2024 NFL Season Preview: Atlanta Falcons

Bijan Robinson

Atlanta Falcons (Last Year: 7-10)



Season Summary:
The Falcons had a chance to win the division, but the incompetent Arthur Smith ruined things by leaning on lesser-talented players. Smith was correctly dismissed, so the Falcons will be better coached in 2024.



2024 NFL Season Preview:

Veteran Additions:
QB Kirk Cousins, WR Darnell Mooney, WR Rondale Moore, WR Ray-Ray McCloud, TE Charlie Woerner, DE Matthew Judon, CB Antonio Hamilton, S Justin Simmons.
Early Draft Picks:
QB Michael Penix Jr., DT Ruke Orhorhoro, DE Bralen Trice, DT Brandon Dorlus, LB JD Bertrand. Falcons Rookie Forecast
Offseason Losses:
QB Desmond Ridder, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Mack Hollins, WR Van Jefferson, TE Jonnu Smith, TE MyCole Pruitt, DE Calais Campbell, DE Bud Dupree, CB Jeff Okudah.

2024 Atlanta Falcons Offense:
There was some miserable quarterbacking in the NFL this past season, but no team had worse quarterbacking from start to finish than the Falcons. Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke were both atrocious, so it was clear that no team needed an upgrade at the position more than Atlanta. This is why the Falcons spent $100 million on Kirk Cousins. While Cousins is 36 (as of August) and is coming off a torn Achilles, he represents a much better option to lead the Falcons into the playoffs.

And then, the draft pick happened. The Falcons inexplicably spent the No. 8 overall selection on Michael Penix Jr. when an elite pass rusher like Laiatu Latu could have taken their defense to the next level. The only possible explanation for the decision is that Cousins didn’t look right coming off his torn Achilles and Atlanta recognized him as a sunk cost. If so, it was the correct decision; otherwise, the Falcons, who were expected to contend for the Super Bowl, wasted an extremely valuable resource.

The Falcons also could have used a viable No. 2 receiver like Rome Odunze. Drake London has performed well as a former first-round pick despite playing with terrible quarterbacks. He’s expected to have the best season of his career, as is tight end Kyle Pitts, who has yet to reach his enormous potential. Atlanta didn’t have a viable second receiver last year, and that still may not be the case despite the $30 million it spent on Darnell Mooney. The former Bear had a quality season a couple of years ago, but hasn’t done anything since.

Of course, Atlanta’s most dangerous threat is Bijan Robinson. Former head coach Arthur Smith didn’t quite understand this because he insisted on giving touches to Cordarrelle Patterson instead. The Falcons’ new coaching staff will undoubtedly realize that Robinson needs as many touches as possible. Robinson could be in play for most yards from scrimmage this year.

The Falcons will have a quality offensive line blocking for Robinson. Their tackle tandem is outstanding, as Jake Matthews and Kaleb McGary will reprise their roles. There’s some age concern with Matthews, who turned 32 this offseason, but he showed no signs of slowing down last year. Conversely, McGary just keeps getting better each year.

The interior has some terrific blockers as well. Chris Lindstrom is one of the top guards in the entire league. Drew Dalman, a former fourth-round pick, made great strides last season and became one of the better centers in the NFL. The other guard, Matthew Bergeron, wasn’t nearly as good as Lindstrom or Dalman, but he was a second-round rookie. He has the potential to make big improvements to his game as well.



2024 Atlanta Falcons Defense:
Though the Falcons needed an elite pass rusher like Laiatu Latu, that’s not to say that they struggled to get to the quarterback last year. In fact, they were ranked 10th in pressure rate. However, Atlanta didn’t have a dynamic edge rusher who led the way with double-digit sacks. Instead, it was more of a collective effort to get to the quarterback, as three players logged either six or 6.5 sacks.

Two of those players, however, are not on the roster. One is Bud Dupree, as he’ll be replaced by 2023 third-rounder Zach Harrison, who didn’t do much as a rookie. The other is Calais Campbell, who signed with Miami in June. With Campbell gone, Atlanta will have a mediocre defensive front, as Harrison will be joined by David Onyemata and Grady Jarrett. The latter has been a mainstay on the Atlanta defensive line for quite some time, but missed the end of last season with an injury. Onyemata had an excellent first season with the Falcons after signing over from New Orleans.

The Falcons were able to get a decent pass rush from Arnold Ebiketie as well, though the sack number (6) didn’t quite show it. Still, the Falcons could have used Latu as a dynamic bookend for Ebiketie. Instead, it’ll be the mediocre Lorenzo Carter unless third-round rookie Bralen Trice pushes for the job.

Atlanta could always use Kaden Ellis as a starting edge rusher, though he’s currently slated to be an off-ball linebacker. Ellis is an extremely versatile player who can cover, rush the passer, and help in run support. He’ll start next to Nate Landman, who came out of nowhere last year as a former undrafted free agent to have an excellent season as a three-down player.

The Falcons are top-heavy in the secondary, so their lesser players could have really used a better pass rush to aid them. A.J. Terrell is a phenomenal cornerback, but there isn’t much across from him. Clark Phillips, a fourth-round pick from the 2023 NFL Draft, is the favorite to start, but he struggled as a rookie. Dee Alford is at least a solid nickel corner.

At safety, the Falcons are led by former Bengal Jessie Bates, who did not disappoint in his first season with the team. Bates was exceptional, but there’s some question as to who will start next to him. The options are DeMarcco Hellams and Richie Grant, both of whom struggled last year.





2024 Atlanta Falcons Schedule and Intangibles:
Matt Ryan was 58-39 at home. However, the Falcons have been a poor 44-47 as a host over the past 10 years, so perhaps the magic has vanished.

Master of the onside kick, Younghoe Koo was 32-of-37 last year. He hit just 3-of-6 from 50-plus.

Bradley Pinion was ranked in the middle of the pack in net punting last year, but did a good job of placing the ball inside the 20.

Atlanta has a balanced schedule. Two of its first three opponents are the Eagles and Chiefs, but there are plenty of easy opponents on the schedule as well.



2024 Atlanta Falcons Rookies:
Go here for the Falcons Rookie Forecast, a page with predictions like which rookie will bust and which rookie will become a solid starter.



2024 Atlanta Falcons Positional Rankings (1-5 stars):
Quarterbacks
Offensive Line
Secondary
Running Backs
Defensive Line
Special Teams
Receivers
Linebackers
Coaching


2024 Atlanta Falcons Analysis: The Falcons’ 2024 outlook rests on Kirk Cousins’ shoulders, or rather his healing Achilles. If Cousins is 100 percent, the Falcons will be the overwhelming favorite to win the worst division in the NFL. If not, then the NFC South will once again be up for grabs.

Update: I’ve upgraded the Falcons’ projected win total by two. They made a couple of terrific upgrades to their defense by trading for Matthew Judon and signing Justin Simmons.

Projection: 7-10 (1st in NFC South)

2023 Projection: 8-9. 2023 Actual Result: 7-10.
2022 Projection: 2-15. 2022 Actual Result: 7-10.
2021 Projection: 4-13. 2021 Actual Result: 7-10.
2020 Projection: 6-10. 2020 Actual Result: 4-12.
2019 Projection: 10-6. 2019 Actual Result: 7-9.
2018 Projection: 9-7. 2018 Actual Result: 7-9.
2017 Projection: 13-3. 2017 Actual Result: 10-6.
2016 Projection: 5-11. 2016 Actual Result: 11-5.

NFL Draft Team Grade:

MILLEN Grade

Goals Entering the 2024 NFL Draft: The Falcons eschewed all the quarterback prospects in this class by signing Kirk Cousins. The former Viking quarterback gives Atlanta a legitimate chances to make a deep run into the playoffs. There are still some issues, however, and most of them apply to the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons must improve their pass rush and cornerback group so they can battle the top offenses of the NFC.

2024 NFL Draft Accomplishments: “The Falcons eschewed all the quarterback prospects in this class by signing Kirk Cousins.” Yeah, so much for that. Atlanta made an inexplicably horrible decision to draft Michael Penix Jr. over Laiatu Latu at No. 8 overall. Giving Cousins a nine-figure deal indicated that the Falcons knew they are ready to win now. However, it seems as though they also want to build for the future. Having one foot in often leads to failure. Some will point out the “No Cookie” Jordan Love situation in Green Bay, but the Packers sabotaged a potential earlier Super Bowl victory by not giving Aaron Rodgers a weapon like Tee Higgins or Brandon Aiyuk. The Falcons will have similar failures in the playoffs without a talented edge rusher like Latu.

This was the beginning of a disastrous weekend for the Falcons. They followed up the awful Penix pick by needlessly trading for Ruke Orhorhoro. This was one of a few reaches the Falcons made. Five of their eight picks graded as a C+ or worse. Two were failures.

Atlanta easily had the worst draft class of all the teams in the league. The team ruined its chances of winning when it had a golden opportinity to strengthen the current roster with a dynamic edge rusher. When the team can’t stop Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff or Brock Purdy come January, they can point to this weekend as to why they ended up losing.

NFL Draft Individual Grades:


8. Michael Penix Jr., QB, Falcons – MILLEN Grade

Wow, the Falcons screwed this up. Why did they sign Kirk Cousins if they had plans to draft Michael Penix? Why draft Penix if they spent so much money on Cousins? By signing Cousins, they were going all in, but now they’re building toward the future? It makes no sense. This is an example of a bad owner meddling when he shouldn’t.


35. Ruke Orhorhoro, DT, Clemson – MILLEN Grade

Oh, man. The Falcons are not having a great draft. I tweeted that someone who knows Kirk Cousins very well told me that Cousins is “legit pissed,” but won’t make a stink about it because he’s a nice guy. If Cousins knows anything about the draft, he’ll be even angrier because this is not good value. Ruke Orhorhoro is not a reach, but he wasn’t worth trading a third-round pick for either. The Falcons don’t seem to understand how to use their resources.


74. Bralen Trice, DE, Washington – B Grade

The Falcons finally get their pass rusher after foolishly passing on Laiatu Latu. Bralen Trice is someone we had earlier in our mock ahead of the 2023 season, but he had a disappointing year. Perhaps the Falcons are buying low with him.


109. Brandon Dorlus, DT, Oregon – A+ Grade

The Falcons need to find as many talented defensive linemen as possible. Brandon Dorlus is definitely talented, as he’s someone I consistently had on Day 2 of my mock draft. This is a steal.


143. JD Bertrand, LB, Notre Dame – B+ Grade

JD Bertrand improved his draft stock in 2023 when showing improved coverage skills. He’s a tackling machine who should play two downs in the NFL at the very least. This is a solid pick, as Bertrand could have easily gone a round earlier.


186. Jase McClellan, RB, Alabama – C+ Grade

If Arthur Smith were still with the Falcons, he’d use Jase McClellan over Bijan Robinson. The Falcons have a crowded backfield, but McClellan is a solid value in the sixth round, as he could have gone in the fourth. However, I would have liked to have seen the Falcons strengthen other areas.


187. Casey Washington, WR, Illinois – C- Grade

The Falcons needed receiver depth, but they could have gotten someone better than this. Casey Washington was a UDFA prospect, so he shouldn’t have been taken this early.


197. Zion Logue, DT, Georgia – C Grade

Zion Logue was a backup at Georgia, so why is he being drafted in the sixth round? He was seen mostly as a UDFA, so this is a reach.



Season Summary:
The Falcons had a chance to win the division, but the incompetent Arthur Smith ruined things by leaning on lesser-talented players. Smith was correctly dismissed, so the Falcons will be better coached in 2024.






Offseason Moves:
  • Cardinals acquire QB Desmond Ridder from Falcons for WR Rondale Moore






    Team Needs:
    1. Quarterback: Desmond Ridder was a huge liability last year. The Falcons desperately need to find a better quarterback somehow. Signed Kirk Cousins

    2. Two Defensive Ends: The Falcons have had a big weakness at edge rusher for a long time. Calais Campbell helped last year, but he and Bud Dupree are impending free agents.

    3. Two Wide Receivers: Drake London is an excellent receiver, but Atlanta has nothing else at the position. Signed Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore

    4. Two Cornerbacks: A.J. Terrell is a terrific cornerback, but he’s the only viable player the Falcons have at the position. A new starter is needed across from him, and help is needed in the slot.

    5. Safety: Another safety should be acquired to play next to Jessie Bates.

    6. Guard: Atlanta has one weakness on the offensive line, which is at guard.




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    2024 NFL Free Agent Signings:





    Atlanta Falcons Free Agents:

    Salary Cap: TBA.




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