Miami Dolphins Rookies Forecast

By Charlie Campbell – @draftcampbell

Solid Starter

Jerome Baker, LB, Ohio State – Round 3
This is the second year in a row that I’m picking an Ohio State linebacker as a solid starter for Miami. Unfortunately, Raekwon McMillan missed his rookie year with a knee injury, but both McMillan and Jerome Baker looked like players who could emerge as solid starting linebackers in the NFL. With Kiko Alonso at Mike – middle – linebacker, McMillan can man the Sam – strongside – with the fast Baker playing the Will – weakside. That could give Miami an improved linebacking corps after the position was a real liability in 2017.

Entering his final collegiate season, there was a lot of media hype about Baker being a first-round pick from the likes of Bleacher Report and ESPN. WalterFootball.com, however, spoke with scouts who did advance work on the 2018 class, they weren’t impressed with Baker. They said that Baker runs around more blocks than he takes on and has the speed to get away with that against average offensive lines. They thought was more of a second-day to early third-day prospect. They said Baker is a good player, but not complete and isn’t anything exceptional. They felt Baker was a good, solid, instinct guy who, in the right system, will play in the NFL, but over time, is not an exceptional player. That was given proof in his final collegiate season, when he totaled 72 tackles with eight for a loss, 3.5 sacks, one forced fumble and three passes broken up.

With Miami, I think Baker could turn into solid starter at Will linebacker. I don’t think he will ever be a player who becomes elite or is a perennial Pro Bowler, but he could be a solid starter who gets the job done. The Dolphins will just need more special players around him.

2017: Raekwon McMillan, LB
2016: Xavien Howard, CB
2015: DeVante Parker, WR
2014: JaWuan James, OT
2013: Dallas Thomas, G

Most Likely To Bust

Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State – Round 2
Miami had a huge hole at tight end, so it wasn’t surprising when the organization took Gesicki in the second round. For the NFL, Gesicki is a receiving tight end who could hurt defenses with his mismatch problems, including athleticism, height and speed. He runs well down the seam, using his speed to get vertical. His impressive athletic ability translates to him having excellent body control and leaping ability. However, Gesicki does have some areas to improve for the NFL as a receiver. He dropped far too many balls for Penn State. Those came on both contested catches and non-contested catches. As a pro, his role will be a receiving tight end, so he needs to be more reliable at catching the ball.

As a blocker, Gesicki needs a ton of work. Defensive ends and linebackers routinely beat the blocks from Gesicki, but he even struggled to block defensive backs. In order for Gesicki to become a three-down starter in the NFL, his blocking ability is going to need massive improvement. Getting stronger would help, and he has the frame to add weight. At least in the early going, Gesicki is to be relegated to serving as a receiving tight end, which will limit his snaps. He may never develop into a three-down starter capable of being a good blocker and receiver.

Here’s how one team source broke down Gesicki prior to the combine, “Gesicki is Coby Fleener. Tall, lean, probably will run fast, horrendous blocker – even versus defensive backs. He’s got some high-point ability, but I have seen him drop his share of contact catches and contested catches too. I don’t feel he’s as a strong as he could be.”

I agree that Gesicki would end up being like Fleener in the NFL. Fleener was bust for the Colts and Saints. Of Miami’s early-round picks, I think Gesicki has the most bust potential.

2017: Cordrea Tankersley, CB
2016: Leonte Carroo, WR
2015: Bobby McCain, CB
2014: Billy Turner, G
2013: Jelani Jenkins, LB

Potential Boom Pick

Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama – Round 1
The Dolphins had bigger needs than safety, but Fitzpatrick was too good for them to pass on. He was one of the top defensive backs in college football the past three seasons, serving as the clutch player for the Crimson Tide who solved a wide variety of problems with his skill set. The 6-foot, 204-pounder could be a superb defender in the NFL as an asset to wipe out mismatches.

With his skill set and versatility, Fitzpatrick looks like a real weapon for a pro defense. He can play the roaming safety role in the middle of the field, where his instincts put him in position to make plays on the ball. Another great attribute that Fitzpatrick possesses is being able to play nickel corner. He is good in man coverage to line up over the slot receiver and prevent separation. Fitzpatrick also can play man coverage on tight ends, and his pro defense is going to love having him to help neutralize the elite receiving tight ends of the NFL. Downfield, Fitzpatrick can also help in coverage on big wideouts and speed receivers who threaten defenses downfield along the sideline.

Fitzpatrick also is a threat to take the ball away downfield. He tracks the pass extremely well and shows nice ball skills. For a defensive back, Fitzpatrick has excellent hands. He is a real threat to create interceptions and make a game-changing play for his defense. With his instincts and skill set, Fitzpatrick is able to be the deep free safety center fielder who locks down the deep part of the field. It is hard to find single-high safeties, but Fitzpatrick has that ability. He also is a dangerous blitzer. In the ground game, Fitzpatrick can drive downhill and tackle in the box. He is very adept at making open-field tackles and preventing offenses from breaking big plays. He flies around the field and is always around the ball.

Miami has a very good safety in Reshad Jones and a hard-hitting physical defender in T.J. McDonald to go with him. Fitzpatrick can revolve from cornerback to safety to solve a weakness depending on the team the Dolphins are matching up against. In the longer term, Fitzpatrick should be a starter at safety with Jones, but also will be an option to play some corner. Fitzpatrick could be a real boom pick for the Dolphins, and I see him going to a lot of Pro Bowls and being a real asset in their defense.

2017: Charles Harris, DE
2016: Laremy Tunsil, OT
2015: Jordan Phillips, DT
2014: Jarvis Landry, WR
2013: Dion Jordan, LB

Future Depth Player

Kalen Ballage, RB, Arizona State – Round 4
The Dolphins needed some running back depth after trading Jay Ajayi during the 2017 season. Kenyan Drake is a very talented back, but he has had issues staying healthy going back to his years at Alabama. Ballage possesses a ton of talent but doesn’t play consistently, and some team sources did not like his makeup and felt that led to him underachieving. To go along with his size, Ballage is surprisingly fast. He has a real burst with first-step quickness to hit the hole before it closes. Ballage has easy acceleration to the second level and a second gear in the open field to break off long runs.

Even though Ballage is a big back, he is more elusive in the open field than a power runner who runs through tackles. The 6-foot-2, 222-pounder is shifty and can make defenders miss in the open field. As a receiving back for the NFL, Ballage is very impressive. He has soft hands to make receptions and runs good routes. Ballage looks like a great fit for Adam Gase’s offense. If Ballage can put it altogether, he has starting potential. However, his own issues could put a ceiling on his career, in which case I think he will at least be a quality backup running back in the NFL.

2017: Davon Godchaux, DT
2016: Kenyon Drake, RB
2015: Jay Ajayi, RB
2014: Arthur Lynch, TE
2013: Mike Gillislee, RB

Walt’s 2018 NFL Draft Grades:

11. Minkah Fitzpatrick, S/CB, Alabama A- Grade
Over Tremaine Edmunds? That’s kind of a surprise. This is a solid pick, however, as Fitzpatrick will be able to solve the same sort of problems Edmunds could have. The Dolphins have been miserable against tight ends and pass-catching running backs for years, which is obviously a huge issue when going up against the Patriots. Fitzpatrick will be able to help immensely in that regard, so that helps. There is some concern about Alabama players’ durability – which is why they’ve dropped in recent drafts – but considering Fitzpatrick could have been chosen at No. 9, I think this is a good choice for Miami.

42. Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State B+ Grade
The Dolphins were going tight end all the way here, as they didn’t have one on their roster. I would have chosen Dallas Goedert, but Gesicki is a very solid choice. Gesicki is extremely athletic and should be able to develop into a potent weapon for Ryan Tannehill. I expected him to go in the middle of Round 2, so the range is definitely right for him.

73. Jerome Baker, LB, Ohio State B+ Grade
Jerome Baker has a great combination of speed and athleticism, and he’s well worth a pick in the third round. I like this choice for the Dolphins, as Baker fills a big need. Miami didn’t have a strongside linebacker on the roster, which was kind of a problem. Baker should be able to start right away, though it’s not like he’ll have competition.

123. Durham Smythe, TE, Notre Dame C+ Grade
I said it for the Will Dissly pick; taking blocking tight ends in the fourth round isn’t a good move because they grow on trees. However, Smythe has better receiving ability than Dissly, so I like this pick a bit better.

131. Kalen Ballage, RB, Arizona State B Grade
Kalen Ballage never lived up to his physical ability at Arizona State. That’s a bit scary, but the upside is certainly there. Ballage has the talent to become an NFL starter, but we’ll see if he puts more effort into football. I like the risk here at the end of Round 4.

209. Cornell Armstrong, CB, Southern Miss D Grade
This is a poor choice in the sixth round, as Cornell Armstrong is squarely a UDFA prospect. I don’t even know if he was a priority UDFA. Armstrong has an injury history, and I don’t know if he makes Miami’s roster.

227. Quentin Poling, LB, Ohio B Grade
Quentin Poling was slotted nine selections earlier in my mock draft, so I like the range for him. Poling should be a quality special-teamer and reserve linebacker in the pros. Given Miami’s linebacking woes, he could see more action than he would elsewhere.

229. Jason Sanders, K, New Mexico C Grade
It’s the seventh round. Time to take a kicker. Meh.

2018 NFL Draft Team Grade: C+ . Follow Walter @walterfootball for updates.

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