Indianapolis Colts Rookies Forecast

By Charlie Campbell – @draftcampbell

Solid Starter

Braden Smith, G, Auburn – Round 2
The offensive line has been a big weakness for the Indianapolis Colts for many years. Franchise quarterback Andrew Luck has taken a beating while the rushing attack has underwhelmed. Colts general manager Chris Ballard made a major commitment to changing the weak offensive line by selecting two guards in the top-40 picks of the 2018 NFL Draft. Smith was the second selection, and while he was not a sexy pick, he is a safe player to develop into a quality starter.

In pass protection, Smith was very reliable for Auburn. He is quick and athletic to block speed rushers with the ability to mirror them. Smith could use more functional strength to handle powerful defensive tackles, but the 6-foot-6, 315-pounder has the size to match up against them. As a run blocker, Smith has good technique to manipulate defenders and is steady to open holes for his back. When he gets his hands on defenders, he stalls them out and keeps the from making plays. Smith is a well-balanced blocker who has a lot of experience and effective play against the top competition in college football.

I think Smith will be emerge as a solid starter early in his NFL career. He is a competitor who should be a perfect fit at right guard next to center Ryan Kelly. Smith and first-round pick Quenton Nelson could form one of the top guard tandems in the NFL, and with Kelly, the Colts have the makings for possessing one of the top interior offensive lines in the league.

2017: Quincy Wilson, CB
2016: Ryan Kelly, C
2015: Henry Anderson, DE
2014: Andrew Jackson, LB
2013: Hugh Thornton, G

Most Likely To Bust

Kemoko Turay, OLB, Rutgers – Round 2
I can safely say that the Colts’ drafting is significantly improved under Chris Ballard. Over the past couple of drafts, it has been harder to select an early-rounder with real bust potential compared to past years when it was easy to see former general manager Ryan Grigson making poor decisions with draft picks. I was torn on Kemoko Turay or Tyquan Lewis. I reached out to sources with other teams for their thoughts, and they felt that Lewis is a solid player but was over-drafted a little bit in the second round. They saw more boom-or-bust potential with Turay.

Turay (6-4, 252) has some quickness and athleticism to rush the passer off the edge. As a senior, he notched four sacks and 58 tackles for Rutgers. Turay definitely needs to get stronger for the NFL, and his run defense could be a real liability. One of the reasons why that issue could persist in the NFL is that Turay had a reputation for poor work ethic and makeup. Other teams were concerned about those problems leading to Turay not panning out as a pro.

For the NFL, Turay would have been a better fit playing outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense. He was drafted into the Colts’ new 4-3 scheme run by defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus. Turay is a bit of a tweener at defensive end/outside linebacker for a 4-3 system. Turay will also have to compete for playing time with a few edge defenders. Jabaal Sheard is the Colts’ best front seven defender. After him, Turay will compete for pass-rushing reps with John Simon and Tarell Basham. Fellow rookie Tyquan Lewis also could factor into competing for pass-rushing reps at defensive end. I think Turay has some bust potential, and of Indianapolis’ early-round selections, he is the player who carries the most risk.

2017: Tarell Basham, DL
2016: Hassan Ridgeway, DT
2015: Clayton Geathers, S
2014: Jack Mewhort, G
2013: Khaled Holmes, C

Potential Boom Pick

Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame – Round 1
This was an easy choice as Nelson has major boom potential for the NFL. The Colts added a plug-and-play starter with Nelson to give them an immediate upgrade to the pass protection for Andrew Luck and run blocking. Early in his NFL career, Nelson could emerge as one of the top left guards, if not the best left guard, in the league.

Nelson is dominant in pass protection, to the point that he almost never gave up a pressure much less a sack. He has a very strong base that stands up bull rushes with ease. He also possesses the athleticism and quick feet to neutralize speed rushers plus the length to keep defenders tied up. With his natural knee bend, Nelson is in great position to mirror rushers and adjust to counters. He used strength to sustain blocks and kept defenders from getting free on second efforts. Nelson also dominated when he helped his tackle or center with a double team.

In the ground game, Nelson is a true road grader with extremely heavy hands. He routinely used his tremendous size and strength to push defensive linemen out of their gaps. Nelson can blast them off the ball and ride defenders around the field like they’re on roller skates. Routinely, you would see him drive block a tackle around the field before burying them with a pancake block. He is a true people mover and a devastating force at the point of attack.

Nelson was probably the safest prospect in the 2018 draft class. He could be a good NFL starter as soon as Week 1 of his rookie year. Some team sources think that Nelson could be the best guard in the NFL early in his pro career and could be better than former Patriots All-Pro Logan Mankins. Some teams have told me they had higher grades on Nelson than they did on Mankins, David DeCastro and Brandon Scherff. If Nelson is able to stay healthy, he could end up having a Hall of Fame career.

2017: Malik Hooker, S
2016: Le’Raven Clark, OT
2015: Philip Dorsett, WR
2014: Donte Moncrief, WR
2013: Bjoern Werner, DE

Future Depth Player

Nyheim Hines, RB, N.C. State – Round 4
For the second straight season, the Colts took a solid backup running back in the fourth round. Perhaps Marlon Mack becomes a three-down starter, but regardless of that, Hines should be a good backup running back for Indianapolis. The Colts could use more running back talent, and Hines is a lightning-bolt play-maker who is extremely fast. The undersized back is a threat to score on any touch with his game-breaking speed. On top of being a rotational runner, Hines also will contribute as a receiver out of the backfield and on special teams as a returner. He doesn’t have the size to be a three-down starter, but he looks like a very dangerous backup running back to rotate into the game with the ability to provide some splash plays. He provides a lot of bang for the buck as a backup running back and depth player.

2017: Marlon Mack, RB
2016: Antonio Morrison, LB
2015: David Parry, DT
2014: John Ulrick, OT
2013: Montori Hughes, DT

Walt’s 2018 NFL Draft Grades:

6. Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame A Grade
There are three non-quarterback blue-chip prospects in this class. Bradley Chubb and Saquon Barkley were the first two. Quenton Nelson is the third. The Colts could have taken Roquan Smith, and I would’ve been fine with it, but Indianapolis absolutely needs to protect Andrew Luck whenever he’s able to come back from injury. Nelson should be ab elite guard in the NFL, and he’ll keep interior rushers from putting heat on Luck.

36. Darius Leonard, LB, South Carolina State B+ Grade
If the first round taught us anything, it’s that talented off-LOS linebackers are in demand right now. The Colts had a chance to select one in Roquan Smith at No. 6 overall, but they selected a better player in Quenton Nelson. Leonard is a nice consolation prize in Round 2. He’s a speedy, productive linebacker who should be able to play all three downs in Indianapolis’ defense.

37. Braden Smith, G, Auburn C Grade
I liked the Colts’ initial two selections thus far, but I’m not a big fan of this one. I don’t hate Braden Smith, or anything, as I thought he could go in the second round. However, some teams had him in the third frame. What bothers me is that the Colts already have three solid guards, so where does Smith fit in?

52. Kemoko Turay, DE, Rutgers C Grade
Kemoko Turay is an athletic edge rusher with great upside, and I think he probably should’ve gone in the third round. I don’t think this is a bad reach, or anything, though I wonder about the fit as well. I thought Turay would be better off in the 3-4, but he’ll have to play in Indianapolis’ new 4-3.

64. Tyquan Lewis, DE, Ohio State C- Grade
I don’t know why the Colts felt that they needed to move up for Tyquan Lewis. The Ohio State product was considered a fourth-round prospect by most reliable sources, so Indianapolis could’ve remained at its spot and selected this prospect. Lewis fills a need, but I’m not a fan of this choice.

104. Nyheim Hines, RB, N.C. State B+ Grade
Nyheim Hines makes sense in this range as a Round 3-4 prospect. He won’t be able to be Indianapolis’ new starting running back, but he’ll be a nice, third-down threat as a very poor man’s Darren Sproles. I like giving Andrew Luck a weapon like this.

159. Daurice Fountain, WR, Northern Iowa A Grade
I like this pick a lot. Daurice Fountain is a quick receiver with solid route-running ability. He was the fastest receiver at the Shrine Game, raising his stock. I thought he could’ve easily gone early in Round 4. I don’t think it’s crazy to think he could start at some point as a rookie.

169. Jordan Wilkins, RB, Ole Miss B Grade
Jordan Wilkins is a solid fifth-round prospect who was productive at Ole Miss. He also has nice receiving ability. Wilkins could be Indianapolis’ starting running back next year, albeit by default, given the lack of talent at the position.

185. Deon Cain, WR, Clemson B Grade
Deon Cain made a huge mistake by declaring. He’s a big name, but he doesn’t do anything particularly well, outside of just run straight downfield. Cain makes sense in the sixth round, and he might fill a need for the Colts if he pans out.

Follow @walterfootball for updates.

221. Matthew Adams, LB, Houston C Grade
Matthew Adams wasn’t really seen as a draftable prospect, but it’s the seventh round, so teams may not have players on their board anymore. I’m not going worse than a “C” in Round 7, so that’s what I’m giving the Colts.

235. Zaire Franklin, LB, Syracuse B+ Grade
This is a nice upside pick in the middle of the seventh round. Zaire Franklin is incredibly athletic, but looks like he hasn’t been coached a day in his life. Perhaps the Colts will be able to mold him into a contributor. It wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up starting one day. It also wouldn’t surprise me if he completely disappeared in six months.

2018 NFL Draft Team Grade: C+ . Follow Walter @walterfootball for updates.

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