NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2024 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
2024 NFL Picks: 12-16 (-$50)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 2 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: If you just had the NBC broadcast on mute and didn’t bother looking at any jersey numbers, you probably wouldn’t have realized that the Rams were dealing with major injury issues. They entered the game without their two starting tackles and eventually lost two more offensive linemen, as well as Puka Nacua. All hope should have been lost, but Matthew Stafford was able to inexplicably overcome these departures and still nearly lead the Rams to victory.

It’s unclear who will play for the Rams among those unavailable Sunday night, save for Nacua, who was placed on injured reserve, and Alaric Jackson, who is suspended for one more game. However, it doesn’t seem like the Rams will need all hands on deck for this matchup because of how anemic Arizona’s defense is. The Cardinals can’t pressure the quarterback at all, while their cornerbacks are among the league’s worst. Stafford won’t have any sort of problem versus Arizona, especially if he gets Rob Havenstein back from injury.

The Cardinals also aren’t very good at defending the run. James Cook ripped off some big runs against Arizona last week, which just shouldn’t happen. Kyren Williams obviously poses a much greater threat out of the backfield than Cook, so the Cardinals will surrender chunks of yardage to him.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals were able to stay competitive with the Bills last week, as Kyler Murray was able to make some timely throws and run for significant yardage. This was a positive matchup for Murray, as he was able to battle a Buffalo defense missing significant talent in the middle of the field.

The Rams have similar issues. They traded Ernest Jones, which has created a massive void in the middle of the field. Christian Rozeboom and Troy Reeder really struggled in the opener, so this is something Murray will be able to exploit via runs or throws to James Conner and Trey McBride.

I’m sure Murray will want to involve Marvin Harrison Jr. much more than he did last week, as Harrison was nearly blanked in the stat box. There should be an opportunity, given that top cornerback Darious Williams is sidelined. Jameson Williams just went off on the Rams, so Harrison could rebound.

RECAP: The NFC West is a funny division. There’s a rock-paper-scissors dynamic between the teams, where Team A always beats Team B, and Team B beats Team C, but Team C always beats Team A. I just described rock, paper, scissors to you, as if you’ve never heard of it.

Sean McVay owns the Cardinals. He’s 14-2 against them, including a sweep last year. Perhaps Aaron Donald was the primary reason for this, but the Rams still can get after the quarterback well and bother Murray. It could also be that their receivers have been too much for Arizona’s perennially poor secondary to handle.

Either way, I expect the Rams to win this game. We’re getting nice value with them, too. The Rams were -2.5 on the advance line, yet they’re now underdogs for some reason. I don’t know what happened to prompt this 3.5-point swing, but I’m not complaining.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Rams lost Joe Noteboom and Steve Avila to IR, but Rob Havenstein was limited in Wednesday’s practice. Getting him back would be important, though it’s worth noting that the Cardinals don’t have any sort of pass rush. Also, Kyler Murray popped onto the injury report with a knee. He practiced fully, but I thought that was interesting.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Rams received some great news, as Rob Havenstein doesn’t have an injury designation. His return will be huge. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray doesn’t have an injury designation either, but it’s still odd that he popped up on the injury report randomly. It reminds me of Joe Burrow popping up on the injury report last week and clearly not being 100 percent. If Murray is banged up, the Cardinals don’t have much of a chance against a team that has dominated them. I’m bumping this to three units.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Kyren Williams over 73.5 rushing yards. Williams rushed for more than 145 yards in both meetings against Arizona last year. The Cardinals are dreadful against the run, and should get gashed once again. The best number is over 73.5 at Caesars.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line is now pick ’em. It wouldn’t surprise me if the sharps jumped on the Rams and made them favorites.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a bit of sharp money on the Rams, who are now favored. The best line is -1 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

ALT. LINE BET: I’m betting the Rams -5.5. They’ve dominated the Cardinals, and their games haven’t been close, so I think they can win by six or more. The best line is -5.5 +186 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -2.5.

Computer Model: Rams -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Slight lean on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 64% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

History: Rams have won 14 of the last 16 meetings.

Cardinals are 47-33 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Rams -2.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It was almost odd to see the Chiefs have some explosive play-making ability in the opener. Rashee Rice was terrific for them last year, but they haven’t had anyone to stretch the field ever since Tyreek Hill departed. That changed with Xavier Worthy. The rookie didn’t touch the ball very much in the opener, but when he did, he made it count. He scored two touchdowns to help the Chiefs defeat the Ravens.

This is not good news for the Bengals. Cam Taylor-Britt and Dax Hill were not tested in the opener against New England’s pathetic receiving corps. They certainly will be in this matchup, and I have my doubts that they’ll be able to contain Kansas City’s enhanced weapons.

Another issue for the Bengals is their run defense, which has severely degraded in the wake of D.J. Reader’s departure. Cincinnati couldn’t get off the field versus the Patriots because they couldn’t contain Rhamondre Stevenson. Isiah Pacheco has much better blocking than Stevenson, though Andy Reid is known to forget the running portion of his playbook at times.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Speaking of forgetting the running portion of the playbook, the Bengals didn’t bother establishing anything on the ground during the opener. Zack Moss and Chase Brown ran a combined 12 times despite the margin never exceeding two touchdowns. It’s unclear why Cincinnati didn’t bother running at all.

Then again, it’s hard to be too excited about a backfield comprised of Moss and Brown. The Chiefs are weaker to the run than the pass, but I don’t think they’ll be threatened by Moss and Brown, especially when considering that Cincinnati’s offensive line continues to disappoint.

The Bengals’ offensive line will be a liability in pass protection. Kansas City brings great pressure from Chris Jones, George Karlaftis and others, so Joe Burrow will constantly be harassed. If this were Burrow in midseason form throwing to a healthy Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, I’d think he could overcome it, but it’s unclear if any of these players in question are 100 percent.

RECAP: I’ve vowed never to bet on Burrow again in Weeks 1-2. I mean it. We’re getting alleged great line value here with the Bengals moving from +3.5 to +6. This means we push with a key number, so Cincinnati looks enticing. But I just can’t pull the trigger.

The Bengals, for whatever reason, have been perennially slow starters with Burrow. In the first two weeks of the season of the Burrow era, they’re 1-8 straight up and 2-6-1 against the spread. They just struggle early and pick up steam late in the year. This is what they always do. I thought they might buck that trend this year against the Patriots because they actually talked about their slow starts, but apparently not. They looked lost and unfocused in an embarrassing home loss.

Considering that, I’m going to side with the Chiefs. I will not be betting this game, however, because of the lost line value. Again, going from -3.5 to -6 is a huge deal. I can totally get backing the Bengals with that apparent value and perhaps hoping for a back-door cover, but based on history, we can expect them not to play their best in this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Bengals at +6, dropping the line to +5.5. I have to believe that this was just a value bet, given how much line movement there has been as a reaction to the Week 1 games.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’d bet on the Bengals if Joe Burrow and his receivers were healthy, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Burrow doesn’t seem like he’s 100 percent because of his wrist, while Tee Higgins will be out again. Ja’Marr Chase, meanwhile, still may not be in shape. The Bengals also have issues with their offensive line. I’m going to bet two units on the Chiefs.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The line has moved to -6.5. It looks like the sharps and public are on the Chiefs.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned, some sharp and public money moved this line to -6.5. I still like the Chiefs for two units. The best line is -6.5 -106 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -3.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

A good lean on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 68% (123,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Joe Burrow is 36-18 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-6 ATS otherwise).

Joe Burrow is 14-6 ATS after a loss.

Patrick Mahomes is 85-24 SU, 60-48 ATS (48-35 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -6.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 84 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

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DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos had a crucial injury situation with Garett Bolles. The inconsistent but talented left tackle suffered an injury in the opener and had to get an MRI. Luckily for the Broncos, Bolles received positive news, so there’s a good possibility that he’ll be able to play in this game. It’s safe to say that he’ll be needed against T.J. Watt, who obliterated the Falcons last week.

You’d think that Watt would also make rookie quarterback Bo Nix’s life a living hell, but I’m not sure how much of an impact he’ll have in this game. That may sound crazy to say, but Nix is the ultimate checkdown artist. He’ll simply get rid of the ball before Watt can get close to him on most occasions, especially of Bolles is there to protect his blind side.

Don’t get me wrong, however. This is not a recipe for success. Any sort of negative play will automatically ruin Denver’s drives, especially when considering that the running game won’t produce much. The Steelers just limited Bijan Robinson to 68 rushing yards on 18 carries, so they shouldn’t have any sort of issues restricting Javonte Williams.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: While Pittsburgh’s run defense figures to thrive again, I can’t say the same thing about the Broncos. Josey Jewell’s departure has made Denver’s ground defense far worse than it was last year. Kenneth Walker was able to easily trample over the Broncos en route to an easy victory.

I’d expect similar success from Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The duo has thrived in the past when faced with easier matchups, and I’d qualify this as such. The Broncos’ downgraded linebacking corps will also have to worry about Justin Fields’ scrambling ability.

Fields’ passing, on the other hand, is not too much of a worry. Fields isn’t great at airing the ball out to begin with, and his only viable threat, George Pickens, will see coverage from the terrific Patrick Surtain II.

RECAP: Something I like to do is fade rookie quarterbacks against great defensive-minded coaches. We have that dynamic in this game. Nix will be going up against Mike Tomlin, which is a colossal mismatch in the coach’s favor.

Generally, backing Tomlin is best when he’s an underdog. You also want to fade Tomlin as a big favorite. But what about a small favorite of -3 or less? Those situations have given us a reasonable outcome, as Tomlin is 30-26 against the spread as a favorite of -3 or less, whereas he’s 63-75 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more.

As long as this number is -3 or less, I’ll be on the Steelers. Having them cover -3.5 is a tough ask with a putrid offense, but I think -3 is doable. Granted, it’s probably most likely that this is a push on a three-point Pittsburgh win in a miserable defensive grinder, so I won’t be betting this game, barring some surprising injury news.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Broncos at +3, dropping the line to +2.5. Despite this, Garett Bolles missed Wednesday’s practice. Weird!

SATURDAY NOTES: Garett Bolles has no injury designation. I have nothing new to add to this game otherwise. This is still a slight lean to the Steelers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Still no interest here. On our NFL Picks YouTube show, Tom made a case for Denver.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Broncos at +3, but not at +2.5, so keep that in mind you want to wager on Denver. The best number for the Broncos is +3 -118 at DraftKings. If you like the Steelers, the best line is -2.5 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -2.5.

Computer Model: Steelers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Slight lean on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 60% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Steelers are 14-30 ATS as road favorites coming off a win under Mike Tomlin.

Broncos are 34-17 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.

Sean Payton is 3-17 ATS in Weeks 1-2 since 2013.

Opening Line: Steelers -2.5.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Slight chance of thunderstorms, 87 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: C.J. Stroud did not play his best game last week. He had some errant throws, including one very questionable one that easily should have been intercepted. Despite this, the Texans still scored 29 points en route to a road victory over the Colts.

Stroud doesn’t have the easiest matchup in this game. The Bears can bring pressure with Montez Sweat and newly acquired Darrell Taylor, and they have an All Pro cornerback in Jaylon Johnson who can shut down one of the Houston receivers. The problem for Chicago is that Stroud has three dynamite receivers at his disposal, not to mention Dalton Schultz. The Bears don’t have the best depth at cornerback, so this could be an issue in this game.

Another problem for Chicago is focusing on Joe Mixon. The former Bengal picked up where Devin Singletary left off last season, exploding for 159 rushing yards against a strong Indianapolis ground defense. The Bears are soft in the middle of their defensive line, as evidenced by their inability to clamp down on Tony Pollard last week, so Mixon figures to have another great outing.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I’ve mentioned my disdain for the Bears’ offseason results many times throughout the summer. Chicago had tons of cap space, but didn’t bother addressing the trenches on either side of the ball. This hurt Caleb Williams in the opener, as he saw tons of pressure from the Titans and struggled as a result.

Tennessee may have a top-five defense in the NFL, so it could be argued that this was simply a very difficult matchup for Williams. However, the Texans have personnel capable of hounding quarterbacks as well. Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter will harass Williams, forcing him into more poor throws. Williams is fortunate that he didn’t commit any turnovers last week, but there will be plenty of give-aways to come if the Bears can’t figure out how to protect their franchise quarterback.

The Bears will have to figure out some way to move the ball because it probably won’t happen on the ground. The Texans just restricted Jonathan Taylor to 48 rushing yards on 16 carries, so it’s unlikely that D’Andre Swift will be able to help out Williams very much.

RECAP: I was hoping people wouldn’t catch on to how bad the Bears were in Week 1. They “won” the game, but they were severely outclassed by the Titans. Tennessee had nearly double the yardage. It’s a joke that the Bears won, let alone covered the four-point spread.

Unfortunately, it seems as though everyone saw it. The advance spread on this game was -3.5, yet it’s up to -7 now. This was a game that stood out to me as a potential bet with Houston, but it’s hard to bite the bullet and accept a 3.5-point swing against you through the key number of six to the No. 2 key number of seven. Then again, it could just be that this is sticker shock.

Houston is a completely superior team to the Bears, who would probably be underdogs of 7.5 or more had they actually lost to Tennessee. Also, consider that this is another instance in which we have a rookie quarterback battling a smart, defensive-minded coach in DeMeco Ryans. I’m going to bet the Texans, but not as much as I would have if the spread were still -3.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are pounding the Bears, dropping the line from +7 to +6. I wonder if they’re on to something. Chicago was so bad against one of the top defenses in the NFL, so the team should be better this week as positive regression to the mean. I’m going to remove the projected two units.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Texans may not have their top offensive lineman, Juice Scruggs, who was downgraded in practice each day. The Bears will be missing their center as well, while Keenan Allen didn’t practice all week. All of this is a wash for me, so I’m still leaning Houston.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze sound like they’ll be limited if they play. I may bet the Texans. Check back around 7:45 for my final thoughts.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Keenan Allen is out, though the Texans will be missing Juice Scruggs. The sharps have been betting the Bears aggressively, driving this line down from +6.5/+7 to +6 or even +5.5 in some places. If you like the Texans, the best line is -5.5 -118 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -3.5.

Computer Model: Texans -9.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Sharp money on the Bears.

Percentage of money on Houston: 72% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -6.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Philadelphia, the greatest city in the world, home of my Philadelphia Eagles, the champions of Brazil! We went into Brazil and beat the stupid Packers even though I didn’t get to go because Mother wouldn’t sign my permission slip, but we still prevailed because we’re the best team in the world, and now the stupid Atlanta Hawks will feel my wrath and the wrath of my Philadelphia Eagles because they will succumb to the champions of Brazil!

Emmitt: Thanks, Cecil. I hear a lot of weird thing about the city of Brazil. Some player say he trapped in the hotel. Whenever I am in a hotel, I know I can leaves by taking the elevator to the G floor and then go outside. Maybe hotel in Brazil do not have a G floor. So the player would be best off checking every floor for the exit because one of the floor must have exit, or they got caught in a black hole, or the proper way to say it, African Americas hole.

Reilly: Emmitt, they were stuck in the hotel because it was too dangerous to go outside. This is why Mother didn’t sign my permission slip. She thought that Brazilian women would fall in love with me and corrupt me because I’m so handsome and I have lots of Eagles bobbleheads. Mother says I’m quite the catch, but I haven’t blossomed enough to talk to a girl yet even though I’m 73 years old.

Tollefson: Thank goodness we didn’t go to Brazil because I would have been miserable there. If I couldn’t leave my hotel, how would I have kidnapped local Brazilian women to clean and cook naked for me?

Reilly: Tolly, I don’t understand why you would need naked women to cook and clean for you when Mother does that for me. But let’s move on. With the success the NFL had in Brazil, other countries are putting in bids to have an NFL game in their country. We have a president of one of these countries with Charissa Thompson.

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. Randall Cunningham will start for the Eagles today, but I’m joined here by Vladimir Putin. President Putin, take it away.

Vladimir Putin: I do injury reports for game.

Charissa Thompson: Oh, that’s my job, President Putin.

Vladimir Putin: I do injury report, or I kill you. Here injury report. Jalen Hurts, he great. Kirk Cousin, I no like. Drake London, he hurt his hram. Back to you, Michael.

Reilly: Excuse me, President Putin, or should I call you President Pudding? You better not mess with me because my Philadelphia Eagles are the kings of Brazil! Hmph! Vice President Camel Toe Harris, tell President Pudding that no one can stop me and my Philadelphia Eagles, even the president of Russia.

Kamala Harris: Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country. Russia is a powerful country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine. So, basically, that’s wrong, and it goes against everything that we stand for.

Reilly: That’s great information, Camel Toe. You are a super smart person, so I can see why you’re one of the candidates for president.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Indian Kamala is just talking nonsense, and no one knows more about talking nonsense than me, and the only reason Kamala – how do you even pronounce that, anyway, it seems like every time she calls herself something else, Kamuhla, Kameela, Camel Toe – the only reason she is doing so well in the polls is because the mainstream media says she’s the best-looking candidate, but this is totally wrong, couldn’t be more wrong because, frankly, I’m the best-looking candidate on the ballot, and it’s not even close, at least that’s what I’ve been told, frankly, I personally don’t think I’m that great looking, though don’t get me wrong, I’m a very handsome guy, but not the most handsomest, but I had so many people come up to me and say, “President Trump! How did you get so good looking, and much better looking than Kamala?” and I always say thank you, that’s awfully nice of you because the mainstream media always calls me the ugliest candidate, which is not true because I’m not the ugliest candidate, they’re the ugliest candidate.

Wolfley: DONALD, I PERSONALLY THINK YOU ARE AS GREAT LOOKING AS A WATER BOTTLE WITH FUNGI CREAM FOR EYES, WHICH IS QUITE THE COMPLIMENT.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! Will someone tell President Pudding that my Philadelphia Eagles are the best!? New Daddy, tell President Pudding!

Jay Cutler: I’ll take chocolate pudding if you have any.

Reilly: New Daddy, we’re not talking about real pudding! Please pay attention to me!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about liquid desserts, Kevin. You mentioned pudding already, Kevin. What about the classic, Jell-O, Kevin? Just don’t molest women like Bill Cosby, Kevin. But you can’t talk to women anyway, Kevin. How about milkshakes, Kevin? Let’s chat about creme brulee, Kevin. We can now segue to mousse, Kevin. Now, it’s time to discuss yogurt, Kevin. Give me your thoughts on pastry cream, Kevin. That should be your nickname, Kevin, because you are so soft, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, AFTER I GET MY REVENGE ON PRESIDENT PUDDING, YOU’RE NEXT! We’ll be back after this!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles scored 34 points in the NFL’s first-ever Brazilian game, and yet the unit didn’t even play its best. Jalen Hurts made a couple of crucial mistakes, including one bone-headed interception thrown in the red zone. Fortunately for Hurts, Saquon Barkley saved the day with some amazing running. It’s truly astonishing what we’ve missed out on with Barkley because he’s been trapped behind the Giants’ pitiful offensive line all these years.

Barkley is unshackled behind Philadelphia’s stellar front. The Falcons provide a tougher ground matchup than the Packers, but they don’t project as one of the best run-stuffing defenses in the NFL. Barkley figures to thrive once again as both a rusher and a receiver out of the backfield.

The strength of the Falcons’ defense is the enhanced pass rush with Matthew Judon joining Grady Jarrett, as well as No. 1 cornerback A.J. Terrell being able to slow down opposing top receivers. Terrell can help limit A.J. Brown, but what about DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert? Atlanta’s pass rush won’t be able to make up for any other liabilities at cornerback in this game because Hurts is so well protected.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Speaking of pressure, we know Kirk Cousins will see plenty of it in this game. Cousins was severely bothered by T.J. Watt last week, who had a dominant performance despite having some big plays called back by penalties, some of which were unjustified. Cousins, of course, melted down at the sight of pressure because he’s one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in regard to clean pocket versus pressure dichotomy.

This is obviously bad news for Cousins because the Eagles have a stellar defensive line capable of bringing tons of heat. Cousins, who has not yet established any sort of chemistry with his new receiving corps, will likely continue to struggle with turnovers, though he’ll have the occasional big play in this contest because Philadelphia’s secondary still has some issues.

What Cousins won’t be able to do is hand the ball off to Bijan Robinson and expect consistent success. The Eagles are much better versus the run than the pass. They largely held Josh Jacobs in check in Brazil, so they should be able to do the same thing with Robinson.

RECAP: At first glance, the apparent value with the Falcons looks appealing. They were +4 on the advance line, but they’re now +6.5. If you like Atlanta, you’re getting 2.5 points of value and the key number of six, which would be great under normal circumstances.

However, there’s a wide gap between these two teams, and I hate backing Cousins when he’s tasked with battling a defense that brings tons of pressure. Cousins is one of the NFL’s worst quarterbacks when it comes to dealing with pressure, and he’ll see plenty of it in Philadelphia. Cousins lost during his prior two trips to Philadelphia, coincidentally both occurring in Week 2. This seems to be another Week 2 loss, though if I were betting the Eagles, I would be concerned with a back-door cover. This is where that key number of six comes into play, so I don’t think I’ll be betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp action to speak of yet, though we’ve yet to see a practice report.

SATURDAY NOTES: A.J. Brown popped up on the injury report with a hamstring injury. He was limited on Thursday. It goes without saying that this is an injury to watch. It must also be noted that Nate Landman missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday.

NFL ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN PARLAY: CeeDee Lamb, Mike Evans, Jordan Mason, Zach Charbonnet, Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, Tony Pollard, Kyren Williams, Isiah Pacheco, Jalen Hurts (0.25 Units to win 149.52) – FanDuel Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: A.J. Brown may miss this game with a hamstring. I still would like the Eagles, so perhaps we’ll get a better number if he’s inactive.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: A.J. Brown has been ruled out, dropping the line to -5 or -5.5. This makes the Eagles a bit more appealing because we get the key number of six. I may end up betting a unit on Philadelphia. I’ll have a same-game parlay and prop bet soon.

PLAYER PROP BET: I’m going DeVonta Smith over 71.5 receiving yards. In the second half of last year when other players got banged up, Smith eclipsed 71.5 receiving yards in six of his eight games. He plays in the slot, which is great for this matchup because the Falcons have an awful slot cornerback. The best number is over 71.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going to place Smith 80+ receiving yards with Jahan Dotson under 27.5 receiving yards, Ray-Ray McCloud over 27.5 receiving yards, and Jalen Hurts under 41.5 rushing yards. I don’t trust Dotson, who may see a lot of A.J. Terrell. McCloud saw seven targets last week. And Hurts topped 41.5 rushing yards just twice since Week 6 of last year! I’m going to bet these individually for 0.5, 0.5, and 1 unit, respectively, and I’ll post the best place to find these lines below. This $25 parlay pays out $265.85 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps jumped on the Eagles in the wake of the A.J. Brown news, taking the line off +6. I don’t have a strong take on this game, but I’m willing to make a small wager on the Eagles at -5.5 as a value bet. The best line is -5.5 -106 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -4.

Computer Model: Eagles -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Plenty of money on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 67% (3150,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Eagles -6.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 71 degrees. Light wind.