June 9, 2009
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It’s June so either be happy or be worried… (NL edition)
As the calendar flips over to the next page, which is June nevertheless, most MLB teams have passed the 50 game mark and nothing has really changed in the National League as far as division leaders go with the exception of the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew lost their top two starters from last year’s Wild Card run and are even better than they were last year even with the loss of Rickie Weeks at second.
So with that I’ll throw some names out at you that you should be happy with their production at this point or you should be worried about and might need to pull off a trade to find their replacement. We’ll start with the bad news first just to get it out of the way.
** All stats through the morning of June 8, 2009
The Worrisome…
– Ricky Nolasco (SP, Florida Marlins)
The sole reason why this guy is back in the bigs is because their other young starter in Anibal Sanchez experienced some discomfort in his shoulder this past Thursday during a bullpen session. It was the same shoulder that landed him on the DL earlier in May. So the Marlins’ hands were forced and had no choice but to bring Nolasco back up from his banishment to Triple-A New Orleans of the Pacific Coast League. But since was New Orleans ever a punishment destination? I’m sure even the inmates down there have a good ol’ time. Okay, maybe not.
If you happen to be an unlucky owner of Nolasco who held on to him during his demotion then good for you. But just exhibit a little bit more patience and see how he does during his first start. You wouldn’t want to risk losing ERA and WHIP based on running Nolasco out there after his horrendous May where he gave up six bombs and had a ridiculous ERA of 12.23 in four starts. Marlins skipper Fredi Gonzalez finally had enough after he gave up eight earned to the Rays in just two innings on May 22. The zero home runs allowed in two starts for the Zephyrs is an encouraging sign though.
– Jimmy Rollins (SS, Philadelphia Phillies)
Getting to watch the World Champions on a nightly basis is a blast. But I can tell you right now what is NOT a blast; watching J-Roll struggle as mightily as he has at the plate this season. In the field he’s as good as any shortstop in the league and he does with a lot of pizzaz. But when it comes to feeding at the dish, pitchers are making a feeding frenzy out of the 2007 NL MVP. Shortstops that hit 30 homers, swipe 40 bags, and knock in almost 100 are drooled upon, (see Ramirez, Hanley). But here’s the problem, Rollins hasn’t come anywhere near that since his magical ’07 season where he also grabbed 20 triples.
Rollins is past his days of swinging at fastballs that are level with the helmet on his 5-foot-8 frame. However, every at bat seems like a pop-up to the middle infield and with runners on base, it’s even more frustrating to watch. His average with runners in scoring position is at a paltry .207 in 58 at-bats this season. Rollins is the kind of guy who is perfect for this lineup because he can either get on base for the boppers in the middle of the lineup or drive in the guys at the bottom of the lineup who are actually getting on base for the Phitins this season. The only encouraging thing that Rollins has going for him is his .273 average and .385 on-base percentage hitting out of the 5-hole this season. Manager Charlie Manuel actually stuck Rollins in the 6-hole during the June 7 nationally broadcasted game against the Dodgers. Rollins responded by going 2-for-4 with a run scored. This could turn into a regular occurrence to help Rollins get his offensive production back on track. Besides, it doesn’t hurt to have another bat at the bottom of the best lineup in baseball. Stay patient but keep an eye on Alcides Escobar, of the Brewers, as a cheap replacement if he gets called up.
– Garrett Atkins (1B/3B, Colorado Rockies)
Atkins’ stock continues to drop amongst ESPN fantasy managers as he sits at just 70.1 percent owned. His average of .196 comes at somewhat of a surprise for the career .291 slugger. He has always been a mainstay in the heart of that always potent Rockies lineup but is now a mist, not even a shadow, of his former self. His best numbers this season are actually with runners in scoring position with two outs. He’s hitting .242 in those situations with eight runs knocked in. Listen, I know .242 is nothing to praise but it’s a heck of a lot better than .196.
It comes to no surprise that the Rockies are struggling this year and are currently sitting in the cellar of the perennially weak NL West, 14.5 games behind the Dodgers. Jim Tracy has replaced Clint Hurdle as manager and he is looking to give some other guys a shot in the lineup. The manager of the 2004 NL West Champion Dodgers wants results and he has threatened to send Atkins to the minors if he does not get his act together soon. Atkins has appeared to be healthy so the only thing for him to do now is produce before he finds himself in Colorado Springs. If you’re looking for a replacement at third, Mat Gamel of the Brewers will likely find himself taking more and more of Bill Hall’s at-bats. The kid has power and reminds you, well slightly, of Ryan Braun minus the fact that Gamel strikes out at a much higher rate that Braun. Nevertheless, he’s available in most leagues but get on the ball sooner than later if you play in a deep NL-only league. He’s already been on two different teams in my league.
– Lance Berkman (1B, Houston Astros)
With a lineup that embodies Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, and Miguel Tejada, (who is leading the NL in batting average), you would think that the Astros would be doing much better than what they are offensively and overall. Their 4.25 runs scored per game is good enough for fifth worst in the league. A big reason for the lack of run production leads to the struggles of one Big Puma, aka Lance Berkman. Berkman is a cheaper option at first than your Prince Fielders, Albert Pujolses, and Ryan Howards. He falls in that second-tier along with Todd Helton, Derek Lee, Carlos Delgado, and represents more of the older slugging first baseman. But certainly, he belongs at the top of that second-tier.
But here’s the problem for Berkman this season. The career .299 hitter is at an uncharacteristic low of .240. Granted, he’s never hit this low since his first season in the bigs 10 years ago. Manager Cecil Cooper has moved him out of his customary 3-hole position and inserted Pence there and allowed Bourn to bat leadoff full time now. Berkman is still a commodity and should probably be left untouched on your roster. The encouraging sign is that in 25 June at-bats, Berkman is hitting .333. But you can’t but wonder if this is the beginning of the end for the Big Puma.
The Gleesome…
– Carlos Ruiz (C, Philadelphia Phillies)
Catchers usually don’t matter much in fantasy because there aren’t many known for their offensive prowess. Unfortunately, playing in Philadelphia, the fans want EVERYONE to hit or else they get booed lustily, (especially if they leave runners on base at a crucial point of the game). Fortunately for Chooch, he’s been knocking the ball around every which way possible and has continued to develop his game offensively. The problem is that pitchers don’t seem to notice his development in the batter’s box, including Randy Wolf, who gave up a 2-run homer to Ruiz in a nationally televised game June 7.
While Ruiz hit at-least .300 in his two seasons at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, his offensive production was not so noticeable once he reached the majors. His ’07 batting average of .259 was respectable and his .280 average, to go along with 41 RBIs, when runners were in scoring position was even better. Yet in ’08, things fell apart for Chooch at the plate as he finished with just a .219 batting average and grounded into 14 double plays. He entered 2009 as the 27th ranked catcher in USA Today’s Sports Weekly 2009 Fantasy Baseball Special Edition. He’s currently hitting .297 with an unusually high on-base percentage of .423. The number is unusual because his career OBP is a full 80 points lower. Sure, the sample size is small through just 96 at-bats for Ruiz but it’s encouraging for the man behind the plate of the world champions.
– Nick Johnson (1B, Washington Nationals)
This is a feel good story if only because Johnson has only played in more than 130 games in three of his eight career seasons of MLB service. No, Johnson doesn’t play full seasons because he’s not a starter, because he is. It’s just that Johnson suffers every injury possible, including a broken femur in his right leg back in September 2006 during a career season. Time after time again, Johnson works his butt off to come back and probably has some sort of good luck charm to fend off the injury demons which have plagued him his entire career.
Maybe those lucky charms, not the cereal, are beginning to pay off for Johnson as he’s currently hitting .332 with an on-base plus slugging percentage of .903, which is higher than the aforementioned Lance Berkman’s this season. The Nationals have the sixth-best offense in the NL with a total of 260 runs scored as well as the sixth-best batting average at a mark of .263. Johnson has a lot to do with the Nats’ success at the plate this season. Coming into this season, he was ranked behind Ronnie Belliard, (41st overall), in first baseman rankings in the USA Today Fantasy Baseball Special. Expect him to be somewhere in the top-25 next season. He will probably still be available in the middle to late rounds in your draft next season, even if he does keep this up.
– Barry Zito (SP, San Francisco Giants)
The most frustrating point of the auction draft in my NL-only league happened in the 19th round on the Sunday of Opening Day before the Phillies took on the Braves in South Philadelphia. Barry Zito was nominated and instantly I thought, “How funny would it be if I took Zito as a practical joke and he actually had his breakout year this season?” Well I went for it and bid one of my few remaining dollars on the $126 million dollar man. There was a time limit of around 20 seconds, I believe, to bid on a player. My dollar stood unchallenged for 15 of those seconds when suddenly, someone else decided to go a dollar higher. I was unmatched. I didn’t have enough to compete in a bidding war with a player who lost 30 games in his first two seasons in the Senior Circuit. I was crushed.
Now, seeing Zito’s resurgence haunts me even more as he boasts a sub-four ERA and a so-so WHIP of 1.37. Sure, these numbers are a far cry from what he used to put up while with the Oakland A’s, but to see Zito begin to prove that he’s worth the nine-digit contract is encouraging. He does play for the offensively challenged Giants so his win totals will be in the low double-digits at best. He receives a meager 2.3 runs of support per start. It’s not only pathetic, but also sad. He currently sits at 2-6 but from a fantasy perspective, in my opinion anyway, a pitcher’s W-L record is a moot point as long as they possess a presentable ERA and WHIP. Mr. Zito is on his way to fantasy relevance again but if you own the big lefty, don’t expect many wins. Not with that offense behind him.
– Huston Street (RP, Colorado Rockies)
When Street came over in the Matt Holliday trade, many saw him as a set up man for who was then to be considered the closer in Manny Corpas. That held true through Spring Training as Corpas had a 0.82 ERA during the exhibition season while Street’s sat at an undesirable 4.76. Well come the regular season, the scripts have been flipped and Corpas is now the set up man for the 25-year-old Street. By May 3, Corpas was 0-3 with just one save, another blown, and a 6.75 ERA. That was enough to earn him the demotion to a lesser role in the Rockies’ bullpen.
Enter Street, who fell out of favor for the closer’s job in Oakland due to seven blown saves in 2008, has emerged onto the scene for the Rockies like a man with something to prove. He saved eight straight before blowing one to the Astros on June 2. His numbers have been better than some of the more established closers of NL like Brad Lidge, Matt Lidstrom, and Kevin Gregg. His WHIP sits at just 1.16 and is holding hitters to a batting average of just .226. The only alarming statistic is his .286 BABIP, (batting average of balls in play; which judges how effectively the defense turns balls in play into outs), which shows that he’s lucky that his ERA is as low as it is. Regardless, he’s still available in about 20 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues and could be a low cost option if you’re looking to trade for a reliever. Vice versa, this is the best time to deal Street if you own him, especially in an NL-only format league.
2011 Fantasy Baseball Home
2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catchers - 3/14
2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: First Basemen - 3/15
2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Second Basemen - 3/16
2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Closers - 3/17
More 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings to be posted soon.
NFL Picks - Nov. 20
2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20
NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4
