NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2023 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2023): 6-8-1 (-$2,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2023): 5-10-1 (-$1,295)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2023): 5-9 (-$935)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2023): 7-6 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2023): 5-9 ($0)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2023): 13-2-1 (+$1,960)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2023): 6-7 (-$115)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2023): 7-7-1 (+$740)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$120)
2023 NFL Picks: 112-113-9 (-$6,200)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 24, 11:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 16 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 16 Analysis: We had a great Saturday, hitting our five- and four-unit plays, as well as two of three player props. Sunday was terrible because the Bears blew a two-touchdown lead and other nonsense. I’ll once again break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Bengals, 4 units (win): It’s great that we got the +3.5 because Minnesota’s lead turned into a three-point Cincinnati win.

Lions, 5 units (win): It’s nice not to have to sweat out a big play.

Bears, 5 units (push): Ugh. The Bears were up 17-3. Joe Flacco went nuts in the fourth quarter to give Cleveland a 20-17 lead. The Bears still could have won, but Darnell Mooney dropped a Hail Mary pass that fell right into his lap! We’ve had so much bad luck this year, so it would have been nice to have something go our way for once. But that’s too much to ask for, apparently.

Jets, 5 units (loss): I’m prettty annoyed by this result. What the hell is the point of injury reports if the Dolphins can win 30-0 while missing countless starters? Seriously, why am I wasting so much time with these injury reports every week if it doesn’t matter?

Redskins, 4 units (loss): Speaking of not getting breaks, the Redskins were in a position to get a back-door push when they scored a touchdown late in the game. They lined up for the extra point – and it was blocked! Of course it was. We did not deserve to cover this game, I’ll admit that. However, it’s like I said – we just can’t get anything to go our way. This year has been so frustrating.

Bills, 4 units (win): Another big-unit play that was never in doubt.

Seahawks, 3 units (win): This was a frustrating game because the coaching staff didn’t trust Drew Lock to throw into Philadelphia’s horrible secondary, but Lock proved them wrong in the clutch.

I want to include a new segment here, where I list “obvious” picks in hindsight that I did not bet:

Ravens -4: I liked Baltimore’s matchup against the Jaguars, but didn’t bet the game because I thought it might be a flat spot. These motivational angles have been mostly terrible this year, so I should have trusted my analysis and put two units on the Ravens.

If you haven’t visited the site in a while, you may have noticed the new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it at the top. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: We’ve acknowledged the Dolphins as a frontrunning team this year, constantly blowing out weaker opponents with ease. Perhaps the Saints defense can be acknowledged as a frontrunning defense because the stop unit easily puts the clamps on weaker offenses, but really struggles against teams that can usually move the chains easily.

It seems like a major component of this is the Saints’ run defense. New Orleans just stonewalled Saquon Barkley and has done the same versus a handful of teams. Conversely, they’ve allowed huge games to some opponents. The Saints are willing to put extra men in the box versus teams with weaker passing attacks, but they’ve struggled to stop the likes of Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson.

It seems as though the Saints will have problems against Kyren Williams, who has been outstanding this season. New Orleans can also falter against slot receivers and tight ends, and the Rams can beat them with the former, as Cooper Kupp is currently fully healthy.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: There’s a major injury update we’re waiting on for this game. That would be regarding Chris Olave, who missed last week’s game. The Saints didn’t have issues beating the Giants without Olave, but this matchup is much different.

The Rams have two weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball. They are woerful to tight ends and have problems against outside receivers, as witnessed last week when Terry McLaurin torched them once Jacoby Brissett entered the game. The Rams won’t be threatened by Juwan Johnson very much, so they’ll need Olave to have offensive consistency.

The Saints, of course, will want to run the ball, whether it’s via Alvin Kamara or Taysom Hill. The Rams, however, have done well to stop opposing ground attacks.

RECAP: The Olave news is enormous. If he can’t go, the Saints are going to have major problems moving the chains with no one to really threaten the Rams’ improving defense. If Olave is available, this could be a back-and-forth affair because I anticipate the Rams being able to score consistently.

I’m going to pencil in the Rams for now, but if Olave is going to be healthy and unrestricted, I may take the underdog because in that case, the most likely result of this game would be the Rams winning by three points.

Our Week 16 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Chris Olave will play, though the Saints will still be without Ryan Ramczyk. The Olave news had me consider backing the Saints, but I’m going to stick with the Rams, albeit for zero units.

PLAYER PROPS: I’ve been talking about how important Chris Olave is for the Saints in this matchup because the Rams have allowed the most production to outside receivers. Olave’s best receiving yardage prop is over 60.5 -110 on FanDuel.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going to toss in the Olave prop with the following: Cooper Kupp over 73.5 receiving yards, Kyren Williams over 91.5 rushing yards, and Juwan Johnson over 19.5 receiving yards. The Saints are poor to slot receivers. New Orleans also allows top-10 production to running backs and should be playing from behind. The Rams, meanwhile, are horrible versus tight ends. The last time Johnson had a matchup like this, he went 4-45 against Atlanta. This parlay was done on FanDuel for +1087. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t have any interest in betting this game, and neither do the sharps. The public is all over the Rams. The best line is Rams -4 -108 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -4.

Computer Model: Rams -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

One-sided action.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 81% (462,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Rams -4.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The first matchup between these teams was recent, and yet it feels like eons ago. Jake Browning severely struggled in that game, so much so that the Bengals were made double-digit underdogs at Jacksonville the following week.

The rest is history, as Browning has been terrific since the Pittsburgh game. This is a difficult matchup, however, as the Steelers have the pass rush to rattle a young quarterback. However, Browning has grown since the first start against the Steelers, so it’s reasonable to expect him to perform better this time as a result.

The Bengals may not have to rely on Browning anyway. The Colts ran all over the Steelers last week even though both Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss were sidelined. Trey Sermon looked like the second coming of Edgerrin James against Pittsburgh, so that bodes well for the Cincinnati running game, which has seen an injection of juice ever since Chase Brown has gotten a heavier workload.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Bengals have gotten so much out of their backup quarterback. The Steelers, on the other hand, have not. Mitchell Trubisky was a total disaster last Saturday. He gave the game away with two horrible interceptions, ultimately getting benched in favor of Mason Rudolph.

Rudolph has been announced as the starter, which is great news for Pittsburgh. Not that Rudolph is good or anything, but he has to be better than Trubisky, who should not be in the NFL. Rudolph should function as a caretaker of the offense better than Trubisky did. He’ll be able to connect with Pat Freiermuth often, as Cincinnati’s defense is very weak to tight ends.

The Bengals also struggle against the run. Pounding the ball relentlessly is an easy way to beat them. We know the Steelers can do this because Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combined for 148 rushing yards on 28 carries in the prior meeting, and that was with D.J. Reader playing on the other side. Reader has been knocked out for the year.

RECAP: Browning fell to the Steelers in his first start, but he’ll play better this time. How much better is the question, and it’ll depend on how well the Bengals run the ball because Joe Mixon did nothing in the first matchup.

Conversely, the Steelers ran all over the Bengals, and the matchup will be even better with Reader sidelined. Pittsburgh’s ability to dominate on the ground is why I’m going to pick them, but I wish we knew how well Rudolph would play. Pickett was awesome against the Bengals in the previous matchup, so if Rudolph can play at 80 percent of that ability, the Steelers should prevail.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds as though Kenny Pickett has a chance to play, with him being limited both Tuesday and Wednesday. However, I have no desire to back an injured quarterback, so I’d want Mason Rudolph to start if Pickett isn’t 100 percent. Furthermore, Ja’Marr Chase has yet to practice, and it seems as though he’s unlikely to play this week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Kenny Pickett has been ruled out, but so has Ja’Marr Chase. This line has moved to +3, which makes the Steelers so much more intriguing. I’m going to bet a couple of units on them.

PLAYER PROPS: Pat Freiermuth is the play here because the Bengals are one of the worst teams at defending tight ends. Mason Rudolph should be able to get the ball to him, unlike Mitchell Trubisky. The best number is over 26.5 receiving yards -110 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a decent amount of sharp money coming in on the Steelers at +3. This line has moved back down to +2.5 at some sportsbooks like Bookmaker. However, DraftKings still has +3 -112 still available. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -1.5.

Computer Model: Steelers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

This is not surprising.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 56% (72,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 25 of the last 34 meetings (Bengals won 4 of last 6 meetings).

Bengals are 21-9 ATS against the Steelers if they lost to them previously the same season in the last 30 instances.

Steelers are 42-22 ATS in December/January home games since 2000.

Mike Tomlin is 56-32 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Bengals -2.5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 46 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year, and they are now 27-24 ATS.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Rams -6.5

Eagles -3

Titans -2.5

Chiefs -9.5

Buccaneers +1.5

Sunday was a big day for the public, triumphing with the Rams and Chiefs, and only losing with the Titans at the very end. The public took it hard Monday night with the Eagles.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Rams -4

Texans -2.5

Broncos -6.5

Packers -4.5

Eagles -10.5

I strongly disagree with at least two of these!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills have been unstoppable on this side of the ball ever since Ken Dorsey was fired. They ripped right through Dallas’ highly ranked defense last week, as James Cook nearly reached 200 rushing yards. Cook was also a big factor as a receiver out of the backfield, which has been a trend ever since Dorsey was let go.

The Chargers are better against the run than the pass, but that won’t be a problem for the Bills. Josh Allen didn’t need to throw very much last week, but he’ll be able to torch the Chargers relentlessly. The Chargers are somewhat weak to outside receivers and can’t stop tight ends at all. This is the strength of Buffalo’s offense, so Stefon Diggs, Dalton Kincaid, and perhaps even Gabe Davis will thrive.

One other thing to note: While the Chargers are better versus the run, they stink at defending receivers out of the backfield. In fact, they’ve given up the second-most receiving yards to opposing backs. Cook will have another monster game as a result.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: This would be quite the game if Justin Herbert were healthy, but that’s not the case. Herbert is done for the year, so Easton Stick will make another start. Stick threw some touchdowns in garbage time last week, but was rather pedestrian before the Raiders stopped trying.

Stick would love to lean on a strong running game. Buffalo is weaker to the run than the pass, so this would be a possibility, except the Chargers have no rushing attack. Austin Ekeler is an excellent receiver out of the backfield, but he hasn’t been able to take advantage of plus matchups on the ground.

Ekeler should at least have a solid performance as a receiver, as the Bills also surrender top-10 receiving yards to opposing backs. However, Stick will still have to make some big plays, and it’s tough to see him doing that against Buffalo’s secondary. There will be some hope if Keenan Allen can play, as the Bills surrender the ninth-most production to slot receivers. Allen, however, may not be 100 percent even if he gets the green light to play.

RECAP: The Bills are coming off a huge statement win versus the Cowboys. Now, they have to play against an opponent they just saw lose 63-21. As huge favorites, will the Bills be focused? It’s fair to wonder how motivated Buffalo will be. Conversely, the Chargers will be playing inspired football as a result of the coach firing. Teams that fire their head coach cover the first game with their interim head coach more often than not. Since 2010, teams that have fired their head coach are 15-11 against the spread the following week.

However, I just can’t bring myself to bet this game. Motivation is the only angle we have. Not only are the Bills the far superior team; they also match up extremely well against the Chargers. If Buffalo shows up, it could win this game 49-10.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: James Cook popped up on the injury report with an illness, causing him to miss Wednesday’s practice. Speaking of missed practices, Keenan Allen has yet to practice, so it seems as though the Chargers will be without their star wideout once again.

SATURDAY NOTES: Keenan Allen is out, so I have to wonder how the Chargers will move the ball at all. Maybe they’ll get their via a back-door cover in garbage time, but I don’t want to rely on that. I’ll be on Buffalo, but won’t be betting them.

PLAYER PROPS: Stefon Diggs has a great matchup in this game against a Chargers secondary that allows top-five production to outside receivers. The best number for Diggs is over 69.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel.

SATURDAY PARLAY: We’re doing a Same Game Parlay plus one selection. We’re going to toss in Pat Freiermuth from the prior game, as well as Diggs, with Josh Palmer over 40.5 receiving yard and Dalton Kincaid over 3.5 receptions. Palmer is the Chargers’ No. 1 receiver with Keenan Allen out, and he could have some garbage-time production. Kincaid has a great matchup against the Chargers as well. This parlay pays +1174 and was created on FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ugh, Pat Freiermuth. Anyway, I’m going to bet a unit on the Bills. The best line is -12.5 -105 at FanDuel. There’s sharp money coming in on the Chargers. I assume this is for the motivational angle, which is why I’m limiting this wager.

The Motivation. Edge: Chargers.

The Bills just won a huge statement game. The Chargers will be trying hard for the interim head coach.

The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -16.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -9.5.

Computer Model: Bills -9.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Sharp money on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 75% (357,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Chargers are 19-30 ATS in San Angeles.

Opening Line: Bills -14.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. It’s always nice to hear from our friend John Capricotti:

I’m actually being serious about the 63-21 game not having much offense. Five of the Raider touchdowns came off turnovers.

Here’s more from John Capricotti:

I loved this exchange because it proves just how dumb John Capricotti is. Imagine downplaying a 5-percent edge in gambling. If you hit 51 percent of your bets, you will lose long term on -110 vig. If you hit 56 percent long term, you’ll be doing great. But five percent apparently means nothing to math whiz John Capricotti.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Desmond Ridder has been benched, so Taylor Heinicke will start this game. This benching is well deserved after Ridder threw a hideous interception right to Xavier Woods in the red zone last week. This was the catalyst for the loss that prevented Atlanta from being in a tie for first place in the division.

There’s no optimism for Heinicke, however. Heinicke started against the Cardinals earlier this season and was dreadful despite battling one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Colts are much better defensively than Arizona, especially after getting some players back from injury and suspension. One such player is Grover Stewart, who was suspended for six games. The Colts struggled to stop the run while Stewart was suspended, but they just put the clamps on Pittsburgh’s ground attack in the second game since he returned to action. They are likely to do the same to the Falcons, who don’t utilize their best running back anyway. It’ll be more of Tyler Allgeier because Arthur Smith is mind controlled by an alien parasite he has growing between his nose and his mouth.

One area the Falcons can attack is with their tight ends. The Colts struggle to stop tight ends, and Atlanta has two capable players at the position. This, however, is another point of frustration because the mind-controlled Smith calls plays for Jonnu Smith instead of the ultra-talented Kyle Pitts.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Falcons’ run defense is the opposite of the Colts. Atlanta used to be pretty stout against the run, but things went downhill for them when Grady Jarrett suffered a season-ending injury. David Onyemata, who is having an even better year, then got hurt. The Falcons, missing their top two defensive tackles, haven’t been able to stop the run at all recently.

This is obviously troubling in this matchup because the Colts want to run the ball down the opposition’s throat. Indianapolis blasted open holes for Trey Sermon of all people last week. It’s likely that we’ll see one of Jonathan Taylor or Zack Moss in this game, so unless Onyemata can return from injury, Indianapolis will be able to establish a strong rushing attack.

This will obviously help Gardner Minshew, who will need the boost. The Falcons are top five at restricting opposing receivers, so Michael Pittman may not be productive if he can clear concussion protocol. Atlanta is at its weakest versus tight ends when it comes to defending the pass, but the Colts don’t have a threat at the position.

RECAP: The Falcons have endured plenty of injuries lately, particularly in the trenches. None of these missing players, however, were on injured reserve. There’s a chance Kaleb McGary, Chris Lindstrom and Onyemata will be able to play in this game. If so, the Falcons will look much better than they have in recent weeks.

My pick will hinge on how healthy the Falcons are. They’ve had some serious injury problems in the past two games, and the results have reflected that. If they’re healthier, they’ll look appealing versus the Colts, who might be inflated as a result of their win over Mitchell Trubisky. However, the Colts are the play for now because their ability to stop the run with Stewart gives them the edge over the Falcons. Also, NFC South teams playing outside the division are just 13-25 against the spread.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jonathan Taylor has returned to a full practice, while Michael Pittman Jr. was limited with his concussion. The Falcons, meanwhile, didn’t have David Onyemata or Kaleb McGary in Wednesday’s practice, so this is obviously quite bullish for the Colts.

SATURDAY NOTES: Michael Pittman Jr. has cleared concussion protocol, but he was downgraded to limited in Friday’s practice with a shoulder issue. Meanwhile, things have improved for the Falcons, as Chris Lindstrom will return, while David Onyemata and Kaleb McGary are questionable after being limited to close out the week. Onyemata’s status is huge against Jonathan Taylor, who is going to play in this game.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re going with an under prop in this game. Drake London has a tough matchup, as Indianapolis ranks in the top 10 at limiting outside receivers. London also historically has struggled against cover-3 schemes. The best number is under 56.5 -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We were waiting on the Atlanta questionable players. It’s mixed news, as Kaleb McGary is out, but David Onyemata will play. The sharps are on the Falcons, presumably because of the Michael Pittman Jr. news. If you like Atlanta, -2.5 -120 is the best line at Bookmaker. I’m still on the Colts for a non-play. I don’t see anything better than +3 -115 across the board.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -1.5.

Computer Model: Colts -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

This is surprising.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 63% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Colts -2.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: “No Cookie” Jordan Love has had us all fooled so many times this year. When everyone expects him to play well, he sucks. When everyone is down on him, he thrives. He had a great matchup last week and was expected to bounce back from a loss to the Giants. Instead, he squandered an opportunity to beat the Buccaneers.

Granted, Christian Watson’s absence seems to have an impact on Love. The dynamic receiver had been coming on, so it’s not too much of a surprise that the Packers have struggled since losing him to injury. Even if Watson can return, it’ll be difficult for the Packers to move the chains aerially. The Panthers excel at stopping the pass. They generate great pressure on the quarterback, so Love may once again take bad sacks.

The Panthers are much worse against the run, but this may be an area in which the Packers can’t take advantage. Aaron Jones is a talented back, but he doesn’t seem to be 100 percent. Unless Jones is suddenly healthier, I can’t see Green Bay establishing the run very well.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers, conversely, figure to have lots of success on the ground. The Packers also have a woeful rush defense, so Chuba Hubbard should continue to run very well. Hubbard has been a nice surprise since replacing the benched Miles Sanders, thriving both as a rusher and a receiver out of the backfield.

Bryce Young will certainly welcome the rushing attack because he needs all the help he can get. Young is protected very poorly, so the Packers will be able to put lots of heat on him if he’s stuck in obvious passing downs.

Young, however, will have one positive matchup to exploit. The Packers are close to giving up top-10 production to slot receivers. This obviously benefits Adam Thielen, who has exclusively thrived in plus matchups this year.

RECAP: I hate to say it, but the Panthers look appealing. The Packers have reverted to the crappy team we saw that lost to the Raiders and Broncos in the middle of the season. I don’t know what happened to Love, but he has regressed after his two impressive wins against the Chiefs and Lions. Carolina’s terrific pass defense will limit him, so unless Jones is healthy, the Packers will struggle to run the ball. Conversely, the Panthers will have plenty of success on the ground because Green Bay hasn’t been able to stop the run in years.

Furthermore, this spread is too high. I don’t think the Packers deserve to be more than three-point favorites in Carolina. The EPA metrics agree, projecting this line to be Carolina +2.5.

The only problem here is actually placing a bet on Carolina. You never want to bet the worst team in the NFL unless you have a great reason to do so. I don’t know if what I detailed can be described as “great,” but it certainly seems like the Panthers should cover. Wagering real money on that possibility feels a bit nauseating, especially when remembering that NFC South teams are 13-25 against the spread outside of the division.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Five Carolina players were designated with an illness in Wednesday’s practice. I’m always wary of teams that may have the flu circulating throughout the locker room, so I’m going to switch my pick to Green Bay.

SATURDAY NOTES: Six Carolina players were tagged with an illness. I wish things were more bullish with the Packers, but they are not. Christian Watson is doubtful, Jayden Reed missed practice all week, and Dontayvion Wicks is questionable. This bodes poorly against a talented Carolina secondary. Also, the Packers will be without De’Vondre Campbell again, while Jaire Alexander is no lock to play once again. This horrible injury report spoiled a potential bet on the Packers.

PLAYER PROPS: It’s hard to find anything on Aaron Jones as of this writing. Jones has a great matchup against Carolina’s woeful run defense. And with the injuries the Packers have at receiver, they may not have a choice but to rely on Jones. The best number, or should I say, the only number is over 53.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The good news for the Packers is that Jaire Alexander will play. The bad news is that Jayden Reed is out in addition to Christian Watson. Dontayvion Wicks will play, but he may not be 100 percent. The sharps are on the Panthers. Carolina +4 is available at BetMGM. For the Packers, the best line is -3.5 -108 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -4.5.

Computer Model: Packers -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

The public is still fading the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 62% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 15-8 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Packers -4.

Opening Total: 36.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 60 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: C.J. Stroud, as of this writing, is still in concussion protocol. He has already missed one week, so it’s likely that he’ll return for this week’s game. Case Keenum did a good job of beating the Titans, but Houston will need Stroud on the field if it wants to defeat the Browns.

The Browns have a great defense overall, but they don’t play as well on the road. Also, they’re very reliant on generating great pressure on the quarterback, but Stroud is protected rather well by his offensive line.

Houston’s ability to negate Cleveland’s greatest strength will give them a big edge on this side of the ball, especially if Stroud is under center. Still, Stroud is in for a tough matchup because the Browns stop the pass extremely well. They’re No. 1 versus tight ends, and they rank in the top 10 against both outside and slot receivers. They also clamp down on the run very well, so it takes extraordinary talent to beat them. Stroud playing with a healthy Nico Collins and emerging Noah Brown behind a solid offensive line could qualify as such.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Joe Flacco was tested for the first time as Cleveland’s starting quarterback last week. Flacco had two easier matchups to begin his tenure with Cleveland, but had to battle Chicago’s top-five defense this past Sunday. The Browns were stuck on three points for most of the game, but Flacco came through in the clutch with big plays to Amari Cooper and David Njoku.

Flacco will need to step up once more because his team won’t get anything on the ground. The Texans have been terrific against the run this year. Derrick Henry barely escaped last week’s game with positive yardage, so it’ll be tough sledding for Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt.

I’m torn on whether or not Flacco will be able to lead the Browns to a win in this situation. On one hand, he has some talented threats, as Cooper and Njoku have plus matchups in this contest. On the other hand, it’s Joe Flacco. Can he put the Browns on his 39-year-old back and carry them to victory?

RECAP: We don’t know Stroud’s status yet, so we can’t have an official pick at the moment. If Stroud plays, I’m inclined to take the Texans at less than -3. The Browns are not the same defensively on the road, and I don’t like that Flacco will be forced to beat Houston’s pass-funnel defense. He can do it, as we saw last week, but it was still a close game at home.

If Stroud can’t go, it’ll be difficult to support Case Keenum against Cleveland’s defense. Perhaps I can do so if the Browns are favored by more than a field goal, but we’ll have to see what the line is once we learn the Stroud news. Check back later for more updates!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Reports indicate that C.J. Stroud is a longshot to play, which is weird that we’ve gotten something like that so early in the week. I’m definitely going to be on Cleveland if this is the case.

SATURDAY NOTES: C.J. Stroud is out, as are Houston’s two best defensive players (Will Anderson, Blake Cashman). Two other key defenders – Denzel Perryman, Maliek Collins – are iffy to play. The Browns look great, given these injury issues.

PLAYER PROPS: Joe Flacco has unlocked David Njoku, who has eclipsed 50 receiving yards in five of his six previous games. The best number is over 49.5 -119 at Caesars.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was concern that Joel Bitonio would miss this game, but he’s active. I still like the Browns for three units. The sharps are on Cleveland as well. The best line is -3 +100 at Bovada, followed by -3 -105 at FanDuel.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -1.5.

Computer Model: Texans -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 56% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks didn’t trust Drew Lock very much Monday night. They tried hard to establish Kenneth Walker against one of the NFL’s top ground defenses. It actually worked at times in the first half, but the Eagles clamped down on Walker as the night progressed. Seattle eventually had no choice but to have Lock air the ball out, and Lock responded with a great game-winning drive.

It remains to be seen if Lock will have to start again. It’s a short work week, but given that Geno Smith was close to returning for the Monday night game, he should be ready to go, barring a setback. Smith will have a terrific matchup at his disposal, as the Titans also possess one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Tennessee surrenders the third-most production to outside receivers, which means D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are due for big games.

The Seahawks will once again struggle to establish the run. Walker has a difficult matchup versus Tennessee’s stout ground defense. This is worth noting because if Smith were to tweak his groin, the Seahawks would likely go run-heavy again with Lock under center.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans also have a positive matchup on this side of the ball. It won’t involve the passing attack, but rather their running game. As you might imagine, this will please Mike Vrabel, who wants to do nothing but pound the rock versus the opposition.

The Seahawks surrender top-10 rushing production to running backs. This obviously does not bode well against Derrick Henry, who was stymied by Houston’s great rush defense last week. The Titans are so much better when Henry runs well, as the rest of the offense functions at a higher level. Tyjae Spears figures to thrive as well because the Seahawks allow the 10th-most receiving yards to opposing backs.

Henry and Spears being productive will make life easier for Ryan Tannehill, who will draw the start in the wake of Will Levis’ injury. It’s not the easiest matchup for Tannehill, but he’ll be able to move the chains in short-yardage situations. His best weapon could be Chig Okonkwo because the Seahawks allow the seventh-most yardage to tight ends.

RECAP: Both teams seem to match up well offensively against the other. The Titans have a pass-funnel defense, so Seattle’s dynamic receivers will have a field day in this contest. The Seahawks, meanwhile, allow plenty of rushing yardage to opposing backs, so unlike last week, Tennessee can get Henry going.

The one caveat is Smith’s groin injury. If he misses this game or tweaks his injury, Lock will take over, which will force Seattle into a more run-heavy attack. This will play right into Tennessee’s hands.

The Titans are worth a speculative play on that possibility alone. Furthermore, Mike Vrabel is appealing as a home underdog. Vrabel is 12-8 against the spread in such situations, and he’d be 13-7 ATS if he didn’t lose that bogus game against the Colts where two punts were blocked and the game-winning extra point was missed.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Geno Smith practiced fully on Wednesday. Many Seahawks did not, however, including Kenneth Walker, Devon Witherspoon, Quandre Diggs, and Jamal Adams.

SATURDAY NOTES: Geno Smith is not on the injury report. Will Levis is, as he was DNP-DNP-limited in practice this week. I expect him to be out, and he’ll be joining a bunch of Titans, including Jeffery Simmons, Amani Hooker, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and K’Von Wallace. I hate this injury report for the Titans, but I still like them a bit at this number.

PLAYER PROPS: The last time D.K. Metcalf was limited to fewer than 61.5 receiving yards when not battling the 49ers or Ravens was Week 4. The Titans are terrible versus outside receivers. The best number is over 61.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Titans are still the play for me, even with Will Levis out. Sharp money came in on Tennessee at +3.5. The best line still available is +3 -108 at Bookmaker and FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -2.

Computer Model: Titans -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 59% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Geno Smith is 3-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+.

Titans are 30-20 ATS in non-conference home games.

Mike Vrabel is 25-13 ATS as an underdog of 3+ points.

Opening Line: Seahawks -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 64 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: There was some speculation that Aaron Rodgers would return for this game if the Jets were still in playoff contention, but that’s obviously not the case because they’ve been eliminated. Zach Wilson may not even play either because of a concussion he suffered last week.

Enter, Trevor Siemian, the backup quarterback beaten out by Tim Boyle for the No. 2 job in the wake of Rodgers’ injury. Siemian has a great matchup because the Redskins haven’t been able to stop the pass at all this year, but it’s doubtful that he’ll be able to take advantage of it. Not only does Siemian suck; his offensive line won’t protect him at all because it’s so dreadful.

Siemian won’t be able to lean on the run either. While the Redskins have been abysmal against the pass, they’ve thrived at stopping opposing ground attacks. Breece Hall won’t get much rushing production as a consequence.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: It remains to be seen whom the Redskins will tab as their starting quarterback in this game. The ideal choice would be Sam Howell because he’d give them the best chance of losing, which would allow them a greater opportunity of securing one of the top quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft. Jacoby Brissett, who is so much better than Howell, would crush Washington’s future.

I imagine Ron Rivera will go with Brissett because he’s trying to save his job. Brissett has a difficult matchup against the Jets’ ferocious pass defense, but he’ll at least give the Redskins a shot of being productive aerially. All Howell will do is take bad sacks and throw interceptions.

Then again, neither Brissett nor Howell may have to do much in this matchup. The Jets really struggle against the run, and the Redskins want to pound the ball with Brian Robinson, who may have a chance of returning for this game after sitting out last week’s affair.

RECAP: How do the Jets get up for this game? They thought they still had a chance for the playoffs, and if they were still alive, Rodgers would have returned for this game. Losing to the Dolphins, however, ended their season.

Given this disappointment, I don’t see how the Jets can summon the energy to play hard against a non-conference foe. Conversely, the Redskins might play harder amid the anticipated quarterback change. I like their matchup anyway with Robinson being able to move the chains against the Jets’ run-funnel defense.

I’d like to click the button to bet the Redskins, but I don’t want to heavily bet on the worst team in football. Many would recognize the Panthers as such, but the Redskins are actually dead last in the metrics. Then again, they’ll be better with Brissett, so I’m willing to bet on them, especially with four key numbers versus a deflated Jet team. Three units is the highest I’ll go.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Reports indicate that Zach Wilson is a longshot to play. I’ll also say it’s a longshot for the Jets to try hard in this game, especially if Wilson sits.

SATURDAY NOTES: Zach Wilson is out, so the Redskins are the play. However, the Redskins will be missing a couple of offensive linemen, which seems problematic against the Jets. Also, it seems as though Sam Howell will start, which isn’t ideal. I’m going to drop this pick to two units.

PLAYER PROPS: Breece Hall hasn’t exceeded 40 rushing yards since Week 9, yet his rushing prop is 48.5. It’s not like this is even a good matchup, given that the Redskins are stout against the run. The best number is under 48.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line hasn’t moved at all. It’s the lowest-bet game of the day, and the sharps haven’t touched it. I like the Redskins a bit, and the best line is +3 -113 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.

The Jets were just eliminated from the playoffs.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -3.

Computer Model: Jets -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Washington: 56% (78,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Jets -3.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 47 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

Video of the Week: I loved this video displaying the differences between a California parent and an immigrant parent:

As the son of two immigrants, I just got some serious flashbacks. I’m glad my parents raised me well an weren’t bozos like many California parents.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions had a great edge against the Broncos last week. Denver is ranked highly on defense, but it had two major flaws on that side of the ball. The Broncos can’t stop running backs or tight ends, and Detroit primarily attacks with both. The result was a 42-point output.

The Vikings, conversely, shine in both areas. They’ve allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards in the NFL, and they also rank in the top 10 versus tight ends. Defending the slot is also important versus Detroit because that’s where Amon-Ra St. Brown plays. The Vikings are close to the top 10 in that aspect as well, though St. Brown can break through any matchup.

Something else worth noting is that Jared Goff isn’t great against the blitz. He’s not terrible at it, but his stats drop considerably when he sees extra pressure. This is significant because the Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the NFL.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings nearly pulled off an upset last week with Nick Mullens commanding the offense. Mullens was supposed to be a better caretaker than Joshua Dobbs, but he killed his team with two interceptions deep in Cincinnati territory. The Vikings likely would have pulled the upset if it weren’t for those give-aways.

Mullens, however, moved the ball very well otherwise, which bodes well for this matchup. The Lions have severe problems in the secondary, which Russell Wilson couldn’t expose last week. Mullens will have a better chance of doing so because of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. T.J. Hockenson should also have a big game versus a defense that typically struggles versus tight ends.

The one thing the Vikings won’t do well on this side of the ball is establish Ty Chandler again. Chandler was excellent versus Cincinnati last week, but the Lions are stout against the run.

RECAP: The public was hesitant to back the Lions last week because Detroit had lost two of three and seemed to be favored by too many points against the Broncos, yet the Lions matched up so well versus Denver.

This week, the opposite is true. The public is pounding Detroit as a result of the 42-point performance on national TV. However, the Lions don’t match up nearly as well against the Vikings. We’re getting good line value with Minnesota as a home underdog in this spot, as the EPA figures say that the Vikings should be favored by 2.5.

This looks like a very appealing opportunity to fade the public and back the home underdog. This game actually reminds me of the Lions-Bears game from a couple of weeks ago, except that Goff won’t have to play in the elements this time. Still, I love Minnesota to pull the upset.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I think I’ll be looking to lock in this pick sooner rather than later. I’m hoping for a good +3.5 line (-115 or better).

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing on the injury report has changed my mind about this game. I’m still holding out hope for a +3.5.

PLAYER PROPS: Justin Jefferson will be healthier in his second game back, so I like him here in a matchup against the Lions, who get torched by outside receivers. The best number is over 82.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

LOCKED IN: I’m going to lock in the Vikings now. I’m seeing some +3 -118s out there, so I’m worried this line will fall to +2.5. You can still get +3 -110 at BetMGM, Caesars and DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m glad I locked this in because this line is now +2.5 across the board. You can still get +3 -120 at FanDuel, which is worth it. The sharps are on the Vikings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.

Computer Model: Vikings -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 54% (176,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Vikings have won 9 of the last 11 meetings.

Vikings are 43-34 ATS at home since 2014 (12-19 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Lions -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.