NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2024 – Early Games

Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at Houston Texans (10-7)
Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 42.5.
Saturday, Jan. 11, 4:40 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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Week 18 Analysis: We had a slightly losing Week 18, one that could have gone much differently. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Colts, 5 units (push): The Colts were up by a touchdown for most of the second half, but allowed a touchdown drive when D’Ernest Johnson of all players converted a third-and-11 with a 22-yard run. The Colts had a chance to cover in overtime, but Joe Flacco, who had a horrendous game for the most part, made a horrible throw on third down in overtime.

Redskins, 3 units (loss): Where was this effort? Why did Marcus Mariota play with the sixth seed on the line?

Chargers, 3 units (win): The Chargers, unlike the Redskins, handled their Week 18 game with professionalism. They moved up in playoff seeding as a result, and this game was never in doubt after the middle of the second quarter.

Seahawks, 5 units (loss): I have to shoulder the blame on this one, though the Seahawks were still a two-point conversion away from pushing. I should have locked in a much better number earlier in the week, but my mind wasn’t right because I had the flu.

Cardinals, 3 units (win): Getting two of the three games in the late window correct was nice.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: It’s astonishing that Bobby Slowik has gotten any head-coaching interviews thus far. Houston has had the most predictable offensive play-calling this year, as Slowik’s stock has dropped more than that of any assistant coach I can recall. The Texans constantly run on early downs, which is fine if they’re battling a defense that can’t stop the run. However, if they’re going up against a stout ground defense, C.J. Stroud will often get locked into third-and-long situations, resulting in some blowout losses.

The Chargers have not stopped the run well since the end of November, which was when Denzel Perryman was lost to an injury. Perryman is a stellar run defender, so his absence has understandably made the Chargers softer against the rush. There’s a chance Perryman will be able to return, but he’s had issues returning to full health. He took the field recently, but was removed when he aggravated his injury. This could happen again if he’s deemed ready to play.

Assuming Perryman is out or hobbled, Joe Mixon figures to rip through the Chargers’ run defense. This will put Stroud into favorable down-and-distance situations. He’ll have plenty of success hooking up with Nico Collins, as the Chargers have some issues in the secondary as well.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Perryman wasn’t the only injured player who adversely impacted the Chargers down the stretch. J.K. Dobbins’ absence was also huge because there was no semblance of a running game with Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal handling the workload.

Unlike Perryman, Dobbins was able to return to action recently. He’s played two games since his injury, and the Chargers’ offense has been much better as a result. They should be able to move the ball on the ground against the Texans, who have not handled opposing ground attacks very well.

The strength of Houston’s defense is the edge rush. The Texans are capable of placing tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so this is where Dobbins’ great running will be vital to keep Justin Herbert out of long-yardage situations. Also, the Chargers’ talented tackles will give Herbert a chance of being kept clean in the pocket.

RECAP: The Texans will hope to become like the 2008 Cardinals. That Arizona team, quarterbacked by Kurt Warner, won its terrible division very easily, but was miserable down the stretch. It was blown out on numerous occasions, including a 47-7 massacre at New England. This occurred in Week 16, which was followed by a win over the Seahawks in the season finale. This perhaps gave the team some confidence, which it took into the playoffs. Arizona went on to beat the Falcons, Panthers, and Eagles in the postseason before battling the Steelers down to the wire in an exciting Super Bowl.

This Houston team has plenty of similarities. It started the year off well with its talented quarterback, but collapsed down the stretch. There was also an embarrassing defeat in the penultimate game (31-2 vs. Ravens) before coming back with a victory in the finale against the Titans.

I think there’s a decent chance the Texans pull the upset. They have a terrific running game, which they can use against the Chargers, who have been weak against the run for the past six weeks. This will put Stroud into short-yardage situations, which will allow him to move the chains. The Chargers should be able to score as well, but this seems like more of a 50-50 game that could go either way, so I will be taking the points.

Our Week 19 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
Line: Ravens by 10. Total: 46.5.
Saturday, Jan. 11, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 44-38 ATS through 16 weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Buccaneers -14.5

Chargers -7

Packers -10

Chiefs +10.5

Texans +2.5

The public went 2-3 this past week. The public is now 48-43.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Redskins +3

Chargers -2.5

Vikings -1.5

The public likes the road teams, two of which are favorites.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers scored only 17 points in their prior visit to Baltimore, but that number is misleading for a couple of reasons. First, Russell Wilson, who went 22-of-33 for 217 yards and two touchdowns, coughed up the ball right near Baltimore’s goal line. The Steelers easily could’ve scored seven more points. And second, George Pickens wasn’t available, so Wilson’s top threat was Calvin Austin.

Pickens will be available this time, which is huge because it allows the Steelers to exploit Baltimore’s biggest weakness, which is the secondary. The Ravens have been torched by quality passing attacks all year, and that should continue in this game with Wilson locating Pickens for explosive plays.

Though the Steelers should be able to throw all over the Ravens, running won’t be much of an option. The Ravens, while inept against the pass, are very stout versus the rush.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: If there’s one team that knows how to slow down Lamar Jackson, it’s the Steelers. Pittsburgh built its defense to combat Jackson, after all. There’s a reason why the Ravens have difficulty reaching 20 points in this rivalry. They did so in the prior meeting, but seven of those points came off a pick-six, and there was some quit for Pittsburgh toward the end when it was obvious that the team, missing Pickens, didn’t have the offensive firepower to pull the upset.

The Steelers will put forth a much greater effort in this game. That’s mostly pertaining to stopping Derrick Henry, who rumbled for 162 yards on 24 carries in the 34-17 win. The Steelers should be better against the run than that. They’ll do a better job of limiting Henry, and they’ll continue to frustrate Jackson, who managed just 22 rushing yards against Pittsburgh in that meeting.

There’s a chance that Jackson could be missing his top threat as well. Zay Flowers got hurt in the season finale when he grabbed his knee following his first catch of the afternoon. It’s unclear what his status will be at the moment.

RECAP: This spread is absurd. I know the Steelers haven’t exactly played well recently, but man, this line is completely out of control.

If you disagree, consider this: The Ravens, who have been overrated all year on the count of their poor pass defense, have played against five Group B teams this year. Those games were a loss of seven (Chiefs), win by seven (Redskins), loss by two (Steelers), win by seven (Chargers), and win by 17 (Steelers). That second Pittsburgh game was without Pickens, and it featured a Pittsburgh fumble inside the Baltimore 5-yard line and a pick-six at the end to make the score more lopsided than it really was. Thus, if you remove that contest, the Ravens haven’t beaten a Group B team by more than a touchdown all year.

If you want to argue that the Steelers are not a Group B team, that’s fine, but I’d disagree. Their defense is still top notch, while some of their losses down the stretch occurred without Pickens. They also played some tough opponents in the final four games, taking on the Eagles and Ravens without Pickens, and then the Chiefs and desperate Bengals.

Ravens-Steelers games are almost always close, and now Baltimore may be the team missing its No. 1 receiver. I think the Steelers could pull this upset, so I love them getting close to double digits.