NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2023 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2023): 6-8-1 (-$2,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2023): 5-10-1 (-$1,295)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2023): 5-9 (-$935)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2023): 7-6 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2023): 5-9 ($0)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2023): 13-2-1 (+$1,960)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2023): 6-7 (-$115)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2023): 7-7-1 (+$740)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$120)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2023): 7-8-1 (-$800)
2023 NFL Picks: 119-121-10 (-$7,000)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 31, 11:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 17 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It’s amazing how much different the Steelers looked with competent quarterbacking. It’s unclear why they stuck with Mitchell Trubisky for so long, but Mason Rudolph was a billion times better than Trubisky, and not just because a billion times zero is still zero. He took care of the ball and connected on deep passes to his receivers. The Steelers would not be in their dire position right now had they just tried Rudolph instead of Trubisky.

This may all be moot if Kenny Pickett is able to return this week, though it’s still unclear if he’ll be able to play. This would normally be a tough matchup for Pickett, as Seattle has some talented players in its secondary. However, the Seahawks have some injuries in that area, so Pickett could have a decent performance.

The Seahawks are weakest on this side of the ball when it comes to stopping the run. Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris are capable of quality performances, so I believe we’ll see that from them in this matchup.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Jake Browning had been on fire entering last week, but as with his first battle against the Steelers, the backup struggled mightily. This wasn’t too much of a surprise, as Pittsburgh’s edge rushers gave him some major problems. The Steelers also limit opposing receivers rather well, so this was problematic for Browning, who was missing the top player at that position.

The Seahawks have a healthier receiving corps, as the trio of D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is difficult to contain. The Seahawks also do a better job of blocking on the edge, so they’ll have a better chance of keeping T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith at bay.

Of course, Seattle will attempt to establish Kenneth Walker. The Bengals weren’t able to run on the Steelers with Joe Mixon, but the Seahawks are better at run blocking, so Walker could have some decent gains.

RECAP: I don’t know why this line is above -3. These seem to be two evenly matched teams, and the Steelers even have an extra day of rest. I made this line Seattle -1. The EPA numbers suggest this spread should be Steelers -1!

I suppose the expectation is that Rudolph will fail against the defensively challenged Bengals. Perhaps that’ll happen, but the Steelers should be able to establish the run and keep Rudolph in favorable passing situations.

I like the Steelers to cover this number. I’m not in love with this pick, but I’m willing to bet a couple of units as long as the spread is above three.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money coming in on the Steelers, which is not too surprising with this line above -3.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing new on the injury report. I still like Pittsburgh, but I’m not in love with this pick.

PLAYER PROPS: We had this recommendation from the After Dark video. Geno Smith over 0.5 interceptions thrown looks pretty good against Pittsburgh’s defense. The best vig is +110 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It looks like there might be some sharp money moving this spread in Seattle’s favor. I’m still favoring the Steelers a bit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, the sharps are on the Seahawks. I was wondering if we’d get a +4.5 -110, and we did at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -3.5.

Computer Model: Steelers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 53% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Steelers are 30-16 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 46 instances.

Mike Tomlin is 57-33 ATS as an underdog.

Seahawks are 59-45 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Geno Smith is 3-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+.

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Rain, 51 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Santa Reservation.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: What offense? The Chiefs were pathetic on Christmas. Their offense gave the Raiders touchdowns on back-to-back plays, while their players made so many mistakes throughout the course of the afternoon.

Fortunately for the Chiefs, there’s reason for optimism. It can’t be too much of a surprise that they struggled against Las Vegas because the Raiders have one of the best defenses in the NFL, ranking fourth in defensive EPA. The Bengals, conversely, are dead last in defensive EPA. If Mason Rudolph could torch their defense, Patrick Mahomes can as well, even if his supporting cast continues to screw up.

The Bengals are weak everywhere, but they’re especially bad at defending running backs and tight ends. Isiah Pacheco’s potential absence could hurt, but Travis Kelce figures to have a big performance.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: As embarrassing as the Christmas loss was, Kansas City’s defense at least played well. The Chiefs surrendered 20 points to the Raiders, but 14 of those points came via the offense. The defense allowed six points, while Aidan O’Connell didn’t complete a single pass following the opening quarter.

The Chiefs defense, which is now healthy, should be able to clamp down on the Bengals offense. We’ve seen Jake Browning perform at a high level versus soft defenses, but he has looked lost in two matchups against the Steelers. Kansas City’s defense is on the same level as Pittsburgh’s. L’Jarius Sneed will be able to erase Tee Higgins if Ja’Marr Chase can’t play, so where will Browning be able to throw?

If the Chiefs have one weakness on this side of the ball, it’s against the run. Joe Mixon hasn’t been an effective runner, so I don’t think he’ll be able to exploit the matchup.

RECAP: No one will want to bet the Chiefs after seeing the Raiders pull the upset on Christmas. Public bettors may also have fond memories of Browning before the loss to the Steelers. I imagine the casual bets will come in on Cincinnati.

This is a great bounce-back spot for the Chiefs. This is a much better matchup for the offense than the one they had on Christmas. Again, if Mason Rudolph was able to lead the Steelers to a 34-point output, Mahomes will be capable of producing something similar. The Bengals, meanwhile, will struggle to score once again, especially if Chase is sidelined once more. It’s a shame for the Bengals because they looked like a nice story with Browning, but this game has the potential to get out of hand.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m doing a 180 with this pick. I’m going to be on the Bengals for a few units. I’ve come to realize that these Chiefs are like the Buccaneers from last year, where people kept believing they would rebound, and they’d be favored by way too many points because of that sentiment. The sharps are on Cincinnati.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Chiefs will be without their left tackle, and they could also miss their top cornerback, L’Jarius Sneed, who didn’t practice a single time during the week. However, the more I think about it, the more I hate this matchup for Cincinnati’s defense. The Bengals are weak to tight ends and slot receivers, and the Chiefs have Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice to take advantage of those respective matchups.

PLAYER PROPS: No. 2 receivers have dominated the Chiefs. Perhaps that’ll change if L’Jarius Sneed is out, but I still like Tee Higgins. The best number is over 43.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line is up to +7, so Cincinnati is a bit more appealing, but still no interest here.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money coming in on the Bengals at +7, but not at +6.5. Many books have taken this line to +7, but you can get +7 -112 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -7.

Computer Model: Chiefs -5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 55% (148,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 79-24 SU, 54-48 ATS (42-35 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 12-8 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Chiefs -8.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 35 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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DENVER OFFENSE: The Chargers have some talented defensive players, but their best one, Joey Bosa, has been sidelined since Week 12. Bosa was designated for return recently, so there’s a decent chance he’ll be able to return this week.

Bosa would help the pass defense, which has been a major weakness for the Chargers all year. It won’t be as big of a factor this week, however, as we’ve seen Russell Wilson fail to capitalize on great aerial matchups. He’s gone against several teams that can’t stop the pass, including the Texans and Lions, and he has failed to take advantage of all of his opportunities.

The Broncos would love to pound the ball with Javonte Williams, but this is not the matchup for that. The Chargers have improved against the run this year, so Williams won’t do much once again.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Broncos are known to have some sort of great defense, but they have too many weaknesses to be considered an elite unit. They are horrible at defending running backs in every regard, and they also struggle versus tight ends.

The Chargers don’t run the ball well, but they can utilize Austin Ekeler as a threat out of the backfield. Ekeler should be able to pick up plenty of yardage through the air. Gerald Everett could have a nice game as well, though leaning on him to exploit a liability doesn’t sound all that great.

There’s also a chance Keenan Allen returns. The Broncos defend slot receivers very well, but Allen can overcome any matchup because of his supreme talent level.

RECAP: The Broncos were favored by way too many points against the Patriots, and that’s once again the case in this game. I had trouble getting this line above -3. Denver has done nothing outside of earn some lucky wins to warrant being favored by 5.5 points.

We have the line value and matchup edges in our favor. The Chargers will be able to deploy Ekeler well versus Denver’s overrated defense, while Wilson will continue to struggle, especially if Courtland Sutton isn’t available.

As you can tell, I love the Chargers, who are rallying behind their interim head coach. This is also an Aurora Snowmo game, as the Broncos are likely to choke because they need the win.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jarrett Stidham has been announced as the starter, prompting the line to fall to -3.5. I don’t agree with this spread movement at all because I believe Stidham is better than Russell Wilson, who stinks. Wilson is also unliked in the locker room, so his benching could motivate the team as if there were a new head coach. I’m going to switch my pick to the Broncos and bet them.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams have some glaring injury issues. The Broncos have three players with illnesses, including Jerry Jeudy, who didn’t practice Friday. Meanwhile, the Chargers will be missing their top three receivers, so it’s hard to imagine how they’ll be able to move the chains at all, especially given that they can’t run the ball. I still like the Broncos quite a bit.

PLAYER PROPS: Easton Stick loves throwing to Gerald Everett, who has caught five or more passes in all three games with Stick. Now, Joshua Palmer is out in addition to Keenan Allen. The best number is over 4.5 receptions -102 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m looking for the best -3 line. The best one I see is -3 -115 at FanDuel. I considered locking that in, but based on how this line movement is trending, we might be able to get something better in the afternoon.

FINAL THOUGHTS: So much for my gambit of waiting for a better -3. The best -3 is for -120 vig at Caesars, followed by -123 at Bookmaker. There isn’t much sharp action on either side.

The Motivation. Edge: Chargers.

The Broncos need to win, while the Chargers have been eliminated. This is an Aurora Snowmo game.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -6.

Computer Model: Broncos -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 55% (72,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Broncos have won 2 of the last 3 meetings.

Russell Wilson is 33-16 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Opening Line: Broncos -6.5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 43 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Minnesota, where tonight, the Green Bay Fudge Packers take on the Minnesota Fudge Vikings. Guys, everyone is saying this game is important for the playoff race, but if my Philadelphia Eagles aren’t involved, then the game’s not worth watching. I vote that we watch highlights of my Eagles’ Super Bowl win over the Patriots from the 2017 season instead. Who’s with me!?

Emmitt: Thanks, Umaro. When you talk about season, that remind me of science class that I taked at the College of University of Florida Go Gata State College Florida University City School Country State. We learn hard science that even science fiction guy even have problem with like I rememberment one question we have on test that go, “What are the four season?” At first, I say four season are a hotel. But then I remember that there are other answer: summer, spring, winter, and hotel.

Reilly: Emmitt, do you have any flashcards I can use when I study for Mother’s pop quiz? If I fail another pop quiz, she said I’m not going to get a macaroni and cheese dinner for a month! It’ll just be white rice for Kevin poopykins, which sounds worse than rooting for the arch nemesis of my Philadelphia Eagles, the stinky Dallas Cowboys!

Tollefson: Emmitt, for the love of god, please give this man your flashcards because I need to cheat off of him to pass the class! Reilly’ mom said that if I fail another quiz, I’m not going to be allowed to kidnap and enslave women. What a sorry existence that would be!

Reilly: I hope one of these days, after I force a girl to be my girlfriend of course, I can learn how to kidnap and enslave women just as well as you, Tolly. Mother is allowing me to talk to women so I can date a hotter female singer than Taylor Swift to prove the women at the hair salon wrong, so let’s get to tonight’s special guest. The producers recommended, let’s see, someone named Blizzo? Who’s that?

Lizzo: HELLO, ME BACK BECAUSE YOU COME BACK TO MY HOME TOWN OF MINNESOTA. ME WANT TO TRY AGAIN TO BE YOUR GIRLFRIEND BECAUSE I HEAR RUMOR ABOUT MOTHER-IN-LAW MAKING MACARONI AND CHEESE DINNER, LIZZO LIKEY, NOM NOM!

Reilly: Oh, come on! Not Lizzo again! Come on guys, the season is winding down, and we need some better options. We’re running out of time to prove Mother’s hair salon friends wrong. If Mother’s the laughing stock of the hair salon, she may decide to stop buying macaroni and cheese all together!

Lizzo: ME HAVE IDEA. WHAT IF ME EAT MOTHER FRIENDS AT HAIR SALON? AS YOUR FUTURE WIFE, I CANNOT ALLOW MOTHER-IN-LAW TO STOP MAKE MACARONI AND CHEESE, OR LIZZO GOING TO BE VERY SAD, AND WHEN LIZZO SAD, CHILDREN GET EATENED BY ACCIDENT.

Reilly: Wow, well, Joe Bident is the expert when it comes to children, but before we get to him, Charissa Thompson has a report for us. Charissa?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Kevin. I just got word that a green dragon has kidnapped the princess and taken her to the swamp cave, where only a dragon warrior can save her. Back to you, Kevin.

Reilly: In what world can that possibly happen? Not one in our reality because we have great leaders like John Feasterman looking out for us. Senator President, tell Charissa that she’s an idiot for believing this.

John Fetterman: Green dragon, blue dragon, red dragon! Get the Staff of Rain to get the Rainbow Drop. I like rainbows. I hate rainbows. I found a bowl of Lucky Charms at the end of the rainbow. The guy there said, “Happy Valentime’s Day,” and I laughed, haha. Skittles are my favorite vegetable.

Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! Lizzo, I can appreciate your enthusiasm for macaroni and cheese dinners, but how can you convince the hair salon ladies that you are hotter than Taylor Swift? If you eat them, Mother can’t win the bet.

Lizzo: ME HAVE SAYING. IF YOU CAN’T BEAT THEM, EAT THEM. WHAT IF WE GOING TO EAT TAYLOR SWIFT INSTEAD? WE DON’T HAVE TO EAT HER ALL BODY BUT MAYBE JUST HER FACE. IF SHE NO HAVE FACE, SHE NO PRETTY SINGER.

Reilly: Lizzo, you are a pure genius! That’s the loophole we need! President Joe Bident, do you think this is the best course of action? You would know better than anyone because you’re so secure in your job that you are getting your political opponent thrown off the ballot. Only someone so secure in power would need to do that.

Joe Biden: Now look here, you lemonade-chugging Native American Irish cowboy. You’re fat, so if you’re going to challenge me, it better come with more pushups because Uncle Joe’s been doing pushups at the beach. I grew up on an African American beach in Delaware, it was a very poor beach because of course, but I grew up there because I was just like those African American people like the kids at the jungle schools, but they used to call me Not Poor Guy Joe because they knew I didn’t belong in the jungle on the count of me being a white guy. But here’s the deal: As I told my girlfriend Tonya, who just switched from breast milk to formula, we have to preserve democracy, and we can only do that by removing our political opponents off the ballot, period. Speaking of periods, my other girlfriend, uh- what’s her name just got hers for the first time, so time to dump her because she’s now too old.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that he doesn’t belong in the jungle, which is totally false, maybe the totaliest wrongest thing anyone has ever said, and believe me, I know a lot about people saying the totaliest, wrongest things anyone can possibly say, and Sleepy Joe is the worst of them because, frankly, Sleepy Joe belongs in the jungle with the animals because he has the IQ of a zebra, and many people say that Trump would be the best animal in the jungle, and I would tell them, “I thought I would be one of the best animals in the jungle,” but they say, “No, Mr. President, sir, you’d be the best animal anyone has ever heard,” and I think they are right after thinking about it, and I think I’d have the IQ of the lion, or maybe the tiger, those are two very bright animals, much brighter than Sleepy Joe, who is the dumbest animal anyone has ever seen.

Wolfley: DONALD, YOU BETTER HOPE THAT YOU DON’T EVER GO INTO THE JUNGLE ON MY HOME PLANET BECAUSE THERE ARE TELEPHONE POLES WITH WATER BOTTLES FOR STOMACHS, AND THEY ARE THE SMARTEST ANIMALS IN THE ALPHA QUADRANT OF THE GALAXY.

Reilly: Shut up, idiots! Lizzo, we need to formulate our plan. How exactly will you eat Taylor Swift’s face to make her uglier?

Lizzo: ME ALREADY HAVE PLAN. YOU GOING TO HAVE TAYLOR SWIFT AND BOYFRIEND AS GUEST NEXT WEEK, AND ME GOING TO HIDE BEHIND CHAIR, AND WHEN SHE SAY SHE STILL GIRLFRIEND OF TRAVIS KELCE, ME GOING TO POP OUT FROM CHAIR AND SURPRISE ATTACK NOM NOM FACE NOM NOM.

Reilly: I’m not sure if you’ll successfully be able to hide behind a chair, but I like your plan otherwise! We’ll totally get Taylor Swift’s face eaten! New Daddy, what do you think of our plan to have Lizzo eat Taylor Swift’s face?

Jay Cutler: You guys are kinda sick, but meh, I don’t care.

Reilly: New Daddy, how can you say that!? I’m a totally reasonable person, and I’m not sick at all!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about being sick, Kevin. Let’s talk about different types of sickness, Kevin. Let’s begin with a sinus infection, Kevin. There’s a chest cold, Kevin. How about we get to the common cold, Kevin. We can discuss an ear infection, Kevin. Don’t forget about the flu, Kevin. Want to get to a urinary tract infection, Kevin? Then there’s the simple act of being sick like Kevin, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, YOU’RE THE TRUE SICKO BECAUSE YOU DON’T UNDERSTAND THE VALUE OF HAVING LIZZO EAT TAYLOR SWIFT’S FACE SO THAT MOTHER CAN BE PROVEN RIGHT AT THE HAIR SALON! We’ll be back after this!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It wasn’t too long ago that the Packers looked like a team that would make some major noise in the playoffs. They had beaten the Lions and Chiefs in consecutive weeks, and they were on top of the world heading into a Monday night battle versus the Giants.

That Giants game was the first of multiple losses, and it occurred because “No Cookie” Jordan Love was utterly confused by the Giants’ blitzing scheme. The Giants blitz at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and Love showed that he was not capable of beating this style of defense. As it so happens, the Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the league, so Love is bound to struggle.

It would be ideal for Love to lean on the running game. This was possible last week because Carolina is miserable versus the rush. The Vikings, conversely, excel against it, so I wouldn’t expect a big game from Aaron Jones again.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings outgained the Lions in net yards and yards per play last week, but they ultimately lost because Nick Mullens threw four interceptions. The turnovers were at least fun when Joshua Dobbs was committing them because we could joke about him crashing back down to Earth. Mullens, conversely, always has the same scowl on his face. I say Dobbs should start again.

Mullens will have a good opportunity to play a great game. The Packers are miserable in every regard defensively. They haven’t been able to stop the pass at all recently, as they’ve allowed Tommy DeVito and Bryce Young to have their best performances. Mullens has talented receivers at his disposal, and they’ll be able to torch Green Bay’s secondary.

Meanwhile, the Packers will continue to be terrible against the run. Ty Chandler has impressed as Minnesota’s new running back, so I would expect a big game out of him.

RECAP: The Vikings have positive matchup edges on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they’ll be able to do anything they want against Green Bay’s reeling defense. Defensively, they’ll bother Love enough to force him into some turnovers.

Given these advantages, you’d think the Vikings would be favored by a field goal at the very least. Instead, they’re just -2, which seems like a great bargain. I’ll be on the Vikings for several units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No practice report yet. The sharps haven’t taken a side yet either.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Vikings are getting Brian O’Neill back from injury, which is a huge boon for an offense that lost T.J. Hockenson and may not have Jordan Addison. I like the Vikings, as Green Bay is a colossal mess right now.

PLAYER PROPS: The Packers have a poor run defense. Excluding last week, every single running back from a one-man backfield has crossed 80 rushing yards against them in recent games. Ty Chandler should be next. The best number is 80+ rushing yards +185 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: Let’s throw the Chandler prop along with a Chandler anytime touchdown, Jayden Reed over 4.5 receptions, and Tucker Kraft under 37.5 receiving yards. The Vikings are weak to slot receivers, but are very strong to tight ends. This same-game parlay pays +1200 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on Green Bay injury news. I’ll have my final thoughts posted around 7:45 Eastern, or perhaps a bit earlier.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Packers won’t have Christian Watson or Dontayvion Wicks. I thought the sharps might come in on the Vikings, but that hasn’t been the case. The pros haven’t touched this game, while the public is all over Green Bay. I still really like the Vikings. The best line is PK -108 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -2.

Computer Model: Vikings -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

No fans of Jaren Hall, apparently.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 70% (232,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 16 of the last 23 meetings Aaron Rodgers has played fully, excluding a 2018 tie.

Packers are 63-40 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Vikings are 43-35 ATS at home since 2014 (12-20 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -2.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.