April 26, 2013
2013 NFL Draft Day 2 Preview – Ten Observations:
1. As I say every year, stupid teams make stupid picks. There’s a reason why the same group of franchises make the playoffs every year and another collection of teams is always drafting in the top 10.
The AFC South is a great example. If you’re the Texans or the Colts, you have to be laughing at the Jaguars and Titans. The latter squads ignored positions of high value and chose a right tackle and guard, respectively, early in the first round. Teams can find right tackles and guards anywhere, so burning top-10 picks on those positions is completely irresponsible.
The Jaguars have to be the worse of the two offenders. I can see the Titans taking Chance Warmack because they have to make sure Jake Locker and Chris Johnson succeed, but Jacksonville’s selection of Luke Joeckel is downright embarrassing, especially when considering that the front office came out and said that they see Joeckel as a cornerstone at right tackle for years. With $26 million in cap space, the Jaguars could have signed Andre Smith, Tyson Clabo or Eric Winston. They should have drafted Dion Jordan or even Ezekiel Ansah. Elite pass-rushers don’t grow on trees. Right tackles do.
2. Speaking of the Jaguars, it’s been rumored that they will take cornerback Johnthan Banks atop the second round. Banks is the type of tall, lanky corner that Gus Bradley wants on his defense, so the pick is fine. The decision to ignore quarterback again is not. When general manager David Caldwell said that he plans on building around Blaine Gabbert, I figured that was a smokescreen. Apparently not. I can’t possibly imagine what Caldwell is thinking, but maybe he’s aiming to have the No. 1 pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. Maybe he’ll even take another right tackle No. 1 overall.
3. Another team not expected to take a quarterback surprisingly is the Eagles. The Philadelphia Inquirer published an article saying that the vibe isn’t there for Geno Smith. That’s two teams expected to pass on Smith, so you have to wonder how far he’s going to fall.
4. It was shocking to see the other mobile quarterback, E.J. Manuel, go ahead of Smith. I gave it a “Millen” grade, as seen in my 2013 NFL Draft Grades page. Buffalo fans were quick to defend this draft choice, but Matt Miller brought up a great point on Twitter: Would the Bills be defending the Manuel selection had the Jets selected him? Would they praise New York for making a good pick? Probably not.
5. “E.J. Manuel” was the answer to the question my Web host, Kenneth Ortiz, asked me last night. I was on the phone with Kenny trying to figure out what caused the two Web site crashes yesterday. Apparently, it was not a traffic issue, as we had 12 servers running. There was a corrupt file somewhere, and that prompted the crashes and slow-downs.
Anyway, Kenny, who’s in a fantasy league of mine, asked me whom I thought this year’s best fantasy football rookie would be. It remains to be seen where these running backs will go, but I said Manuel. If he starts, he’ll pick up tons of rushing yards and several touchdowns on the ground. He could be a high-upside QB2. I posted my updated 2013 Fantasy Football Rankings and stock reports on Wednesday.
6. I’ve seen many question the Jets’ pick of Sheldon Richardson. Why take a 3-4 defensive end for the third year in a row? Well, New York uses tons of 4-3 looks, so Richardson was not drafted as a backup. He’ll be an interior pass-rusher when the Jets show their frequent 4-3s.
More scheme confusion: I was baffled by the Dion Jordan selection at first but then wrote that it’s possible Miami could be moving to a 3-4. E-mailer Dave K. agrees:
You think that Dion Jordan doesn’t fit the defensive scheme, what about Jared Odrick? And come to think about it Soliai makes better sense as a NT. Oh and Cam Wake might make a good 3-4 OLB. Didn’t we have linebacker depth as an issue? I think I am starting to see a trend here…
Odrick Soliai Starks
Jordan Ellerbe Wheeler Wake
7. It’s one thing for analysts not to know teams’ schemes. It’s another for teams to not know their own schemes. When asked why they passed on Sharrif Floyd at No. 18, the Cowboys said that Floyd didn’t work in their defense. Funny, because the Vikings drafted him five picks later, and they essentially run the same scheme. Jerry Jones must think he still has a 3-4. It’s really amazing. And then he compounded that by drafting a third-round guard prospect at No. 31. That earned the second Millen grade from me.
8. I’m really kicking myself today. I had Manti Te’o going in the second round of my 2013 NFL Mock Draft for the longest time, but so many insders – Adam Schefter, John Clayton, among others – were adamant in saying that Te’o was a first-rounder. Upon hearing this, I second-guessed myself and slotted Te’o at No. 25. Blegh!
The fall should be surprising to no one. Te’o’s presence will cause the media to create a Tim Tebow-like distraction. The team that drafts him will need a strong locker room to handle this. The Bears and the Ravens could be candidates, but I’m not so sure about the former because Chicago has a first-year head coach. Not sure Marc Trestman wants to deal with that. Baltimore could be the best fit.
9. I mentioned this in my 2013 NFL Draft Blog, but major dap needs to be given to CBS’ Dane Brugler, who was the first to call Eric Fisher to the Chiefs. I don’t like the pick though because the Kansas City scouts wanted Luke Joeckel. Fisher won out because Andy Reid coveted him. The thing is that these scouts have been watching Joeckel and Fisher extremely carefully for a year. Reid, meanwhile, hasn’t paid any attention to these prospects until the Senior Bowl. That’s what makes this selection so highly questionable.
10. My top-10 available players for the second round:
You can see where I have these prospects in my 2013 NFL Mock Re-Draft. I’ll be updating that with some changes in a couple of hours.
2013 NFL Draft Mailbag:
Here are various 2013 NFL Draft-related questions I received on Facebook and my responses to them:
From Xavier P
Would it be better value for the Jets to take Geno in the 2nd round or would they be better served taking a guard like Warford or a WR like Hunter or Allen?
–> I would take Geno Smith. There’s just so much value there. I know that many second-round quarterbacks have failed, but having one pan out is absolutely huge for a franchise. Just look at the 49ers.
From Brian B
Where do you expect Da’Rick rogers to go. Would Tennessee be a possibility in the third round
–> I don’t see why not. The Titans like taking players in the southeastern part of the country, so Da’Rick Rogers would fit. They need a wideout.
From Patrick M
Better fit for Bengals: Lacy or Bernard?
–> I’d say Bernard, but I hear they like Lacy a lot.
From Zachary T
Would you agree that Geno Smith is this year’s Jimmy Clausen?
–> No, but only because I didn’t write an article for USA Today saying that Smith should be drafted first overall.
From Erik N
Should the chargers go back to back with Olineman? or go defense in the 2nd?
–> If an offensive lineman is anywhere near the top of their board, they have to go with him. If not, defense or offensive play-maker.
From Nathan T
Have you noticed that the two areas considered strongest in this draft dominated the first round? The first seven picks were on either the defensive or offensive lines, and only six of the first 20 picks were NOT on the two lines… Do you think that may have something to do why so many teams seemed to be reaching?
–> Oh, I definitely think so. Guards were flying off the board, so the teams that thought they needed one grabbed one early. Think of it as a run on a position in a fantasy drafts. The dumber league owners tend to reach at the end of that run. That’s exactly what happened Thursday night.
From Zain D
Should the Cowboys take another linemen in round 2?
–> That’d be nice, just as long as it’s not another reach. Dallas should go with the top player on its board for a change.
From Josh B
Will we see a run on QBs at the top of round 2?
–> It’s possible, but I have my doubts. As mentioned earlier in this article, it’s been reported that both the Eagles and Jaguars will pass on Geno Smith.
From Tom T.
Will the Nose Tackles keep falling?
–> I think so. I struggled to find fits for them in my mock draft, so NFL teams apparently can’t find fits for them as well.
From Gary C.
If Geno is taken by the Jaguars, is Nassib a good fit for Philly?
–> I think the quarterback Chip Kelly wants is Matt Scott out of Arizona.
From Joe L
1. Why are the Bills so dumb?
2. Who will the Lions take at 36?
–> I feel really bad for Buffalo fans that they have to deal with this inept front office. And I think they’ll go with either Menelik Watson or Justin Hunter.
From Mike S
How far does Lattimore fall, and who are his potential matches?
–> I have him in the fourth round, but I could see him going in the third. Any team with lots of draft picks could take him like the 49ers.
From Robert B
Is Jerry Jones really that stupid?
–> No. He’s even stupider. He spent a billion dollars on a scoreboard that gives people headaches!
From Nathan P
Large pepperoni pizza or grilled bacon cheeseburgers?
–> BACON CHEESEBURGERZZZZZ NOM NOM NOM NOM!!!
From Kevin J.
How would the entire draft process change if teams had to pick players based on who could throw a (cooked) hot dog the farthest while blindfolded and wading hip deep in Jello? As a followup, what percentage of players do you think would be dumb enough to eat the hot dog before they threw it in the above scenario?
–> I think you’re on to something. The NFL Draft has great ratings now, but imagine if the league did something like this.
From Timothy D.
What do Manti Te’o’s girlfriend and the NFL have in common? No one really loves Manti Te’o!
–> I was going to say, “They both got into car crashes,” but that works.
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