NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2024 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
2024 NFL Picks: 18-25-1 (-$1,445)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 3 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

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CAROLINA OFFENSE: Dave Canales has seen enough. Bryce Young was pitiful through two games, especially last week when he refused to throw deep and achieved just seven first downs. Canales made the correct decision to bench Young in favor of Andy Dalton.

Dalton is a better quarterback, even at this stage of his career. I’ve seen some concern about his impending health because of Carolina’s offensive line, but this is a misconception because the Panthers actually block rather well for the most part. Left tackle Ikem Ekwonu is a liability, but the Panthers are strong at the other four positions up front. It should be noted, however, that Ekwonu has quite the mismatch against Maxx Crosby, but the Panthers can help him with double teams.

If teams can negate the strength of the Raiders, their pass rush, then they can have some success against this defense. The Raiders haven’t been very good against the run either, so Carolina’s new powerful guards, Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, could open up decent running lanes for Chuba Hubbard to help keep attention away from Dalton.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: When people asked me if I was afraid of betting on Young last week, I told them I was more terrified of the defense. Carolina’s “stop” unit is in shambles after losing Brian Burns in the offseason, and then D.J. Wonnum and Derrick Brown to injury.

With Burns, Wonnum and Brown unavailable, the Panthers have just seven quarterback hurries all year. That’s pathetic. Many teams are already in the 20s or even 30s in that department, yet Carolina hasn’t reached double digits yet. The Raiders don’t block well, but they won’t be threatened by Carolina’s non-existent pass rush. Gardner Minshew will have plenty of time in the pocket to locate his stellar weapons.

The Raiders also figure to run well, which is something they haven’t done this year. However, they’ve gone against the Chargers and Ravens, both of whom possess top-four rush defenses. The Panthers, missing Brown, are 28th.

RECAP: There are three backup quarterbacks playing this week, two of whom will be battling defenses I consider to be in the top 12. This is one example of that, as Dalton will be going against the Raiders, who were seventh in defensive EPA last year. The Raiders are 13th at the moment, but I believe they will ultimately be in the top 12.

Why is this significant? Well, if you missed the Packers-Titans write-up, backup quarterbacks playing against top 12 defenses have an awful track record. Dalton will have his hands full with the Raiders, and it’s not like Carolina’s horrible defense projects well against all of Las Vegas’ dynamic skill players.

It feels weird to be going against the Panthers when I’ve been calling for Young to be benched, but this is the right decision. Dalton is just in too rough of a spot here, so the Raiders seem like a great play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps continue to bet the Panthers, dropping this line down to +5. I guess they don’t care about a backup quarterback going against an elite defense, though it could be argued that Andy Dalton is a big upgrade over Bryce Young. I’m actually going to cancel my projected wager. Not because of Dalton specifically, but I think the Panthers could be going all out with the quarterback change, kind of like teams do whenever there’s a coach firing because they’ll be looking to prove that they weren’t the problem. Plus, the Raiders are coming off a huge win across the country. It’s just not a great motivational spot.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps were betting the Panthers earlier in the week, but other pro money came in on the Raiders to push the line back to -6. I’m not betting this game now, but if you are or plan on doing so, keep an eye on Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins. Both are questionable after being limited all week.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Given that Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins are banged up, I’d like to change my pick to Carolina. I won’t be betting this one either way though.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins will play, but they may not be 100 percent. The sharps bet the Panthers at numbers above +6. The best line is +5.5 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Panthers players could be motivated because of the quarterback change, while the Raiders had a great comeback victory versus the Ravens across the country.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Raiders -5.5.

Computer Model: Raiders -9.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

The sharps bet the Panthers down when the Andy Dalton decision was announced.

Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 77% (96,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Raiders are 19-34 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Raiders are 37-54 ATS after a win since 2009.

Opening Line: Raiders -5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa is out for the foreseeable future, so Skylar Thompson will start. There’s been lots of doom and gloom surrounding the Dolphins in the wake of this injury, and for good reason. However, Miami still has the personnel to win some games with Thompson.

Having De’Von Achane in the backfield will certainly help. The Dolphins did not have a great game on Thursday night, to put it nicely, but it was cool to see them use Achane so creatively. Achane has a great matchup in this game because the Seahawks have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. They couldn’t get off the field versus Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson, thanks in part to Uchenna Nwosu’s absence, so how will they deal with Achane?

It’s not like the Seahawks can focus on containing Achane either. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are still massive threats. The Seahawks haven’t dealt with potent receivers yet, as the best player at the position they’ve faced so far this year was Courtland Sutton in Week 1. Hill and Waddle should still perform well, given the quarterback change.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Though the Seahawks couldn’t get off the field against Stevenson and Gibson, they still managed to prevail with D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba making big plays. Tyler Lockett was also huge in overtime.

The Dolphins were supposed to be much better against the pass than they’ve been through two weeks, but Jalen Ramsey has not lived up to the massive contract he recently signed. Ramsey has been torched through two weeks, which is a concern against Seattle’s talented receivers. Kendall Fuller has played well, but Ramsey will need to step up in this tough matchup.

Miami was especially poor at defending James Cook last week. This is why Kenneth Walker’s availability will be crucial. Walker may miss this game, and if he does, Zach Charbonnet won’t be a viable replacement because he’s not very good. Walker, on the other hand, could dominate Miami.

RECAP: When I announced that the Packers were one of my top picks last week, I had quite a few people question it because of Malik Willis. How could I possibly bet so much on Willis? Well, backup quarterbacks tend to do quite well against non-elite defenses. Over the past few years, reserve quarterbacks are 29-15 against the spread versus defenses that aren’t ranked in the top 12.

The question is: Are the Seahawks considered a top-12 defense? They’re seventh in defensive EPA at the moment, but their two opponents this year have been the Broncos and Patriots, and they had trouble getting New England’s offense off the field. Mike Macdonald is an excellent defensive coach, but I don’t consider Seattle’s defense an elite unit.

With that in mind, I have a lot of interest in the Dolphins. They’ve become big underdogs in this matchup after being a road favorite on the advance spread. The advance line was Miami -1.5, so this spread has moved six points for a quarterback injury, which is absurd. No quarterback is worth six points, except maybe Patrick Mahomes.

Furthermore, the Seahawks are in a tough spot. They won an overtime game on the East Coast. Now, they have to travel back to the West Coast, play this non-conference game, and then travel back to the Eastern Time Zone to battle the Lions next week.

I bet five units on Willis last week, and I’ll have five units on Thompson. Maybe I’m wrong about Seattle’s defense, but even if I am, the Seahawks being in a bad motivational state could get us the cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Seahawks had nine players miss Wednesday’s practice, including D.K. Metcalf. This is music to my ears because I already love the Dolphins.

SATURDAY NOTES: D.K. Metcalf will play, but the Seahawks will be down several players, including Uchenna Nwosu and Jerome Baker. Their run defense will continue to suffer without them. De’Von Achane looks great in this matchup.

ALT. LINE BET: I’m going to bet the Dolphins at -2.5 rather than the moneyline. The best number is +215 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps bet this line down to +4. I’m not seeing any viable +4.5 lines anywhere. You can get +4.5 -115 at FanDuel, but that’s too expensive.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, the sharps bet the Dolphins down to +4, but not at +4. The best line is +4 -108 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Dolphins.

The Dolphins will have to play at 110 percent for their new quarterback. The Seahawks, coming off an overtime win across the country, play at Detroit next week.

The Spread. Edge: Dolphins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -1.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -6.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 54% (93,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 59-46 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Seahawks are 30-19 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Seahawks -6.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 65 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions scored just 16 points against a Tampa Bay defense missing several starters in the secondary, so based on that point total, it could be assumed that the offense struggled as a whole. This would not be correct, as Detroit produced 463 net yards of offense, but mustered only 16 points because of mistakes and sloppy play, perhaps stemming from being unfocused after a thrilling overtime victory.

The Lions should be able to get back on track in this game. They have dynamic weapons all over the place, including the receiving corps, as Jameson Williams and Tim Patrick have strengthened that group. This is significant because the Cardinals have a dreadful group of cornerbacks. They won’t be able to deal with those two players and Amon-Ra St. Brown; not to mention Sam LaPorta attacking the middle of the field.

The Cardinals will also have to deal with Detroit’s two talented backs. They struggled to contain James Cook in Week 1 before having success against Kyren Williams and his banged-up offensive line this past Sunday. The Lions run block extremely well, so this will be Arizona’s toughest test to date.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kyler Murray got off to a hot start against Buffalo to start the year, but fizzled in the second half. He and Marvin Harrison Jr. struggled to find any sort of chemistry. Some even wondered if Harrison was going to be a bust after he was clocked running extremely slow routes.

This turned out to be nonsense, of course. Murray and Harrison got on the same page rather quickly, and they were able to torch the Rams rather mercilessly. The Lions have some major problems at cornerback, as rookie Terrion Arnold has struggled through two games. Murray is mostly well protected, so he’ll have enough time to light up Detroit’s secondary.

The Cardinals won’t have nearly as much success running the ball. James Conner has been terrific since the middle of last season, but this is a very difficult matchup for him. Detroit has one of the top run-stuffing units in the NFL, so Conner will have to deal his damage as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: The Lions lost to the Buccaneers, but the final score wasn’t indicative of how the teams performed. The Lions outgained the Buccaneers by 240 net yards and averaged one more yard per play. They suffered a defeat because they shot themselves in the foot one too many times, as they were unfocused following an overtime victory against their former quarterback.

Coming off a loss, the Lions will be more focused, especially after seeing the Cardinals throttle the Rams. They can’t possibly look past Arizona now, so we’ll see full effort from them. We’ll also see great line value, as the advance spread on this game was just Detroit -4.5. Thanks to last week’s results, one of which was misleading, this spread dropped to -3. This is tremendous value, as we’re now getting the key number of three with this great Detroit team. I plan on betting a few units on the Lions.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Five Detroit players missed Wednesday’s practice, including three defensive backs and Alex Anzalone. I’m not excited about backing a road favorite with so many injuries, so hopefully the Lions get some players back later in the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Lions have several players on the injury report. Ifeatu Melifonwu is out, while Graham Glasgow, Alex Anzalone and Terrion Arnold are all questionable. The Cardinals have an issue as well. They’re already down Jonah Williams, but Williams’ backup, Kelvin Beachum, was downgraded each day in practice. He seems unlikely to play after a DNP on Friday. I’m sticking with my three-unit wager on the Lions.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Lions have some injury question marks heading into this game, so we’ll have to see what the inactives look like.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Alex Anzalone is out for the Lions, which is not ideal. It won’t get me off this three-unit bet, however, especially with the Cardinals missing Kelvin Beachum. The sharps haven’t touched this one. The best line is -3 +100 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -4.5.

Computer Model: Lions -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

The Cardinals are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 56% (120,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Cardinals are 47-33 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Lions -4.5.

Opening Total: 53.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Anyone surprised by the Ravens’ loss to the Raiders wasn’t paying attention to what happened to them in the offseason. They lost three offensive linemen and didn’t properly replace the departures. They’ve struggled to block through two weeks, and it showed mostly when Lamar Jackson took a huge sack in the fourth quarter this past Sunday.

Jackson will once again be pressured rather heavily. The Cowboys have the personnel to generate lots of heat on opposing quarterbacks, though we didn’t exactly see that against the Saints. Still, this looks to be a great matchup for Dallas.

All hope isn’t lost for the Ravens, however. The Cowboys are horrendous at stopping the run, so Derrick Henry could have one of his better performances this year. Henry is washed up, but he’ll have some success against Dallas, picking up where Alvin Kamara left off last week.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Ravens aren’t the only team in this matchup that has offensive line concerns. Only one blocker (Tyler Smith) is performing on a high level for the Cowboys, who sorely miss Tyron Smith. Rookie left tackle Tyler Guyton has been a human turnstile thus far, while veteran guard Zack Martin, who isn’t as good as he used to be, got banged up in last week’s game.

The Ravens’ defense isn’t quite what it once was, but it can still generate a great deal of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Baltimore has nine sacks through two games, and it’ll add to that number once it’s done with Dak Prescott, who won’t be able to lean on his poor rushing attack.

While Prescott will struggle with pressure, he’ll be able to deliver some strikes to CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, who is expected back this week. The Ravens have some major problems at cornerback and linebacker, so Lamb and Ferguson should be able to duplicate the performances that Davante Adams and Brock Bowers enjoyed last week.

RECAP: As the Dan Campbell Burner Twitter account said to me yesterday, “Ravens vs. Cowboys next week, battle of the overrated.” It’s true. I’ve been touting the Ravens and Cowboys as two of the overrated teams on my list all year. I’ve bet a combined eight units against them this season, winning all eight.

Unfortunately, we can’t fade both of them once again this week because they’re playing against each other. If I had to choose, I’d side with Baltimore. The Cowboys haven’t been great against scrambling quarterbacks, so they could struggle against Jackson. Also, Dallas has a long history of performing poorly against good teams. The Cowboys crush the crappy opponents, but can’t beat good ones. I’m not sure if the Ravens are good anymore, but maybe the Cowboys will think they are. I don’t know. Also, Dallas has to play on Thursday night, so that’s something, although not too much of a thing because the team is an underdog coming off an ugly loss.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Two major players were kept out of practice. Both CeeDee Lamb and Ronnie Stanley missed Wednesday’s practice. Lamb is the huge name, but Stanley being sidelined would be a huge blow to a Baltimore offensive line that is already in shambles.

SATURDAY NOTES: Neither CeeDee Lamb nor Ronnie Stanley was on the final injury report. In fact, both teams are relatively healthy, minus the pass rushers Dallas has on injured reserve. I’m 51-49 Baltimore right now.

PLAYER PROP: I like Lamar Jackson over 53.5 rushing yards. Going over rushing yards with mobile quarterbacks in big games is something I always like to do, and this qualifies as a big game for Jackson, as it’s the Tom Brady-announced key contest in the 4:25 window where Baltimore is trying to avoid an 0-3 start. The Cowboys have struggled versus mobile quarterbacks over the years. The best number is over 53.5 -110 at BetMGM.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still have no opinion on this game. I’ve seen many people say, “There’s no way the Ravens fall to 0-3!” Of course they can fall to 0-3 because they’re not a good team!

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been some sharp money on the Ravens pushing this line to -1.5. The best line is Ravens -1.5 -104 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -1.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 58% (119,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Lamar Jackson is 11-2 ATS as an underdog. ???

Mike McCarthy is 7-3 ATS after losing as a favorite as head coach of the Cowboys.

Opening Line: Cowboys -1.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: If everyone on this side of the ball is hurt for the Rams, does it even count as an offense? They’ve been crushed by injuries, losing both of their receivers and several interior offensive linemen. Even Matthew Stafford was limping around in the second half of the loss to Arizona.

Stafford being hobbled at all would be the cherry on top of this injury disaster. He relies so much on Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and now both will be sidelined for an extended period of time. All Stafford has left are Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson, and promising rookie Jordan Whittington. Stafford can at least be protected well on the edge, as Alaric Jackson will be back from suspension. Still, this is a matchup Nick Bosa will win.

Stafford can hope to lean on Kyren Williams, but the run blocking simply won’t be there. As mentioned, multiple interior offensive linemen are sidelined, so it’ll be difficult for Williams to find any rushing room.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The injuries have extended to this side of the ball as well. The Rams just lost top defensive back John Johnson, which is crushing because they were already missing several cornerbacks. It’s fortunate for the Rams that Deebo Samuel is sidelined, but they’re still going to have a tough time defending Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings.

Despite the secondary issues, the worst part of this Rams defense is the middle of the field. The Rams have some of the worst linebacker play in the NFL, which is a nightmare for this matchup because the 49ers love attacking the middle of the field more than anything. Jordan Mason and George Kittle both figure to thrive.

The Rams can only hope that their pass rush can come through with some lots of sacks and pressures. This is the one remaining strength of the Rams defense, but it’s not like Brock Purdy is protected poorly.

RECAP: The Rams may have had a chance if they were completely healthy. They’re missing so many players, however. Their top two receivers, the interior of their offensive line, and their entire secondary has been completely ravaged by injury.

Even without the injuries, the Rams were a bit behind the eight ball. They’ve been dominated by the 49ers in recent years, while San Francisco will be focused after losing to the Vikings last week. Plus, Stafford was limping around during the second half of last week’s game, so there’s a chance that he’s not 100 percent.

This spread may seem too high, but I don’t think it’s high enough. Given the injuries and the matchup domination, it could be argued that this line should be in the double digits.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Cooper Kupp was not placed on injured reserve, but he didn’t practice Wednesday. It would be shocking if he played. Meanwhile, Talanoa Hufanga will be back after practicing fully on Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: The 49ers looked so great, but there are way too many injuries to bet them on this high line. George Kittle and Deebo Samuel will be sidelined in addition to Christian McCaffrey. Nick Bosa was limited on Thursday and Friday. Charvarius Ward is iffy to play. The Rams are in rough shape as well, but given all of San Francisco’s injuries, I can’t make a wager on either side.

PLAYER PROP: I like Brandon Aiyuk over 72.5 receiving yards. With Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle out for the 49ers, all the production will funnel to Brandon Aiyuk, who will look to pick up where Marvin Harrison Jr. left off against the Rams’ injury-ravaged secondary last week. The best number is over 72.5 -115 at BetMGM.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Nick Bosa will play, but we’ll see about Charvarius Ward. It’s a shame that the 49ers are so banged up because I’d like them for a wager otherwise.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nick Bosa and Charvarius Ward will play, but that didn’t stop the sharps from hammering the Rams at anything above +6. The best line is +6 -110 at many sportsbook, including Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -4.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Easy money, apparently.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 77% (100,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 27 of the last 37 meetings, excluding the 2012 tie and a 2023 game where both teams sat starters.

Brock Purdy is 20-5 SU, 14-11 ATS.

Kyle Shanahan is 10-4 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: 49ers -4.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs lost yet another skill player. Already down Marquise Brown and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City saw Isiah Pacheco suffer an injury that’ll cost him 6-8 weeks. Carson Steele and Samaje Perine will combine to take his job.

The Falcons can be beaten on the ground, as both Saquon Barkley and Najee Harris performed well against them in the first two weeks of the season. The Falcons lost top linebacker Nate Landman to injury, so they’ve struggled to stop rushing attacks as a consequence.

Atlanta is at least capable against the pass, particularly when it comes to generating pressure on the quarterback and covering the top outside receiver with A.J. Terrell. The Chiefs struggled to protect against the Bengals, so this is an area the Falcons can exploit. Terrell can also slow down Xavier Worthy, but Rashee Rice figures to compensate for that with his great play in the slot. The Falcons have a dreadful slot cornerback who won’t be able to deal with Rice.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins has one of the greatest dichotomies in the NFL when dealing with pressure and being kept clean. Cousins was woeful in Week 1, but thrived against the Eagles, who couldn’t place any pressure on the veteran quarterback.

There’s a better chance Cousins will see a good deal of pressure in this contest. The Chiefs have generated six sacks through two weeks and have generated a very high number of hurries. Chris Jones is a monster in the interior and cannot be stopped.

There’s an avenue for success for the Falcons, however, and that would be with the run. The Chiefs are much weaker versus the rush than the pass, and yet they’ve yet to see a stout ground attack thus far. They’ve faced a decrepit Derrick Henry and a pedestrian Zack Moss, so they’ll have their hands full with Bijan Robinson.

RECAP: I heard a great metaphor describing the Chiefs while listening to one of the millions of YouTube football videos following the Week 2 games. I can’t remember who said it, so apologies for the lack of attribution, but this person described Kansas City as a cat playing with its food during the early portion of the season. This was great because the Chiefs struggle to cover the spread during the beginning of the year because they like to experiment and don’t take the opposition all too seriously.

With that in mind, what’s the incentive for the Chiefs to go all out in this game? Sure, they’re on national TV, but that’s old hat for them. They know nothing about this NFC opponent, and they’re coming off two big victories over the Ravens and Bengals, so I don’t think we’ll see 100-percent effort from them.

The Falcons, meanwhile, looked like a great potential bet when they were losing to the Eagles. However, they prevailed at the last second and celebrated in the locker room as if they won the Super Bowl. This makes them just as unappealing, as does the lost value with this spread dropping from +4.5 on the advance line to +3.5. I’m going to side with the Chiefs, but because they tend to play with their food, I’m not going to bet them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I have nothing to say from an injury perspective, and there hasn’t been any sharp money on either side. I don’t plan on making a bet on this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Outside of the players on injured reserve, no one in this game has an injury designation, which is a rarity, even in Week 3. The sharps bet the Falcons at +3.5.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going to start with Carson Steele under 45.5 rushing yards. This seems like a high number for Steele against Atlanta’s ninth-ranked run defense. We don’t even know if Steele is going to be the primary back, or if he’s going to share the workload with one or more other backs. The best number is under 45.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Rashee Rice is the one over player we’ll be betting. Rice has been a monster through two games, and he has been given more room to work underneath with the opposition being distracted by Xavier Worthy. He’ll have a very easy matchup against Atlanta’s poor slot cornerback. The best number is over 75.5 -115 at BetMGM.

Speaking of Worthy, we’re going under 39.5 receiving yards with him. He had so much hype after the first game because he scored two touchdowns, but he touched the ball three times! Worthy has gotten just seven total targets through two games, so that doesn’t sound like someone who will be hitting the over, especially against A.J. Terrell. The best number is under 39.5 -110 at Bet Rivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

I also like Travis Kelce under 48.5 receiving yards. Kelce is coasting through the regular season once again, as he’s an older player who is distracted by his famous girlfriend. The best number is under 48.5 receiving yards -115 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

We’re going to parlay these four props. This $25 same-game parlay pays $217 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I may add a Kyle Pitts over prop bet before the game, and I may parlay that with the Drake London under because the Chiefs tend to double No. 1 receivers and keep tight ends open.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was sharp money on the Falcons earlier in the week, but a bit of sharp action has come back on the Chiefs. I’m going to bet a unit on Kansas City, as I want to fade the Falcons coming off a win on a short week. I wouldn’t make this play at -3.5 though. The best line is -3 -115 at BetMGM and BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY II: Here’s another same-game parlay that’s only two legs. I’m going to bet Kyle Pitts over 40.5 receiving yards and Drake London under 62.5 receiving yards. There’s correlation here, as the Chiefs like to double team the best option, which they could deem to be London. If this happens, Pitts could have a big game. This $100 parlay pays $210 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -4.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Plenty of action on the Chiefs early, but it’s come close to a reasonable percentage.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 58% (177,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 86-24 SU, 60-49 ATS (48-35 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -4.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills had some major question marks on offense heading into the season, but so far, so good for them. They’ve scored into the 30s in both games, thanks to the brilliance of Josh Allen and James Cook. Who needs receiver chemistry when you have those two making huge plays?

Allen projects very well as a runner once again, but Cook may not have the same level of success on the ground. The Jaguars have been excellent against the run, holding De’Von Achane in check as a runner back in Week 1. It should be noted, however, that Achane picked up chunks of yardage as a receiver out of the backfield in that matchup.

The Jaguars are weakest against aerial attacks, thanks in part to Tyson Campbell being sidelined. This is where Allen’s chemistry with his receivers comes into play. If Allen were comfortable throwing to his new receiving corps, he could really attack Jacksonville, but it’s unclear if he’ll be able to do that this early into the season.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence has not developed under Doug Pederson, so it’s time for the Jaguars to evaluate their head-coaching situation. Lawrence missed a number of throws and showed poor pocket awareness in the loss to the Browns.

Lawrence was under heavy pressure in that game, and that will once again be the case in Buffalo. Von Miller is finally healthy after dealing with his torn ACL, so he and Gregory Rousseau will collapse the pocket and make Lawrence very uncomfortable once again.

The Jaguars can counter this pressure by getting Travis Etienne heavily involved. Despite the loss, the Dolphins did a great job of attacking the middle of Buffalo’s defense with Achane. The Bills are down two linebackers and have horrid safety play, so Jacksonville should get a great performance out of its dynamic running back.

RECAP: The Bills are coming off a statement victory against the Dolphins. They looked great in Miami, slaughtering their rival by three touchdowns. However, it’s likely that this was more on Miami being in rough shape. Buffalo is still a team in flux in regard to Allen developing chemistry with his receivers and the defense overcoming injuries. I’m not convinced that they’re as good as last week’s score says they are. At least not right now.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, are desperate. This is a must-win game for them, or they’ll fall to 0-3. The motivational angle certainly favors them, especially when considering that the Bills are coming off their blowout win versus Miami and have to prepare for a battle against the Ravens next week.

With the Bills still developing chemistry and figuring out their defense, I like the Jaguars with the points. The advance line on this game was Jacksonville +3.5, so it’s nice to be getting some value with the Jaguars.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are no practice reports quite yet, but there is sharp money on the Jaguars, who will be desperate. The Bills, meanwhile, are overrated following their blowout victory versus Miami.

SATURDAY NOTES: Outside of Terrel Bernard and Taron Johnson, there aren’t any big names on the injury report.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still like the Jaguars with their backs against the wall. I hope we can find a +6, but I have my doubts.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Thus far, the sharps are on the Jaguars, while the public is on the Bills. I’m still not seeing a viable +6, but I’ll keep looking.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going to start with Josh Allen under rushing yards. People love to bet on scrambling quarterbacks, but Allen doesn’t like to run very much at the beginning of the season, and there won’t be much pressure for him to do so at 2-0. Plus, the Jaguars held him to 14 rushing yards in last year’s victory. The best number is under 32.5 rushing yards -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

I like the Khalil Shakir under 46.5 receiving yards. It’s a good matchup for Shakir, who led the Bills in receiving last week. However, Shakir played just half the snaps. The best number is under 46.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Conversely, I think James Cook goes over on receiving yards. Cook is used heavily in the passing game because of the issues Buffalo has at receiver. The best number is over 18.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

And finally, I also like Travis Etienne’s over receiving yards. The Bills are missing two linebackers, so they’ll have problems containing Etienne as a receiver. The best number is 20.5 receiving yards -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

I’m going to parlay all four together. This $25 parlay pays $252.08 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: So much for a +6 line. The sharps have aggressively bet the Jaguars down to +4 everywhere. The best line is +4 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jaguars.

The Bills are coming off a big divisional win on national TV, while the Jaguars will be desperate to avoid 0-3.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -3.5.

Computer Model: Bills -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Tons of money on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 74% (255,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

Jaguars are 62-107 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Bills are 13-38 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.

Opening Line: Bills -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Likely rain, 63 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Cincinnati, where tonight, the Washington Redskins take on the Cincinnati Reds. Guys, I have almost important news to tell you. When I saw Joe Burrow, I was in love. Not real love because he’s a Bengal and not a member of my Philadelphia Eagles, the greatest team to ever live on the planet even though Kirk Cousins cheated against them, but love as in admiration of his hairdo. Guys, when I was a young boy, I wanted to dye my hair blond like Eminem, but Mother said he produced satanic music. Now that Joe Burrow has copied Eminem, perhaps Mother will allow me to dye my hair that way. What do you think, guys? Will Mother allow me to get the Eminem hairdo like Joe Burrow, especially now that I’m a 73-year-old grown man?

Emmitt: Thanks, Kain. I very confusion again like I was a long time ago, so this deja view all over again. When I hear that Eminem making music, I say this gonna be a good commercial for the candy because the red guy and the tall yellow guy real funny, but people say that M&M a real person, so I ask themselfs how a couple of candy become a real person maybe because it like the guy who have the wood doll name Pocahontas who comed to real life but if he lie, his nose shrink.

Reilly: Emmitt, Pocahontas’ nose definitely did not shrink. She was painting all the colors of the wind. I know this because Mother let us watch movies in homeschool class one day, and she put on Pocahontas because something with real-life actors like Santa Clause or Draft Day would be too scary for me and give me nightmares.

Tollefson: Ah, the movies. That takes me back. Remember when you’d take a date to the movies, and you’d sit in the back and cut a hole in the popcorn so that your date would suck on your “hot dog?” And then, you’d chloroform her and lock her in your dungeon so you’d be able to force her to cook and clean naked for you? Those were the good old days.

Reilly: Tolly, why would you put a hot dog in your tub of popcorn? Everyone knows that hot dogs and popcorn don’t mix. Now that we got that settled, let’s go down to Charissa Thompson, who has another world leader with her.

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. In preparation for this game, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase enjoyed each other in a human centipede. I’m joined here by Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He’s the latest foreign leader to join us to advocate for NFL games in his country ever since Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, how are you enjoying the pre-game atmosphere?

Volodymyr Zelenskyy: Plleeaasseee giiivee meeeee mooonneeyyyy. I nneeeeedd moooonnneeeyyyyy.

Charissa Thompson: Is this money to build a football stadium with real turf, so you can host a football game without players sliding around as if they were on ice skates?

Volodymyr Zelenskyy: Noooo I nneeeeed mooonneeey to buyy anootherrr hoooousseeee in Miiiammiii and moooore clooothess fooor wiiiffee. Plleeaasseee giiive meeee mooore moooooneeey.

Reilly: President Zelenskyy, I’m sorry to say this because the media told me to love Ukraine and respect your leadership, but when I need money from Mother, I do chores like cleaning the windows, dusting the shelves, and putting my toys away. I tried to mow the lawn once, but Mother said that was too dangerous for someone who is a blossoming flower like me. Maybe you should do stuff to earn money. What do you think, Camel Toe Harris? What can President Zelenskyy do to earn his money?

Kamala Harris: Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country. Russia is a powerful country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine. So, basically, that’s wrong, and it goes against everything that we stand for.

Reilly: That’s what you said last week, Camel Toe! Have you been listening to anything we’ve been saying, Camel Toe? Camel Toe? Camel Toe! I’m talking to you, Camel Toe!

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, I need to discuss something mentioned earlier, which is Pocahontas, which is a great nickname I made up, frankly the best nickname anyone has ever made up, and I made it up for Elizabeth Warren, or Senator Pocahontas, as I call her, and I do so brilliantly if I might add, Pocahontas, the fake Indian senator, who pretends to be Indian so she can get benefits minorities get, but she’s not Indian at all, in fact I’m more Indian than her, and I’m not even Indian, but speaking of people who are not Indian, Kamala, or as she sometimes calls herself, Kuhmela, because she’s so fake that she doesn’t even know her name because she’s a total disgrace and a total fraud, Kuhmela used to say she’s Indian, so much so that the illegal immigrants from Haiti were eating her Pocahontas statue, that’s how Indian she claimed to be, but she’s not Indian anymore because she needs the black vote, so now she’s black, but if she’s elected – frankly, that’s ridiculous to say because she won’t be elected, but they could always cheat in the election, which is why we need to be too big to steal – if she’s elected, she’ll go back to being Indian and having Pocahontas statues, because she’s a total loser and a total disgrace.

Wolfley: DONALD, I HAVE FACT CHECKED YOU IN MY HEAD, AND EVERYTHING YOU HAVE SAID IS WRONG. SORRY, I MERGED WITH DAVID MUIR AFTER I HELD UP A MIRROR WITH THREE LIPS AND SUCKED HIS SOUL INTO IT.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! Will someone please convince Mother to let me dye my hair like Eminem and Joe Burrow!? New Daddy, can you convince Mother?

Jay Cutler: OK, I’ll tell her to buy you one of that guy’s CDs.

Reilly: New Daddy, no, I wasn’t talking ab- wait- yes, YES! I’m not allowed to have Eminem’s CDs or cassette tapes because Mother said it’s satanic music, but maybe you can convince her it’s not!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about has-been rappers, Kevin. You’ve already mentioned Eminem, Kevin. Let’s throw in MC Hammer, Kevin. What do you think about Vanilla Ice, Kevin? Can I get your take on Fat Joe, Kevin? Care to share your thoughts on Timbaland, Kevin? How about Silkk the Shocker, Kevin? We can touch on Kris Kross, Kevin. Let’s segue to Jay-Z, Kevin. He’s married to Beyonce, Kevin, and you’ll never marry anyone, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I WILL MARRY SOMEONE AFTER I IMPRESS HER WITH MY EMINEM AND JOE BURROW HAIRDO! We’ll be back after this!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I was skeptical that the Bengals could keep pace with the Chiefs because I was worried about Joe Burrow’s wrist. This injury hindered him in the opener, so if it persisted, he wouldn’t be able to engage in a shootout with Kansas City.

Burrow, however, proved that he is healthy with a brilliant performance this past Sunday. Unless this was a fluke, Burrow will be able to light up the Redskins. Washington has the worst secondary in the NFL, as it allowed Daniel Jones to perform on a high level last week. Burrow, with an improving Ja’Marr Chase and a potentially available Tee Higgins, will be able to torch this horrible defensive backfield.

The Redskins should do well against the run, but it’s not like their defensive front will produce much pressure on Burrow. They couldn’t even get to Jones, so Burrow will have all the time he needs to attack the Redskins.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Jayden Daniels had a terrific rushing performance last week. He bewildered the Giants linebackers en route to a victory. The stat box also shows that he completed a high percentage of his passes, so he was great all around, right?

Well, Daniels thrived for a rookie, but there were some flaws. Daniels threw mostly checkdowns and took plenty of sacks. His exterior protection on the offensive line is rather poor, which bodes poorly in this matchup because of the talent the Bengals have on the edge.

The Redskins have an advantage on this side of the ball, and that would be the ground attack. Cincinnati’s rush defense has struggled in the wake of D.J. Reader’s departure. Brian Robinson could do well, but that would require the Bengals not jumping out to a huge lead and eliminating Washington’s running game.

RECAP: I was hoping the Bengals wouldn’t look good last week so we’d get a good number with them in this contest. The advance spread on this game was -7, but it’s crossed that key number and gone to -7.5 because the Bengals nearly defeated the Chiefs. This loss of value is a bummer because a Cincinnati blowout loss to Kansas City may have dropped this spread to -6.5 or even -6.

I like the Bengals to rebound off their 0-2 start because they’ll be desperate. They also have a great matchup here with their receivers going up against Washington’s horrible cornerbacks, while their edge rush should have a field day versus Washington’s poor tackles. Burrow also has a great track record bouncing back off a loss. However, we’re not getting any key numbers, which makes it more likely that the Redskins will be able to achieve a back-door cover. I am worried enough about that to stay off this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no injury report for this game yet either. There hasn’t been any sharp money on either side yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tee Higgins has been limited both days in practice. The Redskins will be hoping he isn’t available because their miserable secondary can’t even contain Ja’Marr Chase by himself.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Tee Higgins is not on the injury report, which is obviously significant, especially against Washington’s woeful secondary.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: The Bengals are -7 -108 at Bookmaker. If you like them, I’d lock them in right now. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Ja’Marr Chase has disappointed through two weeks, but this will be his best matchup of the year. We’re getting a relatively low number because of what transpired in Weeks 1 and 2, but Chase should go off tonight. The best number is over 79.5 receiving yards -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Chiefs double teamed Chase, allowing Mike Gesicki to go nuts. Things will go back to normal tonight. I’m expecting some major regression from Gesicki, especially with Tee Higgins back in the lineup. Plus, the Redskins have played tight ends well thus far. The best number is under 30.5 receiving yards -125 at BetMGM.

The Bengals struggle against the run, so I like Brian Robinson to go over his rushing yards. Cincinnati will be down several defensive tackles tonight, while Washington’s interior blocking is excellent. The best number is over 53.5 rushing yards -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Conversely, Zack Moss could struggle. The Redskins are much better against the run than the pass, and Moss isn’t very good anyway. The best number is under 48.5 rushing yards -110 at FanDuel.

I’m parlaying all four together. This $25 parlay pays $224.73 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is all over the Bengals, but the sharps haven’t touched this game. If you want to bet the Bengals, you can get -7 -116 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.

The Bengals will desperate to avoid an 0-3 start, but they could be a bit flat after blowing the Kansas City game.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -9.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -7.

Computer Model: Bengals -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

The public loves the Bengals again.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 77% (237,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Joe Burrow is 36-19 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-5 ATS otherwise).

Joe Burrow is 15-6 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Bengals -7.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 77 degrees. Light wind.