NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2024 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
2024 NFL Picks: 6-6 (-$375)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

Football is back! I couldn’t be more excited, especially when having the chance to redeem myself for the poor 2023 season that we had. Last year was mired with insane bad beats – like Mac Jones taking a safety on the final play of the game – but I did an audit of my picks during the summer and found that I was making stupid decisions at times as well. I’ve taken measures to potentially correct these dumb mistakes, so hopefully they are minimized this year.

Also, if you haven’t visited the site in a while, you may have noticed the new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

At any rate, I’m looking forward to this season. I’ve done a lot of research this summer to refine my handicapping. We’re coming off a great year, and I think this season could be even better!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes is coming off his worst statistical season as a starter, but there’s reason to believe that he’ll revert to his pre-2023 form. This is because the Chiefs finally upgraded his receiving corps after losing Tyreek Hill ahead of the 2022 season. Marquise Brown won’t be available due to injury, but Xavier Worthy will be. He projects to be the potent downfield threat Kansas City has been missing since Hill departed. Rashee Rice, meanwhile, hasn’t been suspended yet, so he’ll improve with experience and serve as a reliable target over the middle of the field.

This is not good news for the Ravens, who don’t have the best cornerback play. They were able to make up for that last year with a strong pass rush, particularly in the interior with Justin Madubuike, but Kansas City has a stellar interior blocking unit that can keep Mahomes clean.

The Ravens will at least be able to clamp down on the run. They were third in that regard last year, so Isiah Pacheco won’t do much damage on the ground.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I mentioned that the Chiefs have a fantastic interior offensive line, but the same can’t be said of Baltimore’s blocking group. The Ravens lost three starting offensive linemen from a year ago. This could be very difficult for them to overcome unless their replacements do a stellar job immediately.

The Chiefs, for this reason, have a great matchup. They have a superb pass rush with Chris Jones, George Karlaftis and others, so they’ll be able to hound Lamar Jackson and force him into mistakes. Jackson didn’t even play well versus Kansas City the last time he saw them, and now he’ll be tasked with avenging that loss with diminished blocking.

The way to attack Kansas City’s defense is to pound the ball right into them, which was the thought process behind the Derrick Henry signing. However, Henry is not nearly the same, dominant back he once was. It also remains to be seen if he’ll have much running room behind a makeshift offensive line.

RECAP: I love betting Mahomes when he’s motivated. I recall one game he had against the Jets a few years ago when the Jets were truly awful. During a mid-week press conference, Mahomes told reporters that he was truly shocked that New York didn’t draft him. He was visibly upset about it, and when I saw that, I thought, “Oh man, Mahomes is going to nuke this team.” And that’s what he did. He threw for five touchdowns against the Jets and didn’t even play the full game because it was a massacre.

Mahomes will be similarly amped up for this game. Despite being a three-time Super Bowl MVP, Mahomes was not voted as the best quarterback in the NFL on the NFL top 100 list this summer. As it so happens, he’ll be going against the quarterback in front of him.

Mahomes is going to light up the Ravens with his enhanced receiving corps. Meanwhile, the defensive line should do its job against a Baltimore front missing three starters.

This looks like an outstanding matchup for the Chiefs, and I’m excited to bet on them, especially knowing that the public is coming in heavily on the underdog.

Our Week 1 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m still planning on betting four units on the Chiefs, but I’m hoping a viable -2.5 line becomes available. The best spread I see now is -3 +100 at Bet365.

PLAYER PROPS: Rashee Rice over 5.5 receptions is my favorite prop for this game. In Rice’s final 10 games last year, when the Chiefs fully recognized how good he was, he logged six-plus catches in eight games. Baltimore’s secondary isn’t very good, so Rice should have a great game. The best number is over 5.5 -138 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going to add Lamar Jackson 50+ rushing yards, Derrick Henry under 65.5 rushing yards, and Isaiah Likely over 15.5 receiving yards to the Rice prop. Baltimore’s offensive line is weak, so Jackson will have to run more, which he tends to do in big games anyway. This will also negatively impact Henry, who is washed up. Meanwhile, John Harbaugh said that Likely will be more involved offensively this year. This $25 parlay pays $221.49. I made it on FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

LOCKED IN: I was waiting for a viable Chiefs -2.5 line all week, and we finally found one. You can get Kansas City -2.5 -109 at Bookmaker. I’m locking it in for four units. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a bit of sharp money on the Chiefs, but not a substantial amount. I still love the Chiefs in this spot, as they have the motivation and matchups in their favor. The best line is -2.5 -110 at Bovada, followed by -2.5 -113 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes will be motivated after being voted behind Lamar Jackson.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Chiefs -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

The Ravens are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 71% (168,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

John Harbaugh is 12-4 ATS in Week 1 games.

Lamar Jackson is 11-1 ATS as an underdog.

Chiefs are 21-12 ATS in season openers at home since 1971.

Andy Reid is 7-4 ATS in Week 1 games with the Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 84-24 SU, 59-48 ATS (47-35 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 84 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles already had an explosive offense last year. It’s scary to imagine how potent they’ll be with an actual backfield threat on the team in Saquon Barkley.

Barkley presents a huge problem for the Packers. Green Bay is habitually poor against the run, ranking 24th in that regard last year. D’Andre Swift wouldn’t have threatened Green Bay as much if this matchup transpired a year ago, but Barkley is a completely different animal. He’ll be running behind a great offensive line for the first time in his career, so I would expect a huge game from him.

The Packers can’t exactly focus on clamping down on Barkley because they have to worry about all of Philadelphia’s dynamic receiving threats. In years past, they could have limited A.J. Brown with Jaire Alexander, but Alexander’s career is on a sharp, downward trajectory because of all the injuries he’s suffered over the years. Brown and DeVonta Smith will feast on Green Bay’s weak secondary.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Speaking of weak secondaries, the Eagles couldn’t stop any passing attack last season. They made Sam Howell look like the second coming of Joe Montana in two meetings. It was a complete disaster that caused Philadelphia to unravel after a 10-1 start.

The Eagles have taken measures to improve their secondary, signing Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and drafting two defensive backs in the first couple of rounds. Devin White being added to the linebacking corps was a nice addition as well. It remains to be seen, however, how these rookie defenders will play, especially against “No Cookie” Jordan Love and his improving receiving corps.

One area in which Philadelphia should excel is limiting Josh Jacobs. The former Raider is one of my favorites to win the rushing title this year – see my NFL Futures Bets page for more – but this is an extremely difficult matchup, as Philadelphia’s young defensive tackles clamped down on the run in 2023.

RECAP: This line seems to be priced close to what the spread should be. Both of these teams are in the upper echelon of the NFC. I like the Eagles better than the Packers, but there’s not a huge difference between the two. However, Philadelphia seems to match up well versus Green Bay, particularly with Barkley now on the team.

If you’re looking for another angle here, it might be to fade Matt LaFleur in an international game. The last time LaFleur played outside the United States, he missed his own meeting and then lashed out about not being able to adjust his body clock. Granted, Brazil is in an Atlantic time zone, so there’s only a 2-hour difference from LaFleur’s central time, but traveling so far could impact him in ways most may not realize.

I’m going to side with the Eagles for this reason. I’m not sure if I’ll end up betting this game, but if I do, it’ll be for a small wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a major dichotomy pertaining to public money and sharp money in this game. The public is pounding the Packers, while the sharps love the Eagles. It’s not ideal for Philadelphia that Devin White has been ruled out, but I’m still siding with the “home team.”

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Jayden Reed over 3.5 receptions. In his final 10 games last year, Reed caught four or more balls nine times. The only exception was the opening-round playoff game against Dallas when the Packers got out to a huge lead and didn’t need to throw at all in the second half. The best number is over 3.5 -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m placing Reed over 3.5 receptions with A.J. Brown over 70.5 receiving yards, Christian Watson over 41.5 receiving yards, and Josh Jacobs under 62.5 rushing yards. Brown has a great schematic matchup, and Jaire Alexander is no longer a threat to receivers. Watson is healthy and should have his way with Philadelphia’s secondary. And I expect the Eagles to win, so the Packers may not be able to run very much. Also, Philadelphia was stout versus the run last year until late in the season when the young defensive tackles wore down. This $25 parlay pays $220.25. I made it on FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like the Eagles, especially with the news that the Packers were a 2-hour drive from the stadium. That’s not a huge deal, but every little bit helps. At any rate, the sharps were on the Eagles earlier in the week, but some late, pro money came in on Green Bay, knocking this line down to -1.5 at some locations. The best line is -1.5 -105 at Caesars.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Eagles -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

The Packers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 68% (62,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 49-34 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Eagles -1.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 63 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Steelers +3

Packers +2.5

Ravens +3

All underdogs!? What’s happening here?

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins would often get out to big leads versus the opposition last year and then sit on the ball in the second half with their potent ground attack. That won’t exactly be the formula this season.

There are two reasons for this, one of which I’ll discuss in the next section. The other is that the Dolphins lost their two best run-blocking offensive linemen, as Connor Williams and Robert Hunt departed for the Seahawks and Panthers, respectively. Even if the Dolphins get out to a big lead, they will have to throw more than they did last year.

That, however, won’t be much of a problem versus the Jaguars. Jacksonville had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL last year. While it should improve, it won’t be able to handle Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The other reason why the Dolphins won’t be able to get out to big leads and sit on the ball is because their defense will be much worse this year, at least until they get their talented edge rushers, Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, back from injury. And even still, the Dolphins lost other personnel on this side of the ball during the offseason.

This bodes well for the Jaguars, obviously. Trevor Lawrence doesn’t have the best offensive line, but Miami’s diminished pass rush means that the former No. 1 overall pick will be adequately protected. He’ll have enough time in the pocket to locate his numerous threats.

It remains to be seen how well the Dolphins will play against the run. Miami was ninth against ground attacks last year, but I imagine that ranking will be worse this year because of all the departed free agents.

RECAP: The first thing I did when handicapping this game was glance at the weather. It’s going to be 88 and sunny with 72-percent humidity in Miami this Sunday. This is extremely important because the Dolphins have such a huge advantage playing in the Miami heat. I know the Jaguars are accustom to Florida weather, but the Dolphins have designed their stadium so that their bench is in the shade, while the opposing bench is in the sun. This is why the opposition tends to wither away in second halves during Miami games early in the year.

I’m inclined to side with the Dolphins for this reason. If this game were being played in a fair environment, I would consider the Jaguars. They’re an underrated team with Lawrence back at full strength, while Miami will be missing several key defenders from a year ago. It would be nice to get more than a field goal with them. Plus, the Dolphins have to play against the Bills just four days after this game.

However, given Miami’s built-in advantage, I’m going to side with them. I will be monitoring the weather to see if something changes because if conditions are cooler than expected, then I may consider jumping ship to the Jaguars.

A couple of other things: First, I’m going to place a small bet on the over because there will be no defense played in this game. Second, I may live bet the Dolphins if we get a good number because of the sun/heat issue for Jacksonville.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Whatever -3s were out there are now gone, with -3.5 lines across the board. I’m seeing a tiny bit of sharp money on Miami, but nothing substantial.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was wrong about Miami’s injury situation. Jaelan Phillips will play, so I have interest in the Dolphins at -3. I plan on making a small bet on them.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Tua Tagovailoa over 267.5 passing yards. When his receivers were healthy, and the weather was warm, Tagovailoa routinely went way over 267.5 passing yards. Jacksonville was poor versus the pass last year, and this could be a potential shootout, so Tagovailoa should have a great game. The best number is over 267.5 -113 at BetMGM. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was some pre-game drama with Tyreek Hill being detained for speeding. Hill will play, so this isn’t a concern for me. If you want to bet the Dolphins, the best line is -3.5 -102 at FanDuel. There’s no sharp action on either side.

The Motivation. Edge: Jaguars.

The Dolphins play against the Bills on Thursday, but this seems like a matchup in which they may focus.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Dolphins -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 52% (143,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Jaguars are 61-106 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Dolphins -3.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 88 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last year:

Imagine liking soccer. That’s like saying, “I like watching paint dry.” What a sad existence.

Still waiting for a reply from CM about this.

I still can’t believe this guy believes that I make a living solely on placing bets. How stupid can you be?

Ah, our old friend John Capricotti. Hopefully he returns this season with more gems like this:

You heard it from John Capricotti. No need to shop around for the best line. Just take the worst number!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I don’t understand why the Steelers signed Russell Wilson. I imagine the front office simply didn’t watch Wilson in Denver. Perhaps there were ‘member berries involved from Wilson’s Seattle days. I don’t get it. Wilson was so atrocious with the Broncos that he was benched in favor of Jarrett Stidham.

Things will be even worse for Wilson in Pittsburgh because of the offensive line play. The Steelers have added some young blockers recently, but it’s hard to imagine that they’ll be great to start the season. The blocking wouldn’t have been a huge issue a few weeks ago because the Falcons looked to have a weak pass rush as a result of drafting Michael Penix Jr. over Laiatu Latu. However, Atlanta made amends by trading for Matthew Judon. He and Justin Simmons could transform Atlanta’s defense into a top-10 unit.

At the very least, the Falcons will be able to feast on dysfunctional offenses like Pittsburgh’s. The Steelers have just one potent downfield threat in George Pickens, so A.J. Terrell can take care of him. Where else will Wilson turn? This doesn’t seem like a very good situation.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I had questions about Kirk Cousins, particularly in the wake of the Penix pick. I thought it was possible that Cousins simply wasn’t 100 percent coming off a torn Achilles. He’s 36, after all, so it’s more difficult for older players like him to recover from such injuries.

Cousins, at the very least, will be well protected. Atlanta has a solid offensive line that will be able to keep Pittsburgh’s pass rush at bay enough for Cousins to have some success. Sure, T.J. Watt will make some big plays, but it’s not like he and the other front-seven players have great matchups.

Speaking of matchups, Drake London has the best one against a shaky Steeler secondary. The Steelers were at least able to sign Patrick Queen to limit Kyle Pitts, but stopping London will be a problem.

RECAP: Something I like to do in Week 1 is fade the overhyped teams heading into the season. I believed there were two of these squads, with the Falcons being one of them. I was wary of Atlanta’s ability to meet expectations because of a sketchy defense that lost Calais Campbell. Passing on Latu seemed like a huge mistake.

However, the Falcons made a couple of moves to justify their hype. Acquiring Judon and Simmons was huge, as the duo gives Atlanta a viable stop unit. Thus, the Falcons no longer qualify as one of these overhyped fades.

In fact, I’ll be picking Atlanta. I know that fading Mike Tomlin as an underdog is risky business, but as long as the line isn’t above -3, I’m fine with it. Besides, going against Wilson and a bad offensive line seems awfully tempting.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Our new picks podcast co-host Eytan Shander made a great point about why the Steelers might be the right side in this game on our Week 1 NFL Picks video. I really don’t want anything to do with Russell Wilson, but then again, there’s something to be said about Arthur Smith having knowledge about his former team.

SATURDAY NOTES: Russell Wilson probably won’t play in this game, so that’s one concern I won’t have for the Steelers. Despite the positive news, the Steelers are now +3.5, making them appealing. I thought about changing my pick, but I’ll remain with Atlanta.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Justin Fields will start, which is bullish for the Steelers. Had an injured Russell Wilson got the nod, I would have bet the Falcons, but there’s no great wagering opportunity now in my opinion, though the sharps have been pounding Atlanta. The best line is -4 -105 at FanDuel.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Falcons -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

The Steelers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 88% (135,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is 58-34 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The poor Viking fans were so excited to showcase J.J. McCarthy this year. There’s no guarantee that he would have been called on to start this game, but he was impressive at times during the preseason. McCarthy, unfortunately, is out for the year, so Minnesota fans will have to wait 12 months to see him in real action.

Sam “Don’t call me Bradford” Darnold will start, which is far from ideal. Luckily for Darnold, he’ll have two talented receivers at his disposal against a New York defense that possesses some terrible cornerback play. Perhaps Adoree Jackson will help, but he looked decrepit last season. It’s hard to imagine him slowing down Justin Jefferson anyway.

It’s a shame that the Giants have such a poor secondary because the rest of their defense looks stout, particularly their front. They’ll have Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux rushing the passer from the edge with Dexter Lawrence disrupting in the middle. Darnold normally would have a solid offensive line in front of him, but guard Dalton Risner is sidelined, so a shaky interior could have some major problems against Lawrence, both in pass protection and run blocking.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Daniel Jones is one of many quarterbacks coming off a serious injury. He’s recovering from a torn ACL, so he may not be as mobile as usual. This will be a problem against teams with terrific pass rushes.

I wouldn’t qualify the Vikings as such, at least not yet. They lost some major edge talent this offseason. They spent a first-round pick on Dallas Turner, but it remains to be seen how he’ll produce in his first game. This is great news for Jones, who is still burdened with a poor blocking group.

Jones will at least have a dynamic receiver at his disposal for the first time in his career. Malik Nabers is a great talent and should be able to get open rather easily against Minnesota’s poor secondary.

RECAP: The opposite of fading the overhyped team heading into Week 1 is to buy low on the squad that is being trashed during the start of the year. That team would be the Giants, who have been the butt of almost every NFL joke ever since Jones had a horrific showing in the preseason.

It’s easy to forget that the Giants were a playoff team in 2022. I’m not saying they’ll reach the postseason again, but the Giants have some things going for them, namely some stellar talents in their front seven who could give Darnold some issues.

Speaking of Darnold, he’s quarterbacking a team that’s not very good, yet is favored on the road and is being bet on by the public. I don’t understand how it’s warranted for Darnold to be a publicly backed road favorite over anyone, even the stinky Giants.

I’ll be going the contrarian route and backing New York. This won’t be a big play, but I think the Giants are worth some sort of a wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is still a small bet on the Giants. I was hoping to see some sharp money come in on New York, but the pros haven’t weighed in on this game yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: I may go to two units on the Giants. There’s really no reason the Vikings should be favored on the road. Also, the Giants don’t have a single player on the injury report.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a ton of public money coming in on the Vikings, though the sharps haven’t backed the Giants. If you want to bet the Giants, the best line is +1 -108 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Giants -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Vikings -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Lots of action on the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 70% (137,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Sunny, 68 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: I laugh whenever I see the Panthers near the bottom of anyone’s power rankings. “Way to not pay attention to anything that happened this offseason,” I think to myself. Carolina won’t necessarily be a playoff team this year, but it’ll be competitive and could push for a record close to .500.

The Panthers have done a lot to improve this side of the ball. They bolstered their offensive line with Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, addressing a poor interior that couldn’t keep Bryce Young clean at all. Hunt and Lewis will help open up running lanes for Chuba Hubbard, who otherwise wouldn’t have had a chance against last year’s eighth-ranked ground defense.

The front office also acquired some talented receivers who could separate for Young. And speaking of Young, he’ll be coached up well by quarterback guru Dave Canales, who revived the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield the past two years. He can certainly do the same for Young, placing the young quarterback in favorable situations in this game.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: While the Panthers will have a much better offensive line, the Saints’ blocking will be far worse. Losing Ryan Ramczyk was a huge blow because he was easily the best blocker on the roster. The Saints used a first-round pick on Tallies Fuaga, but it remains to be seen how he’ll fare in his first game.

The Saints will struggle to block most teams this year, including the Panthers. Alvin Kamara won’t find any running room, while Derek Carr will have to settle for lots of checkdowns. Kamara will at least be somewhat productive as a receiver out of the backfield, but Carolina has a talented linebacking corps to limit him.

On the rare occasions in which Carr can target players downfield, he’ll obviously look to Chris Olave, who is his only consistent receiver. Olave, however, will have a difficult matchup against Jaycee Horn.

RECAP: This line makes no sense to me. I have the Panthers as a better team than the Saints in my NFL Power Rankings, so why are they such big underdogs? This spread should be closer to New Orleans -1, so we’re getting insane value.

It seems as though the public just doesn’t understand how to evaluate these teams just yet. They still believe the Panthers are terrible, yet Carolina has made a number of big upgrades this offseason. New Orleans, meanwhile, is in shambles with his horrific offensive line. Any team as bad as the Saints almost has to be automatically faded when it’s favored by more than a field goal.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Something I didn’t note yet is that Dennis Allen is the worst coach in the NFL against the spread. He’s especially brutal as a favorite (7-15-1), which matches up with Derek Carr’s 9-19 ATS record as a favorite of 3.5 or more.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing has changed for me concerning this game. The Panthers continue to look great at +4.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Alvin Kamara under 54.5 rushing yards. In his final eight games last year, Kamara eclipsed that sum three times, and yet, that was with a better offensive line in front of him. New Orleans now has the worst blocking unit in the NFL. The Panthers, meanwhile, signed Josey Jewell, so they should be better versus the rush. The best number is over 267.5 -113 at BetMGM. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Unfortunately, all the +4s are gone. The sharps have dragged this line down to +3.5. The best line is +3.5 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Saints -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Sharp money on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 67% (132,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Derek Carr is 9-19 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+.

Opening Line: Saints -4.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I discussed how bad New Orleans’ offensive line could be in the previous picks capsule. As atrocious as the Saints’ blocking could be, New England’s might actually be worse. The Patriots’ offensive line is in complete shambles. It couldn’t block the Redskins’ second-string unit during the final preseason game, with the group even committing eight penalties in the first half alone. It was so bad that the official announced, “Illegal formation, once again, on the offense.”

If the Patriots still had Bill Belichick as their head coach, I’d have some faith that they could fix their issues. Jerod Mayo, however, is a brand new coach, and a defensive one at that. New England likely won’t be able to block at all in the early stages of the season – or perhaps even the entire year – which will be a huge problem against Cincinnati’s talented pass rush.

Even worse, the Patriots’ receiving corps is not good enough to compensate for this woeful blocking. The Bengals don’t have a very good secondary, but New England doesn’t have the personnel to take advantage of this liability.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: There are question marks about Cincinnati’s receiving corps as well. The primary question is radically different than New England’s, however, as it pertains to the availability to Ja’Marr Chase, who remains unsigned.

This game, however, doesn’t appear to be one in which Chase will be completely necessary. The Patriots had a great defense last year, but that was with Belichick coaching up the unit. Now, Belichick is gone, and so is Matthew Judon. Top interior lineman, Christian Barmore, is out as well. Joe Burrow, who often deals with pass-rushing issues, won’t feel much pressure from New England’s diminished pass rush. Burrow is great enough to navigate through this matchup without Chase.

RECAP: Early in the offseason, I believed I was going to side with the Patriots. The Bengals habitually have gotten off to slow starts in the Burrow era, losing to the Steelers as seven-point favorites a couple of years ago. They were also destroyed last year at Cleveland, though Burrow could barely moved because of an injured calf.

I wonder if the Bengals have taken notice of this and will attempt to get off to a quicker start. That’s not the whole reason why I’ve decided to switch to Cincinnati, but that’s part of it.

There are two factors for why the Bengals appear to be the right side. First, is the rookie coach-rookie quarterback combo, which has a poor track record in Week 1. Brissett isn’t technically a rookie, but it’s his first start in New England for quite a long time. He’s not used to his teammates yet, so there’s bound to be some growing pains in the first week. All it takes is for one miscommunication, and Cincinnati will be taking an interception back to the house. And Mayo isn’t experienced enough to guide Brissett through these issues.

The second factor is that the Patriots have a woeful offensive line that won’t be capable of blocking anyone. The Bengals have a stellar pass rush, so they’ll be able to hound Brissett and disrupt anything New England attempts offensively.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ja’Marr Chase practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday. If there’s news that he’ll play, this spread could balloon to -10, so I may lock this pick in soon.

SATURDAY NOTES: We had some bad news for the Bengals, with Tee Higgins listed as doubtful. I have no plan on betting them if Ja’Marr Chase is also out. Fortunately, Chase practiced fully on Friday, so we just need some faith that ownership will pay Chase what he’s deserved.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Chase is on the case! Sorry, I have a 2-year-old who is obsessed with Paw Patrol. Ja’Marr Chase is active, so my three-unit bet will stand. There’s no sharp action to speak of in this game. The best line is -7.5 -110 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Patriots.

The Bengals play against the Chiefs next, but they may want to avoid another slow start.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -12.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Bengals -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Growing action on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 70% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bengals -8.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Sunny, 68 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears had one of the best cap situations in the NFL this offseason, thanks in part to their ability to draft a rookie quarterback and pay him next-to-nothing compared to what veterans at the position make. I believed that Chicago was going to use this to its advantage by bolstering multiple areas of its roster, but it really signed just two players of note in D’Andre Swift and Keenan Allen. Rome Odunze was then drafted ninth overall to round out the receiving corps.

The Bears’ strength is their receivers, so that doesn’t bode well for them in this matchup. The Titans have also been busy this offseason, acquiring top talents at cornerback. In fact, they have two No. 1-caliber corners in L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie to help blanket the Chicago receivers as Caleb Williams becomes adjusted to real NFL game action. Williams will also have to deal with a swarming Tennessee pass rush.

The Titans made other key acquisitions on this side of the ball, obtaining Ernest Jones in a trade with the Rams, as well as T’Vondre Swift on Day 2 of the draft. Tennessee was already stout against the run, so these two players will be able to handle Swift.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: One area in which I really thought the Bears would hammer would be their defensive line. Sure, they traded for Montez Sweat at the 2023 trade deadline, but they don’t have much of a pass rush to go along with him.

The one weakness the Titans have is at quarterback, and that’s even an unknown because Will Levis has plenty of upside. Because the Bears don’t have much of a pass rush outside of Sweat, Levis could have a solid performance with his enhanced receiving corps that now features Calvin Ridley.

The Bears should at least be able to handle the run well. They were terrific against ground attacks last year, which will be key in this matchup because Tony Pollard looks like he has regained the explosion he was lacking in 2023 as a result of his broken foot.

RECAP: I mentioned earlier that I believed that the Falcons were one of two preseason hype teams heading into 2024 before I changed my opinion of them. The Bears are the other. Chicago is widely considered to be a playoff sleeper, yet Williams couldn’t even lead USC to a top-five finish in his conference. I know the Trojans didn’t have top-end talent last year, but can you say that the Bears do? I like Chicago a bit, but predicting them to make the playoffs just because Williams is now quarterbacking the team seems excessive.

Conversely, no one is taking the Titans seriously, but they should. Levis won’t scare anyone, but Tennessee’s defense looks to be the real deal. Asking Williams to navigate through such a talented stop unit in his first game is a bit too much.

With that in mind, this spread is way off. I have the Titans three spots ahead of the Bears in my NFL Power Rankings, so this line should be Chicago -1 at most. Yet, we’re getting more than a field goal with the Titans, which seems like a gift.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bears have some key players on the injury report as limited participants – Montez Sweat, Keenan Allen, Ryan Bates – but there’s no indication that they’re in danger of missing this game, unfortunately.

SATURDAY NOTES: There isn’t much on the injury report after all. I still love the Titans to cover and potentially win outright.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Tyjae Spears under 34.5 rushing yards. Spears eclipsed 34.5 rushing yards only four times last year, and he may have trouble doing this against a top-10 ground defense from a year ago. Also, Tony Pollard handled every snap on the opening drive of the final preseason game, while Spears was mixed in with the backups. The best number is over 267.5 -113 at BetMGM. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was sharp money on the Titans throughout the entire week, but other pro action has come in on the Bears -3.5 on Sunday morning, moving the line to -4. The best line is +4 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Bears -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Decent lean on the Titans.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 72% (140,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bears -4.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Sunny, 67 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: It’s the beginning of the NFL season, so I’m obligated to show you younger people what we currently miss with ESPN getting rid of NFL Primetime, which was the best football show on TV a long time ago:

This sequence was insane. A hurry-up offense while up 35-17 with four minutes remaining. A team going for two in a 45-13 game. An onside kick and a Hail Mary in a 45-13 game. Another Hail Mary in a 42-24 game. Crazy!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills had a disappointing offense in the first half of the 2023 season, but things changed when Joe Brady took over for an ineffective Ken Dorsey. Brady was able to fix the problems Dorsey created, but he’ll once again have his work cut out for him because of the diminished receiving corps.

There is a ton of missing air yards in Buffalo’s offense, with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis now in Houston and Jacksonville, respectively. Curtis Samuel was signed, but he’s banged up. Keon Coleman was a favorite of Josh Allen’s ahead of the draft, but it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be in his first game.

The Cardinals have one of the weaker secondaries in the NFL, and teams with outstanding receiving corps will have a field day throwing on them. The Bills are not one of those teams, however. Buffalo also can’t pound the ball with its running backs very well, so it’ll have to depend on Allen’s scrambles and throws to the tight ends to move the chains in this game.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Ask the casual fan which of these two teams has the superior offense, and most will say the Bills. However, the case can certainly be made for the Cardinals. Arizona’s offensive line looks to be superb, while a healthy Kyler Murray will have two dynamic targets at his disposal in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride.

The Bills, meanwhile, have some problems on this side of the ball as well. Matt Milano returning from injury was supposed to be a huge boon for their defense, but Milano got hurt again and will be out until at least December. Meanwhile, both starting safeties from a year ago are both gone. The middle of the field will be available for McBride and James Conner.

Buffalo still has some positive aspects to its stop unit, namely their pass rush. As discussed, however, the Cardinals have a talented offensive line, so Buffalo’s pass rush won’t be as potent as it normally would be against other opponents.

RECAP: I loved the Cardinals even before Milano’s injury. It feels as though there’s a major misconception for how these teams should be evaluated. Arizona is seen as a bad team, yet the Cardinals went into Houston, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia when Murray returned from injury last year, and nearly won the first contest before prevailing in the others. Now, a healthier Murray has Harrison Jr. at his disposal, so Arizona will be even more potent.

The Bills, meanwhile, will be ushering in a brand new receiving corps, so they’ll have to take some time to gel. The way to beat the Cardinals is to attack their poor secondary, yet Buffalo won’t be able to do that.

Before Milano got hurt, you could say that the Bills could thrive defensively in this matchup, but that’s not even the case anymore. Buffalo is so much worse without Milano, so the Cardinals should have an easy time moving the ball.

If all of this hasn’t convinced you to bet the Cardinals yet, I must remind you that the Bills play in just four days against the Dolphins. There’s no way they’ll be fully focused against a non-conference foe with a much more important game on the line.

This is my top play of the week. I love the Cardinals and will be betting at least five units on them. I’m considering this as my September NFL Pick of the Month, but will wait on the injury report for that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s a bit shocking to me that the line, which has fallen from +7 to +6, popped back up to +6.5. I’m happy to get a better number, but I thought the sharps would continue to drag down this spread. Perhaps it has to do with Curtis Samuel being a full participant in Wednesday’s practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no injuries of note, so the Cardinals will be my September NFL Pick of the Month. This reminds me of last year’s Vikings-Buccaneers game where Minnesota, a declining team favored by this amount of points, had an impending Thursday game against a tougher foe and completely looked past Tampa.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting James Conner 69.5 rushing and receiving yards. With Kyler Murray on the field last year, Conner eclipsed that total in six of his eight games. Buffalo will struggle to stop Conner without Matt Milano. The best number is over 69.5 -115 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was a +7 -110 at Bovada last night, but I didn’t lock in the pick there because Bovada is a shady sportsbook that doesn’t always pay out its customers. I was hoping for another book to have +7 -110, but I can’t find one right now. The best line is +6.5 -105 at DraftKings. The sharps had Arizona +7 long ago and Buffalo -6 more recently, but haven’t touched the game at +6.5. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Bills play against the Dolphins this upcoming Thursday.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Bills -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Decent action on the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 68% (142,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Opening Line: Bills -7.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 56 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: It’s going to be exciting to watch the Texans this year. C.J. Stroud is coming off the best rookie quarterback season ever, and yet he’ll effectively have two new receivers at his disposal. Stefon Diggs was signed, while Tank Dell will be returning from an injury that caused him to miss the final portion of the 2023 season, including the two playoff games.

Stroud will have three dynamic downfield threats as well as Dalton Schultz at his disposal in this game. The Colts have a solid defense, particularly when it comes to stopping the run and pressuring the quarterback, but they are weak at outside cornerback, so containing both Nico Collins and Diggs will be a huge problem.

The Colts, at the very least, will be able to restrict Joe Mixon. Grover Stewart is one of the top run-stuffing linemen in the NFL, as he and DeForest Buckner form an amazing defensive tackle tandem. If Stroud still had a limited supporting cast, I’d be concerned about his ability to consistently move the chains, but he’ll be able to light up Indianapolis’ secondary.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts offense will look radically different this year as well. At least for the time being, anyway. This is because Anthony Richardson is actually healthy at the moment. Richardson, however, got hurt in every single game in which he played last season, so it remains to be seen if he’ll have better injury luck.

As long as Richardson is healthy, it’s going to be difficult for the opposition to stop the Colts because of all the dynamic threats the team has. Richardson has an amazing arm and can torch opposing defensive backs, and he’ll be able to run circles around defenders while scrambling as well. Then, there’s Jonathan Taylor, who will once again rush behind one of the top offensive lines in the NFL.

Of all these areas, it seems as though the Texans will struggle to limit Richardson on the ground the most. Richardson zipped right through Houston’s defense in Week 2 last year en route to a great rushing performance despite missing more than half the game with an injury. If he plays the entire contest, he could have an insane rushing total.

RECAP: I have no feel for this game. These are two underrated teams that both have a chance to reach the Super Bowl if they can remain healthy. I like the Texans more, so this spread is appropriately priced.

I’m ultimately going to side with the Texans. You know how Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes had/have winning spread records, and if you would have blindly bet them, you’d profit over the long term? I think we may see something similar with Stroud, who might be widely recognized as the third-best quarterback in the NFL by the time the season is finished. Stroud was 10-6 against the spread last year after adjusting to the NFL in his first two games, so we may see a similar winning clip until the oddsmakers adjust and begin inflating his lines.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a good amount of sharp action coming in on the Texans, which has bumped this line up to -3 in some locations. I would have no interest in switching to Indianapolis at +3, but +3.5 would be a different story.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing has changed for me regarding this game. Still a slight lean on Houston.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Texans up to -3, but haven’t touched them at that number. If you want to bet Houston, the best line is -3 -103 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Texans -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 54% (145,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -2.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.