NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2024 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
2024 NFL Picks: 18-25-1 (-$1,445)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

---

Go to Week 3 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

Week 2 Analysis: We’ve suffered half a season’s worth of bad beats through two weeks plus the preseason. We got crushed on our August NFL Pick of the Month when the Ravens fumbled on the final offensive play to set up an Eagles field goal. In Week 1, Will Levis sabotaged a sure Tennessee victory to cost us five units. We had two bad beats in Week 2. That’s 17 units in total, plus the vig. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Raiders, 4 units (win): Not only did I bet on this game, I have the Raiders over 6.5 wins and Ravens under 11.5 wins, so I was happy that Las Vegas won outright.

Packers, 5 units (win): I nearly lost my mind when Josh Jacobs fumbled into the end zone, but the Packers still covered easily. This one was never in doubt.

Titans, 5 units (loss): The Titans, once again, outgained their opponent, yet failed to cover as an underdog of more than a field goal. For the second week in a row, Levis sabotaged a potential cover with one of the dumbest throws you’ll ever see. He tossed a backward shovel pass inside the Jets 5-yard line to cost his team three points. The Titans were still winning or tied for most of the game, but they naturally lost by seven once again. Levis has now cost us about $1,100 through two weeks.

Giants, 3 units (loss): Last year, we lost with Texans -2.5 because Houston’s kicker got hurt, so the Texans opted to kneel on the extra-point attempt. This year, Graham Gano suffered a groin injury on the opening kickoff, so the Giants couldn’t attempt any kicks. They lost three points on extra tries, and then they had a chip-shot field goal attempt at the very end that they had to eschew. Daniel Jones appeared to connect with Malik Nabers on fourth down, but Nabers dropped the ball. Meanwhile, the opposing kicker drilled seven field goals. Which Indian burial ground did I urinate on to deserve this?

Rams, 3 units (loss): I was way off on this one. I undervalued the Cardinals pass rush, which gave Matthew Stafford major problems. I also overestimated the Rams defense, which looked pitiful versus Arizona.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: There were questions about how Aaron Rodgers would perform as a 40-year-old coming off a torn Achilles. He had a decent debut versus San Francisco, and after a slow start against Tennessee, he caught fire in the second half despite battling one of the top defenses in the NFL.

Rodgers will have an easier matchup in this game. The Patriots had immense issues getting the Seahawks off the field last week. They were extremely weak to the pass, with D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba torching the secondary. Garrett Wilson should be able to continue the damage Metcalf caused. New England will also be battling the best offensive line it’ll have seen thus far, so getting to Rodgers will be a problem.

Breece Hall has a tougher matchup, as the Patriots currently rank 10th in the run defense department at the moment. It’s worth noting, however, that the Patriots have gone against Zack Moss and Zach Charbonnet, so it’s not like they’ve battled the likes of Hall.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots were able to keep pace with the Seahawks last week despite having major problems against Metcalf and Smith-Njigba. They did this two ways: running with Rhamondre Stevenson and having Jacoby Brissett attack the middle of the field with Hunter Henry.

The Jets are notorious for being poor against the run. They signed Leki Fotu this offseason to fix this area, but Fotu is on injured reserve. Stevenson should do well on the ground, provided the Patriots don’t fall too far behind. Henry also has a nice matchup, as the Jets’ injury situation makes it so they can be beaten over the middle of the field.

Sustaining drives could be difficult, however. The Jets have the cornerback talent to completely nullify the New England receivers, so any negative play will instantly nuke any New York possession.

RECAP: I have a primary rule concerning Thursday and London games. Given the brief preparation time, I will always bet the superior team if I believe they will be focused. The inferior squad just doesn’t have enough of an opportunity to create a game plan to overcome the tougher foe.

I also have a secondary rule, and that would be fading teams coming off overtime. The Patriots went the extra session versus the Seahawks. This is bad news for them because teams playing on Thursday coming off an overtime affair are just 5-24 against the spread all time.

The superior team in this matchup is obviously the Jets. Sure, the Patriots beat the Bengals and nearly went the distance against the Seahawks, but those were fluky results. The Bengals weren’t trying very hard, while the Seahawks are a mediocre team that was playing across the country in an early start time. The Jets are a top-10 team that should have their way with the exhausted Patriots.

Our Week 3 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both teams have injury concerns. The Jets won’t have Jermaine Johnson and possibly C.J. Mosley, though they’ll get back D.J. Reed. The Patriots, meanwhile, will be without two starting offensive linemen, while two others, including David Andrews, are questionable. New England not being able to block at all could be a huge problem for them. Conversely, someone during the show (video below) brought up that the Jets are playing their third game in 11 days. Teams in this situation are 4-9 against the spread. That’s not good, but it’s also not a big sample size. I’m sticking with the Jets for three units.

NFL PLAYER PROP BETS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: My favorite prop bet is Breece Hall over 30.5 receiving yards. Since Hall was unshackled last year, he has topped 30.5 receiving yards in nine of his 14 games. Given that he can go the distance any time he touches the ball, I’d say this is a good bet. The best number is over 30.5 -125 at BetMGM.

I also really like the Garrett Wilson over receiving yards. I realize there’s negative correlation between these two props, but the Jets offense funnels to two players primarily. The Patriots can’t defend the pass at all, so I think Wilson will go over. The best number is over 64.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Demario Douglas over receiving yards looks good as well. Jerod Mayo told reporters ahead of this game that he wants to get Douglas more involved because he’s very explosive. The best number is over 26.5 -110 at BetMGM.

The final prop is Jets over 22.5 points. Teams coming off overtime games and then playing on Thursday night like the Patriots often surrender the over to opposing team points, so New York shouldn’t have any issues scoring. The best number is over 22.5 -118 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

I’m putting all of these bets into a parlay. This $25 parlay pays $206.25, and it was done on BetMGM.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, but I still like the Jets. There are a variety of -6s and -6.5s out there, but the best line is -6 -110 at BetMGM>

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Patriots are playing on a short week after overtime.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -7.

Computer Model: Jets -8.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 56% (74,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Patriots have won 36 of the last 43 meetings.

Aaron Rodgers is 129-88 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Jets -6.5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 71 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers are 2-0, thanks to a couple of great performances by J.K. Dobbins. Despite coming off an Achilles, Dobbins has been spectacular behind the Chargers’ rebuilt offensive line. He’s eclipsed the century mark twice, albeit the second instance occurring against a woeful Carolina defense.

Dobbins will have his work cut out for him in this matchup. The Steelers have great defensive personnel to stop the run. They currently rank third versus ground attacks after putting the clamps on Bijan Robinson in Week 1.

Justin Herbert will have to do more in this game than any other thus far. It helps that he’s well protected by his two tackles, as Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt have been tremendous through two games. They’ll be tested against the Steelers, however, and Herbert isn’t exactly healthy because he’s dealing with his plantar fascia.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Chargers also rate highly versus the run. In fact, they’re even higher than the Steelers, and also everyone else in the NFL. The numbers say they should be able to restrict Najee Harris, but I’m not sure if that will be the case. The Chargers have battled two weak running games – Zamir White, Chuba Hubbard – so Harris will offer a greater test.

The Chargers will also have to worry about Justin Fields as a running threat. I worry about the Charger linebackers being able to keep up with him, as Denzel Perryman is on the older side (32 soon).

Of course, the Chargers will be able to pressure Fields with their great edge rushers, provided that they’re healthy. Joey Bosa was on the field for just 14 snaps last week, so he may not play a full game. This would be huge for the Steelers, who replaced the awful Broderick Jones with Troy Fautanu last week. Fautanu was much better than Jones, but he’ll certainly be tested in this matchup.

RECAP: The general rule with Mike Tomlin is that you want to back him as an underdog and fade him as a favorite. As discussed last week, however, Tomlin has a winning spread record if he’s favored by a field goal or less, which is the case in this matchup.

Tomlin’s defense doesn’t appear to have a great matchup like it did in the first two weeks of the season. However, if Herbert isn’t at full strength off his plantar fascia, Tomlin could force him into a poor performance. The Steelers also should be able to limit Dobbins, which the Chargers’ first two opponents could not do. Again, Pittsburgh put the clamps on Robinson in Week 1, so stopping Dobbins shouldn’t be too difficult.

I may bet a bit on the Steelers, especially after seeing that the Chargers are huge public dogs. However, I worry that I’m not reading the Chargers correctly because I’m 0-2 ATS in their games, and I was way off last week. That could have just been a byproduct of the Panthers, however.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Justin Herbert was DNP in Wednesday’s practice because of an ankle. I’d have to believe that this is related to his plantar fascia in some way. If so, that’s not a good sign heading into a game against Pittsburgh’s monstrous defense.

SATURDAY NOTES: Justin Herbert was downgraded in Friday’s practice to DNP. He’s listed as questionable. At this rate, Herbert is either going to sit, or he’s going to play hurt. Either way, the Steelers look great. Easton Stick versus a top-10 defense would be a disaster for the Chargers. Herbert being banged up against T.J. Watt and company would be almost as perilous. I’m going to bet four units on the Steelers, and I’m going to lock them in now because if Herbert is ruled out, this line could balloon to -6.5. The best line is -2.5 -117 at BetRivers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Justin Herbert is active. He’ll be playing with a high ankle sprain and a plantar fascia. We’ve seen this from him before where he tries to play through major injury and is terrible as a consequence, so I’m not concerned with my Pittsburgh wager. The sharps bet the Steelers earlier in the week, but not the past 24 hours. The best line is -2.5 -110 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -1.5.

Computer Model: Steelers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

The Chargers are a huge public dog.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 72% (125,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Steelers -2.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 78 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 1-2 ATS in Week 1.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Eagles -6.5

Ravens -8.5

Chargers -5

49ers -5

The public got wrecked last week, only winning with the Chargers. The public is now 2-5 ATS.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

49ers -7.5

Chiefs -3.5

Chargers +2

Buccaneers -7

Packers +3.5

Raiders -5.5

Two road favorites, two home favorites, and two public dogs. I like how there’s a lot variety this week.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: If you look at the numbers, none of the Colts offensive players produced much of anything last week, except for maybe Alec Pierce. If you look closer, you’ll see why. Indianapolis was on the field for just 19 minutes, as the Packers sucked the life out of the game by running the ball down Indianapolis’ throat.

The Colts should be able to rebound. The Titans had success on the ground with Tony Pollard in the opener, so Jonathan Taylor projects well. It helps, of course, that Taylor has one of the best offensive lines in the business blocking for him.

Anthony Richardson should be able to do some damage as well. Richardson loves to throw bombs, and he’s protected well enough to do it. Aside from Montez Sweat, the Bears can’t really rush the passer, so Richardson will have plenty of time to take some downfield shots. The Bears have some liabilities in their secondary, as witnessed by Nico Collins’ massive game.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Williams was dreadful in the opener, but had a much better second performance, at least in the opening half. He wilted with some mistakes in the second half, but it was an improvement despite Keenan Allen being sidelined.

It doesn’t seem as though Allen will play, but he had the toughest outlook of any Chicago receiver in this contest. The Colts struggle to cover wideouts on the outside, so this is an area in which D.J. Moore and perhaps Rome Odunze will thrive. Indianapolis is missing its top outside cornerback and safety, and it also has some injuries to the defensive line, so Williams will have a cleaner pocket than he possessed in the first two weeks.

There’s a chance the Bears will be able to run the ball as well, given the DeForest Buckner injury. However, I don’t trust Chicago’s run blocking to do the same damage that the Packers were able to accomplish last week.

RECAP: I loved the Colts as a sleeper Super Bowl team heading into the season, but they’ve been ravaged by injuries. They were missing their top cornerback and safety last week, while Buckner and Kwity Paye were playing hurt. It sounds like Buckner may not be available for this game.

Williams should have an easier time against the Colts, as this is his easiest matchup to date. Conversely, the Bears have some problems with their defense, primarily when it comes to stopping the run, so Richardson and Taylor figure to perform well.

I’m not seeing a clear edge in this game. I’m leaning toward the Colts because I think this line is a bit shy of what it should be, but it’s difficult to factor in all of their injuries at the moment.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Keenan Allen missed practice again. Teven Jenkins also didn’t practice, so perhaps the Bears won’t have such a big edge in the injured players department.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts will have Julian Blackmon back from injury, but they could be without Michael Pittman Jr. and Laiatu Latu. Pittmsn missed practice Friday with multiple injuries, while Latu barely practiced all week. I still am leaning toward the Colts, but I’m nowhere near betting this game.

PLAYER PROP: I like D.J. Moore over 61.5 receiving yards. Moore had 36 and 53 receiving yards in his first two games, but dealt with extremely difficult matchups. This is a much easier one, as Indianapolis is down its No. 1 cornerback and some pass rushers. The best number is over 61.5 -115 at You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Michael Pittman Jr. and Laiatu Latu are active for the Colts, which is nice, but not enough for me to bet them. There’s no sharp action on this game. The best line is -1.5 -109 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -2.5.

Computer Model: Bears -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 58% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Colts -2.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

I don’t know what education has to do with football knowledge. I also don’t know why 12 people upvoted that stupid comment. Let’s be real though, Andy probably has 11 other alt accounts and liked his own post that many times.

Here’s someone who proposed a sexual favor:

A tempting offer, except for the pink eye. The pink eye ruins everything!

I’m not sure why this guy thought I was unemployed. Does he not know that people can run businesses online? Also, he’s another guy who liked his comment over and over. Who would like something like that?

Anyway, I was called a fat weirdo and this:

A douche clown! Would you rather be a douche clown or a fat weirdo? Let me know in the comments section!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: What is it with former Jets bust quarterbacks going elsewhere and thriving? First, Geno Smith experienced a renaissance in Seattle, and now Sam Darnold is thriving in Minnesota. Perhaps the Broncos should ditch Bo Nix and turn to Zach Wilson ASAP.

Darnold, like Smith, is surrounded by some great personnel. He’s being coached up at a very high level, and he has a terrific offensive line in front of him. Oh, and it helps that Justin Jefferson is his receiver. Jefferson has a difficult matchup this week against Derek Stingley, but it’s not like Jefferson can’t beat tough coverage. Darnold will have enough time to find Jefferson and perhaps a returning Jordan Addison, as his offensive line has done a phenomenal job of protecting him through two weeks.

Aaron Jones should have a solid performance as well. The Texans currently rank in the middle of the pack as far as run defense is concerned. Jones is also a threat as a receiver out of the backfield, and he should thrive in this regard against Houston’s mediocre linebackers.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Vikings did a great job of assembling defensive talent this offseason. Andrew Van Ginkel has especially been tremendous in this defense. Brian Flores befuddled Daniel Jones in the opener and then was able to force the 49ers into some turnovers.

It’s hard to imagine Minnesota’s defense having the same success against C.J. Stroud, however. Stroud is on another level with the mental part of his game, and he has three dynamic receivers, plus Dalton Schultz at his disposal. The Vikings improved their secondary this spring, but they still have some liabilities at cornerback that can be exploited.

The Vikings will also have to worry about the run, as Joe Mixon figures to return from an injury he suffered midway through the Sunday night affair. The Vikings just allowed Jordan Mason to reach 100 rushing yards, so Mixon projects well.

RECAP: The Vikings were one of the most underrated teams heading into the year, as they made a number of terrific moves in free agency to improve their defense from a year ago. Darnold, meanwhile, has quality weapons at his disposal and is being coached up at a very high level. There are some fake 2-0 teams, but Minnesota is legitimate.

I like the Vikings in this spot, but we’ve lost all of our line value. Minnesota was +4.5 on the advance spread, but the number is now +2. Still, the Vikings seem like they’re in a good spot with the Texans potentially being flat after their first win on national TV under this new regime. Then again, Stroud is a quarterback who finds ways to win, so I could see the Vikings being ahead for most of the game until Stroud wills his way to victory.

I’d have a bet on the Vikings at anything above +3, but the lost line value is extremely unappealing, so this is a non-bet for me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps continue to bet the Vikings, driving this line down to +2. Perhaps the reason for this is that Nico Collins missed Wednesday’s practice, but the Texans have a million other receivers.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps continue to bet the Vikings, with this line down to +1.5. Justin Jefferson has no injury designation. Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce, but Cam Akers is a viable replacement, so these injuries shouldn’t impact your stance on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were betting the Vikings all week until the line got to +1.5. There is a +2 available, and you can get it at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Vikings.

The Texans are coming off a national TV victory.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -4.5.

Computer Model: Texans -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 55% (123,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Vikings are 44-36 ATS at home since 2014 (13-21 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Texans -4.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Contest Announcement time!

Our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

Also, our Survivor Contest has returned as well. It’s free to enter, and you can win $350!

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin injuries kept me off the Browns last week. In fact, they swayed me to Jacksonville, which proved to be a huge mistake. Neither tackle played, yet the Browns still found a way to prevail, thanks to the incompetence of Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars.

One of the two tackles will be needed in this contest because the thing the Giants do best is rush the passer, especially on the edge. They have Dexter Lawrence in the middle to deflect attention from Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux, who would have a huge advantage versus backup tackles. They contributed to the Giants’ five-sack performance last week.

Deshaun Watson having time in the pocket would be the difference maker in this matchup because the Giants have horrendous cornerback play. Despite Jayden Daniels taking five sacks, Daniels completed nearly every pass he threw. The Giants could experience the same fate once again if they can’t pressure Watson.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I loved Malik Nabers’ outlook last week. I played him in every DFS lineup because of the great matchup and low pricing. The Redskins can’t pressure the quarterback, and thus their already-awful cornerbacks have less of a chance to cover anyone. Daniel Jones, who was awful in Week 1, was able to use the improved protection to constantly deliver the ball to Nabers. Unfortunately, Nabers cost us three units with his fourth-down drop at the end of the game.

Jones and Nabers won’t have the same success this week. The Browns are obviously much better at rushing the passer, thanks to Myles Garrett. Cleveland has seven sacks through two weeks compared to just two by Washington. Jones, as we know, is far worse when pressured heavily, so he could have a similar performance to the one he experienced in Week 1.

It’s difficult to imagine the Giants having any sort of success against Cleveland’s stellar defense. Devin Singletary had a solid performance last week, but he won’t be able to maintain that level of play against the Browns’ ferocious ground defense.

RECAP: I don’t know where I’m going with this game yet, and anyone who has been reading the picks page for the past two weeks knows exactly why. We just don’t know the status of Wills and Conklin. Even though the Giants are a poor team, having Wills or Conklin available – one will be good enough – is important because the Giants have dynamic edge rushers on the other side.

This would be a high number for the Browns to cover while missing both their tackles. I’d lean toward the Giants in that instance. Fading Watson with an injury-ravaged offensive line as a near-touchdown favorite seems like the right move.

If, however, one tackle returns, then I’ll be on the Browns, as they’re a far superior team compared to the crappy Giants. The problem is that we may not know this injury information until at least Friday, and perhaps not until 90 minutes prior to kickoff. Check back for more updates, or follow me @walterfootball.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jack Conklin practiced fully on Friday. I don’t need to tell you how huge this is for the Browns. We’ll have to see if Conklin suffers any sort of setback, but if he’s able to suit up, I’d have interest in betting on Cleveland.

SATURDAY NOTES: Uh oh. Jack Conklin was downgraded Friday to limited. He’s questionable, as is Jedrick Wills, who was limited all week. We’ll have to wait until kickoff to know what we’re doing with this game.

PLAYER PROP: I love Amari Cooper over 47.5 receiving yards. This is a very low number for a WR1. Granted, Cooper hasn’t even topped 20 receiving yards yet this season, but he has 17 total targets through two games. Cooper hasn’t done much because the Browns have been down their tackles, but Jack Conklin will be back this week to give Deshaun Watson more time in the pocket to find Cooper downfield. The best number is over 47.5 receiving yards -129 at Caesars. I’m also betting the alt over 80+ receiving yards, as Cooper had 80+ receiving yards in eight of his 15 games last year. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jedrick Wills is active, and so is Myles Garrett. However, we just don’t know how effective Garrett will be, given that he’s pretty banged up. I won’t be betting this game as a result. The sharps haven’t touched this either. I wouldn’t hate a Cleveland bet, and if you want to go that way, -6.5 -108 at DraftKings is the best number. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Browns -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Browns -6.5.

Computer Model: Browns -10.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Public money … on the Giants?

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 56% (108,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Kevin Stefanski is 14-21 ATS as a favorite.

Opening Line: Browns -6.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 82 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles sorely missed A.J. Brown on Monday night. Sure, they were a Saquon Barkley dropped pass away from beating the Falcons, but they never would have been in that position if Brown were on the field. Brown is expected to miss a couple more weeks, which is far from ideal.

Philadelphia’s diminished receiving corps doesn’t have the best matchup in this game. Kool-Aid McKinstry has performed well for a rookie, while Marshon Lattimore could be back from injury. The Saints have also generated good pressure on opposing quarterbacks, registering eight sacks through two weeks. Jalen Hurts has a great offensive line in front of him, but it’s not as elite as it once was, so the Saints could get to him on occasion.

The stats say it’ll be difficult for the Eagles to establish the run as well. The Saints are second versus ground attacks thus far in 2024, but it’s worth noting that they’ve gone against Chuba Hubbard/Miles Sanders and Ezekiel Elliott/Rico Dowdle, so it’s not like they’ve faced any sort of legitimate competition in that regard.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Philadelphia’s defense was expected to be highly improved this season, thanks to numerous additions and the Vic Fangio hire. That has not been the case through two games, as the Eagles haven’t generated much pressure on the quarterback and they haven’t stopped the run well at all. Bryce Huff and Jalen Carter have been massive disappointments.

It’s not a good time for the Eagles to be porous versus the run because Alvin Kamara is the hottest running back in football at the moment. Kamara scored four times last week and should be in line for plenty of long gains in this contest if Philadelphia doesn’t straighten out its defensive situation, which could be difficult on a short week.

Thanks to the lacking pressure – Philadelphia has only three sacks through two games – the secondary has suffered, allowing plenty of big plays. This obviously includes Kirk Cousins’ great final drive. The Eagles should have success here because of the holes on the Saints’ offensive line, but New Orleans has inexplicably blocked very well through two weeks. If that continues to be the case, the Eagles won’t stand a chance of defending Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.

RECAP: I have to say that the line value on this game is amazing. The Eagles were -3.5 on the advance spread, yet they’re 2.5-point underdogs now, just based on one week’s worth of games. A swing of six points is way too much of an overreaction, so Philadelphia seems very tempting.

I think I will be passing on the game, however, for two reasons. First, I’ve been dead wrong on the Saints twice so far, so I need to step back and just observe them to see if they can sustain this level of success. And second, Nick Sirianni has an abysmal track record after Monday Night Football. It’s not a huge sample size, but he’s 1-5 against the spread on the short week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A.J. Brown missed Wednesday’s practice. It would be surprising if he were able to play. The Saints, meanwhile, could be getting Marshon Lattimore back after a limited session on Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: A.J. Brown is out, while Chauncey Gardner-Johnson missed practice Thursday and Friday, so he’s not looking good for this game. On the bright side for Philadelphia, Devin White will be on the field for the first time. I’m still torn on this game. I love the line value with the Eagles, but I worry about their defense being challenged with fixing their problems on a short week.

PLAYER PROP: I like DeVonta Smith over 70.5 receiving yards. Going back to last year, slot receivers have destroyed the Saints. Adam Thielen had 49 yards in Week 1 despite being old and decrepit. CeeDee Lamb had a huge performance last week. Smith, who is playing in the slot this year, should have a massive performance. The best number is over 70.5 receiving yards -117 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: So many smart people I know like the Eagles this week, but I can’t pull the trigger. Philadelphia will be down Devin White in addition to A.J. Brown. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson will play, but it’s doubtful that he’s 100 percent. The sharps bet the Eagles at +3 earlier in the week, but they haven’t touched them at +2.5. You can get a viable +3 at DraftKings for -123 vig, which is worth it. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles are a good team looking to bounce back off a loss, while the Saints just had a blowout victory.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.5.

Computer Model: Saints -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 56% (144,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Nick Sirianni is 1-5 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below. In addition to WalterFootball t-shirts, you can also buy AMC and GameStop stock gear as well!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers are 2-0 after winning in Detroit, so their offense must be very explosive with their two receivers, right? Well, it was in Week 1, but not so much this past Sunday. Despite the win, Tampa Bay tallied just 216 net yards of offense against a team with a struggling secondary. This is not a good sign.

The Buccaneers will face a tougher test this week. Patrick Surtain II is arguably the best cornerback in the NFL at the moment, so he’ll be able to handle Mike Evans. It’ll be up to Baker Mayfield to look elsewhere, which is what he’s done with Chris Godwin, who has played the Cooper Kupp role in Liam Coen’s offense.

Mayfield will be asked to do a lot in this game because he once again won’t get anything out of his running game. The Broncos are currently eighth against the run despite battling Kenneth Walker in Week 1. Rachaad White is struggling to find any running lanes anyway.

DENVER OFFENSE: I would ordinarily hate this matchup for the Broncos. Bo Nix is a mobile quarterback, which normally wouldn’t bode well against Todd Bowles’ defense. Bowels typically devours mobile quarterbacks, as we saw in Week 1 when Jayden Daniels struggled in his debut.

However, the injury situation means that these aren’t nornal circumstances. The Buccaneers were already missing several players in their secondary, including Antoine Winfield. Now, Vita Vea is expected to be sidelined as well. This is obviously a huge presence that will be missed in the defensive interior.

With Vea projected to be sidelined, the Broncos will have a much better time establishing the run against the Buccaneers than they ordinarily would. This will make life for Nix easier as he attempts to exploit Tampa Bay’s injury-ravaged secondary.

RECAP: I find the line movement in this game to be quite humorous. The advance spread was -4.5, and now it’s -7. Yet, the Buccaneers lost another key member of their defense with Vea being sidelined. Why in the world would the Buccaneers be favored by way more than they were a week ago when they were outgained by 240 yards and won’t have one of their top defensive players?

I’m no fan of the Broncos, but I love the value we’re getting with them in this game. Oh, and I don’t like the Buccaneers either. Tampa Bay won at Detroit last week, but was outgained by 240 net yards and one more yard per play. This is a team that has a ton of weakness and one strength, and the Broncos can negate half of it with Surtain shutting down Evans.

Something else to consider here is that this is Week 3. Sean Payton has an abysmal track record in the first two weeks of the season – 3-18-1 against the spread the past 11 years – but tends to get better in Week 3 onward. For whatever reason, Payton always sucks to start the year, but improves his coaching once the season progresses. The Broncos haven’t played well to start the year, but we could see their best game this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Broncos down from +7 to +6.5. I scoured all the sportsbooks to see if there’s a viable +7 still available. There is. You can get +7 -115 at BetMGM, which I’m going to lock in now. I don’t have a promo for BetMGM, but you can get +7 -117 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m glad we locked this in, as Denver fell to +6 with more sharp money coming that way. The Buccaneers will be missing Vita Vea, Antoine Winfield Jr., Luke Goedeke, and Calijah Kancey. That doesn’t sound like a team that should be favored by too many points.

PLAYER PROP: I like Rachaad White under 49.5 rushing yards. White has 31 and 18 rushing yards in his first two games, which is not a fluke. White is not a good runner, and the Buccaneers run block very poorly. Making matters worse for White, he’s dealing with a groin injury and will be battling Denver’s eighth-ranked rush defense. The best number is under 49.5 rushing yards -113 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: DeVaughn Vele is out for fantasy purposes, but that won’t impact my opinion on this game. The sharps bet the Broncos down to +6, which is music to my ears because we locked in +7 earlier. I found one sportsbook that still has +6.5, and that would be +6.5 -112 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Buccaneers, coming off an upset win, may be looking ahead to the Eagles.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -4.5.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -9.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Easy money for the public.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 80% (127,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Road Team is 134-93 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 41-71 ATS at home in the previous 112 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -7.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Sunny, 88 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Will Levis may deplete my savings account by the time the season is finished. He has sabotaged a sure victory and a potential cover/push through two weeks with some bone-headed mistakes. He has truly been horrendous with his decision-making despite looking brilliant at times.

Perhaps the Titans can keep Levis from imploding once again because of their great matchup edge in this game. That would be Tony Pollard going up against Green Bay’s perennially poor ground defense. The Packers couldn’t do anything to stop Saquon Barkley in the opening week, and they’ll have similar issues against the Titans, who run block extremely well.

Levis also has a plus matchup in this contest if he can refrain from giving the ball away to the other team. The Packers have some serious holes in their secondary stemming from Jaire Alexander’s rapid regression, so Calvin Ridley will be able to do some damage.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Malik Willis prevailed last week, but really didn’t have to do very much. He connected on most of his passes, but threw the ball just 14 times. He had the advantage of leaning on a powerful running game, as the Packers rammed the ball down Indianapolis’ throat. Willis was hardly ever in third-and-long situations as a result.

Things will be much different in this game, as the Packers won’t have the same rushing edge they possessed versus the banged-up Colts. Tennessee is habitually stellar versus the run, and they have the personnel to maintain that status this year. They’ll do a much better job of limiting Josh Jacobs than Indianapolis did.

Willis will be asked to do much more in this contest, which will be Green Bay’s undoing. Willis not a good quarterback, and he’ll be tasked with throwing into a secondary comprised of two No. 1 cornerbacks. It’s also worth noting that the Titans are very familiar with Willis, having practiced against him for years.

RECAP: I bet five units on Willis last week. You might be wondering if I’ll be going back to the well. There will be a five-unit wager on this game, but it won’t be on Willis.

Backup quarterbacks have a great track record against non-elite defenses. Over the past several seasons, they’re 29-15 against the spread in such situations. Willis got the 29th cover last week, as Indianapolis’ banged-up stop unit didn’t quite have the edge to stop Green Bay’s offense despite Willis piloting it.

But what about backup quarterbacks against elite defenses? They struggle in those situations, and understandably so. That 29-15 ATS turns into 11-20 ATS, and that number is inflated by situations where the elite defenses were ravaged by injury. For example, Gardner Minshew covered against the Ravens last year, but Baltimore was missing half of its defense.

Willis didn’t have to do much last week besides hand the ball off when the center wasn’t puking on it. He’ll be asked to beat the Titans here, and that is unlikely, given how great Tennessee’s defense is. The Titans are 10th in defensive EPA and could be even higher after battling lesser competition.

Now, I know what you’re thinking: Isn’t Levis going to sabotage another five-unit bet for you? Probably. I’m prepared for it. But if this continues, I’ll at least be able to write a book called the Year of the Bad Beat, which I am already planning based on the preseason and the first two weeks of the season.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: “No Cookie” Jordan Love had a limited practice Wednesday, which is an interesting development. If he plays, I’ll still like the Titans because Love won’t be 100 percent upon rushing back from this injury. We’ll also likely get points, which is a plus!

SATURDAY NOTES: Jordan Love is listed as questionable after being limited all week. I have my doubts that he’ll play, but again, if he suits up, he won’t be 100 percent against this incredible defense.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The good news is that “No Cookie” Jordan Love is out. The bad news is that the sharps bet the Titans up to -3. I can’t find any viable -2.5 lines. I still love Tennessee at -3 though. The best line is -3 +100 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Titans -2.5.

Computer Model: Packers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

As expected, tons of public money on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 73% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Matt LaFleur is 50-35 ATS in the regular season.

Titans are 30-20 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Titans -1.5.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Slight chance of thunderstorms, 90 degrees. Light wind.