NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2024 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
2024 NFL Picks: 38-35-3 (-$1,395)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 5 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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Week 4 Analysis: A frustrating week (albeit at 10-4-2) because we were so close to making a ton of money. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Falcons, 3 units (loss): I will admit that we did not deserve to win this game. The Saints outgained the Falcons by 50 yards. However, Atlanta nearly covered when Kirk Cousins hit Darnell Mooney for what was almost a touchdown pass in the final seconds. Cousins overshot Mooney by a bit, so in came Younghoe Koo to help the Falcons win by two instead of 2.5+. We lost this cover by half-a-point as a result. Again, this was not a bad beat, but we couldn’t get some luck to go our way on a big bet for the first time all year.

Texans, 3 units (win): The Texans outgained the Jaguars by 120 yards and one yard per play. Dumb play-calling prevented them from covering, as did a Tim Donaghy moment at the end. The Jaguars tried some laterals as time expired, and Travis Etienne was tackled in his own end zone for a safety to help the Texans cover -5.5. Except, the officials ruled him down at the 1-yard line, citing forward progress being stopped even though Etienne clearly moved forward in the end zone. Such bulls**t. Whoever rigged that result, I hope you’re happy.

Bengals, 5 units (win): The Bengals were up 31-14 at the end of the third quarter, but nearly blew the cover at the end. Phew!

D’Andre Swift under rushing yards units, 3 units (loss): My biggest player prop bet of the year thus far was a loss because of false information. The Bears coaching staff said that Roschon Johnson would be more involved this week after Swift bombed through three weeks. Yet, Swift got most of the work outside of one drive. I will be rooting for these scumbags to be fired ASAP.

Broncos, 4 units (win): We had the Broncos at +8, and they won outright.

Titans, 3 units (win): Will Levis didn’t cost us money for once!

I’m also frustrated because I loved the Raiders and Chargers early in the week, but came off of those picks because of injuries. Yet, both covered (if you had LAC +7.5). I also dropped my Tennessee unit count from five to three because of injuries. Argh!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins didn’t look too great in his first full game without Drew Dalman and Kaleb McGary. Actually, he hasn’t looked good since those two talented offensive linemen left the game in the second quarter of the Sunday night battle versus the Chiefs. The Falcons beat the Saints, but were outgained by 50 yards, mustering 315 net yards against a defense missing Demario Davis and Tyrann Mathieu.

Cousins will be down two offensive linemen against the Buccaneers, who tend to blitz often. This is troubling for Cousins because he is far worse when blitzed. In fact, his completion percentage drops 18 percent when the opposition brings extra pressure!

Cousins was bailed out by the running game last week, but he won’t be so fortunate this time. The Buccaneers have one of the top run defenses in the NFL as long as Vita Vea is on the field. Vea returned last week and helped his team put the clamps on Saquon Barkley. Bijan Robinson doesn’t seem like he’s 100 percent, so his pure talent won’t be able to overcome Vea and Tampa’s front.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Falcons will be relieved to know that they won’t have to deal with much of a running game this week. They had immense issues containing Taysom Hill on Sunday until the quarterback-tight end hybrid suffered an injury midway through the game.

The Buccaneers won’t be able to take advantage of this weakness. The interior of their offensive line run blocks extremely poorly, and the coaching staff gives Rachaad White way too many opportunities.

While the rushing attack won’t work so well, the Buccaneers will at least be able to move the chains aerially. Mike Evans will have to deal with A.J. Terrell, but he’s good enough to overcome any matchup. The big winner, however, will once again be Chris Godwin, who will take advantage of Atlanta’s inability to defend slot receivers.

RECAP: This spread seems to indicate that the Falcons are a good team. They came into the season with lots of hype, which I didn’t exactly buy until the team acquired Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons. I became a believer until the second quarter of the Chiefs game. This is when Atlanta lost Dalman and McGary to injury.

The Falcons are down to key offensive linemen, which hurts their offensive potential. They struggled to move the ball on New Orleans, and the only reason they won is because of two fluky defensive/special teams touchdowns. Had those not transpired, the Falcons would be 1-3 right now, and it’s doubtful that they’d be favored over Tampa Bay.

I’m not a huge fan of the Buccaneers either, but I like them to beat the Falcons. I wish we were getting +3, so this is currently just a lean at the moment.

Our Week 5 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers will be missing Antoine Winfield Jr., Luke Goedeke, and Calijah Kancey, but I still like them as a lean. I’m not going to bet a side, but I like a couple of teasers:

Buccaneers +7.5 & Jets +8.5 (1 Unit)

Buccaneers +7.5 & Bengals +8.5 (1 Unit)

If the Buccaneers cover the +7.5, I will attempt to middle both teasers.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: My favorite prop is Bijan Robinson over receiving yards. Robinson caught five balls for 54 receiving yards in his lone full game against Tampa Bay last year. The Buccaneers blitz at a top-10 frequency, so Kirk Cousins will have to check the ball down to Robinson quite a bit. The best numbers are over 25.5 receiving yards -110 and 40+ receiving yards +235 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

I also think Bucky Irving will score a touchdown. Irving, not Rachaad White, is getting all the goal-line work. I like his numbers to score anytime and first. The best numbers are +180 and +850, respectively, on FanDuel.

The final two legs of this parlay are overs on Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard. The Buccaneers won’t have Jalen McMillan or Trey Palmer tonight, so these two players will be involved more so than usual. The best numbers are over 3.5 receptions for Otton on BetMGM, and over 19.5 receiving yards for Shepard on FanDuel.

I’m going to parlay everything together (save for Robinson 40+ yards and Irving first touchdown). This $25 parlay pays $365 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s tons of public money on the Buccaneers and a bit of sharp action on the Falcons. You can get +3 -120 at Bookmaker if you want Tampa. I have enough money tied up in teasers, so I won’t be betting that even though it’s a bit appealing. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -3.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Public and sharp money on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 76% (336,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Buccaneers have won 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Road Team is 135-94 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Falcons -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: It’s astonishing that people seem to be calling for Sam Darnold to win MVP, and not just because he’s not even the MVP of his own team. Darnold was given up for dead by many after he flopped on numerous teams. When J.J. McCarthy suffered a season-ending injury in August, no one gave the Vikings any chance of reaching the playoffs.

Darnold has been phenomenal thus far because of Justin Jefferson and the elite coaching, but he and his support system will be challenged for the first time in this game. The Jets have one of the top pass defenses in the NFL. The outstanding cornerbacks in the “No Fly Zone” will be able to limit Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The team will also throw some looks at Darnold to fool him. Fortunately for Darnold, he’ll at least have time in the pocket because of his elite offensive line.

Darnold will also be able to lean on Aaron Jones. While the Jets are superb versus the pass, they have been gashed on the ground. Jones doesn’t stay healthy often, but when he does, he’s one of the better running backs in the NFL. He’ll be able to capitalize on the Jets’ poor rush defense.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: This is a battle of two elite defenses, as the Vikings rank No. 1 on this side of the ball. Brian Flores is one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL, and he’s fully capable of confusing quarterbacks.

While Flores has befuddled young quarterbacks like Daniel Jones, Brock Purdy and “No Cookie” Jordan Love this year, he won’t have the same success against Aaron Rodgers, who has been around the block. Rodgers’ biggest issue right now is his lack of chemistry with Garrett Wilson, but the two will find a way to connect at some point this year. I don’t know if it’ll occur this week, but it certainly could. And even if it doesn’t, Rodgers will have plenty of other weapons at his disposal, including Mike Williams, who is seeing an increased workload.

The Jets can also do some damage with their running backs. The Vikings are sixth against the rush, but Breece Hall is capable of going the distance whenever he touches the ball, whether it’s on the ground or through the air.

RECAP: All aboard the Vikings bandwagon! I liked Minnesota early – I’ve picked them to cover the past three weeks – but the hype the team is currently getting is outrageous. There’s crazy talk about Darnold being MVP when he’s not even the MVP of his own team.

The Jets, meanwhile, are being trashed for their loss to the Broncos, but they were not focused as a big favorite with an overseas game on the horizon. The Chiefs lost in a similar spot to the Broncos last year prior to playing Miami in Germany, and then went on to defeat the Dolphins. The Jets will play much better than they did last week, and I like them in this matchup. Rodgers won’t be perplexed by Bowles’ scheme, while Darnold may have issues with a great pass defense.

On top of the matchup edges, we’re also getting line value. The Jets were -1 on the advance spread. This line has moved 3.5 points based off last week’s results, which seems unwarranted. We’re not crossing any key numbers – unless this spread gets to +3, of course – but a movement from -1 to +2.5 is a 7.01-percent marginal difference, which is actually much higher than people think. In other words, an underdog of +2.5 is seven percent more likely to cover at that number than at -1. If you don’t appreciate how colossal seven percent is, think of the difference between winning 50 percent of your bets and 57 percent of your bets over the long term. You go from being a loser to an excellent NFL bettor.

At any rate, I like the Jets, and I was pleased to see that the early sharp money agrees with me. We’re also getting Rodgers off a loss, which has been a huge winning formula over the years.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sam Darnold was placed on the injury report with a knee. He was full in practice, but it might be something because we’ve seen neferious things like this in the past from some teams. As mentioned earlier, this pick is included in a teaser with the Buccaneers.

PLAYER PROPS: The Vikings blitz at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers will have to throw the ball quickly, so he’ll target Tyler Conklin and Breece Hall heavily. I like the Conklin prop more. The best number is over 23.5 -120 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s no real injury news on this game, aside from some recently injured Jets still being doubtful. I still like New York, and so do the sharps.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going to parlay the Conklin receiving prop with Sam Darnold over 0.5 interceptions, Greg Zuerlein over 1.5 field goals, and over 40.5 points. Darnold has thrown interceptions in three of four games, and this is a tough matchup for him. I like going with the winning kicker, given that they’re more likely to kick field goals in the fourth quarter. And given that both offensive lines are stout, I think this game will go over the total. This $25 parlay pays $156.25 on BetMGM.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As I always say ahead of these horrible 9:30 a.m. games, f**k Roger Goodell. This is a public-sharp split, where the public is on the Vikings, while the sharps like the Jets. I was really hoping for a viable +3. Unfortunately, the best I can see is +3 -126 at Bookmaker, which is not a good deal when +2.5 -103 is being offered at the same sportsbook. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -1.

Computer Model: Vikings -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Public on the Vikings, sharps on the Jets.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 72% (371,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Aaron Rodgers is 130-89 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 30-19 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 39-21 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Vikings -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Rain, 59 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 3-8 ATS through three weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Cowboys -5.5

Vikings +2.5

Rams +3

Bengals -5.5

Saints +2.5

Bills +3

The public didn’t get crushed for once, but a 3-3 week is a winner for the house once again. The public is now 6-11.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Vikings -2.5

Raiders +3

Cowboys +2.5

Ravens -2.5

Seahawks -6

We’ll see if the public continues to lose money this week.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Though the Panthers lost last week, we at least saw that the decision to bench Bryce Young in favor of Andy Dalton didn’t provide a fluky result. Andy Dalton threw a poor interception against the Bengals, but otherwise had success moving the chains for most of the afternoon. Carolina was able to keep pace with Cincinnati until the third quarter.

The revenge tour for Dalton continues, though it’ll be a tougher matchup for him this week. The Bears are sixth in defensive EPA, and they generate the fourth-most pressure in the NFL. Luckily for Dalton, this is where the offseason moves the Panthers made will help him. Carolina spent big bucks on the offensive line, and Dalton has been shielded well in his two starts. This should continue to be the case. If so, Dalton will be able to connect with his talented receivers consistently, given that Chicago has some liabilities in the secondary.

The Bears are also weaker versus the run than the pass, so Carolina’s new offensive linemen, Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, will be able to generate some nice rushing lanes for Chuba Hubbard, who has improved with Dalton. Chicago isn’t terrible versus the rush, but ranks right in the middle of the pack at 17th in EPA.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: While Carolina’s offense was able to maintain success in Dalton’s second start, the defense completely collapsed. Already down Derrick Brown and D.J. Wonnum, the Panthers lost Shaq Thompson and Josey Jewell to injury versus the Bengals. The linebacking corps was the one strength Carolina had remaining, but that’s not the case anymore.

Given the injuries to the front seven, D’Andre Swift projects well. This, however, doesn’t mean that he’ll perform on a high level. Swift had a nice game versus the Rams, but he’s been awful this year. Among starting running backs, there are only four players with a worse yards-per-carry-after-contact average than Swift. Chicago is also one of the worst run-blocking teams in the NFL.

I’m not sold on Swift thriving, and I will say the same about Caleb Williams. The No. 1 overall pick has shown some flashes of brilliance, but he’s also been erratic. Carolina’s cornerbacks aren’t that bad, so it’s not like Williams’ talented receivers have this incredible matchup.

RECAP: I can always tell when a team is overrated based on their fan reactions are to where I place them in my NFL Power Rankings. Two years ago, Viking fans were down my throat because I never put their team in the top eight despite all of the wins Minnesota accumulated. The 2022 Vikings turned out to be a paper tiger. Last year, Eagles fans hated me because I doubted their 10-1 squad. We saw what happened with them.

The Bears are the early leader for most overrated team in 2024. They’ve been outgained in three of their four games. The Titans doubled them in yardage, while the Rams beat them out by 100 yards. The defense has been very good, although it hasn’t really been tested outside of the Houston contest. The offense, conversely, has lots of problems. Williams is very inconsistent, while the offensive line really struggles to block.

The Panthers and Bears are very close in my ratings, so this -4 line is way off to me. I think Chicago should be -2, while the EPA numbers say this line should be -2.5. Furthermore, the Bears could be very distracted. They just won, and after this game against a stupid Carolina team, they have to head overseas. Favorites of -4 or more heading into Europe are 12-19 against the spread. We just saw the Jets lose outright to the Broncos in a similar spot.

I love Carolina this week. This will be a five-unit play, and it might be my October NFL Pick of the Month if the injury report is favorable.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Diontae Johnson or Josey Jewell in practice Wednesday is not something I wanted to see. The Panthers remain a top play, but Johnson being sidelined would change things for me.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was worried about some Panther injuries. The good news is that Diontae Johnson will play, while Damien Lewis will return from last week’s absence. The bad news is that the Panthers have cluster injuries with Shaq Thompson and Josey Jewell both being sidelined. The Panthers have nothing else at linebacker, so they could be exposed here. I can’t make them my October NFL Pick of the Month with these injuries, but I still like them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m dropping the unit count to two because I’m very concerned about Carolina’s inability to defend the middle of the field with the two primary linebackers sidelined. I still think the Bears could be unfocused here with a London game coming up. The sharps haven’t taken a side. The best line is +4 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Bears fly to London next week.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -3.5.

Computer Model: Bears -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Slight lean on the Bears.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 63% (112,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bears -3.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Slight chance of thunderstorms, 74 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

I always ask what I got wrong in my NFL Power Rankings because I use the rankings to make my own personal lines when handicapping NFL games. I truly want to know what I got wrong, and there is often constructive discussions being held in these threads.

That is not the case in this instance. Johnny Drama was very emotional about how low I ranked the Bears. He’s so emotional that he outed himself as failing to understand what defenses have to do with outgaining the opposition.

I quote tweeted him, which made him even more upset and defensive. Poor guy.

Here’s his reply to that:

This is like arguing with a child or a simpleton. It would be very frustrating, but I get to turn it into free content!

Anyway, I quote tweeted him again:

I can only assume that this Johnny Dumbass guy spends his days fingerpainting and gluing popsicle sticks together.

Here’s his final attempt to win the argument:

I quite literally just threw his argument back at him, and he had no response. Sad.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens have had quite the offensive explosion over the past two weeks. They struggled to move the ball against the Raiders in Week 2, but they rebounded nicely following that loss. They’ve generated 425-plus yards of offense versus their previous two opponents despite taking the fourth quarter off in large part.

This production was accomplished mostly on the ground, as Lamar Jackson has thrown just 33 total times the past two weeks. He’ll have to air it out more often against teams that can stop the rush, but Cincinnati doesn’t exactly fit that description. The Bengals had one good game versus the run when they clamped down on Brian Robinson Jr. in Week 3, but they’ve otherwise been gashed. They sorely miss D.J. Reader, and his absence will be felt in this contest.

It should be noted that the Bengals did a decent job of limiting Jackson’s scrambles last year, holding him to 54 rushing yards in both matchups. Jackson will be in trouble if he’s forced into throwing in this game, given that his offensive line really struggles to pass protect as a result of three offseason departures.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Baltimore’s offensive line was one concern I had with the team heading into this season. The cornerbacks were the other, and they were exposed in the first two weeks by Xavier Worthy and Davante Adams. Their previous two opponents didn’t have any outside threats. CeeDee Lamb plays in the slot, while Khalil Shakir was the best Buffalo had to offer.

The Bengals obviously have the weaponry to exploit Baltimore’s outside cornerbacks. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins had slow starts to their seasons, but they were both excellent last week against the Panthers. They’ll continue to thrive in this favorable matchup.

One thing the Bengals will not be able to do is run the ball. They’ve gotten some nice carries out of Chase Brown recently, but the Ravens currently rank seventh in EPA rush defense.

RECAP: This is a no-brainer for many. As of Tuesday afternoon, four-fifths of all bets are coming in on Baltimore. This is expected, given that the Ravens just demolished the Cowboys and Bills on national TV.

In winning like this, the Ravens have become overrated. They still have some glaring problems that their previous two opponents couldn’t exploit. They struggle against the pass, while their offensive line is still meshing after losing three starters to free agency. Chase and Higgins can obviously exploit the secondary, while Cincinnati’s talented pass-rushing duo can apply pressure on Jackson.

Despite the Bengals having these advantages, they are home underdogs. This would not be the case had Burrow not lost a fumble versus the Chiefs and beat them. We’re getting good value with the Bengals, who should be favored, so I like them for a considerable wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was hoping for a +3 to appear, but that might be a pipe dream. There’s already sharp action on Cincinnati at +2.5, so I doubt we’ll see a +3 because the pros would really hammer that number. As mentioned earlier, I’m including the Bengals in a teaser with the Buccaneers.

PLAYER PROPS: I have the urge to short sell Mark Andrews down to zero. He appears old and decrepit, and he’s running fewer routes than Isaiah Likely. The Bengals have a poor defense, but they’ve handled tight ends well this year. The best number is under 25.5 receiving yards -104 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no major injuries of note unless you want to count Sheldon Rankins for the Bengals. I still think Cincinnati is a great play, though I wish we could get +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Bengals, which is hardly a surprise. I was hoping for a viable +3, but I can’t find one. The best I see is +3 -133 at Bookmaker. It pains me to say this, but the best line is +2.5 -107 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -1.

Computer Model: Ravens -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Slight lean on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 60% (137,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Ravens have won the last 2 meetings.

Joe Burrow is 38-18 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-6 ATS otherwise).

Opening Line: Ravens -1.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Sunny, 81 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: The inexperience Josh Allen has with his receivers not named Khalil Shakir finally came back to bite the Bills last week in an embarrassing blowout. The Ravens had a great game plan against the Bills, who were befuddled the entire evening.

This is an easier matchup for Allen. Though the Texans generate pressure on the quarterback, they don’t do anything else well on this side of the ball. They’ve really struggled to cover, and that includes Derek Stingley Jr. Perhaps this will be the week that Allen starts to gel with his receivers.

The Texans also happen to be sub par against the run, ranking 22nd against it. James Cook couldn’t find any room versus Baltimore’s stout rush defense last week, but he’ll perform much better in this contest.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans haven’t been as explosive on this side of the ball as many thought they would be. Bobby Slowik was guilty of some poor play-calling last week, opting to hand the ball off to Cam Akers on early downs far too often despite battling a pass-funnel Jacksonville defense. Perhaps Slowik’s thinking is that he wanted to protect C.J. Stroud, whose offensive line hasn’t performed up to par this season.

Part of the reason for this is that Laremy Tunsil is hobbled. He missed 20 snaps last week because he had to take a break. Meanwhile, the guards have been poor. There will be opportunities for the Bills to generate a consistent pass rush on Stroud.

Stroud won’t be able to capitalize on poor cornerback play like he did last week either. The Bills actually defend the outside extremely well with their talented cornerbacks, Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford. They’re weak over the middle of the field because of their linebacker injuries, but the Texans haven’t been attacking the middle of the field very effectively this year.

RECAP: This game has two angles I like. One was prevalent twice last week. Whenever one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL suffers a loss, that piques my interest as long as he’s not favored by more than a touchdown. This is because top quarterbacks tend to play at their best to overcome adversity. Allen, like all other great quarterbacks, has a winning spread record coming off a defeat (11-7 ATS).

The other angle is backing a good team coming off an embarrassing loss. The Bills were humiliated coming off a national TV loss to the Ravens. They’ll be at their best in this game.

I wish Buffalo had talented receivers to take advantage of Houston’s secondary problems. That’s my only hangup here, as the Bills pass rush should be able to dominate the Texans’ offensive line, which has struggled the past couple of weeks with Tunsil being hobbled with an injury.

I will be betting a few units on the Bills. This has the potential to be a top play depending on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It looks like Terrel Bernard and Taron Johnson will be back for the Bills, which is a huge boon for their ability to cover the middle of the field. Conversely, the Texans may be without Laremy Tunsil, who missed Wednesday’s practice. Joe Mixon was also sidelined Wednesday, so if he misses this game, Bobby Slowik will waste more firs and second downs running with the anemic Cam Akers.

PLAYER PROPS: Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is a weird number. He’s become the forgotten man in the offense, as he’s cleared 21 receiving yards just once. It’ll only get worse with Tank Dell returning this week. The Bills have been solid against tight ends except for Jonnu Smith’s weird performance in Week 2. Tre McBride was even limited to 30 yards in Week 1. The Bills will be better over the middle of the field with players returning from injury. The best number is under 26.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills flipped from being a one-point favorite to a one-point underdog because of their injuries. Khalil Shakir, Ed Oliver, Taylor Rapp, and Ambassador Von Miller will all be out. This is unfortunate, but none of these are cluster injuries. Plus, at least one of Terrel Bernard or Taron Johnson could return to action. My projected wager continues to be three units on Buffalo.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bills will get Terrel Bernard back for this game, which is a nice boost for the defense. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is +1 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bills.

The Bills are coming off an embarrassing loss on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -1.

Computer Model: Bills -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Lots of late money on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 74% (128,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Josh Allen is 11-7 ATS off a loss since his second season.

Opening Line: Bills -1.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Anthony Richardson suffered an injury last week, returned to the game, and then got hurt again on an immediate scramble. He eschewed the blue tent and just went into the locker room. And yet, it didn’t matter at all as far as the current game was concerned because Joe Flacco was a suitable replacement. In fact, it could be argued that he was an upgrade. Obviously, Flacco can’t run like Richardson can, but he was far more accurate and was able to involve Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs, which is something Richardson struggled to do through three games.

It’s unclear who will start in this game, but as far as the matchup is concerned, Flacco should be the preferred choice. Jacksonville’s primary defensive weakness is the secondary. With top cornerback Tyson Campbell injured, the Jaguars can’t cover anyone. The Colts should want an accurate quarterback to expose Jacksonville’s secondary. The Jaguars can get after the quarterback, but Richardson’s mobility won’t be needed because Indianapolis has a top-tier offensive line.

Richardson wasn’t the only member of Indianapolis’ backfield to suffer an injury. Jonathan Taylor injured his ankle, so he’ll miss a couple of games at the very least. The Jaguars are stronger versus the run than the pass, and while Taylor could overcome this difficult matchup, his backup, Trey Sermon, will not be able to do so.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars have been a mess on this side of the ball. Trevor Lawrence has regressed under Doug Pederson, much like Carson Wentz did following Philadelphia’s Super Bowl victory. He’s not seeing the field clearly, and he’s not capable of connecting with his receivers on deep throws.

Lawrence will have an easy matchup this week because the Colts are missing their top cornerback, but he also had a great opportunity to snap out of his funk last week and couldn’t do so. It doesn’t help Lawrence that he’s protected poorly. Despite the DeForest Buckner injury, the Colts are in the middle of the pack in pressure rate.

Give Lawrence’s struggles, the Jaguars will hope to run the ball, perhaps with Tank Bigsby, who has out-performed Travis Etienne on the ground. The Colts were gashed on the ground by the Packers in Week 2, but despite this, they currently rank 11th in rush defense EPA.

RECAP: It’s difficult to handicap this game right now because Richardson’s status is unknown. I don’t think there’s a difference between Richardson and Flacco as far as the point spread is concerned, but if Richardson attempts to play while injured, that could really hurt Indianapolis. Conversely, the players may step up for Flacco, knowing that they’ll have to try harder with their backup.

I don’t plan on betting this game at the moment, though I’ll consider a small wager on Jacksonville if Richardson plays despite being limited throughout the week. I’ll be on the Colts for no units if it’s Flacco.

One concern I have in backing the Jaguars is that Doug Pederson blamed his players during last week’s post-game press conference, so there’s a chance the team could quit on him.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Josh Allen may miss this game with a concussion. His absence would be enormous, though it’s worth noting that the sharps bet on the Jaguars to push this line from -2.5 to -3.

SATURDAY NOTES: A few major updates. First, Anthony Richardson was limited all week and is listed as questionable. However, Joe Flacco was taking first-team reps all week, so I’ll be surprised if Richardson plays. The Jaguars are much less appealing if Flacco plays, so this will almost certainly be a non-play unless Richardson gets the nod. Second, Josh Allen was DNP-limited-limited with his concussion this week. It’s unclear if he’ll be able to take the field. Third, both teams have some glaring injuries. There’s a chance the Colts could be without two offensive linemen. The inactives list is going to be very interesting, and it may unearth a potential bet for us.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Joe Flacco will start this game. He won’t have Jonathan Taylor or Ryan Kelly, but Braden Smith, who was questionable, will play. The sharps have pounded the Jaguars up to -3.5, but I’d still side with the Colts. The best line is +3.5 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

Will the Jaguars quit on Doug Pederson?

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -2.5.

Computer Model: Colts -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Slight lean on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 63% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

History: Home Team has won 12 of the last 13 meetings.

Jaguars are 15-30 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Likely rain, 80 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: What genius plan will Mike McDaniel concoct this week? Two weeks ago, he thought making Alec Ingold the focal point of his offense was a great idea. On Monday, he started Tyler Huntley despite Huntley not having any familiarity with his teammates. What will McDaniel do this week?

If Tua Tagovailoa would be available, this would be a terrific matchup for Miami. The Patriots have the top pass-funnel defense in the NFL, and Miami would be able to exploit that with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Perhaps Huntley will be better with a week of practice – albeit with one fewer day of practice – but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

If Huntley isn’t more effective this week, the Dolphins won’t produce much on this side of the ball. New England is much better versus the run, and De’Von Achane isn’t being given any lanes to rush through because of Miami’s offensive line woes.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Speaking of offensive line woes, the Patriots can’t block at all. Jacoby Brissett is being treated like a rag doll in the backfield. Some are calling for Drake Maye to start, but it would be detrimental to his career if he were given the David Carr treatment.

The Dolphins could be down one of their top pass rushers, as Jaelan Phillips had to leave the Monday night game early. If he’s out, Brissett may have some time to breathe. The problem though is that he doesn’t have any receivers who can separate. Demario Douglas is his best bet in the slot, but his low average depth of target isn’t going to burn any defenses.

The Patriots would love to run the ball, but the Dolphins are fifth in rush defense EPA. I wouldn’t expect much out of Rhamondre Stevenson, except for perhaps a fumble. Stevenson has fumbled in every single game this year.

RECAP: If these Dolphins were battling last year’s Patriots, I’d really like New England. I love fading backup quarterbacks against top defenses. The Patriots, under Bill Belichick last year, had one of the league’s best stop units despite missing Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez.

These Patriots are much different. Belichick is gone, and so is the elite defense. The Patriots are 25th in defensive EPA, so they don’t have any sort of edge over Huntley.

Backing Huntley, however, isn’t very appealing either. Honestly, I have no idea what to do with this game. Both teams are horrible. I have them 31st and 32nd in my NFL Power Rankings. I have the Dolphins 31st, so I’ll side with them, but this is my least-confident pick of the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jaelan Phillips was ruled out for the season. With a diminished pass rush, Miami may have some issues against the Patriots. I thought about changing my pick, but I don’t think I can quite pull the trigger.

PLAYER PROPS: De’Von Achane’s rushing yards total is way too high. He had a great Week 2 against a depleted Buffalo defense, but he hasn’t exceeded 30 rushing yards in any other game. His run blocking sucks, and I’m not convinced that he’s healthy. The Patriots have the No. 1 pass funnel in the NFL, so that won’t help Achane. The best number is under 55.5 rushing yards -115 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: I can’t believe I’m doing this. I didn’t think I would bet this game all week, but here we are. I’m on the Dolphins.

You might be wondering how I could possibly like the Dolphins, given how much of a s**t show their offense has been since Tua Tagovailoa got hurt. It’s been bad, but they’ve also played two teams ranked in the top 10 of defensive EPA. The Titans and Seahawks are seventh and ninth, respectively. The Patriots are 25th. New England has the No. 1 pass funnel defense in the NFL, and the Dolphins have Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and a returning Odell Beckham Jr. And yes, Tyler Huntley is the quarterback, but remember that backup quarterbacks tend to do well against non-elite defenses.

And holy crap, the Patriots have so many offensive line injuries. David Andrews and Caedan Wallace both landed on injured reserve. Cole Strange was already out. Michael Jordan, Nick Leverett, Vederian Lowe, and Layden Robinson are all questionable. Meanwhile, the Dolphins will get Terron Armstead and Kendall Fuller back from injury.

Maybe I’m overthinking things, but all signs point to the Dolphins bouncing back from a blowout defeat on national TV. This will be a three-unit wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Good news, bad news for the Patriots. The good news is that all of their questionable offensive linemen will play, though it’s unclear how healthy they are. The bad news is Kyle Dugger is out, which means they’ll be down their top two safeties against Miami’s receivers. The sharps have bet the Dolphins, though not to a great degree. The best line is -1.5 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -1.5.

Computer Model: Dolphins -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Slight lean on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 61% (77,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

History: Dolphins have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Dolphins are 28-19 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Opening Line: Patriots -1.

Opening Total: 35.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 63 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: You’ve also heard the stat by now. Jayden Daniels has the highest completion percentage of any quarterback through four games of any season. This includes 2007 Tom Brady and vintage Drew Brees. Amazing.

Daniels could be known as a top-five quarterback very soon, but we’ll see how he fares against a tough defense first. Daniels hasn’t battled a top-20 EPA defense yet, as the Buccaneers, Giants, Bengals and Cardinals rank 22nd, 21st, 27th, and 30th, respectively. The Browns are 12th. They have Myles Garrett, who just terrorized Gardner Minshew last week despite not being 100 percent. The Browns have a top-10 pressure rate, and Washington’s tackles aren’t very good. This should be a concern.

The Browns are also fairly decent at stopping the run. Daniels would love to turn to Brian Robinson Jr. in the first difficult matchup of his career, but Robinson won’t find much running room.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Deshaun Watson sucks, but we can at least say that he had his best performance of the season last week. He had a miscommunication with Amari Cooper that negated a big play, but he didn’t hurt his team otherwise. Watson also missed out on an 80-yard touchdown to Cooper because of a penalty.

It’s unclear if this was a fluky result or an upward trend. If it’s the latter, Watson will continue to improve in this contest because the Redskins have the worst secondary in the NFL. Cooper should make amends for last week’s performance. It will obviously help if Watson can get at least one of his tackles to play a full game for the first time all year.

The Browns will also be able to establish the run in this game. The Redskins are better versus the rush than the pass, but only by default. They rank 25th against ground attacks, so Jerome Ford should be able to put together a nice performance.

RECAP: The Redskins are probably the most overrated team in the NFL not named the Bears. This is no shade at Daniels, who is incredible. This only has to do with their defense, which is ranked dead last in the NFL. I had one person on Twitter tell me that Washington’s defense doesn’t matter because Daniels is so good. That should tell you how overrated the Redskins have become.

My answer to that person was that the defense will matter when the Redskins battle a team with a good defense. Washington has gone against teams ranked 21st or worst defensively in EPA. The Browns are 12th. Garrett will be able to disrupt what Washington is doing, so the Redskins will need to be better on the other side of the ball.

I know that Cleveland’s offense isn’t much of a threat, but Watson played his best game of the season last week. Sure, he lost, but Cooper made a lot of mistakes, so I like him to rebound in his easiest matchup of the year.

The Browns look appealing. I can’t bet a lot on them if both tackles are out again, but if at least one returns, we’re looking at a wager of four units or more. The advance spread was +1, yet it’s +3.5 now. That’s quite the overreaction!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jedrick Wills, Jack Conklin, and Ethan Pocic all missed Wednesday’s practice. This is not a promising start to the week. If all three blockers are out – in addition to Wyatt Teller, who is on injured reserve – I won’t have interest in betting on Cleveland.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ethan Pocic will play. As for Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin, both were DNP-limited-limited this week. The Browns may decide to play at least one of them because one of the backup tackles, James Hudson, has been ruled out. I’m planning on a three-unit bet on the Browns unless both Wills and Conklin are out.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was hoping both Cleveland tackles would play. Jack Conklin is out, but Jedrick Willis will return. I still like the Browns for three units, though the sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is the standard +3 -110 at a couple of sportsbooks, including BetMGM and FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -1.

Computer Model: Redskins -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Washington: 55% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Redskins are 21-33 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Redskins are 10-27 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 since 2000. ???

Opening Line: Redskins -1.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 72 degrees. Light wind.