2010 NCAA Tournament Picks: Final Four

Kansas (32-2)

WHY TO LOVE: So many reasons why Kansas is awesome:

– Sherron Collins (15.3 ppg, 4.3 apg) is the best experienced point guard in the NCAA Tournament. He was on Kansas’ championship team and knows what it takes to win.

– Kansas has tons of experience; they advanced to the Sweet 16 last year and gave runner-up Michigan State everything it could handle.

– The team as a whole shoots 40.4 percent from three. Collins (37.6%), Xavier Henry (40.7) and Tyrel Reed (44.9) can all drain long-range jumpers.

– The Jayhawks are a rabid defensive team, allowing just 63.6 points per game.

– Kansas was 9-2 on the road, losing only at Tennessee and Oklahoma State. Impressive away victories came at Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Kansas State and Temple.

– At 6-11, 245, Cole Aldrich (11.3 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 3.5 bpg) is a beast inside.

– Fulfills all five requisites in the Portrait of a Champion (returning head coach, scored 76 ppg, 10+ margin of victory, in the tournament last year, seeded 1-4).

WHY TO HATE: Three of the top five scorers are underclassmen. However, everyone but Xavier Henry has Sweet 16 tournament experience, so it’s not that big of a deal.

THE VERDICT: Kansas is my favorite to win the NCAA Tournament.

Kentucky (32-2)

WHY TO LOVE: Freshman point guards don’t win the NCAA Tournament – unless they happen to be once-in-a-decade prospects. John Wall qualifies. Wall (16.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 6.2 apg) is one of the top players in the country and will be the No. 1 pick in the 2010 NBA Mock Draft.

Wall is joined by three other great players. They include 6-11 freshman DeMarcus Cousins (15.6 ppg, 10.1 rpg), 6-9 junior forward Patrick Patterson (14.9 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 41.5 3PT) and freshman guard Eric Bledsoe (10.4 ppg, 35.5 3PT).

Four Kentucky players hit better than 35 percent of their three-pointers: Patterson, Bledsoe, Darnell Dodson (37.2) and Darius Miller (37.5).

For such a young team, a 7-2 road record is impressive. The Wildcats’ big victories outside of Lexington were at Florida, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.

WHY TO HATE: Inexperience is the only issue here. If Kentucky’s top players were upperclassmen, they’d be the clear favorite to win the whole thing.

Doesn’t fulfill all five requisites in the Portrait of a Champion (~~returning head coach~~, scored 76 ppg, 10+ margin of victory, ~~in the tournament last year~~, seeded 1-4).

THE VERDICT: The Wildcats will probably be in the Final Four, and despite their youth, they’ll be in the mix to win it all. I like Kansas and Ohio State more than Kentucky, but Wall, Cousins, Patterson and Bledsoe are so good that they could easily come out on top.

Syracuse (28-4)

WHY TO LOVE: This Syracuse team seems to have it all:

– They have five double-digit scorers.

– They have experience (four of those five players are upperclassmen).

– They can hit from long range, nailing threes at a 38-percent clip as a team. Wes Johnson (38.1%), Andy Rautins (39.4), Brandon Triche (39.7) and Mookie Jones (46.3) are all lethal from deep.

– They have a coach who knows how to win in March.

– They were 8-1 on the road this year, losing only at Louisville. They won at Georgetown, Notre Dame and West Virginia.

– Fulfills all five requisites in the Portrait of a Champion (returning head coach, scored 76 ppg, 10+ margin of victory, in the tournament last year, seeded 1-4).

WHY TO HATE: Center Arinze Onuaku injured his knee/hamstring in the Big East Tournament opener. It looks like he’ll be able to play in the NCAA Tournament, but will he be 100 percent?

THE VERDICT: Assuming Onuaku is OK, Syracuse should be able to make it to the Final Four. I won’t have them winning the championship, but they certainly can.

Villanova (24-7)

WHY TO LOVE: Save for Dante Cunningham, this is the same team that went to the Final Four last year, so you know that they’re capable of making a deep run. The Wildcats are led by senior guard Scottie Reynolds (18.8 ppg, 3.4 apg), who has hit huge shots in the Big Dance before. The top four scorers are upperclassmen.

Villanova is dangerous from outside, hitting 37.2 percent as a team. Four guys are better than 35 percent from deep: Reynolds (39.9%), Corey Fisher (38.9), Corey Stokes (35.5) and Taylor King (36.2).

Impressive road wins include West Virginia, Maryland, Marquette and Louisville.

WHY TO HATE: The Wildcats don’t have great size, but that didn’t hurt them last year. Besides, guard play wins in March.

Villanova limped its way to the finish line; entering the Big East Tournament, the Wildcats concluded the year with a 2-4 slump. Losing to Marquette in the tournament opener didn’t help.

Doesn’t fulfill all five requisites in the Portrait of a Champion (returning head coach, scored 76 ppg, ~~10+ margin of victory~~, in the tournament last year, seeded 1-4).

THE VERDICT: I’ll be shocked if Villanova doesn’t make it into the second weekend. Another trip to the Elite Eight could definitely happen.

2010 NCAA Tournament: Final Four Picks

#1M Kansas over #1W Syracuse

I’ve liked Kansas to win the NCAA Tournament even before the season began. They have the best experienced point guard in the country. Sherron Collins has been here before. He is a tremendous leader who wills his team to victory. Syracuse is a very good team, but I don’t think they have someone like that. The Orange Men also don’t have the tournament experience that the Jayhawks possess.

#1E Kentucky over #2S Villanova

Kentucky is one of the few teams in the country that can beat Villanova’s guard play and expose the Wildcats’ front court. DeMarcus Cousins (or Derrick Coleman Jr., as Bill Simmons hilariously dubbed him), will be too much for Villanova to handle.

#1M Kansas over #1E Kentucky

Now where have we seen this before? A veteran Kansas squad versus a very young John Calipari-coached team? Hmm…

I like Kansas here. Kentucky has the better players, but they are very inexperienced. If the Wildcats were juniors, they would win this game. But right now, the Jayhawks have the superior team.

Also worth noting is that seventeen of the past 18 teams that have won the NCAA Tournament have shared these traits:

– Had a head coach who was with the team the year before.
– Scored 76 points per game.
– Out-scored their opponents by an average of at least 10 points.
– Had been seeded 1-4.
– Participated in the NCAA Tournament the year before.

Kansas fulfills all five of those traits. Kentucky meets only three of those; Calipari is a new coach, and the Wildcats weren’t in the NCAA Tournament last year.