2009 NFL Draft Mailbag

NFL Draft Mailbag Notes: Note that the e-mails I received have been italicized and left unedited. My responses follow them.

4/11/09

2009 NFL Draft E-mails – Mark Sanchez Trade

From Tim L.:

You are way off on your mock prediction. There is no way we trade up to get Sanchez in this years� draft. Kyle Orton grew up in a spread offense in college and looks to be a good fit under McDaniels scheme. THAT SAID, if Orton doesn�t work out in 2009 then I believe a QB will be sought out in the much deeper QB class of 2010. McDaniels really looks like he is sold on Orton and it will take an entire season to change his mind if it is changed.

Whatever you believe about Cutler, the dude was 17-20 as a starter and many of the losses were not caused by our horrible defense. Look at how many turnovers he has had in the red zone. Way too many. Orton is 20-12 as a starter and doesn�t turn the ball over like Cutler. I think the Broncos got a great deal. They have 5 picks in the first 100 this year and 2 first rounders� next year. You over estimate Jay Cutler. I was a fan of the guy and loved watching him at times, but I also complained to no end about his lack of checking down in his reads. He locks on his guy and pulls the trigger too many times.

In any case, you should rethink the Broncos position here. We will go defense, maybe RB in the first, but we will not likely trade up to get a QB.

My Response:

Kyle Orton will only be around for one year, and unless Denver has the worst record in the NFL next year, they’ll miss out on Sam Bradford, meaning they’ll either have to take Tim Tebow or settle for nothing in terms of quarterback (Colt McCoy is a Round 2-3 prospect). Next year’s QB class is not nearly as deep as people think.

Orton is nowhere near the quarterback Cutler is. Orton built his record up because his defense backed him up. He can’t make all the throws, he’s inconsistent and very injury-prone. Just ask any Bears fan.

There is no way Denver is going RB first; McDaniels is going to run the same RBBC as he did in New England, and he brought in way too many FA RBs.

The Broncos will go after Mark Sanchez; his stock is on fire, and the Broncos will be lucky to have him; someone else can trade up for him, or Cleveland may even take him at No. 5.

From Tim L. (again):

Kyle Orton had issues on an offense that was anemic�what will happen when he is placed among a talent-filled offense? Will he improve upon his 20-12 winning percentage? Will he improve upon his 58% career completion percentage? Will he improve upon his 2-1 TD to INT ratio? I think so. Cutler, meanwhile, will not have a talented offense surrounding him, but will benefit from a strong defense. I think he improves the Bears chances of winning marginally, while Orton may be a downgrade, the drop off shouldn�t be much in McDaniels� eyes as his ideal is about team not individual. Plus we have four first rounders in the next two years to fix our defense.

May I ask one thing? What would your mock be if the Broncos don�t go QB in the first round? I am just curious because you are a good football mind out there in the blogosphere. Obviously, we both have Tyson Jackson high on our list�but would you keep English as our second pick?

Take it easy man�and watch some film on Orton. Dude isn�t as bad as people think and Cutler isn�t as good as people think. 😉 Broncos got a great deal for a guy who had no desire to play in Denver.

My Response:

The most telling stat about a quarterback isn’t completion percentage because he could be throwing all checkdowns. It’s not TD-INT ratio because with a good defense, a quarterback doesn’t have to press his throws, allowing him to make all safe ones. It’s not winning percentage if you have one of the best defenses in the NFL backing you up (i.e. Bears with Orton). It’s YPA (yards per attempt).

In his career, Kyle Orton has never had a YPA greater than 6.4, which is a pretty pathetic number. That means he doesn’t take any shots downfield, and it also means he doesn’t throw any long outs. Believe me, I’ve seen enough of Orton; most of his throws are checkdowns and dumpoff passes because he can’t make the throws and he never had to.

With a horrific defense behind him, my guessing is that this is going to be Orton’s worst season as a pro. I think you’ll see his interception total skyrocket because he’ll be forced to win games consistently for the first time in his career. And my guessing also is that you’ll be yearning for Jay Cutler and his career 7.4 YPA by October.

Anyway, if the Broncos don’t go QB, they’ll probably look at Tyson Jackson and then a linebacker like Brian Cushing or Rey Maualuga, assuming B.J. Raji isn’t there.

From Tim L. (a third time):

You are missing the point here. Chicago didn�t have a very effective offensive line and poor talent at WR. I think Orton could increase his YPA at least by 1.0 with Denver�s incredible oline and talented WR core. Watch Jay Cutler�s YPA with the Bears and compare it to Orton�s when(yes, when, not if) he starts for the Broncos. Cutler made a bad decision and will see his numbers drop significantly. The dude was never pressured and still threw 18 INTs.

We will agree to disagree. I do think we will draft a QB, but not until late in the draft. Jay Cutler doesn�t know how to check down with a talent-laden WR core�how will he learn to check down with no talent around him? We shall see man.

My Response:

The Bears did have an effective offensive line. They gave up 29 sacks last year. In 2007, Orton was sacked just twice in three games. His YPA still suffered, and his weapons won’t matter if he can’t make all the throws. His arm strength is limited, and as I said, his INT total will go up in Denver. Cutler, meanwhile, was pressured to score points in shootouts. Back when Peyton Manning had terrible defenses (pre-Tony Dungy) his INT totals were pretty high as well. Cutler is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and like I said, you guys will find out what you took for granted by October.

From Craig C.:

I read your latest draft this morning and I see where you made comment that Denver might move up to 8 and take Sanchez. I was thinking why would Jacksonville do this when they are also interested in him. If I were Denver I would try to move up to #5 and give Cleveland some more picks and then they would get Sanchez,of course the only fear there is that Seattle might take him… What do you think?

My Response:

The Jaguars aren’t interested in Mark Sanchez, and if they said they are, it’s a smokescreen. They just gave David Garrard a lot of money, and their owner is definitely not interested in paying big bucks to another quarterback.

I also don’t think Seattle will take him either because they have a lot of money invested in Matt Hasselbeck, and all of the moves they’ve made this offseason indicate that they’re trying to win now; not build for the future.

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2011 NFL Draft Mailbag Archive:

2011 NFL Draft Mailbag Home
Post-Round 1 E-mail - April 29
Hate Mail Volume 7 - April 10
Crackhead Mail Volume 2 - April 10
Random AFC Questions and Comments Volume 5 - April 10
Random NFC Questions and Comments Volume 5 - April 10
Hate Mail Volume 6 - April 3
Crackhead Mail - April 3
Trade and Prospect Speculation - April 3
Hate Mail Volume 5 - March 28
Cam Newton Mailbag - March 28
Random AFC Questions and Comments Volume 4 - March 28
Random NFC Questions and Comments Volume 4 - March 28
Hate Mail Volume 4 - March 13
Random AFC Questions and Comments Volume 3 - March 13
Random NFC Questions and Comments Volume 3 - March 13
Random Questions and Comments - March 7
Hate Mail Volume 3 - March 7
Combine Questions and Comments - March 7
Combine Hate Mail - March 7
Hate Mail Volume 2 - Feb. 22
Random AFC Questions and Comments Volume 2 - Feb. 22
Random NFC Questions and Comments Volume 2 - Feb. 22
Quarterbacks - Feb. 15
Hate Mail - Feb. 15
Random AFC Questions and Comments - Feb. 15
Random NFC Questions and Comments - Feb. 15