2010 NCAA Tournament Picks: Midwest

Kansas (32-2)

WHY TO LOVE: So many reasons why Kansas is awesome:

– Sherron Collins (15.3 ppg, 4.3 apg) is the best experienced point guard in the NCAA Tournament. He was on Kansas’ championship team and knows what it takes to win.

– Kansas has tons of experience; they advanced to the Sweet 16 last year and gave runner-up Michigan State everything it could handle.

– The team as a whole shoots 40.4 percent from three. Collins (37.6%), Xavier Henry (40.7) and Tyrel Reed (44.9) can all drain long-range jumpers.

– The Jayhawks are a rabid defensive team, allowing just 63.6 points per game.

– Kansas was 9-2 on the road, losing only at Tennessee and Oklahoma State. Impressive away victories came at Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Kansas State and Temple.

– At 6-11, 245, Cole Aldrich (11.3 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 3.5 bpg) is a beast inside.

– Fulfills all five requisites in the Portrait of a Champion (returning head coach, scored 76 ppg, 10+ margin of victory, in the tournament last year, seeded 1-4).

WHY TO HATE: Three of the top five scorers are underclassmen. However, everyone but Xavier Henry has Sweet 16 tournament experience, so it’s not that big of a deal.

THE VERDICT: Kansas is my favorite to win the NCAA Tournament.
Ohio State (27-7)

WHY TO LOVE: Everyone wrote off the Buckeyes when 6-7 junior swingman Evan Turner broke two bones in his back. Turner, however, came back way ahead of schedule and has been playing at an extremely high level. How high? In his final five games prior to the Big Ten Tournament, Turner averaged 21.6 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. He’s easily one of the top players in the country, and he’s capable of carrying Ohio State deep into the NCAA Tournament.

Turner is just one of four Buckeyes to average more than 12 points per game. The others: sophomore guard William Buford (14.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg), junior guard Jon Diebler (12.6 ppg) and junior swingman David Lighty (12.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg).

Ohio State shoots well from beyond (37.9%). Four regulars hit better than 36 percent: Buford (36.5), Diebler (41.9), Lighty (38.5) and Simmons (37.7).

The Buckeyes play excellent defense, limiting opponents to 60.4 points per game.

Ohio State is just 6-5 on the road, but 6-2 with Turner in the lineup. They’ve won at Michigan State and Purdue.

This team is on fire; they finished the regular season on a 10-1 clip.

WHY TO HATE: I really can’t find anything. They hit 69 percent of their free throws, but that’s not terrible. You know a team is good when you have to reach to find a weakness.

Doesn’t fulfill all five requisites in the Portrait of a Champion (returning head coach, ~~scored 76 ppg~~, 10+ margin of victory, in the tournament last year, seeded 1-4).

THE VERDICT: Evan Turner is arguably the top player in the country, and he has a great supporting cast. It would not shock me at all if Ohio State won the national championship. I’ll probably have them in my Final Four.
Georgetown (23-10)

WHY TO LOVE: Georgetown has another big man. Sophomore Greg Monroe (6-11, 247) averages 16.0 ppg and 9.6 rpg. His presence really opens up easy jumpers for junior Austin Freeman (17.3 ppg, 47.9% 3PT) and sophomore Jason Clark (10.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 42.2% 3PT).

Junior Chris Wright is a very capable point guard; he averages 14.2 ppg and 4.0 apg. He can hit the outside shot as well, but not nearly as well as Freeman or Clark (33.3%).

The Hoyas can win tough road games. They went into two hostile environments (Pittsburgh and Louisville) and came away with victories of eight and 10.

WHY TO HATE: Monroe is talented, but he’s been accused of being too passive at times. As a mere sophomore, will he be aggressive enough to take over a game if his team needs him to? He was great in the Big East Tournament, so this was a positive sign.

Freeman, the team’s leading scorer, was recently diagnosed with diabetes. However, he played really well in the Big East Tournament. It seems like that situation will be a non-factor in terms of Georgetown’s NCAA Tournament run.

None of Georgetown’s starters are seniors.

The Hoyas are not a deep team. If they get into foul trouble, they will struggle.

Doesn’t fulfill all five requisites in the Portrait of a Champion (returning head coach, ~~scored 76 ppg~~, ~~10+ margin of victory~~, in the tournament last year, seeded 1-4).

THE VERDICT: The Hoyas are really coming on. Though they don’t have senior leadership, they’re more than capable of making it to at least the Sweet 16.
Maryland (23-8)

WHY TO LOVE: Gary Williams is an outstanding coach who hasn’t lost a first-round NCAA Tournament game since 1997. In fact, look at Williams’ results when he’s had a team with 23-plus victories since 1999: Sweet 16, Second Round, Final Four, NCAA Champion, Second Round. I think it’s safe to say that the Terps won’t be upset in the first round.

Senior guard Greivis Vasquez is one of the top players in the country. Vasquez averages 19.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg and 6.3 apg. He also nails 38.2 percent of his threes.

Including Vasquez, Maryland’s top three scorers are seniors. The others are forward Landon Milbourne (12.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Eric Hayes (11.0 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 3.9 apg).

The Terps don’t shoot many threes, but when they do, they make them. As a team, they hit 39.3 percent from beyond. Eric Hayes makes an amazing 45.2 percent of his long-distance shots.

Maryland finished 8-3 on the road. Impressive away victories came against Florida State and Virginia Tech.

Fulfills all five requisites in the Portrait of a Champion (returning head coach, scored 76 ppg, 10+ margin of victory, in the tournament last year, seeded 1-4).

WHY TO HATE: Maryland lacks in size and consequently doesn’t rebound very well. They have an outstanding stable of guards, but a talented balanced team will be a tough matchup for them.

THE VERDICT: This is a very good Maryland team, and I’ll be shocked if they’re not playing on the second weekend.
Michigan State (24-8)

WHY TO LOVE: This is the same Michigan State team that took on North Carolina in the championship last year, minus Goran Suton. Last season’s top scorer is this season’s top scorer; point guard Kalin Lucas is one of the top floor-generals in the nation. He averaged 14.8 points per game this season.

The Spartans have four double-digit scorers. In addition to Lucas, there’s senior forward Raymar Morgan (11.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg), junior guard Durrell Summers (10.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg) and sophomore Draymond Green (10.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 3.1 apg).

As you may know, Tom Izzo is an amazing coach. His tournament record is an impressive 29-10. Here are his results when he’s had a 24-plus win team: Final Four, NCAA Champion, Final Four, Final Four, NCAA Runner-Up. Wow.

WHY TO HATE: Michigan State was 8-4 on the road this year, but only one of those eight victories came against an NCAA Tournament team (Purdue).

The Spartans barely shoot any threes, but can you blame them? They hit only 33.3 percent of them. Only one regular (Chris Allen, 40.8) hits better than 35 percent.

This team turns the ball over a lot; the Spartans give the ball away 14 times per game (as a comparison, Wisconsin’s average is 9.0).

THE VERDICT: Michigan State has a shot to return to the Final Four given its seeding, and it’ll be a huge upset if they don’t at least make it to the Sweet 16.
Tennessee (25-8)

WHY TO LOVE: Senior swingman Tyler Smith was arrested a few months ago and left the team. The Vols didn’t buckle; instead, they showed great resolve and finished with a 12-5 run.

With Smith gone, only two Tennessee players average in double figures – but they’re both very good. Tall (6-7) sophomore guard Scotty Hopson (13.1 ppg, 36.2 3PT) leads the team in scoring, while power forward Wayne Chism (12.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg) is the team leader.

The Vols were just 5-5 on the road this year, but came away with some impressive victories at Mississippi State and Memphis.

Tennessee plays frantic press defense. Teams with weaker ball-handlers will have no chance.

WHY TO HATE: Same story, different year. The Vols take tons of three-pointers, but don’t hit any of them. They convert on just 32.2 percent of their long-distance attempts.

Bruce Pearl is a decent coach, but has never advanced past the Sweet 16. His NCAA Tournament record at Tennessee stands at a pedestrian 5-4.

THE VERDICT: Tennessee takes way too many unwarranted shots for my liking. They’ll probably win their first-round game, but I don’t like their chances of getting out of the first weekend.
Oklahoma State (22-10)

WHY TO LOVE: Guard play wins in March. Oklahoma State has three guards who average in double figures. Most prominent is James Anderson (22.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg) who is one of the top players in the nation.

Those three guards hit 35 percent or better from beyond the arc: Anderson (35.9%), Keiton Page (35.8) and Obi Muonelo (42.9).

WHY TO HATE: The Cowboys lost point guard Ray Penn in the middle of the season. Fred Gulley took over and has done a good job. However, he’s a freshman, meaning Oklahoma State violates Rule No. 1 of my NCAA Tournament Credo.

That’s not the only rule Oklahoma State violates. They were just 3-7 on the road. The Cowboys won at Kansas State, but overall they were unimpressive outside of their own arena. Oklahoma State violates Rule No. 4 of my NCAA Tournament Credo.

THE VERDICT: James Anderson is certainly capable of taking over a game and leading his team to a victory, but chances are that Oklahoma State will lose in the first round.
UNLV (25-8)

WHY TO LOVE: Junior guard Tre’Von Willis (17.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.5 apg) is one of the top mid-major players in the country.

UNLV was 8-7 on the road this year, winning impressively at New Mexico.

The Rebels play solid defense, limiting opponents to 63.8 ppg.

Lon Kruger is an excellent coach. In his previous two NCAA Tournament appearances, he has reached the Sweet 16 and second round.

WHY TO HATE: The Rebels violate Rule No. 6 of my NCAA Tournament Credo; they have only one reliable scorer.

UNLV is an undersized squad and rebounds poorly.

The Rebels shoot a lot of threes, but they may want to reconsider that strategy. As a whole, they hit just 32.9 percent of their long-range shots. Oscar Bellfield (38.1) and Kendall Wallace (44.6) are excellent three-point shooters, but Willis and Chace Stanback take too many long jumpers.

None of UNLV’s top six scorers are seniors. Two of the top three scorers are underclassmen.

THE VERDICT: Teams with only one reliable scorer usually exit the NCAA Tournament very early. UNLV will probably lose in the first round.
Northern Iowa (28-4)

WHY TO LOVE: Northern Iowa has great experience. Three of the team’s top four scorers – center Jordan Eglseder (12.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg), forward Adam Koch (11.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg), guard Ali Farokhmanesh (9.3 ppg) – are seniors. The other (Kwadzo Ahelegbe, 10.7 ppg) is a junior. This group nearly knocked off Purdue in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament.

The Panthers have three solid three-point shooters: Koch (36.4), Ahelegbe (35.9) and Farokhmanesh (36.8).

Northern Iowa plays suffocating defense, limiting the opposition to just 54.3 ppg.

WHY TO HATE: A violation of Rule No. 5 of my NCAA Tournament Credo: Northern Iowa has trouble scoring (63.3 ppg).

The Panthers don’t rebound well and they hit only 43.1 percent of their field goals.

THE VERDICT: I like watching this Northern Iowa team; they’re so tenacious on defense, and they have great chemistry and experience. Unfortunately, their offensive woes will be their undoing. They could get out of the first round if they play a flawed team, and while I wouldn’t be shocked if they reach the Sweet 16, they’re probably destined for a second-round exit.
Georgia Tech (22-12)

WHY TO LOVE: Georgia Tech is one of the most talented teams in the nation. As ESPN analyst and former Duke guard Jay Williams said, “they have the talent to reach the Final Four.” They have two top 2010 NBA Draft prospects – junior 6-9 forward Gani Lawal (13.6 ppg, 8.7 rpg) and junior 6-10 forward Derrick Favors (12.1 ppg, 8.4 rpg).

The Jackets rebound extremely well. They’re also very good from beyond the arc (36.8%). Some of their top long-ball shooters include Iman Shumpert (35.9), Brian Oliver (38.8) and as you may expect, Glen Rice Jr. (47.2).

WHY TO HATE: There’s a reason this team was on the bubble. The Jackets have a laundry list of flaws:

– They’re the sloppiest team in the tournament. They turn the ball over a whopping 16.1 times per game.

– Free-throw shooting is a miserable 65.2 percent.

– The frontcourt is awesome, but the guard play isn’t very good.

– They are just 3-8 on the road, and their only away victories came at UT-Chattanooga, Charlotte and North Carolina. This means they violate Rule No. 4 of my NCAA Tournament Credo.

– Inexperience: Four of the top six scorers are underclassmen.

THE VERDICT: Georgia Tech’s talent might win them a game in the NCAA Tournament, but they just have way too many flaws. There’s a good chance they’re a one-and-done team.
San Diego State (25-8)

WHY TO LOVE: San Diego State has four double-digit scorers, led by superstar freshman forward Kawhi Leonard (12.6 ppg, 9.5 rpg). Complementing him are junior forwards Malcolm Thomas (11.2 ppg, 7.9 rpg) and Billy White (10.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg), and junior guard D.J. Gay (10.5 ppg).

Though San Diego State doesn’t shoot the three very well, it has two very solid outside shooters: Gay (38.5%) and Chase Tapley (37.6).

The Aztec defense is excellent, allowing only 62.6 ppg.

WHY TO HATE: Inexperience is a factor. Including Leonard, San Diego State has two freshmen in its starting lineup. Three of the top six scorers are underclassmen.

San Diego State’s free-throw shooting is abysmal; the team is just 60.6 percent from the charity stripe. No regular hits better than 71.5 percent.

History is working against the Aztecs here; under head coach Steve Fisher, they’ve never won an NCAA Tournament game in two opportunities.

THE VERDICT: I wouldn’t bet on San Diego State winning a game in this Big Dance. They’re way too inexperienced, and their three-point shooting isn’t good enough.
New Mexico State (22-11)

WHY TO LOVE: This Aggies squad has been playing lights out ever since sophomore forward Troy Gillenwater joined the roster in February after being academically ineligible early. With Gillenwater in the lineup, New Mexico State is 9-3.

New Mexico State has a great offense that averages 78.9 points per game. Five players average in double figures, including three who average more than 14 points: junior guard Jahmar Young (20.5 ppg), senior guard Jonathan Gibson (17.7 ppg) and Gillenwater (14.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg). And don’t forget about junior forward Wendell McKines, who averages a double-double (11.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg).

The Aggies shoot brilliantly from beyond the arc, collectively hitting 37.2 percent. Some of the better shooters are: Young (37.0%), Gibson (41.3), Gillenwater (38.5) and Gordo Castillo (37.2).

WHY TO HATE: Excluding Utah State, New Mexico State has played three NCAA Tournament teams. All four games were losses to Saint Mary’s (100-68), New Mexico twice (97-87, 75-58) and UTEP (79-58). However, it must be noted that this was early in the year when Gillenwater was not on the active roster.

New Mexico State turns the ball over a bit too much (13.2 times per game). Rebounding is iffy as well.

THE VERDICT: I love this New Mexico State team to pull an upset (or two) depending on whom they’re seeded against. They’re a very talented offensive team that drill threes all game long.
Houston (18-15)

WHY TO LOVE: Aubrey Coleman is the nation’s leading scorer. The senior guard averages 26.0 ppg and 7.3 rpg. And Coleman isn’t Houston’s only dynamic scorer. Kelvin Lewis, another senior guard, scores 14.9 ppg.

The Cougars take great care of the basketball, turning it over only 9.1 times per game.

Houston has three solid three-point shooters: Lewis (39.0%), Adam Brown (37.2) and Desmond Wade (36.2).

WHY TO HATE: The Cougars had a great run in the Conference USA Tournament, knocking off both Memphis and UTEP. Unfortunately, this means that they violate Rule No. 2 of the NCAA Tournament Credo; underdogs that win their conference tournaments seldom fare well in the Big Dance.

Houston doesn’t rebound well and plays miserable defense, surrendering 74.6 ppg.

This team doesn’t shoot well either; its field-goal percentage is a woeful 41.9.

THE VERDICT: People will pick Houston to pull an upset or two after watching them win their conference tournament. I won’t. I think the Cougars are a one-and-done team.
Ohio (21-14)

WHY TO LOVE: Ohio has five players who average 9.7 points per game or more, and they’re led by junior guard Armon Bassett (16.7 ppg). The other guys: freshman point guard D.J. Cooper (12.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 5.9 apg), and junior forwards DeVaughn Washington (11.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Tommy Freeman (10.3 ppg).

Overall, the Bobcats aren’t great from beyond the arc, but they have one of the top three-point shooters in the country; Freeman hits 46.9 percent of his long bombs.

WHY TO HATE: As you may have seen above, the Bobcats have a freshman point guard. This is a violation of Rule No. 1 of my NCAA Tournament Credo.

Ohio also violates Rule No. 4; the team was just 5-9 on the road this season.

The Bobcats have played only one team in the NCAA Tournament seeded above No. 14. The result wasn’t pretty – Pittsburgh 74, Ohio 49.

Ohio doesn’t boast a good defense; they surrender 68.3 ppg.

THE VERDICT: Unless you’re talking about a once-in-a-decade prospect like Derrick Rose or John Wall, you don’t want to pick freshmen point guards in the NCAA Tournament. Ohio is a likely one-and-done.
UC-Santa Barbara (20-9)

WHY TO LOVE: UC-Santa Barbara has two dynamic scorers: swingman Orlando Johnson (17.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg) and forward James Nunnally (14.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg). Unfortunately, both are sophomores.

The Gauchos shoot threes very well; they are 38 percent as a whole, and they have three guys who hit better than 39 percent: Johnson (39.4%), Nunnally (45.7) and James Powell (42.2).

WHY TO HATE: Rule No. 4 of my NCAA Tournament Credo is violated here: this team was just 6-7 on the road.

The only NCAA Tournament team the Gauchos took on during the season was California. They lost by 21.

UC-Santa Barbara gives the ball away too much (15.4 turnovers per game). If they play a great pressing opponent, they could lose by 20-plus.

The Gauchos are a talented team, but they are very young. Four of their top five scorers are sophomores.

THE VERDICT: UC-Santa Barbara has some talent, but they are way too young and careless with the basketball. I’ll be shocked if they win a game in the NCAA Tournament.
Lehigh (22-10)

WHY TO LOVE: Guard C.J. McCollum is a very talented player. McCollum averages 18.9 ppg and 4.9 rpg, and hits 42.9 percent of his threes.

McCollum is joined by two senior double-digit scorers: guard Marquis Hall (11.0 ppg, 5.7 apg) and forward Zahir Carrington (10.8 ppg, 6.7 rpg).

The Mountain Hawks are terrific from three-point range (40%). Four players hit better than 36 percent: McCollum, Hall (37.1), Michael Ojo (36.7) and Dave Buchberger (45.2).

WHY TO HATE: I didn’t mention McCollum’s year because that belongs in this category. He’s a mere freshman.

Lehigh was just 7-8 on the road this season, meaning they violate Rule No. 4 of my NCAA Tournament Credo.

The best team the Mountain Hawks played all year is Richmond. They lost by 12.

The best part of watching the Lehigh-Lafayette championship was hearing that a prominent Lafayette player chose that school over Lehigh because he liked one of Lafayette’s science programs better. It’s almost unfair that these Patriot League teams have to compete with all of those one-and-done blue-chip basketball players.

THE VERDICT: Lehigh has the three-point shooting to potentially knock someone off, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

2010 NCAA Tournament: Midwest Bracket Picks

2010 NCAA Tournament: Midwest Bracket First Round

#1 Kansas over #16 Lehigh

Kansas may win on the basketball court, but Lehigh wins in the classroom. Too bad NBA players are paid way more than doctors and lawyers. Oh, the cruel world we live in.

#9 Northern Iowa over #8 UNLV

Northern Iowa has a suffocating defense, while UNLV has just one reliable scorer. I’m taking the Panthers, who gave Purdue all it could handle in the first round last year.

#5 Michigan State over #12 New Mexico State

I love this New Mexico State team. They’re very talented, and if they were matched up against any other No. 5 seed, they would win. But I’m not betting against Tom Izzo.

#4 Maryland over #13 Houston

Gary Williams hasn’t lost a first-round NCAA Tournament game since 1997. He’s not going down to Houston.

#6 Tennessee over #11 San Diego State

You have a young San Diego State team taking on a Tennessee squad that presses a lot and generates tons of turnovers. That’s a recipe for disaster.

#3 Georgetown over #14 Ohio

Ohio has a freshman point guard. Unless they steal some players from Ohio State, they’re not knocking off Georgetown.

#7 Oklahoma State over #10 Georgia Tech

This one was a really tough game to call, and it could go either way. I chose Oklahoma State because of its superior guard play. Having said that, this isn’t very important; neither of these teams will beat Ohio State in Round 2.

#2 Ohio State over #15 UC-Santa Barabra

Ohio State wins in basketball. UC-Santa Barbara wins in weather. Personally, I’d rather have the weather, but I’m a Penn State alumnus. What do I know about basketball?

2010 NCAA Tournament: Midwest Bracket Second Round

#1 Kansas over #9 Northern Iowa

I love this Northern Iowa squad. They’re a true team, and they play incredible defense. I was hoping they would be a 10-12 seed so they could make a run. Unfortunately, Kansas will beat them.

#5 Michigan State over #4 Maryland

The rule with Michigan State is that you pick them to go one round further than you think they will. Most people will have them losing to Maryland, but I think Tom Izzo and elite point guard Kalin Lucas find some way to beat the Terps.

#3 Georgetown over #6 Tennessee

Bruce Pearl is a mediocre NCAA Tournament coach. His team loves taking threes even though they can’t make them. I like Georgetown here.

#2 Ohio State over #7 Oklahoma State

As I said earlier, I seriously doubt Oklahoma State or Georgia Tech will give Ohio State major problems. This Buckeye team is awesome.

2010 NCAA Tournament: Midwest Bracket Sweet 16

#1 Kansas over #5 Michigan State

As good as Tom Izzo is, he’s not beating the Jayhawks. This Kansas team is going to the Elite Eight without much of a challenge.

#2 Ohio State over #3 Georgetown

Greg Monroe will be tough for the Buckeyes to handle, but you can say the same thing about the Hoyas’ prospects of defending Evan Turner. Turner is the best player in this game and perhaps the entire NCAA Tournament. I’m siding with him.

2010 NCAA Tournament: Midwest Bracket Elite Eight

#1 Kansas over #2 Ohio State

I hate this. Kansas and Ohio State were my two favorites to win the NCAA Tournament, yet the inept selection committee placed them in the same bracket. How does that happen? Why are the top No. 1 and 2 seeds meeting up in the Elite Eight? Well, I hope everyone enjoys watching the national championship on the second Sunday of the Big Dance. At any rate, I’m giving Kansas a slight edge over Ohio State because they fit all five traits of the Portrait of a Winner (see the credo for details).