NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2024): 7-7-1 (-$975)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2024): 6-7-1 (-$1,275)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 6-6-1 (-$1,370)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2024): 11-4-1 (+$2,395)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2024): 8-7-1 (+$930)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2024): 7-8-1 (+$310)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2024): 10-6 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2024): 5-9-2 (-$125)
NFL Picks (Wildcard Round, 2024): 3-3 (-$620)
NFL Picks (Divisional Round, 2024): 3-1 (+$720)
2024 NFL Picks: 142-135-12 (-$2,775)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.
Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Washington Redskins (12-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Line: Eagles by 6. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Jan. 26, 3:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.
You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.
Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!
Week 20 Analysis: We had a good week. It was very close to being an amazing week. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:
Redskins, 3 units (win): This one was never in doubt. Thanks to Evan Daniel for talking me into increasing my unit count on the Redskins.
Eagles, 5 units (loss): Ugh. Jake Elliott. Had he hit one of his missed extra points, we would have pushed. Had he hit both, we would have covered and won $1,750 on the week. Of course, the Rams kicker didn’t miss any extra points… By the way, if you’re an Eagles bettor, consider sending an invoice to Elliott or his agent to recoup your losses.
Bills, 5 units (win): I’m still confused as to why the Ravens were favored in Buffalo. The Bills were running away with this game for a while. I considered middling at halftime, but didn’t see a number I liked. I thought we’d get a favorable line if Buffalo scored on the initial possession in the third quarter, but that didn’t happen.
HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:
Imagine being so completely wrong about everything. I guess mock draft accuracy is tough to check if you don’t know where to look, but the pick results are right on the page! Kurt Bozwell isn’t the brightest cookie in the toolbox.
In fairness, I wasn’t too bright:
When criticized for a bad opinion, just blame the brainworms. It works if you’re in school, too. Failed a test? When your parents begin yelling at you, just blame the brainworms!
Speaking of brainworms, some people believe that you can only do one thing at a time:
This guy must not be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. Why doesn’t he think that I can’t make picks and congratulate our former president and his gorgeous husband on a lovely picture?
PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I saw a prominent account on Twitter declare that there was no overarching narrative surrounding the Eagles if they were to win the Super Bowl. What about the revival of the NFL running back? Saquon Barkley was tremendous once again versus the Rams. Barkley, who could have easily broken Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record had he gone for it, exploded for 205 rushing yards and two touchdowns on Sunday.
Barkley has an even better matchup in this game. The Rams entered last weekend ranked eighth against the run. The Redskins are 20th. In a loss, Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 105 yards and two touchdowns on only 14 carries, so imagine what Barkley will be able to accomplish on greater volume.
Jalen Hurts is also a rushing threat, provided he’s healthy. Hurts injured his leg on an awkward tackle in the second half against the Rams and was a shell of his former self after that. However, reports indicate that the injury isn’t very concerning, though it remains to be seen how accurate that is. Hurts scrambled for 39 yards and a touchdown in his only full game against Washington this year.
WASHINGTON OFFENSE: If Hurts matches that rushing total, there’s a decent chance he could outgain Jayden Daniels on the ground. That may seem like an odd thing to say because Daniels was so prolific against the Lions on Saturday night. However, the Eagles, knowing how to clamp down on scrambling quarterbacks because of their experience versus Hurts in practice, limited Daniels to just 18 rushing yards in the initial matchup. Daniels had a better second performance, but there was a quit factor with the Eagles, who lost Hurts to injury in the first quarter.
The Eagles are great against the run in general. They rank first against it, though I’d expect a slight decline in effectiveness with Nakobe Dean sidelined. Still, this is a Philadelphia squad that put the clamps on Derrick Henry in a December matchup. Brian Robinson Jr., who has been underwhelming in far too many games this year, won’t get much on the ground.
Daniels will have to do everything himself, which was the case in the first matchup. Daniels was woeful in that game, going 22-of-32 for 191 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Those numbers don’t seem horrible, but keep in mind that they were enhanced by a garbage-time drive that featured Daniels’ touchdown to Zach Ertz. The Eagles have a stellar secondary that should get back Quinyon Mitchell from the injury he suffered against the Rams, so I don’t expect Daniels to play nearly as well as he did versus the porous Detroit defense on Saturday night.
RECAP: This is a rather simple handicap, save for one caveat. The Eagles closed -7 against the Rams, yet opened -4.5 against the Redskins. The Rams and Redskins are even teams – they are both Group B teams, and the hypothetical line between the two said as much – so why did the Eagles open -4.5 versus Washington when they closed -7 against the Rams?
This is classic public overreaction. Everyone wants to bet the Redskins because of what they saw Saturday night. The public is backing them at an extreme rate. Yet, everyone who is betting Washington has quickly forgotten that the Redskins would have lost to the Buccaneers had Baker Mayfield not fumbled on the end-around to Jalen McMillan, or if the Tampa center hadn’t botched the snap on a third down of Tampa’s final drive. The Redskins also had issues dispatching the Cowboys in the final week of the season despite going against Trey Lance. They also needed to go to overtime to beat the Falcons at home. They’re a good team, but they’re not a great team, and they do not belong in the NFC Championship.
Despite all of this, the public is betting the Redskins with poor line value. Fading such an overreaction and getting great line value is what handicapping the NFL is all about. This is as simple as it gets. The Eagles are a very easy five-unit play.
Except, for the one caveat. That would be Hurts’ health. We don’t quite know how injured he is. There are reports that the injury he suffered isn’t severe, but does that mean he’ll be 90 to 100 percent, or 60 to 70 percent for this game?
We’ll obviously be monitoring the practice reports throughout the week. If Hurts misses practices, or is limited all three days, it’ll be difficult to justify five units on Philadelphia. If, however, Hurts is able to practice fully most days, then we can wager a lot on the Eagles, who should beat the only non-Group A team in the final four.
Our Week 21 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some things from Philadelphia’s injury report: First, Jalen Hurts was limited. It’s obviously much better than a DNP. If we see a full from Hurts, I will lock in this pick. Second, Cam Jurgens was DNP on Wednesday with a back, which is something you never want to see from a starting center. And third, Dallas Goedert was DNP with an ankle. This isn’t ideal, but Goedert being sidelined wouldn’t affect my pick at all. As for the Redskins, Bobby Wagner and Da’Ron Payne were both DNP on Wednesday, so we’ll have to see if they return to practice on Thursday or Friday.
LOCKED IN: I said I was going to lock in the Eagles if I saw that Jalen Hurts was full in practice. That’s what we had on Thursday, so I’m going to lock in the -6 before this spread goes to -6.5. Six is such a key number, as we saw last week, so getting that number is a huge deal. The best line is -6 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.
PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Austin Ekeler has 26 and 41 receiving yards in two playoff games thus far. The Redskins won’t be able to run on the Eagles, so Ekeler catching passes out of the backfield will effectively be their rushing attack. Also, Sam Cosmi is out, so Jayden Daniels will have to get rid of the ball quickly with Philadelphia’s interior bearing down on him. The best number is over 24.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel.
We’re going to throw in the Ekeler receiving yards prop into a parlay with Saquon Barkley over 125.5 rushing yards, Kenneth Gainwell over 8.5 rushing yrds, and Terry McLaurin over 64.5 receiving yards. Barkley’s prop may seem high, but it won’t when he breaks off another long touchdown run. We had Gainwell in our winning parlay again, and I like him to once again reach double-digit rushing yards. McLaurin, meanwhile, could get the yardage in garbage time like Puka Nacua did last week. This $25 parlay pays $274.29 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
SATURDAY NOTES: Dallas Goedert will play after returning to a full practice on Friday. Cam Jurgens could be hurting; he’s questionable after being DNP-DNP-limited this week. Meanwhile, the Redskins are missing their top lineman, Sam Cosmi, and they could be without Da’Ron Payne, who didn’t practice at all this week. Bobby Wagner is off the injury report. This line hasn’t gotten to -6.5 yet, but I could see that happening soon.
MEGA SAME-GAME PARLAY+: Per Evan Daniel’s instruction – check the end of the video – I’m going to do a couple of multi-leg parlays for both games with some sides that should win. The first is an 11-leg parlay, which includes:
– Jayden Daniels 175+ passing yards
– Jayden Daniels 40+ rushing yards
– Terry McLaurin 40+ receiving yards
– Saquon Barkley 80+ rushing yards
– Josh Allen 175+ passing yards
– Josh Allen 25+ rushing yards
– Xavier Worthy 25+ receiving yards
– Khalil Shakir 25+ receiving yards
– Travis Kelce 50+ receiving yards
– James Cook 25+ rushing yards
– Bills +7.5 alt line
This $50 parlay is boosted 30 percent at FanDuel, and it pays $476.50.
The second mega parlay is similar, but has some changes:
– Jayden Daniels 200+ passing yards
– Jayden Daniels 40+ rushing yards
– Terry McLaurin 40+ receiving yards
– Saquon Barkley 90+ rushing yards
– Josh Allen 200+ passing yards
– Josh Allen 40+ rushing yards
– Xavier Worthy 25+ receiving yards
– Khalil Shakir 25+ receiving yards
– Travis Kelce 50+ receiving yards
– James Cook 40+ rushing yards
– Bills +7.5 alt line
– Josh Allen anytime touchdown
– Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown
This $50 parlay pays $1,780.53 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Cam Jurgens is active, but it’s unclear if he’s healthy at all. Meanwhile, the Redskins will be down Da’Ron Payne on top of Sam Cosmi, so their run defense will be even worse than usual. I thought this line would have gone to -6.5, but that didn’t occur, so locking in -6 early wasn’t necessary. The sharps simply haven’t touched the Eagles at -6 like they did at -4.5, -5, and -5.5. The best line is -6 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.
IN-GAME WAGER: Philadelphia’s center situation is troubling. I’m going to hedge/middle with the Redskins +10.5 -120 available at DraftKings for two units. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: Eagles.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -7.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -5.5.
Computer Model: Eagles -6.5.
The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
The Redskins are a public dog.
Percentage of money on Washington: 68% (376,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Eagles. Redskins are 24-35 ATS after a road win since 2000.
Opening Line: Eagles -4.5.
Opening Total: 48.
Weather: Partly cloudy, 39 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.
Week 21 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Redskins 17
Eagles -6 -108 (5 Units) – Locked in at Bookmaker — Correct; +$500
Player Prop: Austin Ekeler over 24.5 receiving yards -114 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$115
Same-Game Parlay: Austin Ekeler over 24.5 receiving yards, Saquon Barkley over 125.5 rushing yards, Kenneth Gainwell over 8.5 rushing yards, Terry McLaurin over 64.5 receiving yards (0.25 Units to win 2.75) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$25
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
In-Game: Redskins +10.5 -120 (2 Units) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$240
Eagles 55, Redskins 23
Buffalo Bills (13-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Line: Chiefs by 2. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Jan. 26, 6:30 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Bills.
My friend Drew passed away five weeks ago after a battle with cancer. He was a great guy and a huge Eagles fan. He was very much into fantasy football; he was commissioner of one of my fantasy leagues for two decades. He’s survived by his wife and three young kids (ages 12, 10, 6), who will grow up without their father. If you can, please consider donating to the family to help them through this difficult time. Here’s the GoFundMe page for Drew if you’re able to give any support.
On a much less serious note, this is a reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Toilet Nametag. I got another tooth extracted, and mayhem ensued.
This week on CBS, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:
Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas, home of the who the heck cares because I’m once again not covering my Philadelphia Eagles! Guys, this is an outrage! I’m the head honcho because I’m the play-by-play guy, and Mother says I’m the best, and yet the corporate heads won’t listen to me at all because I want to cover my Philadelphia Eagles, and they keep sending me to stupid games that don’t mean anything! Who even cares who wins this game!? It’s meaningless because they will lose to my Philadelphia Eagles!
Emmitt: Thanks, FuSoYa. All this talk about corporate head got me itching because head the opposite of tail on a coin, and I have a gambling problem betting the coin flop in football game. I has been in gambler ananimals for these, and I thinked I had it on control, but you saying the word head make me want to betted the coin flop again. Anybody want to take action? I gived you 2:1 odd on head because I has a real good feeling about tail. As the wise man once said, tail never wronged.
Reilly: Emmitt, are you aware of how much trouble I’ll be in if Mother catches me gambling? She’ll take away my Nick Foles bobbleheads and won’t serve me macaroni and cheese for dinner. She’ll probably make me eat something disgusting like broccoli! Eww! So don’t tempt me with your illegal gambling, Emmitt!
Tollefson: Reilly, I am a man of virtue, so I don’t believe in gambling either. I do love casinos, however, because women go there to get drunk and gamble. This makes them easy targets. When they wander away from slot machines, I follow them, and when no one’s looking, I place a bag over their head until they pass out. I then take them out of the casino, telling anyone who’s looking that they’ve had too much to drink. Before these women know it, they’re awakening in my cellar and serving me as their slave for the rest of their lives! But please, do not associate me with gambling. I am a man of God and will not stand for it.
Reilly: Tolly, tell me about it. Gambling is not allowed in the Reilly household. Mother even banned Yahtzee. Speaking Yahtzee, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!
Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. I’m reporting first that members of the Chiefs coaching staff have orally pleasured the officials and will be getting calls their way once again. No one beats Charissa Thompson reporting. Anyhoo, we are joined by our penultimate foreign leader, but he’s not a foreign leader. Donald Trump, what are you doing here? You’re President of the United States, and I’d like to report first that the United States has football games.
Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, wrong, wrong, I’m not just the President of the United States, the best president, by the way, and it’s not even close, frankly, or at least that’s what I’ve been told, but I come here today as the President of Greenland because we’ve just purchased Greenland, and we got a great deal by the way, the best deal anyone could have possibly gotten, frankly, because Sleepy Joe and Crooked Kamala probably would have paid billions and billions for Greenland, billions and billions that they would have taken away from the American people, but I got us a great deal, the best deal anyone has ever seen, and we did not spend billions and billions, we spent just billions on Greenland, and some people have come to me and said, “Sir! How did you get such a great deal on Greenland, it’s such an incredible deal, it’s the best deal anyone has ever seen,” and I tell them that it’s truly the greatest deal, no one can believe it, that we got Greenland on pennies on the dollar, when Sleepy Joe and Crooked Kamala would have spent billions and billions on the dollar.
Charissa Thompson: Sorry, I wasn’t listening. I heard something about billions. That was a good show until they went super woke. But please tell us, why should there be games in Greenland? I’ll try to listen this time.
Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, everyone should be listening to me because I am not only the President of the United States, but also the President of the Gulf of America, and the President of Greenland, which we will be re-naming to Orangeland, which is something everyone said was the best idea they ever heard, and I think it’s one of the best ideas to ever come out of anyone’s mouth, frankly, because orange is a much better color than green, unless you’re talking about money, which I have a lot of, but orange is a great color, too, which is why I dyed my skin orange at the tanning salon, which is something everyone should do because everyone’s complexion is much better when it’s orange, and everyone agrees, because that’s what everyone tells me, they say, “Sir, how did you get your skin so orange because it looks like the best skin anyone has ever seen,” and I tell them that it’s hard to get this orange hue, which is the best hue, and everyone agrees, and it’s much better than Sleepy Joe’s hue, which looks like zombie skin because Sleepy Joe is basically a walking corpse because he’s a total disgrace and a total fraud, and the worst president anyone has ever seen, much worse than Trump, who is the best president, and everyone agrees, or at least that’s what I’ve been told.
Reilly: Donld Trump, now that you’re president again, can you please get me to broadcast the Eagles games!? Please talk to the corporate heads!
Kamala Harris: First, let me say this: I grew up in a middle-class family. I have been unburdened by what has been, and I will be unburdened by what will be, and what has always been unburdened, and what will also be unburdened in an alternate timeline of unburdening. Second, am I hearing something about corporate heads? Kevin, I wanted to sleep with you to get to the top, but now I’m hearing that there are corporate heads that I can have sex with to get even higher on the food chain? Sign me up, baby, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA!
Joy Taylor: Get out of my way, Kamala! I’m younger than you, and I have bigger boobs. There’s no way the corporate heads would want to sleep with you over me. We may have lost our freedoms with Donald Trump taking over, but I can still sleep my way to the top better than anyone!
Kamala Harris: First, let me say this: I grew up in a middle-class family. When my middle-class daddy asked me what I want most, I said, “FWEEDOM.” Isn’t that great? When I was a child, I said I wanted “FWEEDOM” the most because as a child, I like freedom, but I said the ‘R’ with a ‘W’ because I was a child, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. But speaking of Trump, I didn’t think there was a point in sexual relations with him because I already rose very high in American politics, but now I’m seeing an opportunity to rise in Orangeland politics, so you looking pretty good, Donald, want to get drinks later? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
Joy Taylor: Donald Trump may have taken away all my freedoms in America, but not in Orangeland! President Donald, take me, so I can become the Princess of Orangeland!
Wolfley: LADIES, IF I MAY, THERE IS ALREADY A PRINCESS OF ORANGELAND. SHE IS A TUBE OF TOOTHPASTE WITH A PAPER SHREDDER FOR ARMS AND A DESK LAMP FOR LEGS, AND SHE IS THE GREATEST PRINCESS OF ORANGELAND HISTORY.
Reilly: Shut up, guys! New Daddy, it sounds like the women in the booth no longer have interest in me. What a relief! Mother said that if I held hands with someone before marriage, she would lock me in my room and throw away the key. I’m only a 73-year-old flower who hasn’t blossomed yet, according to Mother.
Jay Cutler: A 73-year-old weirdo, you mean.
Reilly: What was that, New Daddy? You mumbled so I didn’t hear you. You must have said I was the best son ever!
Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about members of family, Kevin. You mentioned son, Kevin, which you are to Jay Cutler, which is very weird, Kevin. Only a sick person would come up with something like that, Kevin. Let’s talk about brothers, Kevin. How about sisters, Kevin? What do you think about mothers, Kevin, because you’re a total mama’s boy, Kevin? Care to share about fathers, Kevin? Because your father walked out on you, Kevin. And then there’s bad touch uncles, Kevin, which you would be if you had a nephew or niece, Kevin.
Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I COULDN’T PROMISE NOT TO TOUCH ANYONE, BUT SAYING I’M A TOTAL MAMA’S BOY IN A NEGATIVE LIGHT IS VERY OFFENSIVE! SO WHAT IF I MASSAGE MOTHER’S FEET AND PAINT HER NAILS, AND REFUSE TO TOUCH WOMEN BECAUSE SHE SAYS SO!? THESE ARE ALL GOOD THINGS, AND YOU’RE JUST JEALOUS BECAUSE NO ONE LOVES YOU! We’ll be back after this!
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I didn’t think the Chiefs would have great success moving the chains against the Texans. Despite Kansas City’s victory, the team was outgained by Houston, 338-212. The Chiefs had some big plays, but they were rather inconsistent in their offensive success.
The reason I was pessimistic about Kansas City’s offense was the mismatch the Texans had with their terrific edge rushers against Kansas City’s poor offensive tackles. Patrick Mahomes took plenty of hits in the pocket, though he was bailed out by the officials on a couple of occasions. I expect Mahomes to be under duress again. The Bills don’t quite have the edge talent Houston possesses, but their ends can certainly get after the quarterback. Buffalo ranks 10th in pressure rate this season. I would expect Mahomes to get the ball out quickly and perhaps attack the slot, which has been a liability for the Bills. Xavier Worthy could thrive as a result.
The Bills have also played well against the run, at least since Matt Milano and some other defenders have returned from injury. Milano’s presence was huge in the rematch against the Ravens, as Derrick Henry didn’t quite trample over Buffalo’s defense for 199 yards like he did in the Week 4 matchup. The Chiefs obviously don’t run the ball nearly as well as Baltimore, so the Bills should be able to clamp down on Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt.
BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Chiefs also can shut down the run. Like the Bills (and also the Eagles), they rank in the top 10 against the rush. They also were able to stymie Henry, albeit in the season opener. They’ll do a better job against James Cook than Baltimore did Sunday evening.
Though the Chiefs can restrict running backs, asking them to stop scrambling quarterbacks is a different story. Allen was able to run circles around their defense in the regular-season win, scrambling for 55 yards and a touchdown on 12 runs. Kansas City was even worse against Lamar Jackson; the Baltimore quarterback scrambled for 122 yards in the opener. The Chiefs didn’t play any other mobile quarterbacks this season unless you want to count Bo Nix. Allen should be able to have a nice game on the ground.
Allen could succeed as a passer as well. The Chiefs had a pass-funnel defense this season. They were particularly weak against No. 2 receivers and tight ends. It’s difficult to trust Buffalo’s secondary threats after Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman were blanked in consecutive games, but Dalton Kincaid should have a strong performance.
RECAP: I wrote that the Eagles-Redskins game was a simple handicap. This game is a lot tougher. Unlike the NFC Championship, there is no disparity between the talent level of these teams. The Eagles are Group A, while the Redskins are Group B. In this game, both the Bills and Chiefs are Group A teams.
Because this is an evenly matched game, this line should be -1.5 or -2, given that home teams are awarded 1.5 or two points these days. I personally give 1.5 points to most home teams, so with the Chiefs getting one more half point for the extra day of rest, it would make sense that this line would be -2.
However, the matchups seem to favor the Bills. Kansas City’s troubles against mobile quarterbacks have to be worrying against Allen. I also don’t trust the Chiefs tackles to protect Mahomes.
I want to pick the Bills with confidence, but then I remember the officiating. The Chiefs always seem to benefit from one or two big calls in every big game, and there’s no reason to believe things will be any different in this contest.
I’m sorry if this flimsy analysis is disappointing, but I believe the AFC Championship will come down to one or two crucial calls, and I don’t trust Clete Blakeman to officiate this game fairly. I’m still going to be on the Bills because I like their matchup edges, but there’s no way I’m going to bet a lot on Buffalo when the fix could be in again.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This injury report is far less eventful than the Eagles-Redskins update, but there are a couple of noteworthy things. First, Taylor Rapp was DNP on Wednesday. I don’t think he’ll play. And second, Christian Benford was limited with a concussion. This is a positive development because there’s a much better chance he’ll be able to suit up than if he were DNP.
PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Chiefs are utterly atrocious against tight ends. Dawson Knox had 40 receiving yards in the first meeting when Dalton Kincaid was sidelined. Now, it’s Kincaid’s turn to have success against Kansas City. The best number is over 32.5 receiving yards -109 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
We’re going to throw in the Kincaid receiving yards prop into a same-game parlay with the following: Josh Allen over 47.5 rushing yards, Travis Kelce over 67.5 receiving yards, and DeAndre Hopkins under 23.5 receiving yards. The Chiefs struggle against mobile quarterbacks, and Allen rushed for 55 yards in the first meeting. Kelce is a monster in the playoffs, and I don’t see this game being any different. And Hopkins has disappeared since Marquise Brown returned to the lineup. He ran just 13 routes last week. This $25 parlay pays $260.93 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
SATURDAY NOTES: Bad news for the Bills: Christian Benford is unlikely to play after being downgraded in Friday’s practice from limited to DNP. Taylor Rapp is already out, so being down two members of the secondary against Patrick Mahomes isn’t ideal. The Chiefs, meanwhile, don’t have a single player on the injury report.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Christian Benford is active, which is huge for the Bills. I’m going to bet a unit on Buffalo, hoping that the team can take advantage of its two great matchups. The sharps have not touched this game. The best line is +1.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: None.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -2.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -1.5.
Computer Model: Chiefs -2.5.
The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
The Bills are a big public dog.
Percentage of money on Buffalo: 76% (432,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is 99-25 SU, 65-57 ATS (51-44 ATS when not favored by double digits.)
Opening Line: Pick.
Opening Total: 48.
Weather: Clear, 31 degrees. Light wind.
Week 21 NFL Pick: Bills 27, Chiefs 24
Bills +1.5 -108 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$110
Over 49.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Player Prop: Dalton Kincaid over 32.5 receiving yards -109 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$110
Same-Game Parlay: Dalton Kincaid over 32.5 receiving yards, Josh Allen over 47.5 rushing yards, Travis Kelce over 67.5 receiving yards, DeAndre Hopkins under 23.5 receiving yards (0.25 Units to win 2.6) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$25
Mega Parlay 1 (0.5 Units to win 4.75) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$50
Mega Parlay 2 (0.5 Units to win 17.8) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$50
Chiefs 32, Bills 29
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
NFL Picks - Sept. 11
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 7
2024 NFL Mock Draft - July 25
NFL Power Rankings - June 2
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2024): 7-7-1 (-$975)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2024): 6-7-1 (-$1,275)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 6-6-1 (-$1,370)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2024): 11-4-1 (+$2,395)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2024): 8-7-1 (+$930)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2024): 7-8-1 (+$310)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2024): 10-6 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2024): 5-9-2 (-$125)
NFL Picks (Wildcard Round, 2024): 3-3 (-$620)
NFL Picks (Divisional Round, 2024): 3-1 (+$720)
2024 NFL Picks: 142-135-12 (-$2,775)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.
Follow @walterfootball for updates.
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Washington Redskins (12-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Line: Eagles by 6. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Jan. 26, 3:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.
You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.
Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!
Week 20 Analysis: We had a good week. It was very close to being an amazing week. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:
Redskins, 3 units (win): This one was never in doubt. Thanks to Evan Daniel for talking me into increasing my unit count on the Redskins.
Eagles, 5 units (loss): Ugh. Jake Elliott. Had he hit one of his missed extra points, we would have pushed. Had he hit both, we would have covered and won $1,750 on the week. Of course, the Rams kicker didn’t miss any extra points… By the way, if you’re an Eagles bettor, consider sending an invoice to Elliott or his agent to recoup your losses.
Bills, 5 units (win): I’m still confused as to why the Ravens were favored in Buffalo. The Bills were running away with this game for a while. I considered middling at halftime, but didn’t see a number I liked. I thought we’d get a favorable line if Buffalo scored on the initial possession in the third quarter, but that didn’t happen.
HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:
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Imagine being so completely wrong about everything. I guess mock draft accuracy is tough to check if you don’t know where to look, but the pick results are right on the page! Kurt Bozwell isn’t the brightest cookie in the toolbox.
In fairness, I wasn’t too bright:
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When criticized for a bad opinion, just blame the brainworms. It works if you’re in school, too. Failed a test? When your parents begin yelling at you, just blame the brainworms!
Speaking of brainworms, some people believe that you can only do one thing at a time:
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This guy must not be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. Why doesn’t he think that I can’t make picks and congratulate our former president and his gorgeous husband on a lovely picture?
PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I saw a prominent account on Twitter declare that there was no overarching narrative surrounding the Eagles if they were to win the Super Bowl. What about the revival of the NFL running back? Saquon Barkley was tremendous once again versus the Rams. Barkley, who could have easily broken Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record had he gone for it, exploded for 205 rushing yards and two touchdowns on Sunday.
Barkley has an even better matchup in this game. The Rams entered last weekend ranked eighth against the run. The Redskins are 20th. In a loss, Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 105 yards and two touchdowns on only 14 carries, so imagine what Barkley will be able to accomplish on greater volume.
Jalen Hurts is also a rushing threat, provided he’s healthy. Hurts injured his leg on an awkward tackle in the second half against the Rams and was a shell of his former self after that. However, reports indicate that the injury isn’t very concerning, though it remains to be seen how accurate that is. Hurts scrambled for 39 yards and a touchdown in his only full game against Washington this year.
WASHINGTON OFFENSE: If Hurts matches that rushing total, there’s a decent chance he could outgain Jayden Daniels on the ground. That may seem like an odd thing to say because Daniels was so prolific against the Lions on Saturday night. However, the Eagles, knowing how to clamp down on scrambling quarterbacks because of their experience versus Hurts in practice, limited Daniels to just 18 rushing yards in the initial matchup. Daniels had a better second performance, but there was a quit factor with the Eagles, who lost Hurts to injury in the first quarter.
The Eagles are great against the run in general. They rank first against it, though I’d expect a slight decline in effectiveness with Nakobe Dean sidelined. Still, this is a Philadelphia squad that put the clamps on Derrick Henry in a December matchup. Brian Robinson Jr., who has been underwhelming in far too many games this year, won’t get much on the ground.
Daniels will have to do everything himself, which was the case in the first matchup. Daniels was woeful in that game, going 22-of-32 for 191 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Those numbers don’t seem horrible, but keep in mind that they were enhanced by a garbage-time drive that featured Daniels’ touchdown to Zach Ertz. The Eagles have a stellar secondary that should get back Quinyon Mitchell from the injury he suffered against the Rams, so I don’t expect Daniels to play nearly as well as he did versus the porous Detroit defense on Saturday night.
RECAP: This is a rather simple handicap, save for one caveat. The Eagles closed -7 against the Rams, yet opened -4.5 against the Redskins. The Rams and Redskins are even teams – they are both Group B teams, and the hypothetical line between the two said as much – so why did the Eagles open -4.5 versus Washington when they closed -7 against the Rams?
This is classic public overreaction. Everyone wants to bet the Redskins because of what they saw Saturday night. The public is backing them at an extreme rate. Yet, everyone who is betting Washington has quickly forgotten that the Redskins would have lost to the Buccaneers had Baker Mayfield not fumbled on the end-around to Jalen McMillan, or if the Tampa center hadn’t botched the snap on a third down of Tampa’s final drive. The Redskins also had issues dispatching the Cowboys in the final week of the season despite going against Trey Lance. They also needed to go to overtime to beat the Falcons at home. They’re a good team, but they’re not a great team, and they do not belong in the NFC Championship.
Despite all of this, the public is betting the Redskins with poor line value. Fading such an overreaction and getting great line value is what handicapping the NFL is all about. This is as simple as it gets. The Eagles are a very easy five-unit play.
Except, for the one caveat. That would be Hurts’ health. We don’t quite know how injured he is. There are reports that the injury he suffered isn’t severe, but does that mean he’ll be 90 to 100 percent, or 60 to 70 percent for this game?
We’ll obviously be monitoring the practice reports throughout the week. If Hurts misses practices, or is limited all three days, it’ll be difficult to justify five units on Philadelphia. If, however, Hurts is able to practice fully most days, then we can wager a lot on the Eagles, who should beat the only non-Group A team in the final four.
Our Week 21 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some things from Philadelphia’s injury report: First, Jalen Hurts was limited. It’s obviously much better than a DNP. If we see a full from Hurts, I will lock in this pick. Second, Cam Jurgens was DNP on Wednesday with a back, which is something you never want to see from a starting center. And third, Dallas Goedert was DNP with an ankle. This isn’t ideal, but Goedert being sidelined wouldn’t affect my pick at all. As for the Redskins, Bobby Wagner and Da’Ron Payne were both DNP on Wednesday, so we’ll have to see if they return to practice on Thursday or Friday.
LOCKED IN: I said I was going to lock in the Eagles if I saw that Jalen Hurts was full in practice. That’s what we had on Thursday, so I’m going to lock in the -6 before this spread goes to -6.5. Six is such a key number, as we saw last week, so getting that number is a huge deal. The best line is -6 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.
PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Austin Ekeler has 26 and 41 receiving yards in two playoff games thus far. The Redskins won’t be able to run on the Eagles, so Ekeler catching passes out of the backfield will effectively be their rushing attack. Also, Sam Cosmi is out, so Jayden Daniels will have to get rid of the ball quickly with Philadelphia’s interior bearing down on him. The best number is over 24.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel.
We’re going to throw in the Ekeler receiving yards prop into a parlay with Saquon Barkley over 125.5 rushing yards, Kenneth Gainwell over 8.5 rushing yrds, and Terry McLaurin over 64.5 receiving yards. Barkley’s prop may seem high, but it won’t when he breaks off another long touchdown run. We had Gainwell in our winning parlay again, and I like him to once again reach double-digit rushing yards. McLaurin, meanwhile, could get the yardage in garbage time like Puka Nacua did last week. This $25 parlay pays $274.29 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
SATURDAY NOTES: Dallas Goedert will play after returning to a full practice on Friday. Cam Jurgens could be hurting; he’s questionable after being DNP-DNP-limited this week. Meanwhile, the Redskins are missing their top lineman, Sam Cosmi, and they could be without Da’Ron Payne, who didn’t practice at all this week. Bobby Wagner is off the injury report. This line hasn’t gotten to -6.5 yet, but I could see that happening soon.
MEGA SAME-GAME PARLAY+: Per Evan Daniel’s instruction – check the end of the video – I’m going to do a couple of multi-leg parlays for both games with some sides that should win. The first is an 11-leg parlay, which includes:
– Jayden Daniels 175+ passing yards
– Jayden Daniels 40+ rushing yards
– Terry McLaurin 40+ receiving yards
– Saquon Barkley 80+ rushing yards
– Josh Allen 175+ passing yards
– Josh Allen 25+ rushing yards
– Xavier Worthy 25+ receiving yards
– Khalil Shakir 25+ receiving yards
– Travis Kelce 50+ receiving yards
– James Cook 25+ rushing yards
– Bills +7.5 alt line
This $50 parlay is boosted 30 percent at FanDuel, and it pays $476.50.
The second mega parlay is similar, but has some changes:
– Jayden Daniels 200+ passing yards
– Jayden Daniels 40+ rushing yards
– Terry McLaurin 40+ receiving yards
– Saquon Barkley 90+ rushing yards
– Josh Allen 200+ passing yards
– Josh Allen 40+ rushing yards
– Xavier Worthy 25+ receiving yards
– Khalil Shakir 25+ receiving yards
– Travis Kelce 50+ receiving yards
– James Cook 40+ rushing yards
– Bills +7.5 alt line
– Josh Allen anytime touchdown
– Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown
This $50 parlay pays $1,780.53 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Cam Jurgens is active, but it’s unclear if he’s healthy at all. Meanwhile, the Redskins will be down Da’Ron Payne on top of Sam Cosmi, so their run defense will be even worse than usual. I thought this line would have gone to -6.5, but that didn’t occur, so locking in -6 early wasn’t necessary. The sharps simply haven’t touched the Eagles at -6 like they did at -4.5, -5, and -5.5. The best line is -6 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.
IN-GAME WAGER: Philadelphia’s center situation is troubling. I’m going to hedge/middle with the Redskins +10.5 -120 available at DraftKings for two units. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: Eagles.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -7.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -5.5.
Computer Model: Eagles -6.5.
The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
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The Redskins are a public dog.
Percentage of money on Washington: 68% (376,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
Week 21 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Redskins 17
Eagles -6 -108 (5 Units) – Locked in at Bookmaker — Correct; +$500
Player Prop: Austin Ekeler over 24.5 receiving yards -114 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$115
Same-Game Parlay: Austin Ekeler over 24.5 receiving yards, Saquon Barkley over 125.5 rushing yards, Kenneth Gainwell over 8.5 rushing yards, Terry McLaurin over 64.5 receiving yards (0.25 Units to win 2.75) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$25
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
In-Game: Redskins +10.5 -120 (2 Units) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$240
Eagles 55, Redskins 23
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Buffalo Bills (13-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Line: Chiefs by 2. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Jan. 26, 6:30 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Bills.
My friend Drew passed away five weeks ago after a battle with cancer. He was a great guy and a huge Eagles fan. He was very much into fantasy football; he was commissioner of one of my fantasy leagues for two decades. He’s survived by his wife and three young kids (ages 12, 10, 6), who will grow up without their father. If you can, please consider donating to the family to help them through this difficult time. Here’s the GoFundMe page for Drew if you’re able to give any support.
On a much less serious note, this is a reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Toilet Nametag. I got another tooth extracted, and mayhem ensued.
This week on CBS, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:
Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas, home of the who the heck cares because I’m once again not covering my Philadelphia Eagles! Guys, this is an outrage! I’m the head honcho because I’m the play-by-play guy, and Mother says I’m the best, and yet the corporate heads won’t listen to me at all because I want to cover my Philadelphia Eagles, and they keep sending me to stupid games that don’t mean anything! Who even cares who wins this game!? It’s meaningless because they will lose to my Philadelphia Eagles!
Emmitt: Thanks, FuSoYa. All this talk about corporate head got me itching because head the opposite of tail on a coin, and I have a gambling problem betting the coin flop in football game. I has been in gambler ananimals for these, and I thinked I had it on control, but you saying the word head make me want to betted the coin flop again. Anybody want to take action? I gived you 2:1 odd on head because I has a real good feeling about tail. As the wise man once said, tail never wronged.
Reilly: Emmitt, are you aware of how much trouble I’ll be in if Mother catches me gambling? She’ll take away my Nick Foles bobbleheads and won’t serve me macaroni and cheese for dinner. She’ll probably make me eat something disgusting like broccoli! Eww! So don’t tempt me with your illegal gambling, Emmitt!
Tollefson: Reilly, I am a man of virtue, so I don’t believe in gambling either. I do love casinos, however, because women go there to get drunk and gamble. This makes them easy targets. When they wander away from slot machines, I follow them, and when no one’s looking, I place a bag over their head until they pass out. I then take them out of the casino, telling anyone who’s looking that they’ve had too much to drink. Before these women know it, they’re awakening in my cellar and serving me as their slave for the rest of their lives! But please, do not associate me with gambling. I am a man of God and will not stand for it.
Reilly: Tolly, tell me about it. Gambling is not allowed in the Reilly household. Mother even banned Yahtzee. Speaking Yahtzee, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!
Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. I’m reporting first that members of the Chiefs coaching staff have orally pleasured the officials and will be getting calls their way once again. No one beats Charissa Thompson reporting. Anyhoo, we are joined by our penultimate foreign leader, but he’s not a foreign leader. Donald Trump, what are you doing here? You’re President of the United States, and I’d like to report first that the United States has football games.
Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, wrong, wrong, I’m not just the President of the United States, the best president, by the way, and it’s not even close, frankly, or at least that’s what I’ve been told, but I come here today as the President of Greenland because we’ve just purchased Greenland, and we got a great deal by the way, the best deal anyone could have possibly gotten, frankly, because Sleepy Joe and Crooked Kamala probably would have paid billions and billions for Greenland, billions and billions that they would have taken away from the American people, but I got us a great deal, the best deal anyone has ever seen, and we did not spend billions and billions, we spent just billions on Greenland, and some people have come to me and said, “Sir! How did you get such a great deal on Greenland, it’s such an incredible deal, it’s the best deal anyone has ever seen,” and I tell them that it’s truly the greatest deal, no one can believe it, that we got Greenland on pennies on the dollar, when Sleepy Joe and Crooked Kamala would have spent billions and billions on the dollar.
Charissa Thompson: Sorry, I wasn’t listening. I heard something about billions. That was a good show until they went super woke. But please tell us, why should there be games in Greenland? I’ll try to listen this time.
Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, everyone should be listening to me because I am not only the President of the United States, but also the President of the Gulf of America, and the President of Greenland, which we will be re-naming to Orangeland, which is something everyone said was the best idea they ever heard, and I think it’s one of the best ideas to ever come out of anyone’s mouth, frankly, because orange is a much better color than green, unless you’re talking about money, which I have a lot of, but orange is a great color, too, which is why I dyed my skin orange at the tanning salon, which is something everyone should do because everyone’s complexion is much better when it’s orange, and everyone agrees, because that’s what everyone tells me, they say, “Sir, how did you get your skin so orange because it looks like the best skin anyone has ever seen,” and I tell them that it’s hard to get this orange hue, which is the best hue, and everyone agrees, and it’s much better than Sleepy Joe’s hue, which looks like zombie skin because Sleepy Joe is basically a walking corpse because he’s a total disgrace and a total fraud, and the worst president anyone has ever seen, much worse than Trump, who is the best president, and everyone agrees, or at least that’s what I’ve been told.
Reilly: Donld Trump, now that you’re president again, can you please get me to broadcast the Eagles games!? Please talk to the corporate heads!
Kamala Harris: First, let me say this: I grew up in a middle-class family. I have been unburdened by what has been, and I will be unburdened by what will be, and what has always been unburdened, and what will also be unburdened in an alternate timeline of unburdening. Second, am I hearing something about corporate heads? Kevin, I wanted to sleep with you to get to the top, but now I’m hearing that there are corporate heads that I can have sex with to get even higher on the food chain? Sign me up, baby, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA!
Joy Taylor: Get out of my way, Kamala! I’m younger than you, and I have bigger boobs. There’s no way the corporate heads would want to sleep with you over me. We may have lost our freedoms with Donald Trump taking over, but I can still sleep my way to the top better than anyone!
Kamala Harris: First, let me say this: I grew up in a middle-class family. When my middle-class daddy asked me what I want most, I said, “FWEEDOM.” Isn’t that great? When I was a child, I said I wanted “FWEEDOM” the most because as a child, I like freedom, but I said the ‘R’ with a ‘W’ because I was a child, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. But speaking of Trump, I didn’t think there was a point in sexual relations with him because I already rose very high in American politics, but now I’m seeing an opportunity to rise in Orangeland politics, so you looking pretty good, Donald, want to get drinks later? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
Joy Taylor: Donald Trump may have taken away all my freedoms in America, but not in Orangeland! President Donald, take me, so I can become the Princess of Orangeland!
Wolfley: LADIES, IF I MAY, THERE IS ALREADY A PRINCESS OF ORANGELAND. SHE IS A TUBE OF TOOTHPASTE WITH A PAPER SHREDDER FOR ARMS AND A DESK LAMP FOR LEGS, AND SHE IS THE GREATEST PRINCESS OF ORANGELAND HISTORY.
Reilly: Shut up, guys! New Daddy, it sounds like the women in the booth no longer have interest in me. What a relief! Mother said that if I held hands with someone before marriage, she would lock me in my room and throw away the key. I’m only a 73-year-old flower who hasn’t blossomed yet, according to Mother.
Jay Cutler: A 73-year-old weirdo, you mean.
Reilly: What was that, New Daddy? You mumbled so I didn’t hear you. You must have said I was the best son ever!
Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about members of family, Kevin. You mentioned son, Kevin, which you are to Jay Cutler, which is very weird, Kevin. Only a sick person would come up with something like that, Kevin. Let’s talk about brothers, Kevin. How about sisters, Kevin? What do you think about mothers, Kevin, because you’re a total mama’s boy, Kevin? Care to share about fathers, Kevin? Because your father walked out on you, Kevin. And then there’s bad touch uncles, Kevin, which you would be if you had a nephew or niece, Kevin.
Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I COULDN’T PROMISE NOT TO TOUCH ANYONE, BUT SAYING I’M A TOTAL MAMA’S BOY IN A NEGATIVE LIGHT IS VERY OFFENSIVE! SO WHAT IF I MASSAGE MOTHER’S FEET AND PAINT HER NAILS, AND REFUSE TO TOUCH WOMEN BECAUSE SHE SAYS SO!? THESE ARE ALL GOOD THINGS, AND YOU’RE JUST JEALOUS BECAUSE NO ONE LOVES YOU! We’ll be back after this!
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I didn’t think the Chiefs would have great success moving the chains against the Texans. Despite Kansas City’s victory, the team was outgained by Houston, 338-212. The Chiefs had some big plays, but they were rather inconsistent in their offensive success.
The reason I was pessimistic about Kansas City’s offense was the mismatch the Texans had with their terrific edge rushers against Kansas City’s poor offensive tackles. Patrick Mahomes took plenty of hits in the pocket, though he was bailed out by the officials on a couple of occasions. I expect Mahomes to be under duress again. The Bills don’t quite have the edge talent Houston possesses, but their ends can certainly get after the quarterback. Buffalo ranks 10th in pressure rate this season. I would expect Mahomes to get the ball out quickly and perhaps attack the slot, which has been a liability for the Bills. Xavier Worthy could thrive as a result.
The Bills have also played well against the run, at least since Matt Milano and some other defenders have returned from injury. Milano’s presence was huge in the rematch against the Ravens, as Derrick Henry didn’t quite trample over Buffalo’s defense for 199 yards like he did in the Week 4 matchup. The Chiefs obviously don’t run the ball nearly as well as Baltimore, so the Bills should be able to clamp down on Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt.
BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Chiefs also can shut down the run. Like the Bills (and also the Eagles), they rank in the top 10 against the rush. They also were able to stymie Henry, albeit in the season opener. They’ll do a better job against James Cook than Baltimore did Sunday evening.
Though the Chiefs can restrict running backs, asking them to stop scrambling quarterbacks is a different story. Allen was able to run circles around their defense in the regular-season win, scrambling for 55 yards and a touchdown on 12 runs. Kansas City was even worse against Lamar Jackson; the Baltimore quarterback scrambled for 122 yards in the opener. The Chiefs didn’t play any other mobile quarterbacks this season unless you want to count Bo Nix. Allen should be able to have a nice game on the ground.
Allen could succeed as a passer as well. The Chiefs had a pass-funnel defense this season. They were particularly weak against No. 2 receivers and tight ends. It’s difficult to trust Buffalo’s secondary threats after Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman were blanked in consecutive games, but Dalton Kincaid should have a strong performance.
RECAP: I wrote that the Eagles-Redskins game was a simple handicap. This game is a lot tougher. Unlike the NFC Championship, there is no disparity between the talent level of these teams. The Eagles are Group A, while the Redskins are Group B. In this game, both the Bills and Chiefs are Group A teams.
Because this is an evenly matched game, this line should be -1.5 or -2, given that home teams are awarded 1.5 or two points these days. I personally give 1.5 points to most home teams, so with the Chiefs getting one more half point for the extra day of rest, it would make sense that this line would be -2.
However, the matchups seem to favor the Bills. Kansas City’s troubles against mobile quarterbacks have to be worrying against Allen. I also don’t trust the Chiefs tackles to protect Mahomes.
I want to pick the Bills with confidence, but then I remember the officiating. The Chiefs always seem to benefit from one or two big calls in every big game, and there’s no reason to believe things will be any different in this contest.
I’m sorry if this flimsy analysis is disappointing, but I believe the AFC Championship will come down to one or two crucial calls, and I don’t trust Clete Blakeman to officiate this game fairly. I’m still going to be on the Bills because I like their matchup edges, but there’s no way I’m going to bet a lot on Buffalo when the fix could be in again.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This injury report is far less eventful than the Eagles-Redskins update, but there are a couple of noteworthy things. First, Taylor Rapp was DNP on Wednesday. I don’t think he’ll play. And second, Christian Benford was limited with a concussion. This is a positive development because there’s a much better chance he’ll be able to suit up than if he were DNP.
PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Chiefs are utterly atrocious against tight ends. Dawson Knox had 40 receiving yards in the first meeting when Dalton Kincaid was sidelined. Now, it’s Kincaid’s turn to have success against Kansas City. The best number is over 32.5 receiving yards -109 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
We’re going to throw in the Kincaid receiving yards prop into a same-game parlay with the following: Josh Allen over 47.5 rushing yards, Travis Kelce over 67.5 receiving yards, and DeAndre Hopkins under 23.5 receiving yards. The Chiefs struggle against mobile quarterbacks, and Allen rushed for 55 yards in the first meeting. Kelce is a monster in the playoffs, and I don’t see this game being any different. And Hopkins has disappeared since Marquise Brown returned to the lineup. He ran just 13 routes last week. This $25 parlay pays $260.93 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
SATURDAY NOTES: Bad news for the Bills: Christian Benford is unlikely to play after being downgraded in Friday’s practice from limited to DNP. Taylor Rapp is already out, so being down two members of the secondary against Patrick Mahomes isn’t ideal. The Chiefs, meanwhile, don’t have a single player on the injury report.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Christian Benford is active, which is huge for the Bills. I’m going to bet a unit on Buffalo, hoping that the team can take advantage of its two great matchups. The sharps have not touched this game. The best line is +1.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: None.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -2.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -1.5.
Computer Model: Chiefs -2.5.
The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
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The Bills are a big public dog.
Percentage of money on Buffalo: 76% (432,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
Week 21 NFL Pick: Bills 27, Chiefs 24
Bills +1.5 -108 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$110
Over 49.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Player Prop: Dalton Kincaid over 32.5 receiving yards -109 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$110
Same-Game Parlay: Dalton Kincaid over 32.5 receiving yards, Josh Allen over 47.5 rushing yards, Travis Kelce over 67.5 receiving yards, DeAndre Hopkins under 23.5 receiving yards (0.25 Units to win 2.6) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$25
Mega Parlay 1 (0.5 Units to win 4.75) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$50
Mega Parlay 2 (0.5 Units to win 17.8) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$50
Chiefs 32, Bills 29
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Comments on the 2024 NFL Season’s Games and Picks
NFL Picks - Sept. 11
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 7
2024 NFL Mock Draft - July 25
NFL Power Rankings - June 2
Review Walt’s Past Record Picking Games
On the bottom half of our NFL Weekly Lander page is the history of picks Walt maintains. Walt’s Results