Kalshi has gone from niche curiosity to a mainline tool for professional bettors, and Super Bowl LX made that leap impossible to ignore. Sharps who historically built their edge inside the juice and limits of traditional books are increasingly routing volume through exchange-style prediction markets, chasing tighter price discovery, novel prop niches, and faster market-moving signals.
Below we break down how and why this migration happened, what it looked like during the Super Bowl, the operational frictions that surfaced, and how sportsbooks might respond.
The early signal: downloads and attention
The first clear data point arrived in app analytics: Kalshi’s mobile downloads spiked in January, running ahead of the biggest sportsbook apps and signaling user curiosity that went beyond casual window-shopping. That uptick wasn’t small, industry trackers showed Kalshi’s January traction eclipsing combined downloads for two of the largest books, a sign that acquisition momentum centered on prediction markets heading into the Super Bowl.
That trend was flagged earlier in the season in Casino.com’s past reporting on lower sportsbook downloads and rising Kalshi volume, which foreshadowed the January download spike.
Why sharps like the product
For professional bettors, value shows up in three technical characteristics where prediction markets differ from retail books:
- Continuous price discovery — Markets trade like securities, so prices evolve with continuous, visible bids and offers. That order-book transparency helps sharps size positions and spot information asymmetries faster than with a static -110 line.
- Granular props and contract design — Markets for split-second or novelty outcomes (e.g., opening-song, halftime performer, specific in-game events) let pros express very precise views and deploy smaller, high-conviction tickets that are harder to find at a typical sportsbook.
- Reduced structural house edge — Prediction platforms monetize with trading/fees rather than a built-in vigorish, which can produce more neutral pricing and create arbitrage windows for sophisticated traders.
That combination turns prediction markets into a toolbox for both directional bets and information-driven trading — a natural complement to the standard limits-and-liquidity calculus sharps already use. iGamingToday and other outlets observed sharps gravitating to these venues in the lead-up to the Super Bowl.
Case studies: what happened on Super Bowl Sunday
Super Bowl LX provided a real-world stress test. Company- and analyst-reported figures put Kalshi’s Super Bowl–related trading in the high hundreds of millions — with one authoritative estimate showing $871 million on Kalshi alone and combined prediction-market trading with competitors approaching roughly $1.2 billion for the day. That placed prediction markets squarely in the same conversation as regulated sportsbook handle for the event, and it produced sharp, fast moves in winner and novelty contracts that professional traders exploited.
A concrete example: the winner market and novelty props both displayed intense pregame and in-play liquidity, producing short-lived price dislocations sharps could trade around. Meanwhile, an entertainment-market runaway (one song market) registered nine-figure volume, illustrating how non-game markets can dominate headlines and liquidity pools, and become an attractive, high-turnover arena for pros.
Operational pain points: execution and transfers
The explosive demand also revealed frictions. During the surge, some users experienced delayed transfers and deposit credits, a symptom of payments and internal reconciliation systems being pushed to capacity. Kalshi acknowledged delays and assured users funds were safe but taking longer to post — a real operational risk for time-sensitive professional activity where seconds matter. Multiple outlets reported user complaints and company statements confirming the issue.
Those delays matter for sharps: when a transfer posts late, a planned arbitrage or in-play trade can evaporate. Likewise, sudden order-book depth swings and fast-moving rumor trades (on social platforms) created execution risk and temporary slippage that required pros to adapt — using pre-funded accounts, faster rails, or more conservative sizing.
What sportsbooks can — and likely will — do
Incumbent operators are not standing still. Some books have introduced prediction-style products to capture novelty interest; others are experimenting with micro-markets and improved in-play pricing to mimic the continuous discovery that draws pros. But legacy sportsbooks face two hard limits: regulatory complexity (state-by-state rules) and existing risk models that assume a retail customer base rather than a crowd that behaves like a trading desk.
Expect three practical operator responses: tighter limits on identified sharp accounts, in-app feature experiments that replicate some market mechanics (but with operator-managed liquidity), and heavier investment in trading surveillance and market microstructure to protect margin. Observers also noted that prediction markets can attract the very sharps books historically prefer to discourage, creating a competitive tension for sportsbook product teams.
Durable tool or seasonal fad?
Short answer: the Super Bowl didn’t create a permanent migration overnight, but it dramatically accelerated a shift that began months earlier. Downloads and the record trading day showed latent demand for market-style wagering that can scale quickly around marquee events. For sharps, prediction platforms offer useful, differentiated tools: cleaner price discovery, bespoke prop access, and fee structures that sometimes make edge extraction more efficient.
That said, the space must solve for operational robustness, regulatory clarity, and market-abuse controls before it becomes the default primary venue for professional bettors. If those pieces are addressed, prediction markets will likely remain a durable part of the sharp toolkit — not a one-off Super Bowl anomaly.
Practical takeaway
If you’re a professional or semi-pro bettor: treat prediction markets as a complementary venue. Pre-fund accounts to avoid transfer timing risk, watch order-book depth rather than surface prices, and size for greater volatility and slippage in novelty contracts. For those building or covering sportsbook products, the message is plain: the rise of prediction markets has changed where liquidity and attention flow, and that change is worth strategizing around now, not after the next big game.
