2024 NFL Week 19 – Packers(11-6) at Eagles(14-3) Eagles -5.5
Week 19 NFL Pick: Eagles 34, Packers 28
Eagles -5.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 22, Packers 10
PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It’s currently unclear if Jalen Hurts will be able to play in this game. Hurts entered concussion protocol during the Week 17 battle against the Redskins, but he’s still in it. He could be cleared by kickoff, but it has to be worrying for Philadelphia that he failed to exit the protocol during the idle week.
If Hurts can’t go, it’ll be either Kenny Pickett or Tanner McKee. Obviously, backup quarterbacks have done quite well for the Eagles in the playoffs over the years, and this game could add to that legacy. The Packers have issues at outside cornerback with Jaire Alexander injured, which seems like a big problem against A.J. Brown. The Packers will need to counter this with a dynamic pass rush, but it doesn’t seem like their edge players will be able to beat Philadelphia’s great tackles.
Conversely, Saquon Barkley has a difficult matchup. Though he exploded for a brilliant Week 1 performance against the Packers, Barkley has his work cut out for him in this matchup, as Green Bay has risen to third in the rush defense rankings.
GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Hurts isn’t the only questionable quarterback in this game. “No Cookie” Jordan Love banged his arm in the Week 18 game against the Bears and had to leave with some sort of injury. It didn’t look like he had feeling in his fingers, which would obviously be problematic with a game coming up on no rest.
Love’s arm injury isn’t the only concern the Packers have. Christian Watson was knocked out with an injury as well, so unless he makes a miraculous recovery, Green Bay won’t have its dynamic speed threat in this game. We’ve seen over the past two seasons that the Packers aren’t the same without Watson, which makes sense because they have a bunch of No. 2 receivers who can’t take the top off the ball. They will not threaten Philadelphia’s secondary.
It would be nice if the Packers would be able to turn to the run amid these injuries, but that won’t be possible. While Green Bay is third versus the rush, the Eagles rank at the very top against it. Josh Jacobs won’t have much success on the ground as a consequence.
PICK RECAP: It’s rare when we don’t know one quarterback for a playoff matchup, but two questionable signal-callers is unheard of. And yet, that’s the position in which we’re in right now, thanks to injuries to Hurts and Love.
We’ll get some news on these quarterbacks later in the week, but any sort of seemingly positive news may not end up being so great. If Love tries to play hurt, he could be ineffective, as we’ve seen on a couple of occasions this year. And as for Hurts, quarterbacks coming off concussions have a very dubious track record of covering the spread. The fact that Hurts has been in concussion protocol for two weeks says that this concussion is serious, so it would be shocking if he were 100 percent in this game.
This may seem odd, but I’m probably going to be fading the team with the most seemingly positive quarterback news. Whichever quarterback rushes back too quickly can be faded because the other team will be giving 110 percent with its backup. And, as we very well know, one of these teams has had tremendous success with its backup quarterback in the playoffs, so it’s not like this is some sort of bizarre strategy.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love both practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday, so that’s a good sign that both will be available come Sunday. I still worry about them being 100 percent.
Eagles -5.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 22, Packers 10
GAME RECAP
Eagles 22, Packers 10
- The Packers had played sloppy football ever since shutting out the Saints on a Monday night. That erratic play continued in this game, and we saw signs of that immediately. The Packers lost a fumble on the opening kickoff return, allowing Jalen Hurts to throw a touchdown to Jahan Dotson to go up 7-0. Green Bay had some poor drives after that, including one possession that featured a terrific interception by Darius Slay.
Green Bay finally got its act together with a quality possession in the second quarter, yet another special-teams gaffe – a missed short field goal – ruined things again. Later, the Packers assembled their second solid drive of the half, but the possession concluded with another interception, with Love not seeing linebacker Zack Baun in coverage.
Despite these blunders, the Packers were able to hang around, trailing just 10-0 at halftime. They eventually drew to within 10-3, but had to overcome injuries on top of their mistakes. Elgton Jenins, Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs were all knocked out in the first three quarters, and Josh Myers exited in the final frame. All of these offensive injuries ruined Green Bay’s chances of sustaining consistent drives, while the Eagles eventually got their act together, as Saquon Barkley reached the 100-yard mark in the final minutes. - Though the Eagles prevailed, Hurts didn’t play a very good game. He missed some routine throws, showing lingering signs of his concussion.
- The Packers showed so much promise just a few weeks ago, but countless injuries and poor special teams play derailed their chances.
2024 NFL Week 20 – Rams(10-7) at Eagles(14-3) Eagles -7
Week 20 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Rams 13
Eagles -7 -104 (5 Units) – BetRivers — Incorrect; -$520
Eagles 28, Rams 22
PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The only reason I didn’t bet on the Eagles last week was because I was worried about Jalen Hurts coming off a concussion. Quarterbacks have a very dubious history returning from concussions, and Hurts predictably struggled. It didn’t end up mattering, however, as the rest of Philadelphia’s roster dominated the injury-ravaged Packers.
Hurts should play better this week. Of course, Sam Darnold would beg to differ after his disastrous performance against the Rams, but Hurts has far better protection than Darnold, whose Christian Darrisaw-less offensive line wasn’t fully exposed until last week. The Eagles actually have outstanding blocking, so Hurts will have all the time he needs to locate his talented receivers. Hurts’ mobility will help as well; he scrambled for 39 yards against the Rams in the prior meeting.
Speaking of the prior meeting, Saquon Barkley had one of the best running back performances in NFL history against the Rams. He dashed for 255 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries. The Rams have improved against the run since, but Barkley could still easily dominate this matchup.
LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I hate that I switched my Rams-Vikings pick because of the wildfires. I loved the matchup for the Rams. Matthew Stafford figured to have such an easy time against the Vikings because Minnesota blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL. Stafford is so good against the blitz that his completion percentage is higher when blitzed as opposed to when he’s not blitzed, which is unheard of.
Unfortunately for Stafford, the Eagles do not blitz often. In fact, only four teams blitzed less frequently than the Eagles this year. The Eagles don’t need to blitz because they have such a devastating front line. They sacked Stafford five times during the Week 12 meeting.
The Eagles are also one of the top teams when it comes to stopping the run, or at least they were prior to Nakobe Dean’s injury. We’ll see how Philadelphia performs against the run without Dean. The defense will certainly be tested against Kyren Williams.
RECAP: The Rams played with so much energy on Monday night. Donning Los Angeles fire department shirts, the Rams fought hard for those affected by the Los Angeles wildfires. The Rams ripped right through the Vikings, who never stood a chance. I joked that the ’85 Bears would have lost to the Rams, given how energized they were by the circumstances.
This sort of Super Saiyan strength can only last for so long, and it’s likely that the Rams will crash and burn, for the lack of a better word. I also worry about the Rams rising up and playing out of their class. They’re a Group B team, and whenever they’ve played against a Group A team since their Super Bowl victory, they’ve fallen short, save for one instance. They lost to the Lions in the playoffs last year, and then once again to open the season. The Eagles have beaten them twice in each of the past two years. The only exception is that the Rams beat the Bills in Week 14, but Buffalo was in an obvious letdown spot after crushing the 49ers in a nationally televised snow game.
The Eagles have beaten the Rams by 17 and nine in the past two meetings, and I suspect this encounter will be a repeat of what we’ve seen when these two teams clash. Stafford had a huge edge against the Vikings because Minnesota blitzes so much. He won’t have that advantage against the Eagles, who seldom blitz.
Also, there’s a chance that this game could be played in the elements. It’s very early in the week, but there’s a 23-percent chance of rain, which is not something a dome team wants to hear.
Eagles -7 -104 (5 Units) – BetRivers — Incorrect; -$520
Eagles 28, Rams 22
GAME RECAP
Eagles 28, Rams 22
- We were promied 3-5 inches of snow in this game, but there was no evidence of that in the opening half. There were a trio of touchdowns in the perfect conditions before intermission, with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts rushing for 62 and 44 yards, respectively. In between, the Rams drove down the field and Matthew Stafford found Tyler Higbee in the end zone.
The heavy snow arrived in the third quarter, which is when most of the action took place. The elements clearly had an impact on the game, as there were drops by both teams. Puka Nacua and A.J. Brown dropped deep passes, with Brown’s drop occurring near the goal line. Cooper DeJean also dropped a potential interception. Meanwhile, the Rams were impacted via a couple of turnovers, with Kyren Williams and Stafford both losing fumbles.
The Eagles, however, couldn’t take advantage of both take-aways. Barkley appeared to score a touchdown following the Williams fumble, but replay review ruled him down inches shy of the goal line. Philadelphia had to settle for a field goal because of an ensuing Lane Johnson false start. After the Stafford fumble, the Eagles appeared to be set up at the Los Angeles 3-yard line, but Mekhi Becton was ruled illegally downfield on a big Dallas Goedert reception.
Making matters worse for the Eagles, Hurts hurt his leg on an awkward tackle. He gave the Eagles nothing after that, even taking a safety at one point. He also was sacked 12 yards behind the line of scrimmage when Philadelphia was running out the clock. If it weren’t for Barkley’s 78-yard touchdown run, the Eagles would have been in deep trouble because they had to fight off two furious drives from Stafford at the end. The first concluded with a touchdown to Colby Parkinson, but the second ended in the red zone thans to a sack to preserve the victory for the Eagles. - Philadelphia bettors should consider sending an invoice to Jake Elliott or his agent. Elliott missed two extra points in this game. Had he converted, the margin would have been eight instead of six, allowing the Eagles to cover the spread.
2024 NFL Week 21 – Redskins(12-5) at Eagles(14-3) Eagles -6
Week 21 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Redskins 17
Eagles -6 -108 (5 Units) – Locked in at Bookmaker — Correct; +$500
Eagles 55, Redskins 23
Week 20 Analysis: We had a good week. It was very close to being an amazing week. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:
Redskins, 3 units (win): This one was never in doubt. Thanks to Evan Daniel for talking me into increasing my unit count on the Redskins.
Eagles, 5 units (loss): Ugh. Jake Elliott. Had he hit one of his missed extra points, we would have pushed. Had he hit both, we would have covered and won $1,750 on the week. Of course, the Rams kicker didn’t miss any extra points… By the way, if you’re an Eagles bettor, consider sending an invoice to Elliott or his agent to recoup your losses.
Bills, 5 units (win): I’m still confused as to why the Ravens were favored in Buffalo. The Bills were running away with this game for a while. I considered middling at halftime, but didn’t see a number I liked. I thought we’d get a favorable line if Buffalo scored on the initial possession in the third quarter, but that didn’t happen.
PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I saw a prominent account on Twitter declare that there was no overarching narrative surrounding the Eagles if they were to win the Super Bowl. What about the revival of the NFL running back? Saquon Barkley was tremendous once again versus the Rams. Barkley, who could have easily broken Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record had he gone for it, exploded for 205 rushing yards and two touchdowns on Sunday.
Barkley has an even better matchup in this game. The Rams entered last weekend ranked eighth against the run. The Redskins are 20th. In a loss, Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 105 yards and two touchdowns on only 14 carries, so imagine what Barkley will be able to accomplish on greater volume.
Jalen Hurts is also a rushing threat, provided he’s healthy. Hurts injured his leg on an awkward tackle in the second half against the Rams and was a shell of his former self after that. However, reports indicate that the injury isn’t very concerning, though it remains to be seen how accurate that is. Hurts scrambled for 39 yards and a touchdown in his only full game against Washington this year.
WASHINGTON OFFENSE: If Hurts matches that rushing total, there’s a decent chance he could outgain Jayden Daniels on the ground. That may seem like an odd thing to say because Daniels was so prolific against the Lions on Saturday night. However, the Eagles, knowing how to clamp down on scrambling quarterbacks because of their experience versus Hurts in practice, limited Daniels to just 18 rushing yards in the initial matchup. Daniels had a better second performance, but there was a quit factor with the Eagles, who lost Hurts to injury in the first quarter.
The Eagles are great against the run in general. They rank first against it, though I’d expect a slight decline in effectiveness with Nakobe Dean sidelined. Still, this is a Philadelphia squad that put the clamps on Derrick Henry in a December matchup. Brian Robinson Jr., who has been underwhelming in far too many games this year, won’t get much on the ground.
Daniels will have to do everything himself, which was the case in the first matchup. Daniels was woeful in that game, going 22-of-32 for 191 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Those numbers don’t seem horrible, but keep in mind that they were enhanced by a garbage-time drive that featured Daniels’ touchdown to Zach Ertz. The Eagles have a stellar secondary that should get back Quinyon Mitchell from the injury he suffered against the Rams, so I don’t expect Daniels to play nearly as well as he did versus the porous Detroit defense on Saturday night.
RECAP: This is a rather simple handicap, save for one caveat. The Eagles closed -7 against the Rams, yet opened -4.5 against the Redskins. The Rams and Redskins are even teams – they are both Group B teams, and the hypothetical line between the two said as much – so why did the Eagles open -4.5 versus Washington when they closed -7 against the Rams?
This is classic public overreaction. Everyone wants to bet the Redskins because of what they saw Saturday night. The public is backing them at an extreme rate. Yet, everyone who is betting Washington has quickly forgotten that the Redskins would have lost to the Buccaneers had Baker Mayfield not fumbled on the end-around to Jalen McMillan, or if the Tampa center hadn’t botched the snap on a third down of Tampa’s final drive. The Redskins also had issues dispatching the Cowboys in the final week of the season despite going against Trey Lance. They also needed to go to overtime to beat the Falcons at home. They’re a good team, but they’re not a great team, and they do not belong in the NFC Championship.
Despite all of this, the public is betting the Redskins with poor line value. Fading such an overreaction and getting great line value is what handicapping the NFL is all about. This is as simple as it gets. The Eagles are a very easy five-unit play.
Except, for the one caveat. That would be Hurts’ health. We don’t quite know how injured he is. There are reports that the injury he suffered isn’t severe, but does that mean he’ll be 90 to 100 percent, or 60 to 70 percent for this game?
We’ll obviously be monitoring the practice reports throughout the week. If Hurts misses practices, or is limited all three days, it’ll be difficult to justify five units on Philadelphia. If, however, Hurts is able to practice fully most days, then we can wager a lot on the Eagles, who should beat the only non-Group A team in the final four.
Our Week 21 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Eagles -6 -108 (5 Units) – Locked in at Bookmaker — Correct; +$500
Eagles 55, Redskins 23
GAME RECAP
Eagles 55, Redskins 23
- The Eagles demolished the Redskins in the first meeting between the teams, but this game initially appeared as though it would play out like the second clash. Jayden Daniels spent the opening drive pecking the Eagles to death with numerous third-down and two fourth-down conversions. Curiously, Wasington settled for a field goal on a fourth-and-short situation in the red zone, but it was able to take a 3-0 lead. This drive, which went 18 plays for seven minutes, and it seemed as though the Redskins wanted to control the time of possession. The Eagles took a different approach, with their first play going the distance, as Saquon Barkley ran 60 yards for a touchdown.
Philadelphia established a 14-3 lead, but the Redskins struck back with a field goal and a touchdown, thanks in part to a fake punt conversion. However, this game turned on Washington’s turnovers. Dyami Brown lost a fumble, and then Jeremy McNichols lost a fumble on a kickoff. The Eagles were able to transform the latter turnover into an A.J. Brown touchdown to go up 27-12.
Though the Eagles led by 12 at halftime, there was some concern with their ability to hold a lead because of injuries to their two centers. Landon Dickerson was knocked out of the game, forcing the injured Cam Jurgens into action. The Eagles went three-and-out on their initial possession in the third quarter, but their ability to force take-aways saved the day once again. Austin Ekeler fumbled, allowing the Eagles to continue to extend their lead. - There was a hilarious moment in this game when the Redskins were flagged for four encroachment penalties in a row while faced with a Philadelphia “tush push” at the goal line. The official warned Washington that he would award Philadelphia a score if it was guilty of the same infraction once again.
- The Redskins’ season has come to an end, but their fans have plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Eighty-seven million reasons, in fact. That’s how much cap space the Redskins have entering this offseason. With $87 million, which is the third-best situation in the NFL, the Redskins can build a juggernaut roster and dominate the NFC for years to come.
2024 NFL Week 22 – Chiefs(15-2) at Eagles(14-3) Eagles +1
Super Bowl LIX NFL Pick: Eagles 23, Chiefs 20
Eagles +1 -107 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Eagles 40, Chiefs 22
Week 21 Analysis: We won five units with the Eagles, but we missed out on a huge week. We nearly hit an 11-leg mega parlay, but lost only because the Travis Kelce receiving yards leg didn’t hit. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:
Eagles, 5 units (win): I wrote ahead of this game that it was a simple handicap. My only worry was Jalen Hurts’ injury, but that turned out to be a non-factor. I tried to middle with the Redskins +10.5 because the Eagles had two centers who were injured, but that turned out to be a mistake.
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I’d like to begin on this side of the ball because that is where we can find the biggest mismatch in this game. That would be the Philadelphia pass rush versus the Chiefs’ beleaguered tackles.
It’s no secret that Kansas City has struggled to block on the edge all year. This was a huge problem against the Texans, which is why Kansas City struggled to move the ball, tallying just 212 net yards of offense in that game. Sure, the Chiefs lost about 30 yards or so on the final drive when they took an intentional safety, but they still wouldn’t have generated 250 net yards of offense. As a reference, the Texans, who had just one viable receiver and had to rely on some bum named J. Wayne, accumulated 336 net yards of offense.
Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter were just too much for the Kansas City tackles to handle. Those tackles were given a reprieve in the AFC Championship because the Bills didn’t provide much edge pressure. That won’t be the case in this game, as Philadelphia is great at hunting the quarterback. There’s even a chance Brandon Graham will return from a long injury hiatus. The Eagles will win the matchups on the edge quite easily unless the Chiefs once again move All-Pro guard Joe Thuney out to left tackle. If they decide to do that, however, Jalen Carter will have a much easier matchup in the interior. The Chiefs are, to quote a Hall of Fame running back, stuck between a rock and a rocky place.
Despite this, I don’t think Patrick Mahomes will be shut out. It would be foolish to believe this. Besides, Mahomes has an edge he can exploit as well, which would be Travis Kelce against Philadelphia’s defense, which has been weak to tight ends this entire playoff run. Kelce did nothing in the AFC Championship, but he’ll rebound with what should be an explosive performance.
Mahomes and Kelce will have to carry the team, as Kansas City won’t get anything out of its rushing attack. The Eagles are No. 1 versus the run and will be able to put the clamps on Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco.
PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles also have a big matchup edge on this side of the ball. If you guessed that would be Saquon Barkley, you would be correct. Barkley has been the best offensive player in the NFL this year in both the regular season and the playoffs. He ripped through the Packer, Ram and Redskin defenses, and he’ll do the same to the Chiefs.
Kansas City has struggled against the run in the playoffs. It began with Joe Mixon, who rushed for 88 yards and a touchdown on just 18 carries in the divisional round. James Cook was even better. He was three yards shy of Mixon’s mark, but was given five fewer attempts. Neither Mixon nor Cook were able to operate much with the lead, but there’s a good chance the Eagles will be able to do so. Regardless, Barkley will be getting 25-plus carries in this game, so he’ll be able to greatly exceed the rushing totals that Mixon and Cook generated.
The Chiefs can’t really focus on Barkley because they’ll be beaten downfield by Philadelphia’s talented receiving duo, as well as Dallas Goedert. Of the three, Goedert has the best matchup. While the Eagles have struggled against tight ends recently, the Chiefs have been far worse all season. In fact, no NFL team has been worse against tight ends this year, and that dates back to Week 1 when Isaiah Likely had a huge performance against Kansas City.
Of course, the Chiefs will also have to worry about Hurts’ mobility. Hurts had an injury question mark heading into the NFC Championship, but he turned out to be just fine. He’ll be even healthier with two weeks off. Kansas City has issues defending mobile quarterbacks, so Hurts will be able to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground.
My only worry with Philadelphia’s offense is that both centers, Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens, are nursing injuries. Jurgens was able to close out the game two weeks ago, but we’ll have to see how the two linemen progress through this week’s practices.
RECAP: I’d say I don’t understand why the Chiefs are favored, but I do. They are the two-time defending champs. They have Mahomes and Andy Reid. They have just one real loss on the year. And they get all the calls. Of course, they’re favored.
And yet, they’re not the better team. The Eagles are superior in almost every way. Going position by position, Philadelphia is either equal or better everywhere, save for two spots: quarterback and head coach. Those two areas obviously matter more than most, but not when it comes to Super Bowl history.
Check out this list. Since 2000, here are how the superior quarterbacks have fared in every Super Bowl:
2000 – Kerry Collins over Trent Dilfer: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2001 – Kurt Warner over Tom Brady: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2002 – Rich Gannon over Brad Johnson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2003 – Tom Brady over Jake Delhomme: Win SU, Loss ATS
2004 – Tom Brady over Donovan McNabb: Win SU, Loss ATS
2005 – (Ben Roethlisberger in second year and Matt Hasselbeck considered even)
2006 – Peyton Manning over Rex Grossman: Win SU, Win ATS
2007 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2008 – (Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner considered even)
2009 – Peyton Manning over Drew Brees: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2010 – Aaron Rodgers over Ben Roethlisberger: Win SU, Win ATS
2011 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2012 – Colin Kaepernick over Joe Flacco: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2013 – Peyton Manning over Russell Wilson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2014 – Tom Brady over Russell Wilson: Win SU, Win ATS
2015 – Cam Newton over Peyton Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2016 – (Tom Brady and Matt Ryan considered even)
2017 – Tom Brady over Nick Foles: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2018 – Tom Brady over Jared Goff: Win SU, Win ATS
2019 – Patrick Mahomes over Jimmy Garoppolo: Win SU, Win ATS
2020 – Patrick Mahomes over Tom Brady: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2021 – (Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow considered even)
2022 – Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts: Win SU, Win ATS
2023 – Patrick Mahomes over Brock Purdy: Win SU, Win ATS
In short, the superior quarterbacks are 9-11 straight up and 7-13 against the spread. I hate trends and will never base one of my picks on one, but the purpose of this is to demonstrate that it’s not a fool-proof plan to just select the better quarterback in a matchup, particularly if it’s the Super Bowl. There’s way more to football than that, and the Eagles have the more talented roster. They also have the two huge matchup edges in this game, with their pass rush against a pair of poor tackles, and Barkley going up against a struggling run defense.
I’m picking the Eagles to win the Super Bowl. I think they will win a close game, but if it’s a blowout like Tampa Bay over Kansas City, that would not shock me either. That game also featured the NFC team being able to demolish Kansas City’s poor blocking. Granted, the Chiefs are far better in the interior now than they were back then, but they still have some major liabilities in that regard.
SUPER BOWL BET HEDGE: I already bet the Eagles to win the Super Bowl back last spring, per my NFL Futures page. I officially have two units on them at 17/1 odds, which allows me to collect 34 units. I also made a third bet on them at 15/1 while I was in Las Vegas when I matched my dad’s wager, though I didn’t document that bet on the site.
Given that I have so much equity in the Eagles already, it would be foolish for me not to hedge or middle with the Chiefs, even if I think Philadelphia will win. Thus, I will be betting the Chiefs +3.5 at -200 vig or so, hoping that Philadelphia prevails by 1-3 points so I can win both wagers. My plan is to bet three or four units on this and then perhaps add more via in-game betting. I will post those in-game bets on this page.
Eagles +1 -107 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Eagles 40, Chiefs 22
GAME RECAP
Eagles 40, Chiefs 22
- The Eagles knew that they would have to battle the two-time defending champions and the officials entering this game. It was apparent that the latter would be involved on the opening drive when a deep A.J. Brown reception was nullified by a horrendous offensive pass interference penalty.
Ultimately, however, the disparity between the two teams made this game too difficult to rig. The Chiefs didn’t even cross midfield until there were two minutes remaining in the third quarter. The reason for this was the same blueprint the 2007 Giants and the 2020 Buccaneers deployed when they beat the Patriots and Chiefs, respectively. They rushed four players with overwhelming pressure and didn’t blitz. That’s not an exaggeration, as they didn’t blitz a single time in this game, preventing Patrick Mahomes from taking advantage of fewer players dropped into coverage.
The two key moments in this game were results of this pressure. The first was when the Eagles were up 10-0. The Chiefs had possession on a drive that was a complete calamity. Mahomes was sacked twice, and on third-and-16, he was intercepted. The pick was returned for six by Cooper DeJean to expand the lead to 17. Mahomes threw a second pick when Josh Sweat, who had 2.5 sacks on the day, beat Joe Thuney and hit Mahomes as he released the ball. Zack Baun made a diving pick to set up an A.J. Brown touchdown.
Philadelphia’s ability to pressure a team with severe offensive line issues was not a surprise. What was shocking was that the Chiefs limited Saquon Barkley to just 57 rushing yards on 25 carries. Jalen Hurts, however, more than made up for it. He scrambled for 72 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts, and he completed all but five of his 22 pass attempts for 221 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Hurts’ best throw was an absolute beauty of a deep ball to DeVonta Smith for a 46-yard touchdown.
The Eagles ultimately went up 40-6. The Chiefs scored two late touchdowns in garbage time to make the final score look closer than the game really was. - The Eagles’ defense had one of the best performances in Super Bowl history, limiting the best quarterback in the NFL to just six points before meaningless late action. They sacked Mahomes six times, which was a career high for the Chief signal-caller.
- The Chiefs’ three-peat was thwarted by their awful offensive line. They need to bolster their horrific blocking this offseason. Here’s a link to the 2025 NFL Draft Offensive Tackle Prospect Rankings.
