NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2024 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
2024 NFL Picks: 38-35-3 (-$1,395)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 5 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

Video of the Week: The election is coming up, and if you’re as dumb as some of the people in this video, you probably shouldn’t vote:

My answer would have been: “He sniffed little girls.”

DENVER OFFENSE: I almost want to make a t-shirt with the following text on it: “7-of-15, -7 yards.” That was Bo Nix’s stat line at the half versus the Jets. Granted, he was playing in heavy rain, but it was an ugly showing by the Broncos.

This will be an easier matchup for the Broncos, but not a substantial one if Maxx Crosby is able to play. Crosby was sidelined last week for the first time in his career. It’ll be shocking if he misses a second game. If he can take the field, he’ll make it impossible for Nix to remain in the pocket. Then again, Nix mostly tosses ineffective checkdowns, so it may not make that much of a difference.

The Raiders are weaker to the run than the pass, which is confusing because they were second versus the rush last year and added Christian Wilkins in the offseason. Their inability to stop ground attacks won’t be a factor in this matchup because the Broncos really struggle to run the ball.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Broncos had some personnel question marks on this side of the ball heading into the season, but they’ve answered them thus far. They rank fourth in defensive EPA after an impressive showing last week versus the Jets, albeit in the rain.

If there’s one weakness with this Denver defense, however, it’s the ability to defend the middle of the field. The team even brought in Kwon Alexander to help in this regard. If the Raiders are smart, they’ll get Brock Bowers involved. Bowers shockingly did very little last week, but this is a great matchup for him. He could have his best game yet.

Bowers will have to do a lot because it’s likely that Davante Adams sits again. Adams is disgruntled because he wants to be traded, so it’ll be Jakobi Meyers who will have the misfortune of drawing Patrick Surtain II’s coverage.

RECAP: The Broncos were considered perhaps the worst team in the NFL after two weeks of the season. Things have changed since, as they beat the Buccaneers and Jets on the road. They are now favored by nearly a field goal against the Raiders.

I’m more than happy to fade Denver now. The Broncos caught the Buccaneers and Jets napping in terrible spots for them. The Raiders will pay attention to them. Their defense will give Nix a tough battle, which has been par for the course for the Raiders-Broncos games anyway. The Raiders have won the previous eight meetings over Denver.

I like the Raiders for a small play. I was hoping to get +3, but I’m not sure we’ll get that line because the sportsbooks might be worried that the sharps would pound Las Vegas at that number.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Raiders had 11 players miss practice Wednesday, including Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams. The Broncos had one player miss Wednesday’s practice, and he’s just a backup. The Raiders look less appealing.

PLAYER PROP: Brock Bowers’ receiving yards prop is almost 10 yards less than it was last week, which makes no sense. The Broncos have a great defense for the most part, but they can’t cover the middle of the field. This is a great matchup for Bowers, and he’ll be targeted heavily with Davante Adams and Michael Mayer likely out. The best number is over 43.5 -120 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps are pounding the Broncos because of all the Raider injuries. Maxx Crosby is questionable after barely practicing. Davante Adams and Thayer Munford are both out. Dylan Parham and Divine Deablo are both questionable after getting in only one practice. I’m still going to bet two units on the Raiders if Crosby and Parham (their best offensive lineman after Kolton Miller) play.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Maxx Crosby will play, but he could be severely limited after barely practicing all week. I’ve lost interest in this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Raiders will have Maxx Crosby and Dylan Parham, which is huge if they’re really healthy. However, they may not be anywhere close to 100 percent. I wouldn’t blame you for betting the Raiders, but it’s worth noting that the sharps are on Denver. The best line is the standard +3 -110, which I only see available at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -1.

Computer Model: Broncos -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 55% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Raiders have won the previous 8 meetings.

Raiders are 37-55 ATS after a win since 2009.

Opening Line: Broncos -2.5.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Sunny, 76 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: All of the 49er receiver stars weren’t supposed to be back this soon. George Kittle was supposed to be out for several weeks, while Deebo Samuel was expected to be sidelined for six weeks. Yet, both returned this past Sunday. With Trent Williams also available, Brock Purdy torched the hapless Patriots with constant deep balls.

It could be argued that last week’s game was an incredibly easy matchup for Purdy, given that the Patriots are the No. 1 pass-funnel defense in the NFL. While this is true, it’s also valid to say that this is a great matchup, too. The Cardinals have a pitiful secondary that had no chance to stop anything the Redskins were doing last week. They had immense difficulty defending Olamide Zaccheaus.

Making matters worse for the Cardinals, they are horrible at stopping the run. Jeremy McNichols looked like the second coming of Walter Payton against them last week, so how will they possibly defend Jordan Mason?

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals clearly won’t be able to stop the 49ers, so they’ll have to outscore them in a shootout. This may not seem possible, given Arizona’s meager 14-point output last week, but it certainly is, given the 49ers’ injury issues on this side of the ball.

While the 49ers have gotten all of their passing weapons back, they lost another key member of their stop unit, as Fred Warner got hurt last week. Warner is one of the top linebackers in the NFL, so his absence will be enormous, especially given that the other primary linebacker, Dre Greenlaw, is also unavailable. The 49ers will be weaker to the run as a result. Stopping pass-catching running backs will also be an issue, so James Conner projects extremely well.

Warner’s injury is extremely impactful for the 49ers because they already had issues versus opposing aerial attacks. This aspect was not tested last week because the Patriots don’t have viable outside threats, but the Cardinals obviously do. Marvin Harrison Jr. has shown flashes of brilliance thus far, and he could have another huge game against the weak San Francisco cornerbacks.

RECAP: The 49ers just crushed the Patriots with all of their weapons back from injury. I think this means that people believe that they’ll treat the Cardinals similarly, but I don’t see it that way.

New England is the worst team in the NFL. The Cardinals most certainly are not. They’re not a good team, but they’re OK. The net EPA numbers say that they’re 22nd in the NFL. They destroyed the Rams in Week 2 and then hung tight with Detroit the following Sunday. They can compete with the better teams, especially if their opponent is dealing with injuries or distractions.

The 49ers will be experiencing both in this game. Javon Hargrave, Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga were already hurt, and now San Francisco may not have Warner in this game after he got banged up versus New England. The 49ers will also have to overcome an obvious look-ahead situation, given that they have to play against the arch-rival Seahawks in four days. Big favorites are often poor bets prior to Thursday games.

The Cardinals are also appealing in that they are coming off an embarrassing defeat. This is another thing that makes them seem like the correct side in this game. This has been a season comprised of crazy upsets, and Arizona could be the next big underdog to win if the 49ers are caught napping, as predicted.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Fred Warner missed Wednesday’s practice. His absence would fundamentally change San Francisco’s defense. The Cardinals will be a great play if he’s sidelined.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both Fred Warner and George Kittle were DNP-DNP-limited in practice this week. With a game coming up on Thursday, the 49ers may decide to rest those key players. I may go to five units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Fred Warner and George Kittle will play, which is shocking to me because the 49ers have a game in four days. Both players could be limited, so I still love Arizona.

FINAL THOUGHTS: All of the questionable players will be in action, as George Kittle, Fred Warner, and Trey McBride are all active. There’s no sharp action on this game. The best line is +7 -101 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The 49ers have the Seahawks in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -7.

Computer Model: 49ers -6.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 57% (122,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: 49ers have won the last 4 meetings.

Kyler Murray is 15-8 ATS as an underdog.

Brock Purdy is 21-6 SU, 15-12 ATS.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Sunny, 87 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It was surprising to see “No Cookie” Jordan Love take the field last week. Love didn’t get in a full practice all week, and Malik Willis had been playing so well. Love returned from his 2-week hiatus to struggle right away, but eventually caught fire in the second half.

Love’s momentum figures to carry over into this game. He won’t be completely rusty, so he’ll be able to get going right away against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Rams have numerous injuries in their secondary, so it’ll be very difficult for them to cover all of Love’s receivers, even with Christian Watson sidelined.

It’s hard to say whether the Rams are worse against the run or the pass. They’re in the bottom four of each category. They’re so bad at stopping running attacks that they revived D’Andre Swift’s career last week. Swift was so horrendous the week before that the coaching staff said that they’d involve Roschon Johnson more often. Instead, Swift steamrolled the hapless Rams en route to his best performance of the season by a mile, so Josh Jacobs will be even better.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: While Jacobs figures to thrive, Kyren Williams won’t do nearly as well. Williams won’t be completely shut down because he’s extremely talented and has shown that he can overcome tough matchups. However, things are different this year because the Rams are missing multiple interior offensive linemen. The Packers have also put the clamps on the run well enough to rank third in EPA.

With Williams mostly out of commission, Matthew Stafford will have to carry the team. This would be fine if he had even one of Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua, but that’s not the case. Jordan Whittington, a talented sixth-round rookie, finally saw more of a target share last week. The Packers don’t cover slot receivers particularly well, so Whittington could have a decent game.

Stafford should have time to find Whittington, at least. This hasn’t always been the case for the veteran quarterback, who endured protection issues against Chicago last week. However, the Packers are in the bottom half of pressure rate this season, so Stafford will have more of a chance this week.

RECAP: It’s nice to have a week in which we’re not speculating if Love will play. Love got his return out of the way last week, so he won’t have any sort of rust in this game.

With that in mind, it doesn’t seem like the Rams should have an answer for what Green Bay is doing. Los Angeles has one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Packers should be able to beat them on the ground or through the air quite easily.

Having said that, I don’t think I will be betting this game. I hate -3.5 lines because they are less likely to hit than any other point spread. I’d also fear a Stafford back-door cover, as he’s always live to engineer a second-half onslaught.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: “No Cookie” Jordan Love was limited on Wednesday’s practice report. While he’s expected to play, it’s not guaranteed that he’ll be 100 percent.

SATURDAY NOTES: One thing I almost missed is that Darious Williams could be back this week after practicing fully twice. This is a huge for the Rams, who need a talented player to return to their injury-ravaged secondary. I’m going to switch my pick to the Rams. I’m not convinced that Jordan Love will be 100 percent.

PLAYER PROPS: Josh Jacobs has a tremendous matchup. The Rams can’t tackle, and they just revived D’Andre Swift’s career. Jacobs should go nuts in this game. His best number is over 66.5 -114 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I think there’s some merit in tailing the sharps and betting the Rams with Darious Williams back. I may pull the trigger on a small wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jaire Alexander is out, which isn’t a huge deal considering the state of the Rams receiving corps. The sharps are on the Rams. If you want to bet them, the best line is +3 -107 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.

Computer Model: Packers -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 56% (137,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 51-36 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Walt Goes to Vegas 2024, Part 2: Stranger Prices. Read about how I got ripped off in Las Vegas.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: There were three major injuries in the Thursday night game between the Giants and Cowboys. Two occurred on Dallas’ defensive line, while the third transpired when Malik Nabers suffered a concussion toward the end of the evening. It’s unclear what Nabers’ progress is as of Tuesday afternoon, but he will have extra time to clear concussion protocol.

I’m sure Nabers was licking his chops when seeing what the Lions did to Seattle’s defense on Monday night. Jared Goff was a perfect 18-of-18 in a 42-point offensive onslaught. While Daniel Jones will never maintain that completion percentage, Nabers can at least do some damage against a pass defense that wasn’t tested prior to the Monday night affair.

Despite Goff’s perfect stat line, the Seahawks are at their weakest defending the run. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery picked up chunks of yardage against that defense Monday night, and Devin Singletary should have success as well.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: While the Seahawks defense failed miserably in their first real test of the season, the offense at least thrived. Geno Smith did a great job of attacking Detroit’s beleaguered secondary with D.K. Metcalf and his other receivers. Had Metcalf not fumbled deep in Detroit territory, the Seahawks would have scored into the 30s.

Smith will once again be able to successfully attack the opposing secondary. The Giants have some of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL, and they have no chance of covering D.K. Metcalf and the other talented receivers. The one caveat here is that Smith holds the ball for an eternity, so the talented New York pass rushers could get to him and disrupt some drives.

The Giants are better against the run than the pass, but only by default. They’re in the bottom half of rush defense, which spells trouble against Kenneth Walker. The talented runner looked great in his return from injury last week.

RECAP: I mentioned in the 49ers-Cardinals that San Francisco plays this upcoming Thursday night. This is the other leg of that matchup. The Seahawks will battle the 49ers in what is an intense rivalry for them. I don’t expect Seattle to be playing its best this week.

I like the Giants for other reasons in addition to the motivational edge. I also don’t think the Seahawks are good enough to be favored by nearly a touchdown. They have a great record, but they’ve beaten bad teams. The Giants are also a bad team, but it’s not like the Seahawks have blown out those bad teams, aside from Miami.

Furthermore, the Giants can rush the passer well, and Smith loves to hold on to the ball for eons in the pocket. They could get to him, and they also figure to run on the Seahawks, who struggle against ground attacks.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money on Seattle moved this line to -6.5. I wondered why until I saw that Malik Nabers was DNP on Wednesday because of his concussion. I won’t be as high on the Giants if Nabers is out.

SATURDAY NOTES: Malik Nabers is out, so I don’t have much of an interest in the Giants because he’s their entire offense. The sharps don’t like the Giants either. In fact, they bet the Seahawks up to -7.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds that Nabers is out. The Giants may still be the right side, but I don’t see how they’re going to move the ball on Mike Macdonald’s defense.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no surprising inactives. The sharps were on the Seahawks at -6 and -6.5, but not at -7. If you like the Giants, you can get a standard +7 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Giants.

The Seahawks have the 49ers in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -6.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Sharp money on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 70% (123,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Seahawks are 60-46 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Seahawks are 8-16 ATS as a favorite of 6+ since 2017.

Geno Smith is 3-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+.

Opening Line: Seahawks -6.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 62 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: We have to begin on this side of the ball because that’s where all the injuries are. Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence got hurt last Thursday, and that’s not all, as Pittsburgh lost top offensive lineman James Daniels to a season-ending Achilles tear.

The Steelers could be down three offensive linemen depending on what the injury report looks like, which would have been very troubling in this matchup under normal circumstances. However, with Parsons and Lawrence being out, it won’t matter. The Cowboys already weren’t covering outside receivers well, so George Pickens should have a strong performance, as Justin Fields will have enough time in the pocket to find him.

Speaking of Fields, Dallas often struggles against mobile quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson ripped through the defense, and so will Fields. Najee Harris will also pick up chunks of yardage on the ground, as the Cowboys are notoriously poor versus the run.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Steelers aren’t the only team in this matchup with offensive line concerns. The Cowboys lost two starting blockers in the offseason, including Tyron Smith, and they haven’t pass protected Dak Prescott well as a result. Rookie left tackle Tyler Guyton has resembled a human turnstile.

I don’t need to tell you that Guyton is going to be a huge liability in this matchup. T.J. Watt and company will have their way with Dallas’ offensive line. Dak Prescott will constantly be under siege, so he won’t be able to connect with CeeDee Lamb as consistently as he’d like.

The Cowboys can’t turn to the running game to keep Pittsburgh honest either. They have one of the weaker rushing attacks in the NFL, and the Steelers are fourth versus the run anyway.

RECAP: When Parsons and Lawrence suffered injuries last Thursday, I immediately thought about a wagering opportunity on the Steelers. Pittsburgh had two offensive linemen sidelined in Week 4, but Parsons and Lawrence being sidelined would give the Steeler offense a great boost.

Pittsburgh, however, lost a key player in Daniels, who was knocked out for the year with a torn Achilles. If Isaac Seumalo doesn’t return, the Steelers will be down three offensive linemen. This would normally be catastrophic against Parsons and company, but it’s just company in this game, and not really the entire company because Lawrence won’t be available.

I’m not in love with this game from a betting perspective. I will be on the Steelers as a fade of a heavily publicly backed underdog, but I really worry about the blocking unless Seumalo can return to action.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Isaac Seumalo practiced fully, which is huge for the Steelers because of James Daniels’ injury. Micah Parsons was DNP on Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: Isaac Seumalo will be back. The Cowboys, meanwhile, may have cluster injuries at two positions. Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence are both out. Trevon Diggs was downgraded in practice, and the team is already missing DaRon Bland. This is a great matchup for the Steelers anyway with T.J. Watt and company against Dallas’ poor offensive line. I’ll be on the Steelers for at least three units.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going to parlay Najee Harris over 68.5 rushing yards, CeeDee Lamb over 77.5 receiving yards, Rico Dowdle under 40.5 rushing yards, and Rico Dowdle over 12.5 receiving yards. The Cowboys have a miserable run defense, and Najee Harris is the only healthy running back. The Steelers allow lots of production to the slot, so CeeDee Lamb figures to be very productive. Pittsburgh clamps down on the run, so Dowdle won’t get much on the ground. However, in the two Dallas losses, Dowdle has eclipsed 20 receiving yards. This $25 parlay pays $263.62 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m going to bump this up to four units. The more I think about it, the more lopsided this matchup is.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The more I think about it, the more I love the Steelers. I’m going up to five units. I’m shocked the sharps haven’t gone on Pittsburgh, but they haven’t taken the Cowboys either. The public is all over Dallas, which is music to my ears. The best line is -2.5 -106 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -1.

Computer Model: Steelers -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

The Cowboys are a massive public dog.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 70% (185,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Cowboys -1.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 72 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas, home of the Kansas City Chiefs, the fraud team that beat my Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Game only because they cheated and they are butt holes, sorry for cursing, Mother! Tonight, the Saints attempt to avenge the Eagles loss by defeating the sorry Chiefs, and if they don’t take care of business, there will be some serious repercussions, believe me! I’m ready to say mean things about them on social media if Mother lets me on tonight!

Emmitt: Thanks, Edward. You say the Chief cheat hitting a little to close to homeless. When the Dallas Cowboy win the Super Game like five time I think, people say we cheating, and that is why Jerry Johnson fire Jimmy Jones. As the old saying go, cheetahs never prosper because cheetahs the kind of animal that never prosper because he a bird and a manimal at the same time.

Reilly: Emmitt, I just took a biology test in Mother’s home school class, and I can assure you that cheetahs are not birds. They are mammals. Believe me, I got an 95 on the test, and then Mother let me get ice cream for doing so well, especially because I outscored New Daddy. Mind you, this was sugar-free ice cream because I get too hyper when I eat real ice cream, so even though I’m 73, hopefully I’m old enough for the real deal some day.

Tollefson: Reilly, I had one of my female slaves tell me the same thing. She said I get too hyper when I eat too much ice cream, so I made her pay the ultimate price. I clonked her over the head with an iron and then made her clean my bathroom with her toothbrush while naked, and then she had to brush her teeth with that toothbrush! Ha!

Reilly: Tolly, I’d say the punishment fits the crime there, but I’m surprised you didn’t bury her in the woods like with your other failed female slaves.

Tollefson: Oh, that goes without saying. I did this after she brushed her teeth with that filthy toothbrush.

Reilly: Tolly, you never fail to disappoint. Speaking of not disappointing, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. Here’s tonight’s injury report. Patrick Mahomes has Covid-19. Derek Carr has Covid-24. Alvin Kamara has Ebola. All are probable for tonight’s game. OK, I’m now joined by some guy, I’m not really sure who he is, but when you’re on my high level of journalism, you don’t need to know who you’re talking to.

Benjamin Netanyahu: Hi, my name is Benjamin Netanyahu. I am the prime minister of Israel. I would like to invite everyone in the NFL community to play an American football game in Israel. It is totally safe for anyone to visit, I promise. The only rockets in Israel are Houston Rocket players who visit for vacation.

Charissa Thompson: Sorry, what did you say your name was? Nintendo Yoo-hoo? What kind of a name is that?

Benjamin Netanyahu: No, it’s- hold on, wait a second. I think I see representatives Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib in the stands. Let me push this button, and, boom! Look at their pagers explode! So wonderful!

Reilly: President Nintendo Yoo-hoo, do you think I could borrow that button and some exploding pagers? I’d like to sneak into the Chiefs locker room and put some pagers in the butts of the players and then press the button. That would make amends for them cheating in the Super Game! President Camel Toe Harris, what do you think about that Nintendo guy’s exploding button? Can we use it to beat the Chiefs?

Kamala Harris: Israel is a country in the Middle East. It exists next to another country called Palenstine, and they are the good guys and Israel are the bad guys. And they’re all in the Middle East because it’s in the middle, and it’s east. When I was raised in a middle class family, I looked at the map we had in our middle-class home, and I asked my daddy, “Why do they call it the Middle East, daddy?” And he said it’s because Israel is evil. And I said, “I wish the Palenstine people had fweedom. I wish they had fweedom.” I said this in my middle-class home, which is a home belonging to a class that’s in the middle.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, once again, my political opponent has no idea what she’s talking about because she’s a total disaster and a total fraud, and she would be a ruler, probably the worst president we’ve ever had in this country, and no one will have seen anything like it, frankly, and Kamala is lying about everything, including class, she says that she was in the middle class, but she’s the lowest class of any person who has ever existed, and believe me, I know a lot about class, no one knows more about class than Trump because Trump is in Kevin Reilly’s mother’s class, and he scored an 85 on the test, which is the highest score anyone can ever score, no one has ever seen anything like it, but Reilly got ice cream and Trump did not, which made Trump very sad, frankly, because Trump loves ice cream, especially the ice cream they have at McDonald’s, which is the best ice cream anyone has ever eaten, no one has ever seen anything like it.

Wolfley: DONALD, YOU SAY NO ONE HAS EVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE IT, BUT MY EIGHTH COUSIN, AN ABACUS WITH SPAGHETTI FOR A TONGUE AND LIPS FOR EYES SEES EVERYTHING THAT HAS EVER HAPPENED AND WILL EVER HAPPEN. MAYBE THEY’LL MAKE HIM KING BECAUSE HE HAS THE BEST STORY.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! You know who has the best story? Me! Except New Daddy won’t read me stories before bedtime. New Daddy, will you please read me a story before bedtime tonight?

Jay Cutler: Yeah, I wouldn’t want to do anything else in the world.

Reilly: Wow, really? I feel so loved!

Jay Cutler: Huh? Dude, I’m talking on the phone here. My friend just asked me if I want to come over to his house to watch paint dry for eight hours.

Reilly: New Daddy, come on, please, just read me a fairy tale before bedtime!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about fairy tales, Kevin. I know that because you just mentioned those words, Kevin. Let’s talk about some fairy tales, shall we? Let’s begin with Cinderella, Kevin. Your mother makes you do chores like her, Kevin, but you’ll never meet a prince at a ball, Kevin. What about Snow White, Kevin? Let’s segue into Hansel and Gretel, Kevin. Your mom likes to feed you like the witch did to those kids, Kevin. Care to speak about Jack and the Beanstalk, Kevin? We can touch on Sleeping Beauty, Kevin, except no woman will want to touch you, Kevin. Now, let’s-

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, ALL THE WOMEN WANT TO TOUCH ME, BUT MOTHER SAID SHE HELD A MEETING WITH ALL THE WOMEN AND WARNED THEM NOT TO TOUCH ME BECAUSE I’M A DELICATE FLOWER, SO THAT’S WHY NO WOMAN WILL SPEAK TO ME! We’ll be back after this!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: There was so much promise with the Chiefs offense this year. They acquired Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy to complement Rashee Rice. The receiving corps was dreadful following Tyreek Hill’s departure, but the front office finally did a great job of replenishing the lost talent.

Well, so much for that. With Brown already hurt, Rice suffered a brutal injury versus the Chargers. It’s just Worthy now, who is only an inconsistent deep threat. The Saints have the talent in the secondary to put the clamps on this sort of an attack. Marshon Lattimore will be able to limit Worthy, so the rest of the defense can focus on containing Travis Kelce, who is expected to take on a larger role in the wake of Rice’s injury.

The Chiefs would love it if they could compensate for the Brown and Rice injuries with a strong rushing attack, but they don’t possess that anymore. Isiah Pacheco is also hurt, so the Chiefs had to rely on Kareem Hunt once Carson Steele fumbled last week. Hunt was better than Steele, but that’s not saying much. Hunt is washed up, so the Saints won’t face much of a challenge when trying to tackle him.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: It’s truly remarkable that the Saints were so explosive offensively last week. I say this because they were down three offensive linemen, losing Erik McCoy and Cesar Ruiz against the Eagles. Despite this, they still generated 366 net yards of offense against an Atlanta defense that has plenty of talent.

The Saints offensive line will be put to the test in this game. The Chiefs have a great defensive line that includes Chris Jones, so they should be able to hound Derek Carr and shut down the running lanes that Alvin Kamara will seek to utilize.

Steve Spagnuolo will also be looking to take Chris Olave away from Carr. Spagnuolo is infamous for doubling teaming the opposing best threat, so Carr will have to look elsewhere. The problem is that Rashid Shaheed is primarily a deep threat, so Carr not having time in the pocket could affect Shaheed’s production.

RECAP: The EPA numbers say this spread is way off. I think most casual fans might assume that the Chiefs should be favored by more than five. They’re undefeated, after all. Surely Mahomes can beat the Saints by more than five points.

Actually, the opposite is true. The Chiefs are favored by way too many points. The EPA numbers say that Kansas City should be -2, which makes sense if you think about it. The Chiefs would have lost to the one-win Bengals had Joe Burrow not fumbled, and they would have lost to the Falcons had Raheem Morris known when to kick field goals in the fourth quarter. Kansas City had issues putting away the Chargers even though they were playing against a team missing most of its top players, including Joey Bosa and both starting tackles.

The Chiefs seldom win by margin this early in the season anyway. Ever since Mahomes won his first Super Bowl, they are sub-.500 in non-divisional games in the regular season if favored by more than a field goal. At 4-0, the Chiefs don’t really have much of an incentive to give it their all in this game, especially against a non-conference opponent.

The Saints seem like a solid play. I wish we were still getting the advance spread of +6.5, but like I said, we’re getting good value regardless.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It was odd to see this line rise to -5.5. There hasn’t been a practice report yet, so I’m not sure why the line would move in Kansas City’s favor.

SATURDAY NOTES: As if the Saints didn’t have enough offensive line injuries, Shane Lemieux missed practice twice, while Lucas Patrick was downgraded on Friday to DNP. At some point, there will be a flake of straw that will break the camel’s back.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Saints will be down at least two offensive linemen (Cesar Ruiz, Shane Lemieux) in addition to the two on injured reserve. That’s not good, but I still think they’re the right side.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: I don’t really like a side in this game because the Saints have so many injuries, but what I want to do is bet the under. I usually don’t bet totals, but both of these offenses are 20th or worse in adjusted EPA. A game between two such offenses should have a total in the 38 range, but we’re getting under 43, which seems great. The best number is under 43 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROPS AND SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m looking at Juwan Johnson’s over 19.5 receiving yards. The Chiefs have been very leaky to tight ends, and Johnson’s snap count has increased in recent weeks. With Taysom Hill sidelined, Johnson should have at least 20 receiving yards. The best number is over 19.5 -115 at BetMGM.

I’m going to parlay Johnson’s over receiving yards with Rashid Shaheed over 48.5 receiving yards, Chris Olave under 59.5 receiving yards, and Travis Kelce over 58.5 receiving yards. The Chiefs typically double team No. 1 receivers. True No. 2 wideouts tend to do well against them for that reason. And Travis Kelce has to take on much more of a receiving role with Rashee Rice injured. This $20 parlay pays $228 on BetMGM with the 20-percent profit-boost token they have available under Promotions.

I also went a little nuts with this same-game parlay on FanDuel because there’s a 30-percent odds boost. I skipped Johnson’s yardage because the number there sucks. I parlayed Shaheed over, Olave under, Kelce over, along with Saints +5.5, under 42.5, and Kelce anytime touchdown. This $25 parlay pays $2,265.20. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still neutral on this game, but I like the under. There’s a bit of sharp money on the Saints that has brought this line down to +5, and even +4.5 at Caesars. The best line is +5.5 -110 at Bet365. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from Bet365 by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

This game means much more to the Saints.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -6.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Slight lean on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 61% (317,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 88-24 SU, 61-49 ATS (48-36 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -6.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Clear, 66 degrees. Light wind.