NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2024 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2024): 6-10 (+$325)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2024): 6-9-1 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2024): 10-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2024): 10-4-2 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2024): 4-10 (-$1,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2024): 7-6-1 (-$555)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2024): 6-9 (-$660)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2024): 7-7-1 (-$975)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2024): 6-7-1 (-$1,275)
2024 NFL Picks: 78-79-7 (-$4,565)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

---

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Christian McCaffrey had a mixed debut. He didn’t get too much work in the first half because Kyle Shanahan deemed the conditions to be “too hot.” McCaffrey stood out more in the second half and didn’t get hurt, but then again, he didn’t improve the red zone offense, which has been a huge problem for San Francisco all year. The 49ers went 1-of-3 in the red zone.

McCaffrey should be able to handle more of a workload in his second game back from injury. He’ll have an easy matchup, too, as the Seahawks have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.

Brock Purdy will benefit from McCaffrey’s presence. Purdy had a great performance against the Seahawks in the first meeting between these teams anyway. Of Purdy’s weapons, I expect Deebo Samuel to have the best showing. Samuel always torments the Seahawks, and I don’t know why this time would be any different.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks didn’t have as much success against the 49ers in that prior meeting. The score and stats may say otherwise, but the Seahawks were getting blown out in that game. They produced most of their offensive output in garbage time.

The Seahawks fell behind because they couldn’t establish Kenneth Walker on the ground or D.K. Metcalf through the air. The 49ers are one of the best teams in the NFL at stopping the run, so I wouldn’t expect Walker’s fortunes to reverse. Walker can, however, do some damage as a receiver out of the backfield because San Francisco allows yards to pass-catching backs.

As for Metcalf, he also doesn’t project well because the 49ers are so stingy to opposing No. 1 receivers. Dating back to Week 3, no top wideout has exceeded expectations against the 49ers. No. 2 receivers have done well, so I’d expect Tyler Lockett to have a rare standout performance.

RECAP: We had a big play on the 49ers back when they played the Seahawks in Week 6. San Francisco, at -3.5, covered easily with a 12-point victory. Are we going to bet the 49ers once again? No. We’ll be on them as a selection, but this will not be a wager.

The 49ers had a couple of edges in the prior matchup that they will not possess this time. First, the initial matchup was on a short week, which is a huge benefit to the superior team. Second, Brandon Aiyuk played in that game. Sure, McCaffrey didn’t play, but it’s not like McCaffrey is 100 percent at the moment.

Speaking of McCaffrey, he was supposed to enhance San Francisco’s red zone offense, which didn’t occur last week. As mentioned earlier, the 49ers were just 1-of-3 in the red zone, and it didn’t help that Jake Moody missed three field goals. Until the 49ers fix their woeful red zone offense, I can’t bet them as a favorite or more than three points unless they’re battling a terrible team. Threes – or zeroes – won’t fly, and that’s why the 49ers couldn’t cover last week.

Then again, I’m not planning on betting the Seahawks either. I don’t think they’re a good team. Their defense sucks, while their blocking is shaky. I like that they’re coming off a bye, but this line isn’t high enough to warrant siding with them.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -9.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 52% (6,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won the last 6 meetings.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: .

The Matchup. Edge: None.

I told you about my two books, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen and a Safety and a Field Goal! Well, I’ve written a third book that was released this past spring! It’s called Jerks of the College Years. If you like Jerks of the Week, you’ll like Jerks of the College Years, as it’s a collection of weirdos I wrote about during my time at Penn State.

You can support the site by buying this book and spreading the word!

DENVER OFFENSE: Bo Nix did a great job of bouncing back last week. He didn’t have a great game overall, but he engineered a masterful final drive to put the Broncos in position to win. The potential game-winning field goal was blocked, of course.

Nix should be able to put together a strong performance this week, based on the matchup. It’s certainly an easy one, as the Falcons have been a huge disappointment defensively this year. They added so much talent to this side of the ball, yet they can’t cover No. 1 receivers or tight ends, thanks to their inability to get to the quarterback. Nix will have plenty of time in the pocket, thanks to Atlanta’s second-worst pressure rate, so Courtland Sutton figures to have a big game. Lucas Krull would also have a big game if he were any good.

The Falcons are better against the run than the pass, so Denver’s running back switch won’t have too much of an impact. The Broncos have decided to swap in Audric Estime for Javonte Williams, but I don’t think there’s much of a difference in their talent levels.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Broncos are thought of as one of the better defenses in the NFL, but that’s actually not true. They’re ranked 14th in defensive EPA, as the Ravens exposed them as being overrated.

The Broncos can’t cover the middle of the field, so the Falcons have a natural edge in this game with Kyle Pitts. The former No. 4 overall pick is seen as a bust in some circles, but he’s been terrific this season, taking advantage of most of his positive matchups. He should be able to dominate against Denver.

Not everything will work for the Falcons, as Patrick Surtain II will smother Drake London. I don’t expect much from the Falcons’ other receivers, though Bijan Robinson should have a fine performance. Derrick Henry ran well two weeks ago despite Denver’s high ranking against the rush, so Robinson could pick up where Henry left off.

RECAP: I don’t like this game from a betting perspective. I’m really not a fan of either team. The Falcons have long been overrated because their defense is so bad. The Broncos have also been overvalued, as they’ve gotten their wins against teams in bad spots. For example, they got the Buccaneers right after Tampa had beaten the Lions in a playoff revenge game. They upset the Jets when New York had a flight to Europe coming up. They crushed the Saints when New Orleans was missing half of its roster.

I think the Falcons are the better team, so I’m going to side with them. There’s also a chance that the Broncos will be deflated after their blocked field goal loss to the Chiefs, but that’s just speculation.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -2.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

The Falcons are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 62% (9,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Broncos -1.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Walt Goes to Vegas 2024, Part 8: Miracle at the Las Vegas Airport.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It seemed as though the Chiefs figured out their offensive woes in their Monday night victory against the Buccaneers. Patrick Mahomes had his best game of the season in a 30-point performance. Instead, it was the Chiefs taking advantage of an injury-ravaged defense that wasn’t good in the first place.

The Chiefs laid an egg against the Broncos, but were bailed out by the blocked field goal. Granted, it was a tough matchup, but so is this one. The Bills have the league’s fourth-ranked EPA defense. That’s not even factoring in Matt Milano’s potential return, as Milano has been cleared to practice. He won’t play in this game, barring a miracle, but the Bills still match up very well against Kansas City. They’re only weak to running backs and slot receivers. Kareem Hunt has been solid in fantasy football, but he’s not good in real life. Xavier Worthy, meanwhile, has been a huge disappointment.

Kansas City will obviously want to attack with Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins. The Bills are strong against outside receivers, though they’ve been weaker to tight ends lately. Travis Kelce has been on a tear since Rashee Rice was lost for the season, so he could continue to play at a very high level.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills also have a matchup edge with their tight end. The Chiefs are one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending tight ends. Dalton Kincaid should be able to take great advantage of this matchup. Kincaid has been a disappointment as a fantasy player this year, but every tight end has crushed the Chiefs, even Isaiah Likely back in Week 1.

The only other area in which the Chiefs are weak is to No. 2 receivers. They tend to double team top threats, so Amari Cooper isn’t expected to do much even if he’s able to return from injury. Keon Coleman would project well, but he’s also hurt. There’s also Khalil Shakir, but the Chiefs have allowed just one slot receiver (Ladd McConkey in Week 4) to beat expectations against them.

The Chiefs are stellar elsewhere. They lock down top receiving threats and the running game. James Cook won’t be able to do much, so Josh Allen may have to scramble more than he would like. Allen hasn’t run much this year compared to prior seasons, but perhaps he’s been saving his legs for big games like this one.

RECAP: I wish I had a strong opinion on this game because it’s the biggest matchup of the regular season. The defending Super Bowl champions will be battling their biggest non-divisional rival in a matchup that could decide the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Who wouldn’t want to bet on that?

The problem is that I just don’t know where to go with it. Common sense says that the Chiefs are the right play. They’re undefeated, and yet they’re 2.5-point underdogs. If all they do is win, wouldn’t it make sense to back them as underdogs?

The public certainly believes the Chiefs are easy money, but there’s a case to be made for Buffalo as well. The Bills built their roster to beat the Chiefs, which they’ve done often in the regular season. Also, Kansas City can’t possibly win every game, so the team is bound to lose eventually. If it’s going to happen, why wouldn’t it against such a great team like the Bills?

I’m going to side with the Bills, but I don’t like the idea of fading Mahomes as an underdog.

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -1.

Computer Model: Bills -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

The Chiefs are a massive public dog.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 82% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 93-24 SU, 63-52 ATS (49-39 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Bills are 31-44 ATS in their last 75 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Bills -1.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

The Matchup. Edge: None.

I’m using this section to promote things from friends and readers of the Web site. If you want something promoted, shoot me an e-mail.

My friend Spencer sells pickles in the Philadelphia area. They are awesome, particularly the spicy pickles and the Thai pickles. There are different kinds as well. If you love pickles, consider buying them from Spencer at his site, Pickle Dude.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Joe Burrow did all he could last Thursday night, but it wasn’t enough. Despite 38- and 34-point efforts against the Ravens, he was swept by them in losses by a combined four points.

Seventy-two points in two games is a great figure, but it’s not really a surprising one, considering the matchup. The Ravens are 30th in adjusted defensive EPA, as they’ve been getting torched by everyone all year, dating back to Xavier Worthy in Week 1 and Gardner Minshew in Week 2. The Chargers, conversely, have a great stop unit ranked second in defensive EPA. They have two great edge rushers who will make life difficult for Burrow, especially if left tackle Orlando Brown is out again.

The Bengals might be able to get something going on the ground. The Chargers aren’t poor against the rush, but they aren’t great against it either. Chase Brown runs like he’s shot out of a cannon, and he’s getting all of the workload in the wake of Zack Moss’ injury. He’s also getting receiving work. Brown could set up some short-yardage situations for Burrow to connect with Ja’Marr Chase. The dynamic wideout projects well, as the Chargers have given up big games to No. 1 receivers in each of the past three weeks.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Bengals will probably have success offensively, and we know the Chargers will as well. This is an easy matchup for everyone involved, after all.

The Bengals are one of the worst teams when it comes to stopping the run. This is not ideal in this matchup because all John Harbaugh wants to do is run the ball. J.K. Dobbins continues to be excellent, and he should thrive against a Cincinnati defense that continues to miss D.J. Reader.

Cincinnati is even worse against the pass. The secondary is a complete disaster. It would have been ideal for the Bengals to battle the Chargers several weeks ago when Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey were both dealing with injuries, but they’re both healthy now. The best thing the Bengals do on this side of the ball is rush the passer on the edge, so that’s how they’ll aim to disrupt Justin Herbert. However, Herbert is protected well, so I’m not anticipating Herbert to be rattled at all.

RECAP: Here’s another game where a great quarterback is an underdog. Like Mahomes, Burrow is getting some number of points fewer than three.

Unlike Mahomes, however, Burrow is coming off a loss. I’m a fan of betting great quarterbacks following a defeat unless they are huge favorites. Burrow is going to be at his best, especially given that he can’t afford to fall to 4-7. I know the old saying that if a team needs to win, it’s not good enough to begin with, but the point is that Burrow is going to be dialed into this matchup.

While I plan to bet on Cincinnati, this won’t be a top play for me. I like Chargers too much. We’ve been on the Chargers quite often of late because they’ve been a severely underrated team that has dominated its competition. The Chargers have the better overall talent and coaching, and I would argue that this spread should be higher than it is, even when considering Cincinnati’s extra rest. We’re not getting the appropriate value with Cincinnati that we should be receiving.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -1.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

The Bengals are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 82% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Joe Burrow is 40-21 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (4-6 ATS otherwise).

Joe Burrow is 18-7 ATS after a loss.

Chargers are 23-30 ATS in San Angeles.

Opening Line: Chargers -1.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Dallas, the worst place in the world. Tonight, the stupid and dumb Cowboys take on the Houston Texas. Guys, I hate the Cowboys more than anything. I usually spend my allowance money on Nick Foles bobbleheads, but because I knew I was broadcasting this game tonight, I spent my allowance on Dak Prescott bobbleheads and then gave the rest of the money to a voodoo lady who would curse the bobbleheads, and then I would get my revenge for the Cowboys beating my Philadelphia Eagles last year, which, let’s face it, only occurred because of cheating! And now Dak is hurt, hahahaha!

Emmitt: Thanks, Tellah. I think you making a big missed steak by laughing at other people missed fortune. It really not funny when people get hurt on the football field because they train so hard running up hill to play football and then the injuryness make it so they cannot even play. And if you laugh at other people missed fortuneism, then he gonna get you. And by he, I mean Karmen. Karmen is a thing that mean if you bad to somebody, then the badness also gonna happen to you as well. I try to avoid Karem as best as possibles.

Reilly: Emmitt, I don’t believe in Karmen. If I didn’t learn it in Mother’s homeschooling class, then it’s not real. You’re just making stuff up because you’re a sleeper agent sent from the Cowboys to ruin my Philadelphia Eagles from going to the Super Bowl, aren’t you?

Tollefson: Reilly, Emmitt is right. Karmen is real. Ah, Karmen, the love of my life. We met about a decade ago. She would do great things around the house, and she was my best naked cook and naked cleaner. But one day, she tried to escape, and when I asked why, she said I was keeping her captive as a female slave. The nerve! So, I had to end our relationship, and I’m heartbroken. I still visit her grave in the woods sometimes.

Reilly: Tolly, I’d go with you to support your lost love, but Mother says the woods are too scary for me. Plus, she doesn’t let me talk to women, so visiting a woman’s grave might be taboo. Speaking of taboo, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. I have some breaking news. Dak Prescott is injured, and I’m the first to report it because I’m a great journalist. We’re joined tonight by a man who is so orange that his skin is burning my face. Sir, who are you, and what do you want?

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, my skin color is not orange, it’s tangerine, that’s the hue I chose at the tanning salon, and it’s the best hue of orange anyone has ever seen, or that’s what I’ve been told, and everyone should try to make their skin tangerine, but they can’t because it’s difficult to make your skin tangerine, only a certain number of people could do it, and by certain number, I mean one, because I’m the only one who could do it, and especially not Kamala, who is a total loser and a total disgrace, and frankly, she couldn’t pull off tangerine even if she wanted to because she is the worst candidate anyone has ever seen, and that’s why she had no chance of winning, with the other being that I was the best candidate anyone has ever seen, and no one has ever seen anything like it.

Charissa Thompson: Wait, but who are you exactly, and why do you want international games?

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, everyone knows my name, and if you don’t know my name, it’s because you’re a total fraud and a total loser, much like Kamala, my weak political opponent, and she was so weak that she wasn’t even an opponent, she was pathetic, frankly, the worst candidate to ever run for office, and I was the best, and now I’m here to keep all football games in America, because America is the best country, and all other countries are the worst countries, including Puerto Rico, which is garbage, but garbage is great, and I was a garbage truck driver for one day, they hired me because they thought I’d be great at the job, and I was the best at the job, no one had ever seen anything like it, and I picked up billions and billions of garbage on the street, billions and billions of garbage, and I did it in no time at all, no one had ever seen anything like it, and I was so good they said, “Trump, you can’t pick up garbage anymore because there won’t be anymore left, you can’t do it anymore,” so I won’t be picking up garbage anymore because I was the best at it, and everyone agrees.

Reilly: Wait a second, how is Trump down there with Charissa and also up here at the same time? Are there two Trumps!? Is this how he made up the 15 million votes!? Camel Toe Harris, did you really win?

Kamala Harris: First of all, let’s be clear here. I come from a middle-class family. And in my middle-class family, I wasn’t privileged enough to have two of me. And by two, I mean the number two, which is greater than one. And being from a middle-class family, I know how to accept defeat. That’s right, I accept defeat, but I will not be defeated. I will rise to the top, even if it means bending the knee again, and I will be the best candidate, and I will be unburdened by what has been, and we will be at the top again, even if I’m not on top now because I like being on top, which is not the middle, or the bottom, but the top, which is the highest because it’s the top.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, you are not on the top, you’ll never be on top because you’re on the bottom, in fact, you are at the very bottom, frankly, and you’re even beneath the bottom because you’re a total loser and a total fraud, unlike Trump, who is on top, and not just the top, but the very top, even topper than Top Man, who was the toughest boss in Mega Man until Trump came along, Trump Man, he was the toughest boss in any Mega Man game, because he was the best, and everyone was the worst, and it was impossible to kill him, it would take billions and billions of shots from any weapon, even the Metal Blade, billions and billions of shots, and it wouldn’t be enough, billions and billions of E Tanks used, no one has ever seen anything like it, and Kamala is the opposite, she is Bottom Woman and Trump is Top Man, and that’s exactly where Kamala belongs, she belongs on the bottom, and she is on the bottom, because I put her there.

Wolfley: DONALD, IN THE MEGA MAN 3 EDITION THAT CAME TO MY HOME PLANET, TOP MAN WAS AN IMPOSSIBLE BOSS NO ONE COULD BEAT UNTIL MY FRIEND, A FOUR-EYED TIGER WITH TENNIS BALLS FOR EYES, BEAT IT, AND THEN TWO PEOPLE FROM THE FUTURE, BOTH OF WHOM HAD MEGAPHONES FOR STOMACHS, CAME TO HIM AND SAID HE WAS THE ONLY PERSON WHO BEAT THE GAME, SO THEY BROUGHT HIM ALONG TO BEAT THE BAD GUYS IN THE PAST.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! I don’t know why I have to broadcast this game, anyway. Why do I have to be here in crappy Dallas, especially with you idiots? I should be with my Philadelphia Eagles right now. New Daddy, I’m the head honcho here, so can you make sure the network heads have us broadcast nothing but games with my Philadelphia Eagles?

Jay Cutler: Nachos sound OK, but no sour cream because it reminds me of splooge.

Reilly: I said honcho; not nacho! And what is splooge anyway? New Daddy, I thought you’d be upset that you have to be in Texas as well, especially Dallas.

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about cities in Texas, Kevin. You gave us a freebie, Kevin, which is Dallas, Kevin, because we’re here with you, Kevin, even though we don’t want to be, Kevin. What do you think about Houston, Kevin? You can’t forget about San Antonio, Kevin. Home of the Spurs, Kevin. Let’s segue to Austin, Kevin, which is where a lot of idiots live, Kevin. We can now move on to Arlington, Kevin. What about Fort Worth, Kevin? How about El Paso, Kevin? Why not touch on Lubbock, Kevin? Maybe it’s because there’s a university, Kevin, and you are completely uneducated, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, WE SHOULD LEAVE YOU HERE IN THIS HELL HOLE BECAUSE YOU SUCK AND YOU BELONG IN TEXAS WITH THE STUPID COWBOYS AND EVERYTHING ELSE THAT SUCKS! We’ll be back after this!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans have dropped consecutive games, and it’s not difficult to understand why. Ever since they lost Stefon Diggs, they’ve been so limited offensively. C.J. Stroud’s only viable offensive threat has been Tank Dell, who isn’t 100 percent because of a recent injury and a gun shot in the offseason.

Fortunately for Stroud, Collins figures to return this week. Collins had a good chance to play against the Lions, but the Texans decided to hold him out for one more week, which was for the best. The Detroit game didn’t matter much, but now that the Texans have lost two in a row, they’re likely going to push it with Collins’ return.

Stroud will have great opportunities to connect with Collins. The Texans run at the highest clip on early downs, and they’ll have success ripping through Dallas’ soft ground defense with Joe Mixon to set up favorable down-and-distance situations.

DALLAS OFFENSE: While the Texans figure to fix their offensive woes in the wake of Collins’ anticipated return, the Cowboys won’t have nearly as much luck. Dak Prescott is done for the year, so Dallas will have to continue on with either Cooper Rush or Trey Lance with poor protection, an injured top receiver, and no running game.

The Texans have an excellent defense that will dismantle Dallas’ offense. They’re terrific at generating pressure on the quarterback, which they’ll be able to do. They got after Jared Goff rather well on Sunday night, and Goff is much better protected than the Cowboy quarterbacks.

Houston is at its weakest versus the run, but Dallas doesn’t have the personnel to capitalize on that liability. Rico Dowdle is OK, but the blocking sucks, and Ezekiel Elliott is getting way too much work for some unknown reason.

RECAP: I’ve mentioned this many times this year, including earlier this week: I love fading backup quarterbacks battling top-12 defenses. Oddsmakers don’t make appropriate adjustments for this situation because the public believes that bad quarterbacks will perform the same no matter their opponent. I can’t tell you how many times I heard that Rush would thrive last week despite battling Philadelphia’s top-three defense because he beat some teams with bad defenses in 2022.

Whether it’s Rush or Lance, Dallas’ quarterback doesn’t stand a chance. The Texans have had their struggles this year, but those have come on offense. They’re 10th in adjusted EPA defense. DeMeco Ryans will have a great game plan prepared for Rush or Lance.

I love the Texans in this spot. In addition to having a severe matchup edge, they’ll also be motivated to bounce back from consecutive defeats, both of which occurred on national TV. Their offensive woes should also be resolved in the wake of Collins’ return.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Cowboys.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -5.5.

Computer Model: Texans -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 55% (7,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Texans are 56-44 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (8-11 ATS as favorites).

Cowboys are 24-15 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.

Opening Line: Texans -7.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.