NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2023 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2023): 6-8-1 (-$2,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2023): 5-10-1 (-$1,295)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2023): 5-9 (-$935)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2023): 7-6 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2023): 5-9 ($0)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2023): 13-2-1 (+$1,960)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2023): 6-7 (-$115)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2023): 7-7-1 (+$740)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$120)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2023): 7-8-1 (-$800)
2023 NFL Picks: 119-121-10 (-$7,000)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 31, 11:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

Week 16 Analysis: We had a slightly winning week entering Christmas. We were up well enough on the picks, but the props hurt us with some players getting hurt or barely missing the number. Then, Christmas happened. Ugh. I’ll once again break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Browns, 4 units (win): I wish they were all this easy! The Browns covered without a sweat despite allowing a kickoff return touchdown.

Vikings, 5 units (loss): This one came down to the wire. The Vikings losing T.J. Hockenson really hurt because I thought that was a way they’d be able to attack the Lions rather easily.

Bears, 4 units (win): Another easy four-unit play. The Bears covered without any stress despite seeing D.J. Moore get banged up and Cole Kmet leave the game permanently.

Eagles, 3 units (loss): The Eagles were up 20-3 at halftime. Then, of course, they had to allow two defensive touchdowns. No way their defense could get the touchdowns when we were betting on them, right?

49ers, 3 units (loss): The 49ers outgained the Ravens in net yards and yards per play, but they lost by two touchdowns because Brock Purdy decided to randomly throw four interceptions. Merry Christmas!

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Joe Flacco has been incredible for the Browns. He torched the Texans last week, as Amari Cooper looked like he was going to break the single-game receiving yards record at one point in the third quarter.

This, however, will be a tougher matchup for Flacco. The Jets thrive against the pass. Their secondary is equipped to slow down Cooper and David Njoku. They also have a talented defensive line that should be able to win in the trenches versus a Cleveland front missing some personnel.

The weakness of the Jets defense is its inability to stop the run. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt will have some nice gains, but this doesn’t really seem like an area the Browns can fully exploit because they don’t run the ball overly effectively.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I imagine Zach Wilson will return this week. Wilson missed the Washington contest with a concussion, so he figures to be back from his one-game absence. Wilson obviously is not a very good quarterback, but he’s much better than the alternatives.

To be fair to Wilson, he doesn’t have much of a chance behind his offensive line. The Jets have one of the worst blocking units in the NFL, which will spell trouble against the Browns. Cleveland has an elite pass rush and will be able to rattle Wilson and force him into mistakes.

Unlike the Jets, the Browns can also stop the run. Breece Hall is coming off a great performance, but he’ll be limited this week. Cleveland is in the top 10 of limiting opposing running backs.

RECAP: The Browns have a tough offensive matchup, but as tough as it is, it’s nowhere near as difficult when compared to what the Jets will face. If New York could block, it would have a chance to pull the upset, but that hasn’t been the case all year.

Given that the Browns don’t have the best offensive matchup, I think I would be inclined to side with the Jets if this were a Sunday game. However, this will take place on Thursday, which means the better team will have a big advantage, as the lesser foe won’t have enough practice time to contend with the favorite. If there’s a big disparity between the two teams, the favorite often covers on Thursday night for a reason.

Our Week 17 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some sharp money on the Browns moved this line to -7.5. Something to watch out for is Amari Cooper’s status. Cooper missed practice all week and is listed as questionable. If he can’t go, I won’t be betting the Browns, but I have no desire to bet the Jets either.

PLAYER PROP: It’s been a while since Jerome Ford has enjoyed a positive matchup. The last time this has happened was Week 12 when he rushed for 65 yards on just nine carries. He was given 15 attempts last week. If he gets 15 carries against the Jets’ run-funnel defense, I’m confident he’ll crack 44.5 rushing yards. The best number is over 44.5 -110 at FanDuel.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going to toss in Jerome Ford 50+ rushing yards with the following: David Njoku 5+ receptions, Breece Hall 5+ receptions, and Jets under 12.5 total points. Amari Cooper is banged up, and the Jets cover receivers extremely well anyway. They’re worse against tight ends, and Njoku has been a receptions machine with Joe Flacco. Hall has also been a receptions machine with Trevor Siemian. And I don’t expect the Jets to have any sort of offensive production with Siemian going against an elite defense. This parlay pays out +982 and was done on FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Amari Cooper is out, so I’m going to drop the unit count to one. I still like the Browns to dominate the Jets offense, but no Cooper will make scoring much more difficult. The sharps aren’t touching this game. The best line is -7 -104 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Browns -10.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Browns -5.5.

Computer Model: Browns -8.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 58% (452,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Kevin Stefanski is 13-20 ATS as a favorite.

Opening Line: Browns -7.

Opening Total: 36.5.

Weather: .

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

DALLAS OFFENSE: A matchup against Detroit’s defense is easy to assess. The Lions are very stout against the run. However, given all of the injuries they’ve suffered in the secondary, they’ve become extremely pass funnel in every regard. They can’t defend outside receivers, slot receivers, or tight ends. The Vikings losing T.J. Hockenson prevented them from exploiting the latter weakness.

The Cowboys have a healthy Jake Ferguson to attack the Lions over the middle of the field. Brandin Cooks can burn them as well. And of course, there’s CeeDee Lamb, who figures to have a great game.

One thing to note is that if the Cowboys establish a lead, they’ll have trouble chewing away at the clock if they try to run the ball. No team has allowed fewer rushing yards than the Lions.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The rankings say that the Cowboys have a mediocre run defense, but they’ve been so far ahead in some games that teams simply haven’t been able to run on them very much. However, they’ve surrendered some big rushing performances in their close games.

The Lions should love hearing that because Dan Campbell would love nothing more than to pound the ball with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Gibbs has been terrific recently since his worrisome start in September. He could explode for some big gains.

Unfortunately for Detroit, it’s not all rosy on this side of the ball. The Cowboys, while weak to outside receivers, thrive at defending slot receivers and tight ends. These areas are the primary focus of the Lions defense, as Jared Goff loves throwing to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.

RECAP: The Cowboys have some strong edges in this game. They’ll be able to throw all over Detroit’s sorry secondary, and they’ll also be able to slow down St. Brown and LaPorta. Defending the run is a different story, but if they jump out to a big lead, Detroit won’t be able to utilize that aspect of its offense.

I’d like the Cowboys if this spread were more reasonable. For example, the EPA metrics say this line should be -3. However, covering -6 is a big ask, especially when Goff is more than capable of engineering drives in garbage time to achieve a back-door cover. I’m still going to be on Dallas, but I won’t be betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Taylor Decker saw a downgrade in practice on Thursday, going from limited to DNP. If he’s out, the Lions are going to have big problems blocking Dallas’ pass rush.

SATURDAY NOTES: Taylor Decker is good to go, so I have no interest in betting this game. I’d still lean toward Dallas because of the passing edge versus the Detroit secondary, but this spread seems inflated to compensate for that.

PLAYER PROPS: I like Brandin Cooks in this game. The Lions allow the eighth-most production to outside wide receivers, and 40.5 yards seems very reasonable. The best line is over 40.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going to throw in Brandin Cooks 50+ receiving yards with Jahmyr Gibbs 4+ receptions, CeeDee Lamb 90+ receiving yards, and anytime touchdown for Lamb. The Lions figure to be behind, so I could see plenty of dump-offs to Gibbs. Meanwhile, Lamb will dominate Detroit’s poor secondary. This parlay pays out +857, and it was made on FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s sharp money coming in on the Lions and dragging this line down. I get it, but I can also make a case for the Cowboys. I’m just not going to bet this game outside of the props and same-game parlay. If you like the Cowboys, you can find -4.5 -105 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -5.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 58% (483,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Dan Campbell is 16-4 ATS as an underdog of 4+.

Dak Prescott is 38-27 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Cowboys -6.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year, and they are now 28-26 ATS.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Rams -4

Bills -13

Eagles -13.5

The public split on Thursday/Saturday. The Eagles ruined Christmas for everyone.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Rams -6

49ers -13

Colts -3

Two road favorites at the top isn’t a surprise. Colts -3 is, however.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I thought the Ravens would have trouble moving the chains against the 49ers because of the tackle play. Ronnie Stanley is not 100 percent, so Nick Bosa and Chase Young going against the Baltimore tackles seemed like a big mismatch. As it turns out, none of this mattered because Brock Purdy gave the game away with four interceptions.

The Dolphins also have the horses to bother Jackson. Miami actually ranks ahead of San Francisco in pressure rate at No. 2 overall in this category. We’ve seen Jackson get flustered by heavy pressure at times this year, most recently against the Jaguars, whom the Ravens struggled to put away until late despite Jacksonville being an absolute dumpster fire right now.

Thanks to Jalen Ramsey, the Dolphins also cover well. They’re No. 2 against slot receivers, and they are ranked in the middle of the pack when it comes to defending outside receivers and tight ends. They also happen to be ranked No. 6 at surrendering rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, so it’s fair to expect Jackson not to have his best game.

MIAMI OFFENSE: I worried about the Baltimore cornerbacks in the San Francisco matchup as well. The Ravens are below average versus outside receivers and in the bottom 10 against slot receivers, so it wasn’t a surprise to see Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle thrive. Purdy, however, ensured that the 49ers wouldn’t be able to win.

Purdy saw lots of pressure against the Ravens, which could end up being Tua Tagovailoa’s fate as well. The Dolphins have a banged-up offensive line missing multiple starters at the moment. Baltimore could harass Tagovailoa and force some quick throws.

I’m sure the Dolphins would love to just establish Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane to keep Tagovailoa safe. The Ravens are slightly above average against the run, but we just saw Christian McCaffrey exceed the century mark on the ground. With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle drawing so much attention, Baltimore could surrender more yardage to Mostert and Achane than expected.

RECAP: This is a battle for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but I wonder if the Ravens could be a bit flat after defeating the 49ers. They were big underdogs in that game, but they’re now favored. Lamar Jackson is 11-1 against the spread as an underdog in his career, but he doesn’t do nearly as well as a favorite. Excluding Week 1 when John Harbaugh teams have such a big advantage, Jackson is just 9-19 against the spread when favored by 3.5 or more.

I think the reasoning behind this is that the Ravens are sometimes overhyped because of Jackson. That appears to be the case in this game, as everyone wants to bet on Baltimore after what they saw on Christmas night. This has caused the line to move off the advance spread of -3 to -4, even though the Dolphins are coming off a big win themselves!

I like the value with the Dolphins. This should be a close game, and I think the most likely result of it is Baltimore winning by three.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s sounding like Jaylen Waddle may miss this game. I think I’d still like the Dolphins in that case, but the unit count would be capped at two.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams have complicated injury reports. Jaylen Waddle is out, as are two starting offensive linemen for Miami. Then, there’s the secondary, where Jalen Ramsey had a Friday downgrade. Jevon Holland and Xavien Howard were both limited all week, as were several other members of the offensive line. I imagine these players will play, but there’s big risk involved if you bet the Dolphins now and wait for the inactives list on Sunday morning. Meanwhile, the Ravens may not have Zay Flowers, who was DNP-DNP-limited in practice this week. The Ravens could also be missing two key players in their secondary – Kyle Hamilton, Brandon Stephens – which seems perilous against Tyreek Hill. I’m tentatively on the Dolphins for two units, but the inactives list could change this selection.

PLAYER PROPS: Cedrick Wilson just had a 42-yard game against Dallas. He should be able to clear 32.5 receiving yards against the Ravens, who allow the fifth-most production to wide receivers, especially with Jaylen Waddle sidelined. The best number is over 32.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kevin Zeitler is out for Baltimore, which is a big deal, considering how good Miami’s pass rush is. There’s no sharp money on this game. I still like the Dolphins a bit at +3.5. The best vig is -120 at Bookmaker and DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Dolphins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.

Computer Model: Ravens -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 56% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Dolphins are 28-17 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Lamar Jackson is 9-19 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 51 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. I heard from some Buccaneers fans because I got their win total “wrong:”

Another example of this is from @NFLosophy, who obsesses over me. We had an argument about the Buccaneers in the summer, which I completely forgot until someone notified me that he mentioned me about it. I don’t know how he happened to recall this:

Even if I had remembered this interaction, I don’t think I would have called out @NFLosophy over it because that’s not quite the mature thing to do. But I am not surprised by his actions, given this is something adult-sized children tend to do on social media.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills had trouble putting away the Chargers last Saturday night, but I think that was a function of the team being flat after such a huge statement victory over the Cowboys. I suspect they’ll be more motivated for this game, especially after losing to the Patriots earlier in the year.

New England thrives against the run, which is part of the reason it was able to upset Denver. Conversely, stopping the pass is a big issue, so it’s going to be tough for the injury-ravaged Patriots secondary to contain Josh Allen. Stefon Diggs has struggled recently, but this seems like it could be a great, breakout performance for him. Gabe Davis could always go nuclear as well.

Also, it’s worth remembering that Bill Belichick’s defenses struggle against mobile quarterbacks. Allen wasn’t running very much earlier in the season because of Ken Dorsey’s stupidity. Allen is running more now, which should give the Bills a big edge.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots have one advantage in this game, and that would be their rushing attack against Buffalo’s defense. The Bills aren’t terrible against the run, but they can be beaten by it. New England runs well with Ezekiel Elliott, so Belichick will be looking to establish his veteran running back and keep Allen on the sideline.

However, there are two problems with this. First, the Bills could establish a huge lead and take the Patriots out of their running game. Second, Bailey “Ben” Zappe will have to make some plays at some point. This is a problem, as Buffalo has an elite defense. Backup quarterbacks are usually a good bet unless they’re going up against high-caliber defenses.

Zappe had a decent game against the Broncos, which might make you question that previous statement. However, Denver’s defense was overrated, as the unit struggles in multiple areas. The Bills don’t really have a glaring weakness, so I expect Zappe to perform poorly.

RECAP: When dealing with high point spreads, there are three items that must apply to back the favorite: 1) There must be a huge advantage in talent. 2) The favorite must be healthy. 3) The favorite must be focused.

I’m pretty confident the Bills will dominate this matchup, as they check all three boxes. Sure, Buffalo has Miami next week, but it lost to the Patriots earlier in the year, so there should be motivation to take the Patriots seriously. As a bonus, we get two major edges: We’re fading a backup quarterback versus an elite defense, and we’re backing a mobile quarterback versus Belichick.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money is coming in on the Bills, which isn’t too much of a surprise. Nothing has changed for me as far as liking the Bills.

SATURDAY NOTES: Sharp money continues to pound the Bills up to -14. I wish I had locked this in earlier, but I’ll wait for some takeback to bring this back down to -13.5. DaQuan Jones will play for Buffalo, which is a huge boost for the defense. Meanwhile, the Patriots have three players with illnesses. That’s not enough to set off any red flags, but it’s at least something to monitor as a potential flu game.

PLAYER PROPS: Demario Douglas has gone over four receptions in five of his previous six games. The Bills allow the seventh-most production to slot receivers, so this is a good matchup for Douglas. The best number is over 4.5 receptions -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

LOCKED IN: I’m going to lock in the Bills at -14 -109. I’m worried about this line getting to -14.5 with all the sharp money on Buffalo.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m glad I locked in Bills -14 because the best line is now -14.5 -109 at Bookmaker. The sharps have been all over Buffalo. At -14.5, this would be a two-unit pick.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -13.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -13.5.

Computer Model: Bills -5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 55% (125,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Bills have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Opening Line: Bills -13.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Cloudy, 36 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: When diagnosing any matchup involving Justin Fields, it’s important to evaluate how the opposing defense fares against mobile quarterbacks. It’s not looking good for the Falcons in that regard, as they’ve surrendered the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks.

What the Falcons do well is smother No. 1 receivers with A.J. Terrell. D.J. Moore may have a disappointing performance as a result. Atlanta is much worse versus tight ends, but this may not be an area the Bears can attack because Cole Kmet suffered an injury last week.

The Bears, however, should be able to take advantage of Atlanta’s declining run defense. The Falcons have gotten worse versus the rush since David Onyemata has been sidelined. Chicago will be able to attack this area with its three-headed rushing attack.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons offense can also be diagnosed in a certain way. Arthur Smith, when his alien mustache isn’t calling the shots, loves giving the ball to Bijan Robinson, as we saw last week when Robinson abused the Colts. Thus, the Falcons are very favorable when battling a defense that can’t stop the run.

Unfortunately for the Falcons, this is a difficult matchup for them because Chicago is stout versus the rush. In fact, only two teams have yielded fewer rushing yards to the opposition. Failing to establish Robinson on the ground will be problematic for Taylor Heinicke, who will have to operate in long-yardage situations against an excellent pass defense.

One area in which the Bears are weak on this side of the ball is defending pass-catching running backs. In fact, no team has allowed more receiving yards to opposing backs. If Smith is smart, he’ll establish Robinson as a receiver. Then again, can Smith be trusted?

RECAP: People still haven’t caught on to how good the Bears are. They improved twice this season: The first time was when Montez Sweat joined the team. The second time was when Fields returned from injury. Since Fields’ return, the Bears have ranked fourth overall in net EPA. Their defense is second overall.

The Bears are much better than the mediocre Falcons, so this spread should be much higher than -3. I think something like -5.5 would be fair, and the metrics agree with that.

Chicago seems like a great play. Not only are we getting great value with them; we can also bet on a team that will be able to clamp down on Atlanta’s rushing attack while also being able to run the ball itself. Oh, and we get to fade an NFC South team as a bonus. NFC South teams are 16-26 against the spread outside the division.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Cole Kmet missed Wednesday’s practice, but I’m still very high on the Bears. The sharps on the other side, however. I’d love to know why.

SATURDAY NOTES: I really don’t get it. The sharp money continues to pour in on the Falcons, driving this line to -2.5. I’ll take it because I still love the Bears. I know that the injury report looks better for the Falcons, and Cole Kmet is going to be out, but on the flip side, the Bears will have Teven Jenkins back from injury this week. Chicago has been one of the best teams in the NFL since Justin Fields returned in Week 11, so this spread should be much higher than -2.5.

PLAYER PROPS: The Bears are stout against the run, surrendering the third-fewest rushing yards in the NFL this year. They should be able to hold Bijan Robinson in check, and if they don’t, Arthur Smith might just do that. The best number for the under is 49.5 rushing yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Falcons at +3, but not +2.5. The line has bounced back to -3 in some sportsbooks, but you can still get -2.5 -113 at Bookmaker. By the way, for fantasy purposes, D’Onta Foreman is out, so that makes Khalil Herbert very appealing.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -3.

Computer Model: Bears -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Action on the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 67% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bears -3.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Cloudy, 37 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: We just saw this matchup two weeks ago. Well, sort of. The Texans barely prevailed in that game, as they struggled to score with Case Keenum at the helm. Keenum triumphed with the help of some luck, but was atrocious the following week versus the Browns.

Keenum may not be needed in this game with C.J. Stroud potentially due back from his concussion. Having Stroud in action once again would be enormous for this matchup. Tennessee has an atrocious secondary that is especially weak to outside receivers. The Titans can’t defend the slot either if Sean Murphy-Bunting is out, which was the case last week.

This is why Stroud’s presence means so much in this matchup. The Titans are stout versus the run, but they can limit an offense operated by Keenum. Stroud, on the other hand, will be able to torch Tennessee rather easily.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans had severe problems moving the ball as well in the matchup that took place two weeks ago. This is because Houston was able to put the clamps on Derrick Henry, forcing Will Levis to throw the ball. Levis struggled without Henry’s support.

Too many people played Henry in DFS expecting him to dominate the Texans as usual. What they haven’t been made aware of, however, is that the Texans are now stellar against the run. Only three teams surrender fewer rushing yards.

While the Texans are much better against the run these days, they’re atrocious while trying to defend the pass. It doesn’t seem like the Titans will be able to take full advantage of this, as neither Levis nor Ryan Tannehill are capable of exploiting a liability, especially with DeAndre Hopkins seemingly playing on one leg recently.

RECAP: We don’t know Stroud’s status yet, so we can’t have an official pick yet. If Stroud plays, I’ll be all over the Texans, assuming the spread is reasonable (less than -6). If Stroud is out again, I’ll be inclined to side with the underdog, though by then, the spread could be under -3. If it goes to -2.5, I’ll have mild interest in Houston.

Check back later for my official pick once we know the Stroud news!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Will Levis practiced fully. Despite this, the line has moved in Houston’s favor because C.J. Stroud was limited in Wednesday’s practice. This is a huge upgrade over his DNPs from a week ago.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both Will Levis and C.J. Stroud will be returning this week. I’m going to be betting on the Titans, and it doesn’t have as much to do with the Houston injuries, of which there are many. The Texans could be down numerous defensive starters, including Will Anderson, Jonathan Greenard, Steven Nelson, and Maliek Collins. However, what I’m focusing on is Stroud. I’ve done the research, and in the past three years, quarterbacks coming off concussions are 4-11 against the spread in their first game back. Those wins weren’t even convincing for those quarterbacks. For instance, Derek Carr covered off a concussion this year, but he didn’t play well. The only reason he covered is because he was playing against the miserable Panthers. I know this is a small sample size, but it makes sense. If someone has a foggy mind because of a concussion, how are they expected to game plan properly for an NFL opponent?

PLAYER PROPS: C.J. Stroud has gone under 1.5 passing touchdowns in four of his previous seven games, so we’re getting plus money with something that already happens more than 50 percent of the time. Throw in the fact that quarterbacks have struggled off concussions, and you have a juicy prop bet. The best number is under 1.5 passing touchdowns +118 at FanDuel.You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp action to speak of in this game. The public loves the Texans, but I’m on the Titans. The best line is +4.5 -103 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Texans need to win, while the Titans have been eliminated. This is our first Aurora Snowmo game of Week 17.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -4.5.

Computer Model: Texans -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Houston: 74% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

History: Titans have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Mike Vrabel is 25-13 ATS as an underdog of 3+ points.

Opening Line: Texans -3.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Quarterbacks are obviously better when they have a clean pocket. Pressure disrupts things, but some signal-callers are more affected by it than others. The better quarterbacks in the NFL see their stats decline a bit. Some, on the other hand, well, I’ll let you see for yourselves:

These are Gardner Minshew’s stats when kept clean versus pressured. It’s alarming how bad he is when under pressure. I bring this up because the Raiders thrive at pressuring opposing quarterbacks. It’s the main reason why they have a top-10 EPA defense. They’ll be able to force Minshew into more turnovers.

The one way to save Minshew is to hide him behind the running game. This will be easier said than done, as Jonathan Taylor could struggle against a defense that is sixth in run defense EPA.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Aidan O’Connell isn’t very good at dealing with pressure either. He battled the Chiefs’ No. 1 pressure rate on Christmas afternoon and failed to complete a single pass after the first quarter. How the Raiders won under these circumstances is beyond me.

O’Connell won’t be facing as much heat this week. While the Chiefs are first in pressure rate, the Colts are 18th. Indianapolis struggles versus tight ends, so perhaps O’Connell will be able to have a connection with Michael Mayer, who missed Monday’s game.

It would be helpful for O’Connell if the Raiders were able to establish either Josh Jacobs or Zamir White. Indianapolis is ranked poorly versus the run, but this is because monstrous nose tackle Grover Stewart was suspended for six games. Stewart’s return will help the Colts play better against the rush.

RECAP: I’ve written this in the Patriots-Bills capsule, but it’s often profitable to fade a backup quarterback when they’re battling a top-12 defense. That’s what we’re doing here by going against Minshew. The Raiders are fourth in defensive EPA, so they’ll have no problem limiting Minshew.

The Colts, conversely, are 24th in defensive EPA, so O’Connell will have a chance for a much better performance than the one he experienced on Christmas. I like the Raiders for this reason. However, I can’t say I’m in love with this pick because the Raiders are not only coming off a huge upset win; they’re also traveling to the East Coast to play an early game on a short week. This is a horrible scheduling situation for the Raiders, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they were exhausted by the second half.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money moved this line to -3.5. Is it because Michael Pittman Jr. was able to practice Wednesday, albeit on a limited basis. I don’t know if this is the reason why the sharps jumped on the Colts, or if they realized how bad of a scheduling spot this is for the Raiders. The NFL really screwed over the Raiders.

SATURDAY NOTES: Michael Pittman Jr. was cleared from concussion protocol, so unless he suffers another relapse, he’ll be on the field again. This would definitely take me off the Raiders, which I was already iffy about because of their brutal scheduling. I’m actually going to switch my pick to the Colts.

PLAYER PROPS: The last time Michael Pittman Jr. played a full game and didn’t catch at least eight passes was Week 7 versus the Browns. He’s a receptions machine, so I love the over 6.5 receptions, especially with the Raiders allowing the second-most production to outside receivers. The best number is over 6.5 receptions -130 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no interest in this game, and neither do the sharps at this number. However, there was some pro action on the Raiders at +4. The best line is Colts -3.5 -107 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

The Raiders are coming off a huge upset and have to play an early game while traveling to the East Coast.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -3.

Computer Model: Colts -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Slight lean on the Raiders.

Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 62% (119,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Raiders are 36-54 ATS after a win since 2009.

Opening Line: Colts -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: This spread moved from -6 at the open to -7, so I can only assume that this is optimism regarding Trevor Lawrence. We know that Lawrence is like Wolverine with his injuries, as he’s somehow incapable of missing any football action. I expect him to play.

Whether or not Lawrence is 100 percent is a different story. The Buccaneers beat him up pretty well last week, and the Panthers have an even better pass defense. They produce a ton of pressure on the quarterback, so Lawrence is expected to struggle once again.

While the Panthers are excellent against the pass, they struggle to stop the run. One would think that Travis Etienne could exploit this matchup, but I’m not so sure. The Jaguars don’t run block very well, so Etienne may not have the necessary running lanes to succeed.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers also have an opportunity to exploit a big liability on Jacksonville’s defense, but they may not be able to do it. That liability is Jacksonville’s inability to stop the pass. The Jaguars have gotten torched by everyone, including Jake Browning and Joe Flacco.

Can Bryce Young join in on the party? That’s the major question surrounding this game, aside from Lawrence’s health. Young has been terrible all year, failing to throw well against soft aerial defenses. However, he had his best performance last week versus the Packers. Granted, Green Bay’s defense is a mess right now, but it’s not like the Jaguars are any better through the air.

Running the ball, however, will not be very possible for the Panthers. While the Jaguars are woeful to passing attacks, they are terrific while stopping the rush.

RECAP: If I had any confidence in Young, I’d bet the Panthers heavily. The Jaguars suck and should not be favored by this many points over anyone. They’ve dropped four in a row, and they could easily make it five straight losses, even against Carolina. That’s how bad they are.

However, I can’t put my money on Young. He has burned me way too many times this year. He looked good last week, but most of his positive production came in garbage time. He was down 30-16 to the injury-ravaged Packers before coming back late. He could just as easily trail by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter this week, and he may not be able to mount a fourth-quarter comeback this time.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money on the Panthers has moved this line down to +6.5. It may have to do with Trevor Lawrence, who is now dealing with a shoulder injury. He was DNP in Wednesday’s practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: Congrats to the sharps who bet the Panthers at +7 because Trevor Lawrence was ruled out. This line has fallen to +4. I don’t mind the Jaguars at -4, just as a fade of Carolina. I don’t think it’s a given that the Panthers will be able to win, or even cover despite C.J. Beathard starting for Jacksonville.

PLAYER PROPS: Aside from the Cardinals, the Panthers have allowed the most touchdowns to running backs this year. Travis Etienne is likely to score, especially given the quarterback change. The best anytime touchdown prop for Etienne is +100 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I thought I switched my pick to the Jaguars, but I forgot to do that, so my apologies. I’m not betting this game regardless. The sharps were on Carolina back when this line was +7. The best line now is -3.5 -110 at Caesars and BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Jaguars need to win, while the Panthers have been eliminated. This is an Aurora Snowmo game.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -9.

Computer Model: Jaguars -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Sharp money on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 61% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Jaguars are 60-106 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 18-52 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Jaguars are 10-18 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more since 2003.

Jaguars are 14-29 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Jaguars are 6-11 ATS as favorites of -7 or more coming off a loss.

Opening Line: Jaguars -6.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Sunny, 60 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams had their offensive issues in the middle of the season. Both Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp were banged up, while Kyren Williams was sidelined for a stretch. Things have changed, however, as everyone is healthy now. The Rams even found a viable third receiving option in Demarcus Robinson.

Stafford should have no issues moving the chains in this game. The Giants allow the second-most production to slot receivers, so Stafford will pepper Cooper Kupp with targets. The Giants aren’t very good against outside receivers either, so Stafford will have success there as well. Meanwhile, Williams will trample over a defense that has allowed the second-most rushing yards this year.

A caveat worth noting is that Stafford excels against the blitz. This is important because the Giants blitz at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Stafford won’t have any issues beating New York’s schemes.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Rams have a solid defense to complement their offense. They have two weaknesses, however. They struggle against outside wide receivers, and they are horrible when trying to defend tight ends.

The Giants have no one to exploit the former weakness. The latter, conversely, can be beaten via Darren Waller, who just returned from injury. Waller hasn’t quite been 100 percent yet, but perhaps that’ll change in this game.

Regardless, the Rams figure to thrive against the run. They’re excellent versus ground attacks, so Saquon Barkley won’t be able to accomplish much.

RECAP: This Web site has been around for nearly 25 years. It’ll actually be 25 years next November. One of the longest standing traditions we have here is the Aurora Snowmo dynamic.

Aurora Snowmo refers to fading teams needing to win in the playoff race versus an opponent already eliminated from the playoffs. This is something that hits nearly two-thirds of the time. I imagine it’s because of a combination of an inflated spread and a choke job by the favorite. Choke job being the “Aurora Snow” part of Aurora Snowmo.

However, I don’t know if Aurora Snowmo applies to the Rams because they’re recent Super Bowl champs. If a team in this situation isn’t going to choke, it’s them. Plus, the Rams have some great matchup edges in their favor. I’m actually going to side with them, but I won’t be betting them because they may choke. Don’t worry though; we’ll have better Aurora Snowmo games later.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Giants are getting the sharp money, probably because Tyrod Taylor gives them a good chance to be competitive in this game. The Rams would be a slam-dunk pick if Tommy DeVito were still starting.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps jumped on the Giants, perhaps because there were some downgrades for the Rams on Friday. Puka Nacua, Alaric Jackson and Ernest Jones all missed Friday’s practice after being full earlier in the week. All three are key players on the Rams roster, so you’d have to consider the Giants if they’re all out.

PLAYER PROPS: The Rams have been destroyed by tight ends all year, and with Tyrod Taylor back at the helm, Darren Waller has someone competent enough to get the ball to him. The best number is over 38.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been pounding the Rams on Sunday morning after showing some Giants interest earlier in the week. If you want to tail the sharps, you can get a -6 -109 line at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: Giants.

The Rams need to win, while the Giants have been eliminated. This is an Aurora Snowmo game.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -6.

Computer Model: Rams -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Tons of action on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 53% (167,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Sean McVay is 8-4 ATS in 1 p.m. Eastern games.

Opening Line: Rams -6.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Sunny, 46 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: This shouldn’t take very long. The Eagles have an explosive offense. The Cardinals have the worst overall defense in the NFL. The end.

OK, more specifically, Arizona is dreadful to the running backs and outside wide receivers. I don’t really need to tell you that this is where the Eagles thrive. D’Andre Swift is coming off a monstrous rushing performance. Then, of course, there’s A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, both of whom will succeed against the Arizona cornerbacks.

One other thing worth noting is that the Cardinals had no answer for Justin Fields’ rushing last week. Fields ran for nearly 100 yards, so Jalen Hurts will have a chance to accomplish something similar.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Of course, the issue with the Eagles isn’t their offense. It’s their defense, which has been a total disaster this year. They’ve been abysmal against the pass, as every quarterback has torched them this year.

Kyler Murray should be next in line. Murray has had some decent performances since returning from injury, and if Marquise Brown can return from last week’s hiatus, he’ll have the weaponry necessary to beat the Eagles.

Murray will need to do all the work because the Eagles are pretty stout against the run. They were better against the rush earlier in the season, but they shouldn’t have a problem limiting James Conner.

RECAP: Every Eagles fan knows that nothing good comes from a game against the Cardinals. Arizona has haunted this franchise for a very long time. In 2002, the Eagles lost Donovan McNabb for the duration of the regular season versus the Cardinals. In 2008, the Eagles lost as favorites against the Cardinals in the NFC Championship. Last year, the Eagles suffered two injuries to their offensive line at Arizona. And to make things even more ominous, the Eagles lost last year’s Super Bowl when they slipped all over the field in Arizona.

Will this be another disastrous outcome for the Eagles? Perhaps. Then again, their secondary has been the true disaster, and it’s something that Murray will be able to exploit, especially if Brown can play.

I’m on Arizona. In addition to the Cardinals being able to exploit their greatest weakness, they are also favored by way too many points. A -10.5 ine is outrageous. I made this spread -7.5, while the EPA numbers suggest that this line should be -3! I don’t know about -3, but then again, the metrics said that the Patriots should have been favored in Denver last week, and they ended up winning outright. I’m going to trust the numbers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I can’t get over how wrong this spread is. The Bears were -4 at home versus the Cardinals. The Eagles are -10.5 at home versus the Cardinals. So, this is saying that the Eagles are 6.5 points better than the Bears. I don’t even think the Eagles are better than the Bears at all!

SATURDAY NOTES: Kyler Murray is questionable with an illness after being DNP-DNP-limited in practice. Murray needs to play for me to bet the Cardinals, so we’re just waiting for his status.

PLAYER PROPS: D’Andre Swift has eclipsed 70 rushing yards in his previous two games, which is not surprising because the coaching staff stated that it wanted to dedicate more energy to the running game. Swift should dominate on the ground versus the Cardinals, who have allowed the second-most rushing yards this year. The best number is over 66.5 rushing yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kyler Murray is active, which is what we were looking for. The sharps are on the Cardinals, and I love Arizona as well. The best line is +12.5 -108 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -10.

Computer Model: Eagles -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Slight lean on the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 61% (145,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Eagles are 7-17 ATS before playing the Giants since December 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -12.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 48 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Buccaneers debacled the Saints in Week 4, but the reason for that was Derek Carr’s health. Carr injured his shoulder the prior week and tried to return too quickly. Carr couldn’t get the ball downfield as a result, prompting a very ugly output by the offense.

Carr is healthy now, as is Chris Olave, who missed the Week 15 contest. Olave had a big game against the Rams, and he should continue to thrive in this contest. The Buccaneers have been torched by No. 1 receivers all year, so now that Carr is healthy for this matchup, Olave will be able to enjoy a big performance.

The Saints, of course, will want to establish Alvin Kamara and perhaps Taysom Hill on the ground. That’ll be easier said than done against a Tampa defense that typically excels against the run.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I referred to the Saints as a front-running defense last week. They’re more than capable of shutting down mediocre or worse offenses, but when confronted with a great scoring attack, they are leakier than Mitch McConnell’s diaper. Or Brandon’s diaper. Whichever you prefer.

I don’t know if the Buccaneers would qualify as having a great scoring attack, but they’ve been terrific lately. Some of that has to do with soft competition, but that’s where a major injury on the Saints defense comes into play. That would be to Marshon Lattimore. The terrific corner often gets the best of Mike Evans, but Lattimore is sidelined, so he won’t be around to shut down Evans.

With that in mind, it’s hard not to like the Buccaneers’ chances of scoring. It won’t all be great, as the Saints tend to put the clamps on opposing running backs, but Tampa’s aerial assault will be effective with Lattimore sidelined.

RECAP: If Lattimore were healthy, I’d like the Saints’ chances of winning and ending this Tampa nonsense. The Buccaneers have been one of the luckiest teams in the NFL this year. I could dig deeper into it here, but I already have on my NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page.

Lattimore, however, is not available, so the Buccaneers will match up better against the Saints than usual. Curiously, however, the sharps are pounding the Saints at a high rate. I don’t know why, but because I’m very torn on this game, I’m inclined to trust what the pros are doing.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps pounced on the Saints, bringing this line down to +2.5. I’m not seeing any reason as to why this happened. Maybe the pros have realized that the Buccaneers have been the luckiest team in the NFL this year.

SATURDAY NOTES: Something interesting is that three Saints players popped up with illnesses on Friday, including Alvin Kamara, who missed the final practice of the week. This would take me off any Saints bet, but I didn’t have one listed anyway.

PLAYER PROPS: We won with a Chris Olave over last week, so let’s do it again. I have no idea why his numbers are so low. He’s the main threat in the offense, and this is a great matchup. No. 1 receivers have crushed the Buccaneers all year, so Olave figures to dominate. The best number is over 66.5 -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Saints at +3, but not +2.5. You can still get a +3 for -126 at Bookmaker. The math says that it makes sense to pay up for +3 at -127, so this just barely makes the cut.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -2.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 52% (149,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 17 of the last 25 meetings.

Road Team is 131-91 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 38-70 ATS at home in the previous 108 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Sunny, 67 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: So much for Brock Purdy winning MVP. Purdy was considered the favorite entering the Christmas night game for some reason, but he completely imploded. He threw four interceptions and very easily could have tossed a fifth. The result was a two-touchdown defeat to Baltimore.

Purdy will be able to rebound this week. This is because he’ll be battling the Redskins, who have the worst pass defense in the NFL. Washington allows the most production to all wide receivers, so Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are near locks to dominate Washington.

As if this matchup weren’t bad enough for the Redskins, they also allow tons of receiving yardage to opposing running backs. I don’t need to tell you that this bodes very poorly against Christian McCaffrey.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins still haven’t decided who will be quarterbacking them this week. On one hand, Jacoby Brissett makes all the sense in the world. He’s been able to engineer some great comebacks in the past couple of weeks. He would give Washington the best chance to win, and it’s not even close. On the other hand, the Redskins would be better off not winning to help their draft positioning, plus they still may want to see what they have in Sam Howell.

Howell holds on to the ball too long and takes way too many sacks to trust him against the 49ers. San Francisco’s edge rush will eat him alive, especially if left tackle Charles Leno is sidelined once again. Brissett, conversely, would be able to take advantage of some liabilities the 49ers have at cornerback.

Regardless, the Redskins won’t have any success running the ball in this matchup. The 49ers clamp down on opposing ground attacks rather well, and Brian Robinson may not be able to play anyway.

RECAP: If Howell starts, I’ll have lots of interest in the 49ers. San Francisco will be able to score at will against Washington’s miserable defense, and Howell won’t be able to keep up on the scoreboard because he’ll continue to take too many sacks and commit turnovers.

However, if Brissett gets the nod, I won’t have any interest in betting this game. Brissett is a quality quarterback and will be more than capable of engineering some late touchdowns to get a back-door cover.

I’ll have an official pick here once the quarterback news is settled. I’m going to be on the 49ers regardless, but the unit count will be determined by which quarterback Washington starts.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jacoby Brissett was announced as the starter, bringing this line down to -12.5. I’m not going to bet on the 49ers because Brissett gives the Redskins a legitimate chance to get a back-door touchdown.

SATURDAY NOTES: So much for Jacoby Brissett starting. Brissett suffered a hamstring injury in Friday’s practice, so Sam Howell may start again. Additionally, the Redskins will be without at least two offensive linemen and their top two cornerbacks. This team is a disaster. If Howell starts, the 49ers will be a big play.

PLAYER PROPS: The Redskins secondary was already awful, and now their top two cornerbacks will be out. Deebo Samuel’s over should hit. The best number is over 59.5 -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

LOCKED IN: I’m going to lock in the 49ers at -14 -108. If it’s announced that Jacoby Brissett is out, this line may move past -14. The best line is -14 -108 at Bookmaker.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was right to lock in the Bills at -14, but locking in the 49ers at -14 didn’t matter because that’s what the line still is. Jacoby Brissett is out, so I’m surprised this line hasn’t crossed -14. Caesars has the best line at -14 -110. There’s no sharp money here.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The 49ers are a great team that was just embarrassed.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -17.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -13.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -13.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 81% (153,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Brock Purdy is 17-4 SU, 13-8 ATS.

Kyle Shanahan is 8-5 ATS in 1 p.m. Eastern games.

Opening Line: 49ers -13.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 51 degrees. Light wind.