NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 18, 2024 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2024): 7-7-1 (-$975)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2024): 6-7-1 (-$1,275)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 6-6-1 (-$1,370)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2024): 11-4-1 (+$2,395)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2024): 8-7-1 (+$930)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2024): 7-8-1 (+$310)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2024): 10-6 (+$150)
2024 NFL Picks: 134-123-10 (-$2,750)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 18 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

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Week 17 Analysis: We had a winning Week 17, thanks to our player props. The picks were OK. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Chargers, 3 units (win): Why didn’t we bet more on the Chargers? This was such an easy pick. Though, as Cam Newton once said, hindsight is 50/50.

Rams, 3 units (loss): I was surprised that the Rams couldn’t block the Cardinals at all. Rob Havenstein was out, but one missing lineman shouldn’t have disrupted the entire offensive line. Also, it seemed as though the Rams were sluggish in this game, as they seemingly didn’t know that they’d effectively clinch playoff berth by winning.

Buccaneers, 3 units (push): Another 50/50 hindsight pick. This one was never in doubt.

Packers, 5 units (loss): I was shocked by Green Bay’s lack of effort in this game. The Packers constantly made stupid mistakes. I thought this game would mean something to them because they could have gotten the No. 5 seed, but apparently not.

Lions First Half, 5 units (loss): I was worried about the Lions sitting their starters in the second half, so I bet the first half. The 49ers went out to have their best offensive half of the year to start the game, and then collapsed in the second half. Detroit didn’t cover the first half, but covered for the entire game. I’m speechless.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Browns did a tremendous job on Lamar Jackson in the first meeting. Cleveland upset Baltimore, limiting the Ravens to just 24 points. Jackson threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns, but he was restricted to just 46 rushing yards.

The Browns see Jackson twice per season, so they know how to game plan for him, unlike NFC teams that are bewildered by Jackson whenever they play against him. Thanks to Myles Garrett, Cleveland has the talent at the edge to keep Jackson in the pocket.

Jackson likely won’t run for very much again this week, but he should once again have a strong performance as a passer. The Browns have allowed some big plays in the secondary, so Zay Flowers, who caught seven balls for 115 yards in the prior matchup, should once again have a great game.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Keeping Jackson in the pocket was part of the formula for the upset. The other part was Jameis Winston. The erratic quarterback was 27-of-41 for 334 yards and three touchdowns against the Ravens, taking advantage of their poor secondary.

If Winston were available, the Browns would likely have the same success again. However, that won’t be the case because the Browns have decided to tank by replacing Winston with Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who is the worst quarterback we’ve seen over the past couple of years. That’s not hyperbole because the data backs that up. Since 2020, among the 95 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 70 passes, Thompson-Robinson ranks dead last in EPA. The bottom five in that span, by the way, are 91. Spencer Rattler, 92. Trevor Siemian, 93. Jake Luton, 94. Trace McSorley, and 95. Thompson-Robinson.

The Ravens can be beaten via the pass, but not by someone as inept as Thompson-Robinson. Cleveland is likely to score in the single digits once again.

RECAP: This line may seem absurdly high, but I find myself wondering if this is just because of sticker shock. We haven’t seen lines of -18 or higher very often in the NFL. There have been 22 favorites of -18 or more dating back to 1989. Laying 18 used to be a foolish endeavor, as these massive favorites were 5-12 against the spread from 1989 to 2013.

However, things have changed. Because of limited practice time that was agreed upon during the previous collective bargaining agreement, inferior teams have gotten worse. So, it’s not a surprise that these huge favorites are 5-0 against the spread since 2014. If you don’t have your calculator handy, that would make favorites of -18 or more 10-12 against the spread overall.

I’m not one to base my selection off trends, but this just shows that you can pick massive favorites and expect good results. We’ll be doing that here because there’s no way Thompson-Robinson can compete with the Ravens.

Our Week 18 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward were DNP in both days of practice. If Garrett is out, that changes my whole thesis about the Browns being able to contain Lamar Jackson in the pocket. Also, it looks like there are four Ravens with illnesses on the practice report, which is a major red flag. Despite this, I don’t think I could bring myself to bet the Browns.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m betting Zay Flowers over receiving yards. The Browns have issues with the deep pass, and Flowers torched them last time. The best number is over 56.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

There unfortunately aren’t enough props available to make a viable same-game parlay.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line is so high. And yet, it’s warranted. This is Baltimore or nothing for me. I don’t want to bet the Ravens because some of the players have the flu, but I have no faith in the Browns scoring anything with Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Browns won’t have Denzel Ward or Dalvin Tomlinson. The Ravens have to be the play here, but I’m not betting them as a 20-point favorite. The sharps aren’t touching this one either. The best line is -20 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -17/5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A (there were no advance spreads this week).

Computer Model: Ravens -15.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

No edge found.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 54% (148,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None .

History: Ravens have won 25 of the last 33 meetings.

Lamar Jackson is 13-22 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.

Opening Line: Ravens -17.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Sunny/clear, 31 degrees. MILD/HEAVY wind, 17 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I’d give the Bengals a decent chance of stopping Pittsburgh’s scoring attack if George Pickens were sidelined again. Pickens came back from injury last week, however. While this didn’t translate to a victory, the Steelers were outmatched in their battle against Kansas City.

This is a far easier matchup for the Steelers, and we know that because we just saw it happen. Russell Wilson threw for 410 yards against the Bengals about a month ago. The Bengals just surrendered some deep connections from Bo Nix to Marvin Mims, so it would be a surprise if they were suddenly able to stop Wilson.

The Bengals are also weak against the run, so Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris figure to thrive whenever they touch the ball. The Steelers will be able to deploy this duo late in the game and keep the ball away from Cincinnati.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals kept pace with the Steelers for a while in the Week 13 matchup, but that changed in the second half when Pittsburgh’s defense came alive. T.J. Watt took over and disrupted several drives.

Cincinnati lost its right tackle to injury this past week, so Pittsburgh should be able to generate good heat on Burrow once again. Burrow, of course, will torch Pittsburgh’s defense on occasion because he’s been that good this season.

The Bengals’ right tackle wasn’t the only key player to go down last week, as Chase Brown exited with an injury as well. Brown was a do-it-all back for the Bengals, so he’ll sorely be missed if he can’t return to action. Backup Khalil Herbert is a quality runner, but he doesn’t come close to providing the sort of receiving threat out of the backfield that Brown was capable of being.

RECAP: Under normal circumstances, I’d like Pittsburgh’s losing streak to come to an end. The Steelers are the better team, and this is the first time they’re battling a team worse than Group B since taking on the Browns the second time. Meanwhile, the Bengals haven’t fared well against the upper echelon of the NFL. They’ve had seven games against Group A or Group B opponents, and they’re 0-7 straight up and 2-5 against the spread against them.

However, all of this will be moot if the Steelers rest their starters. Assuming the Ravens beat the Browns, the Steelers won’t have anything at stake, aside from perhaps aiming for the No. 5 seed. If the Steelers are stuck with the sixth seed, they’ll take on the Ravens again, which may not be the worst thing, knowing their history against them. However, the fifth seed allows Pittsburgh to go up against Houston.

I have no idea if the Steelers will rest their starters, making this game very difficult to handicap. I’m going to pencil in Cincinnati, but I’ll have updates if we have any clarity on this situation.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Chase Brown has yet to practice through two days. His absence wouldn’t be ideal, but it also won’t be a deal-breaker for me. Meanwhile, the Steelers have a completely clean injury report.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Bengals have one of the worst defenses against tight ends in the NFL. Pat Freiermuth had 60-plus receiving yards in the first meeting. The best number is over 34.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel.

We’re throwing in the Freiermuth over receiving yards into a same-game parlay with Jaylen Warren over 21.5 receiving yards, Ja’Marr Chase over 92.5 receiving yards, and Mike Gesicki over 29.5 receiving yards. Warren has been getting lots of targets lately. Chase should have a big game with everything on the line. And Gesicki had a big game versus the Steelers the first time. This $25 parlay pays $264.06 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Unless we see one of the greatest upsets in NFL history, the Steelers won’t be able to win the division. However, they can still get the No. 5 seed, so they may fight the Bengals hard. If so, Pittsburgh will have a good chance to cover as a home underdog.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Chase Brown is out, but that won’t affect this handicap. I still lean toward the Bengals, but I have no desire to bet this game. The sharps haven’t touched this one either. The best line is -2 -110 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.

The Steelers may sit their starters.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Bengals -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

Lots of money on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 67% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 27 of the last 36 meetings.

Bengals are 21-10 ATS against the Steelers if they lost to them previously the same season in the last 31 instances.

Steelers are 44-22 ATS in December/January home games since 2000.

Mike Tomlin is 63-36 ATS as an underdog.

Mike Tomlin is 14-2 ATS after losing by 20+. ???

Opening Line: Bengals -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Clear, 21 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 44-38 ATS through 16 weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Lions -3.5

Chargers -5.5

Colts -7.5

Seahawks -4

The public split their bets. The public is now 46-40.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Buccaneers -13

Packers -8.5

Eagles -3

Chargers -5.5

Texans +1

The public is backing some teams that could sit their starters.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: This was a tough matchup for the Buccaneers last year. They scored just 13 points versus New Orleans late last season. Things have certainly flipped, as the Buccaneers exploded for 51 points in the prior battle versus New Orleans this year.

The Saints just don’t have the manpower to deal with the Buccaneers. Things were much different when Marshon Lattimore was on the roster because he typically had his way with Mike Evans. He’s gone now, and New Orleans’ secondary has been otherwise ravaged by injury. Aidan O’Connell just threw all over New Orleans, so Mayfield figures to have another explosive performance.

The only way Mayfield doesn’t go off against the Saints is if he doesn’t have to do so. The Saints also can’t stop the run whatsoever. They just allowed Ameer Abdullah to have a career game against them, and earlier in the season, Sean Tucker went ballistic during the prior matchup. Bucky Irving has been tremendous since taking over the primary back role, and he could easily rush for nearly 200 yards in this contest, if given the chance to do so.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: If you read my Ravens-Browns write-up, you may have noticed Spencer Rattler’s name. I listed the bottom five quarterbacks since 2020 in terms of EPA. Dorian Thompson is the worst among 95 qualifiers. Rattler ranks 91st, finishing ahead of only Thompson-Robinson, Trace McSorley, Jake Luton, and Trevor Siemian.

The Buccaneers have some major problems in the secondary that will be exploited in the playoffs. They won’t be exploited this week, however. Rattler simply isn’t good enough. Todd Bowles dominates terrible quarterbacks, and his defense is great at limiting mobile signal-callers on the ground. Rattler will struggle mightily.

It would be helpful for the Saints if they could turn to a running game, but that won’t be possible. First of all, Alvin Kamara isn’t even available, and second, the Buccaneers are stellar versus ground attacks as long as Vita Vea is on the field.

RECAP: It’s time to summon Aurora Snowmo. This is a phenomenon I’ve written about a long time on this site. It has to do with teams choking in obvious must-win games at the end of the season.

Aurora Snowmo is a combination of Aurora Snow and Tony Romo. The latter was known for choking when he played for the Cowboys – at least in the early stages of the year – and Aurora Snow is, well, someone you should only Google if you’re by yourself.

The Buccaneers are in an Aurora Snowmo game. This is a must-win game for them. Everyone expects them to prevail. Yet, the Saints are going to give it their all to make sure that doesn’t happen, much like the Giants with the Colts last week.

Having said that, I can’t really advocate for any sort of bet on the Saints, given how utterly miserable Rattler happens to be. It’s more likely that Aurora Snowmo doesn’t show up in this game, and Tampa Bay wins easily.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I heard some speculation that Derek Carr and Chris Olave may try to play in this game, which would be a hilarious F-U to their rivals. Olave practiced fully on Wednesday, but Carr was DNP.

SATURDAY NOTES: So much for Derek Carr playing. He’s out, as is Alvin Kamara. Chris Olave could play, but I don’t think it makes much of a difference with how bad Spencer Rattler has been. Then again, the Buccaneers won’t have Jamel Dean or Antoine Winfield.

PLAYER PROPS: Mike Evans has incentives tied to this game. Baker Mayfield does as well, so Mayfield will throw to Evans a ton. The line is inflated, but it’s inflated for a reason. The best number is over 99.5 receiving yards -120 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Chris Olave will not return, so that obviously makes things easier for the Buccaneers. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is Buccaneers -14.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

Aurora Snowmo game No. 1.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -13.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -11.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Is anyone betting New Orleans?

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 85% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 18 of the last 27 meetings.

Road Team is 141-100 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 44-74 ATS at home in the previous 118 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -14.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 71 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

Here’s something someone said about my NFL Power Rankings:

Why do Vikings fans always do this? They always believe that their team is better than they really are. Maybe it’s because they have nothing better to do in that frozen hellscape, but who knows?

Here’s an exchange I had with this weirdo Jesse, who often posts stupid things on Twitter:

I love how this Jesse person thinks that someone can’t run a company and also post random things on Twitter. That’s some typical first-order thinking from morons who think like Jesse does.

Last one: I posted a link to one of my shirts, and some guy didn’t like it:

I’m willing to bet that Adam does nothing.

RESTED STARTERS: The Bills have clinched the No. 2 seed, so they will be resting their starters. Mitchell Trubisky will start along with the other backups, so there will not be a matchup breakdown of the game.

RECAP: You may have noticed that I have the Patriots projected to be -4.5 in the spread section of this pick capsule. If you’re wondering if I’m on drugs, no, I am not.

The Bills have clinched the No. 2 seed, so it would be shocking if they were to play their starters. With Trubisky throwing to a bunch of scrubs, I’d have the Bills as a Group F team, so Group F at Group D would warrant a line of above -4.

Despite this, we’re getting points with the Patriots, which seems absurd. The Bills have no interest in winning this game. Now, you might wonder if the Patriots would want to prevail because that would mean losing control of the No. 1 draft pick. However, we’ve seen teams disregard the importance of this, most recently the Giants with their win over the Colts. And it’s not like the Patriots even need a quarterback. I think a win means more to them than the top selection.

This is a big play on the Patriots, assuming Drake Maye plays. New England is a Group F team with Jacoby Brissett, so we wouldn’t have the same line value if Brissett were to be announced as the starter.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve heard some people speculate that the Patriots could rest Drake Maye to avoid further injury with him. It would also give the Patriots a better chance of losing to ensure the top pick. We’ve seen no hints of that, as Maye was limited in practice Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: Drake Maye is questionable. He was limited all week with a hand injury. Something is rubbing me the wrong way with that, so I’m going to remove my projected wager. Buffalo’s backups could easily win this game, especially if Maye is sidelined or hurt.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing here. The Bills are sitting their starters, and the Patriots have injuries, including one to Drake Maye.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Drake Maye is active. However, there’s speculation that Joe Milton will see some action, so stay away from this one. The sharps haven’t touched this game either. The best line is +3.5 -115 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

The Bills are resting their starters.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: N/A (EPA in rested starter games will not be calculated).

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Do people not know about the Bills resting their starters?

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 73% (61,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Bills have won 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Patriots are 44-28 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.

Patriots are 15-6 ATS in the final week of the season since 2001.

Opening Line: Bills -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 30 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

Contest Announcement time!

Our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

Also, our Survivor Contest has returned as well. It’s free to enter, and you can win $350!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Minnesota fans will yell at me for this, but the effort wasn’t there for Green Bay last week. It looked like the Packers were going through the motions for most of the afternoon. Josh Jacobs lost a fumble, the team committed many unforced penalties, and “No Cookie” Jordan Love constantly threw off his back foot.

Provided Jacobs plays this week – more on that in a bit – the Packers should be able to run all over the Chicago. The Bears have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so Jacobs will be able to make amends for last week’s fumble.

Jacobs’ great running will put the Packers in constant short-yardage situations. Love will take advantage of this by spreading the ball around. Tucker Kraft has the best matchup of all of his weapons.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears won’t have as much success running the ball. D’Andre Swift had a great start to the year, but only because he found himself in so many favorable matchups. It’s been tough sledding for Swift lately, as he’s dealt with so many stalwart run defenses of late.

The Packers qualify as a team that has an excellent run defense. Swift’s inability to move the chains will only make things more difficult for Caleb Williams, who looks completely lost right now.

The Bears would have a chance to turn things around if they had a viable head coach and an offensive coordinator, but they lack both of those because they promoted their interim offensive coordinator to interim head coach, spreading things too thin for him.

RECAP: It’s unclear if the Packers will play their starters. They’ve clinched playoff berth, but they’re currently the No. 7 seed. They may want to play hard to ensure that they move up to the No. 6 seed so they can avoid the Eagles in the first round. Then again, that would require the Redskins losing to the Cowboys.

If the Packers play their starters, they’ll dismantle the Bears. Chicago has an interim head coach and no offensive coordinator, which would explain why the team has scored 13, 1, 17, and 3 points ever since firing Matt Eberflus. The interim head coach is completely overwhelmed and spread too thin to function correctly.

However, if Green Bay decides to sit its starters, the Bears will be the obvious play. Hopefully we get some clear updates soon.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Packers were bet up to -10 by someone who has no concerns about them sitting their starters in the second half. I wouldn’t be so confident. Then again, I’m the goof who played the Lions in the first half instead of the full game last week.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears will once again be down three offensive linemen, so it’s hard to imagine them producing anything offensively. I’m going to be betting the Packers despite the possibility that they bench their starters at some point.

PLAYER PROPS: This is tough for props because the Packers could sit their starters in the second half if the Redskins are way ahead.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Romeo Doubs is out, but the Packers will get Christian Watson back. The sharps haven’t bet this game. The best line is -10 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -9.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Packers -12.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Lots of money on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 81% (75,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 20 of the last 22 meetings.

Bears are 22-44 ATS in December road games the previous 66 instances.

Packers are 42-24 ATS in December/January home games since 2000.

Packers are 67-44 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 58-40 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -9.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 17 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

Contest Announcement time!

Our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It was predictable that Indianapolis’ receivers would be productive with Joe Flacco replacing Anthony Richardson. The athletic quarterback missed last week’s game with back spasms, so Flacco stepped in and led the Colts to a 33-point performance. Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce both had great performances, as they were unlocked with Richardson sidelined.

Back spasms are no joke, so it’s unclear if Richardson will be able to play. Trust me, I’ve dealt with back spasms since my mid-20s, and it’s brutal. Granted, I’m not the athlete Richardson is – though I would strongly argue that it’s fairly close – so Richardson could return this week. By Richardson returning, the Colts would trade receiver production with an enhanced running game.

So, what’s better for this matchup? It’s actually a trick question because it doesn’t matter. The Jaguars have an atrocious defense and can’t stop anything. They’re woeful versus the run and the pass, so the Colts should be able to move the chains against them no matter what.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Thirty-three points should have been enough for the Colts, but it wasn’t. The Giants scored 45 points against them in one of the most embarrassing performances of all time. And that is not hyperbole. According to EPA, Drew Lock had the sixth-best performance of any quarterback dating back to 1999, trailing only 2007 Tom Brady, 2012 Peyton Manning, and some others. That’s right – Indianapolis was so bad that it allowed Lock to play at a Hall of Fame level.

Of course, it wasn’t just Lock. The Colts were guilty of so many missed tackles, including two on Malik Nabers during a long touchdown. This wasn’t a surprise because Indianapolis has the most missed tackles in the NFL. However, we recently saw the Colts clamp down on the Titans, limiting them to seven points before garbage time, so the unit can play well.

The Jaguars don’t have much of an offense anyway. Mac Jones has been an interception machine in the red zone, and he only has one weapon at his disposal. The Jaguars likely won’t be able to run the ball either because Indianapolis ranks sixth against ground attacks.

RECAP: The Colts completely embarrassed themselves last week. All they had to do was beat the Giants and Jaguars and hope for Denver to slip up to secure a playoff spot, but they couldn’t even do the former. The Giants took it to the Colts, scoring 45 points.

The Colts are eliminated, so some might believe that they don’t have anything to play for. Perhaps that’s correct, but I don’t believe that to be true. I think they’ll be playing for pride after such a humiliating showing. There is precedent for this, as the Cardinals showed up and went all out versus the Rams last Saturday night after being eliminated. Losing to the Panthers was embarrassing for them, so they gave full effort. I believe we’ll see the same thing with the Colts this week.

If I’m right, the Colts should be a top play. We’re getting the much better team – Group C versus Group F – with a motivational edge at a reduced spread. Indianapolis checks all the boxes at -5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Anthony Richardson was DNP on Wednesday, but it’s too early to make a determination about his status. By the way, I had a nice debate with Evan about this game on the After Dark Show if you want to listen and hit the subscribe button!

SATURDAY NOTES: Just like last week, the Colts line has dropped a point going from Anthony Richardson to Joe Flacco. I guess the sportsbooks didn’t see my breakdown of quarterbacks since 2020 where Richardson ranks 89th out of 95 qualifiers. I’d rather have Joe Flacco on the field as a Colts backer, and yet we’re getting a better number!

PLAYER PROPS: Michael Pittman Jr. seems easy once again. The prop is priced as if Anthony Richardson is the quarterback. The best number is over 51.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

Like last week, I’m going to ladder this at 70+ and 90+. Pittman 70+ is +195 at Draftings, and Pittman 90+ is +400 at DraftKings.

LOCKED IN: I’m locking in the Colts -3 -113 at Bookmaker. The sharps have bet this down too far. I don’t know how long the rare -3s will stick around, but I’m going to bet it now. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Jaguars won’t have Josh Allen, which is great news. I love the Colts, but the sharps are on the other side. I don’t know why the sharps have been betting the Jaguars, but the sharps have been awful this year. We locked this in already, but the best current line is -3.5 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

The Colts will be looking to play for pride.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Colts -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 59% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Home Team has won 13 of the last 14 meetings.

Opening Line: Colts -5.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: Benching Kirk Cousins turned out to be the correct decision – except, it occurred way too late. The move should have been made several weeks prior when it was clear that Cousins had regressed from his Achilles injury. Michael Penix Jr. was excellent in the Sunday night affair despite making his first road start against a defensive-minded head coach.

Penix has his easiest matchup yet. The Panthers have a woeful defense that can’t stop anything. If Jaycee Horn can’t return from injury – he was sidelined versus the Buccaneers – then Carolina doesn’t have a prayer at stopping Drake London. Kyle Pitts also has a great matchup, though it’s unclear if the Panthers will get anything out of him. Pitts redeemed himself last week for dropping a pass that resulted in Penix’s first interception, but he could revert to slacking off.

Of course, Penix may not need to do much because the Panthers are so terrible against the run. The Falcons will be able to establish Bijan Robinson, just as the Buccaneers did last week with Bucky Irving.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: This would have been a great spot for Bryce Young and the rest of the Panthers offense prior to Week 12. That’s when Atlanta’s bye week transpired. Since the bye week, the Falcons are a staggering fourth in defensive EPA, despite battling the Vikings, Chargers, and Redskins in three of their five games.

The key to Atlanta’s improved defensive play has been an enhanced pass rush. The Falcons couldn’t get to the quarterback at all prior to their bye, but that has completely changed since Week 12. They now generate lots of heat on opposing quarterbacks, so it’ll help Young that he’s well protected – provided that he has a healthy offensive line in front of him. Taylor Moton missed last week’s game, so it’ll be helpful for Carolina to have him back this week.

The Falcons still have some issues in their secondary. The Young-to-Adam Thielen connection should work again, though Young will likely have to operate in long-yardage situations because won’t get much help from his running game with Chuba Hubbard sidelined.

RECAP: This is our second Aurora Snowmo game of the week. The Falcons need to win. Everyone expects them to beat the Panthers. This puts them in a position to choke.

I imagine Atlanta watched last week’s Carolina game and saw how awful the Panthers were. Carolina was in a rough spot, as the team was dealing with the flu and some significant injuries. Plus, the Buccaneers were motivated to bounce back from their defeat at Dallas.

We obviously haven’t seen any injury reports as of Tuesday afternoon, but I can only assume the Panthers will be healthier this week. They also won’t be dealing with the flu. They’ve shown that they can keep games close if the opposition doesn’t take them seriously, and I don’t think Atlanta will.

The Panthers look good at +8. This spread is inflated because the Falcons need to win, but as we know, teams that need to win often disappoint.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A number of key Panthers missed Wednesday’s practice – namely Jaycee Horn, Robert Hunt, and Josey Jewell – but it’s early enough for them to return for this game. I keep getting the feeling that the Panthers are going to win this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’d love to bet the Panthers to cover this high number because of the Aurora Snowmo phenomenon, but they have so many key injuries. Jaycee Horn and Josey Jewell are definitely out, while a couple of great offensive linemen – Taylor Moton, Robert Hunt – didn’t practice much this week.

PLAYER PROPS: Everyone’s betting Bijan Robinson here, but I’d rather go with Drake London. Young quarterbacks lock in on No. 1 receivers, and Jaycee Horn won’t be around to bother London. The best number is over 69.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are major injuries for both teams, as Darnell Mooney and Robert Hunt were ruled out for the Falcons and Panthers, respectively. The sharps are on the Panthers. The best line is +8 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

Aurora Snowmo Game No. 2.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Falcons -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Lots of money on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 63% (84,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .Falcons

History: Falcons have won 14 of the last 21 meetings.

Opening Line: Falcons -7.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Jayden Daniels was incredible Sunday night. He ran circles around Atlanta’s defense, willing his team to victory in overtime.

I don’t know if we’ll get the same effort from Daniels in this game. A win would allow the Redskins to have the No. 6 seed and avoid the Eagles in the opening round of the playoffs, but I don’t quite see Daniels going all out just for seeding. Besides the Cowboys have excellent edge players who can contain Daniels in the pocket.

The Redskins might have success keeping the chains moving on the ground. Brian Robinson Jr. has a nice matchup, with the Cowboys ranking 24th in run defense. Robinson, however, isn’t quite being used enough, as Chris Rodriguez is siphoning way too many touches for some reason.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys had a horrific offensive showing last week. They scored a touchdown on their second drive following a pick-six, but didn’t put any points on the scoreboard after that. This wasn’t much of a surprise because CeeDee Lamb isn’t available anymore.

It’s generally a great idea to fade backup quarterbacks against top-12 defenses. The Redskins rank ninth in defensive EPA. They’re 12th in pressure rate, so they’ll be able to put heat on Cooper Rush, who could be forced into some turnovers again. This will leave Jerry Jones wondering why his inept coach failed to give Trey Lance a shot.

The only hope the Cowboys have of generating offense is establishing Rico Dowdle. Despite last week’s 41-7 loss, Dowdle somehow rushed for 100-plus yards against the Eagles. Dowdle will have an opportunity to match that total against Washington’s run-funnel defense.

RECAP: It’s unclear if the Redskins will use their starters. They’ve clinched playoff berth, but if they lose this game, they’ll risk falling to the No. 7 seed. That would mean battling the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs.

It would make sense for the Redskins to take this game seriously, but there’s a chance they won’t. They just beat the Eagles, and Jalen Hurts is concussed, so they may believe that being stuck with the No. 7 seed isn’t so bad.

I’ll be on the Redskins if they play their starters, and I’ll be on Dallas if the opposite is true. Hopefully we get an update soon.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t know if this is an indication that the Redskins will sit their starters, but they had 12 DNPs in practice on Wednesday. Be careful if you plan on betting them.

SATURDAY NOTES: Trey Lance will finally get significant reps this week. While this is the correct decision, it’s also one that works against the Cowboys. The Redskins should be able to win this easily. I’m going to put three units on Washington.

PLAYER PROPS: I don’t see anything I like in this game. How hard will the Redskins go? What will Dallas’ offense look like with Trey Lance?

LOCKED IN: This line has risen to -7 in many sportsbooks, but you can still get -6.5 -110 at FanDuel. I’m going to lock this in now before it disappears. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps hammered the Redskins earlier in the week. Most of the lines are now -7, but you can still get -6.5 -110 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Redskins -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

Tons of action on the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Washington: 73% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Cowboys have won 13 of the previous 17 meetings.

Cowboys are 24-16 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -4.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: Here’s a video of a smoking-hot girl playing Resident Evil. I kid you not:

She tends to get frazzled while under pressure, but I enjoyed this video and the others she has on her channel.

RESTED STARTERS: The Texans have clinched playoff berth and are locked into the No. 4 seed. It’s unlikely that we’ll see the starters. If they play, it might only be for a couple of drives or just the first quarter, so I will not be doing a matchup analysis for this game.

RECAP: DeMeco Ryans announced that he would be using his starters in this game. I don’t know if I believe him. No matter what the Texans do, they’re stuck with the No. 4 seed. Houston is better off resting and regrouping from the blowout loss on Christmas.

What we could see is the Texans playing their starters for a few drives, or at least until they score a touchdown offensively and get a stop on defense. Playing the starters for the entire game is asinine, but using them for a few drives makes sense.

Despite the fact that we don’t know if Ryans will play his starters the entire game, this spread plummeted down from -3.5 to pick ’em. As a result, we’re getting tremendous line value. It’s odd to say that about the Titans, but it’s true. There’s no way Davis Mills, one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, should be a pick’ em on the road, even against Tennessee. Also, I’m aware of a professional betting syndicate that has taken out a huge bet on the Titans.

Unless we get news that the Texans will be playing their starters the entire way, I’ll be on the Titans for a medium-sized wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Titans announced that they plan on playing both quarterbacks in this game. I’ve decided that I no longer want to bet Tennessee.

SATURDAY NOTES: I believe we’ll see the Texans for a little bit, but we could see them for a lot, given how bad they’ve been playing. If you like the Texans, know this, and also look at how bad their injury report is. I won’t be betting this game.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing yet. It’s unclear how long the Texans will play their starters. I think I’d like Tony Pollard over rushing yards, but we don’t even know if he’s playing yet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Texans are sitting Will Anderson, for what it’s worth. We still don’t know how long their starters will play. The sharps don’t believe it’ll be for very long because they’re on Tennessee. The best line is -2 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: N/A.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Tons of action on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 78% (65,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Titans have won 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Texans are 57-44 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (9-11 ATS as favorites).

Opening Line: Titans -4.5.

Opening Total: 36.5.

Weather: Rain, 35 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

RESTED STARTERS: The Eagles are expected to rest their starters in this game because they are locked into the No. 2 seed no matter what happens in the Lions-Vikings game. There’s some speculation that they will try to give Saquon Barkley the all-time single-season rushing record, but that doesn’t seem likely to happen.

RECAP: This game means nothing to the Eagles, who will be stuck with the No. 2 seed. However, there is an obvious stat implication that must be addressed. That would obviously be Barkley, who will break Eric Dickerson’s all-time single-season rushing yards record if he rushes for 101 yards.

I don’t think Barkley goes for it. If Barkley had 20 or 30 rushing yards to get there, I think he’d give it a shot. Even 50 might warrant some playing time. However, there’s no guarantee that Barkley will get 101 rushing yards if he plays the entire game. The Giants, trying their best to avoid humiliation, will do everything in their power to make sure Barkley doesn’t get the record. They’ll stack the box and they’ll go after Barkley’s knees. This could end in disaster.

If I’m right, the Giants are the play at +3.5. The Eagles shouldn’t be favored by this many points with Tanner McKee throwing to practice squad players. Then again, the Giants are a dreadful team, so I don’t want to back them either, especially when considering that they’re a bad team coming off a win.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Eagles have made it official and announced that Saquon Barkley will not be going for the record, which is the correct decision. By the way, Jalen Hurts is still in concussion protocol, which is very worrying.

SATURDAY NOTES: If you plan on betting the Giants as a result of the Eagles sitting their starters, note that the Giants will be missing their center and fill-in right tackle. It may not matter, but the Giants have some significant injuries.

PLAYER PROPS: Betting Saquon Barkley would have been fun. Oh well. I’m passing on the props here because the Eagles will sit their starters, and I don’t know how the Giants will perform against Philadelphia’s backups.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money coming in on the Giants at +3. The best line is +3 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: N/A.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

All of the money on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 77% (69,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Eagles have won 28 the last 34 meetings.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Slight chance of snow, 32 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.