NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2024 – Late Games

Denver Broncos (10-7) at Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Line: Bills by 8.5. Total: 47.
Sunday, Jan. 12, 1:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

I had a bunch of hate from my NFL Power Rankings from Vikings fans. We know that Minnesotans tend to be stupid people, as evidenced by their poor voting habits, so it’s only natural that they would be just as dumb concerning their football team:



Cash the Red needs to calm down before he pops a blood vessel. Hopefully he gets the anger-management help he sorely needs.

Next one:



It’s quite delightful being called a clown show. People pay hand over fists to get clowns to perform at their kids’ birthday party. Just wait until I tell my wife that we can have a clown show for free!

I don’t think this guy thought things through:



Salibu learned an important lesson today, which is to think before you speak.

Believe it or not, there’s more:



You know what they say about Minnesotans who assume things.

Final one:



Nuk Nuk just sounds retarded. “NUK NUK ANSWER BAD GUY WHO HATE VIKING ON TWITTER. NUK NUK EAT GLUE, OOPSIE.”

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Broncos have a great defensive ranking, but things haven’t gone so well for them when they’ve battled explosive offenses. Joe Burrow ripped them apart on a recent Saturday. Justin Herbert did the same thing in a second half prior to that. And who could forget what Jameis Winston accomplished in a Monday night thriller?

Josh Allen obviously quarterbacks an explosive offense, so I imagine he’ll continue to target the weaknesses of Denver’s secondary. It’s unclear if Amari Cooper will play, but Allen can make up for it with his great mobility.

One area in which the Bills won’t have as much success is via the running backs. James Cook has an extremely difficult matchup in this game, as Denver ranks in the top five when it comes to stopping the rush.

DENVER OFFENSE: Like the Broncos, the Bills rank in the top five of run defense. In fact, the two teams are right next to each other in run defense rankings, with the Broncos and BIlls slotting in at fourth and fifth, respectively. Denver doesn’t have much of a great rushing attack anyway.

Bo Nix will have to do a lot himself in this game, which doesn’t bode well for Denver’s chances. Nix has been great in some games this year, but mostly against some of the inferior defenses. Nix has struggled in tougher matchups, getting crushed by the Ravens, for example.

This figures to be another tough spot for Nix. The Bills typically do a great job of covering outside receivers, so they’ll be able to smother Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims. Buffalo is weaker to slot receivers and tight ends, but the Broncos don’t really attack the opposition at those positions.

RECAP: This is the most lopsided game of the opening round of the playoffs. The Bills shouldn’t have much of a problem dispatching the Broncos.

This may confuse some people because Denver may have seemed impressive to some, especially in the wake of its 38-0 victory over the Chiefs. However, if you exclude that backup-ridden game, six of Denver’s nine wins this year have come against teams rated Group D or worse. Think about that. Two-thirds of their successful results have come against bad or dreadful opponents. The three exceptions were victories over the Buccaneers, Jets, and Colts. Tampa Bay was completely distracted because it had just achieved revenge against the Lions. The Jets were also unfocused because they had a trip to London following the game. And we know what happened with Jonathan Taylor in that Indianapolis victory.

The Broncos have been outmatched against the better teams in the NFL. They’re 0-5 straight up against teams in Group B, suffering two blowout defeats. And they didn’t play against a Group A team all season. Until now.

I’m sure the argument will be made that the Bills could lose this game because they nearly did so against Skylar Thompson two years ago. However, that was a severely damaged Bills team reeling from the Damar Hamlin incident that went on to get demolished at home versus the Bengals in the following round. This Bills squad is in a much better place.

Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Line: Eagles by 4.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Jan. 12, 4:40 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called My Two Dead Uncles.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It’s currently unclear if Jalen Hurts will be able to play in this game. Hurts entered concussion protocol during the Week 17 battle against the Redskins, but he’s still in it. He could be cleared by kickoff, but it has to be worrying for Philadelphia that he failed to exit the protocol during the idle week.

If Hurts can’t go, it’ll be either Kenny Pickett or Tanner McKee. Obviously, backup quarterbacks have done quite well for the Eagles in the playoffs over the years, and this game could add to that legacy. The Packers have issues at outside cornerback with Jaire Alexander injured, which seems like a big problem against A.J. Brown. The Packers will need to counter this with a dynamic pass rush, but it doesn’t seem like their edge players will be able to beat Philadelphia’s great tackles.

Conversely, Saquon Barkley has a difficult matchup. Though he exploded for a brilliant Week 1 performance against the Packers, Barkley has his work cut out for him in this matchup, as Green Bay has risen to third in the rush defense rankings.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Hurts isn’t the only questionable quarterback in this game. “No Cookie” Jordan Love banged his arm in the Week 18 game against the Bears and had to leave with some sort of injury. It didn’t look like he had feeling in his fingers, which would obviously be problematic with a game coming up on no rest.

Love’s arm injury isn’t the only concern the Packers have. Christian Watson was knocked out with an injury as well, so unless he makes a miraculous recovery, Green Bay won’t have its dynamic speed threat in this game. We’ve seen over the past two seasons that the Packers aren’t the same without Watson, which makes sense because they have a bunch of No. 2 receivers who can’t take the top off the ball. They will not threaten Philadelphia’s secondary.

It would be nice if the Packers would be able to turn to the run amid these injuries, but that won’t be possible. While Green Bay is third versus the rush, the Eagles rank at the very top against it. Josh Jacobs won’t have much success on the ground as a consequence.

RECAP: It’s rare when we don’t know one quarterback for a playoff matchup, but two questionable signal-callers is unheard of. And yet, that’s the position in which we’re in right now, thanks to injuries to Hurts and Love.

We’ll get some news on these quarterbacks later in the week, but any sort of seemingly positive news may not end up being so great. If Love tries to play hurt, he could be ineffective, as we’ve seen on a couple of occasions this year. And as for Hurts, quarterbacks coming off concussions have a very dubious track record of covering the spread. The fact that Hurts has been in concussion protocol for two weeks says that this concussion is serious, so it would be shocking if he were 100 percent in this game.

This may seem odd, but I’m probably going to be fading the team with the most seemingly positive quarterback news. Whichever quarterback rushes back too quickly can be faded because the other team will be giving 110 percent with its backup. And, as we very well know, one of these teams has had tremendous success with its backup quarterback in the playoffs, so it’s not like this is some sort of bizarre strategy.

Washington Redskins (12-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Jan. 12, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

I’m using this section to promote things from friends and readers of the Web site. If you want something promoted, shoot me an e-mail.

My friend Drew passed away four weeks ago after a battle with cancer. He was a great guy and a huge Eagles fan. He was very much into fantasy football; he was commissioner of one of my fantasy leagues for two decades. He’s survived by his wife and three young kids (ages 12, 10, 6), who will grow up without their father. If you can, please consider donating to the family to help them through this difficult time. Here’s the GoFundMe page for Drew if you’re able to give any support.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Jayden Daniels’ stats from his Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers are misleading. The stats show that Daniels was 17-of-24 for 184 yards, and he rushed for 88 yards and two touchdowns, but much of that came in garbage time. Daniels had struggled to move the chains for most of the afternoon.

This result wasn’t surprising. Not only was Daniels making his first start; he was doing so against Todd Bowles, who has a history of frustrating inexperienced mobile quarterbacks. It’s been a long time since the prior matchup, but Daniels is still technically a rookie. If the Buccaneers continue to keep him in the pocket, he’ll have to do everything aerially, which is possible against Tampa Bay’s injured secondary.

Daniels will have to do it all himself because he won’t be able to lean on the running game. The Buccaneers have one of the best ground defenses in the NFL, so neither Brian Robinson Jr. nor Austin Ekeler will have much success finding running room.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: While the Redskins won’t be able to run the ball effectively, the Buccaneers will be able to do lots of damage on the ground. The Redskins have one of the weakest run defenses of all the teams in the playoffs, which is very problematic against Bucky Irving, who has been phenomenal since taking over as the primary back for Tampa Bay.

Irving will pick up big chunks of yards in this game, allowing Baker Mayfield to operate in favorable passing opportunities. The Redskins are better against the pass than the run, but it’s certainly not ideal for them to be going up against a lethal passing attack featuring Mike Evans and the surging Jalen McMillan.

The Redskins must counter this with their pass rush, but that will prove to be difficult. Mayfield is shielded well, so the Buccaneers shouldn’t have much of an issue moving the chains all night.

RECAP: The Redskins couldn’t have been happy to see the Buccaneers leapfrog the Rams for the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoffs. I’m sure they would have much rather have battled the Rams rather than Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers shellacked the Redskins in the opener, 37-20. I’m sure it’ll be argued that this game was far too long ago, and that thee teams are different now. There’s some validity to that, and I don’t expect the rematch to be as lopsided. However, the matchup is still a very difficult one because Bowles’ defenses have been historically very stingy against mobile quarterbacks and quite overbearing versus rookie signal-callers. Daniels is no ordinary rookie, however, especially at this stage of the season, but he was dealing with leg soreness in Week 18, so if he’s not 100 percent, it’ll be more difficult for him to run around than it normally would be.

I like the Buccaneers to win this game. They should do a decent job of containing Daniels, all while successfully pounding the ball with Irving against Washington’s soft rush defense.

Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
Line: Vikings by 1.5. Total: 47.
Monday, Jan. 13, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Lost Angeles, the city of Hollywood pedophiles! In tonight’s game, the Minnesota Twins take on the LA Raiders. Guys, Mother warned me that if I come out to Lost Angeles, the Hollywood pedophiles will try to get a hold of me and make me do unspeakable things to them. I’m not even sure what she meant by that. My best guess is say bad things about my Philadelphia Eagles and wear a Dallas Cowboys jersey. Eww! Guys, what do you think? Are you just as scared of the Hollywood pedophiles as I am?

Emmitt: Thanks, Rubicante. I very scared of the pedophiles. Especially if he anything like the movie I use to watch each week call the X-Files. The Pedo-Files sound like he even more scarier than the show, which was about two guy named Mauler and Sculdman who investigate alien, monster, and alien who try to take over our planet and only he able to stop themself.

Reilly: Emmitt, that sounds like a real scary show. Mother said that at the blossoming age of 73, I am way too young to watch scary stuff like X-Files. Although Mauler and Sculdman sound like cool superheroes. Tolly, did your mother let you watch scary shows when you were a kid?

Tollefson: Reilly, I had no time for scary shows. I was watching porn at the age of four. People say that porn can be damaging to a child’s psyche, but I turned out to be a perfectly fine gentleman. I even let some of my female slaves watch porn with me if they’re obedient!

Reilly: Tolly, that’s very nice of you. I think if I had female slaves, I’d let them watch my Philadelphia Eagles with me unless they talked, and then I’d have to slap them. Speaking of talking women, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!



Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. According to our studio playoff expert, the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants both have a 93.09 percent chance of making the playoffs, and believe me, I’ve double checked his math because I take my job very seriously. We’re now joined by another world leader. This is a weak-looking man who looks upset.

Justin Trudeau: Hello, it saddens me that I had to step down as Prime Minister of Canada because Donald Trump threatened me and caused me to pee my pants. I am announcing that I am starting my own country, and I’m calling it Trudeau Land. I have several laws for Trudeau Land. First, no meanies like Donald Trump are allowed to enter the country and scare the dear leader into peeing his pants. Second, all citizens must refrain from using any offensive language against minorities and LGBTQ++&X6@$^ individuals. If they want to berate white people and Christians, that is permitted, but nothing else will be tolerated.

Charissa Thompson: This all sounds pretty gay, Jason.

Justin Trudeau: THIS. THIS IS WHAT I’M TALKING ABOUT. I SWEAR I AM NOT GAY. THIRD LAW, NO ONE IS ALLOWED TO CALL ME GAY ANYMORE. THOSE WHO VIOLATE MY LAWS WILL BE PUT ON TRIAL WHERE I WILL EXECUTE THEM IF I DEEM THEM TO BE GUILTY, WHICH THEY WILL BE, I PROMISE! Now, where do I go about having football games in my country?

Reilly: Justin, I can understand why you hate being called gay. Some people call me that because of my impressive Nick Foles bobblehead collection, but then they shut up when I tell them that Nick Foles is the best quarterback ever, and that I’m also the head honcho when broadcasting football.

Kamala Harris: First, let me say this: I grew up in a middle-class family. I have been unburdened by what has been. I even fell off the coconut tree, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Come on, Kevin Reilly, it’s time for us to have sex together so I can ride you to the top, you head honcho!

Joy Taylor: Did someone say head honcho!? Sounds like a job for Joy Taylor! Where is this head honcho, and how can I sleep with him to improve my standing in this company?

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, I thought Kamala was the only lady of the night in this booth, but I was wrong, it doesn’t happen often, in fact it rarely happens that everyone is surprised when I’m wrong because it never happens, because Trump is always right about everything, but there are exceptions to every rule, including the one that says Trump is always right, because Trump was wrong this time, I can’t believe it, but it’s true, Trump was wrong about there being one lady of the night in the booth, because there are two, including this beauty, Joy Taylor, who brings no joy to anyone, only misery, which is why Trump made the nickname for her Misery Taylor, which is a great nickname, and hardly a surprise because Trump comes up with the best nicknames, and Misery Taylor might be the best one of them all, especially because she’s a lady of the night, and unlike Kamala, she has some pretty big assets, not the biggest assets Trump has seen, because, well, Melania has the best assets, and only Trump has access to the best assets, but Kamala has the worst assets, she’s not even a lady of the night, she’s a lady of the dusk.

Wolfley: DONALD, I WOULD NOT BE QUICK TO CRITICIZE LADIES OF THE NIGHT BECAUSE MY TWIN SISTER, A STATUE WITH SILLY STRINGS FOR ARMS AND PHONE BOOTHS FOR FEET IS A LADY OF THE NIGHT. IN FACT, SHE WAS VOTED TOP LADY OF THE NIGHT ON MY HOME PLANET.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! New Daddy, all of these women are trying to have sex with me, but it’s all a trap to get me to get rid of my Nick Foles bobblehead collection, right!? Why else would all of these women want to have sex with me!?

Jay Cutler: I have no idea.

Reilly: Thank you, New Daddy, I really appreciate you saying that. No one knows why these women want to have sex with me!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about why women want to have sex with men, Kevin. Let’s begin with money, Kevin. Women love money, Kevin. Now, let’s discuss power, Kevin. Some women like Joy Taylor and Kamala love power, Kevin. Then, there’s attraction, Kevin. That’s clearly not you, Kevin, so let’s-.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, WOMEN THINK I AM HANDSOME, EVEN MOTHER SAID SO, AND YOU ARE STUPID AND FORGOT THE MOST IMPORTANT REASON, WHICH IS NICK FOLES BOBBLEHEAD COLLECTIONS, HA! We’ll be back after this!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams are a bizarre team. They score either 40 or 10 points, with almost nothing in between. It can be incredibly frustrating when handicapping their games, especially when laying 6.5 with them against Arizona, only to watch them muster 13 points.

The poor showing against the Cardinals was the result of Rob Havenstein’s injury. You wouldn’t think that one missing right tackle would influence the offensive output so much, but that’s exactly what transpired. Matthew Stafford was pressured very heavily from the right side all evening, resulting in stalled drives.

It seems reasonable to expect Havenstein to return, given that he’s had an extra week of rest following the Arizona game. We won’t have a good idea about this until Thursday when the initial injury report is released, but if Havenstein plays, the Rams project very well against Minnesota’s defense. The Vikings are stellar against the run, but have struggled against the pass, especially when their blitzes don’t work. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the NFL, but Matthew Stafford is excellent against the blitz. He has eight touchdowns and two interceptions when blitzed this year, and his completion percentage actually rises when defenses send extra pass rushers.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Speaking of pressure, Sam Darnold is known to be rattled when things break down in the pocket. He infamously said he was seeing ghosts one Monday night, after all. Any opposing defense that can bring heat will give Darnold some major issues.

Darnold had major issues against the Rams in the first matchup. His stats look fine, but he compiled some of his numbers in garbage time. He lost Christian Darrisaw in that game, which allowed the Rams to flood the pocket with their young, talented pass rushers. The Rams since added Cam Robinson, but I don’t think he’s going to make a huge difference.

The Rams have some flaws in their secondary that can be exploited, so it’s not like the Vikings will be completely shut out, or anything. However, I wouldn’t expect an explosive offensive performance that we’ve seen from them in some games this year.

RECAP: Darnold can’t be thrilled that the Rams ended up with the No. 4 seed instead of the Buccaneers. Darnold had a brutal experience taking on the Rams earlier this season. He lost 30-20, as his pass protection did not hold up very well at all. As discussed earlier, Darnold is a completely different quarterback when rattled in the pocket.

The Rams should be able to bring consistent pressure once again. Meanwhile, their offense should have success moving the ball as long as Rob Havenstein is on the field. The Vikings have a pass-funnel defense, and the Rams have a lethal passing attack as long as the two receivers and all the offensive linemen are healthy.

Besides, there’s nothing that says the Vikings should win by any sort of significant margin anyway. Since the loss of Darrisaw, the Vikings have played against four teams in Group A or B. In those games, they’ve won by two and three, and they’ve lost by 10 and 22.