NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2024 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
2024 NFL Picks: 12-16 (-$50)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 2 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

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Week 1 Analysis: The good news is that we had a winning week to start off the year (+$325), thanks to our successful NFL Pick of the Month. The bad news is that we suffered a brutal beat in the Titans-Bears game. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Chiefs, 4 units (win): A nice way to start the season. John Harbaugh nearly gave me a heart attack when he called for two at the end. Luckily, Isaiah Likely was out of bounds. As a bonus, we hit our same-game parlay.

Panthers, 4 units (loss): Bryce Young is actually that bad. Wow. The Panthers made some great upgrades this offseason, yet none of it mattered.

Bengals, 3 units (loss): I’m never betting Joe Burrow in Weeks 1-2 ever again. What a complete no-show.

Titans, 5 units (loss): This was a bad beat for the ages. The Titans almost doubled the Bears in yards. They had a 17-0 lead as four-point underdogs. A blocked punt and several turnovers allowed the Bears to cover. All Will Levis had to do in the fourth quarter was hand the ball off to Tony Pollard, and the Titans would have won, but no. He had to be the hero for some reason even though his team was ahead. This was a painful loss, as a cover here would’ve allowed us to go +$1,365 on the week.

Cardinals, 8 units (win): The Cardinals blew a 17-3 lead and nearly failed to cover as 6.5-point underdogs. A bad beat here would have prompted another rant.

Raiders, 4 units (loss): What is it with quarterbacks committing turnovers while ahead? Gardner Minshew did this as well. The Raiders were winning for most of the game, yet somehow lost 22-10. I wouldn’t call this a bad beat, but it was a frustrating result.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: So far, so good with Josh Allen and his new receiving corps. Allen misfired on just five occasions in the opening-week victory against the Cardinals, as he showed some nice rapport with rookie Keon Coleman.

However, it’s difficult to take this result completely seriously because the Cardinals don’t have a functional secondary. They have one of the worst defensive backfields in the NFL, so Allen’s positive performance was expected. Things will be much tougher against Jalen Ramsey and the Dolphins, who bring much more of a pass rush than Arizona does. Also, Allen injured his non-throwing wrist toward the end of that game, so we don’t know how much that will impact him.

If Allen is hindered at all by the injury, he’ll wish he had a strong rushing attack he could utilize besides what he provides. The Bills are lacking in this department, and it’s not like they have a positive matchup in this regard. The Dolphins clamped down on Travis Etienne rather well last week, so they should be able to handle James Cook.

MIAMI OFFENSE: I expressed concern with the Bills on this side of the ball as well. While Allen’s chemistry with the receivers is something that could be resolved in the coming weeks, the team’s inability to defend the middle of the field will linger all season because Matt Milano is out until at least December. The safety play is also not very ideal, as Damar Hamlin is seeing far too many snaps.

Mike McDaniel is an offensive mastermind, so he’ll be able to scheme his players open against the holes in Buffalo’s defense. The Bills have talented cornerbacks, but Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford won’t be able to save the Bills from being exploited in their weak areas. Plus, it’s not like any corner can be counted on to stopping Tyreek Hill, assuming there’s no assistance from traffic cops.

The Bills at least won’t have to worry about Miami’s rushing attack like it needed to a year ago. This is an area in which the Dolphins have gotten worse. They lost their two best run-blocking linemen, Connor Williams and Robert Hunt, to the Seahawks and Panthers, respectively, so it wasn’t a surprise that they couldn’t get much going on the ground with De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert versus the Jaguars.

RECAP: There are a couple of reasons I’m going to back the Dolphins in this game. The first is that the Bills are a team in flux at the moment. Allen still needs to gel with his new receiving corps, and I’m not convinced that one game against a horrendous Arizona secondary did the trick. There’s also the problem with the middle of the defense. Milano’s absence will continue to be huge, while the safety play is going to be lackluster.

The second reason is that Allen may not be 100 percent. As mentioned earlier, he injured his non-throwing wrist late in the Arizona game. Maybe it won’t bother him at all, but it’s possible that this issue could affect Allen in some way.

Regardless, this is not a game I envision myself betting highly, but I will wager on it, as the prospect of fading a public dog like Buffalo is very appealing. I’ll be on the Dolphins for a couple of units at the very most.

Our Week 2 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bills are missing two key players. Matt Milano, of course, is on injured reserve, but Taron Johnson is a new addition to the injury report. Johnson’s absence will really hurt against Miami’s all-star receiving corps. There’s some concern with De’Von Achane sidelined, but running backs are overrated, so his absence wouldn’t move the needle for me. I still plan on betting two units on the Dolphins.

PLAYER PROP BET: I like James Cook’s over receiving yards. Cook has gone over the posted total (17.5) in six of his 10 games since Joe Brady took over for Ken Dorsey. Nine of those games occurred with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis on the field, so Josh Allen will rely on Cook more as a pass-catcher. He had 33 receiving yards in the opener, so he should be able to clear 17.5 easily. The best number is over 17.5 -110 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going to throw Cook over receiving yards into a parlay comprised of the following three legs: Tyreek Hill over 96.5 receiving yards, Tua Tagovailoa over 267.5 passing yards, and Dalton Kincaid over 4.5 receptions. Tagovailoa and Hill project well against a Buffalo defense missing lots of personnel. Kincaid did nothing last week, but this should be a get-right game for him. He played 90 percent of the snaps, so his production should go back to normal. This $25 parlay pays $212.50 at Caesars.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The only injury we were waiting on was De’Von Achane. He’ll play, so the Dolphins look good. Everything I’ve heard today is how great the Bills have been against Miami recently, but that was a Buffalo team with Stefon Diggs, Matt Milano, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Gabe Davis, and Taron Johnson. All of those guys are gone or injured. Josh Allen may also be affected by his wrist. The sharps have a slight lean on the Dolphins, but nothing major. The best line is -2.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -1.

Computer Model: Bills -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 55% (402,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Bills have won 17 of the last 22 meetings.

Bills are 30-44 ATS in their last 74 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Dolphins -1.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Possible showers, 83 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The NBC broadcast for the Chiefs-Ravens opener repeatedly discussed the depth-of-target figure for Lamar Jackson. The Baltimore quarterback struggled mightily in that regard versus the Chiefs, which wasn’t a surprise at all. I spent lots of time this offseason talking about how the Ravens’ offensive line regressed as a result of three blockers leaving free agency. I thought there was a chance that the front office would be able to obtain adequate replacements, but this was not the case.

If Jackson thought that he was hounded often in the opener, he hasn’t seen anything yet. The Raiders have one of the top pass rushes in the NFL. They didn’t have the best matchup last week against the Chargers’ improved offensive line, and yet they limited the opposing output rather well until a late touchdown when the team had surrendered all hope. They’ll have a much better pass-rush rate versus Baltimore.

The Ravens will want to establish Derrick Henry to ease some of the pressure off Jackson, but they couldn’t even run on a weak Kansas City ground defense. Henry is washed up and doesn’t have the great blocking he once possessed in Tennessee. Plus, the Raiders were No. 2 versus the run last year.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: As mentioned in the opener, Gardner Minshew sabotaged a potential Raiders victory last week with some bad decision-making. Zamir White did as well with his lost fumble. The Raiders led for most of the afternoon, but ended up losing because of sloppy ball security.

The Raiders may not project well in most models in this game, but there is an avenue for offensive success in this game, and that would be with the talented receivers going against Baltimore’s secondary. This is another area in which the Ravens have regressed. They used to maintain one of the NFL’s best secondaries, but their cornerback play is mostly lackluster now. Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers figure to thrive in Baltimore.

Conversely, the Raiders won’t run nearly as well. It would help if they still had Josh Jacobs, but the Ravens are much better against ground attacks, so White will struggle once again.

RECAP: One of the reasons I bet the Chiefs in Week 1 is because I wanted to fade the Ravens. Baltimore was the No. 1 seed last year, but the team won’t be nearly as good this year. The offensive line sucks outside of two spots, while the defense isn’t as good as it used to be.

The Raiders have a great edge in the trenches. They have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, so they’ll be able to swarm Jackson and keep his depth-of-target figure low. Meanwhile, their receivers will have an easy time with Baltimore’s cornerbacks.

Despite the Ravens regressing and being overrated, this spread is inflated. A line of -9.5 is way too high for the Ravens against a competent opponent. I know the Raiders let us down in Week 1, but that game was a couple of plays away from swinging the other way, so I like the value we’re getting with the underdog. This is a big play for me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There was a +10 line for a minute this week, but the sharps jumped on that rather quickly. Unfortunately, I wasn’t quick enough to bet it. I’m still perfectly fine with the Raiders at anything above +7.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps keep betting the Raiders, which isn’t much of a surprise considering how overrated Baltimore is. The Ravens will be missing Nate Wiggins and probably Kyle Van Noy, so they’re going to be even worse than they looked in Week 1.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m going under on Derrick Henry’s rushing yards. This can’t be a surprise. Henry is washed up, while his offensive line lost three starters in the offseason. The Raiders were No. 2 in rush defense last year. The best number is under 74.5 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Raiders earlier in the week at +10 to +9. I wish we got +10, but that was available for mere minutes. Getting +8.5 is still fine though. The best line is +8.5 -105 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Ravens have the Cowboys next week, though they’re coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -7.5.

Computer Model: Raiders -11.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Why would the public not slam the Ravens?

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 76% (113,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Lamar Jackson is 11-20 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.

Opening Line: Ravens -8.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 80 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 1-2 ATS in Week 1.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Steelers +3

Packers +2.5

Ravens +3

All underdogs!? What’s happening here?

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Ravens -9.5

Texans -6.5

Chargers -6.5

Cowboys -6.5

Eagles -6.5

Ah, we’re back to normal. The public loves big favorites again, and all is right with the world.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Of all the results last week, the 47-10 Panthers loss to the Saints was the most surprising to me. That may sound strange if you’re reading this site for the first time, but I’ve been pounding the Carolina drum all offseason. The Panthers did a great job of finding offensive line upgrades, acquiring better receivers, and giving Bryce Young better coaching. And yet, none of it mattered.

I was most interested in digging into the Panthers’ breakdown to see if Young’s new supporting cast failed him, but that wasn’t the case. The offensive line largely played well. Diontae Johnson got open. Young just sucked. He really, really, really sucked.

Dave Canales is the ultimate quarterback whisperer, so perhaps he’ll be able to fix some things now that he has a game under his belt. At the very least, the Panthers offense can help negate the strength of the Chargers, which is the pass rush, so Young will have some time in the pocket versus a secondary that has some liabilities. There should also be an opportunity to Chuba Hubbard to be established against a defense that projects to be soft up the middle.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: While the Panthers supposedly improved the offensive side of the ball, they sacrificed a big part of their defense. That would be Brian Burns, who was shipped off to the Giants. As a result, the pass rush was horrendous against the Saints. Carolina had just three pressures all game, and that was with Derrick Brown, who will now be sidelined.

The Chargers have an improved offensive line, so they’ll be able to keep Justin Herbert clean. This doesn’t mean that Herbert will have a great game, however. Herbert is not healthy because of his plantar fascia, while his receiving corps is rather lackluster.

Herbert will at least be able to lean on J.K. Dobbins. Despite coming off a torn Achilles, Dobbins looked like his former, explosive self in the opener. The Panthers had issues stopping Alvin Kamara, so Dobbins figures to have a big game.

RECAP: I can’t believe how bad the Panthers were. Despite all the upgrades they made, which I detailed earlier in this pick capsule, they were completely embarrassed in New Orleans. That 47-10 result was absolutely shocking. Maybe Young simply cannot be salvaged.

Maybe I’m a glutton for punishment, but I’m going back to the Panthers. I refuse to believe that all of these upgrades mean nothing. And as bad as the Panthers were last year, they still had some solid performances, particularly at home. They lost by three to the Saints and Packers, they beat the Falcons, and they were two nullified touchdowns away from beating the Buccaneers by five. They were blown out by some of the better teams, but I don’t consider the Chargers to be one of the better teams. Herbert is not 100 percent, and the play-makers around him are lackluster at best.

I love fading overreactions in Week 2, and this has to be one of them. The Panthers were +3.5 on the look ahead, and now they’re +6.5. The spread moving three points through a key number is an absurd overreaction. It’d be one thing if the Chargers were a good team with a healthy quarterback, but they’re not. I like Carolina quite a bit here, though I’m prepared to once again look foolish for betting on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Panthers at +6.5. I was hoping we’d see a +7, but that wasn’t meant to be. I considered moving this down to two units, but I’m going to remain stubborn and keep my three-unit wager on Carolina. It felt like I was on an island on our picks video, so I’m glad to see that the sharps agree with me, at least at +6.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: I considered dropping my unit count to two because the sharps took this line off +6.5 and +6 down to +5. However, I’m keeping this at three units because the Chargers have so many injuries. Joey Bosa doesn’t look like he’ll go, and neither does Joshua Palmer. Alohi Gilman and Ja’Sir Taylor, two key members of the secondary, figure to be sidelined as well. The Panthers have some questions with a couple of offensive linemen – Taylor Moton, Damien Lewis – but they both practiced Friday.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Joey Bosa is active, which is a bummer. I’m going to decrease the unit count to two as a result, though the sharps are still on Carolina, at least at +6. The best +6 line is +6 -122 at Bookmaker. Given how important six is, I’m going to pay up for that number. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

No surprise where the money is going.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 77% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Justin Herbert is 12-17 ATS as a favorite of -3 or more.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 75 degrees. Mild/heavy wind, 15 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

This is from our old friend Nephtali Diaz. Obviously, I was being sarcastic about the Saints-Panthers game being up in the air. I probably should have guessed that Nephtali wouldn’t understand sarcasm.

There’s no way Nephtali would have gotten the last line either. I don’t know why I even try with this guy. I’d just be better off posting irrelevant gifs because that’s all this guy seems to understand.

I’m shocked he didn’t say anything in response to this. Hopefully we’ll hear more from Nephtali next week!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Cowboys were able to dominate the Browns defensively because of what transpired prior to the game. Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin were both ruled out, so the Browns didn’t have either starting tackle against Dallas’ dynamic edge rush. Micah Parsons had a field day against Deshaun Watson as a result.

Parsons and company will treat Derek Carr similarly. The Saints have the worst offensive line in the NFC, but the Panthers weren’t able to take advantage of that because of Brian Burns’ departure. Parsons and the rest of the Dallas edge rushers will be able to do so.

If the Saints had a better offensive line, I’d have faith that they could establish Alvin Kamara to help keep Carr clean. I just don’t see that happening, even against a pedestrian Dallas ground defense, given the blocking woes.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Saints aren’t the only team with offensive line issues in this game. The Cowboys have concerns in that department as well. Rookie tackle Tyler Guyton was a disaster in his debut, though understandably so against Myles Garrett. Zack Martin continued to look old. Rookie center Cooper Beebe at least performed on a high level, so there’s some hope.

The Saints, however, are not a team that can take advantage of offensive line liabilities. Cameron Jordan is decrepit at this stage of his career, while Bryan Breese has been a big disappointment. Dak Prescott figures to have a clean pocket for most of the game, so he’ll have a much easier time connecting with CeeDee Lamb.

The running game won’t produce much, however, so the Saints may have a chance at a back-door cover if the Cowboys jump out to a big lead. New Orleans is stronger versus the run than the pass, and neither Ezekiel Elliott nor Rico Dowdle pose much of a threat anyway. It’s mystifying as to why the Cowboys haven’t traded for a running back like Khalil Herbert.

RECAP: These are two teams I wanted to fade this year. As it so happens, both won in Week 1 in blowout fashion. In an idea world, this would have happened to only one of these teams, giving us a great betting opportunity with the other team.

I’m going to side with the Cowboys because I love the edge they have in the trenches. I’m not convinced that the Saints can block at all despite what occurred last week versus the Panthers. If I’m right, they’re going to have a major problems keeping Parsons and company out of the backfield.

Having said that, I don’t like Dallas very much, and this spread seems to be a bit inflated. Plus, Dallas could be looking ahead to Baltimore next week.

One other thing I’d like to note is that the Francine storm may impact this game. Saints players may be distracted with Francine set to crash right into Louisiana. Depending on how strong it is, the Cowboys may be worth a wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps took another +6.5 here, grabbing the Saints. Despite this, many New Orleans players missed Wednesday’s practice, but it’s still early in the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Marshon Lattimore missed practice all week. Taliese Fuaga missed practice Thursday and Friday. This is obviously horrible news for the Saints. If Fuaga is sidelined, that means Micah Parsons and company will be up against a team missing both tackles for the second week in a row. I’m going to put two units on Dallas.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Rashid Shaheed under 39.5 receiving yards. Shaheed is a deep threat. This means Derek Carr will need time to locate him downfield. Carr had that time against the Panthers’ Brian Burns-less pass rush, but it’ll be a different story against Micah Parsons, especially if Tallies Fuaga is sidelined. The best number is under 39.5 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Marshon Lattimore is out, but Tallies Fuaga will play, so New Orleans’ offensive line at least has some hope to block Dallas a little bit. I projected two units on the Cowboys with the thought that Fuaga would be out, so I’m not going to place a bet on this game. The sharps haven’t touched this one either. The best line is -6 -115 at Bet365. You can Bet $5 And Get $150 Or Get A First Bet Safety Net Up To $1,000 from Bet365 by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

The Cowboys may look ahead to the Ravens, but the Saints could be distracted by the hurricane.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -6.

Computer Model: Cowboys -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Slight lean on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 64% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Dak Prescott is 38-29 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Cowboys -6.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions were an easy play in the NFC divisional round battle against the Buccaneers because of Tampa Bay’s horrid pass defense. The secondary was woeful all year and was projected to struggle against Detroit’s passing attack. This turned out to be the case, as the Lions scored early and often en route to a win and cover.

The Buccaneers project to be even worse against the pass in this game because Antoine Winfield will be sidelined. Tampa Bay’s top defensive back will sorely be missed against a Detroit receiving corps that just saw Jameson Williams finally emerge as a potent threat.

Tampa Bay can at least generally play the run well, though that didn’t matter in the aforementioned playoff game. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 107 rushing yards, thanks to Detroit’s prolific offensive line. It’s so incredibly difficult to stop the Lions’ ground attack because of how tremendous their front is, and I don’t see the Buccaneers doing much better this time.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Lions aren’t the only team with a great matchup edge in this game. The Buccaneers possess one as well with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Detroit improved its secondary this offseason, but that wasn’t apparent against the Puka Nacua-less Rams last week. Evans, despite being 31, is still a dynamic threat, and he’s expected to enjoy a great performance once again versus Detroit.

The Lions will have to counter this with their pass rush. They can get great pressure on the edge with Aidan Hutchinson, but Baker Mayfield is well protected in that area. The interior blocking isn’t as strong, so it’ll be imperative for D.J. Reader to play after missing last week’s game.

Speaking of Reader, he’ll be a huge help in the Lions’ efforts against Rachaad White and Bucky Irving. The latter was the better runner last week, so perhaps Tampa Bay will feed him the ball more often. However, nothing will work on the ground this Sunday, as Detroit has one of the top run defenses in the NFL.

RECAP: No one in recent years has been higher on the Lions than me, and no one was lower on the Buccaneers than me last year. If you think this means that I’ll be picking the Lions then, well, you’re right.

Betting and picking are different things, however. I won’t be betting the Lions because the Buccaneers seem to have the motivational edge. The Buccaneers will be seeking revenge from the playoff loss, while Detroit is coming off an exhausting overtime battle versus its former quarterback. I would even consider siding with the Buccaneers, but they have so many defensive back injuries. Winfield’s absence is going to make it very difficult for Tampa Bay to stop Detroit’s aerial assault.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Penei Sewell missed Wednesday’s practice, which is a slight worry. The Buccaneers have greater problems in the secondary, however. The sharps have taken Detroit at -7 to push the line to -7.5, while the public is betting the Buccaneers.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m switching my pick to the Buccaneers. I don’t think the Lions will be fully focused because they’re coming off a tough overtime game. In addition to that, I worry about the team’s health. Ifeatu Melifonwu is out again, which was a huge deal last week. Kerby Joseph is dealing with a hamstring, so there’s a chance the Lions could be missing both of their safeties versus Tampa’s receivers. Meanwhile, Penei Sewell barely practiced, while Marcus Davenport has been ruled out. There are a ton of injuries for a team that certainly doesn’t have the motivational edge. Not only am I switching my pick to Tampa, I’m also going to bet them for two units on this inflated number.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Rachaad White under 45.5 rushing yards. White had 31 yards on 15 carries last year, and he once again projects poorly against Detroit’s dominant run defense. Bucky Irving may take some work away from White as well. The best number is under 45.5 -114 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sigh. Every single Lions player who looked iffy for this game will play. Penei Sewell, Jameson Williams and Kerby Joseph are all in, as is D.J. Reader. This injury situation is not nearly as lopsided as I thought, so I will not be betting the Buccaneers. The sharps are all over the Lions. If you still like Tampa, the best line is +7.5 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Lions are coming off an overtime win, while the Buccaneers are seeking revenge.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -6.5.

Computer Model: Lions -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

The Buccaneers are a slight public dog.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 63% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 133-93 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Lions -6.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The NFL’s idiotic decision to play a game in Brazil hurt the Packers, as “No Cookie” Jordan Love suffered an injury on the antepenultimate play of the game, thanks to third-world turf. Though the Packers dodged a bullet with Love not needing to be placed on injured reserve, he’ll still miss this game.

Malik Willis will start, which is far from ideal. However, Willis will be coached at a much higher level in Green Bay than he was in Tennessee, and he’ll also have a much better receiving corps. Green Bay’s young receivers all appear to have developed, so they’ll be able to get open against an Indianapolis secondary that isn’t very good.

Josh Jacobs, conversely, may not have as much success. Joe Mixon just had a huge performance versus the Colts, but Indianapolis has quality personnel to contain the rush. The Colts had to give C.J. Stroud and all of his talented receivers far too much respect, which they obviously won’t need to do against Willis.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts produced 27 points against the Texans last week, but the output could have been so much greater. Anthony Richardson missed several downfield throws, including two potential touchdowns to Adonai Mitchell. Had he connected on them, it’s likely that Indianapolis would have prevailed.

Then again, it’s not like we can count on Richardson to rectify these errors. He’s a raw passer, after all. He’ll at least have an opportunity to shred Green Bay’s secondary, which is far less potent now that Jaire Alexander is washed up. Alexander was horrible against the Eagles. Granted, he had a very difficult matchup, but he’s been in a downward trend for some time.

The Colts can at least make up for it by establishing Jonathan Taylor. While Taylor didn’t perform well last week, he’s set to rebound against the Packers, who have struggled against the run for quite some time.

RECAP: One of my favorite angles in NFL handicapping is to wager on backup quarterbacks playing for good teams unless they’re battling a top-12 defense. We have that situation here, as Willis is set to square off against Indianapolis. The Colts have a decent defense, but their shaky cornerback play will keep them out of the top third of the league.

I know it’s difficult to stomach the prospect of betting Willis, but there’s usually great value with these backup quarterbacks. This line moved from Green Bay -4.5 to +3.5 (currently -119 at Bookmaker), which is absurd. No player is worth eight points on his own, especially on a good team. Backup quarterbacks versus non-top 12 teams are 28-17 against the spread in the past several seasons. Willis will be coached up by Matt LaFleur, so I have confidence that he’ll be somewhat competent.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I understand the concern with betting on Malik Willis. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in the NFL yet. However, he’ll be coached up by Matt LaFleur, and regardless, Willis is 2-1 against the spread in his three starts! He almost beat the Chiefs as a double-digit underdog on national TV. The Packers will be fine in this game.

LOCKED IN: The sharps have pounded the Packers down to +2.5 in most books. This might be because of DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye missing practice all week. You can still get +3 for -115 at DraftKings, -119 at Bookmaker, and -120 at FanDuel. I’m going to lock in the +3 -115 before all the +3s disappear. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: I can see why the sharps pounded the Packers down to +2.5. DeForest Buckner didn’t log a single practice all week. Kwity Paye barely practiced. JuJu Brents, the team’s top cornerback, landed on injured reserve. Julian Blackmon is out. The Colts are way too injured to be favored on the road against a decent opponent.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Josh Jacobs over 62.5 rushing yards. Jacobs had 84 rushing yards in a very difficult matchup last week, so he can certainly exceed that figure versus the Colts, who were just gashed by Joe Mixon. Indianapolis has some injured personnel on the defensive line, and I expect Green Bay to perform at a very high level to rally around Malik Willis. The best number is over 62.5 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Another injury bummer, as both DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye will play, though they may not be 100 percent. The Colts are still without some key members of their secondary as well. The sharps pounded the Packers at +3. There is still one viable +3 out there for -118 vig at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Packers.

The Packers will be playing at a high level for their backup quarterback.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -4.5.

Computer Model: Colts -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 61% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 49-35 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Colts -3.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Cloudy, 81 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

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CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns had a completely dysfunctional offense to open the season. This was predictable right before kickoff when Jack Conklin was ruled out. Jedrick Wills was already set to miss the game, so Cleveland simply couldn’t pass protect against Micah Parsons and company without its starting tackles.

One of Wills or Conklin will be needed for this game because Jacksonville can bring tons of pressure with Josh Allen and Trevon Walker. If Deshaun Watson has superior protection this week, he’ll certainly be able to rebound, despite David Njoku’s projected absence. This is because the Jacksonville secondary, which was already a disaster, will be missing top cornerback Tyson Campbell.

The Jaguars can at least handle the run well. They limited De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert on the ground last week, so they’ll be able to restrict Jerome Ford from doing much.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: While the Browns can hope that their pass protection improves with players returning to action, the Jaguars don’t have the same luxury. They have some talented blockers up front, but they also have some major liabilities, notably with Anton Harrison, who was dreadful in the opener.

I don’t need to tell you that poor blocking can be crushing against a defensive front spearheaded by Myles Garrett. Trevor Lawrence will certainly face ample pressure in this game, so the Jaguars won’t have a consistent offensive attack.

It won’t help Lawrence’s cause that he won’t be able to lean on the run. The Browns had the No. 1 ground defense in the NFL last year, so they’ll be able to limit Travis Etienne, who will need to avoid another crushing fumble this week.

RECAP: I think I will be betting the Browns. As I’ve stated earlier, I love fading Week 1 overreactions. Cleveland was blown out by the Cowboys at home, so it has gotten so much negativity from everyone over the past 48 hours. Cleveland was +2 on the advance line, and now it’s up to +3.

The thing is, the blowout was predictable when factoring in the offensive line injuries. When Conklin was ruled out prior to kickoff, I immediately backed out of my projected three-unit bet because Wills was also sidelined. The Browns didn’t stand a chance against Dallas’ edge rush without their two starting tackles. If only one of them returns, you have to like the Browns a lot more in this game. Watson will have much more time in the pocket in this game, so he’ll be able to locate his receivers against an already-poor secondary missing its top cornerback.

Conversely, if both Wills and Conklin are out again, I’ll side with the Jaguars and potentially bet them. I’ll be monitoring the injury report carefully, so check back later for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jedrick Willis was DNP on Wednesday. Jack Conklin was limited, but he was limited last week as well. I’m looking forward to the final injury report to see if the Cleveland tackles will be available.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping the Browns would have one of their tackles back against Josh Allen and Travon Walker. That may not happen. Jedrick Wills was ruled out again, while Jack Conklin was limited all week, just like he was ahead of Week 1. Also, Juan Thornhill landed on injured reserve. If Conklin is ruled out on Sunday, I may bet on the Jaguars.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I said I would bet the Jaguars if both Cleveland tackles were out, and that’s exactly the case. Jack Conklin is inactive once again, so I’m switching and betting Jacksonville. The best line is -3 -113 at BetRivers. There’s no sharp money to speak of here. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

ONE MORE THING: Evan Engram is a late scratch. This doesn’t move the needle for me because Trevor Lawrence has so many weapons.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -2.

Computer Model: Jaguars -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

A decent lean on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 71% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Jaguars are 61-106 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 15-29 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -3.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Likely rain, 83 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: We perhaps saw evidence Monday night that running back is the most overrated position in football. Despite how brilliant Christian McCaffrey is, the 49ers didn’t skip a beat offensively with Jordan Mason in the backfield. Mason was excellent, allowing the 49ers to control the ball for 25 of the first 37 minutes of the game.

It’s unclear if McCaffrey will return for this game. Whomever the 49ers deploy at running back will have a tougher time against a Minnesota defense that made several upgrades this offseason. Granted, stopping the 49ers’ ground attack is no easy feat, but the Vikings will do better against it than the Jets did.

What I worry more about the Vikings is their ability to defend the pass. Their secondary has some holes that can be exploited. Brandon Aiyuk wasn’t even at full strength in the opener, so he’ll be more of a factor in his second game.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Though the Jets were blown out, Aaron Rodgers had success moving the chains on numerous occasions. The Jets sabotaged themselves with some turnovers, but they at least showed that there are some areas in which San Francisco can be beaten.

Breece Hall was able to exploit the middle of the defense, which was missing Arik Armstead, Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga from a year ago. Perhaps the latter will return from injury this week, but Aaron Jones at least projects well in this game. Justin Jefferson will also thrive because of his raw talent.

Sam Darnold will have an opportunity to connect with Jefferson and his other receivers because of his strong pass protection. The Vikings block extremely well, so Darnold won’t be under siege very often despite the 49ers possessing great pass-rushing talent in their front seven.

RECAP: I’d like to fade an overreaction in this game, but both teams are coming off blowout wins. Of course, all blowout wins aren’t created equally. I don’t think people are rushing to vault the Vikings up their power rankings because they beat the Giants. Defeating a team quarterbacked by Daniel Jones is no impressive feat, no matter the score.

The 49ers, on the other hand, looked great in their Monday night victory over the Jets. This has caused the spread to move from -5.5 to -6. I don’t think this is warranted, especially off a short week in which the 49ers have to travel halfway across the country. And though I belittled the Vikings’ blowout win over the Giants, they can be considered an underrated team. They have a quality offensive line, great offensive play-makers, and underrated defenders. Plus, they’re coached well. They can pull the upset here if the 49ers are the least bit distracted in the wake of their dominant performance against the Jets.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have gotten on the Vikings and dropped the line to +5.5 at many locations. I thought about locking in +6, but I don’t like seeing Andrew Van Ginkel DNP in Wednesday’s practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: Christian McCaffrey is out, which almost seems irrelevant. The Vikings have some banged-up players as well. Jordan Addison is out, while Harrison Smith, Brian O’Neill and Ed Ingram are all questionable. The Vikings still look somewhat appealing unless two or more of those players are ruled out Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The questionable Vikings will play, so the only injury for Minnesota is Jordan Addison. I still like the Vikings a bit, wnd the sharps are on that side as well. The pros are betting Minnesota aggressively. The best line is +4.5 -105 at Caesars.

The Motivation. Edge: Vikings.

The 49ers are coming off a blowout victory on national TV and are traveling far on a short week.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -9.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Decent lean on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 65% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Brock Purdy is 21-4 SU, 15-10 ATS.

Vikings are 43-36 ATS at home since 2014 (12-21 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: 49ers -5.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

Video of the Week: I’ve posted many Pitch Meeting videos in the past, including the Game of Thrones Season 8 debacle. Well, the guy who made it revisited it:

I really hope they redo Seasons 7 and 8 somehow, even if it’s with CGI. It was such a failure.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: When the Patriots’ offensive line committed eight penalties in the final preseason game against Washington’s backups, I never would have imagined that New England would be celebrating a Week 1 victory versus the Bengals. Yet, that’s exactly what transpired, as the Patriots blasted open huge running lanes for Rhamondre Stevenson and kept Joe Burrow off the field.

It’s possible that this was a fluke. The Bengals were not focused at all. However, the Seahawks don’t project to have a great ground defense with Uchenna Nwosu sidelined. There might be an opportunity for Stevenson to thrive again.

Then again, the Seahawks will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage like they did versus the Broncos because they won’t need to respect Jacoby Brissett and his awful receivers. Seattle has the personnel to generate pressure, so Brissett will be hurried often behind his anemic front.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Speaking of pressure, it was a foregone conclusion that the Patriots’ pass rush would be diminished in the wake of the Matthew Judon trade. This turned out to be incorrect, as 2023 second-round pick Keion White stepped up and logged three sacks against Joe Burrow.

Granted, Burrow isn’t protected well, so it remains to be seen if White can continue this level of production. Geno Smith has adequate blocking, and New England will also have to worry about multiple talented receivers instead of just one like the Bengals possessed with Ja’Marr Chase in the wake of Tee Higgins’ absence.

The superior blocking will also open up some big running lanes for Kenneth Walker. Again, this is something that the Patriots didn’t have to concern themselves with last week because the Bengals run block so poorly. The Seahawks are much better in this regard with Connor Williams on the roster. Kenneth Walker will have some nice gains once again, making life much easier for Smith.

RECAP: If the Patriots hadn’t beaten the Bengals, there’s no way they’d be just +3 against the Seahawks. This line would be +4 at the very least. They were +3.5 on the look-ahead spread, so that didn’t factor in Seattle’s impressive showing versus Denver.

You might be wondering why I have that qualifier. The Patriots did beat the Bengals, after all. It’s because that victory was clearly a fluke. The Bengals were looking ahead to the Chiefs and didn’t put forth any effort in that contest. Had they been fully focused, they would have won, likely by double digits. If they had done that, we’d be looking at this game very differently.

I like the Seahawks, but I don’t know how bullish we should be about them either. They have a new head coach, so they’re difficult to evaluate at the moment. I know they won convincingly, but I considered the Broncos to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, so I didn’t put much stock into that game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Any consideration of betting the Seahawks is gone now that this line moved to -3.5. That’s the worst line in football because so many games are decided by three. Also, Kenneth Walker missed Wednesday’s practice, which is not ideal (though it’s not a deal-breaker either.)

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread keeps ping ponging between +3 and +3.5. Kenneth Walker has been ruled out, but that’s not a huge deal. I’m more concerned with Uchenna Nwosu, George Fant and potentially Jerome Baker missing this game. The injuries point toward the Patriots, but I’m not going to bet on them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The questionable Seattle linebackers will play, so you can bet the Seahawks if you want. I’m going to stay away. There’s been pro money on both Seahawks -3 and Patriots +3.5, so the sharps can’t make up their minds. The best lines are -3 -110 at Bookmaker and +3.5 -118 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -3.

Computer Model: Seahawks -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 54% (113,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Geno Smith is 3-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+. ???

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Sunny, 76 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers’ return was supposed to be a panacea for the Jets, but the defense forgot to show up on Monday night. The stop unit was downright dreadful, as tackling Jordan Mason seemed like an impossible task for New York. The Jets couldn’t get a backfield comprised of Mason and Brock Purdy off the field, as the 49ers held the ball for 25 of the first 37 minutes.

Going against the Titans will be an easier task, but it won’t be a simple one. The Titans have some great talent on this side of the ball. Tony Pollard appears to be his former, explosive self, and he has some great blocking in front of him, as rookie J.C. Latham was able to blast open some huge running lanes versus Chicago. The Jets are even worse to the run than the Bears are, so Pollard should have a huge game. There’s also the receivers, as Calvin Ridley adds an element Tennessee didn’t have last year. With Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter II banged up, Ridley, Tyler Boyd and DeAndre Hopkins should be able to get open.

The one problem here is Will Levis, who absolutely self destructed in the fourth quarter last week. All Levis needed to do was hand the ball off to Pollard, and Tennessee would have prevailed. Levis could certainly continue to sabotage the Titans, but I have to imagine he’ll take a much safer approach this week to preserve his job.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Though the Jets lost Monday night, Rodgers was not a disappointment. Outside of one ball he forced that was deflected and picked, he performed well. He even revitalized Allen Lazard’s career, which only Rodgers is capable of doing.

Rodgers has a tall task ahead of him in this game, however. The Titans have assembled some tremendous personnel on this side of the ball and now have the potential of being a top-five defense this year. They completely embarrassed Caleb Williams last week, and they’ll continue to thrive versus the Jets. Their two No. 1 cornerbacks will be able to restrict Garrett Wilson and Lazard, while Rodgers will see some pressure.

The Titans also project to be stellar versus the run. Second-round nose tackle T’Vondre Sweat had a great debut last week, and he’ll help stuff Breece Hall. Then again, Hall is capable of going the distance on any play, so all it takes is one play for Hall to break past everyone.

RECAP: The Jets have a brutal schedule to begin the year. Not necessarily as far as the opposition is concerned, but rather when it comes to travel. Following a battle versus the 49ers, the Jets had to fly home across the country and then go to Tennessee. After that game, they have just three days of rest before playing on Thursday night. I’d say that I don’t know what the NFL is thinking when designing a schedule like this, but the truth of the matter is that they aren’t thinking. They just don’t care.

Given that the Jets could be both exhausted and distracted by an impending divisional game in four days, I’m not sure if we’ll get their best against the Titans. This is problematic because the defense doesn’t match up well against the Titans, who will want to run as much as possible after the Levis debacle. The Jets are weak to the run, so Tennessee should be able to remain on the field and suck up the time of possession, much like San Francisco did on Monday night.

Tennessee’s defense, meanwhile, will be able to get the Jets off the field. The Titans may have one of the best stop units in the NFL, yet most people still don’t know that. I think if you were to ask the common fan which team had the better defense in this matchup, most would say the Jets. I don’t believe this to be the case – especially with the Jets’ defensive backs banged up – so I believe the Titans should be favored.I love that we’re able to get good line value based on misinformation.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Titans at +4 to bring the line down to +3.5. All looks good on the injury report for a big play.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jets have some serious concerns in their secondary. D.J. Reed was a mid-week downgrade and missed practice on Friday, which is a huge problem because Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter II got banged up last week and will have less rest than usual ahead of this game. An injured team with a divisional game on the horizon likely won’t be focused for this non-divisional contest.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Tony Pollard over 48.5 rushing yards. Pollard is getting the bulk of the carries, and the Jets are awful against the run. I’m also going to bet Pollard at 100+ rushing yards at +625. The best number is over 48.5 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, which is a surprise. I still love the Titans. The best line is +4 -110, which is available at several sportsbooks, including BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Jets have a divisional game in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -4.

Computer Model: Jets -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

The public still likes the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 60% (103,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Aaron Rodgers is 128-89 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 39-20 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Jets -4.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 80 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

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MalloryGlickman33 NFL Mock Draft

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I certainly wasn’t bullish on Jayden Daniels’ chances last week. Daniels had a great matchup by just the numbers because Tampa Bay struggled against the pass in 2023. However, the Buccaneers have been stellar versus mobile quarterbacks over the years, so Daniels was predictably contained fairly well until garbage time.

Daniels will be much better this week. The Giants have some major liabilities in their defense, particularly their secondary. While the Buccaneers have some talents in their defensive backfield – namely Antoine Winfield Jr. – New York has absolutely nothing. Quite literally nothing. The Giants’ best cornerback is Adoree Jackson, and he’s a decrepit player at this stage of his career. Terry McLaurin, who was limited very well in the opener, will have a much easier time getting open in Week 2.

The Giants aren’t very good against the run either. They’re better at stopping the rush by default, but they can certainly be beaten on the ground. Brian Robinson had a tough time finding running room against Tampa Bay’s perennially great ground defense, but he’ll have far more success against the Giants.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s hard to say if the Giants’ offense or defense was worse in the opener. While New York couldn’t stop an offense led by Sam Darnold, the Giants couldn’t produce any points either. The issues with the offensive line persisted, as Andrew Thomas and Jermaine Eluemunor were the only players who were capable of blocking. Daniel Jones, as a result, continued to be a complete disaster.

This looks like a great matchup for Jones on paper. Like the Giants, the Redskins can’t cover anyone, while their pass rush is rather lackluster. One thing to note is that while the Redskins don’t have anything as far as edge-rushing talent is concerned, they at least have Da’Ron Payne and Jonathan Allen in the interior. Those two defensive tackles have a huge mismatch in their favor versus New York’s anemic interior offensive linemen.

Speaking of the Giants’ interior blockers, there won’t be any running game to speak of for New York. The Redskins are much better versus the run than the pass, so they shouldn’t have any sort of issue containing Devin Singletary.

RECAP: Both the Giants and Redskins were blown out in their openers, but there was a stark contrast between the two games. The Giants gave their fans no hope, as Jones continued to play horrendously. The Redskins, conversely, had flashes of brilliance on occasion from Daniels. He made some mistakes, but this was to be expected in a tough matchup.

Daniels has a much easier matchup in this game, so the Redskins appear to be the correct side. However, I’m not going to be running up to the ticket window to bet them as a favorite. There are many superior betting opportunities this week, so I’ll pass on this game from a wagering perspective.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We have a big public-sharp dichotomy here, with the Joes betting the Redskins and the pros on the Giants. I get the argument for the latter, but both sides look unappealing to me.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve been thinking about this a lot, and I’ve talked myself into betting the Giants. This seems like such a trap, with the Redskins “only” being favored by 1.5 points. They’re one of the highest-bet teams of the week, yet the line isn’t moving anywhere. Vegas is begging people to bet the Redskins. And yet, the Giants have owned the Redskins over the years. They crushed them as nine-point dogs last season. Washington’s defense is horrendous and won’t be able to stop anyone, even Daniel Jones. Brian Burns, meanwhile, has a great matchup here after being neutralized by Christian Darrisaw last week.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Terry McLaurin over 48.5 receiving yards. McLaurin did nothing last week, but I like him to bounce back against a Giants secondary that is horrible. I think the Redskins will be behind, so they’ll have to throw more than they’d like. The best number is over 48.5 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

TEASER: Packers +8.5, Giants +7.5 -120 (1 Unit) – DraftKings Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp action to speak of in this game. I still really like the Giants. The best line is +1.5 -105 at Caesars.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -2.5.

Computer Model: Redskins -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Money pouring in on the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Washington: 71% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Giants have won 25 of the last 35 meetings (except the 2022 tie).

Redskins are 11-26 ATS in September home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Redskins -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 80 degrees. Light wind.