NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2023 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2023): 6-8-1 (-$2,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2023): 5-10-1 (-$1,295)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2023): 5-9 (-$935)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2023): 7-6 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2023): 5-9 ($0)
2023 NFL Picks: 80-89-5 (-$8,905)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
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Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12 Late Games

Los Angeles Rams (4-6) at Arizona Cardinals (2-9)
Line: Rams by 2.5. Total: 44.5.

Sunday, Nov. 26, 4:05 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I had the urge to bet the Rams last week, but didn’t pull the trigger because I was worried about Matthew Stafford’s thumb injury. It turns out I was right not to wager on Safford because the Rams failed to cover the -1.5 spread, winning by a single point despite going against Drew Lock for a chunk of the second half.

Once again, it’s unknown how Stafford will perform. This sort of thumb injury doesn’t go away overnight, so we once again can only speculate on how healthy Stafford happens to be. I’m inclined to say that he probably won’t be 100 percent. Making matters worse, Cooper Kupp may miss this game after getting hurt last week. In the past, this would have been detrimental with Kupp being the only viable option, but that’s not the case anymore with Puka Nacua on the roster. Nacua has shown that he can be a viable replacement for Kupp, though not having him on the outside in this matchup hurts because Arizona is so bad versus outside receivers.

The Cardinals are also terrible when it comes to stopping the run. I’d expect a pair of quality performances from Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman, as both will be able to exploit this liability.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It’s remarkable that Kyler Murray has been able to step in under center and perform so well through two games after missing the first half of the year with a torn ACL. He can even scramble in crucial situations, as he did to beat the Falcons a couple of weeks ago.

Murray has a positive matchup against the Rams. Los Angeles has struggled to defend the pass. They’re mediocre at best against outside receivers, but they’re especially poor when defending tight ends. That has to be music to Murray’s ears because he’ll be able to target Trey McBride early and often.

The Rams haven’t been great against the run either. James Conner was a mild disappointment last week, but he’ll have a chance to rebound against a defense that has been gashed a lot on the ground lately.

RECAP: This seems to be a difficult game to handicap. The Rams initially seem somewhat appealing because they’ve owned the Cardinals in recent years. They have beaten Arizona in 12 of the 15 previous meetings. Perhaps this was just a Kliff Kingsbury thing, as Sean McVay had a colossal coaching edge in that game.

Even if it wasn’t just a Kingsbury thing, it’s going to be difficult to justify a wager on the Rams because there’s a chance that Stafford will once again be hindered by his thumb injury.

I’m not touching this game because it’s unclear if Stafford will be healthy. They’re going to be tough to bet until we see Stafford look 100 percent.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kyren Williams was practicing fully on Wednesday, so he’s certain to return, especially after Darrell Henderson was cut. This is big for the matchup, given how bad Arizona is versus the run.

SATURDAY NOTES: Sharp action is coming in on the Rams to move this line to -2.5. Cooper Kupp will play, while the Cardinals won’t have Michael Wilson and potentially Marquise Brown, who was DNP-DNP-limited in practice this week. I’d like the Rams if I knew Matthew Stafford were healthy. Unfortunately, no one covers the Rams, so no information gets released about them. I’m going to switch my pick, but I can’t bet the Rams.

PLAYER PROPS: Trey McBride went 4-62 in his first matchup against the Rams, who allow the seventh-most production to tight ends. Now, McBride is in a situation where he’ll be targeted more by a superior quarterback. He’ll be targeted more because Michael Wilson is out, while Marquise Brown has barely practiced this week. The best number is 51.5 -119 at Caesars.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s a bit of sharp action on the Rams, but nothing crazy. I wish this were optimism about Matthew Stafford’s thumb, but I think it’s more to do with the receiver injuries.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, some sharp action on the Rams, but nothing substantial. The best line is -2.5 -120 at FanDuel.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals. Calculated Spread: Cardinals -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -2.5.

Computer Model: Cardinals -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Slight lean on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 60% (149,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

  • History: Rams have won 12 of the last 15 meetings.
  • Cardinals are 46-31 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Rams -2.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Dome.

  • Week 12 NFL Pick: Rams 23, Cardinals 20
    Rams -2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Trey McBride over 51.5 receiving yards -119 (1 Unit) – Caesars — Correct; +$100
    Rams 37, Cardinals 14

    Cleveland Browns (7-3) at Denver Broncos (5-5)
    Line: Broncos by 2. Total: 35.5.

    Sunday, Nov. 26, 4:05 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

    If you’re looking to bet legally, you can get the best sportsbook promos where you’ll get hundreds of dollars in free wagers if you sign up using the links on this page. CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It was easy to expect the worst from Dorian Thompson-Robinson last week. Thompson-Robinson had a disastrous first start against the Ravens back in Week 4, so it was surprising that he was named the starter in the wake of Deshaun Watson’s season-ending announcement.

    Thompson-Robinson wasn’t great against the Steelers with his 13-point output, but he didn’t make mistakes and was able to convert some big throws to put the team in position to win at the very end. However, Thompson-Robinson will have his work cut out for him in this contest, given how potent Denver is defensively. The Broncos are great against the pass. They struggle versus tight ends, but they have been able to lock down opposing receivers, so Thompson-Robinson won’t have success connecting with Amari Cooper and others.

    Luckily for Thompson-Robinson, he’ll at least be able to lean on his running game. The Broncos have been brutal versus the rush all year, most recently allowing Alexander Mattison to play like Robert Smith.

    DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos have made some great improvements to their defense to bounce back from that horrible 70-20 outcome. They’ve also been better offensively this year. Russell Wilson has performed better of late, as he’s been using his legs more often.

    Wilson will have to scramble out of pressure in this game because he’ll be going up against the Browns and their devastating pass rush. Cleveland is in the top five of pressure rate, and they also blitz somewhat frequently. This is bad news for Wilson, who is not very good against the blitz.

    Unlike the Browns, the Broncos won’t have much success establishing a ground attack. Javonte Williams has looked better of late, but he’ll be going up against a defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards in the NFL.

    RECAP: I find this game unappealing from a betting perspective. I can make solid cases for both teams. The Browns are the better team overall, as their top-ranked defense will be able to frustrate Wilson by blitzing him often and making him uncomfortable. Denver also being favored isn’t a good sign for them. The Broncos are 1-4-1 against the spread as favorites this year. The only time they covered was against the Packers when they won 19-17 as 1.5-point favorites.

    The Browns, however, have a backup quarterback under center, and he’ll be going up against a top-10 defense. Backup signal-callers are often automatic fades versus top defensive units. I know Thompson-Robinson just beat the Steelers, but he did so by scoring only 13 points. Perhaps this will be another 13-10 affair, but if the Broncos can somehow get to 17, it might be too difficult for the rookie quarterback to prevail.

    I’m going to side with the Broncos because Thompson-Robinson could have another meltdown. The sharps are also betting Denver, for what it’s worth.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a lot of public money coming in on the underdog. The Broncos are a bit more appealing, but I can’t get there.

    SATURDAY NOTES: I’m surprised the sharps jumped off the Broncos because the injury report definitely favors the host. The Browns will be without Denzel Ward and perhaps Anthony Walker, two of their better defensive players. I still can’t back Denver as a favorite though.

    PLAYER PROPS: The Broncos have given up the most production to tight ends this year. David Njoku looks good for that reason, as well as the fact that he and Dorian Thompson-Robinson have shown positive chemistry. In Thompson-Robinson’s two starts, Njoku has gone 7-46 and 7-56. The best number is over 39.5 -120 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Again, the sharps jumped off the Broncos. Still no interest here from me.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: No sharp action to finish the week on Denver, which is weird. The best line is -1.5 -108 at Bookmaker.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: None. Calculated Spread: Broncos -1.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Browns -2.5.

    Computer Model: Broncos -1.

    The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

    The Browns are a public dog.

    Percentage of money on Cleveland: 66% (183,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.

  • Opening Line: Browns -3.
  • Opening Total: 41.
  • Weather: Sunny, 38 degrees. Light wind.

  • Week 12 NFL Pick: Broncos 16, Browns 13
    Broncos -2 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 35.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: David Njoku over 39.5 receiving yards -120 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Correct; +$100
    Broncos 29, Browns 12

    Buffalo Bills (6-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)
    Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 48.5.

    Sunday, Nov. 26, 4:25 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    BUFFALO OFFENSE: I can’t say there was much of a difference between the Bills offense that we saw with Ken Dorsey and what we had with Joe Brady versus the Jets. I was hoping Josh Allen would run more at least, but that was not the case. Then again, perhaps Allen just didn’t need to with a lead throughout the game against the woeful Jets.

    Allen will need to scramble against the Eagles, who bring tons of pressure and will make the pocket treacherous for Allen. However, Allen will have an opportunity for a big passing performance because Philadelphia’s secondary has been torched by almost everyone this year. Sam Howell looked like John Elway against them twice, so Allen should perform well in this matchup.

    Allen was able to lean on James Cook last week, but he won’t be able to do so again. Isiah Pacheco just ran well against the Eagles, but Philadelphia has maintained an elite ground defense for most of the year. I assume that the Eagles were preoccupied with containing Travis Kelce, so they allowed Pacheco to gain some yardage that turned out to be meaningless.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Bills won’t be the only team scoring frequently in this matchup. The Eagles have a positive outlook on this side of the ball as well. This wouldn’t have been the case back in September, but Buffalo’s defense has been ravaged by injury. Even the Patriots were able to have a tremendous offensive performance against them.

    Buffalo is at its worst defending the middle of the field because Matt Milano is sidelined. The Eagles will miss Dallas Goedert for that reason, but they’ll be able to attack Buffalo with D’Andre Swift, who is coming off a strong showing versus the Chiefs on Monday night.

    The Bills have been better against receivers recently, thanks to the Rasul Douglas trade. Douglas has been a great replacement for the injured Tre’Davious White, as the Bills were just able to lock down Garrett Wilson. Buffalo is far worse versus slot receivers, but this is not an area the Eagles utilize very well.

    RECAP: These are the two of the higher-end teams I’ve been fading in recent weeks. I’ve maintained the Eagles are overrated because their defense has been so weak. The Bills, meanwhile, reminded me of the Buccaneers from a year ago, at least before their blowout victory against the Jets. I certainly didn’t expect that, but I’m willing to chalk it up to New York’s quarterback situation just being that bad.

    So, what do you do when two teams you’re fading play against each other? Pass on the game, of course! I don’t anticipate betting either side unless we get some crazy injury news.

    As far as picking a side, I’m going with the Bills because it seems as though the two most likely results of this game are Philadelphia winning by three and then Buffalo winning by three. We get a win or a push by picking the Bills, who won’t be coming off a short week like the Eagles. Plus, it seems nice to bet a Philadelphia team that easily could have lost Monday night if it weren’t for some untimely drops and a Travis Kelce lost fumble in the red zone. Also, the Eagles could be caught looking ahead to their matchup against the 49ers. They just beat the Chiefs in a Super Bowl revenge game, so they could be flat.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s another game where there’s a lot of public money on the underdog. I still like the Bills a bit, but I don’t know if I’ll be betting Buffalo though.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills will be missing another defensive back, as Dane Jackson has been ruled out. I still have no desire to bet this game.

    PLAYER PROPS: Khalil Shakir has become a larger part of the offense in recent weeks. He has eclipsed this receiving yards prop (29.5 yards) in three of his previous four games by a wide margin (115, 57, 92). Even better, the Eagles surrender the second-most fantasy production to slot receiver. This prop is completely mispriced. The best number is over 29.5 -113 at Caesars.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s a bit of sharp action on the Bills, but nothing substantial. I can make a case for both teams in this game.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Lane Johnson is out! This is huge news, as the Eagles have a miserable history without their All-Pro tackle. The sharps have dragged this line below +3, and I’m going to bet Buffalo as well. BetMGM is behind and hasn’t moved the line to +2.5. You can get +3 -115 there. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

    The Motivation. Edge: Bills.

    The Eagles are coming off Super Bowl revenge. After this game, they battle the 49ers.

    The Spread. Edge: None. Calculated Spread: Eagles -4.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.5.

    Computer Model: Eagles -2.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

    The Bills are a public dog.

    Percentage of money on Buffalo: 61% (220,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.

  • Opening Line: Eagles -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 47.5.
  • Weather: Rain, 50 degrees. Light wind.

  • Week 12 NFL Pick: Eagles 28, Bills 27
    Bills +3 -115 (2 Units) – BetMGM — Push; $0
    Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Player Prop: Khalil Shakir over 29.5 receiving yards -113 (2 Units) – Caesars — Correct; +$200
    Eagles 37, Bills 34

    Kansas City Chiefs (8-2) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-6)
    Line: Chiefs by 9. Total: 43.

    Sunday, Nov. 26, 4:25 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It can’t exactly be frustrating to be a Chiefs fan right now because their team won the Super Bowl nine months ago. Still, it was a known fact that the Chiefs needed to upgrade their receiving corps after their debacle in Week 1. I speculated that they would trade for Mike Evans, but nothing of the sort happened. As a result, their horrible receivers cost them a potential victory against the Eagles.

    Believe it or not, the Chiefs’ passing attack has a tougher matchup this week. The Eagles have struggled to defend the pass all year, whereas the Raiders have been effective at limiting receivers. Tyreek Hill just looked great against them, but he’s a special talent who was able to shatter a tough matchup. The Chiefs don’t have anyone remotely close to that at the position. There’s Travis Kelce, at least, but he was part of the problem on Monday night with a drop and a lost fumble inside the Philadelphia 10-yard line.

    The primary liability the Raiders have on this side of the ball is their inability to contain the run. Isiah Pacheco was impressive against Philadelphia’s ground defense on Monday night, so perhaps he’ll pick up where he left off.

    LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Though the Chiefs lost, their defense was stellar against the Eagles most of the night. They were able to swarm Jalen Hurts and sack him on numerous occasions even though Hurts is protected by an elite offensive line.

    Aidan O’Connell is not protected by an elite offensive line. The Raiders have had issues blocking for most of the year, so it’s fair not to trust their front versus the Chiefs’ talented defensive line. O’Connell will constantly be under siege, which could lead to some turnovers. O’Connell will also have some success targeting Davante Adams, but not very often, as Kansas City just shut down A.J. Brown.

    The Chiefs, however, aren’t very good versus the run, so this is a way to keep pressure off O’Connell. Josh Jacobs seems primed for a big game, as he’ll continue what D’Andre Swift started Monday night.

    RECAP: A general rule for big spreads like this is to take the big favorite if A) they’re focused, B) they’re healthy, and C) they’re battling one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Raiders have some holes, but I don’t think we can say they are one of the worst teams in the NFL, at least not since Josh McDaniels was fired. In fact, the Raiders are 15th in net EPA. Their offense is 28th, but their defense is ranked third. They’re getting pressure on the quarterback well and performing above expectations in the back seven. Granted, some of their most recent performances have come against weaker offenses, but they limited the Dolphins to just 20 points.

    Also, something to consider is that the Chiefs are coming off a short week and traveling to the West Coast. This is a situation that hurt the Jets and Chargers recently. Another situation that seems odd is a road favorite of more than a touchdown playing on a short week off a Monday night loss. This is not something that occurs frequently at all, as there’s just an eight-game sample size, but it just doesn’t seem like a very favorable situation because these teams are being asked to perform very well to cover as a big road favorite, yet they have to do so with less preparation time as usual after not performing well in the first place. Teams in this situation are 2-5-1 against the spread dating back to 1989. Again, it’s a small sample size and may mean nothing overall, but I just think it’s odd for any team to be laying this many points after suffering a defeat on a short week.

    Anyway, I like the Raiders to cover this huge spread. This is their Super Bowl, while the Chiefs just played the rematch of theirs. I made this line Kansas City -6, so we’re getting some value with the home dog.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Something we discovered on the After Dark Show is that teams playing divisional games cover at a very high rate heading into the bye. Maybe this is just a meaningless trend, but it can’t hurt when we already loved the Raiders.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Man, what a bummer. The Raiders were my favorite pick among Sunday’s games, and I was going to add a fourth unit. However, the injury report will make me knock this unit count down to two. Maxx Crosby is doubtful, and if that wasn’t enough Robert Spillane is questionable after being limited all week. If Spillane is inactive, I’m not going to bet this game.

    PLAYER PROPS: Patrick Mahomes’ rushing yardage prop is 21.5. This seems way low. Look at Mahomes’ rushing yardage this year: 38, 24, 20, 29, 31, 0, 51, 28, 30, 45. He’s gone over 21.5 in eight of his 10 games. Mahomes is simply running more because he needs to as a result of his receivers being terrible. Furthermore, Mahomes is coming off a loss. Dating back to 2020, he would have gone over 21.5 rushing yards in six of the nine games following a defeat. The best vig is 21.5 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps love the Raiders, and I will too if Maxx Crosby and Robert Spillane end up playing. I may even move this selection to four units.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Maxx Crosby and Robert Spillane are both active. I love the Raiders, and so do the sharps. I’m bumping this to four units. The best line is +9 -108 at Bookmaker.

    The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

    This is the Raiders’ Super Bowl.

    The Spread. Edge: Raiders. Calculated Spread: Chiefs -6.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -9.5.

    Computer Model: Chiefs -3.

    The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

    Slight lean on the Chiefs.

    Percentage of money on Kansas City: 64% (200,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.

  • History: Chiefs have won 15 of the last 17 meetings.
  • Patrick Mahomes is 78-21 SU, 53-45 ATS (41-33 ATS when not favored by double digits.)
  • Patrick Mahomes is 11-7 ATS after a loss.
  • Patrick Mahomes is 5-10 ATS as a road favorite of 7+.
  • Andy Reid is 9-14 ATS two weeks after the bye.
  • Opening Line: Chiefs -9.5.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: Dome.

  • Week 12 NFL Pick: Chiefs 23, Raiders 17
    Raiders +9 -108 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$430
    Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Patrick Mahomes over 21.5 rushing yards -110 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$110
    Chiefs 31, Raiders 17

    Baltimore Ravens (8-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)
    Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 48.

    Sunday, Nov. 26, 8:20 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

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    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Both teams suffered major injuries last week. The Ravens had theirs first, as Mark Andrews suffered what appeared to be a season-ending ankle injury. Better news has since surfaced, as Andrews could return later in the year, but he’ll be out for a while. The Chargers then had Joey Bosa get hurt a few days later. Bosa was seen crying while being carted into the locker room.

    Of the two injuries, Bosa will hurt more than Andrews. It could be argued that it would have been Andrews last year, but the Ravens have more firepower at receiver this season. Not having Andrews will certainly be damaging, but the Bosa absence will be a crushing blow to a Charger defense that already struggles to stop aerial attacks. A diminished pass rush will be very harmful to the Chargers’ chances of stopping the opposition.

    It’s not all bleak for the Chargers, however. There are two positives on this side of the ball for them in this matchup. First, they’re usually great against the run, so Gus Edwards and Keaton Mitchell won’t get much on the ground. Second, the Chargers are one of the best teams in the NFL when it comes to limiting the rushing yardage of mobile quarterbacks, so Lamar Jackson isn’t expected to do much scrambling.

    SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Ravens have some advantages on this side of the ball as well. Primarily, their ability to stop the pass is top notch. They’ve allowed a league-low seven touchdowns this year. In fact, they’ve intercepted quarterbacks on 10 occasions. Any time a defense gets more picks than it allows touchdowns is obviously a great sign. Baltimore is also stellar at defending receivers.

    This, by the way, includes Baltimore’s ability to limit slot receivers. The Ravens have been in the top five of restricting slot receivers this year, which is obviously significant because Keenan Allen is the Chargers’ top weapon. It’s impossible to stop Allen, but at least slowing him down will give the Ravens a great chance of winning this game.

    The Ravens are at their weakest on this side of the ball when it comes to stopping the run. They’re not bad versus the rush, but it’s not a strength either. The Chargers, however, are not equipped to exploit this liability.

    RECAP: My first instinct when I saw this line was to bet the Chargers. Herbert and company are capable of beating anyone, but they’re also able to lose to anyone as well. Getting four key numbers with them seemed appealing because of a potential back-door possibility. Plus, the Ravens will be less explosive without Andrews.

    The other injury gives me pause, however. If Bosa were playing, I’d like the Chargers, but Bosa’s absence greatly changes the dynamics of this game. Teams missing elite edge rushers like Bosa are far worse defensively, and this will allow Baltimore to be much more explosive offensively. It’ll also make this line much more difficult to cover for the Chargers.

    As you can tell, I’m a bit torn on this game. I’m going to side with the Ravens because of the Bosa injury. I also think the Chargers are in a bad place right now with Brandon Staley snapping at reporters. However, I could also see this easily being a three-point game.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I hate laying the hook when it seems like the most likely result of this game is the Ravens winning by three. Still no play for me.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens might get Ronnie Stanley and Marlon Humphrey back from injury. Stanley practiced fully on Thursday, though he was downgraded to DNP on Friday. Humphrey was limited all week. Having both back will be huge for their chances of covering this tricky spread.

    PLAYER PROPS: I’m not in love with this one because Isaiah Likely hasn’t been productive this year, but this is a great matchup for him with the Chargers allowing the second-most production to tight ends this season. The best number is over 29.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has dropped to -3. That obviously makes the Ravens may more appealing. I might end up betting a unit on them.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m tilted right now after the Raiders didn’t cover as nine-point underdogs despite going up 14-0. I’m going to limit this bet to one unit. I like the Ravens at -3 rather than -3.5. The best line is -3 -115 at Bookmaker. The sharps bet the Chargers at +3.5, but not +3.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: None. Calculated Spread: Ravens -5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.5.

    Computer Model: Ravens -5.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

    Slight lean on the Ravens for most of the week. Lots of public action late.

    Percentage of money on Baltimore: 72% (364,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

  • Ravens are 5-12 ATS on the West Coast in franchise history.
  • Brandon Staley is 6-2 ATS after losing as a favorite.
  • Chargers are 19-27 ATS in San Angeles.
  • Opening Line: Ravens -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Dome.

  • Week 12 NFL Pick: Ravens 30, Chargers 23
    Ravens -3 -115 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$100
    Over 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Isaiah Likely over 29.5 receiving yards -115 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings — Correct; +$50
    Ravens 20, Chargers 10

    Chicago Bears (3-8) at Minnesota Vikings (6-5)
    Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 43.

    Monday, Nov. 27, 8:15 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of Minnesota, where tonight, the Chicago Bears take on the Minnesota Pelicans. Guys, no one cares about this game because it’s too scary. The Bears used to be called the Monsters of the Midway, so Mother wouldn’t let me watch any of their games because I would get nightmares. But now that I’m a blooming flower, I can finally stay up and watch the Bears!

    Emmitt: Thanks, Kefka. My father, Emmitt Smith Jr. the IV the III Sr. the Jr. VIII Esq. once tolded me that monster do not existment, but then I sawed the docubobmentuary Monsters Inc. and I know now that he could not be wronger. I telled my son Emmitt Snow Jr. that he need to watch out for monster who comed from his door and he not sleep at night anymore.

    Reilly: Great, Emmitt, now I won’t be able to sleep. Hopefully I can find my girlfriend tonight so she can read me a bedtime story while on the phone because Mother will be too angry if she’s in my private bedroom with me. Besides, I wouldn’t want my new girlfriend ruining my Nick Foles bobble head and beach blanket collection. But let’s find out who the lucky lady is this week. The producers gave me a list of all the singers in Chicago and Minnesota, and I choose Kandy West.

    Tollefson: What kind of a name is Kandy West? That sounds like a stripper. Speaking of strippers, I would avoid kidnapping them to cook and clean for you. It might sound great to have strippers as sex and maid slaves in your house, but strippers cause more messes than clean them, so they are highly inefficient.

    Reilly: Tolly, you’re so smart, but please don’t use the word stripper around me because Mother might ground me. She says I can’t see a woman naked unless it’s her. OK, I’m getting word in my ear that Kandy West is here. Kandy West, it’s great to meet you. Are you ready to be forced into being my girlfriend?

    Kanye West: It’s not Kandy West. It’s Kanye West, and I changed it to just Ye. And then I changed it to Kan. And then, I decided to be called Blakenshphere. I have to keep changing my name because the people in charge – you know who they are – want to enslave me and drink my soul, man. Someone needs to stop those people in charge.

    Reilly: I need to get better glasses because I keep misreading names. Kanye West, I mean, Blakenshphere, I’m sorry, but I’m not interested in guys unless it’s Nick Foles. Mother says that men liking men is the devil. And you better be careful with talking bad about people in charge because Mother is in charge, and she’s the boss.

    Kanye West: Sounds like your mother is one of those people in charge. I’m not going to say who they are, but they do not belong on the land they currently occupy. That land belongs to the marshmallow flag banjos, who are coming to Earth in the year 4048. It’s in my book, I Hate Jewels, which is not about jewels.

    Adam Schefter: Kevin, we have breaking news. I just bought all of the Covid vaccines that are made in the Middle East because Blakenshphere’s rhetoric might lead to war. Kevin, I need to inject my anus with as many covid boosters as possible, Kevin, or I’ll surely die of Covid even though I am young and in shape. Back to you, Kevin.

    Reilly: Schefter, no one cares if you live or die. The only thing that matters is my Philadelphia Eagles and the fact that it’s after Thanksgiving now, and I haven’t found a singer girlfriend to make myself look good to Mother’s friends at the hair salon. Senator president John Feasterman, do you have a daughter or sister singer I can date to impress Mother’s friends?

    John Fetterman: The date is July 16, 4048. Happy Plumbus Day. The frontier flight lands on the rock after hours of delay. And then you have the best week possible. If you went into the underground, you will appear in the caverns. Did you make friends with the backward man name along the way? Or did the plumbus turn orange? Thursday is hamburger day, cowboy.

    Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! I just wish you had a daughter who was a famous singer so I could force her to be my girlfriend. And why did this Kandy West guy have to be a guy and not a girl?

    Kanye West: Sometimes I am a guy and sometimes I am a girl. Sometimes I am both, and sometimes I am neither. That’s what happens when I take my medicine that the jewels give me. They force met to take the medicine, man.

    Reilly: Mother makes me take medicine too when she shoves the syringe into my mouth after dinner each night. It’s bulls**t, and those jewels need to be stopped because Mother keeps shoving medicine into my mouth! President Joel Bident, you are very popular because you legitimately got the most votes ever. What do you plan on doing about this?

    Joe Biden: Now look here, you ladder-shaking, cat-smoking dinosaur, you better take it into your mouth and like it. When my girlfriend Caroline returns home from daycare, I sometimes shove my fist into her mouth, and if she cries, I say, “Look, Jack, you gotta take the fist in your mouth before we go get some choco-choco chip ice cream and then we take a steamy shower together whether you like it or not.” I am a man who isn’t afraid to use his fists. When my son, uhh, the kid, you know the name, gets out of line, I punch him real hard in the shoulder, just like I once punched my nemesis Apple Jack down at the local pool. I told Apple Jack that I will choke him with some chains the white maintenance guy gave me. The black maintenance guy. He was black. His roaches probably went to a racial jungle of a school. I don’t want to send my kids there. I love my kids, especially when I can use them to make private equity deals heh heh heh uh oh time to go to the situation room again.

    Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that he punched his nemesis Apple Jack down by the local pool, which is a total lie, and it’s no a surprise that Sleepy Joe would lie because he’s a total disaster and a total disgrace to say that Apple Jack got punched because, frankly, it was Sleepy Joe who was punched, not Apple Jack, great guy that Apple Jack, he’s one of the best, and he loves Trump, and Trump loves Apple Jack, and so does everyone else, we’ve been the best at everything, no one is even close, especially Sleepy Joe, who has been the worst at everything, it’s sad what he has done to this country, it’s been a total disgrace, and he should be ashamed, but he’s too sleepy to even know what he’s done wrong, especially with smearing poor Apple Jack, who is a great guy, almost as great as Trump.


    Reilly: Shut up, idiots! Blakenshphere, it was great to interview you to be my girlfriend, but I need to pass and search for someone pretty who can make Travis Kelce and Taylor look stupid.

    Kanye West: Wait, I haven’t brought enough attention onto myself yet. So, I’m going to storm out of here because I’m so angry that all of you are agents of the jewels! Good day! I said, good day!

    Reilly: What just happened? Does Blakenshphere really hate me that much? So much for him being my girlfriend! New Daddy, will I ever get a famous singer girlfriend?

    Jay Cutler: It would appear likely.

    Reilly: Really!? Thanks, New Daddy!

    Jay Cutler: I wsn’t talking to you. I was playing with my new Magic 8 ball.

    Reilly: Come on, New Daddy. You better be careful, or Blakenshphere will add you to the list of people he hates on top of the jewels.

    Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re discussing jewels, Kevin, but as you can probably see, I haven’t really been paying attention, so maybe you aren’t talking about jewels, Kevin, so let’s pretend you are, Kevin. Let’s touch on ruby, Kevin. What about emerald, Kevin? Let’s discuss sapphire, Kevin. What are your thoughts on topaz, Kevin? Don’t forget about amethyst, Kevin. We can break down opal, Kevin. I don’t know about you, but I could go for some ruby right now, Kevin. Let’s hear your take on pearl, Kevin. And then there’s diamond, Kevin, which you’ll never give to a girl, Kevin, because you’re a loser, Kevin.


    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Josh Dobbs’ miraculous story nearly continued last Sunday night. Going into the game 2-0 with his new team, Dobbs had the Vikings ahead for most the night. Turnovers ruined a potential upset, however, as Minnesota dropped to 6-5.

    All hope isn’t lost with Dobbs, however, especially in this matchup. Dobbs has a great outlook versus the Bears, who have struggled against the pass all year. They acquired Montez Sweat, but they’ve still fared poorly against aerial attacks. Making matters worse for Chicago, Justin Jefferson is expected back for this game.

    The Bears are at least stout versus the run. Alexander Mattison ran well versus a poor Denver rush defense last week, but he won’t have nearly as much success against a Chicago stop unit that has surrendered the fewest ground yards in the NFL, save for the Eagles.

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: Justin Fields would have loved this matchup last year. The Vikings had a miserable defense in 2022, so Fields, in his second game back from injury, would have torched an anemic secondary with ease.

    The Vikings are so much better on this side of the ball this season. Minnesota, ranking seventh in defensive EPA, blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL. This is bad news for Fields, who is much worse when blitzed. His completion percentage drops nearly seven points, while his turnover-worthy play rate rises. Fields also won’t be able to rely on his running game because Minnesota is stout versus the run.

    Speaking of rushing the ball, the best avenue for the Bears to move the chains will be via Fields’ scrambles. The Vikings surrender the 10th-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, so this wouldn’t be the time for Fields to play like Drew Bledsoe, a strategy he utilized versus the Buccaneers in a Week 2 loss.

    RECAP: I hate that these teams are playing against each other this week. They’re two of the teams I’ve been wanting to bet on recently because they’re both much better than the public thinks they are. Chicago has improved with Fields being healthy and Sweat joining the team, while Minnesota’s record is suppressed by unlucky circumstances earlier in the season. This is the opposite of what occurred with the Vikings last year, as they could easily be 8-3 or so with better luck. Jefferson’s potential return only helps matters.

    Ultimately, I’m going to side with the Bears because I think the most likely results of this game are Vikings by three and then Bears by three. Minnesota can certainly win by four or more, but Fields can keep things close and potentially achieve a back-door cover if needed.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: These teams haven’t practiced yet, so it’ll be interesting to see if Justin Jefferson can get in some full sessions.

    SATURDAY NOTES: T.J. Hockenson has been limited through two days, while Justin Jefferson won’t play. If Hockenson is out, I’ll be betting the Bears.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on Justin Jefferson confirmation. There’s sharp action on Chicago right now.

    MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: We’ve had a great week thus far, so I’m going to bet this game. I think this game has a high chance of being decided by three either way, so I’m going to side with Chicago along with the sharps. This will only be a one-unit bet.

    PLAYER PROPS: Justin Jefferson is out, which opens up other Vikings props. I like Brandon Powell, who has gone over 20.5 yards in his previous two games. The Bears allow top-10 production to slot receivers. The best number is 20.5 -125 at PointsBet.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I said there was sharp money on the Bears. Other sharp action came in on Minnesota, so it’s evened out. If you still like the Bears, the best number is +3 +100 at Bovada, followed by +3 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: None. Calculated Spread: Vikings -4.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -4.

    Computer Model: Vikings -2.5.

    The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

    Slight lean on the Bears.

    Percentage of money on Chicago: 62% (60,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

  • History: Vikings won the last 5 meetings.
  • Vikings are 43-33 ATS at home since 2014 (12-18 ATS since 2020).
  • Opening Line: Vikings -4.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: Dome.

  • Week 12 NFL Pick: Vikings 26, Bears 24
    Bears +3 +100 (1 Unit) – Bovada — Correct; +$100
    Over 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Brandon Powell over 20.5 receiving yards -125 (1 Unit) – PointsBet — Correct; +$100
    Bears 12, Vikings 10

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

    NFL Picks Week 12 – Early Games

    Packers at Lions  |  Redskins at Cowboys  |  49ers at Seahawks  |  Dolphins at Jets  |  Jaguars at Texans  |  Buccaneers at Colts  |  Patriots at Giants  |  Panthers at Titans  |  Steelers at Bengals  |  Saints at Falcons  | 

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