NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2024 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2024): 7-7-1 (-$975)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2024): 6-7-1 (-$1,275)
2024 NFL Picks: 78-79-7 (-$4,565)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

---

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

Week 10 Analysis: We lost about $1,000 on Sunday. Despite this, I’m proud of my handicapping, save for one game. As usual, we’ve had insane levels of bad luck. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Vikings, 5 units (loss): We begin right away with one of the two horrible-luck games. We had the Vikings at -7, and they won by five. The Vikings outgained the Jaguars, 402-143. They averaged 1.6 more yards per play. They didn’t cover because Sam Darnold threw two interceptions into the end zone, as well as one other pick in Jacksonville territory. Had just one of those three possessions ended in a field goal instead of an interception, we would have covered. The Jaguars did absolutely nothing all afternoon and had no business staying within five.

49ers, 4 units (loss): Here’s the other horrible-luck game. The 49ers were -6, but won by three. They outgained the Buccaneers, 413-215, and they averaged 3.1 more yards per play. Let me repeat: They averaged 3.1 more yards per play! They didn’t cover because their kicker missed three field goals. The 49ers also gave the Buccaneers a free touchdown on a muffed punt. Tampa Bay, mostly like Jacksonville, did nothing all afternoon until the final drive where everyone saw Baker Mayfield stiff-arming Nick Bosa. Amazingly, Jake Moody hit the game-winning field goal to negate overtime and a potential push (or cover if you got -5.5) despite whiffing on three field goals beforehand, where any one of those kicks would have given us a cover/push. Unreal.

Bears, 4 units (loss): Here’s where I screwed up. I completely misread Chicago’s injury situation concerning the offensive line. I somehow missed that the Bears had cluster injuries at tackle. When I opened the Ourlads depth chart while constructing my final thoughts, I saw so much red (injury) on the offensive line that I immediately got scared off and lowered the unit count from five to four. I should have gone straight to zero. This was irresponsible on my part, and I apologize for this horrible mistake.

Chargers, 5 units (win): This was an easy one. The Chargers completely dominated the final three quarters of the game.

Eagles, 3 units (win): This was even easier. I’m disappointed that we didn’t go more than three units on the Eagles.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins have possessed one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL this year, but they were a bit stymied last week. They scored 27 points, but seven came on a rare Pittsburgh special teams gaffe. Jayden Daniels hit some big pass plays, but struggled to run. He was limited to five rushing yards.

Daniels will have better success scrambling in this game because the Eagles don’t have T.J. Watt on the edge. However, the Eagles have great talent on the front and can generate lots of pressure on the quarterback. Despite the great success he’s achieved early in his career, Daniels is not protected well, so the blocking could be an issue in this game.

The Eagles tend to cover and play the run well, so I have to wonder how the Redskins will consistently move the chains in this game. Daniels will be in long-distance situations often, so he could be forced into some turnovers as he combats the league’s No. 1 EPA defense.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Redskins also generate pressure at a high clip. Jalen Hurts won’t have to worry as much about this as Daniels, however, because the Eagles have a better offensive line. It’s not as good as it used to be, but it’s a stellar unit that will keep Hurts mostly safe.

There is another reason why Hurts won’t be bothered by the pass rush, and that would be Saquon Barkley. The Redskins have a run-funnel defense, and Barkley will be able to expose this liability. Barkley didn’t even have a huge workload last week because Philadelphia was saving him for this matchup.

Barkley will set up Hurts in favorable down-and-distance situations, which will be key against an improved secondary. Marshon Lattimore didn’t play last week, but there’s a chance that Washington was keeping him out of the lineup to preserve him for this game. Lattimore will be crucial in limiting A.J. Brown, as the Redskins didn’t have a prayer against him prior to the trade deadline.

RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

Unfortunately, these teams are close to even. I’d give the Eagles the edge with how dominant their defense has been since the bye, but there’s not a wide enough gap between Philadelphia and Washington to designate any sort of edge in this matchup.

However, there is one thing I worry about for the Redskins, and that would be a rookie quarterback preparing for a game in just three days. Hurts has done this before, but Daniels hasn’t. We’ve seen one rookie quarterback play on Thursday night this year. Bo Nix won in a blowout over the Saints, but he didn’t play very well. Denver won in spite of Nix, dominating the severely short-handed Saints.

I’m going to side with the Eagles at -3.5, but I don’t plan on betting this game outside of player props and the same-game parlay. I would have some interest in potentially betting Philadelphia at -3, but those lines quickly disappeared.

Our Week 11 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Brian Robinson and Jordan Mailata are set to return for their respective teams. I’m still leaning toward the Eagles, but don’t plan on betting this game.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Eagles preserved Saquon Barkley last week. They saved him for this matchup, and it’s a good one for Barkley. The Redskins are awful against the run, and Philadelphia figures to be playing from ahead. The best line is over 92.5 rushing yards -110 at FanDuel.

FanDuel also has a special that Evan pointed out to me: Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels to combine for 100+ rushing yards and 2+ rushing touchdowns at +700. This is a primetime game, so I expect both quarterbacks to go all out to win this big game. I’m betting 0.5 units on this.

I’m throwing in Barkley’s rushing yards prop with the following: Dallas Goedert over 33.5 receiving yards, A.J. Brown under 5.5 receptions, Zach Ertz over 33.5 receiving yards. Both tight ends have good matchups, so I think they’ll both perform well. As for Brown, he makes big plays, but has just one game with more than five catches this year. This $25 parlay pays $224.06 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jordan Mailata and Brian Robinson will play, but the Redskins won’t have Marshon Lattimore. This would sway me to bet the Eagles at -3, but not -3.5. The thing is, -3.5 isn’t even available anymore, as some sharp action on Philadelphia brought the line up to -4 in some places. The best vig is the standard -110 found at BetMGM and Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 59% (269,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Eagles have won 11 of the last 14 meetings.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I felt like such an idiot watching the Chicago game. I recognized the team’s offensive line woes, specifically at tackle, too late to make a full adjustment. I dropped the unit count from five to four, but it wasn’t enough.

It was almost laughable. Caleb Williams’ accuracy was all over the place against the Patriots, but he didn’t have a chance. He took nine sacks from a Patriot team that wasn’t generating much pressure on the quarterback. New England has the 10th-worst pressure rate in the NFL. The Packers, by contrast, are 11th in pressure rate, but that’s misleading because they don’t blitz often. In fact, Green Bay has the best pressure rate for any NFL team that doesn’t blitz at least 20 percent of the time.

Williams will need at least one of his tackles back in action. If either Darnell Wright or Braxton Jones returns, Williams will have a chance to survive Green Bay’s defense. He’ll also be able to hand the ball off successfully to D’Andre Swift, given that Green Bay has a weaker run defense.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Like Williams, “No Cookie” Jordan Love had his struggles in his previous game. His poor play wasn’t purely performance related, however, as he was hindered by a groin problem. Love couldn’t move out of pressure, which led to a pick-six. He also couldn’t move in the 2-minute drill on a downfield pass to spike the ball to stop the clock.

I’d be worried about Love if he didn’t have a bye week, but he’s had plenty of time to heal. He should be close to 100 percent, and if so, he’ll be able to capitalize off some positive opportunities created by his running game.

It’ll be shocking if the Packers don’t get chunks of yardage on the ground. While the Bears have a strong defense against the pass, they’re weak to the run, so Josh Jacobs will put Williams in short-yardage situations. Love will be able to target all of his talented receivers without having to deal with too many third-and-longs.

RECAP: As I mentioned in the prior pick capsule, I made a huge mistake betting the Bears at -6. I didn’t account for all the injuries on their offensive line. Williams was sacked nine times, which wasn’t a surprise in the slightest.

It’s too early to make a determination on this game because we don’t know the status of the injured offensive linemen I discussed above. If one of the tackles practices fully and returns, I’ll be comfortable siding with the Bears. We’re getting amazing line value with them, after all. The advance spread on this game was Green Bay -2.5, and now it’s -6, which is way too drastic for one game. And it really is only one game because the Packers are coming off a bye.

If the Bears will get their linemen back from injury, then this spread movement is completely unwarranted, and I’ll happily grab the +6. If, however, Chicago’s offensive line will continue to be a disaster, then I’ll side with the Packers, but I don’t know if I can bet them because it’s unclear if Love is 100 percent off the groin injury that hindered him in Week 9.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I like the idea of taking the Bears more with Shane Waldron fired. Also, Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright were limited on Wednesday, so that’s a good sign for Chicago. I may end up betting the Bears, but we’ll see how the rest of the week goes.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing here because there are too many injury question marks with Josh Jacobs and the Chicago offensive line.

SATURDAY NOTES: Teven Jenkins is out, but the Bears will have both tackles available. Both tackles practiced fully on Friday, which is what I wanted to see. I’m going to be betting a couple of units on Chicago.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been on both sides of this game. I still like Chicago for a couple of units. I was hoping to get a viable +6, and we certainly got one. You can get Bears +6 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -2.5.

Computer Model: Packers -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 81% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 19 of the last 21 meetings.

Packers are 65-42 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 53-38 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -6.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 56 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 24-22 ATS through nine weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Vikings -7

Falcons -3.5

Chargers -7.5

Eagles -7.5

Bills -4.5

The public lost their top two plays, but won the next three. The public is now 27-24.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Saints -1

Chiefs +2.5

Lions -13

Packers -6

Bengals +1.5

All make sense except for the Bengals. I’m a bit surprised by that, but maybe I shouldn’t be because no one recognized that the Chargers are a good team yet.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints lost Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, but everything is OK now because Marquez Valdes-Scantling is here to save the day. Valdes-Scantling inexplicably scored two touchdowns last week in a surprise upset over Atlanta.

If you couldn’t tell by my sarcasm, I’d be shocked if that happens again. If the Saints are going to depend on Valdes-Scantling for their passing attack, they’re going to be very disappointed, especially against Cleveland. The Browns can bring the heat with Myles Garrett, which ruins any chance for New Orleans to have a deep passing game because Carr isn’t well protected. Carr won’t have much time in the backfield when facing down Garrett.

Carr won’t be able to lean on Alvin Kamara either. The Browns are outstanding against the run, and they also handle pass-catching backs rather well. It’s going to be a difficult afternoon for New Orleans’ offense.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Conversely, the Browns won’t have much of an issue scoring. Jameis Winston is coming off a rough three-interception performance, but he played well the prior week against the Ravens. New Orleans’ current defense is closer to Baltimore’s than the Chargers’, except that unlike the Ravens, the Saints can’t stop the run.

Nick Chubb hasn’t been very good since his return from injury, but another two weeks should help him. It’s also worth noting that he has stared down some tough run defenses (Ravens, Chargers). The Saints are woeful against the run, so Chubb should have his best performance of the season.

Chubb’s solid running will make things even easier for Winston. The Saints are down their top three cornerbacks, so Winston will have open receivers at his disposal. New Orleans is particularly poor to tight ends and slot receivers, so David Njoku and Elijah Moore figure to thrive the most.

RECAP: This is a great spot to fade the Saints. I love going against bad teams coming off victories because they have major issues sustaining success. The Saints are obviously a bad team, and they don’t have a real football coach. Not that Dennis Allen was any good, but Darren Rizzi can only give them so much. Remember, Jeff Saturday won his first game, and then failed to win after that.

The Saints have so many injuries, so it’s going to be difficult for them to be competitive most weeks. I know they just beat Atlanta, but the Falcons were unfocused, and yet they even outgained New Orleans, 468-365. The Saints, with Valdes-Scantling as the top receiving option, don’t have much of a chance, especially against a talented defense.

I also like that we’re getting a Browns team that was embarrassed prior to the bye. Cleveland beat the Ravens, but then was in an obvious down spot – the same one the Saints are in now – against the Chargers, who have crushed bad teams this year. The Browns have had two weeks to stew about this defeat, so I believe they’ll be motivated.

Furthermore, I have the Browns as the better team, so I believe they should be favored in this matchup. My line and the actual spread are only two points apart across zero, but it’s another reason to love Cleveland. I’m considering this as my November NFL Pick of the Month.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Cleveland players missed practice Wednesday, so that’s great news. The Saints had two DNPs of note on Wednesday: Lucas Patrick and Pete Werner.

PLAYER PROPS: The Saints are the worst team in the NFL against slot receivers. Elijah Moore has been more productive over the past three games, so I like him to go over the receiving yards total in this game. The best line is over 37.5 receiving yards -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Pete Werner is out, but Lucas Patrick and Erik McCoy could be back for the Saints. This is great for their chances to combat Cleveland’s pass rush, but they still have other problems like their receiving corps and cornerbacks. The Browns are the better team at almost every position, and every AFC North team has clobbered the NFC South opponent on the road this year. I don’t see why this game would be any different. I’m certain this will be my November NFL Pick of the Month, but I also love Houston.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Browns. They’ve taken this line from +1.5 to -2 in many sportsbooks. Let’s hope the Browns don’t win by only one (or lose, obviously) because this is my November NFL Pick of the Month. The best line is Browns -1.5 -108 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Saints just pulled off a big upset. The Browns were blown out prior to the bye.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Browns -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -1.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

So much money on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 72% (112,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Saints -1.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

Our friend Nephtali is back! We talked to him last week, and the conversation continued the next day.

I can’t imagine ever bragging about betting six-team teasers. If I ever reach that stage of insanity, please lock me up in a mental ward.

Anyway, Nephtali began talking about paying for BANGER VIP plays, which sounds like a scam:

Imagine paying for a package with just three picks all year. That’s worse than betting six-team teasers.

I was trolling him at this point, but the whole thing seems sketchy. I joked about Nephtali sending nudes to this guy last week, but I may have been on to something there.

I’m referring to the Supercontest and the Circa Million. All of this can be verified on their Web sites. It’s kind of dumb to laugh at that when it can easily be fact checked. It’s like telling someone rises in the east, and then that person laughing at you because they don’t believe you.

I provided proof that I went 5-0 there, which concluded our conversation.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: It was staggering to see how many mistakes the Rams committed Monday night. They’re a well-coached team, yet they constantly shot themselves in the foot with fumbles, penalties, and missed blocking assignments.

I’d be shocked if Sean McVay doesn’t fix things, even on a short week. The Chargers were guilty of a similar performance in Arizona, yet Jim Harbaugh corrected things just six days later. The Rams should be able to figure out their offensive line woes that stemmed from two talented players returning from injury. The Patriots have the 10th-worst pressure rate in the NFL despite the nine sacks they generated against Caleb Williams, so it should be easy to solve things against them.

The Patriots are also especially poor versus the run. Kyren Williams will have a huge performance, setting up Matthew Stafford in favorable passing situations. New England struggles against slot receivers, so Cooper Kupp should have a great game.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots didn’t do anything special on this side of the ball in their victory over the Bears. They refrained from making mistakes and engineered some scoring drives against a dysfunctional opponent.

That’s not going to fly against the Rams. New England won’t get Rhamondre Stevenson going because Los Angeles is stellar against the run. Stevenson and Antonio Gibson were able to hit 100 rushing yards against Chicago, but getting half as many yards on the ground could be a challenge versus the Rams.

Drake Maye will be operating in long-yardage situations, which will be a big problem because the Rams can generate lots of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Los Angeles is actually No. 1 in pressure rate, and the Patriots have major blocking woes, so Maye will be forced into some turnovers.

RECAP: The Rams had a surprising loss on Monday night. Not that suffering a defeat as a two-point favorite was shocking, but Los Angeles made a ton of mistakes under McVay, which seldom happens.

I like getting the Rams off such a loss. They’re very well coached, so I would expect them to play at their best, even after flying across the country on a short week. The Rams have done this four times under McVay, by the way, and they’re 3-1 against the spread in these situations.

While backing a good team like the Rams off a loss sounds good, fading a bad team like the Patriots off a victory seems even better. There’s a lot of money to be made going against poor teams coming off victories because they struggle to sustain success. The Rams seem like a great play for both reasons, and we’re getting a bit of line value, with the spread dropping a point because of the Week 10 results. Not that -5.5 to -4.5 is worth much, but it’s a 2.7-percent boost in our favor.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Those hoping for Rob Havenstein to return to action couldn’t be happy that he missed practice on Wednesday, but there’s still time for him to get back to the practice field.

PLAYER PROPS: Cooper Kupp had a rough return to action, but he’s been great the past two weeks. He should go over his receiving yards prop, especially given that the Patriots are one of the worst teams against slot receivers. The best number is over 67.5 receiving yards at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: No Rob Havenstein, but I’m not worried about that, given New England’s pedestrian pass rush. If I were on the Patriots, I’d be way more worried about them blocking the Rams. This could be like the Texans-Patriots blowout we saw a few weeks ago, to echo what Evan said on the show on Tuesday.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Patriots for some reason. I don’t get it, but that just means we’re getting a much better line. The best spread is -4 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Rams.

The Rams are a good team coming off a loss on national TV. The Patriots are a bad team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -5.5.

Computer Model: Rams -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Growing action on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 77% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Sean McVay is 8-5 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Opening Line: Rams -5.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 57 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

Contest Announcement time!

Our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

Also, our Survivor Contest has returned as well. It’s free to enter, and you can win $350!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens have the top-ranked offense in the NFL, but there’s reason to believe that they’ll struggle to score in this game. Just look at the previous point totals Lamar Jackson has compiled when battling Pittsburgh: 10, 16, 19, 24, and 14.

How have the Steelers restricted Jackson so well? Ever since Jackson won MVP for the first time in 2019, the Steelers built their roster to contain Jackson. They have very fast edge players who can limit Jackson’s runs to the outside. And we know the plan will work again because Pittsburgh just restricted Jayden Daniels to only five rushing yards.

The Ravens now have Derrick Henry to help counter what the Steelers are doing, but I don’t know how great of a counter this will be. The Steelers are great against the run, with only one rusher (Tyrone Tracy) beating expectations against them this year.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Ravens and Steelers have engaged in some fierce defensive battles over the years, but this game may not be categorized as such this time. While Pittsburgh has maintained a great stop unit, Baltimore is ranked 30th in adjusted defensive EPA.

The Ravens are horrible against the pass. Justin Fields wouldn’t have been able to take full advantage of this liability, but a vivified Russell Wilson may be able to do so. I’m as shocked as anyone, but Wilson has been pretty decent since taking over for Fields. Perhaps this will eventually regress to the mean, but Wilson’s moon balls will have a chance to be complete to George Pickens and Mike Williams, who will see more snaps this week.

Wilson will also be able to attack the middle of the field by throwing to Pat Freiermuth. The Ravens leave the middle of the field wide open, as we just saw when Tanner Hudson went ballistic against them. It’ll all be on Wilson, by the way, given that Baltimore is still stout against the run.

RECAP: We don’t really know where the money is going yet as of Tuesday afternoon, but I’d be shocked if the public didn’t end up pounding Baltimore. Taking the Ravens at -3 seems so easy, after all. Baltimore is everyone’s darling, and no one outside of western Pennsylvania believes in the Steelers.

I’m going to be on Pittsburgh. I believe Baltimore to be overrated because of its horrible secondary. Wilson’s moon balls will have a chance to land against the Ravens’ often-torched cornerbacks. The Steelers have the better defense, and they also have Mike Tomlin. Amazingly, Tomlin is 61-34 against the spread as an underdog. He’s even better as a divisional underdog, owning a 22-10 ATS record.

Also, it must be noted that the Steelers have dominated this rivalry. Pittsburgh built its defense to beat Jackson, and this is why it has defeated the Ravens in seven of the eight matchups since Jackson’s first MVP season. Baltimore’s lone win was by two points.

I like the Steelers a fair amount. I wish we were getting +3.5, which was the advance spread, but +3 is still good enough for a moderate wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both teams didn’t have a key player in practice on Wednesday, with Kyle Hamilton and Alex Highsmith being DNPs. Highsmith has been ruled out already, and it would be a surprise if Hamilton plays.

PLAYER PROPS: The Ravens have a weak pass defense. They leave the middle of the field wide open, and every tight end destroys them. I like the Pat Freiermuth over receiving yards. The best number is over 25.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Kyle Hamilton has no injury designation, which is obviously big for Baltimore. I still like the Steelers for a few units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, while the public has shockingly come in on the Steelers. That’s very surprising. I was hoping for a good +3.5 line. The best one is +3.5 -107 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.5.

Computer Model: Steelers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

This is a bit shocking.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 72% (139,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 7 of the last 8 meetings.

Mike Tomlin is 61-34 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Very slight chance of rain, 55 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa fantasy owners who were awaiting his return have been disappointed by the results thus far. Tagovailoa hasn’t been overly impressive since coming back from his concussion. He hasn’t even reached 240 passing yards in any of his three games.

There’s reason to believe that Tagovailoa will exceed that number in this game. He’s had two tough matchups the past two weeks, battling the Bills and Rams, both of whom have top-four EPA defenses. The Raiders are 29th. Their secondary is a mess, and they’re not getting as much pressure on the quarterback as they did last year, ranking in the middle of the pack.

The Raiders are especially weak to tight ends and pass-catching running backs. Jonnu Smith figures to do well, while De’Von Achane will run circles against the Raiders’ beleaguered defense.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders’ starting quarterback has also missed some time, though no one is awaiting Aidan O’Connell’s return. Gardner Minshew and Desmond Ridder both saw action in the previous game, and both were horrible.

Whether it’s Minshew or Ridder, the Raiders’ signal-caller will have to deal with lots of pressure in this game. The Dolphins don’t rank highly in pressure rate, but Zach Sieler returned from injury last week and had a huge impact. Miami puts tons of pressure on Matthew Stafford, who is protected much better than the Raider quarterbacks are.

It must be noted that the Dolphins suffered a couple of injuries to their cornerbacks on Monday night, so if Kendall Fuller and Kader Kohou can’t go, the Raiders might be able to have some success throwing the ball, especially in the fourth quarter in back-door territory.

RECAP: A great rule to follow concerning backup quarterbacks is to fade them automatically if they’re matched up against a top defense. Conversely, you can bet them if they’re going up against a mediocre or worse stop unit.

This obviously applies to the Raiders, but I don’t know what to make of Miami’s defense. The Dolphins are 22nd in adjusted defensive EPA. However, they looked so good Monday night. Perhaps this was the Rams just imploding for no reason, but the Miami stop unit looked like the real deal. It helped that Sieler was on the field and playing out of his mind. His presence is such a boon for the pass rush.

Sieler being on the field is very problematic for the Raiders, who can’t score. I know Miami’s offense has been shaky the past couple of weeks, but the Dolphins have gone up against some tough defenses, with the Bills and Rams both ranking in the top four of defensive EPA. Things will get much easier for the Dolphins, with the Raiders ranking 29th.

I’m leaning to the Dolphins at the moment, but I hate that we’re getting such poor value with the advance spread being -7. Also, there’s a chance the Dolphins could be down multiple cornerbacks, which would help the Raiders get a back-door cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line dropped from +7.5 to +7. Tyreek Hill missed Wednesday’s practice, and Gardner Minshew was announced as the Raiders’ quarterback. Las Vegas looks better now, but I’m still leaning Miami.

PLAYER PROPS: There are no player props posted as of Friday morning. Nothing really stands out anyway.

SATURDAY NOTES: I already didn’t want much to do with the Dolphins. If Terron Armstead is out, I may switch my pick to the Raiders. Armstead didn’t practice all week. He started by just having veteran rest, but a knee issue was added later in the week. Robert Jones was also limited in practice this week, so there’s a lot to watch for Sunday morning when the inactives list is released.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp money to speak of here, which is not a surprise. This line is all over the place. If you like the Raiders, you can get +8.5 at FanDuel. You can get -7.5 -110 at Caesars if you’re on Miami. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -7.

Computer Model: Dolphins -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Miami: 80% (89,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Dolphins are 32-47 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -7.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 78 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below. In addition to WalterFootball t-shirts, you can also buy AMC and GameStop stock gear as well!

DETROIT OFFENSE: Jared Goff just had the worst performance of his career, and yet his team still won. That’s pretty crazy. Goff was picked on five occasions – four if you discount the Hail Mary – but the Lions rallied against the Texans with a brilliant second half.

I would not expect a repeat performance from Goff. Houston has a top-10 defense, while the Jaguars are 28th. The Texans got after Goff pretty well, but the Jaguars have the third-worst pressure rate in the NFL. Goff will have plenty of time in the pocket to locate his weapons.

I would anticipate that Jahmyr Gibbs will out-play everyone in Detroit skill group. The Jaguars are miserable when trying to defend pass-catching running backs, and Gibbs obviously thrives in that role. Sam LaPorta would also have a great matchup, but he could be sidelined.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Lions had a tremendous defensive effort in the second half against the Texans. Houston didn’t score a single point. Given that outcome, it’s hard to imagine the Jaguars having any offensive success in this game.

Mac Jones is likely to be the starting quarterback again, so the Jaguars will need to get some production from their running backs to score at all. The issue there is that the Lions are terrific against the rush. Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby won’t get anything on the ground.

The Lions will be able to rattle Jones in third-and-long situations. Za’Darius Smith will make his Detroit debut, so the pass rush will improve against an offensive line missing some personnel because of injuries and the Cam Robinson trade.

RECAP: I still can’t believe the Jaguars covered last week. They scored just seven points and were outgained 402-143. It was ridiculous, as any one of Sam Darnold’s interceptions in Jacksonville territory transformed into a field goal would have given us the cover.

Though fading the Jaguars last week didn’t work, I’m going to do it again. Jones is a miserable quarterback and doesn’t stand a chance against a top-12 defense. The Lions are ranked 11th, and they’ll have an injection of talent with Smith taking the field this week. Detroit gets lots of turnovers, so it should force Jones into some mistakes.

The only possible issue is Detroit’s focus off a comeback win, but the team doesn’t have anything to look forward to – it plays the Colts next week – and Goff could be motivated to rebound after a ghastly five-interception performance. Besides, since the lockout, teams that have trailed by 16 or more points at halftime and then prevailed are 16-17-1 against the spread the following week, so there’s really not much to worry about regarding any possible fatigue from Detroit.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m locking this in at -13.5 -110 at ESPNBet. This spread has risen to -14 in all sportsbooks except for ESPNBet, so I wanted to get the -13.5 there before it disappeared. Fourteen is the No. 4 key number, so getting -13.5 is crucial. Trevor Lawrence has been announced to be out, so this should be a lopsided game.

PLAYER PROPS: Amon-Ra St. Brown has caught touchdowns in seven consecutive games. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns this year. There’s no Sam LaPorta, so St. Brown will have a better chance of catching a touchdown. There’s a 30-percent profit boost on FanDuel, but has a $25 limit, so if you bet $100 average it out, you get +113 instead of +105. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Sam LaPorta is out, but Taylor Decker is returning. I’ll take that trade any day. Also, this has nothing to do with this game, but the Lions are set to get back Emmanuel Moseley or Ifeatu Melifonwu this week or next. That’ll be a huge upgrade to the secondary, given that neither has played all year.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were on the Lions earlier in the week when the line was at -12.5 and -13. Those numbers are long gone. The best line now is -13.5 -112 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -14.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -10.

Computer Model: Lions -9.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

No surprise.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 85% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Jaguars are 65-109 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 21-53 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: Lions -10.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: What an embarrassment. Sam Darnold was horrendous last week. He moved the chains well in between the 20s, but he self-destructed in the red zone. He threw three interceptions deep in Jacksonville territory, including two on attempts into the end zone. As a result, the Vikings scored just 12 points when they should’ve had a much greater offensive output.

Darnold will be able to redeem himself in this game. The Titans are likely to once again miss both starting cornerbacks. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison should be able to take advantage of their quality matchups.

Darnold could also look to Aaron Jones as a receiving threat out of the backfield. The Titans are strong against the run, but they have weak linebackers who allow significant yardage to receiving backs.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: One reason I loved the Vikings last week was that their excellent defense was going to befuddle Mac Jones. That’s exactly what happened, as Jones led the Jaguars to just seven points. Unfortunately, Darnold sabotaged what should have been a sure cover.

I feel similarly about this matchup. Will Levis has plenty of talent, but there’s nothing upstairs. It shouldn’t shock anyone that Levis is horrendous against the blitz. His completion percentage plummets by 10.8 percentage points, while his YPA falls by 0.8. He has thrown six touchdown and four interceptions when not blitzed, but when he’s blitzed, he has one touchdown and three interceptions.

The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the NFL. Brian Flores will confuse Levis all day long, and there will be interceptions to make up for the rare pick-free performance last week. Levis won’t be able to lean on his rushing attack either, as only one running back (Jahmyr Gibbs) has exceeded expectations against Minnesota this year.

RECAP: OK, let’s try this again. We bet the Vikings heavily last week against the Jaguars, but got screwed out of a cover. We’re going to bet the Vikings as a road favorite at an AFC South opponent once again.

This won’t be a five-unit wager, but it’ll be a substantial bet. If the Vikings don’t shoot themselves in the foot again, they won’t have an issue covering. The Titans are a horrible team that is quarterbacked poorly. This is an awful matchup for Levis, who will be confused by what Flores is sending at him. Tennessee won’t be scoring very much, so it’ll be up to Darnold to not throw interceptions for a change. Given that he had such an issue with it last week, I have to imagine that he’ll be more careful with the football this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: L’Jarius Sneed missed Wednesday’s practice, and if that wasn’t bad enough, Tennessee’s slot corner, Roger McCreary, also missed Wednesday’s practice. The Titans could be down their top three cornerbacks against Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, which seems way too difficult to overcome.

PLAYER PROPS: You guys know where I’m going with this. Will Levis is an interception machine. He sucks against the blitz, and the Vikings blitz at the highest clip in the NFL. Minnesota also has the most interceptions in the league. What could possibly happen!? The best number is over 0.5 interceptions -145 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: We can confirm that the Titans won’t have both starting cornerbacks, which should make Sam Darnold’s life easier. The Vikings don’t have a single player on the injury report (not including injured reserve).

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp action on this game. I was hoping for a viable -5.5 line. The best I see is -5.5 -120 at FanDuel. I don’t want to pay 20 cents for six. So, we’re going to take -6 -105 at ESPNBet.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Vikings may be looking ahead to the Bears next week, but probably not.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -5.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

All Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 89% (101,0000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Titans are 30-21 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Vikings -6.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Very slight chance of rain, 66 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: It’s November, which means it’s time for two individuals to duke it out to see who is better. I’m referring to Mega Man 2 battles, of course! Take a look at this AI fight between all of the robots:

I’m not going to spoil it, but I’m shocked by the winner. I will say though that it’s pretty unfair to match up Bubble Man versus Metal Man in Round 1. That’s like a 1 vs. 16 in the NCAA Tournament!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Cardinals don’t have a terrible defense, but I wouldn’t say they have a good one either. Thus, it’s absolutely shocking that the Jets scored only six points last week. With all of their talent, they should have been able to score into the low 20s at the very least.

The Cardinals were able to restrict ethe Jets’ offense by sending blitzes at Aaron Rodgers. This is not something Arizona does frequently, but it did last week, and it worked like a charm. Rodgers hasn’t thrown many interceptions when blitzed this year, but he automatically settles for the closest checkdown possible, which is why his YPA drops by 1.6 when blitzed.

My point in all of this is that Rodgers should have much more success this week because the Colts don’t blitz at all. I don’t trust Gus Bradley to make any adjustments either, so Rodgers will be able to rebound. Rodgers will also be able to lean on his rushing attack, given that Indianapolis is incredibly weak to the rush.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Jets didn’t have the only offense that disappointed last week. The Colts were also a disaster. They scored 20 points, but seven came in the final seconds of garbage time. Joe Flacco was largely to blame, as he threw three interceptions. He could have easily been picked on several other occasions.

Flacco was supposed to be the safe quarterback, so if he performs like this, the Colts might as well go back to Anthony Richardson. This could be Flacco’s final career start, as the Jets have plenty of talent in their secondary. Sauce Gardner and company aren’t having the best seasons, but they also won’t have to worry about Michael Pittman Jr., who is dealing with a back injury.

Like the Jets, the Colts will be able to run the ball. New York is incredibly weak to running backs – both as rushers as pass-catchers – so Jonathan Taylor figures to compile significant yardage to potentially limit Flacco’s turnovers.

RECAP: I normally have interest in good teams that get blown out the previous week. These teams tend to rebound after embarrassing performances for obvious reasons. Some may argue that the Jets aren’t a good team, but they certainly have plenty of talent. Under regular circumstances, I’d be betting them heavily in this favorable spot.

However, I just can’t pull the trigger on a wager. I wrote in my NFL Game Recaps page that the Jets’ loss to Arizona felt like a funeral for the team. Maybe I’m overreacting, but the Jets seemed completely dead. If they were coached well, they could perhaps revive and bounce back with a victory, but the problem is that they’re not coached well. In fact, they’re one of the worst-coached teams in the NFL. They can’t make any adjustments, and they’ve been out-maneuvered in every game.

Despite what I just wrote, I’m going to side with the Jets. I won’t bet them, but I have no desire to back an anemic Flacco, who has become a turnover machine. I also like that Rodgers won’t face much of a blitz this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Anthony Richardson will start. This caused the line to drop to +3.5, but then people remembered how bad Richardson is, and the line moved back to +4.

PLAYER PROPS: Anthony Richardson will be desperate to retain his starting job, so I like him to run a lot. The Jets give up lots of rushing yards to mobile quarterbacks. The best number is over 36.5 rushing yards -115 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts won’t have two starting offensive linemen, as they’ll be without their left tackle and center. The Jets also won’t have their left tackle, with Tyron Smith sidelined with a neck injury. I still have no strong opinion on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was considering betting the Colts, but they have offensive line injuries. The sharps are on the Jets (at -3.5). This is not a surprise because the sharps have been on the Jets every week. The best line is +4 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -3.5.

Computer Model: Jets -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 56% (84,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Aaron Rodgers is 131-94 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 40-25 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Jets -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Cloudy, 61 degrees. Light wind.