lucky victory. Not only did the Bengals score a touchdown late to cover, we also got an extra drive where Darius Slayton went over his receiving yardage prop. Can we get lucky in a second game?

Jets, 8 units (loss): The answer is no. The Jets outgained the Bills in total yards and yards per play, but one of the best kickers in the NFL missed from 32 and 43, and the Jets racked up 110 yards’ worth of penalties, including one infraction that negated a touchdown. Garrett Wilson also dropped a touchdown. Had the two kicks just gone through, we would have covered with the Jets winning 26-20 or losing 27-26. I don’t know what I did to deserve this horrible luck, but it’s been killing us since the beginning of last season. If anyone has any ideas on how to reverse my fortune, please let me know!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Many expected Spencer “The Silver Snake” Rattler to fail in his first start. He performed well in the opening half before collapsing toward the end of the game. Still, considering the state of his offensive line, as well as the absence of the concussed Chris Olave, the Silver Snake handled himself well, or at least much better than a Purple Parrot would have done so.

Unfortunately for Rattler, his matchup will be much more difficult in this game. Rattler had the luxury of battling a Tampa Bay defense ranked in the middle of the pack. The Broncos are third. They generate pressure at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, which is very worrisome for Rattler, given his atrocious blocking. Rattler will also face a constant blitz from Vance Joseph, which could cause problems for him. The one positive here for the rookie is that Patrick Surtain II figures to be sidelined with a concussion, but that’s a wash with Olave’s concussion.

Rattler would love to lean on Alvin Kamara, but that won’t be possible. The Broncos are worse against the run than they are versus the pass, but they still have a mid-tier ground defense. Kamara’s blocking is putrid, so he won’t accomplish much as a rusher.

DENVER OFFENSE: You’d figure the Saints would show up defensively for Rattler last week, but that didn’t happen. Instead, New Orleans allowed Tampa Bay to put up 51 on the scoreboard. Now, now, I know that’s unfair and misleading. The Buccaneers scored on a fumble return touchdown, after all. So, they really scored just 44 points.

The Saints have some glaring weaknesses, particularly when it comes to defending the middle of the field. They are horrid against slot receivers and tight ends, and they are also dead last against the run. The Buccaneers exploited all three areas with Chris Godwin, Cade Otton, and the two backup running backs.

The Broncos don’t project to be as successful. Their slot receiver is either Lil’Jordan Humphrey or DeVaughn Vele. The latter has had some quality PPR fantasy performances, but I don’t think he can be counted on to dominate a matchup. The Broncos also don’t have a functional tight end. Perhaps they’ll be able to run with Javonte Williams, but it’s not like this is a proven formula. Williams fumbled last week, so he could be benched.

RECAP: I’ve discussed backup quarterback handicapping at length this season, but I’ll mention the rule again: Backup-caliber quarterbacks tend to cover at a much higher rate than expected when they play against mediocre or bad defenses. Conversely, they have an abysmal cover rate against top-12 NFL defenses.

The Broncos don’t just have a top-12 defense; they’re ranked No. 3. Joseph will confuse Rattler with his constant blitzes, and Rattler will look like a fifth-round rookie as a consequence.

I’d like Denver in this game just for that aspect, but there are other reasons to bet them. The Saints have a dreadful defense ranked 25th in net EPA, while their offensive line is in shambles. The Broncos aren’t a great team by any means, but they should be able to dismantle the collapsing Saints on a short work week. I’m not in love with betting Denver as a favorite, but this is worth a two-unit wager.

Our Week 7 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Saints are in rough shape. They’ve already been dealing with so many injuries on the offensive line. Now, they’ll also be without Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Pete Werner. The Broncos, meanwhile, won’t have Patrick Surtain, but they might be getting back Mike McGlinchey and/or Baron Browning. It’s no surprise the sharps have been all over the Broncos. I’m going to lock this in before all the -2.5s disappear. The best line is -2.5 -115 at BetMGM and FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m betting two player props today. One is the Spencer Rattler under 186.5 passing yards. Everyone is excited about Rattler, but the great Broncos defense has tape on him, so he figures to struggle, especially without his top two receivers. The best number is under 186.5 -115 at BetMGM.

I’m also going to bet DeVaughn Vele over receiving yards. Vele is Denver’s new slot receiver, and the Saints allow a ton of production to the slot. Just think about what JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chris Godwin did to the Saints in recent weeks. The best number is over 31.5 -110 at FanDuel.

I’m going to toss in the two player prop bets into the same-game parlay. We’re getting a slightly worse number on Rattler, but keep in mind that FanDuel has a 30-percent same-game parlay boost. My parlay will be Rattler under 183.5 receiving yards, Vele over 31.5 receiving yards, Juwan Johnson over 29.5 receiving yards, and Lucas Krull over 10.5 receiving yards. Both tight ends look great tonight because both defenses are terrible at defending the position. With the 30-percent profit boost, this $25 parlay pays $432.24. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Before I get to the final thoughts, I’d like to point out that we have a new pick ’em contest. It’s free entry with cash prizes, but only available to premium subscribers. Go here to enter! At any rate, the sharps are on the Broncos. Most books have -3 +100/-105 listed. The best line, by far, is -2.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -1.

Computer Model: Broncos -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 59% (286,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Saints -1.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars are about to experience addition by subtraction. I’m not referring to Doug Pederson’s impending firing, but that would also apply if that were to happen after this game. What I’m referring to is Pederson’s usage of his running backs.

I thought it was unbelievable how Pederson mismanaged this area last week. Tank Bigsby looked like Emmitt Smith against the Colts, and yet Pederson came out of the gate with Travis Etienne getting the first carry. D’Ernest Johnson of all people got goal line work later in the drive. It’s like Pederson forgot that Bigsby existed. He won’t be able to do that this week because Etienne is injured. This is bullish for the Jaguars, who won’t have to see Etienne waste downs any longer. Bigsby will be a much better option against New England’s poor run defense.

The Patriots also struggle to cover the pass. Brian Thomas Jr., Evan Engram, and all of Trevor Lawrence’s receivers will be able to get open in this game. It’s just a matter of Lawrence being able to connect with them. Lawrence missed multiple open receivers last week, which has been a trend for him this season.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Drake Maye had a mixed outing in his first start. He made some good throws, but he was also guilty of mistakes, including a couple of turnovers. He lost a fumble on a strip-sack, and he took lots of hits. Lots, and lots of hits. I don’t know if he’ll be able to survive this beating, the Patriots wanted to start him behind their putrid offensive line for some reason.

The Jaguars don’t have a good defense, but they do a couple of things well on this side of the ball. They have a couple of talented edge rushers who could give Maye lots of problems. This was the case for Maye last week, and the rookie figures to be under lots of heat once again. This will help Jacksonville’s awful secondary, though it’s not like Maye had the capable receivers to expose this weakness anyway.

One other thing Jacksonville’s defense does is contain the run. We didn’t really see this last week because the Jaguars were so worried about all of Chicago’s talented receivers. Jacksonville will be able to limit Rhamondre Stevenson, if he even plays.

RECAP: The Jaguars are a mess. They stood no chance against the Bears. However, I think it’s a mistake to avoid betting them here just because they were blown out against Chicago. The Bears are secretly a terrific team, ranking fourth in net adjusted EPA, thanks to Caleb Williams’ development and the defense’s dominating play. The Patriots, conversely, are dead last in net EPA.

Jacksonville deserves to be a favorite over New England. A line of -5.5 may seem too high, and it would be under normal circumstances. However, the Jaguars have an unparalleled advantage in this game, and that is their body-clock adjustment by remaining in England for a week. We saw this have a colossal impact last year when they destroyed a great Buffalo team coming off a blowout win against the undefeated Dolphins. The Jaguars weren’t even the better team in that matchup, yet they won easily. They’re definitely the better team here even though they have some glaring weaknesses.

I also love that the Jaguars were thoroughly embarrassed on an international stage. They were blown out, so they’re the laughing stock of England right now. I imagine they’re hearing about how bad they were everywhere they go. They’ll be incredibly motivated in this game. I love them to rebound this week.

I know I said I’d avoid betting large amounts on horrible teams, but the corollary was that it was OK if they were battling another bad team. That is certainly the case in this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Not that it matters too much for this matchup, but Tyson Campbell looks to be back this week, as he was limited in Wednesday’s practice. There’s a ton of sharp action on the Jaguars, but then again, that was the case last week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tyson Campbell is questionable after practicing on a limited basis all week. He could be back for this game, which would boost Jacksonville’s secondary. The sharps have bet Jacksonville up to -6.

LOCKED IN: We reported this on our show, and I also tweeted out that I would be locking in Jaguars -6. Sharp money moved the line to -6.5 across the board. You can check out our Saturday show here:

PLAYER PROP BET & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m betting Evan Engram over receiving yards. Engram is healthy and should have some big games on the horizon. The Patriots have been awful against tight ends. The best number is over 46.5 -114 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

I’m putting Engram in the same-game parlay with Rhamondre Stevenson over 2.5 receptions, Demario Douglas over 48.5 receiving yards, and Tank Bigsby over 56.5 rushing yards. The Jaguars struggle against pass-catching backs, and Stevenston tends to get 3-4 receptions per game. Douglas has been on a tear lately, and the Jaguars recently surrendered a huge game to Josh Downs. Bigsby should trample the Patriots, who can’t stop the run at all. There’s a 30-percent odds boost on FanDuel, so this $25 parlay pays $343.31. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We saw the sharp action happen live on our show last night. The pros hammered Jacksonville at -6, then did so again later at -6.5. The best line is currently -7 -105 at BetMGM, as all the -6.5s are long gone.

The Motivation. Edge: Jaguars.

The Jaguars were embarrassed on an international stage. They also have the body-clock advantage.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -5.5.

Computer Model: Jaguars -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Public on the Patriots, sharps on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on New England: 78% (42,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Jaguars are 62-109 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -3.5.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Rain, 62 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 7-14 ATS through three weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Bills -2.5

Texans -7

Falcons -6

Bengals -3.5

Steelers -3

Bears +1.5

The public was 7-14 heading into Week 6. Well, in Week 6, every single public side won heading into Monday night. And the Joes once again crushed it with the Bills, thanks to Greg Zuerlein. The public sides are now 13-14.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Patriots +5.5

Redskins -7.5

Eagles -3

Lions +2.5

Bengals -5.5

Bills -8.5

Chiefs +1.5

Not one, not two, not three, not four, but five road favorites. And the lone exception is a neutral-site favorite! Road favorites this decade have covered just 49.1 percent of the time, so keep that in mind if you want to join the public.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Geno Smith has been better than expected this year, given the turnover in coaching. However, he’s coming off his worst outing of 2024. He struggled against the 49ers in what turned out to be a blowout loss.

Smith was in a tough matchup against a defense that got healthier. He’ll have a much easier time against the Falcons. Atlanta doesn’t get after the quarterback at all, owning the second-worst pressure rate in the NFL. Only Carolina generates less pressure than the Falcons. Smith will have plenty of time to carve up a secondary that has surrendered some big performances to opposing receivers.

The Seahawks should be able to run the ball as well. The Panthers were gashing the Falcons on the ground last week with Chuba Hubbard, who was so effective that the FOX announcers dubbed him the “Canadian Express.” If Hubbard could have that sort of success, imagine what Kenneth Walker will accomplish.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Seahawks rank better against the run than Atlanta, but it’s not like they’re effective at stopping it. Jordan Mason was on pace to hit 150 rushing yards on Thursday night before suffering a shoulder injury. Isaac Guerendo and Patrick Taylor both rushed the ball well in the wake of Mason’s injury.

The Falcons will be able to move the chains on the ground with both backs. This will make things easier for Kirk Cousins, who will be facing a much better pass rush than Smith will. While Atlanta is second-worst in pressure rate, the Seahawks rank No. 3, only behind the Vikings and Chiefs. Cousins can be rattled with pressure, so if Seattle can continue to hound the quarterback consistently, Cousins could be forced into some turnovers.

The Seahawks will need to get to Cousins because the veteran quarterback can expose some liabilities in the secondary if kept clean in the pocket. The Seahawks have some injuries there, which would explain why they’ve allowed some big gains to receivers. Seattle is also weak to tight ends, so perhaps this will be a game in which Kyle Pitts will be more involved.

RECAP: I’m disappointed this line is only -2.5. I figured that with the Seahawks losing three in a row, and the Falcons beating the Buccaneers on “national TV” and then blowing out the Panthers, this spread would have moved off the advance line of -2.5 to perhaps -3.5.

Yet, it has remained at -2.5, which is very odd. It’s almost like the sportsbooks are begging the public to bet Atlanta. I think the Seahawks are the play, and not just based on this conspiracy theory. Atlanta’s defense has been rather poor and struggles to generate pressure on the quarterback, so Seattle, on extra rest, should be able to have plenty of success.

Furthermore, the Falcons could be distracted. They have a huge game against the 4-2 Buccaneers next week. They recently played Tampa Bay, but that game is effectively for the division. I don’t really think Atlanta will be fully focused for Seattle.

It sucks that we’re not getting good line value. That’ll keep me from betting this game very heavily, but I think this spread is off by design. I’m hoping we can get a +3 at some point, but it already looks like there’s sharp money on the Seahawks.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Seahawks were down a couple of cornerbacks in Wednesday’s practice, including Tariq Woolen, while the Falcons didn’t have Justin Simmons. There’s lots of early sharp action on the Seahawks.

PLAYER PROP BET: Kyle Pitts was criticized for starting the season slowly, but he has accumulated at least 59 receiving yards in three of the past four games. Yet, his yardage prop is only 39.5 even though the Seahawks are terrible at defending tight ends. The best number is over 39.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Seahawks will be down their top two cornerbacks. That may sound bad, given the opponent, but Seattle was already poor against outside receivers, so what does it really matter? There is still a strong motivational angle in Seattle’s favor, and Atlanta really isn’t that good; the Falcons could be 1-5 right now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kenneth Walker is active, so no need to worry about the rushing attack. The sharp action is split on this game. The best line is +3 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.

The Seahawks were just embarrassed on “national TV.” The Falcons have the Buccaneers next week.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -2.5.

Computer Model: Falcons -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 53% (127,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Falcons -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

Wow, what a blow to my confidence. Semi-horrible is OK. Absolutely horrible? Ouch!

Something we’re great at is our mock drafts. Watch me school this clown:

That was so brutal that his unborn grandkids will be shamed.

Here’s someone just being mean:

Some people have the unfortunate medical issue of having air in their heads. This Karrie bigot should be more sensitive.

Here’s some from Monday night:

I actually thought this guy was referring to the official because he responded to one of my tweets where I berated the horrible refs from the Bills-Jets game.

He replied:

I would have normally responded with something snarky, but I was incredibly frustrated with how the Monday night game went.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: This is the perfect matchup for Josh Allen. I thought the same for Anthony Richardson last week, but he didn’t end playing. The reason is because Tennessee’s linebacking corps is so dreadful that it struggles to contain scrambling quarterbacks. Allen doesn’t run as frequently as he does late in the season and playoffs, but when he decides to do that in this game, he’ll pick up chunks of yardage.

The same can’t be said for his running backs. Whether it’s James Cook or Ray Davis, the Bills will struggle to move the chains on the ground when Allen isn’t running, given that Tennessee is fourth against the rush.

The Titans would normally be great against the pass as well because they obtained two No. 1 cornerbacks this offseason in Chidobe Awuzie and L’Jarius Sneed. However, Awuzie is currently on injured reserve, while Sneed has struggled because he’s playing hurt. Allen doesn’t have the receivers to exploit this matchup outside of Khalil Shakir. However, Allen will be able to attack the middle of the field with throws to Cook and Dalton Kincaid.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Will Levis had an amazing matchup in Week 6. He was battling an injury-ravaged Colts defense that revived Trevor Lawrence the prior week. I considered Levis a great DFS option, yet he flopped miserably. He failed to throw for 100 yards, and he couldn’t connect with Calvin Ridley on eight tries. Ridley became the first receiver since 2012 to have no catches on eight or more targets. Unreal.

Things will be much more difficult for Levis this week. The Bills rank seventh in defensive dropback EPA. They have a couple of talented cornerbacks to take away Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins. Buffalo can also generate a decent pass rush to rattle Levis.

The one chance the Titans have on this side of the ball is to establish Tony Pollard. The Bills are weak to the run, so Pollard could have some explosive runs. However, the Titans could fall way behind early on, which would negate Pollard’s opportunities.

RECAP: Had the Bills lost to the Jets like they were supposed to, I would have bet them heavily in this game to rebound off three consecutive losses, with the most recent one being on national TV. Stupid Greg Zuerlein had to ruin everything.

As it stands now, I’m neutral on the game. The Bills, if completely focused, will be able to destroy the Titans. However, they’re coming off an emotional victory on a national stage and will be playing on a short work week. This is a poor spot for them, but Levis and the Titans are so awful that it may not matter. And yes, this is the first instance of me passing on a game to avoid betting a crappy team. I just wanted to note that before the Titans cover easily!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Amari Cooper was traded after I wrote up this pick on Tuesday. Cooper obviously gives the Bills a better chance of covering this spread, especially when considering that Tennessee could be without both starting cornerbacks. As Evan said on Tuesday’s pick show, the Bills are a front-running team. I think there’s some merit to betting a couple of units on them.

PLAYER PROP BET: We bet Breece Hall’s over receiving yards last week because the Bills allow a ton of yardage to receiving backs. We’ll be betting Tony Pollard for the same reason, as well as the fact that Tyjae Spears is out. Pollard will get all of the receiving work in a likely deficit. The best number is over 21.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills will have Ed Oliver and James Cook back from injury, but I’m going to drop the two projected units I had on them. An e-mailer pointed out Buffalo’s tough travel schedule to me. The Bills had three straight home games and are coming off a short week, which seems like a very difficult travel schedule. This could be enough to squash the Titans, but the Bills won’t be playing at their best.

FINAL THOUGHTS: L’Jarius Sneed is out, so the Titans will be missing both starting cornerbacks. Tennessee is unappealing as a team to bet, but so are the Bills because of the post-national TV victory. This is a pass for me, and the same can be said of the sharps. The best line is -9 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Bills are coming off an emotional win on national TV, and now will be playing on a short week.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -7.5.

Computer Model: Bills -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 83% (93,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bills -8.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Sunny, 63 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Anyone expecting Joe Burrow to light up the Giants on Sunday night was greatly disappointed. Burrow had an unexpected long touchdown run in the first quarter, but didn’t do anything otherwise. He was lucky to escape with a victory.

Burrow didn’t have much success against the Giants because he saw lots of pressure. The same thing will happen in this game. Myles Garrett routinely dominates Cincinnati’s weak offensive line. Burrow will constantly be under siege, so he won’t be able to fully exploit a defense with some liabilities on the back end.

The Bengals won’t threaten Cleveland with the run at all either. Zack Moss and Chase Brown are as pedestrian as it gets. The Browns just put the clamps on Saquon Barkley, so they shouldn’t have any trouble stopping Cincinnati’s rushing duo.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Speaking of the running game, the Browns will have Nick Chubb back for the first time since his gruesome knee injury in Week 2 last year. It’s unclear how limited Chubb will be. It’s almost certain that he won’t receive a full workload, but it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be when given his chances.

Chubb, at the very least, should make the Bengals somewhat honest against the run, especially when considering how brutal they’ve been against the rush this year. This will make life easier for Deshaun Watson, who obviously needs all the help he can get.

Watson, by the way, got that help last week. The Browns had both tackles on the field for the first time all year last week. This didn’t translate to a victory, but it did allow Watson to have his best performance of the season. Watson was 11-of-12 in the second half against the Eagles. Granted, Philadelphia’s pass defense is a mess, but so is Cincinnati’s. The Bengals have had serious issues containing No. 1 receivers, so Amari Cooper projects well.

RECAP: Cleveland has been a house of horrors for Burrow. In four visits to Cleveland, Burrow has lost 35-30, 21-16, 32-13, and 24-3. It makes sense that the Browns would give him problems. They have Garrett and the rest of their pass rush against a Cincinnati offensive line that hasn’t been very good to say the least. Burrow saw plenty of pressure last week, so that should continue.

Without even taking this into consideration, this spread is way too high. The line is Cleveland +5.5, and yet I’m getting +2 per my NFL Power Rankings and +1.5 according to the EPA numbers. I can’t even get to +3; let alone +5.5!

The Bengals seem like a great fade. They could have easily lost to the Giants, yet they prevailed, and now they could be flat off a win on national TV. Meanwhile, this is Cleveland’s Super Bowl. The Browns are 1-5, but they could at least legitimize their season by knocking off Cincinnati.

I’m going to be on the Browns for a few units. I know I said I won’t bet crappy teams anymore, but I don’t consider Cleveland crappy. With both of their tackles back, I’d say the Browns are below average, so I think they’re safe to bet.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money took the Browns from +6.5 to +6. Perhaps that’s because Nick Chubb was full in Wednesday’s practice.

PLAYER PROP BET: We bet A.J. Brown last week because the Browns are very weak to WR1s. We’ll be betting Ja’Marr Chase for the same reason. Chase has gone over 85 receiving yards in three of the past four weeks, but is coming off his worst game since Week 2. He’ll be motivated to rebound. The best number is over 78.5 -112 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nick Chubb might not be the only Browns star back. Juan Thornhill has a chance to return from injured reserve as well. Perhaps this is why the sharps took Cleveland down from +6.5 to +6.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The one inactive of note is Jameis Winston, so there might be a trade on the horizon. The sharps are on Cleveland, taking this line down from +6.5 to +5.5. The best line is +6 -119 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

This is the Browns’ Super Bowl. The Bengals are coming off a win on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -4.5.

Computer Model: Bengals -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 77% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

History: Browns have won 9 of the last 11 meetings, excluding a game where the Browns sat their starters.

Joe Burrow is 39-19 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-6 ATS otherwise).

Opening Line: Bengals -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 65 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It’s killing me that I didn’t bet on the Packers last week because I was right about my theory concerning “No Cookie” Jordan Love. I noted that Love returned from injury early and wasn’t effective in his first two games. Week 6 was Love’s original target date, so I suspected he would be close to 100 percent in that game. Sure enough, he responded with a brilliant, four-touchdown performance against the Cardinals.

Love has a nice matchup against the Texans. Houston’s bread and butter on this side of the ball is generating a heavy pass rush. Love is protected very well, so he’ll have time to locate his many talented receivers against a secondary that is known to blow some coverages.

The Texans also struggle to defend the run. Josh Jacobs hasn’t been amazing in Green Bay, but he’s been pretty effective in moving the chains, and that’s what he’ll do in this contest.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Speaking of rushing attacks, it was huge for the Texans that they were able to get Joe Mixon back from injury last week. I normally don’t think a running back absence is a major thing when it comes to handicapping NFL games, but it definitely happens to be enormous for Houston. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik calls far too many early-down runs, which nearly sabotaged a victory against Jacksonville when he insisted on feeding the ball to Cam Akers.

Mixon returning allowed the Texans to move the chains easily against the Patriots, who struggle to defend the run. Things will be much different this week, however. The Packers have maintained one of the top rush defenses in the NFL this year, so they should be able to limit Mixon and force C.J. Stroud into third-and-long situations.

Stroud would be able to easily overcome this if Nico Collins were playing, but Collins’ absence could be felt in this game. Stroud still has Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, but with Jaire Alexander, Green Bay can take away one of those two threats.

RECAP: This spread probably seems about right to most people. Packers -3? Sure. However, I have a conflict in my projections. My NFL Power Rankings have Green Bay -2.5, so there looks to be a bit of value with Houston +3. Then again, the EPA numbers say this should be Green Bay -5.5, so taking the Packers at -3 might be the way to go.

Luckily, we have some matchup edges to help us with this spread conflict. The Packers have an outstanding defense capable of taking away what the Texans like to do, especially in the wake of Collins’ absence. They can also neutralize Houston’s defensive strength.

I like the Packers to cover, and I’ll be betting them for a couple of units. I won’t go any higher because I’m not in love with this spread being at -3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve heard concerns about Laremy Tunsil’s injury, but Tunsil was limited in Wednesday’s practice. That’s a good sign for his availability.

PLAYER PROP BET: I don’t like anything here. The Texans are very weak to the slot, but Jayden Reed has a bum ankle and may not be 100 percent. The Packers are woeful versus tight ends, but Dalton Schultz’s receiving yardage prop is absurdly high.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Texans won’t have Jimmie Ward, Kamari Lassiter, Azeez Al-Shaair, and potentially Foley Fatukasi. None of these are star players, but they’re valuable pieces of Houston’s defense. The Texans will have Denico Autry back from suspension, but it’s unclear if he’s in shape.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp action on either side. I still like the Packers for a couple of units. The only sportsbook that hasn’t juiced the Packers -3 over -110 is BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -2.5.

Computer Model: Packers -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

The Texans are a public underdog.

Percentage of money on Houston: 71% (118,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 53-36 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -1.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Sunny, 69 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: We’ll have at least one more week of Tyler Huntley starting. Tua Tagovailoa has to spend another week on injured reserve before potentially returning in Week 8. It remains to be seen when he’ll make his way back to the field, but earlier reporting suggested that he would be able to return next week.

The Dolphins should be fine with Tyler Huntley in this matchup. The Colts have been dreadful against the pass this year, as they even allowed Trevor Lawrence to look like the great quarterback we saw in 2022 and the early parts of 2023. They clamped down on Will Levis last week, but Levis is a lost cause at this point. Huntley has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at his disposal, so he’ll be able to move the chains aerially.

Miami will also succeed at moving the chains on the ground. The Colts happen to be dreadful when it comes to stopping the run, thanks to numerous injuries on this side of the ball. It’s unclear if De’Von Achane will play, but the Dolphins should do well with Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts are unlikely to have their starting running back. Jonathan Taylor is dealing with a high-ankle sprain, so he’s expected to miss the next game or two. Trey Sermon isn’t exactly the most threatening back, and I don’t think he’ll be great against a Miami defense that can be beaten via the run.

The Dolphins will at least have to worry about Anthony Richardson’s running if the mobile quarterback returns to action following a two-game absence. The Dolphins don’t have the best linebacking corps to put it nicely, so Richardson will be able to run circles around their defense.

Richardson’s passing leaves much to be desired, of course, so there’s some give and take when it comes to the quarterback Indianapolis will start in this game. Joe Flacco would be best to attack Miami’s secondary, especially with Josh Downs, who has been incredible since his return from injury.

RECAP: I wrote this in the Saints-Broncos pick capsule. Backup-caliber quarterbacks tend to have a high cover rate when they battle mediocre or poor defenses, but struggle when battling top defenses.

I think we know how to rate Indianapolis’ stop unit. The Colts are a mess with injuries to key players. They allowed Lawrence to have his best game of the season while struggling against everyone else. Levis sucked last week, but Levis might be a lost cause at this point.

I expect Huntley to play well, but the Dolphins should have the most success with their running backs. Conversely, the Colts may have a hobbled quarterback at the helm if Richardson returns.

I like the Dolphins this week. We’re getting a great number at +3.5, as the Colts aren’t good enough to be favored by more than a field goal over a competent opponent. People won’t want to bet on Miami because of Huntley, but this is a perfect chance for him to play well.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money took Miami at +3.5. I imagine that’s because 10 Colts missed Wednesday’s practice, including Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., and Josh Downs. Anthony Richardson was full in practice, which might actually be bad news for Indianapolis.

PLAYER PROP BET: Nothing here, though if Trey Sermon is ruled out, I’ll have interest in Tyler Goodson’s over rushing yards.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jonathan Taylor has been ruled out, as expected, but Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs are iffy to play. Anthony Richardson will be back, but I don’t think that’s necessarily a good thing. As a Dolphins bettor, I prefer to see Richardson over Joe Flacco unless both top receivers are sidelined.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps took the Dolphins at +3.5, but haven’t touched this game at +3. I can’t find any clean +3 -110s, unfortunately. The best line I see is +3 -115, available at BetMGM and DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Dolphins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -4.

Computer Model: Colts -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 57% (89,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Dolphins are 29-19 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Opening Line: Colts -3.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Lions had a huge win over the Cowboys, but they suffered a colossal loss when Aidan Hutchinson broke his tibia. Hutchinson will be out for the year, which will severely diminish Detroit’s pass rush. He’ll sorely be missed.

Hutchinson was the only hope for the Lions to pressure Sam Darnold. The Vikings have an excellent offensive line, so someone like Hutchinson could have beaten that difficult matchup. The Hutchinson-less Lions won’t be able to rattle Darnold at all. Darnold will have plenty of time to torch Detroit’s weak secondary.

The Lions will at least hold up well against the run. They have one of the top ground-stopping defenses in the league, so they’ll be able to contain the Vikings’ rushing attack, especially if Aaron Jones is sidelined again.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Jared Goff got off to a shaky start this season, but has been nearly flawless recently. He was quite literally flawless against the Seahawks back in Week 4, completing all 18 of his passes. He then torched the Cowboys relentlessly this past Sunday.

Goff will be put to the test this week. Brian Flores runs some chaotic blitz schemes that confused the younger quarterbacks he battled earlier in the season. Aaron Rodgers was even befuddled by it. Goff has been amazing against the blitz this year, completing 70.7 percent of his passes on a 12.1 YPA.

Goff has weapons galore, so he’ll be able to distribute the ball well while getting some great protection from his offensive line. He won’t be able to lean on his rushing attack, as the Vikings are ranked second against the run.

RECAP: This is a game I’m just going to sit back and watch. Outside of a potential player prop bet, I won’t be betting this game. This spread is pretty much what I expected it to be. Granted, my power ranking numbers say this should be Minnesota -3, but the EPA figures say that Detroit should be favored by 1.5.

In addition to the spread being about correct, we’re also getting no motivational angles. Both teams are coming off big wins, with Detroit blowing out Dallas, and Minnesota prevailing overseas. These are unfavorable spots in which I’d normally look to fade both teams, but we don’t get to do that.

If I had a lean, it’s on the Vikings because they’re coming off a bye, while the Lions don’t have Hutchinson. Plus, Detroit is a public dog.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Blake Cashman will miss this game. Casual bettors won’t know the name, but he’s been one of the best linebackers in the NFL this year. I’m still leaning toward Minnesota, but I’m not confident about the pick.

PLAYER PROP BET: The Vikings have an outstanding defense, but the only area where they’ve consistently allowed production is to tight ends. Sam LaPorta hasn’t been great this year, but he’s gone over the posted total in three of his four full games. The best number is over 41.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: While Blake Cashman is out, the Vikings might get Aaron Jones, T.J. Hockenson, and Dalton Risner back from injury. I still have a lean on the Vikings, but I’m nowhere near betting this game.

TEASER: I’m teasing Lions +8 with Chiefs +8. Both underdogs are likely to keep their games close. If the Lions +8 covers, I will try to middle with 49ers -2.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp action on the Vikings. A few sportsbooks have moved this line to -2. You can still get -1.5 -107 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -1.5.

Computer Model: Lions -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

The Lions are a huge public dog.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 77% (155,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Vikings have won 9 of the last 13 meetings (Lions won last 3 meetings).

Vikings are 45-36 ATS at home since 2014 (14-21 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -1.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: I’ve never seen someone so stupid until I saw this interview:

“I don’t think.” Couldn’t have said it any better myself.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Much was expected from the Eagles last week. The Browns have a good defense, but Philadelphia was welcoming back A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson to the lineup. Surely, there would be some fireworks.

Instead, the Eagles struggled to pull away from the Browns. It didn’t help that Jordan Mailata and Dallas Goedert suffered injuries, but the Eagles were inconsistent offensively. They hit some big plays, but floundered on way too many drives. Hurts could struggle again, as the Giants bring a immense pass rush with Brian Burns. Mailata is expected to be sidelined, so Hurts’ pass protection won’t be as potent as usual, so the big plays to Brown and Smith may not happen very often.

Of course, there’s also Saquon Barkley, who will be looking for revenge against the team that drafted him. Barkley, however, will be challenged by the NFL’s third-ranked rush defense, so he may struggle to find running room, much like last week.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Eagles have also been a major disappointment on this side of the ball. Their defense is ranked in the bottom half of the NFL despite making some upgrades to the personnel and coaching staff this offseason. They allowed Deshaun Watson to complete his first 11 passes of the second half last week.

The Eagles still have issues in the secondary, so covering against the Giants will be difficult, assuming Malik Nabers returns from injury. Darius Slayton has done a good job filling in for Nabers, but Nabers is a unique talent who will give Philadelphia’s defense major problems.

Nabers isn’t the only rookie who projects well. Tyrone Tracy has been electric since taking over for the injured Devin Singletary. The Eagles have been known to struggle against the rush, so Tracy figures to have another quality performance.

RECAP: What a shame we didn’t get the advance spread. The Eagles were favored by four, yet that line has dropped to three because of what transpired last week.

Though it seems as though we’re getting good line value with the Eagles, that may not be the case. Both my power rankings and the EPA numbers say this line should be pick ’em. So, in reality, we’re getting good line value with the Giants.

I’m going to be on the Giants. Their defense has been awesome lately. Meanwhile, the Eagles haven’t improved with their new coaching staff. The defense continues to be terrible, while the offense isn’t clicking. Hurts has struggled this year with some sloppy play and inaccurate throws. He’s had some great moments as well, but he’s hurt his team way more than in past years.

This is also a situation in which Hurts hasn’t performed well in the past. Hurts is awful as a road favorite with a 7-15 ATS record.

Despite all of this, I don’t think I’ll be betting the Giants. I’d be on New York (assuming Nabers plays) at +4 or +3.5, but +3 sucks. I know I said that we still have value with the Giants, but at +3, there’s not much room for error because as pedestrian as the Eagles have been, I don’t know if I see them losing to New York.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both teams didn’t have some major players for Wednesday’s practices. Jordan Mailata and Dallas Goedert were out for the Eagles, while the Giants didn’t have Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, and Andrew Thomas. It’ll be interesting to see how the rest of the week unravels.

PLAYER PROP BET: This is a revenge game for Saquon Barkley, but I like him to do his damage as a receiver rather than a running back because the Giants allow lots of receiving yardage to opposing backs. Barkley has exceeded this posted total in three of his five games this year. The best number is over 14.5 -120 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Bad news for the Eagles: Not only will they be missing Jordan Mailata and Dallas Goedert; the Giants will be getting back Malik Nabers, and they had Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence both return to practice on Friday after being DNPs on Wednesday and Thursday. Andrew Thomas is on injured reserve though, so it’s not like all is positive for New York.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Giants had some good news this morning, with both Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns being active. This doesn’t mean that they’re 100 percent, however. I’m still neutral on this game, and the sharps are as well. The best line is +3 +100 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -4.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Tons of action on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 82% (129,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Eagles have won 27 the last 33 meetings.

Jalen Hurts is 7-15 ATS as a road favorite.

Opening Line: Eagles -4.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Sunny, 71 degrees. Light wind.