NBA Picks for Sunday, May 11, 2025 (0-2, -$345)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets.
Line: Thunder by 7.5.
3:30 PM ET
This seems almost as easy as the Celtics bet we made yesterday. The Thunder are far better than the Nuggets, and they’ll be desperate to win now that they’re down 2-1. Their depth is really going to start kicking in now, as the Nuggets don’t have anything beyond their starting lineup and Russell Westbrook.
Player Prop: Star players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are better on the road. He’s also much better after losses this year. Excluding one game against the Jazz where he barely played in an utter blowout, he averaged 33.3 points per game following a defeat. The best number is over 31.5 points -118 at FanDuel.
No-Sweat Same-Game Parlay: FanDuel has a no-sweat same-game parlay today. If we lose, we’ll use the no-sweat token on an NFL exacta. I’m going with Thunder -7, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points, and Chet Holmgren over 15.5 points. This same-game parlay pays +473 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Thunder -7.5 +102 (2 Units) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points -118 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$120
Same-Game Parlay: Thunder -7, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points, Chet Holmgren over 15.5 points +473 (0.25 Units to win 1.2) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$25
NBA Picks for Saturday, May 10, 2025 (1-1, +$95)
Boston Celtics at New York Knicks.
Line: Celtics by 6.5.
3:30 PM ET
The Celtics have held 20-point leads in each of the first two games, yet trail 2-0 in this series. This is the ultimate buy-low spot, as Boston’s 25-percent three-point shooting is bound to improve to the mean.
Player Prop: Star players like Jayston Tatum are better on the road. He averages nearly four more points in away games, so let’s take advantage of that. The best number is over 27.5 points -117 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Celtics -6.5 +105 (2 Units) – DraftKings — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Jayson Tatum over 27.5 points -117 (1 Unit) – BetRivers — Incorrect; -$115
NBA Picks for Friday, May 9, 2025 (1-1, -$100)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets.
Line: Thunder by 6.5.
10:00 PM ET
What we saw in Game 2 was way more indicative of how this series will go. In fact, I’m expecting a Thunder sweep for the remainder of the series. They have the superior defense, coaching, and depth.
Player Prop: Star players like Chet Holmgren are better on the road. He averages nearly three more points in away games, so let’s take advantage of that. The best number is over 15.5 points -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Thunder -6.5 +105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Chet Holmgren over 15.5 points -105 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Thursday, May 8, 2025 (1-1, +$95)
Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves.
Line: Timberwolves by 11.5.
8:30 PM ET
Despite what happened in Game 1, I already considered the Timberwolves to be the superior team. Now, the Warriors will be without Steph Curry. Minnesota had its worst shooting night of the playoffs two nights ago, so I don’t expect a repeat performance.
Player Prop: Rudy Gobert’s usage has increased lately. The Timberwolves may need more of him tonight with the Curry-less Warriors likely to deploy a larger lineup. The best number is over 20.5 points + rebounds -112 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves -11.5 +102 (2 Units) – DraftKings — Correct; +$205
NBA Player Prop: Rudy Gobert over 20.5 points + rebounds -112 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$110
NBA Picks for Wednesday, May 7, 2025 (1-1, +$105)
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder.
Line: Thunder by 11.
9:30 PM ET
OK, let’s try this again. The narrative that these road teams would be exhausted from their Game 7s has proven to be very wrong. This game, however, could be where fatigue sets in, as the Nuggets celebrated their Game 1 victory as if they were a 16-seed knocking off a No. 1 in the NCAA Tournament. I’ll be shocked if this game is competitive. The Thunder were up by 8-15 points for most of Game 1, so given their desparation, they should take care of business tonight.
Player Prop: Jrue Holiday returned to full strength in Game 1. He has an easy defensive matchup in this series, and you know I like to bet on role players at home. The best number is over 10.5 points -106 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Thunder -11 +104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Jrue Holiday over 10.5 points -106 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$105
NBA Picks for Tuesday, May 6, 2025 (1-1, -$100)
Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves.
Line: Timberwolves by 7.
9:30 PM ET
The Warriors are an old and hobbled team. They needed a miraculous shooting night from Buddy Hield – who couldn’t come through for us in Game 6, by the way – to advance past Houston. The rested Timberwolves have the fifth-best three-point defense in the NBA, and they should also own Golden State on the glass.
Player Prop: Even though we’re betting on the Timberwolves, we’re going to fade Anthony Edwards. Why? Edwards, like Jayson Tatum, does so much more in road games. When at home, he allows his teammates to do more of the scoring. There’s also a chance this game is a blowout, so Edwards’ minutes could be lower than usual. The best number is under 27.5 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves -7 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Anthony Edwards under 27.5 points -105 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Monday, May 5, 2025 (1-1, -$100)
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder.
Line: Thunder by 11.
9:30 PM ET
The Thunder are deep and well rested. The Nuggets are tired and thin, and they have the inferior defense. Oklahoma City should be able to handle this game rather easily against the Nuggets, who aren’t nearly as good on the road.
Player Prop: Let’s go back to something that has worked very well for us. We’re going under Jayson Tatum points because he tends to let his teammate do most of the work in early-series home games. The best number is under 27.5 -105 at BetMGM.
NBA Pick: Thunder -11 +104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Jayson Tatum under 27.5 points -105 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
