NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2024 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
2024 NFL Picks: 49-51-4 (-$3,060)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Reports indicate that Cooper Kupp may have a chance to play this game. It must be a huge relief to Matthew Stafford that one of his top receivers is close to returning because he’s had to rely on the likes of Jordan Whittington and Tutu Atwell since Week 2.

It’s unclear if Kupp will be 100 percent, but this is obviously an easy matchup. It didn’t look like that was the case to start the year when the Raiders were considered to have one of the top defenses in the NFL, but Christian Wilkins is out for the season, while Maxx Crosby has been banged up. The Raiders had one of the top pass rushes in 2023, but they’re 10th-worst in that category this year. As a result, they’ve surrendered some big games to No. 1 receivers.

The Raiders are even worse when it comes to dealing with running backs. They’re eighth-worst when it comes to stopping the run, and they allow tons of yardage to pass-catching backs. Najee Harris even looked competent against them, so imagine what Kyren Williams will accomplish.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Kupp will be the only stud receiver returning in this game. Davante Adams, for those of you who haven’t heard, was traded to the Jets for a third-round pick. I have NFL Trade Grades posted for both teams on this page.

Adams returning this week would have been a huge boon for the offense. He and Jakobi Meyers would’ve looked great against Los Angeles’ secondary, which is ranked 29th in the NFL per EPA dropback. Still, even without Adams, the Raiders could have success moving the chains aerially, given that Los Angeles’ pass defense is so bad. The Rams are at their worst when it comes to defending tight ends, so Brock Bowers figures to have a massive game.

There’s a chance the Raiders will be able to run the ball as well. They’ve battled some very difficult rush defenses lately, as the Browns, Broncos and Steelers are fully capable of clamping down on opposing rushing attacks. That’s not true for the Rams, who have one of the worst ground-stopping units in the NFL. The Rams were the original team to revive D’Andre Swift’s career, so perhaps they’ll do the same for either Zamir White or Alexander Mattison.

RECAP: Before I tell you that I love the Raiders, please let me explain that I’m not violating my rule of not betting crappy teams. Remember the corollary: Betting crappy teams is OK if they’re battling other bad teams. The Rams, by any measure, are a bad team. Ever since they lost their receivers, they were blown out by the Cardinals and lost to the Bears. They were also getting crushed by San Francisco before the 49ers fell asleep at the wheel. They’ve won one game all year, and it was by three points. They’re only six or seven spots better than the Raiders in the NFL Power Rankings and EPA numbers. Kupp coming back could change that, but he may not be 100 percent in his first action since his injury. There’s also no guarantee that he’ll even play.

If I’ve made you comfortable with taking the Raiders, let me explain why I like them this week. First, it has to do with the Rams being favored by too many points. The Rams, as discussed, are not a good team, so they’re an automatic fade if favored by more than a field goal. This line is way too high. EPA has this at -3.5, and I think -3 might actually be correct. A spread of seven is absurd.

Another reason to like the Raiders is because the Rams are likely to be unfocused. They’re coming off a bye, but they have a huge game in four days against the Vikings. Big favorites have an awful track record heading into Thursday games, and I don’t see why the Rams would be at their best against this stupid Raider team whom the Rams just saw lose in a blowout to Pittsburgh.

Speaking of which, that brings us to our next point, which is that the Raiders were embarrassed at home. In fact, the Raiders have gotten blown out in two consecutive games, so this is a favorable spot for them.

It might be possible that I haven’t convinced you to bet the Raiders yet. If so, there’s nothing else I can say. I’ll be wagering on the Raiders, and the unit count will depend on Kupp’s availability.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Raiders at +7, though Maxx Crosby missed Wednesday’s practice yet again. Kolton Miller and Dylan Parham missed Wednesday’s practice as well. Cooper Kupp, meanwhile, was limited on Wednesday.

PLAYER PROP BET: We won with Brock Bowers last week, and we’re going to bet him again. Bowers’ prop is 61.5 yards, yet he’s hit at least 71 yards three times this year. The Rams are awful at defending tight ends. The best number is over 61.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Raiders some major injuries that have pushed this line to -7. Jakobi Meyers is out, as is Dylan Parham, who happens to be the team’s second-best lineman. The Raiders will at least have right tackle Thayer Munford returning, so that’s at least something. As for the Rams, they may get back Cooper Kupp, who was limited all week. This isn’t great for the Raiders. I still like them, but I can’t go above three units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Some +7.5s have popped up. The sharps were on the Raiders earlier in the week, but they’ve jumped on the Rams the past 24 hours.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Cooper Kupp is out, which is obviously huge. As mentioned earlier, there’s mixed sharp action on this game. The best line is +7 -102 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Raiders were just embarrassed at home. The Rams play against the Vikings in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -4.

Computer Model: Rams -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Good amount of action on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 65% (67,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Jayden Daniels has completed six weeks of his rookie season, and he’s already the most expensive quarterback on DraftKings. He has a higher price tag than Jalen Hurts, C.J. Stroud, and even Josh Allen. That’s how amazing he has been.

Daniels has an incredibly easy matchup. The Panthers don’t do anything well on this side of the ball. They don’t generate any pressure on the quarterback. When I say that, I mean it. Carolina is ranked dead last in pressure rate, even though it blitzes at the seventh-highest frequency in the league. Think about that. The Panthers often send extra pass rushers, yet they never get there anyway, which exposes the secondary. This is a major reason why Carolina has allowed huge games to outside receivers. Terry McLaurin must be licking his chops.

It’d be bad enough if the Panthers were only this dreadful against aerial attacks, but they’re also abysmal when it comes to stopping the run. Tyler Allgeier just trampled the Panthers, so Brian Robinson Jr. will be in for a big day unless he’s sidelined again.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Given how horrible the Panther defense is, if Bryce Young were still starting, Carolina might be considered the worst NFL team of all time. Andy Dalton has provided some stability, but that’s even changing. The Panthers were down just 28-20 in the fourth quarter when they were driving down the field. They entered field goal range with some great Chuba Hubbard runs. The announcers even dubbed Hubbard the “Canadian Express.” Dalton, however, tried to force an awful throw to his tight end, which was promptly picked. He ruined a potential tie game in the fourth quarter, and perhaps this is a sign of things to come.

Having said that, this is a great matchup for Dalton. Washington has a very poor secondary that also has allowed some big games to opposing No. 1 receivers. Zay Flowers caught nine passes last week – in the first half alone! Diontae Johnson has been great ever since Dalton took over, and he should have another great performance in this game.

The Panthers also figure to run well, provided they don’t fall too far behind. The Canadian Express has also been excellent with Dalton, thanks to some great blocking. The Redskins have one of the worst rush defenses in the league.

RECAP: Forget everything I said about not betting crappy teams. I love the Panthers! Five units, baby!

OK, I’m kidding. I’m actually going to side with the Redskins. Carolina’s defense is in shambles. I underestimated this in my selection last week when I foolishly bet five units on the Panthers. Carolina had no chance of stopping the Falcons, and yet Washington has an even better offense!

I don’t plan on betting this game because at +7.5, the back door is going to be wide open for the Panthers. Dalton has tons of weapons at his disposal, so he could get there at the end versus a Washington defense that is not any good.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Josey Jewell or Taylor Moton in Wednesday’s practice. If they’re out, it’s going to be difficult for the Panthers to be competitive in this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Panthers are such a mess. They have cluster injuries everywhere. Diontae Johnson was DNP-DNP-limited, so he may not play. Meanwhile, Claudin Cherelus, who has played well in relief of the injured linebackers, is now out as well. That would explain why the action was steamed on Washington to -9.5.

PLAYER PROP BET: Terry McLaurin has had some monster performances this year, and this could easily be another one. The Panthers do everything poorly, but they’re especially atrocious against top receivers. The best number is over 63.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel.

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SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Still nothing here outside of Terry McLaurin props. Hopefully the Redskins don’t run as much as the Jaguars did to ruin another prop of ours.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s so much public money on the Redskins, while the sharps haven’t weighed in on this game. Most books have -10 -110 listed, but you can save a bit at BetRivers, which has -109 listed. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -7.5.

Computer Model: Redskins -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Who in their right mind is going to bet the Panthers?

Percentage of money on Washington: 86% (114,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Redskins are 11-27 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -8.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Sunny, 72 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers moved the chains effectively against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, but there’s one obvious element missing from that game. That would be Christian McCaffrey, who notched 80 rushing and 80 receiving yards in that contest. McCaffrey’s absence hasn’t been felt too much this year because Jordan Mason has been so effective, but Mason suffered a shoulder injury Thursday night. It’s unclear if Mason will be ready to play, but it’s worth noting that the 49ers struggled to hold on to their lead without Mason, given that their rushing attack wasn’t potent with the backups.

San Francisco will be able to attack Kansas City’s defense in a different way, however. The Chiefs have been incredibly weak to tight ends this year, which was not the case in 2023. George Kittle didn’t do much in the Super Bowl, but he’ll put together a big performance.

Another area in which the Chiefs have been weak on this side of the ball is defending the No. 2 receiver. Steve Spagnuolo often loves to double team the opposing top option, which he could consider to be Brandon Aiyuk. Thus, Deebo Samuel could thrive unless Spagnuolo deems both wideouts talented enough to eschew the double-team strategy.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs have had a couple of unexpected players emerge for them in the wake of major injuries. Kareem Hunt rushed for 100-plus yards in Week 5, while JuJu Smith-Schuster had the game of his life despite causing an interception with a drop.

I do not expect Hunt and Smith-Schuster to repeat these performances. The 49ers are stout against the run, and they cover slot receivers much more effectively than the Saints do because of Deommodore Lenoire. They’re worse against pass-catching running backs, but the Chiefs aren’t particularly strong in this area.

The 49ers are much weaker to outside receivers, particularly No. 2 options. Tyler Lockett just had a great performance, for example. However, the Chiefs don’t really have much of a threat here either. Who is going to expose this liability, exactly? Justin Watson? Patrick Mahomes is great, but even he can’t get Watson to be a viable threat.

RECAP: I’m surprised the Chiefs aren’t favored. Andy Reid has an amazing track record off a bye. The spread record isn’t fantastic because the sportsbooks began adjusting about a decade ago, so Reid has had trouble covering high lines, but this is not a high line. I thought we’d see Kansas City -3, or maybe even -2.5.

The 49ers are favored, which is suspicious. The public doesn’t seem to think so, however, as there is massive action on Kansas City. And why wouldn’t there be? The Chiefs are 5-0, while the 49ers are 3-3. Betting Kansas City is incredibly easy.

I’m going to be on San Francisco. The 49ers are also coming off extra rest because they played on Thursday. They have some holes defensively, but they should be able to stop what the Chiefs are doing. For example, the 49ers are strong versus tight ends and slot receivers, which is where Kansas City tends to attack.

It should be noted that the Chiefs aren’t as good as their record says. They’re unbeaten, but they easily could have lost to the Bengals and Falcons. They also had issues beating the Chargers despite going against a team missing half of its roster and the quarterback being hobbled. The Chiefs crushed the Saints, but New Orleans is not a good team. The 49ers are better. In fact, the EPA numbers have the 49ers as better than the Chiefs.

I won’t be betting thi sgame because I worry about Kyle Shanahan choking in a big game, plus doing so requires Mahomes to lose outright, but the 49ers seem like the right play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No real injury updates, so I doubt I’ll be betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: No update here. Jauan Jennings is out, but Ricky Pearsall can step in for him.

PLAYER PROP BET: Tight ends have destroyed the Chiefs all year, dating back to Week 1 when Isaiah Likely went nuts. George Kittle should have a great game. The best number is over 51.5 -113 at FanDuel.

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TEASER: I’m teasing Lions +8 with Chiefs +8. Both underdogs are likely to keep their games close. If the Lions +8 covers, I will try to middle with 49ers -2.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp money is coming in on the 49ers, but we’ve taken the Chiefs on a teaser.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned, the sharps are on the 49ers. It looks like the first leg of our teaser (Lions +8) will win, so we’re going to try to middle it with 49ers -2 at half the unit count. The best line is -2 -112 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -2.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

The Chiefs are a huge public underdog.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 85% (129,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 89-24 SU, 62-49 ATS (48-36 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Andy Reid is 18-11 ATS off a bye.

Opening Line: 49ers -2.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 76 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers just enjoyed his best game as a Jet, but it didn’t matter. New York still found a new way to lose, of course. Their kicker missed two easy field goals in a three-point result, while the team as a whole committed 110 yards’ worth of penalties, including one infraction that negated a touchdown. Garrett Wilson also dropped a ball in the end zone. Despite all of this, New York lost by only three points.

The Jets moved the ball aerially against a tough pass defense, and I think they’ll have similar success this week. The Steelers are known for having a terrific defense, but they’ve allowed plenty of big performances to opposing No. 1 receivers. Despite the drop, Wilson appeared to develop better chemistry with Rodgers, so that should continue in this game. Of course, the trade for Davante Adams will have a big impact as well. It’ll be extremely difficult to defend the Jets now that they have both Adams and Wilson.

The Steelers are much better against the run than the pass, so they won’t struggle everywhere. Breece Hall will have a much tougher matchup than the one he enjoyed Monday. Still, Hall could do some damage as a receiver out of the backfield. This was one area in which the Jets could have attacked the Bills, but they failed to establish Hall as a receiving threat outside of one big play in the first quarter.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I couldn’t believe what I saw on Sunday. Najee Harris had looked like a 300-pound running back during numerous games this season, but he finally showed some explosive running ability at Las Vegas. Granted, this was an easy matchup against a team that appeared to have given up, but Harris hadn’t produced in positive matchups prior to this one.

This is another plus matchup for Harris, but the Jets should be able to handle the run much better in this game. The Jets will be able to stack the box and clamp down on Harris that way. They allowed quite a few long runs to Ray Davis on Monday night, but just really during the early portions of the game before clamping down on the rush late in the game. I don’t think stopping Harris will be much of an issue.

Justin Fields would have been able to pick up some first downs on the ground like Allen did, but the Steelers will reportedly start Russell Wilson instead, which seems like a poor decision. Despite all the ridiculous pass interference penalties that we saw on Monday night, Wilson has a very tough matchup against a secondary that can erase his only viable downfield threat, George Pickens, via Sauce Gardner. Wilson will have to look elsewhere, which is a problem because all of his other receivers are awful.

RECAP: This is a must-win game for the Jets. They’ve dropped three consecutive games, including Monday night’s loss to the Bills. If they fall to Pittsburgh, they’ll be 2-5. Winning here will turn their season around. The front office seemed to agree, as indicated by their trade for Adams.

The Steelers, meanwhile, are coming off a blowout victory. This wasn’t going to bode well for Tomlin when he was favored in this game, but the dynamics have changed with the trade. The Jets are now favored, so Tomlin will fall into his familiar role as an underdog.

I’m going to pass on this game. As talented as Adams is, his presence may remove some of the desperation I thought the Jets would have after losing Monday night, and I hate fading Tomlin when he’s getting points.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: One thing I forgot to mention is that the Steelers may not have their center, Zach Frazier. They’ve already been without two offensive linemen, so losing a third would be brutal. I’ve thought about this, and I was wrong about the mindset of these teams. I’m going to bet three units on the Jets.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jets will probably be without two cornerbacks, but I don’t think it’ll matter against the Steelers. Zach Frazier being sidelined is a bigger factor. The Steelers will get Alex Highsmith back, but they’re a team that got outgained by 200 yards against the Cowboys at home a couple of years ago.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Greg Zuerlein owes us one. I like betting over field goals for teams I believe will win because they’re more likely to kick on fourth down in the second half. Pittsburgh is second in red-zone defense, so Zuerlein will have plenty of chances to redeem himself. The best line is over 1.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

I’m also going to bet Breece Hall over receiving yards. The Steelers have gone against three receiving backs this year: Bijan Robinson, Javonte Williams, and Rico Dowdle. They generated 43, 47, and 27 receiving yards. The best number is over 25.5 -115 at BetMGM.

I’m going to toss Hall over receiving yards into a three-leg parlay on BetMGM, which is offering a 25-percent parlay odds boost. I’m going to add George Pickens under 52.5 receiving yards and Najee Harris under 53.5 rushing yards. Harris didn’t top 42 rushing yards in either of his losses, while Pickens has to deal with Sauce Gardner. This $25 parlay pays $157.94 at BetMGM.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Some -2.5s are popping up. If I see the momentum creeping toward -3, I may lock this in when I do my late afternoon updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I like the Jets a lot, and I want to put a fourth unit on them. Unfortunately, all the -2s are gone. In fact, DraftKings has -3 listed. The sharps have moved this line up. I’m not even seeing a -2.5 -110 available anywhere. The best line is -2.5 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -1.

Computer Model: Steelers -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 57% (100,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Aaron Rodgers is 130-91 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 39-23 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Mike Tomlin is 59-34 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Steelers -1.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Clear, 59 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: There’s no stopping the Ravens. They’ve been on fire the past four games, thanks mostly to their rushing attack. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry have trampled every opponent they’ve battled since Week 3. This has opened great passing opportunities for Jackson, who had a great connection going with Zay Flowers last week.

Things won’t go as smoothly for the Ravens on Monday night. The Buccaneers are one of the better teams at stopping the run. They’ve clamped down on ground attacks whenever Vita Vea has been on the field this year. Vea and company won’t completely stymie Henry, but they’ll be able to slow him down enough to force Jackson into more passing situations.

It should be noted that Jackson has a nice matchup as a passer. Tampa Bay’s secondary has issues, especially with Jamel Dean suffering an injury last week. However, the Buccaneers get a fair amount of pressure on the quarterback, and Baltimore doesn’t pass protect well with its new offensive line. Jackson could be forced into some turnovers, assuming that he won’t be able to lean on Henry as usual.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The offensive line isn’t the only issue the Ravens have. They also struggle to cover outside receivers and tight ends. They miss Patrick Queen, and their cornerbacks aren’t very good. This is something some of their recent opponents couldn’t exploit, but the Buccaneers will be able to do so.

The Buccaneers have a pair of talented tackles with Luke Goedeke returning last week. The front will give Baker Mayfield ample time to throw, and Mayfield will be able to deliver strikes to his two talented receivers. Cade Otton also figures to have a solid performance, much like Zach Ertz did versus Baltimore last week.

As bad as the Ravens are against the pass, they’re even better against the run. The Buccaneers were able to get some great games out of Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker last week, but that won’t happen against Baltimore’s stalwart defensive front.

RECAP: If you ask most people what they thought about this spread, you’d probably hear that it’s about right, or even a bit short of what it should be. Most of the public action is on the Ravens, after all. Can you blame average bettors for wagering this way? The Ravens have won four in a row. They destroyed the Cowboys and Bills. They just beat everyone’s favorite darling Redskins. Of course, they should be favored by more than 3.5 points!

Yet, that couldn’t be further from the truth. The Ravens are an overrated team. They do some things extremely well, but they have some liabilities. They struggle to pass protect, they can’t get after the quarterback consistently, and they are poor at covering outside receivers. The Buccaneers can exploit these weaknesses. They are also built to slow down Henry.

My numbers on this game are radically different. I have the Ravens at -2 according to my personal ratings, while the EPA numbers think this spread should be Tampa Bay -2. I trust either of these spreads more than Baltimore -3.5, which seems ridiculous.

I’m obviously going to be on the Buccaneers. This is great value that I can’t pass up.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: These teams haven’t practiced yet, so I’ll have an update on Saturday.

SATURDAY NOTES: Mike Evans missed practice twice with a hamstring, but he said he plans on playing.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Mike Evans will play, but may not be 100 percent. Vita Vea was added to the injury report. I’m dropping the projected unit count.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: We’re still awaiting Vita Vea’s status. His designation will dictate how much I’ll be betting on the game because he’s key in slowing down Derrick Henry.

PLAYER PROP BET & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I love Zay Flowers to go over his receiving yardage total. He’s had 91-plus yards in the past three games that weren’t blowout wins resulting from Derrick Henry’s insane rushing. The Buccaneers are weak to No. 1 receivers. The best number is over 62.5 -110 at FanDuel.

I’m tossing in Flowers’ over receiving yards with Mark Andrews over 28.5 receiving yards, Mike Evans over 57.5 receiving yards, and Rachaad White under 25.5 rushing yards. Tampa Bay also struggles to cover tight ends, and Andrews has been more involved lately. The Ravens are very weak to outside receivers as well. And White is not 100 percent. The Buccaneers have said they want to go to a three-man committee anyway, and the Ravens don’t allow anything on the ground. This $25 parlay pays $322.59 on FanDuel because of a 30-percent odds boost. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Mike Evans and Vita Vea will play. I’m going to stick with a bet on the Buccaneers, but only two units because they may not be 100 percent. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is +4.5 -105 at ESPNBet. I don’t normally like to promote ESPNBet, but that’s where the best line is.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -4.5.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 70% (293,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Road Team is 136-95 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 42-72 ATS at home in the previous 114 instances.

Buccaneers are 13-31 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Ravens -4.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Clear, 76 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Arizona, where tonight, the Phoenix Cardinals take on the Phoenix Coyotes. Guys, I’m already bored with this game, so let me vent about these stupid international games. Guys, I remember when football was just an American sport, but now it’s a global sport. This is horrible because foreign people smell. Also, these 9:30 a.m. games are killing me. I used to wake up early to watch Sunday morning cartoons until Mother made me rub her feet. Now, I can’t even do that! Mother has been mad at me that I haven’t rubbed her feet in a while, but I keep telling her that it’s my job to watch football and plan the untimely demise of every enemy team of my Philadelphia Eagles, so I need to work! Do you guys have any issues like that with your mothers?

Emmitt: Thanks, Porom. I cannot disagreement more with you if I did not want to do so. You say football America game, but it have becomed the global game. And a global are that circle you have on the desk that blue spot and green and brown spot. I has been looking at this global for a long time, and I still does not understand what the different colors means. Somebody say that the blue stuff is water, but it do not feel wet to me, and everybody know that water are wet, so how can it be water? That do not make senseis. Also, blue not the color of water. The water that comed out of the pipe in Emmitt house are brown.

Reilly: Emmitt, I think you need to get your pipes cleaned. I would do it, but Mother says it’s too dangerous of a job for me, and she says she likes looking at the plumber’s butt. I don’t know why anyone would like looking at anyone’s butt because poop comes out of it. When poop comes out of my butt, I sometimes have Mother wipe it for me, but she says I’m a big boy now that I’m 73, so I’ll have to start wiping my own butt soon.

Tollefson: Reilly, you are such a wuss. One of the luxuries of having female slaves is that they can wipe your butt for you. Why would I ever dirty these beautiful hands when the female slaves can do it for me? I need these beautiful hands to type up more fake tickets so I can con old people for six figures again.

Reilly: Tolly, I hope you take them for all they’re worth because I hate rich, old people because I’m jealous that they can buy all the Nick Foles bobbleheads they want. Speaking of rich old people, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. Kyler Murray just broke his hram, so he’s out six to eight minutes. I’m joined tonight by Bill Gates. Bill, I didn’t know you were a foreign leader. I would have done research on this, but I just didn’t care enough. Do you have a country?

Bill Gates: Yes, I bought an island off the coast of South Korea, and we are looking to have more games there. Just keep in mind that everyone who comes to my island needs to take an injection of my wonderful vaccine, which is totally safe, trust me.

Charissa Thompson: Hold on, I just listened to an interview for the first time. Did you say more games? So you have games there now?

Bill Gates: Yes, we gather a bunch of kids and have them play children’s games, and then me and a bunch of other rich men wear masks and bet on the kids, and then we get to play with them later. It’s a lot of fun!

Reilly: Hey Bill, I love to play games as long as they’re safe and I won’t get a nose bleed. Can I come to your island? I just need an adult butt wiper to accompany me to the island. President Camel Toe Harris, can you make sure that all Americans get an adult butt wiper with tax dollars?

Kamala Harris: In the last four years, I have been the vice president of the United States. And I have been traveling our country. And I have been listening to folks. And seeking what is possible in terms of common ground. I believe in building in consensus. We are a diverse people. Geographically, regionally, in terms of where we are in our backgrounds. And what the American people do want is leaders who can build consensus. Where we can figure out compromise and understand that it’s not a bad thing as long as you don’t compromise your values to find common sense solutions. And that has been my approach.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala did not answer the question yet again, she dodges so many questions that if she were playing dodgeball, she would be the best dodgeball player anyone has ever seen, but she’s not playing dodgeball, she’s playing politics, and she’s not too good at politics, let me tell you, in fact she is the worst at playing politics, and no one has ever seen anything like it, she didn’t even answer Kevin Reilly’s question, and it was a good question, not the best question we’ve heard, but a good question, and I’ll answer the question because Trump answers all the questions better than anyone could ever answer any question, frankly, and the butt wipers will be available for anyone who has a golden toilet, like Trump, who has a beautiful, golden toilet in his home, the most beautiful golden toilet anyone has ever seen, or at least that’s what I’ve been told, and it’s much more beautiful than Kamala’s toilet, which is probably silver or bronze, probably bronze, frankly, because Kamala has no class, so she can only afford bronze, and not even silver because she’s a total loser and a total disgrace.

Wolfley: DONALD, YOUR GOLDEN TOILET MAY SOUND GREAT TO YOU, BUT THE RICHEST MAN ON OUR HOME PLANET, A SPORK WITH FOOTBALLS FOR EYES AND PLASTIC STRAWS FOR EARS, HAS A PLATINUM TOILET IN HIS MANSION.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! We need to get to the bottom of this. I need an adult butt wiper to go with me to Bill Gates’ island. New Daddy, will you be my adult butt wiper?

Jay Cutler: No, because I need an adult butt wiper, too. I’m too lazy to do it myself, so your mom does it for me.

Reilly: Mother sure knows her way around the toilet in the bathroom, huh?

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about things found in the bathroom, Kevin, which is suitable for a person such as yourself, Kevin. You already touched on toilet, Kevin. How about a sink, Kevin? That’s in the bathroom, too, Kevin. What do you think about showers, Kevin? Why not discuss faucets, Kevin? Take a gander at the tiles on the ground, Kevin. What if you have a hamper in the bathroom, Kevin? And don’t forget about toilet paper, Kevin. Something kids at six learn how to use, Kevin, but you somehow haven’t figured it out at 73, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, WIPING YOUR BUTT IS HARD! I SHOULD BE ABLE TO FIGURE IT OUT BY THE TIME I’M 85! We’ll be back after this!

ARIZONA OFFENSE: As if the Cardinals’ blowout loss to the Packers wasn’t bad enough, they also had to deal with a major absence. Marvin Harrison Jr. suffered a concussion in the second quarter. He wasn’t around to help in the second half, but Arizona couldn’t get anything going for the early portion of the afternoon. Murray had just two completions in the first 27 minutes of the game.

Murray had a very difficult matchup against the Packers, who are sixth in defensive EPA. The Chargers aren’t as good defensively, but they’re in the upper half of the NFL. They defend the run very well and can generate pressure on the quarterback, so they should be able to limit James Conner and apply heat on Murray, who won’t have his top downfield threat.

One area where the Cardinals should have success is when Murray delivers the ball to Trey McBride. The dynamic tight end had a great game last week, and the Chargers typically struggle against opposing tight ends.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: It was unknown how Justin Herbert would look last week. Herbert was limping around after every play in the two games prior to the bye. It wasn’t known if he would be 100 percent, but he looked great against the Broncos. It helped that he had both tackles back from injury to protect him, but Herbert was able to beat an excellent defense.

The Cardinals don’t have an excellent defense. Not even close. Arizona has a leaky secondary and the third-worst pressure rate in the NFL. Herbert will have all the time in the world to locate his weapons.

Arizona is atrocious at stopping the run as well. This is how the Chargers will primarily attack. J.K. Dobbins has been terrific despite coming off a torn Achilles. He’ll have some great runs to set up play-action opportunities for Herbert.

RECAP: The Chargers probably shouldn’t have an issue with the Cardinals. Their defense is outstanding, and if Harrison Jr. is out, as expected, the Cardinals won’t have much offensive firepower to threaten their opponent.

I don’t see a great betting opportunity. I’d like the Chargers if the Cardinals weren’t coming off a blowout loss, but Arizona will be focused more after last week’s disaster. We know that Murray can be aloof with his Call of Duty antics, but after a blowout defeat, there will be more effort from him in this game. Still, I’m not quite sure if it’ll be enough against a superior Charger squad.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As with the other Monday night game, these teams haven’t practiced yet, so I’ll have an update on Saturday.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s been sharp money on the Cardinals, probably because Joey Bosa has yet to practice.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharp money came in on Arizona because Marvin Harrison Jr. cleared concussion protocol. I still have no interest in either side.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: More sharp money on the Cardinals. I still lean toward the Chargers, but this game is a difficult one to handicap.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Excluding Week 3 when he left early with an injury, Trey McBride has eclipsed 53 receiving yards in every game since Week 2. Yet, his receiving yardage prop is only 50.5. The Chargers have a great defense, but they’ve allowed chunks of yardage to tight ends. The best number is over 50.5 receiving yards -110 at FanDuel.

I’m tossing the McBride over receiving yardage prop into a same-game parlay with J.K. Dobbins over 79.5 rushing yards, James Conner under 61.5 rushing yards, and Kyler Murray over 32.5 rushing yards. Arizona is awful versus the run, while the Chargers are No. 2 against it, so that would explain the Dobbins and Conner legs. The last time Murray was blown out, he responded with a game in which he scrambled for 83 yards. This $25 parlay pays $222.16. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Still no bet here, though I’m leaning toward the Chargers. The sharps bet the Cardinals at +2.5, +2, and +1.5. The best line on the Chargers is -1 -110 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -1.

Computer Model: Chargers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 59% (207,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Cardinals are 48-34 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Kyler Murray is 16-9 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.