NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2023 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2023): 6-8-1 (-$2,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2023): 5-10-1 (-$1,295)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2023): 5-9 (-$935)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2023): 7-6 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2023): 5-9 ($0)
2023 NFL Picks: 80-89-5 (-$8,905)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Nov. 20, 1:00 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

Week 11 Analysis: I’m glad we didn’t have a losing week, though the wins were buoyed by the props, most of which hit. The sides were slightly worse than 50-50, which was disappointing, given that I identified that I had done better with the larger spreads earlier in the year. I made som mistakes, so I’ll talk about them. I’ll once again break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Giants, 3 units (win): Hindsight is 50/50, but I should have bet more. I was just scared off by Tommy DeVito. Lesson learned.

Jaguars, 4 units (win): Another easy win, as the Jaguars became the latest good team to rebound off an embarrassing loss.

Bears, 3 units (win): Why did I drop this from five to three units? I have no idea.

Dolphins, 3 units (loss): The Dolphins outgained the Raiders, 422-296, and averaged 1.2 more yards per play. They didn’t cover because they repeatedly shot themselves in the foot with multiple lost fumbles and overall incompetence once they crossed into field goal range.

Panthers, 3 units (loss): What a dumb pick this was. I can’t believe I tried to talk myself out of the Panthers not being one of the worst teams in the NFL. Derp.

49ers, 3 units (loss): We lost this one by a f**king half point. I thought this wasn’t supposed to happen if you bet large spreads!? The back door killed us. By the way, the 49ers outgained the Buccaneers, 420-287, and averaged almost three more yards per play.

Jets, 5 units (loss): How did this team beat the Eagles and almost upset the Chiefs? WTF is happening here with these five-unit picks always failing?

If you haven’t visited the site in a while, you may have noticed the new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it at the top. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

DETROIT OFFENSE: This was a one-sided affair when these teams met on an earlier Thursday night. One of the catalysts for the blowout was that David Montgomery exploded for 121 rushing yards and two touchdowns. He was amazing, and yet the Packers’ poor run defense didn’t even have to deal with Jahmyr Gibbs, who was sidelined for that contest.

The Packers have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so they’ll have their hands full with Montgomery and Gibbs. This will open up favorable situations for Jared Goff, who probably doesn’t really need them anyway because his elite offensive line shields him so well.

Still, the Lions will have some great matchups to exploit in the passing game. The Packers struggle versus tight ends, so Sam LaPorta figures to have a big performance. The Packers also figure to be worse versus receivers than usual because they are down their top two cornerbacks, as Jaire Alexander is injured, while Rasul Douglas was traded a few weeks ago.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers have been miserable on this side of the ball for most of the year. That changed last week, as “No Cookie” Jordan Love finally put together a decent outing. He successfully engaged the Chargers in a shootout. Perhaps Aaron Rodgers was wrong about Love having no cookies.

Then again, maybe that was just the nature of the matchup, as the Chargers defense was shorthanded without Joey Bosa. The Chargers will be much worse versus the pass without Bosa, so it’s not a surprise that Love was so great last week. Love also has a great matchup against the Lions, who have been miserable versus the pass recently. Perhaps containing the Chargers a couple of weeks ago was too much to ask, but Justin Fields did whatever he wanted aerially as well.

There’s a chance, however, that the Lions will be able to restrict the Green Bay offense. This is because Aaron Jones is likely out for this game, so the Packers will get absolutely nothing out of their running attack with A.J. Dillon rushing against one of the top ground defenses in the NFL.

RECAP: If this game were on a Sunday, I could perhaps convince myself to back Green Bay. This is a spread where we’re not getting any key numbers with the Lions, and given how bad Detroit’s pass defense has been, there would be a great opportunity for a back-door cover.

However, this is a Thanksgiving game, which means that the Packers won’t have a full week of practice to prepare for it. That’s huge, as large favorites have had a colossal advantage on short weeks because inferior squads don’t have enough preparation time to compete with superior opponents. It’s fairly obvious that the Lions are better than the Packers, as they had this same advantage when these teams met in the earlier Thursday night affair back in Week 4. I’ll be betting Detroit accordingly.

Our Week 12 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Packers are banged up, moving the line to Detroit -8. I’m worried this spread will continue to be steamed up on Thursday morning, so I’ll lock this in now. The best line is -8 -110 at either PointsBet or BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROPS: I like two props in this game. I’m going over David Montgomery rushing yards and over Jayden Reed receiving yards. Montgomery has gone over 67.5 yards in his previous two games despite battling tough run defenses. He has a much easier matchup in this game. Meanwhile, Reed will see an increased target share with Aaron Jones and Dontayvion Wicks out. Plus, the Lions have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing slot receivers. The best line for both bets is on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was right to lock this in Wednesday night, with this line moving to -8.5 at most sportsbooks. There’s still -8 -112 at Bookmaker. The sharps haven’t taken a stance on this game.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -7.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Decent lean on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 76% (592,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Lions have won the last 4 meetings.

Packers are 62-39 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Lions are 7-10 ATS as a Thanksgiving host since 2002.

Opening Line: Lions -7.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

DALLAS OFFENSE: This seems like such a lopsided matchup. Of course, one can just look at the disparity between these teams’ records to determine that, but I’d say the Panthers and Cowboys are closer in overall talent than the Redskins and Cowboys.

The main problem for Washington is its pass defense. The Redskins have surrendered the most deep completions this year, and now they have to take on Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and an emerging Brandin Cooks. On top of that, the Redskins no longer have their two best edge rushers. Perhaps Chase Young and Montez Sweat could have saved the secondary a bit by pressuring Prescott, but that’s no longer a possibility. The Redskins were just torched by Tommy DeVito, so what shot do they have against Dallas?

The Redskins will at least be able to shut down the run, as they still rank highly in that regard. However, that’s not going to be anything new for the Cowboys, who have struggled to rush the ball all year.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins have a major issue on this side of the ball as well. That would be their pass protection. Sam Howell has taken so many sacks this year, it’s remarkable that he hasn’t missed any time. The Cowboys have a great edge rush that will create havoc for Howell in the backfield.

One of two things will happen. One, Howell will continue to take more sacks and put his team in unfavorable situations. Two, he’ll hurry some releases and either dink-and-dunk his way down the field, or panic and throw some interceptions. Maybe DaRon Bland will get his fifth pick-six of the season.

Don’t expect much out of the Redskins’ running game either. Dallas has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards to running backs this year, and Brian Robinson won’t have much of an opportunity if his team is trailing by a wide margin.

RECAP: What I wrote in the Lions-Packers recap applies to this game. The Redskins won’t have nearly enough time to prepare for the Cowboys on such a short week. They need all the preparation they can get to take on a vastly superior foe, but they won’t have that luxury heading into this contest.

With that in mind, I’ll be betting several units on the Cowboys. Dallas is a front-running team that typically destroys weak competition, and I would describe the Redskins as such. Washington can’t block or stop the pass, so this seems like a very lopsided affair. I would argue that this spread is even short of what it should be. My personal line is -14, while EPA says it should be -12.5. Either way, -11 is too low.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is another favorite being steamed up. I don’t see this spread heading past -14 though.

PLAYER PROPS: Brandin Cooks over 36.5 receiving yards is appealing. He’s gone over that number in three of his previous four games, and he’s battling the Redskins, who allow huge plays to receivers. The best vig is -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Let’s hope the Cowboys try harder than the Lions. The sharps may not think they will because they bet the Redskins at +13.5. The best line is Cowboys -13 -105 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -14.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -9.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -12.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Washington: 54% (187,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

History: Cowboys have won 10 of the previous 14 meetings.

The underdog is 117-97 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Ron Rivera is 8-3 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.

Cowboys are 9-12 ATS as a Thanksgiving host since 2001.

Opening Line: Cowboys -9.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year, and they are now 19-20 ATS.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Dolphins -13.5

Chargers -3

Cardinals +5.5

49ers -13.5

The public lost three of its top four bets, which was not good timing with Black Friday coming up.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Bears +3.5

Dolphins +2.5

Raiders +9.5

49ers -6.5

Not one, not two, but three underdogs! What is this world coming to!?

SEATTLE OFFENSE: We have to begin with the Seahawks offense because of the quarterback situation. Geno Smith injured his elbow/triceps area against the Rams and missed some action. He was able to return to the field on the final drive, but it’s not clear if he’ll be able to play in this game. Pete Carroll told the media that Smith would be able to suit up, but he’s often overly optimistic about injuries.

As far as I’m concerned, there are two possibilities. One, Smith will play and will be less effective than usual against San Francisco’s ferocious defense. Two, Drew Lock will get the start against San Francisco’s ferocious defense. Either way, this won’t end well for the Seahawks.

I’m sure an injured Smith or Lock would love to lean on the running game. There are two problems with that. First, Kenneth Walker is likely out for this contest, so Zach Charbonnet will have to do all the work. Two, the 49ers thrive versus ground attacks. Only three teams have surrendered fewer rushing yards to running backs this year.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The Seahawks are much weaker to running backs than the 49ers are. They’re about in the middle of the pack in terms of stopping the run, but their big issue comes against receiving backs. Seattle has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs this year, which seems to be a major problem when Christian McCaffrey is lining up on the other side.

Another liability the 49ers will be able to exploit is Seattle’s inability to stop tight ends. The Seahawks rank ninth in yardage allowed to tight ends this year. Again, this is another problem with George Kittle being on the opposing team.

It’s not all bad for the Seahawks, who cover outside receivers well. They’ll be able to slow down Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel a bit, but they won’t be able to rattle Brock Purdy in the pocket with Trent Williams shielding his blind side.

RECAP: I love the 49ers. In fact, I’m going to lock them in now because there’s a chance that Smith won’t play. If Smith is ruled out, this spread will skyrocket through seven and approach 10. At the moment, we’re at least getting one key number with the 49ers, which is more than I expected in such a lopsided affair.

This is another situation in which the superior team has a gargantuan edge on a short week. The Seahawks need as much preparation time as possible to contend with the 49ers, but they won’t have that because this game is on Thursday night.

And yes, the 49ers are much better than the Seahawks. They destroyed Seattle thrice last year. Also, the Seahawks have been incredibly underwhelming lately. They lost to the Rams even though Matthew Stafford was clearly not 100 percent because of his thumb. They failed to beat up on the horrible Redskins after an embarrassing loss. They were trashed by the Ravens. They barely squeaked by the Phillip Walker-led Browns at home. They would have beaten Arizona by only seven if it weren’t for a fake punt by the Cardinals. This Seattle team is incredibly overrated, and we even have the metrics to back us up, as Seattle is ranked a shockingly low 24th in net adjusted EPA.

There is some risk this will drop to -6 if Smith gets the nod, but I can’t see it going much lower. And I don’t even care if Smith starts because he’s likely going to be operating at less than 100 percent because of his elbow injury.

The best line available is -6.5 -110 at Caesars. This is a five-unit wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m glad I locked this in at -6.5 because the line went to -7.5 before falling back down to -7.

PLAYER PROPS: George Kittle’s over 50.5 receiving yards looks great. Kittle has eclipsed that total in his previous four games. He’ll be going up against a Seattle defense that has allowed the seventh-most receiving yardage to tight ends this year. The best vig is -115 at PointsBet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The best line still available -7 -105 at PointsBet, so I’m glad to have locked in the -6.5. There’s sharp action on both sides of this game.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -5.

Computer Model: 49ers -10.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

A no-brainer.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 84% (181,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Seahawks have won 15 of the last 20 meetings.

Brock Purdy is 14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS.

Seahawks are 20-7 ATS as home underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: 49ers -4.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Clear, 44 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. This is last week’s from renowned bozo John Cappricotti, who famously said that you can bet any team at any line because the spread doesn’t matter:

I got another message from John Cappricotti, who asked me to not quit my day job:

Unsurprisingly, John Capricotti failed to think this one through.

At any rate, it’s time for the Boot-licker of the Week Award! It goes to someone named IchBinDeutsch:

Imagine being such a boot-licker that you don’t know that you’re licking the boot when you say stuff like, “I was home where I belong,” and “I wonder if the bullet tasted good.”

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It never seemed like the Jets would make the change, but it has finally happened. Zach Wilson has been benched, as Tim Boyle will replace him. I’d normally applaud this decision, but it’s almost certain that Boyle is worse than Wilson. Take a look at Boyle’s stats in college where he played for Connecticut and 1-AA Eastern Kentucky: 55.5 completion percentage, 5.6 YPA, 12 touchdowns, 26 interceptions. That’s right – he had more than double the number of picks compared to touchdowns playing for crappy Connecticut and a 1-AA team!

How is Boyle even in the NFL? I mean, really. He has to be some rich person’s kid or something. And you can’t even say that this is an easy matchup for him. Believe it or not, Miami’s defense has been playing better lately. They surrendered seven points to the Raiders if the two early fumbles are excluded, and prior to that, they allowed only 14 offensive points to the Chiefs. Miami has gotten healthier with Jalen Ramsey and others now available.

If the Jets do anything offensively, it’ll be via Breece Hall. The Dolphins are in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the run, and Hall is an explosive player who can go the distance whenever he touches the ball.

MIAMI OFFENSE: If the Jets win this game, it’ll have to be done defensively. This can be done, even against the Dolphins and all of their weapons. If they were capable of embarrassing Josh Allen (the first time), Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert, they can certainly thrive against Tua Tagovailoa.

The Dolphins rely on their two terrific receivers to do most of the damage, but they will have to alter their strategy in this game because the Jets have elite cornerbacks who can slow them down. Perhaps stopping Tyreek Hill is too much to ask, but Hill definitely won’t have anything resembling his best game.

The Jets, however, have a liability on this side of the ball, and that would be their run defense. It doesn’t sound like De’Von Achane will be available, but Raheem Mostert is capable of a big performance.

RECAP: The Jets needed to bench Wilson, but not in favor of Boyle. There’s no legitimate reason why Boyle is in the NFL. And I don’t like his chances against a Miami defense that has improved markedly in recent weeks.

I’ve been backing the Jets for weeks, but I will not be doing so this time. I would consider it if Wilson or even Trevor Siemian were the quarterback, but not Boyle. He is not a viable NFL quarterback by any stretch of the imagine, so I will be betting Miami.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A bit of sharp money has come in on the Jets, but nothing crazy. I don’t know why the pros would like the Jets.

PLAYER PROPS: Raheem Mostert’s rushing prop looks great. The Jets have a run-funnel defense, and Mostert has eclipsed 62.5 yards in his previous two games. The best vig is -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m posting this a bit earlier than usual because my daughter might wake up from her nap. However, the inactives lists have been released, and that’s what matters. The Jets, who were already a mess, won’t have Mekhi Becton or Allen Lazard. Becton being out will be detremental for Tim Boyle in his first start with New York. However, the sharps are on the Jets for some reason. I still like the Dolphins quite a bit. The best line is -9.5 -109 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -6.

Computer Model: Dolphins -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Easy money to fade the Jets.

Percentage of money on Miami: 76% (298,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Dolphins have won 9 of the last 11 meetings.

Opening Line: Dolphins -4.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 47 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: C.J. Stroud has been carrying the Texans, but for the first time all year, he did not do so last week. Stroud had an amazing first half against the Cardinals, but took a big hit and wasn’t quite the same after that. It was almost like he was playing concussed, but no NFL team would allow that to happen, right?

Stroud should be perfectly fine for this game. If so, he has a great matchup at his disposal. The Jaguars have been weak to the pass this year, especially when it comes to stopping outside receivers. This will be a big problem against Tank Dell and Nico Collins. Dell has been on fire lately, so no one should be surprised to see a big performance out of him.

The Jaguars can at least stop the run very well, as only three teams have allowed fewer rushing yards than them. Devin Singletary has been shockingly exceptional recently, but that won’t be the case this week.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Unlike the Jaguars, the Texans can’t stop the run very well. They aren’t horrible versus ground attacks, but they can be beaten in that regard. Travis Etienne figures to have a strong performance.

Etienne’s great running will allow Trevor Lawrence to have easier passing opportunities. This will be crucial against a Houston front that is ranked in the top 10 of pressure rate this season. Lawrence doesn’t have the best pass protection, so he’ll need to operate in short-yardage situations to sustain drives.

The Texans can be beaten in the secondary, so Lawrence will have a big game if he’s given favorable down-and-distance situations. Houston is especially poor to slot receivers, and this is an area Jacksonville can exploit with Christian Kirk.

RECAP: Anyone pointing to Houston’s Week 3 win over the Jaguars as their justification for picking the Texans in this rematch needs to understand that Jacksonville didn’t try at all in that meeting. The Jaguars were coming off an emotional loss to the Chiefs the prior week and were focused on their two-week London trip. They simply didn’t take the Texans seriously.

The stakes are much higher now, as this game is for effective control of the division. While the Jaguars haven’t been able to beat the elite teams yet, they’ve had success in must-win games versus teams on their level. For example, they defeated the Titans in a play-in game last year, then went on to beat the Chargers in the opening round of the playoffs. They can knock off the Texans, who haven’t been in this position yet. Also, Houston has had some sketchy victories lately. Yes, they’ve won all of their games since losing to the Panthers, but they’ve beaten the likes of the Buccaneers and Cardinals in close affairs at home. Jacksonville is better than those two teams.

I don’t plan on betting this game because it could really go either way with this spread, but taking the Jaguars as a very small favorite makes sense in this spot.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Jaguars have moved from -1 to -1.5, which is a positive if you like them. I still have no feel for this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams are missing a couple of starters. The Jaguars won’t have Zay Jones and Tyson Campbell, while the Texans will be without Jimmie Ward and Noah Brown. The Texans continue to be a public dog. I like the Jaguars, but not enough to bet them.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m going to be betting the Christian Kirk over receiving props. First of all, Zay Jones may not play because he’s barely practiced this week. Second, the Texans have surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points to slot receivers this year. The best number is over 60.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is betting the Texans, but there’s a bit of sharp action on Houston as well. I’m still on the Jaguars. The best line is -1.5 -108 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -1.

Computer Model: Texans -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Public and sharp action on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 75% (140,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Texans have won 21 of the last 26 meetings.

Opening Line: Jaguars -1.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The last time we saw the Colts, they finally gave Jonathan Taylor all the carries. Taylor and Zack Moss were splitting touches in frustrating fashion, but the coaching staff finally decided that Taylor was in shape to handle a full workload. The result was a victory over the Patriots in Germany.

Taylor will have issues running the ball on the Buccaneers, who have a pass-funnel defense. Still, Taylor is talented enough for the Buccaneers to devote extra attention to him, which should make passing even easier for Gardner Minshew.

Minshew shouldn’t have any issues throwing all over Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have one of the worst aerial defenses in the NFL. They’re fifth-worst at defending outside receivers, and they’re even worse versus slot receivers, ranking 31st in that regard. Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs should have huge performances.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: While the Buccaneers have a huge liability against the pass, the Colts happen to be quite weak to the run. They’ve allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to running backs this year, as this weakness was quite apparent in the Germany game when Ezekiel Elliott looked like the 2016 version of himself when given the opportunity. Indianapolis is weak to running backs in general, as it also ranks seventh in receiving yardage allowed to opposing backs. Either way, Rachaad White is due for a huge game.

White will open things up for Baker Mayfield, who needs all the help he can get because of poor pass protection. Mayfield had to dink and dunk versus the 49ers because the coaches correctly didn’t trust his pass protection in that game. It won’t be nearly as much of a factor in this matchup.

However, I’d still expect most of the Tampa aerial production to come via White and Cade Otton. The Colts are stellar at covering receivers, but they’re a bottom-five defense when it comes to containing tight ends.

RECAP: Some of you may be surprised that I’m not betting against the Buccaneers. I’ve made it known that Tampa Bay sucks more than people think. The Buccaneers got lucky with some early results, inflating their record as a result. They’ve been a nice fade most weeks, though not so much the past two Sundays.

So, why am I not betting against the Buccaneers? Because I feel similarly about the Colts. Indianapolis’ 5-5 record is a farce, as the team has gotten lucky in some games. For instance, the Colts easily could have lost to the crappy Patriots in Germany, but were able to prevail because of two bone-headed plays by the quarterbacks. Indianapolis also was outgained in yards and yards per play in Carolina, but managed to win because of Bryce Young’s two pick-sixes.

It’s a shame we can’t fade both teams this week. I’m going to side with the Colts because there’s sharp money headed in their direction at the moment, but I otherwise don’t have a particular lean on this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Devin White, Lavonte David or Jamel Dean in Wednesday’s practice, so that’s something to look out for toward the end of the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers have some major defensive injuries. Jamel Dean and Lavonte David are out. Devin White is questionable after barely practicing all week. Carlton Davis isn’t healthy. They’re a mess, so it’s not a surprise that the sharps are betting the Colts. I’m going to jump on the bandwagon for a couple of units.

PLAYER PROPS: In the previous player prop section, I mentioned that the Texans surrender lots of production to slot receivers. Well, no team gives up more fantasy points to slot receivers than the Buccaneers. Josh Downs looks very appealing for that reason. Also, Downs has eclipsed 47.5 receiving yards in four of the six games in which he and Gardner Minshew played fully together. The best vig is -110 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I wrote on Saturday that the sharps were on the Colts. The pro money has evened out, and I think it’s because Devin White and Rachaad White, both of whom were questionable, are going to play. I won’t be betting this game after all. If you still want to, the best line is -2.5 -115 at BetMGM and DraftKings. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -1.

Computer Model: Colts -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 54% (159,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Road Team is 128-89 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Todd Bowles is 2-6 ATS in his second consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Colts -1.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: In past years, this would have been a no-brainer matchup. A rookie quarterback as bad as Danny DeVito wouldn’t have stood a chance against Bill Belichick. Well, times certainly have changed. We recently saw another young quarterback, Sam Howell, go into New England and defeat the grand master. If Howell was able to do that on the road, the quarterback who just beat him can certainly get the best of Belichick.

It still sounds crazy, but the Patriots have a broken defense because of all their injuries. Their secondary has been ravaged, so DeVito, in theory, could continue to have the same sort of success he experienced at Washington last week. Then again, the Patriots blitz at a high rate, and DeVito has been abysmal versus the blitz thus far in his young career.

DeVito can counter this by scrambling against the Patriots, who often struggle against running quarterbacks. DeVito can also toss passes to Saquon Barkley, who should be able to exploit a Patriots defense ranked in the bottom 10 of allowing receiving yardage to opposing backs.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: As of Tuesday afternoon, it’s still unclear who will start for the Patriots. Mac Jones was benched in Germany for throwing a horrible interception into the end zone in the fourth quarter. Bailey Zappe replaced him, but made a bone-headed play of his own. The best option might be Will Grier, who had an amazing performance in Dallas’ preseason finale.

Unless it’s Jones again, the Patriots will have a young quarterback under center against a blitz-heavy Giants defense. The Patriots struggle to pass protect, so it’s tough to expect anything from their offense, especially with the terrible receivers the quarterback will have at his disposal.

The Patriots will at least be able to move the chains on the ground. The Giants have surrendered the second-most rushing yards this year, so the duo of Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott will be able to keep their quarterback in favorable down-and-distance situations at the very least.

RECAP: Can someone explain this spread to me? What have the Patriots done to warrant being a favorite of more than a field goal over anyone, especially on the road? This is a team that lost at home to a Redskins team that had just traded Chase Young and Montez Sweat. If New England were healthy, I could buy it, but this team is still so banged up. They’ve been a huge money pit for their bettors, and I believe they will continue to be so.

It’s not the most assuring thing to be backing DeVito, but the beleaguered quarterback finally showed signs of life last week. He had a very easy matchup against the Redskins, but it’s not like this is the most difficult spot either. I’d actually normally like Belichick against a young quarterback, but he just doesn’t have the horses to stop anyone at the moment. Belichick’s defenses have also historically struggled against scrambling quarterbacks, so this is another area in which the Giants match up well.

I think this line should be pick ’em, or maybe -1 in either direction. New England -3.5 seems absurd so me, so I’ll be betting a few units on the Giants.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s still early, but the sharps are betting the Giants. I can’t say I’m surprised by this, given that the Patriots have no business being road favorites like this.

SATURDAY NOTES: I like the Giants less after seeing the injury report. New York won’t have Dexter Lawrence, while the Patriots will seemingly have a couple of offensive linemen back from injury, which will be a huge boon for the offense. I still don’t think the Patriots deserve to be favorites like this, but I’m going to drop the unit count to two.

PLAYER PROPS: Demario Douglas became a full-time player in Week 7. Since then, he has eclipsed this player prop total (48.5 receiving yards) in three of his four games. It’ll be 4-of-5 after this game, given that the Giants surrender the third-most production to slot receivers. The best number is over 48.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Patriots because their offensive line is healthy for the first time in a while. This could easily be a blowout, but I don’t think the Patriots deserve to be road favorites like this. The best line is +4.5 -108 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

All aboard the Tommy DeVito bandwagon!

Percentage of money on New York: 63% (143,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Patriots are 29-16 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Patriots -3.5.

Opening Total: 34.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 46 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: One reason I foolishly bet on the Panthers last week was that I didn’t think the Cowboys would be able to exploit Carolina’s biggest weakness. Of course, I shouldn’t have counted on Bryce Young not imploding, which we saw when he threw a back-breaking pick-six in the fourth quarter.

The biggest weakness, by the way, is the run defense. The Panthers have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing backs this year, which seems problematic against Derrick Henry. The perennial Pro Bowler has not quite been himself this year, but he’s endured a number of difficult matchups. Henry will be able to look like the elite rusher of old in this game.

Henry running wild will allow Will Levis to survive a very tough Carolina pass defense. The Panthers put lots of pressure on opposing quarterbacks when everyone is healthy, which is troubling for Levis, who holds the ball too long in the pocket behind a very poor offensive line.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It should have been obvious that Young would implode. He was staring down a great Dallas defense, after all. He had one solid drive, but was otherwise abysmal, giving his team no chance to win.

Things will be different in this matchup. The Titans have one of the worst aerial defenses in the NFL. They routinely surrender big plays in the passing game, though they do that mostly to outside receivers. Young doesn’t have a very good rapport with his outside receivers, as both D.J. Chark and Jonathan Mingo have been big disappointments this year. The Titans are better versus slot receivers, where Young’s top target, Adam Thielen, resides.

Young would love to have the same sort of help from his running game that Levis will receive. The problem is that the Titans are solid against the run. I wouldn’t expect much out of Chuba Hubbard or Miles Sanders, so Young will have to do it all on his own. This could prove to be disastrous.

RECAP: What I wrote about the Patriots being favored by more than three in the previous pick capsule applies to the Titans as well. Who is Tennessee to be favored by more than three points over anyone? I get that Carolina sucks, but the Titans do as well. Tennessee was blown out by Tampa Bay and Jacksonville recently. Sure, they beat the Falcons a few weeks ago, but it seemed as though Atlanta was caught off guard by having no tape on Levis.

I won’t be betting this game, however. The reason is the matchup, which is so lopsided toward the Titans. Henry will run all over the beleaguered Carolina ground defense, while Young won’t be able to fully take advantage of Tennessee’s poor secondary.

I wish this line were lower like -2.5, so I could bet the Titans. I can’t touch -3.5, however, because I don’t trust Levis or this miserable Tennessee team to win by more than a field goal against anyone, even the woeful Panthers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Just when it seemed as though the Panthers offensive line was getting healthier, they lost Austin Corbett to injured reserve again. I still like the Titans, but I don’t plan on betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Something interesting is that both quarterbacks appeared on the injury report; Bryce Young had a thigh issue of some sort, while Will Levis was dealing with a foot problem. Both will start, but there are other injury issues, particularly for Carolina. The Panthers will be missing both of their starting cornerbacks. The Titans, conversely, will have Sean Murphy-Bunting back from injury. I’m a bit more confident in the Titans now, but I hate this number.

PLAYER PROPS: This one almost seems too obvious, but Derrick Henry over 68.5 rushing yards makes so much sense. Excluding the Broncos, no team surrenders more rushing yards per game than the Panthers. Henry has eclipsed 68.5 rushing yards in every single favorable matchup this year. The best vig is -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp action has come in on the Panthers. I imagine it’s just because of the number. I still like the Titans for the great matchup. The best line is -3.5 +100 at Bovada.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Titans -4.

Computer Model: Titans -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Plenty of action on the Titans.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 66% (166,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Titans are 29-20 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Titans -4.5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Rain, 53 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

Video of the Week: Some attention has been brought to simp-phobia, so here’s a great video where a heoric reporter tries to get a simp laid:

I get the feeling the simp guy may have blown it with the strip club and Derek Jeter jersey story, but I’m not quite sure. In all honesty though, he dodged a bullet because the woman he was talking to was wearing a diaper on her face for some reason.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: We begin with the poor Bengals, who lost Joe Burrow to a season-ending hand injury against the Ravens. I loved Cincinnati as a team to win the Super Bowl, even betting them before the season, so this was a crushing blow for me as well. Everyone who bet on the Bengals or cheers for them should send their hate toward Roger Goodell, who is fully responsible for putting teams on the field on just three days of rest. Burrow’s hand couldn’t heal in time after the injury was suffered the prior week.

Jake Browning will take over the rest of the way, which sounds disastrous against Pittsburgh’s defense. The Steelers put a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and Cincinnati can’t block well. Burrow could at least release passes quickly, but Browning won’t be able to do that unless he’s dinking and dunking the ball.

Browning won’t be able to lean on his rushing attack either. The Steelers were previously weak to the run, but they have since improved in that regard ever since Cameron Heyward has gotten into shape. Besides, the Steelers will be able to key in on the run without having to worry about a deep passing game.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers made some news on Tuesday, firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada. This is tremendous for Pittsburgh’s outlook because Canada was such a dreadful coordinator. Ben Roethlisberger even had his worst years under Canada, who had to go.

I have to imagine that Kenny Pickett will play better in this game. Perhaps the new coordinator will incorporate more of the no-huddle offense because Pickett has played well when operating that way. Pickett should be able to connect more often with his receivers against a Cincinnati secondary that has allowed the seventh-most production to outside receivers this year.

The Bengals are also not very good against the run, ranking just outside of the top 10 in allowing rushing yardage to running backs. The new offensive coordinator could correctly decide to feed the ball to Jaylen Warren more often.

RECAP: I make spreads for every game before looking at the real lines each week. I have never been more off from the actual number than I am in this game. While the Steelers are favored by one, I have this spread as being Pittsburgh -7.

Maybe that sounds outrageous, but the case can be made that the Bengals are the worst team in the NFL with Jake Browning under center. Their defense ranks 30th in EPA, and now their offense should be in the high 20s or 30s with Browning under center. If that’s true, the Bengals can be classified as an abysmal team with Browinng because they have a bottom-five offense and defense. No other team in the NFL is ranked in the bottom five of offense and defense.

The case can be made that the Bengals will be playing at 110 percent with Browning in an effort to save their season. I could be talked into backing them if they were battling a mediocre or worse defense, but the Steelers defense is ranked in the top 12 and will have a field day with Browning, just as they did with Dorian Thompson-Robinson last week. Thompson-Robinson won, but the Steelers still limited Cleveland to only 13 points.

Pittsburgh scored just 10 points versus the Browns, as their anemic offense was responsible for the defeat. I’d be shocked if we saw a similar output, given that the Bengals have a much worse defense than Cleveland. Plus, Canada’s firing helps. Here is how teams have fared after firing their coordinators in the middle of the season:

2023: Bills fire OC Ken Dorsey – Win SU, Win ATS (-8.5)

2021: Panthers fire OC Joe Brady – Loss SU, Loss ATS (-2.5)

2021: Giants fire OC Jason Garrett – Win SU, Win ATS (+4)

2020: Raiders fire DC Paul Guenther – Loss SU, Loss ATS (-3)

2020: Jets fire DC Gregg Williams – Loss SU, Loss ATS (+16.5)

2019: Chargers fire OC Ken Whisenhunt – Win SU, Win ATS (+3.5)

2018: Vikings fire OC John DeFilippo – Win SU, Win ATS (-8)

2018: Jaguars fire OC Nathaniel Hackett – Win SU, Win ATS (+3)

2018: Bengals fire DC Teryl Austin – Loss SU, Win ATS (+6)

2018: Cardinals fire OC Mike McCoy – Win SU, Win ATS (+1.5)

2018: Buccaneers fire DC Mike Smith – Win SU, Loss ATS (-3.5)

2017: Raiders fire DC Ken Norton Jr. – Win SU, Win ATS (-4)

2017: Broncos fire OC Mike McCoy – Loss SU, Loss ATS (+4)

2017: Bengals fire OC Ken Zampese – Loss SU, Win ATS (+7.5)

2016: Vikings fire OC Norv Turner – Loss SU, Loss ATS (-5.5)

2016: Jaguars fire OC Greg Olson – Loss SU, Win ATS (+7)

2016: Ravens fire OC Marc Trestman – Loss SU, Loss ATS (+3.5)

2016: Bills fire OC Greg Roman – Win SU, Win ATS (+4)

2015: Lions fire OC Joe Lombardi – Loss SU, Loss ATS (+4.5)

—–

Overall: 9-10 SU, 11-8 ATS

Favorite: 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS

Underdog: 5-7 SU, 8-4 ATS

I’m going to be on the Steelers for a medium-sized wager, though I’m worried a bit that I’m missing something with the big calculated spread disparity though.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tee Higgins still isn’t practicing despite having the mini-bye to get healthy, so Cincinnati’s offense could be even worse than we expected.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tee Higgins is out, which is another blow for the offense. If the Bengals were playing against a team with a mediocre or worse defense, I’d have interest in them, but the Steelers’ dominant stop unit should get the best of Jake Browning. The lack of sharp action on this home underdog is telling.

PLAYER PROPS: The Bengals are very weak to tight ends; they’ve allowed the third-most production to the position. Unfortunately, I’m not seeing any Pat Freiermuth yardage props. What I will do is bet him to score the first touchdown at 17/1 odds. You can find that at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp action to speak of in this game. The line has gone to -2 or -2.5 in some books, but you can still find -1.5 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -5.5.

Computer Model: Steelers -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Decent lean on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 60% (200,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Steelers have won 24 of the last 33 meetings (Bengals won 4 of last 5 meetings).

Mike Tomlin is 56-32 ATS as an underdog. ???

Opening Line: Bengals -5.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Rain, 47 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: There was quarterback uncertainty for both teams entering their bye weeks. That still exists for the Saints with Derek Carr being in concussion protocol. There’s a chance that Jameis Winston will have to start this game.

This isn’t the worst thing for the Saints because Winston is a premium backup. In fact, it could be argued that Winston is an upgrade over Carr. Winston is willing to take more risks downfield, which is a positive in this matchup because he may be able to hook up with Rashid Shaheed often. The Falcons are poor to slot receivers, so Shaheed has a plus matchup. The same can be said for Juwan Johnson, as Atlanta allows every opposing tight end to look like Tony Gonzalez.

The Falcons, however, are better at stopping running backs and outside receivers. Clamping down on Alvin Kamara is definitely possible. Atlanta’s talented outside cornerbacks will be able to limit Chris Olave as well.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: There’s a flow chart for the Falcons that has worked well before the Arizona game. Excluding the victory over the miserable Buccaneers, the Falcons have beaten every team with a poor run defense, and they have lost to every team with a good run defense.

The Saints fall under the latter category. They’re just outside of the top 10 in run defense, so they should be able to limit Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, or whomever else Arthur Smith decides to use as a ball-carrier. This will force the Falcons quarterback into a rough down-and-distance situation.

The quarterback, by the way, will be Desmond Ridder. Smith has decided to go back to Ridder, which actually seems like a positive decision because of how surprisingly horrible Taylor Heinicke was versus Arizona’s anemic defense.

RECAP: I bet the Falcons to win this division, but I’m not as bullish on them as I was in the offseason. Arthur Smith has been such a huge disappointment. I thought he’d have a colossal coaching edge over the inept Dennis Allen, but that is not the case.

I’m going to side with the Saints. They seem to match up well with the Falcons, and they happen to be the better team. They’re just pick ’em when they should probably be favored by a couple of points, so I’ll be siding with them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Derek Carr is practicing fully while in concussion protocol, so he’ll be the starter unless he has a setback.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Falcons are receiving the second-most sharp action this week, perhaps because Marshon Lattimore is out. I was 50-50 on the game, so I’m just going to jump on the Atlanta bandwagon. I won’t be betting the Falcons though.

PLAYER PROPS: The Falcons have allowed every tight end to look like Tony Gonzalez, as they’ve allowed the fourth-most production to the position this year. Juwan Johnson looks good for that reason, as well as the fact that Michael Thomas is out. I’m going to bet his over receptions because his aDOT is so low. The best number is over 2.5 +100 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have continued to bet the Falcons. The best line is +2 -110 at Caesars.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Pick.

Computer Model: Saints -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Slight lean on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 63% (158,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Saints have won 9 of the last 11 meetings.

Derek Carr is 7-13 ATS as a road favorite. ???

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Dome.