By Price Headley, CEO of BigTrends.com:
The second leg of the Triple Crown happens this Saturday at Pimlico racecourse outside Baltimore. Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah is the heavy 4-5 favorite to advance for a shot at the Triple Crown.
The Preakness is 1-3/16 miles (1/16 shorter than the Derby), and the weather should be good Saturday with only a 30 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms. Bob Baffert has won five Preaknesses and is 3-for-3 in the Preakness with Derby winners. At the same time, no horse has won the Preakness from postion position (PP) 1 in 54 years.
I think American Pharoah (PP 1) showed he was clearly the best horse in the Derby, running well wide and still winning handily. So, I think Pharoah does win and the remaining likely question here in my view is who gets second and third. At 4-5 morning line odds, it’s not worth betting Pharoah to win; we need to pair him with other horses to get a decent payoff.
Here’s my assessment:
I think there will be extra speed in the race as both Pharoah and Dortmund (PP 2) drew the inside post positions and have to break quickly to get out of trouble on the rail.
I like a super sleeper here in Tale of Verve (PP 5, 30-1). The horse has shown a very nice closing kick in his last two starts, and I expect him to be charging late. If a speed duel causes a burnout on the front end, this one just might sneak up late to grab the win or at least hit the board.
I like Firing Line (PP 8, 4-1) to be in good stalking position, and I think he has a good shot to pull the upset too.
I haven’t given up on Dortmund (PP 2, 7-2), though at 7-2 odds from the inside, I’m concerned he may have more of a speed battle on his hands that could tire him late.
I also think the local horse Bodhissatva (PP 6, 20-1) could get in the mix late for third.
So here’s my play on a model portfolio:
$10 Win on 5
$10 Exacta Box 1,5,8
$2 Trifecta 1 on top of 2,5,8 on top of 2,5,6,8
Good Luck!
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